Atlanta Hawks 2025 Draft Pick Watch

[Mr. Body]

Good point. For what it’s worth the AI tells me that by controlling 8 and 14, the Spurs’ chances of securing:

1) a top-four pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery increase from 26.2% (with only their own pick) to approximately 28.0%.

2) No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery increase from 6.0% (with only their own pick) to approximately 6.47%.

Here are the odds for each pick:

https://tankathon.com/pick_odds

[John B]

So is the current Tankathon standings already set or do any teams still need a coin toss? Can ATL pick go to 13th and is that the highest it can go?

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Coin toss between Hawks and Kings!

We get 13 or 14!

[John B]

Coin toss between Hawks and Kings!

We get 13 or 14!

Thanks bruh

[Amuseddaysleeper]

First try :bobo

https://i.imgur.com/zwafDS1_d.webp?maxwidth=760&fidelity=grand

[Uriel]

First try :bobo

https://i.imgur.com/zwafDS1_d.webp?maxwidth=760&fidelity=grand
We would destroy the NBA for the next decade if this ever happened.

PG - Harper
SG - Fox
SF - Castle
PF - Flagg
C - Wembanyama

Bench: Vassell, Johnson, Sochan

:wow :wow :wow

[vander]

There would be a federal investigation into the draft lottery process

[Robz4000]

First try :bobo

https://i.imgur.com/zwafDS1_d.webp?maxwidth=760&fidelity=grand

:lol since it's you, it prolly means the Spurs end up with 13 and 14

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Pick is 5 min away from being virtually useless tbh

How would it have been useless by going from 13/14 to 15? :cry What a drama queen.

[Robz4000]

How would it have been useless by going from 13/14 to 15? :cry What a drama queen.

13/14 is a non-zero chance at Flagg tbh. That being said, there's some intriguing prospects in the mid-1st.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

13/14 is a non-zero chance at Flagg tbh. That being said, there's some intriguing prospects in the mid-1st.

Yeah that 0.7 percent chance to get Flagg is surely going to fill us with hope until Silver opens the first envelope.

I see the middle of this draft being quite underwhelming and everyone from like 9 to 20 being in the same
tier but I wouldn’t mind Fleming or Bryant with that pick if they don’t find a good trade out deal.

[Robz4000]

Yeah that 0.7 percent chance to get Flagg is surely going to fill us with hope until Silver opens the first envelope.

I see the middle of this draft being quite underwhelming and everyone from like 9 to 20 being in the same
tier but I wouldn’t mind Fleming or Bryant with that pick if they don’t find a good trade out deal.

I want to believe.

Pretty much agree with the rest though :tu

[spursistan]

13/14 is a non-zero chance at Flagg tbh. That being said, there's some intriguing prospects in the mid-1st.
Still think that ATL pick gets dealt for future first(s) or dangled for someone (KD? Cam? Naz Reid?) this offseason or just to move up a spot or two to get a guy they liked assuming we stay at 8. Don't see the Spurs bringing in up two rookies on the roster next season.

I think the Hawks picks will generally be used as sweeteners for ready-to-contribute upgrades when they finally ship Vassell/Keldon as they don't project to be premium picks, like, say, those Boston Nets picks (Those ended up being 3rd, 3d, 8th in the '16,'17,'18 drafts). By next season trade deadline, we'll get a clearer idea about that '26 swap.

[exstatic]

Yeah that 0.7 percent chance to get Flagg is surely going to fill us with hope until Silver opens the first envelope.

I see the middle of this draft being quite underwhelming and everyone from like 9 to 20 being in the same
tier but I wouldn’t mind Fleming or Bryant with that pick if they don’t find a good trade out deal.

There are no envelopes involved. Ping pong balls 1-14 can be drawn in 1001 four number combinations. If combo 11,12,13,14 is drawn, it is discarded, and they draw again. The other 1000 combos are assigned to the lottery teams in proportion to their odds. The lottery is conducted behind closed doors by Ernst and Young, with witnesses from each lottery teams.

If you were to try to rig it,you could only alter the ping pong balls for one four number combination. Say you’re trying to rig it for team A. They have combos 1,12,13,14 and 2,12,13,14. If you try to rig both, you might draw 1,2,12,13 or 1,2,13,14 belonging to other teams. So, you alter the ping pong balls for one 4 number combo, and it wins the lottery! The problem is, that combo will KEEP coming up when drawing for positions 2-4, and the team representatives will know something’s up.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

:lol since it's you, it prolly means the Spurs end up with 13 and 14

With both picks getting season long injuries in preseason :lol

[rascal]

Spurs will have 68 or 67 combinations of the 1001 combinations depending if they end up 13 or 14.

One combination is a null so a do over so really there are 1000 combinations.

Odds of a top 4 will change/increase after each ball is drawn with the drawn team's position's combinations no longer valid to be selected again.

[Mr. Body]

Still think that ATL pick gets dealt for future first(s) or dangled for someone (KD? Cam? Naz Reid?) this offseason or just to move up a spot or two to get a guy they liked assuming we stay at 8. Don't see the Spurs bringing in up two rookies on the roster next season.

I think the Hawks picks will generally be used as sweeteners for ready-to-contribute upgrades when they finally ship Vassell/Keldon as they don't project to be premium picks, like, say, those Boston Nets picks (Those ended up being 3rd, 3d, 8th in the '16,'17,'18 drafts). By next season trade deadline, we'll get a clearer idea about that '26 swap.

There are nine teams with no first round picks, one of those (Denver) with no picks at all. The Clippers are a tenth, they have the 30th pick and a second.

I can see dangling the Atlanta pick for something in the future. One of these teams may need a burst to stay relevant.

I'm sure the Spurs may try to move up two or three spots if they stay at eight and might miss the candidate they like.

[Dex]

I want to believe.

Pretty much agree with the rest though :tu

Given how lucky we've been in the last two drafts (obviously Wemby, but also moved up last season which allowed us to get Castle and Atlanta's pick fell to us which basically turned into Fox)...I'm not sure how much luck we've got left :lol

[Atl Spur]

The Spurs will work their magic; a lot of different ways to leverage the pick depending on where it lands. I personally look at it like found money…. Play the long game being our core pieces are in place.

[MannyIsGod]

Given how lucky we've been in the last two drafts (obviously Wemby, but also moved up last season which allowed us to get Castle and Atlanta's pick fell to us which basically turned into Fox)...I'm not sure how much luck we've got left :lol

Moving up last year wasn't really lucky given the odds of being in top 4 with two picks. That was a pretty damn standard result.

EDIT - wait no I'm dumb. Forgot it was top 6 protected. You're right, we got lucky AF last year lol.

[exstatic]

Moving up last year wasn't really lucky given the odds of being in top 4 with two picks. That was a pretty damn standard result.

EDIT - wait no I'm dumb. Forgot it was top 6 protected. You're right, we got lucky AF last year lol.

And Toronto was sitting AT #6, pre-lottery.

[TVI]

First try :bobo

https://i.imgur.com/zwafDS1_d.webp?maxwidth=760&fidelity=grand

From your lips to God’s ears…

The NBA would have a collective shit.

[thOOdee]

Moving up last year wasn't really lucky given the odds of being in top 4 with two picks. That was a pretty damn standard result.

EDIT - wait no I'm dumb. Forgot it was top 6 protected. You're right, we got lucky AF last year lol.


and lucky enough not to get the top 3 picks because we probably would have taken sheppard.

[baseline bum]

We would destroy the NBA for the next decade if this ever happened.

PG - Harper
SG - Fox
SF - Castle
PF - Flagg
C - Wembanyama

Bench: Vassell, Johnson, Sochan

:wow :wow :wow

God no, no more Fox at SG.

[baseline bum]

First try :bobo

https://i.imgur.com/zwafDS1_d.webp?maxwidth=760&fidelity=grand

That's just greedy man. I'll humbly take Flagg and Edgecombe and be happy.

[spurraider21]

That's just greedy man. I'll humbly take Flagg and Edgecombe and be happy.
Flagg and Bailey tbh

[SpurSpike]

Do we find out if the pick will be 13 or 14 today?

[rascal]

Flagg and Bailey tbh

Bailey has a nice shot. Looks like a slightly smaller KD.

Bailey and Wemby on the same team will be a matchup nightmare for teams.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Atlanta have fired Landry Fields apparently.

They have a massive decision on Trae, basically either extend or trade him. Could be a turbulent summer for them.

[scottspurs]

Do we find out if the pick will be 13 or 14 today?


Yes, coin toss is today at 2pm

[spursparker9]

Atlanta have fired Landry Fields apparently.

They have a massive decision on Trae, basically either extend or trade him. Could be a turbulent summer for them.

:lol Hawks...If they didn't trade Murray for Dyson Daniels, we would have gotten a top 8 pick from them

[BatManu20]

Lol Hawks. The Ressler family are such shit owners. They're the ones who pushed for the Dejounte trade behind closed doors. Fields salvaged it by trading him for Dyson Daniels. What a joke. Fields is their fall guy, which is hilarious considering the Hawks were playing well this season before injuries decimated their roster. Fields hired Quinn Snyder and then hit on Risacher, who looks like he's going to be a good player. He didn't deserve to get canned imo. But that's what bad ownership does. Now I'm curious to see if they shop Trae Young or not. I think they ultimately hang onto him, but we'll see what happens.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Hopefully they go after Elton Brand, as reported, and not David Griffin, who’s pretty competent.

[spurraider21]

I thought Fields did well. Yes the Murray trade flopped but did a heck of a salvage job with the Daniels trade. Risacher had a good rookie year. They really seemed to have some vision of a future with these athletic wings. Even did well with the Hunter trade. Levery was quite good for them

baffling fire.

[Ice009]

Another weird firing. I thought Landry Fields did really well with what he was able to get from those trades this season. I don't think he deserved to be fired.

[baseline bum]

Bailey has a nice shot. Looks like a slightly smaller KD.

Bailey and Wemby on the same team will be a matchup nightmare for teams.

Come on man, that's like saying Kelel Ware is a smaller Wemby. KD was one of the GOAT NCAA players, not some guy with no handle who couldn't take his team to the tournament.

[scott]

I thought Fields did well. Yes the Murray trade flopped but did a heck of a salvage job with the Daniels trade. Risacher had a good rookie year. They really seemed to have some vision of a future with these athletic wings. Even did well with the Hunter trade. Levery was quite good for them

baffling fire.

And the acquisition of DJM was before Fields, Landry is the guy who salvaged things for ATL.

I agree, a baffling fire... wonder how secure Quin Snyder's position is if their ownership believes a major rebuilding is needed. Maybe they are just dumb enough to tear it down to the studs while we control their picks.

Worst case scenario for us, however, is that they find a good return for Trae this summer and actually improve their team. Seems like Young is pretty committed to Atlanta though (at least thus far) so maybe they'll continue to just try and rebuild around him and we can collect those picks in the mid-teens.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

And the acquisition of DJM was before Fields, Landry is the guy who salvaged things for ATL.

I agree, a baffling fire... wonder how secure Quin Snyder's position is if their ownership believes a major rebuilding is needed. Maybe they are just dumb enough to tear it down to the studs while we control their picks.

Worst case scenario for us, however, is that they find a good return for Trae this summer and actually improve their team. Seems like Young is pretty committed to Atlanta though (at least thus far) so maybe they'll continue to just try and rebuild around him and we can collect those picks in the mid-teens.

I think the worst case for SA is if they re-sign Trae, because he's a very good floor raiser. It would be very difficult for them to find a short-term win-now player in a Trae trade considering the teams that would be in for him - Houston, Orlando, Brooklyn, etc. It would be a young player + picks package. Giving the ball to Jalen Johnson might not work all that well immediately after so many years of Trae running everything.

The firing is certainly weird though and it probably has something to do with conflicting priorities between Fields and ownership. Tough to say what their plans could be.

That said, I think they're the team that would risk it with Zion, regardless of what happens to Trae.

[scott]

Also... Quin is a very competent coach who will keep them from bottoming out, so if they fire him it could be good for us (no ill feelings intended towards Quin)... but I'd hate to see them replace him with Jenkins, who manages to squeeze every last bit of potential out of his rosters.

[scott]

I think the worst case for SA is if they re-sign Trae, because he's a very good floor raiser. It would be very difficult for them to find a short-term win-now player in a Trae trade considering the teams that would be in for him - Houston, Orlando, Brooklyn, etc. It would be a young player + picks package. Giving the ball to Jalen Johnson might not work all that well immediately after so many years of Trae running everything.

The firing is certainly weird though and it probably has something to do with conflicting priorities between Fields and ownership. Tough to say what their plans could be.

That said, I think they're the team that would risk it with Zion, regardless of what happens to Trae.

Yeah, Trae definitely raises the floor but I think he also caps their ceiling. I wouldn't want to see, for example, a Trae for Ja swap (I have no clue if either team would even consider this, just spitballing) - one of those situations where both teams are just looking for a change of direction.

[LeBowen]

Some teams just don't deserve any better, Hawks finally put together something that resembles a functional roster and GM gets fired.

[SpurSpike]

Has it been decided? Spent some time on tankathon rolling drafts over and over and i was only able to make 14 move up to the top 4 one time in 100+ tries while 13 on the other hand seemed to move up much more frequently.

[couchman]

Coin flips are today but I'm not sure when the results are announced.
Apparently some law firm has to verify it first.

[scott]

Coin flips are today but I'm not sure when the results are announced.
Apparently some law firm has to verify it first.

We got 14th.

[CGD]

We got 14th.

We were due to have some “bad” luck

[couchman]

Didn't we lose a coin flip vs Rockets before winning the Wemby lottery?
Perhaps this is an auspicious sign.

[KobesAchilles]

Them firing Landry is amazing news for us. It means the coach and GM have no relationship and they will be inclined to move off of Synder. Means they’re going to tank by incompetency!

[ginobilized]

14th, not so shabby. Even if we end up at 8th and 14th, we have a lot of options among draft picks and trades.

Landry Fields firing makes me wonder if Snyder might bolt for SA since those two are seemingly pretty tight. Can he just resign and we grab him?

I keep wondering if a Ja for Zion trade might happen. Hard to say with both FOs in some flux.

[RC_Drunkford]

via Mark Stein


The Hawks are looking to pair their eventual hire with the recently promoted Onsi Saleh. (https://marcstein.substack.com/p/a-dream-target-for-the-suns-and-more) The Hawks have already elevated the well-regarded cap strategist to GM after hiring him away from the Warriors, who had hired Saleh away from the Spurs. Saleh has also worked closely with scouting and pro personnel departments in his past roles.

Myers’ name has been mentioned as a potential target in Atlanta, too, and he has already worked closely with Saleh when both were with the Warriors … though it is hard in the extreme to picture the former Golden State shot-caller moving that far away from the West Coast (https://marcstein.substack.com/p/a-dream-target-for-the-suns-and-more)


So the new Hawks GM is an ex-Spurs and ex-Warriors GM and they are trying to sign Bob Myers as well as the Phoenix Suns. Let's hope that doesn't happen, otherwise they might actually have a smart FO for once.

[buttsR4rebounding]

It is a different world than Myers was successful in with the 2nd apron. Also he will never have an owner so willing to pay 9 figures in luxury tax to field the best team possible.

[Ice009]

Are the Suns and Hawks both trying to hire Bob Myers?

[exstatic]

It is a different world than Myers was successful in with the 2nd apron. Also he will never have an owner so willing to pay 9 figures in luxury tax to field the best team possible.

Myers wasn’t successful with the second apron, because it didn’t exist back then. He would just quote a figure for payroll and tax, and Lacob would cut the check for it. Guys like Lacob are the reason for the second apron penalties.

I really have a hard time seeing Myers working for the Hawks. Their ownership has mandated like a four year fire sale, offloading talent each summer to stay below the basic luxury tax line.

[intlspurshk]

Maybe SPURS can consider to trade for Dyson Daniel with 2025 FRP, another FRP or swap and filler

[CGD]

via Mark Stein



So the new Hawks GM is an ex-Spurs and ex-Warriors GM and they are trying to sign Bob Myers as well as the Phoenix Suns. Let's hope that doesn't happen, otherwise they might actually have a smart FO for once.

Landry did a good job under the circumstances, tbh. Think he got screwed. He saved the Murray debacle for them, which he inherited. Wasn’t his fault it was a shitty draft, and made a defensible choice in Risacher at 1. Sure he would have moved Tre, but management loves him.