Atlanta Hawks 2025 Draft Pick Watch

[exstatic]

If we're talking basketball fit, he would've been a solid option a couple of years ago, he's on a decline and Bucks tried to get rid of him.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6oQ5tGPiJw

I'm not sure CP3 would've approved of Portis. :lol

Giddey? Why would we add another questionable defender with no jumpshot?

Giddey is actually shooting 37.6% on 4 attempts. I think the Spurs would steer clear of a predator after the Primo disaster. What he did with that 16YO was a crime in the state of California, and he’s lucky she only wanted a payout.

[KobesAchilles]

If we're talking basketball fit, he would've been a solid option a couple of years ago, he's on a decline and Bucks tried to get rid of him.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6oQ5tGPiJw

I'm not sure CP3 would've approved of Portis. :lol

Giddey? Why would we add another questionable defender with no jumpshot?
I want IQ for bench players and Giddy isn’t that bad a shooter anymore. He is making almost 38% of his threes and has already made 90 threes this year which would put him second for the Spurs behind Vassell. Also he moves the ball so fluidly and knows how to make plays with the ball for others as well as move without the ball in his hands. Unlike Sochan, Giddy can run an offense and he can actually dribble as well. So meh defender yes, but high IQ, playmaker, good shooter, and knows how to play the game. Perfect Spur

[quentin_compson]

Giddy is suddenly supposed to be a "good shooter"?! I guess he must have turned a corner then ...
This guy was basically unplayable by the second round of last year's playoffs, and unloading him was clearly addition by subtraction for the Thunder. He needs the ball in his hands but simply isn't a good enough offensive player right now to justify this. Could he get better? Sure, he is young enough, but the Spurs already have more than enough of those kinds of players on their roster, in my opinion.

[ambchang]

I will probably be destroyed for this but anyone think wiggins would be a viable option? He makes about $26m this year, $28 next year and $30 in 26-27. Is say that’s much better value than Vassell at $27m each for the next two years.

Wiggins is a few years older but a much better offensive and defensive player. He is still quite athletic and a decent shooter. I’m not sure what would help land him but a Vassell plus protected first, a bunch of seconds may be able to make it work?

[Kevin]

I wouldn't mind Wiggins at all. Good two way player with size.

Wemby
Barnes
Wiggins
Castle
Fox

That lineup has size, defense, can switch all day, attack the hoop and shoot fairly well.

[LeBowen]

Vassell

The first question you have to ask yourself when thinking about any hypothetical trade is if the other team would see Devin as a positive asset.
The only way we're getting rid of him as a positive asset is by trading him to one of the incompetent teams. Heat would have no interest in him.

[Kevin]

The first question you have to ask yourself when thinking about any hypothetical trade is if the other team would see Devin as a positive asset.
The only way we're getting rid of him as a positive asset is by trading him to one of the incompetent teams. Heat would have no interest in him.

Dev's value is probably neutral if we're being honest. I don't see any surplus value with his contract right now.

[LeBowen]

Dev's value is probably neutral if we're being honest. I don't see any surplus value with his contract right now.

He's a shooting guard who doesn't do much else and he's been underperforming this season.
Which team would say he's the player they need? Especially with current cap situation and everyone realizing role players shouldn't be overpaid.

[John B]

I wouldn't mind Wiggins at all. Good two way player with size.

Wemby
Barnes
Wiggins
Castle
Fox

That lineup has size, defense, can switch all day, attack the hoop and shoot fairly well.

Barnes is not the answer against jumbo bigs like Zubac, Jokic, Sengun, Embiid. Either through draft or trade, they need a big body next to Wemby against jumbo bigs, depending on the lineup. Naz Reid, Myles Turner as FA, or from this draft class Queen, Malauch, Sorber, Wolf.

[LeBowen]

Barnes is not the answer against jumbo bigs like Zubac, Jokic, Sengun, Embiid. Either through draft or trade, they need a big body next to Wemby against jumbo bigs, depending on the lineup. Naz Reid, Myles Turner as FA, or from this draft class Queen, Malauch, Sorber, Wolf.

That would just enable those bigs to have an easy matchup on the other end instead of Wemby torching them.
We need a big wing for PF position, not an actual big.

[CGD]

I will probably be destroyed for this but anyone think wiggins would be a viable option? He makes about $26m this year, $28 next year and $30 in 26-27. Is say that’s much better value than Vassell at $27m each for the next two years.

Wiggins is a few years older but a much better offensive and defensive player. He is still quite athletic and a decent shooter. I’m not sure what would help land him but a Vassell plus protected first, a bunch of seconds may be able to make it work?

I think you’re trolling, but if not it’s a hard pass.

Miami is one of those teams desperate to clear space for the 2026 class of FAs which includes Giannis and Luka (though maybe the Laker heist changes that?). Other teams know that, so I suspect they’ll have to attach assets just to get off Wiggins.

[onechance87]

That would just enable those bigs to have an easy matchup on the other end instead of Wemby torching them.
We need a big wing for PF position, not an actual big.

no we need an a real big after wemby.

[LeBowen]

no we need an a real big after wemby.

We need a big after Wemby, not next to Wemby.

[The Truth #6]

He's a shooting guard who doesn't do much else and he's been underperforming this season.
Which team would say he's the player they need? Especially with current cap situation and everyone realizing role players shouldn't be overpaid.

Does Phoenix know this?

[scott]

I'd want to swap Vassell for Wiggins simply for fit purposes. Vassell is a SG masquerading as a SF, whereas Wiggins is a legit SF with 2+ inches on Devin. Much closer to the 3&D wing we need (though Wiggins can do a little more than just 3&D).

If not for the idea of MIA trying to clear cap space, I don't think we'd have to give up anything additional in this swap. In fact, might even be able to net a few SRPs attached coming back to us. I'd be down for this, but I'm not sure MIA would.

[onechance87]

of course hawks get to face warriors without curry who just got injured.Everything going atl way lately

[CGD]

I'd want to swap Vassell for Wiggins simply for fit purposes. Vassell is a SG masquerading as a SF, whereas Wiggins is a legit SF with 2+ inches on Devin. Much closer to the 3&D wing we need (though Wiggins can do a little more than just 3&D).

If not for the idea of MIA trying to clear cap space, I don't think we'd have to give up anything additional in this swap. In fact, might even be able to net a few SRPs attached coming back to us. I'd be down for this, but I'm not sure MIA would.

Don’t disagree with swapping Dev, but I see the need differently. If you assume Fox and Steph are the backcourt of the future we desperately need more consistent shooting out of the other wing positions. It is why I’m not completely out on a KD for Dev plus parts swap.

[ismael-robert]

If they don't improve over summer thats not gonna be good shooting backcourt. They're two slashers

[spursistan]

Really wondering how high can the Spurs jump up in the draft with a combo of, say, 8th (own) and 16th (ATL) picks? And who would be the trade partner? Realistically, at best, a couple of spots with Brooklyn and Toronto as the most likely team with which they arrange a draft night trade if they specifically like someone. Maybe if the Hawks pick drop to the 10-12 pick range, they get can get a spot higher, but it is really difficult to see any team trading a Top 5 pick this draft.

[John B]

With AD back, Mavs are winning and should compete against Hawks in the Win column. Atlanta in 15th place. I can’t believe myself but, Go Mavs!

[mystargtr34]

Bulls and Heat can still catch Hawks too and make them have to win two playin games. Unlikely but possible.

[BackHome]

I think Heat don't have their first pick so definitely reason not to tank

[LeBowen]

I think Heat don't have their first pick so definitely reason not to tank

It's lottery protected.

[exstatic]

It's lottery protected.

Next year, it’s unprotected, so maybe get out of the lottery and convey a 15+ pick in case of some disastrous injury luck next year.

Oh, and OKC would be the recipient.

[LeBowen]

I wouldn't be so sure about Cavs coasting in a series against the Hawks, tbh. :lol

[mystargtr34]

Giannis needs to get the fuck out Milwaukee this off-season. They are going downhill fast with an aging Lopez, Lillard will be 35 this year etc.

[baseline bum]

Giannis needs to get the fuck out Milwaukee this off-season. They are going downhill fast with an aging Lopez, Lillard will be 35 this year etc.

Throw in the ATL 2025 too

https://i.ibb.co/Rkj1R6Sy/trade.jpg

Best part is Hollinger says it'll cost us 15 wins so we can tank for AJ Dybantsa too

[BackHome]

Dang Rich with 36pts against the Bucks tonight got them the win

[John B]

Giannis needs to get the fuck out Milwaukee this off-season. They are going downhill fast with an aging Lopez, Lillard will be 35 this year etc.

Wasn’t it too long ago when he threatened to leave if the Bucks don’t bring help. And Wemby’s co-runner seems starting to be the preferred destination.

[ace3g]

End of 3rd





1
2
3
4
T


ATL
34
38
24

96


DAL
32
35
34

101

[ace3g]

4:47 - 4th





1
2
3
4
T


ATL
34
38
24
14
110


DAL
32
35
34
12
113

[ace3g]

1:46 - 4th





1
2
3
4
T


ATL
34
38
24
22
118


DAL
32
35
34
14
115

[ace3g]

Thank you Anthony Davis

Final





1
2
3
4
T


ATL
34
38
24
22
118


DAL
32
35
34
19
120

[BatManu20]

Mavs win a close one. AD hits the game-winner with 3 seconds left. Nice.

[exstatic]

Mavs win a close one. AD hits the game-winner with 3 seconds left. Nice.

More importantly, the tiny inefficient chucker misses a 25 foot fadeaway three with 1 second remaining. They had 3 seconds when they inbounded, and could have gone for 2.

[mystargtr34]

I watched about 3 minutes of yesterdays Hawks Blazers game. In that 3 minutes I saw Trae Young do the following:

Draw a bullshit foul on Camara using a rip through move 30 feet from the basket.

Draw a bullshit foul on Camara driving to the basket and jump in g backwards and sideways into Camara directly under the basket.

Flail and flop around on another drive to the basket with a defender on his back.

Thank god this guy isn’t on the Spurs.

[exstatic]

Oh, and Miami is one game back, and on a six game heater. ATL also has two games left in their last 5 against Orlando.

Wouldn’t it be ironic if ATL dropped back into the lottery, and pushed Sacto into the top 12, depriving themselves of that pick?

[Knoxxx]

9 POR (games behind below)
10 CHI (1/2)
11 MIA (1)
12 PHO (1.5)
13 ATL (2.5)
13 SAC (2.5)
15 ORL (3.5)
16 DAL (4)

Can the Spurs thread the needle again and see the ATL pick land in the 9-11 range?

[Knoxxx]

Oh, and Miami is one game back, and on a six game heater. ATL also has two games left in their last 5 against Orlando.

Wouldn’t it be ironic if ATL dropped back into the lottery, and pushed Sacto into the top 12, depriving themselves of that pick?

Anything can happen at this point, though as I recall ATL had some easy potential wins aka PHI, BRK.

[exstatic]

Anything can happen at this point, though as I recall ATL had some easy potential wins aka PHI, BRK.

They also play Orlando twice, and you know they’re going to want to shut that shit down, and lock down 7th. If things stay as they are, I think the winner of CHI/MIA has a decent chance to beat ATL in the play in, knocking them back into the lottery that way. Both teams are 6-4 in the last 10, compared to ATL’s 4-6.

[Splits]

Heat are so unpredictable. Went to the finals as an 8 seed/play-in 2 years ago, ousted as an 8 seed/play-in last year in the first round. Lost 10 straight followed by 6 straight wins followed by a loss the other night. Impossible to predict their season

[Seventyniner]

Heat are so unpredictable. Went to the finals as an 8 seed/play-in 2 years ago, ousted as an 8 seed/play-in last year in the first round. Lost 10 straight followed by 6 straight wins followed by a loss the other night. Impossible to predict their season

Just gotta hope they get hot in the play-in tournament.

[Splits]

Looking only at tiebreak scenarios for ATL, as there is decent chance that ATL will finish with the same record as one of CHI/MIA/ORL, the tie-breaker for seeding is H2H, division record, conference record.

Those 2 ATL-ORL games most likely decide where ATL lands

Scenario 1: ATL wins both
Wins tiebreaker with ORL (3-1 H2H) and jumps to 7

Scenario 2: ATL splits
Drops tiebreaker to ORL and stays at 8 (H2H tied, ORL wins division record)
Wins tiebreaker with CHI and stays at 8 (H2H tied, ATL wins conference record vs CHI)
Drops tiebreaker to MIA and drops to 9 (H2H tied, MIA wins division record 11-5 vs 10-6 assuming MIA beats WAS)

Scenario 3: ATL loses both
Drops tiebreaker to ORL and stays at 8 (ORL wins H2H)
Wins tiebreaker with CHI and stays at 8 (H2H tied, ATL most likely still wins conference record vs CHI as they are 3 games ahead right now)
Drops tiebreaker to MIA and drops to 9 (H2H tied, MIA wins division record)

So since MIA has a better chance of winning the tiebreaker if ATL drops one or both with ORL, and currently MIA/CHI are tied in the standings, we should be rooting for MIA win @CHI in their matchup this Thursday (both teams only have one other competitive game MIAvMIL and CHI@CLE)

[John B]

They also play Orlando twice, and you know they’re going to want to shut that shit down, and lock down 7th. If things stay as they are, I think the winner of CHI/MIA has a decent chance to beat ATL in the play in, knocking them back into the lottery that way. Both teams are 6-4 in the last 10, compared to ATL’s 4-6.

What is the rule on this draft seed? When DAL and SAC have better records, but in a different conference (9th and 10th) while ATL is at 8th. And the result of the play-in knocking a team off a playoff spot supersede the final record? So ultimately it’s who missed the playoffs who gets to be in the lottery? Then from there they determine the draft order from conference standings or team records?

[exstatic]

What is the rule on this draft seed? When DAL and SAC have better records, but in a different conference (9th and 10th) while ATL is at 8th. And the result of the play-in knocking a team off a playoff spot supersede the final record? So ultimately it’s who missed the playoffs who gets to be in the lottery? Then from there they determine the draft order from conference standings or team records?

Draft positions are resolved, post lottery, and are done strictly by record. Conference positions across conferences don’t matter.

[Splits]

What is the rule on this draft seed? When DAL and SAC have better records, but in a different conference (9th and 10th) while ATL is at 8th. And the result of the play-in knocking a team off a playoff spot supersede the final record? So ultimately it’s who missed the playoffs who gets to be in the lottery? Then from there they determine the draft order from conference standings or team records?

There are 30 teams, 16 make the playoffs 14 are in the lottery. Spots 1-14 pre-lottery are based on final record.

[John B]

There are 30 teams, 16 make the playoffs 14 are in the lottery. Spots 1-14 pre-lottery are based on final record.

I keep on looking at Tankathon and ATL (Spurs pick) outside the lottery despite having a worst record than DAL and SAC

[Mal]

I keep on looking at Tankathon and ATL (Spurs pick) outside the lottery despite having a worst record than DAL and SAC

Tankathon just assume 7-8 in each standings wins play-in and are in playoffs, hence out of lottery

[Splits]

Tankathon just assume 7-8 in each standings wins play-in and are in playoffs, hence out of lottery

correct. it is pretty safe to assume that, unless Hawks make a run these last 6 games, if they lose the play-in they will have a worse record than the 2 Western conference play-in losers and would be at 12

[exstatic]

I keep on looking at Tankathon and ATL (Spurs pick) outside the lottery despite having a worst record than DAL and SAC

1-8 in each conference is out of the lottery, regardless of the records of teams on the other conference. The conferences have been imbalanced for years, even decades, with WC teams with better record in the lottery over EC playoff teams with worse records. That leads to further imbalance.

[exstatic]

Tankathon just assume 7-8 in each standings wins play-in and are in playoffs, hence out of lottery

They’ll update it after the play in, and again after the lottery.

[Splits]

hoping Fatson is back in the starting lineup in 2 hours and the Knicks take care of business

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Draft positions are resolved, post lottery, and are done strictly by record. Conference positions across conferences don’t matter.

True. Also has to be noted that head to head records don’t matter for draft positions - if two or more teams have the same record then it’s a coin flip regardless of standings order.

[John B]

correct. it is pretty safe to assume that, unless Hawks make a run these last 6 games, if they lose the play-in they will have a worse record than the 2 Western conference play-in losers and would be at 12

So the best possible for ATL pick is 12 with 9.9% chance at top 4!

Queen has skyrocketed to top 5 in some mock drafts. While Sorber, MCB can still be at play at 12. Wolf will be there and to me is still a great pick as discussed above (and they can even trade down). I prefer legit PF/C over skinny 6-9ish who can’t help Wemby against strong bigs.

[Splits]

So the best possible for ATL pick is 12 with 9.9% chance at top 4!


if they are in the lottery best possible is 9 if they don't win again and fall behind POR/PHO, most likely is 12 followed by 11.

[John B]

if they are in the lottery best possible is 9 if they don't win again and fall behind POR/PHO, most likely is 12 followed by 11.

That Dejounte trade would give Wright that out-of-jail card every time.

[Mal]

They’ll update it after the play in, and again after the lottery.

But right now they have to add some assumption, to make whole simulation working.

[Splits]

shit

1908580316220186839

[BackHome]

I would not be surprised if Hawks win all there remanning games as they are all against Tanking teams

[exstatic]

But right now they have to add some assumption, to make whole simulation working.

Not really an assumption. They are just putting the teams where they are RIGHT NOW, no assumptions. That’s their ranking, and it will be updated for the play in AT THAT MOMENT, and after the lottery for the final draft order. No assumptions, just a series of snapshots at periods of time.

[exstatic]

I would not be surprised if Hawks win all there remanning games as they are all against Tanking teams

New York, and Orlando X 2 are not tanking teams. That’s half their remaining schedule. Orlando will be trying to seriously kick Hawk ass twice to keep their #7 position away from ATL.

[TXstbobcat]

Knicks helping us out today up big in the 1st half

[CGD]

Knicks helping us out today up big in the 1st half

Hopefully Miami can pull out a win tonight too.

[rascal]

Knicks helping us out today up big in the 1st half

After this game Atlanta has a soft schedule. Orlando 2x but probably will get a split with them.

[exstatic]

After this game Atlanta has a soft schedule. Orlando 2x but probably will get a split with them.

Orlando is going to want to KO them and lock up #7 tightly. Magic’s other two are NYK and BOS, so they may need both.

[rascal]

Orlando is going to want to KO them and lock up #7 tightly. Magic’s other two are NYK and BOS, so they may need both.

Atlanta has an easier path/ Orlando has to take both games

[LeBowen]

Celtics will rest at least some of their starters and take it easy.

[exstatic]

Atlanta has an easier path

Orlando is ahead by 2 in the win column, with two more games played than ATL. If they beat ATL twice,they lock them out of 7th.

[rascal]

Orlando is ahead by 2 in the win column, with two more games played. If they beat ATL twice,they lock them out of 7th.

It isn't going to be easy to beat them twice

[exstatic]

It isn't going to be easy to beat them twice

If this were January, sure. It’s April, and a dog fight for play in home court, though. I think the better team prevails in this case, and that’s Orlando, by virtue of their defense.

[mo7888]

If this were January, sure. It’s April, and a dog fight for play in home court, though. I think the better team prevails in this case, and that’s Orlando, by virtue of their defense.

It looks to me like Atlanta finishes 8 or 9. I've predicted them to finish 9 most all season. I've still got a decent shot at that prediction..

[Splits]

It isn't going to be easy to beat them twice

With today's loss to NYK, only way for ATL to move to 7th on a split is for them to win their other 3 games and ORL to lose their other 2. Not impossible but advantage ORL unless they lose both to ATL

[Splits]

Thank you New York Knicks.

Damn that MIL@MIA game tonight is consequential, current line is MIA -1.5

[spurraider21]

Thank you New York Knicks.

Damn that MIL@MIA game tonight is consequential, current line is MIA -1.5
that Ja buzzer beater is gonna haunt us

[Splits]

that Ja buzzer beater is gonna haunt us

the 10 game losing streak a few weeks ago too

[rascal]

Celtics will rest at least some of their starters and take it easy.

If it were the last game of the season there would be a better chance for that but it isn't.

[spurraider21]

the 10 game losing streak a few weeks ago too
that was before they pulled a vassell and turned the corner

[onechance87]

herro out for miami....pussy

[Ice009]

Why is he out?

[Splits]

slo mo

[Splits]

bucks beating heat basically solidifies ATL in the 8

fuck

[Death In June]

I still think a 7th seed Orlando beats them and a 9th seed bulls gets one over as well.

[onechance87]

Would be huge if some how atl loses today against jazz.

[Seventyniner]

The Jazz don't have any reason to tank anymore. They have already locked up a bottom 3 record.

[exstatic]

The Jazz don't have any reason to tank anymore. They have already locked up a bottom 3 record.

They cannot be rewarded for this. They shut down multiple key players every game, and have been fined for it. Lottery gods, please knock their asses back to #5.

[LeBowen]

They cannot be rewarded for this. They shut down multiple key players every game, and have been fined for it. Lottery gods, please knock their asses back to #5.

This is their first season ever with more than 60 losses. They were the last team that never lost 60 games.
They never had the first pick.

Pelicans have had their share of first picks and did nothing.
Hornets are arguably the worst franchise in the league.
Wizards are arguably the most irrelevant franchise in the league.
I don't want Sixers to get bailed out.

The Great White Hope is going to the Mormons, tbh.

[onechance87]

cavs are pathetic....fake ass team.

[CGD]

This is their first season ever with more than 60 losses. They were the last team that never lost 60 games.
They never had the first pick.

Pelicans have had their share of first picks and did nothing.
Hornets are arguably the worst franchise in the league.
Wizards are arguably the most irrelevant franchise in the league.
I don't want Sixers to get bailed out.

The Great White Hope is going to the Mormons, tbh.

If the spurs don’t get Cooper, I really want it to go to the Wizards. Desperate to have good pro ball in my backyard.

[Knoxxx]

At least ATL lost to ORL and they have a back to back before their finale v ORL. They could lose 2 of 3 and end up at the 11 lotto seed outright or via coin flip.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Let’s hope Brooklyn and Philly show some fight. They’re very much locked in their lottery positions, so they won’t need to tank the games against Atlanta.

[Knoxxx]

ORL blowing out BOS who is resting their starters what a gift!

[Frenchfred]

At least ATL lost to ORL and they have a back to back before their finale v ORL. They could lose 2 of 3 and end up at the 11 lotto seed outright or via coin flip.

that would be nice, giving us another 8.5% chance at a top4 pick

[Ditty]

Thank you, Boston!

Need Miami to pull through as their last two games are cake walks.

ATL would need to win their last three games to stay as the 8th seed.

[spurraider21]

chicago's last 2 games are cake wins as well. but would require ATL to lose 2 out of 3 for chicago to get past them

hopefully miami can rally back though... miami choking against memphis and milwaukee in b2b games really fucked em

[Death In June]

Does anyone know who would have better lotto odds between Toronto and SA, should they finish with the same record?

[tonight...you]

Does anyone know who would have better lotto odds between Toronto and SA, should they finish with the same record?
Coin toss. Literally. A coin toss.

Just like when Houston and the Spurs tied for the Wemby sweepstakes and the Rockets won the toss.

[CorrectCrusader]

Does anyone know who would have better lotto odds between Toronto and SA, should they finish with the same record?

A coin is flipped for the better odds

[Ditty]

With the Bulls win unless ATL chokes two of their next three games the Hawks are going to be the 8th seed.

ORL will probably rest their starters the final game. Going to be an interesting week and play in games!

[Splits]

Looking only at tiebreak scenarios for ATL, as there is decent chance that ATL will finish with the same record as one of CHI/MIA/ORL, the tie-breaker for seeding is H2H, division record, conference record.

Those 2 ATL-ORL games most likely decide where ATL lands

Scenario 1: ATL wins both
Wins tiebreaker with ORL (3-1 H2H) and jumps to 7

Scenario 2: ATL splits
Drops tiebreaker to ORL and stays at 8 (H2H tied, ORL wins division record)
Wins tiebreaker with CHI and stays at 8 (H2H tied, ATL wins conference record vs CHI)
Drops tiebreaker to MIA and drops to 9 (H2H tied, MIA wins division record 11-5 vs 10-6 assuming MIA beats WAS)

Scenario 3: ATL loses both
Drops tiebreaker to ORL and stays at 8 (ORL wins H2H)
Wins tiebreaker with CHI and stays at 8 (H2H tied, ATL most likely still wins conference record vs CHI as they are 3 games ahead right now)
Drops tiebreaker to MIA and drops to 9 (H2H tied, MIA wins division record)

So since MIA has a better chance of winning the tiebreaker if ATL drops one or both with ORL, and currently MIA/CHI are tied in the standings, we should be rooting for MIA win @CHI in their matchup this Thursday (both teams only have one other competitive game MIAvMIL and CHI@CLE)

CHI wins a tiebreaker for playin seeding

[spurraider21]

playoff tiebreak from the NBA's website.

assuming we have a 2-way tie between the Hawks and Bulls

1) head to head record. they are 2-2, so this will not apply
2) division winner will be ahead of a non-division winner. magic won the southeast, so this will not apply
3) IF in the same division, divison record. they are not in the same division, so this will not apply
4) conference record. Hawks conference record is currently 27-22 with 3 games left. Bulls are 26-24 with 2 games left.

therefore even if bulls win out, hawks will have to drop 2 of 3 to not own this tieabreaker over the bulls. but in this scenario, bulls just have a better record anyway

[spurraider21]

however

if we wind up with a 3 way tie between ATL/CHI/MIA

then the tiebreakers would be:

1) division winner will trump non division winner. none of these teams will have won their division, so doesnt apply
2) W/L against the 3 teams involved in the tie. Hawks/Bulls split 2-2. Hawks/Heat split 2-2. However, Bulls swept the Heat 3-0. so Bulls would win the 3-team tiebreak and push ATL/MIA into the lower play-in bracket

but again, this would require the hawks to lose twice

[scott]

however

if we wind up with a 3 way tie between ATL/CHI/MIA

then the tiebreakers would be:

1) division winner will trump non division winner. none of these teams will have won their division, so doesnt apply
2) W/L against the 3 teams involved in the tie. Hawks/Bulls split 2-2. Hawks/Heat split 2-2. However, Bulls swept the Heat 3-0. so Bulls would win the 3-team tiebreak and push ATL/MIA into the lower play-in bracket

but again, this would require the hawks to lose twice

Seems pretty safe to say at this point that we're getting 8 and 12 or 8 and 15. I'm feeling pretty confident we'll take care of business and secure the L against Phoenix.

[mudyez]

What is the Sac/Atl tiebreaker again?

[rascal]

Seems pretty safe to say at this point that we're getting 8 and 12 or 8 and 15. I'm feeling pretty confident we'll take care of business and secure the L against Phoenix.

Good call

I liked the chances that the Spurs were going to tank the game when I saw Vassell and Johnson both out with left ankle soreness. Mitch was going to play a losing lineup.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

We have to root for Oralndo, Dallas and Sacramento on the last day. Chicago can tie Atlanta too, giving us a coinflip chance.

All of this would only matter if Atlanta don't make it out of the play-in though.

[Ditty]

So best case scenario is Heat beating both the Bulls and Hawks in the play in.

Bulls and Hawks having a coin flip for the 11th pick?

[jiggy_55]

So best case scenario is Heat beating both the Bulls and Hawks in the play in.

Bulls and Hawks having a coin flip for the 11th pick?
Bulls and Hawks would have to have the same record which they don’t right now. If Hawks lose last game and the Bulls win then your scenario is right. But there’s also the Kings and Mavs who can potentially all have the same record as the hawks. I guess all tied teams heading into the lottery go to coin flips?
I believe the most likely scenario is a coin flip but it would be for the 12th pick and not the 11th pick.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Best case scenario -

The Kangs and Nicos are going 39-43 for sure..in the West.

Orlando beat Atlanta in the final game meaning they finish 7 and 8 in any case with Atlanta finishing 39-43. Chicago finishes 39-43 too, but lose to Miami in the play in who go on to beat Atlanta.

That would mean a four way tie between Kangs, Nicos, Hawks and Bulls which gives the Spurs a chance that the Hawks land up with the 11th pick.

[jiggy_55]

Best case scenario -

The Kangs and Nicos are going 39-43 for sure..in the West.

Orlando beat Atlanta in the final game meaning they finish 7 and 8 in any case with Atlanta finishing 39-43. Chicago finishes 39-43 too, but lose to Miami in the play in who go on to beat Atlanta.

That would mean a four way tie between Kangs, Nicos, Hawks and Bulls which gives the Spurs a chance that the Hawks land up with the 11th pick.

Kings and Mavs aren't guaranteed to lose last game

[Spursfanfromafar]

Kings and Mavs aren't guaranteed to lose last game

Memphis will go for the win against Dallas while Sacramento has a better incentive to lose and keep their draft pick than to fight for home court for one game against Dallas in the play in. The Kangs take on the Suns who will want to go some sort of a high.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Memphis will go for the win against Dallas while Sacramento has a better incentive to lose and keep their draft pick than to fight for home court for one game against Dallas in the play in. The Kangs take on the Suns who will want to go some sort of a high.

I doubt Sacramento see it this way. They want to make the playoffs and in order to do so they need to be well positioned. Doubt they sit their players and throw the last game. They may still lose, mind, but not because they’ll be thinking of whether they win coin flips to possibly keep their pick this year.

[exstatic]

Memphis will go for the win against Dallas while Sacramento has a better incentive to lose and keep their draft pick than to fight for home court for one game against Dallas in the play in. The Kangs take on the Suns who will want to go some sort of a high.
That’s been the case for a month, and they don’t seem interested in keeping it.

[Spursfanfromafar]

That’s been the case for a month, and they don’t seem interested in keeping it.

Their priority was to get into the play-in and if possible in the playoffs. They have achieved the first and a loss in the last game doesn't prevent them from a chance to make the playoffs. But a loss in the last game also helps them indemnify themselves by giving them the possibility of getting the 12th pick or 11th (there is a chance) if they dont make the playoffs. So, I think there is a rational chance that they rest their key players for Game 82 or go it slow.

[onechance87]

Their priority was to get into the play-in and if possible in the playoffs. They have achieved the first and a loss in the last game doesn't prevent them from a chance to make the playoffs. But a loss in the last game also helps them indemnify themselves by giving them the possibility of getting the 12th pick or 11th (there is a chance) if they dont make the playoffs. So, I think there is a rational chance that they rest their key players for Game 82 or go it slow.

lets hope

[exstatic]

Their priority was to get into the play-in and if possible in the playoffs. They have achieved the first and a loss in the last game doesn't prevent them from a chance to make the playoffs. But a loss in the last game also helps them indemnify themselves by giving them the possibility of getting the 12th pick or 11th (there is a chance) if they dont make the playoffs. So, I think there is a rational chance that they rest their key players for Game 82 or go it slow.

Phoenix was plummeting, and if you look at the standings, Sacto had zero chance to even get to #8. They were and are going to be 9 or 10, and it was completely safe for them to dump a few games to get inside their pick’s protected zone. They didn’t do that.

[Knoxxx]

If ATL loses tomorrow what is the pick range the Spurs get from them?

[exstatic]

If ATL loses tomorrow what is the pick range the Spurs get from them?

Well, there is the 7/8 play in game, and if they lose that, which I think they will, then they play the winner of the 9/10 play in game. If they lose that, it would still depend on everything else that happens tomorrow, since so many teams have close or identical records.

If they win the 7/8 play in: 16 if #7 also loses to the 9/10 winner, and causes a lottery team to make the playoffs. 15 if #7 beats the 9/10 winner

If they lose the 7/8 play in, but beat the 9/10 play in winner: 15

If they lose both play in games: probably 12/13, depending on stuff that happens tomorrow. A lot of standings shuffling can happen with just one day’s games. The picture becomes much clearer after all games complete tomorrow.

[TXstbobcat]

I am guessing that they use their own pick this year and trade the Atlanta pick for a future pick down the road. Don’t think they will use both pics and have two more rookies on the roster next year. The only way I think the Spurs use both pics is if someone they have high on their board falls to the Atlantic pick.

[Russ]

Here's a trivia question for you.

All the NBA games tomorrow are at 1:00 pm Eastern time or 3:30 pm Eastern.

The apparent purpose is to force the teams in contention to play "blindfolded" to the strategic possibilities of winning (or deliberately losing) games on the last day of the season.

So you would expect that all the Eastern Conference games would be at the earlier time and all the Western Conference games would be at the later time.

And you would be right.

Except for one game.

There is but one game between Eastern and Western Conference teams tomorrow.

And it is . . .

Our San Antonio Spurs against the Toronto Raptors.

Make of it what you will.

[rascal]

Here's a trivia question for you.

All the NBA games tomorrow are at 1:00 pm Eastern time or 3:30 pm Eastern.

The apparent purpose is to force the teams in contention to play "blindfolded" to the strategic possibilities of winning (or deliberately losing) games on the last day of the season.

So you would expect that all the Eastern Conference games would be at the earlier time and all the Western Conference games would be at the later time.

And you would be right.

Except for one game.

There is but one game between Eastern and Western Conference teams tomorrow.

And it is . . .

Our San Antonio Spurs against the Toronto Raptors.

Make of it what you will.

Coincidence

There had to be one game between teams from different conferences since there are 15 teams in each conference.

[scott]

Here's a trivia question for you.

All the NBA games tomorrow are at 1:00 pm Eastern time or 3:30 pm Eastern.

The apparent purpose is to force the teams in contention to play "blindfolded" to the strategic possibilities of winning (or deliberately losing) games on the last day of the season.

So you would expect that all the Eastern Conference games would be at the earlier time and all the Western Conference games would be at the later time.

And you would be right.

Except for one game.

There is but one game between Eastern and Western Conference teams tomorrow.

And it is . . .

Our San Antonio Spurs against the Toronto Raptors.

Make of it what you will.

Script writers knew this game would be inconsequential.

[mystargtr34]

Will be interesting to see what the NBA creative writers have in store for us these playoffs.

The warriors (Steph) are like prime John Cena, every casual fan loves him especially the little kiddies so he’s a money making machine revenue wise. Need to ensure all the moving screens and blocking by Draymond and co. Goes uncalled like it has since 2013.

LeBron and Luka’s Lakers are like prime Stone Cold. Revenue machine as well.

The Nuggets are like prime Undertaker. Not really exciting but scary and dangerous.

Celtics are the Rock. Almost as big a star as Stone Cold.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Here's a trivia question for you.

All the NBA games tomorrow are at 1:00 pm Eastern time or 3:30 pm Eastern.

The apparent purpose is to force the teams in contention to play "blindfolded" to the strategic possibilities of winning (or deliberately losing) games on the last day of the season.

So you would expect that all the Eastern Conference games would be at the earlier time and all the Western Conference games would be at the later time.

And you would be right.

Except for one game.

There is but one game between Eastern and Western Conference teams tomorrow.

And it is . . .

Our San Antonio Spurs against the Toronto Raptors.

Make of it what you will.

It was the same last year on the final day - Spurs played Detroit.

There's no way to schedule only eastern conference and only western conference games on the final day due to the odd number of teams in the conferences.

[CGD]

Here's a trivia question for you.

All the NBA games tomorrow are at 1:00 pm Eastern time or 3:30 pm Eastern.

The apparent purpose is to force the teams in contention to play "blindfolded" to the strategic possibilities of winning (or deliberately losing) games on the last day of the season.

So you would expect that all the Eastern Conference games would be at the earlier time and all the Western Conference games would be at the later time.

And you would be right.

Except for one game.

There is but one game between Eastern and Western Conference teams tomorrow.

And it is . . .

Our San Antonio Spurs against the Toronto Raptors.

Make of it what you will.

15 teams in each conference, so it has to happen.

[objective]

2nd best player missed over half the season. Then the starting center misses 1/3rd of the season.

Still finishes in the top 8.

Is it obvious yet that they're not a bad team? 26 swap is make believe at this point

[Mr. Body]

2nd best player missed over half the season. Then the starting center misses 1/3rd of the season.

Still finishes in the top 8.

Is it obvious yet that they're not a bad team? 26 swap is make believe at this point

Are you talking about Atl? They wouldn't sniff the playoffs in the WC.

[mo7888]

2nd best player missed over half the season. Then the starting center misses 1/3rd of the season.

Still finishes in the top 8.

Is it obvious yet that they're not a bad team? 26 swap is make believe at this point

They're the 8th seed...most of us had them pegged at #9.... that's pretty good analysis. They are who we thought they are..

[montgod]

2nd best player missed over half the season. Then the starting center misses 1/3rd of the season.

Still finishes in the top 8.

Is it obvious yet that they're not a bad team? 26 swap is make believe at this point

Yeah, I can't see them being any worse next year with Jalen returning unless they trade Trae. ZR and Daniels will have a yr under their belt and should improve. Capella, Mann, and Levert could return or be replaced, but not much of an impact either way.

[BackHome]

Yeah, and they getting Kings pick right?

[couchman]

Trae is a tremendous floor raiser and they have good coaching.
Unless Trae gets hurt our Spurs will need some improvements to be better than ATL next year.

[spurraider21]

Yeah, and they getting Kings pick right?
Yep kings pick in the teens then lakers pick in 20s

[LeBowen]

Trae is a tremendous floor raiser and they have good coaching.
Unless Trae gets hurt our Spurs will need some improvements to be better than ATL next year.

Spurs finished with just 6 less wins in a way stronger conference, while throwing some games to secure a better draft position.
You think Hawks are better than Spurs with Wemby and Fox? Even if Mitch is coaching.

[couchman]

If both teams stay health, we get Wemby back annd they get Johnson back, and we have Pop or Mitch, then we are probably better but not by a lot.
Off-season moves will matter a lot, including coaching.
Do we sign anyone useful? Do we draft well? Do they draft well?

[BacktoBasics]

So where are we at with this?

Best case 13 worst case 16?

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Spurs finished with just 6 less wins in a way stronger conference, while throwing some games to secure a better draft position.
You think Hawks are better than Spurs with Wemby and Fox? Even if Mitch is coaching.

You got it. There is not way Hawks will be better than Spurs next year, unless injuries happen to Spurs Again. Spurs will likely be a top 4 in the west.

[exstatic]

Yeah, and they getting Kings pick right?

TBD. If ATL gets knocked into the lottery, and a WC team plays in, knocking GS out, it may push them up to 12, or they may defy the odds and get top 4.

[rascal]

You got it. There is not way Hawks will be better than Spurs next year, unless injuries happen to Spurs Again. Spurs will likely be a top 4 in the west.

Spurs should have a better record but neither should be expected to be in the lottery next year.

[spurraider21]

https://i.gyazo.com/70113ced4272410a679c1ab1b5e3fdde.png

[Uriel]

We are all Magic fans now.

[The Truth #6]

"Orlando, I LOVE you!"

https://youtu.be/dV-dE46JD3k?feature=shared

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NqS-6HFpK4

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hryDyxREFM4

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeghYjd23-0

[RC_Drunkford]

You got it. There is not way Hawks will be better than Spurs next year, unless injuries happen to Spurs Again. Spurs will likely be a top 4 in the west.

I believe it when I see it. Pop and Mitch could absolutely coach this team into the lottery again next season. That‘s the Spurs‘ culture for the past 7 years

[Mr. Body]

This was a play-in team until Wemby went down.

[SpurSpike]

So at this point we are hoping for Hawks to lose to Magic and then a coin flip between Hawks and Kings will determine if we get a lottery pick or not, is that right?

[cutewizard]

Let's hope for the best guys

[Mr. Body]

So at this point we are hoping for Hawks to lose to Magic and then a coin flip between Hawks and Kings will determine if we get a lottery pick or not, is that right?

We want them to lose to Orlando and then lose in the next play-in game (Chicago or Miami). This pushes them into the lottery and we get that pick.

[exstatic]

We want them to lose to Orlando and then lose in the next play-in game (Chicago or Miami). This pushes them into the lottery and we get that pick.

The cherry on top would be if Dallas plays in to the WC playoffs. If both happen, I believe Sacto’s pick would get pushed to 12, and Atlanta wouldn’t get it this year.

[Mr. Body]

We want them to lose to Orlando and then lose in the next play-in game (Chicago or Miami). This pushes them into the lottery and we get that pick.

Note that we get their pick regardless, but if they lose those two games it will be better.

[heyheymymy]

What's the bet scenario where ATL pick is most valuable and they don't get the SAC pick lol I can't crack the play in calculus

[spurraider21]

site is being slow/buggy as hell

i tried to type out the scenarios but no matter how many times i tried to post or edit, the formatting kept getting messed up

[exstatic]

site is being slow/buggy as hell

i tried to type out the scenarios but no matter how many times i tried to post or edit, the formatting kept getting messed up

Yeah, the automated feeder for the hamster wheel must be broken.

[Ice009]

At first, I thought it was just slow on my end, but I read a comment a day or two ago mentioning it, so I thought something is going on with those hamsters or their equipment ;). I thought this site was supposed to be upgraded earlier this year?

[exstatic]

At first, I thought it was just slow on my end, but I read a comment a day or two ago mentioning it, so I thought something is going on with those hamsters or their equipment ;). I thought this site was supposed to be upgraded earlier this year?

There’s a growing consensus that the upgrade thread may have been the greatest troll in the long history of ST.

[scott]

At first, I thought it was just slow on my end, but I read a comment a day or two ago mentioning it, so I thought something is going on with those hamsters or their equipment ;). I thought this site was supposed to be upgraded earlier this year?

The site's owner doesn't even care enough to post his game grades here. I suspect there will be as much time and money spent on this Forum as there is thought and care about it: zero.

[Sugus]

The site's owner doesn't even care enough to post his game grades here. I suspect there will be as much time and money spent on this Forum as there is thought and care about it: zero.

Honestly, seeing what has become of the modern Internet, I'm kind of thankful for Timvp's lackadaisical and old-school approach to Spurstalk, tbh.

Like sure, some more servers would be nice, but I want absolutely no part of Spurstalk being SEO-optimized or the interface/commands "modernized" or "streamlined", and of course, the "ads up the ass" modern web-building approach....

As long as he's paying to keep the lights on, so to speak, I'm really happy with how ST is. And also, amazed that it hasn't yet been "discovered" by modern spammers and AI shit.

[scott]

Honestly, seeing what has become of the modern Internet, I'm kind of thankful for Timvp's lackadaisical and old-school approach to Spurstalk, tbh.

Like sure, some more servers would be nice, but I want absolutely no part of Spurstalk being SEO-optimized or the interface/commands "modernized" or "streamlined", and of course, the "ads up the ass" modern web-building approach....

As long as he's paying to keep the lights on, so to speak, I'm really happy with how ST is. And also, amazed that it hasn't yet been "discovered" by modern spammers and AI shit.

Right up until the day it simply stops working. Then I guess we're just stuck with reddit? Oh well, at least we had the friends we made along the way.

[Knoxxx]

I'm eyeballing those Clarks dress shoes in my ad, tbh.

[Knoxxx]

Them 47 ball caps at the top also be drawing my attention.

[exstatic]

Right up until the day it simply stops working. Then I guess we're just stuck with reddit? Oh well, at least we had the friends we made along the way.

I was just thinking that if we hit top 4, or actually won the lottery, this place might crash.

[scott]

I was just thinking that if we hit top 4, or actually won the lottery, this place might crash.

I'll miss ya, buddy.

[exstatic]

I'll miss ya, buddy.

It would be a hell of a way to go out.

Cooper Flagg killed our web site!!

[John B]

It would be a hell of a way to go out.

Cooper Flagg killed our web site!!

The Austin Reaves thread alone is crashing this site already

[Mr. Body]

The site's owner doesn't even care enough to post his game grades here. I suspect there will be as much time and money spent on this Forum as there is thought and care about it: zero.

He ran a contest to see who could guess the 4/8 draft picks last year and I don't think he's ever been back.

[buttsR4rebounding]

There’s a growing consensus that the upgrade thread may have been the greatest troll in the long history of ST.

;)

[ffadicted]

Can we crowdfund new servers? How much? I can't be banished to just reddit :pctoss

[Dejounte]

I could take this on as a project but people wouldnt like me as an admin lmfao too much power

[LeBowen]

I could take this on as a project but people wouldnt like me as an admin lmfao too much power

It's easy enough to get a new forum going, but noone wants to lose all the data we have here.
Updating this one without losing data would be a decent amount of work.
vBulletin version 4.2.5, iirc that's from like 15 years ago by now.

Spurstalk is one of those strange places on the internet, tbh.

[mo7888]

I'm not a tech guy, but how much $ are we talking to buy the site and update the servers?

[John B]

It's easy enough to get a new forum going, but noone wants to lose all the data we have here.
Updating this one without losing data would be a decent amount of work.
vBulletin version 4.2.5, iirc that's from like 15 years ago by now.

Spurstalk is one of those strange places on the internet, tbh.

Not the data but some of the posters, maybe??

[CGD]

I’m liking the Bulls to take the 8th seed.

[exstatic]

I’m liking the Bulls to take the 8th seed.

Atlanta is the EXACT kind of team to get played out. They were 40-42, but based on stuff like NetRtg, their bbref expected record should have been 38-44. They had a lot of thing break right, and a lot of lucky bounces.

[scott]

I'm going to root for the Bulls just because they are the more fun team out of CHI/MIA, mostly due to Coby White... but I think Spo will whip up a two game winning formula here. I'm gonna look out for some sneaky Andrew Wiggins games coming up here Assuming he plays... he hasn't even dressed 4 of the last 6. The last game was understandable because it didn't matter, but his availability has been spotty since going to MIA. I don't follow MIA so I don't know what's going on there?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Miami would be far more desperate to get in the playoffs because if they don’t convey this year’s pick to OKC they will owe both 2026 and 2028(to Charlotte) unprotected. This would be a disaster for them.

Also Chicago are a textbook fools gold.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I'm not a tech guy, but how much $ are we talking to buy the site and update the servers?


A few years back I offered to give them a Xeon server and a big, fast multi-drive tape backup - no strings attached. And OPS (Olympus Parcel Service) could have had it there in just a few days. Apparently not interested. C'est la vie.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Right up until the day it simply stops working. Then I guess we're just stuck with reddit? Oh well, at least we had the friends we made along the way.

I can’t think of any other forum I’ve been on for 20+ years and still post on.

[Ditty]

So for Wednesday games:

Mavs/Kings - Prefer Mavs to win and beat Memphis for the 8th seed?

Heat/Bulls - Prefer Bulls to win so Dallas won't jump a spot in the lottery if Miami gets in the playoffs?

[spurraider21]

So for Wednesday games:

Mavs/Kings - Prefer Mavs to win and beat Memphis for the 8th seed?
yep absolutely. becomes moot if the hawks win their next game, but if the hawks lose, this is the best case scenario


Heat/Bulls - Prefer Bulls to win so Dallas won't jump a spot in the lottery if Miami gets in the playoffs?
not really concerned with the mavs draft position. they traded luka. they're cooked.

basically in this game you just want whichever team that you think has the best chance of knocking off ATL. if one thought chicago is more likely than miami to beat ATL, they should be pulling for chicago or vice versa

[RC_Drunkford]

I'm going to root for the Bulls just because they are the more fun team out of CHI/MIA, mostly due to Coby White... but I think Spo will whip up a two game winning formula here. I'm gonna look out for some sneaky Andrew Wiggins games coming up here Assuming he plays... he hasn't even dressed 4 of the last 6. The last game was understandable because it didn't matter, but his availability has been spotty since going to MIA. I don't follow MIA so I don't know what's going on there?

Jaime Jaquez is fucking Spoelstra‘s ex-wife and buying her cars

[Obstructed_View]

It's easy enough to get a new forum going, but noone wants to lose all the data we have here.
Updating this one without losing data would be a decent amount of work.
vBulletin version 4.2.5, iirc that's from like 15 years ago by now.

Spurstalk is one of those strange places on the internet, tbh.
They purged all the good shit a few years ago.

[Robz4000]

I'm going to root for the Bulls just because they are the more fun team out of CHI/MIA, mostly due to Coby White... but I think Spo will whip up a two game winning formula here. I'm gonna look out for some sneaky Andrew Wiggins games coming up here Assuming he plays... he hasn't even dressed 4 of the last 6. The last game was understandable because it didn't matter, but his availability has been spotty since going to MIA. I don't follow MIA so I don't know what's going on there?

From what it sounds like Wiggins might be done tbh. He was almost out of the Dubs' rotation before the trade and even Spo couldn't get much out of him from what I've heard.

[Ice009]

From what it sounds like Wiggins might be done tbh. He was almost out of the Dubs' rotation before the trade and even Spo couldn't get much out of him from what I've heard.

What do you mean by done? Does he have physical issues/injury, or do you mean washed up?

[Robz4000]

What do you mean by done? Does he have physical issues/injury, or do you mean washed up?

Washed up

[spurraider21]

Washed up
nonsense tbh

since he got traded to miami he was playing well. 32 minutes per game, putting up 19/4/3 on his typically solid efficiency. he just got hurt toward the end

[scott]

I'm going to root for the Bulls just because they are the more fun team out of CHI/MIA, mostly due to Coby White... but I think Spo will whip up a two game winning formula here. I'm gonna look out for some sneaky Andrew Wiggins games coming up here Assuming he plays... he hasn't even dressed 4 of the last 6. The last game was understandable because it didn't matter, but his availability has been spotty since going to MIA. I don't follow MIA so I don't know what's going on there?

scottstradamus, tbqh

[spurraider21]

hopefully he has one more in him, tbh

[mystargtr34]

$90M man Patrick Williams with 0 points on 0-2 FG with 2 rebounds and 1 steal in 15 minutes.

[RC_Drunkford]

$90M man Patrick Williams with 0 points on 0-2 FG with 2 rebounds and 1 steal in 15 minutes.

Sounds like a future Spur to me

[John B]

So for Wednesday games:

Mavs/Kings - Prefer Mavs to win and beat Memphis for the 8th seed?

Heat/Bulls - Prefer Bulls to win so Dallas won't jump a spot in the lottery if Miami gets in the playoffs?

Great call. Heat might get us that lottery pick. Go Heat!

[spurraider21]

so here are the scenarios now:

Atlanta and Dallas win: Atlanta gives us 16 (worst case scenario)

Atlanta and Memphis win: Atlanta gives us 15

Miami and Memphis win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 13 or 14 depending on outcome of the flip, Hawks get the other pick (from Sacto)

Miami and Dallas win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 12 or 13 depending on outcome of the flip. If we get 12, Hawks get 13. If we get 13, then 12 stays with Sacto. These are the two best outcomes on the board regardless of the flip.

[Ddm5]

In other words... GO MIAMI and DALLAS! Appreciate the scenarios! Thanks!


so here are the scenarios now:

Atlanta and Dallas win: Atlanta gives us 16 (worst case scenario)

Atlanta and Memphis win: Atlanta gives us 15

Miami and Memphis win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 13 or 14 depending on outcome of the flip, Hawks get the other pick (from Sacto)

Miami and Dallas win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 12 or 13 depending on outcome of the flip. If we get 12, Hawks get 13. If we get 13, then 12 stays with Sacto. These are the two best outcomes on the board regardless of the flip.

[couchman]

Atlanta plays first so we’ll know after that whether to root for Dallas or Memphis.

[ambchang]

I’ve been angling for a wiggins trade instead of a lavine trade. Not sure if the ship has passed. Still think he'd be good value given his contract especially when compared to vassell. I’d give Vassell and a number of 2nds and a protected 1st for him. But I doubt Miami is willing to do it.

[exstatic]

Atlanta plays first so we’ll know after that whether to root for Dallas or Memphis.

No. You root for Dallas. If they lose and fall back into the lottery, Sacto has no chance at being pushed up to #12, and their pick kept away from Atlanta. We need both #8s to get pushed into the lottery for Sacto to have a chance at #12. Our best scenario requires something that hasn’t happened yet to happen twice on Friday: a #10 playing in.

[John B]

No. You root for Dallas. If they lose and fall back into the lottery, Sacto has no chance at being pushed up to #12, and their pick kept away from Atlanta. We need both #8s to get pushed into the lottery for Sacto to have a chance at #12. Our best scenario requires something that hasn’t happened yet to happen twice on Friday: a #10 playing in.

I can't believe I'd say this, Go Mavs!! :vomit:

[scott]

Ja listed as a Game Time Decision for Memphis, fyi

[spurraider21]

Ja listed as a Game Time Decision for Memphis, fyi
on one hand, he finished the game after the injury. on the other hand, sometimes these types of injuries swell up a lot worse after the fact making it possible to play some immediately after but then not later.

would be a huge loss for them. if memphis just tries to win via size/physicality absent Ja's quickness, the mavs match up quite well against that with their slew of bigs, and long wings in PJ and Naji marshall.

[Russ]

so here are the scenarios now:

Atlanta and Dallas win: Atlanta gives us 16 (worst case scenario)

Atlanta and Memphis win: Atlanta gives us 15

Miami and Memphis win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 13 or 14 depending on outcome of the flip, Hawks get the other pick (from Sacto)

Miami and Dallas win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 12 or 13 depending on outcome of the flip. If we get 12, Hawks get 13. If we get 13, then 12 stays with Sacto. These are the two best outcomes on the board regardless of the flip.

If the best case scenario is 8 and 12, here are some odds with those two spots.

The Spurs have a 32.3% chance of getting a top four pick.

The Spurs have a 1.6% chance of getting two top four picks.

The Spurs have a 7.3% chance of getting the #1 pick.

The Spurs have a 0.33% chance of getting the top two picks.

(Caveat, my math skills.)

[spurraider21]

If the best case scenario is 8 and 12, here are some odds with those two spots.

The Spurs have a 32.3% chance of getting a top four pick.

The Spurs have a 1.6% chance of getting two top four picks.

The Spurs have a 7.3% chance of getting the #1 pick.

The Spurs have a 0.33% chance of getting the top two picks.

(Caveat, my math skills.)
yeah 8 and 12 is the best case scenario about maximizing our pick value in THIS draft, though i'd argue that 8 and 13 is actually our best case scenario, since that path theoretically upgrades our pick in the each of the next 2 drafts in exchange for moving down one slot this year

[Knoxxx]

so here are the scenarios now:

Atlanta and Dallas win: Atlanta gives us 16 (worst case scenario)

Atlanta and Memphis win: Atlanta gives us 15

Miami and Memphis win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 13 or 14 depending on outcome of the flip, Hawks get the other pick (from Sacto)

Miami and Dallas win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 12 or 13 depending on outcome of the flip. If we get 12, Hawks get 13. If we get 13, then 12 stays with Sacto. These are the two best outcomes on the board regardless of the flip.

How on earth can ATL now pass ORL for 16, up from 15?

[mystargtr34]

How on earth can ATL now pass ORL for 16, up from 15?

They don’t pass Orlando. Orlando moves up from 16 to 17 and Atlanta moves up from 15 to 16. because Memphis now drops from their current position of 18 down to 14. This only happens if Dallas beats Memphis tomorrow and Memphis misses playoffs. And Atlanta beats Miami and also makes the playoffs.

[spurraider21]

How on earth can ATL now pass ORL for 16, up from 15?
they wouldnt pass orlando. if Dallas and ATL both win, then Dallas is 15, ATL is 16, and ORL is 17

[scott]

yeah 8 and 12 is the best case scenario about maximizing our pick value in THIS draft, though i'd argue that 8 and 13 is actually our best case scenario, since that path theoretically upgrades our pick in the each of the next 2 drafts in exchange for moving down one slot this year

To that end, whether the Atlanta pick ends at 12 or 13 actually results in the exact same lottery odds, because ties are broken only for placement of picks that do not jump into the top 4, but the ping pong balls in the event of a tie are split evenly between the tied teams.

So, ending up at 12 versus 13 does not impact our odds at jumping up to a top 4 pick, it only impacts what happens if both SAC and ATL natural picks do not jump into the top 4.

[spurraider21]

To that end, whether the Atlanta pick ends at 12 or 13 actually results in the exact same lottery odds, because ties are broken only for placement of picks that do not jump into the top 4, but the ping pong balls in the event of a tie are split evenly between the tied teams.

So, ending up at 12 versus 13 does not impact our odds at jumping up to a top 4 pick, it only impacts what happens if both SAC and ATL natural picks do not jump into the top 4.
ah nice, i didnt even know that tidbit. even better

[exstatic]

To that end, whether the Atlanta pick ends at 12 or 13 actually results in the exact same lottery odds, because ties are broken only for placement of picks that do not jump into the top 4, but the ping pong balls in the event of a tie are split evenly between the tied teams.

So, ending up at 12 versus 13 does not impact our odds at jumping up to a top 4 pick, it only impacts what happens if both SAC and ATL natural picks do not jump into the top 4.

Fun fact: a tie doesn’t result in exactly even odds. I think there is like one extra number combo that goes to #12. It’s close, but if you want to see what an ATL/SAC 12/13 tie looks like, there’s a current 12/13 tie with different teams on TaT r/n.

[Knoxxx]

If ATL loses tomorrow night, what are our range of outcomes?

[exstatic]

If ATL loses tomorrow night, what are our range of outcomes?

If Dallas loses, 14/13 coin flip w/ Sacto.
If Dallas wins, 13/12 coin flip w/ Sacto.

[SpursGenius]

could have had bulls pick should have traded keldon instead

[Ice009]

could have had bulls pick should have traded keldon instead

If that was a ever a possibility (trading Keldon instead of that pick), that sucks looking back at it now with where the Bulls ended up.

[cutewizard]

Nostradamus wake up, do we get Flagg???

Hahahaha

[exstatic]

could have had bulls pick should have traded keldon instead

People on this forum think Keldon is crap, but also that other teams will take him in lieu of getting their pick back. If they don’t own their pick,there’s no way CHI goes on the ending kick they did.

[rascal]

If that was a ever a possibility (trading Keldon instead of that pick), that sucks looking back at it now with where the Bulls ended up.

You have to trade some value to get value. Spurs did well in that trade and good for Chicago to get some value back in that trade.

If it wasn't for Chicago that trade wasn't going to happen.

[couchman]

If we don’t make the trade Chicago probably tanks to keep the pick.
Don’t get twisted.

[scott]

Go Heat and Go Mavs!

[spurs10]

To that end, whether the Atlanta pick ends at 12 or 13 actually results in the exact same lottery odds, because ties are broken only for placement of picks that do not jump into the top 4, but the ping pong balls in the event of a tie are split evenly between the tied teams.

So, ending up at 12 versus 13 does not impact our odds at jumping up to a top 4 pick, it only impacts what happens if both SAC and ATL natural picks do not jump into the top 4. Good info! Thanks. Hate to say it, but Go Heat and Go Mavs!

[John B]

Go Heat and Go Mavs!

10 years ago those were fighting words and deserved getting kicked out from this forum

[scottspurs]

I might finally Forget about 2013 if the Heat can beat the Hawks tonight and that pick moves up to #1 overall. Might I said haha

[Mal]

Everybody shut tf up, dont jinx it

[poopbox]

Pick is 5 min away from being virtually useless tbh

[TowelWaver]

19 seconds away from a second lottery pick...go Heat...

[Guru of Nothing]

Holy shit, our luck.

Update on specifics for my semi-literate ass, por favor.

[Biggems]

What happens if the Mavs win?

[vy65]

To be clear, this will not happen. But can you imagine how utterly dejected ATL would be if the .0007 or whatever odds hits and the pick is a #1 pick? That’s exponentially worse than losing game 7 of the finals on a buzzer beater.

[spurraider21]

we're in the endgame now


so here are the scenarios now:

Atlanta and Dallas win: Atlanta gives us 16 (worst case scenario)

Atlanta and Memphis win: Atlanta gives us 15

Miami and Memphis win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 13 or 14 depending on outcome of the flip, Hawks get the other pick (from Sacto)

Miami and Dallas win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 12 or 13 depending on outcome of the flip. If we get 12, Hawks get 13. If we get 13, then 12 stays with Sacto. These are the two best outcomes on the board regardless of the flip.

[Biggems]

When are the lottery odds for 12 and 13?

[SPURt]

Mavs coming out of the gate like a bunch of newly waxed assholes

[vander]

Did Miami lose thier first round pick by winning?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Did Miami lose thier first round pick by winning?

Yes and happily. Otherwise they would have owed their 2026 and 2028 firsts unprotected.

[spursparker9]

tbh I think likely this pick get traded for future pick again :lol

[spursistan]

To be fair exstatic has been pounding on this drum all season long. The Hawks were simply way worse than their record suggested lucking out with bunch of wacky early wins vs Cleveland, Boston and injured Bucks coupled with few Trae buzzer beaters..Sure they aren't a bottom 6 team, but i expect them be in the 8-14 pick range again next season.

[Degoat]

Definitely could see us trading the pick lol although I could see the spurs taking a swing on Nolan Traore with it

[Biggems]

Mavs coming out of the gate like a bunch of newly waxed assholes

This is an accurate description of the suckfest we are witnessing at the moment

[Death In June]

When would they do the coin flip to determine lottery odds?

[Mr. Body]

Yes and happily. Otherwise they would have owed their 2026 and 2028 firsts unprotected.

To who?

[Ice009]

Yes and happily. Otherwise they would have owed their 2026 and 2028 firsts unprotected.

Wow. What were the conditions of the pick, and who is it owed to?

[CGD]

So nice to see it reflected on tankarhon!

[Mr. Body]

I think to OKC.

[tonight...you]

Mavs coming out of the gate like a bunch of newly waxed assholes
Lol. You sling some of the best shit.
Love it.
That one time you got truly excited during a game and wanted to see how far Wemby could get in your butthole was legendary.

[CGD]

If Dallas loses, 14/13 coin flip w/ Sacto.
If Dallas wins, 13/12 coin flip w/ Sacto.

Thanks. In either case we went from just over 26% chance at a top 4 pick to 30%. I’ll take it.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

To who?

Tried to type a long answer but apparently no one has fed the hamster today so the site barely works and couldn’t post it.

2026 to OKC, 2028 to Charlotte.

[Frenchfred]

Thanks. In either case we went from just over 26% chance at a top 4 pick to 30%. I’ll take it.

[Frenchfred]

Thanks. In either case we went from just over 26% chance at a top 4 pick to 30%. I’ll take it.

I think that the probability is less than 30% as the two draws are independent. We are probably closer to 28-29%. Still better than 26.4%.

[mystargtr34]

Yeah it’s almost like going from the 8th spot odds to the 7th spot odds. Now if the Mavs win the Spurs odds will jump even higher to like almost the same odds as the 6th spot Brooklyn Nets.

[Frenchfred]

Yeah it’s almost like going from the 8th spot odds to the 7th spot odds. Now if the Mavs win the Spurs odds will jump even higher to like almost the same odds as the 6th spot Brooklyn Nets.

I don’t think that you simply add the odds. If you have the 1st and 2nd picks, you don’t have 104% chance of getting a top4 pick, you can still end up with the 5 and 6. If Atlanta were to get the 12th pick (pretty unlikely seeing the Mavs game), the chance for a top4 pick would be around 32%.

[Robz4000]

To be fair exstatic has been pounding on this drum all season long. The Hawks were simply way worse than their record suggested lucking out with bunch of wacky early wins vs Cleveland, Boston and injured Bucks coupled with few Trae buzzer beaters..Sure they aren't a bottom 6 team, but i expect them be in the 8-14 pick range again next season.

Honestly, I think they might be better next season with Jalen Johnson back and whoever they take with the Kings' pick. East is gonna tank even harder next season with the top 3/4 of the 2026 draft being even better than this year as a whole.

[SPURt]

Lol. You sling some of the best shit.
Love it.
That one time you got truly excited during a game and wanted to see how far Wemby could get in your butthole was legendary.
Unfortunately, I’m like this at work and around family/friends, it has mixed results :lol

[exstatic]

Honestly, I think they might be better next season with Jalen Johnson back and whoever they take with the Kings' pick. East is gonna tank even harder next season with the top 3/4 of the 2026 draft being even better than this year as a whole.
It depends on how many East teams decide to tank for Dybantsa. There were a shit load this year, and ATL still wound up in the lottery. If even a couple teams decide to go the Detroit route and actually win, ATL could slip even further. Trae could also ask out. He has an option, and can be a UFA in 2026. He could force their hand. Or, ATL could decide they don’t want to pay Trae $70M to lead a treadmill team, and just unilaterally cash out on him.

[Robz4000]

It depends on how many East teams decide to tank for Dybantsa. There were a shit load this year, and ATL still wound up in the lottery. If even a couple teams decide to go the Detroit route and actually win, ATL could slip even further. Trae could also ask out. He has an option, and can be a UFA in 2026. He could force their hand. Or, ATL could decide they don’t want to pay Trae $70M to lead a treadmill team, and just unilaterally cash out on him.

Hopefully they don't trade him tbh; he'll keep them from being even better imo. I could see teams like the Heat and Bucks blowing it up this offseason to tank with only Toronto potentially challenging to take their place. Gonna have to see what happens over the next few months but the Spurs should look to move off the Atlanta picks for better value if possible.

[CGD]

I don’t think that you simply add the odds. If you have the 1st and 2nd picks, you don’t have 104% chance of getting a top4 pick, you can still end up with the 5 and 6. If Atlanta were to get the 12th pick (pretty unlikely seeing the Mavs game), the chance for a top4 pick would be around 32%.

Good point. For what it’s worth the AI tells me that by controlling 8 and 14, the Spurs’ chances of securing:

1) a top-four pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery increase from 26.2% (with only their own pick) to approximately 28.0%.

2) No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery increase from 6.0% (with only their own pick) to approximately 6.47%.