Official Hurricane Katrina Thread

[Trainwreck2100]

Ok that's funny.

And yet, awkward.

Just trying to lighten the mood.

[angel_luv]

Oh my gosh! I haven't seen the news in days and had no idea the situation was so serious.

I'll be praying for the city and everyone it.

[Sense]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205423.shtml?3day

lots of menus, images, graphics, text.

the IR vapor animation is particulary menacing. of course the colors are assigned, articficial, not natural.

Thank you.

[Samr]

What about all those casinos on barges? Something about a bussiness built, literally, on water that really seems like a bad idea.

I hope the fish like slots.

[ObiwanGinobili]

WTF?


the 1yr old and the newborn arn't considered "special needs"....... :rolleyes

[Trainwreck2100]

What about all those casinos on barges? Something about a bussiness built, literally, on water that really seems like a bad idea.

I hope the fish like slots.

The barges prob. escaped up the Mississippi

[2pac]

What about all those casinos on barges? Something about a bussiness built, literally, on water that really seems like a bad idea.

I hope the fish like slots.

Until this year, all casinos but the NO Harrahs were required to be on barges.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I hope the fish like slots.

Gotta admit, that was funny.

[ChumpDumper]

They cant move most of those those barges -- they're too soildly attached to the land. It is an unfortunate side efect of silly gaming laws. In Biloxi, they're just taking the money off the boats.

[T Park]

French Quarter??

After this is all drained and gone.

The French Quarter will be no more.

All the history of that area just taken away overnight.

Amazing.

[Samr]

With a ~20-25 foot storm surge....I cannot begin to fathom the destruction to casinos, marinas, and loading/unloading docks.

All that infrastructure built for the shipping industry, gone. But it's not just going to be on land, where bulldozers and cranes can get to it to clean it all up- it's going to be in the water, too, where divers and salvation crews will have to pick it out of the water. And we thought the destruction in Florida was bad....this is going to be absolutely awful.

It will take a while to get electricity working, as we have already discussed, but what about just cleaning the city up? If it's a few weeks to get power back, and another week beyond that to get all the water pumped out, there's a month min. before you can start cleanup.

And this is in a MAJOR US port.

[Manu20]

000
Fxus64 Klix 282153 Aaa
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans La
452 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 28 2005

.update...to Add Tornado Watch #752.

.discussion...
Southeast Louisiana Seems Poised For A Date With Destiny As
Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Continues To Keep A Bead On Barataria
Bay And The Greater New Orleans Area. The Gfs Model Continues To
Be Superior In Its Handling Of The System Inasmuch As To Base The
Conventional Forecast Parameters With Good Integrity And In
Agreement With Nhc Advisories.

Needless To Say...the Worst Can Be Anticipated And Urgency Is
Being Stressed In All Products As A Worst Case Hurricane Scenario
For This Very Fragile And Vulnerable Stretch Of U.s. Coastline.
The Eye Is Emerging On The Klix Long Range Loop And Bands Are
Extending To Lake Pontchartrain At This Time. Things Will Be
Detiorating Steadily From This Point Forward For The Next 24
Hours.

Will Maintain All Warnings As Already Posted As Well As The Flash
Flood Watch. Storm Prediction Center Has Advised That The First
Tornado Watch Of The Event Will Likely Be Issued For The Region
Early This Evening...probably Right After Sunset.

Most Attention With This Package Was Day 1-2 With Little If Any
Changes Made Beyond Day 3. Good Luck And Godspeed To All In The
Path Of This Storm.

[Trainwreck2100]

French Quarter??

After this is all drained and gone.

The French Quarter will be no more.

All the history of that area just taken away overnight.

Amazing.

No more Mardi Gras.

:pctoss


With a ~20-25 foot storm surge....I cannot begin to fathom the destruction to casinos, marinas, and loading/unloading docks.

All that infrastructure built for the shipping industry, gone. But it's not just going to be on land, where bulldozers and cranes can get to it to clean it all up- it's going to be in the water, too, where divers and salvation crews will have to pick it out of the water. And we thought the destruction in Florida was bad....this is going to be absolutely awful.

It will take a while to get electricity working, as we have already discussed, but what about just cleaning the city up? If it's a few weeks to get power back, and another week beyond that to get all the water pumped out, there's a month min. before you can start cleanup.

And this is in a MAJOR US port.


Same thing happened to Galveston in 1900, I wonder what this will do to the Houston economy because some ships will prob have to be rerouted there.

[T Park]

everything expected to port in NO, will have to port in Galveston.

[Shelly]

Extended power outages expected in EBR


By MIKE DUNNE

Advocate staff writer



Parish officials warned the public Sunday that Hurricane Katrina will likely cause an extended period of power outages – something like that endured after 1992’s Hurricane Andrew.



The state Office of Climatology said Katrina is a lot like 1969’s Hurricane Camille, which devastated the Mississippi Gulf Coast – except Katrina is larger. Officials urged people who don’t have a reason to travel to stay off the streets from 7 p.m. this evening until the storm passes, which will likely be about sunset on Monday.



Basically, the parish will be shut down Monday and Tuesday, said parish Chief Administrative Officer Walter Monsour during a meeting of emergency response officials Sunday morning.



Residents are urged to be prepared to live without electrical power for a week or possibly longer in some cases.



Jefferson and Orleans parishes have both called for dusk-to-dawn curfews, officials said. Additionally, Jefferson Parish Public Information Officer Jacquie Bauer said law enforcement officers plan to challenge anyone driving during the curfew to determine if they need to be out or not.

Nagin announced in a press conference that officers in Orleans also will be watching for people who are out during the curfew period.



Katrina continued its march northward through the Gulf of Mexico Sunday and was tracking right along the National Hurricane Center’s projected path. It is projected to come ashore in Barataria Bay on Monday morning, move over New Orleans or just east of the city, over Lake Borgne and into the Mississippi-Louisiana border before hooking into Mississippi once well inland.



The storm was in the strongest class of tropical weather – a Class 5 hurricane packing 175-mile-per-hour winds. There may be some diminishing of winds before landfall, but it will still be at least a strong Category 4 storm.

Even being more than 100 miles from the Gulf of Mexico, East Baton Rouge and the surrounding area will still get hit with high winds and some occasional heavy rainfall, officials said.



“This is not going to be a power outage for a day or two — two or three days and back to normal,” said parish Chief Administrative Officer Walter Monsour, filling in for an out-of-town Mayor-President Kip Holden. “Unless God sends us a blessing,” he added Sunday morning to assembled emergency response officials from public agencies and private companies such as utilities and hospitals.



“This is going to be a long-term situation,” Monsour emphasized.

Bill Benedetto of Entergy said his company, which serves most of the Baton Rouge area as well as most of New Orleans and the low-lying parishes to the south of it, that the company expects to have to rebuild its entire grid in some places, such as St. Bernard, Plaquemines and parts of Terrebonne parishes. “It could be weeks – even months – before everybody is back on,” he said.



The storm to bring winds of 20-30 miles per hour this evening, increasing to 30-40 miles per hour overnight. Early in the morning, tropical storm force winds will arrive. By 9 a.m. Monday, winds of about 30-45 miles per hour are expected. “We will have 12-15 hours of 35-mile-per-hour winds” or greater with gusts of 70 miles per hour or greater, especially associated with thunderstorms and rain bands spun off of Katrina, which will be to the area’s east.



Benedetto said Entergy will assess damage, create a plan and attack the work to be done. Robin Keller of DEMCO said that utility, which services Central, the Baker-Zachary area and some sections of the Sherwood Forest and Millerville areas, will do the same.



Keller said that while it might not make sense, in the wake of the storm some grids that get power back could temporarily lose electricity so crews can restore others’ power. “That way we know every line is safe and the guys can hustle.”



She reminded everyone to treat downed wires as if they were live.

Both Benedetto and Keller said they have already summoned and staged repair crews – but both utilities suffer from the fact that some workers that might normally be called upon are repairing damage from Katrina’s first landfall in South Florida.



Department of Public Works Assistant Director Jeff Broussard said his crews won’t start cleanup until winds drop below 35 miles per hour. He said they often work hand-in-hand with Entergy and DEMCO to make sure that power lines are not hot before trying to clear trees.



Metro Airport Director Anthony Marino said Delta Airline’s last fight out will be at 6:30 p.m. Sunday and Northwest Airlines will suspend service at 4:30 p.m. He said he has not heard from other airlines yet, but expected to be closed down by 7 p.m. and he expects no departures in the morning, either.



Lt. Col. Mark Oxley of Louisiana State Police said many people in the New Orleans area are just now evacuating. “Contraflow,” or using all lanes of an interstate highway in one direction, continues on Interstate 10 from Clearview Parkway to the intersections of I-10 and I-55 where I-55 becomes four lanes out of the area well past the intersection of Interstate 12. I-10 goes back to flowing in both directions at the LaPlace interchange.



Contraflow is also occurring on Interstate 59 out of Slidell. The process will be reversed after the storm to let people back in more quickly once an all-clear has been issued, he said.



Traffic on I-10 going west should be heavy all day long. Anyone with traffic concerns can call State Police at 1-800-469-4828, Oxley said.

Officials from both public and Catholic schools announced schools will be closed Monday and Tuesday and a decision beyond that would be made after the storm passes.



Kenilworth Middle School is being used as a shelter and an official from American Red Cross said plans were in the works to open others as needed. Superintendent of Schools Charlotte Placide said both Tara and Woodlawn high schools were on standby to open as shelters.



Evacuations had been ordered in most of southeastern Louisiana as Katrina moved toward the Louisiana coast.



New Orleans he said.



Traffic on I-10 going west should be heavy all day long. Anyone with traffic concerns can call State Police at 1-800-469-4828, Oxley said.

Officials from both public and Catholic schools announced schools will be closed Monday and Tuesday and a decision beyond that would be made after the storm passes.



Kenilworth Middle School is being used as a shelter and an official from American Red Cross said plans were in the works to open others as needed. Superintendent of Schools Charlotte Placide said both Tara and Woodlawn high schools were on standby to open as shelters.



Evacuations had been ordered in most of southeastern Louisiana as Katrina moved toward the Louisiana coast.



New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation Sunday. He said he knew a large number of people, many of them stranded tourists, would be unable to leave, so the city set up 10 places of last resort for people to go, including the Superdome.



The mayor called the order unprecedented and said anyone who could leave the city should. He exempted hotels from the evacuation order because airlines had already cancelled all flights.



“We are facing a storm that most of us have long feared,” Nagin said.

The storm surge most likely could topple the city’s levee system, which protects it from surrounding waters of Lake Pontchartrain, the Mississippi River and marshes, the mayor said. The bowl-shaped city must pump water out during normal times, and the hurricane threatened pump power.



“This is a once in a lifetime event,” the mayor said. “The city of New Orleans has never seen a hurricane of this magnitude hit it directly.”



He told those who had to move to the Superdome to come with enough food for several days and with blankets. He said it will be a very uncomfortable place and encouraged everybody who could to get out.



A radio station in New Orleans reported that Jefferson planned to sandbag U.S. 61, Airline Highway, at the St. Charles Parish line beginning at 5 p.m., which would close down traffic on that key roadway. The station also reported the parish has issues a dusk-to-dawn curfew.



State Police reported that south Louisiana interstates are heavily congested and suggested motorists use some alternate routes of travel when exiting New Orleans. They recommend:

La. Highway 3127 to La. Highway 70 to La Highway 1 north.

U.S. Highway 90 west to I-49 north.

U.S. Highway 61 north.

I-10 east to I-59 north.

Causeway to I-12 west to I-55 north.

I-10 west to I-55 north.

The Associated Press cont

[Kori Ellis]

I'm uneducated on this subject and have a few questions:

Is this is expected to be the worst hurricane in U.S. history? Are the winds stronger than any other we've had? Or is it because it's so big?

Is there a chance it can somehow change path at all and be less destructive .. not slam directly into N.O.?

[Samr]

Think about the crowd control in the Superdome. Looting won't be a big deal in the city, because unless the theifs have boats there is a logistical problem, but you get all those tens of thousands of people packed in uncomfortable seating, with emotions running high knowing there are people drowning and dieing outside. People are going to snap. Human nature is going to take over and mob mentality will rule.

They better get that place STOCKED with security. I know they're taking away guns and alcohol, which is smart for obvious reasons, but these people are going to snap.

They better mainline pepper spray into those water hoses. Crowd control, Alamodome-style

[Samr]

Is there a chance it can somehow change path at all and be less destructive .. not slam directly into N.O.?

The worst part of the storm is always to the east. If it hits slightly to the west of New Orleans, that is the worst possible scenario. If it hits to the East, that is the best possible scenario- for New Orleans. A dead-on hit is obviously middling the two scenarios.

As far as chances go, here's a quick answer:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205P_sm2+gif/205423P_sm.gif

Storms are unpredictable, especially ones of this size. When I was young, we almost got obliterated by a Cat 3 hurricane in Hawaii, but it took a 90 degree turn less than a mile off-shore and a matter of hours away. Missed us completely.

ANYTHING is possible, but the most likely scenario is a hit in the N.O./Mobile area. But with a storm this size, a few miles in either direction is not going to make much of a difference. If you are on the Lousiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida coasts (for the areas involved), bend over and kiss your ass goodbye. You might not take a direct hit, but you ARE going to take a hit.

[ChumpDumper]

I'm uneducated on this subject and have a few questions:

Is this is expected to be the worst hurricane in U.S. history? Are the winds stronger than any other we've had? Or is it because it's so big?It's in the top three so far in terms of barometric pressure AND it's huge.

[ChumpDumper]

I thought hitting west of NO would lessen the storm surge.

[Ginofan]

I think most people regaurd Camille and Andrew as the worst hurricanes the US has seen. Both Camille and Andrew had a higher pressure at landfall than Katrina has right now. If Katrina continues on it's path and remains the same in strength and what-not, IMO it'll be the worst hurricane in US history.

Even if it doesn't hit NO directly, I think the effects will still be really really bad...especially if it hits to the east. All that water (Lake area) will see extremely high storm surges which will probably lead to tons of flooding.

[Manu20]

If it hits to the East, that is the best possible scenario- for New Orleans.
I disagree because the wind is going to come of Lake Pontchartrain and flood New Orleans. The way it is looking now is that it is going to hit about 15 to 25 miles east of New Orleans.

[j-6]

It's in the top three so far in terms of barometric pressure AND it's huge.


This damage this one's going to cause will make Camille look like a fart in a swimming pool. The sheer amount of those poor people stuck there is heartbreaking. It's hard to believe that in this day and age 100K people are stuck without anyway to get out and are being forced to take Katrina's wrath on the chin.

Fuck.

[ChumpDumper]

Fox News is showing the requisite stupid white folk standing on Alabama jetties as the surge rolls in.

[Samr]

I disagree because the wind is going to come of Lake Pontchartrain and flood New Orleans. The way it is looking now is that it is going to hit about 15 to 25 miles east of New Orleans.

Well like I said, nothing is good. New Orleans is not exactly in the best of places. They have so many things working against them, it's just pick your poison.

It's really easy to go off on worst-case-scenario, because everything can compound so quickly. Hopefully the levees will hold, because if they can do that then a lot of the Death by _X_ scenarios will be null and void. But if the city floods, it's anybody's guess as to what happens.

I don't think a 15 or 20 mile variance in either direction will make a huge difference. Would you rather get clipped by an 18 wheeler or hit it head on? Either way, you're pretty much dead.

To put it lightly.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm uneducated on this subject and have a few questions:

Is this is expected to be the worst hurricane in U.S. history? Are the winds stronger than any other we've had? Or is it because it's so big?

Is there a chance it can somehow change path at all and be less destructive .. not slam directly into N.O.?
As for part 2 of your question, there is always a chance of a sudtle change in direction right up until these storms are dead. We don't understand them perfectly by any means, and it could wobble or do things of that nature.

But to tell you the truth, this is going to hit New Orleans unless an act of God takes place. There is no reason meterologicaly at this time to anticipate anything more than a slight deviation to either side of NO, but I woudln't even count on that.

In terms of strength, I would rate this as the strongest storm every to come ashore in the United States for several reasons:

The preasure of the storm is lower than both Camille and Andrew. Camille had stronger winds, but that is due to its more compact size. The entire amount of energy being expended by this storm is greater than what Camille expended. In other words, just because the winds are a little bit weaker it doesn't really matter because the area they cover is MUCH larger than Camille or Andrew.

But, this storm is hitting at the worst place it possibly could. I basically don't see how this could be anything but the worst natural disaster in the history of the US.

So, to me, Katrina is the strongest storm ever to make landfall on US soil. But it really is an academic debate and nothing more. No one wants to be around any storm of anything near this size.

[Manu20]

I thought hitting west of NO would lessen the storm surge.
No, it would be worse. A hurricane has counter clock wise winds so if it would hit west of NO the wind would come from the south (on shore) and if it were to hit to the east it would be a North wind (off shore).

[j-6]

I know I posted this earlier, but this is the feed from the New Orleans CBS affiliate in case anyone wants it.

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

[MannyIsGod]

There is no good place for this to hit, east or west. They are screwed either way from one thing or another.

[MannyIsGod]

Because NO has as north shore, hitting west would provide it relief from some of the storm surge due to the circulation. But they would also get a longer period of stronger winds, and the storm surge would probably be enough to overwhelm the system either way.

[ChumpDumper]

"Off shore"? You mean "other shore."

[MannyIsGod]

If it passes slightly to the east of NO, you will see the worst flooding scenario, but relief from winds. At first, winds will push water into Lake Ponchawhatever, then as the storm passed and the winds turned, they would push water directly into NO.

[Samr]

A hurricane has counter clock wise winds so if it would hit west of NO the wind would come from the south (on shore) and if it were to hit to the east it would be a North wind (off shore).

Basically, would you rather be pushed inland by a 20-foot storm surge (Katrina hits west), or would you rather be pushed out to sea by 160 mph winds (Katrina hits east)?

Well now I know where I'm NOT sending a college application.

[Trainwreck2100]

From what I saw it would be best to get hit with the East side, yes it's the strongest winds but it may keep the lake from being pushed over and that is the weaker levy.

[MannyIsGod]

Basically, would you rather be pushed inland by a 20-foot storm surge (Katrina hits west), or would you rather be pushed out to sea by 160 mph winds (Katrina hits east)?

Well now I know where I'm NOT sending a college application.s

The best case scenario is Katrina hits west. They are better off dealing with winds and less flooding. The water is what is really going to screw up the city.

[T Park]

two morons standing on a jettie.


One holding a surfboard.

If I was the coast guard, id say, you go in, your fault, we aint savin ya.

[Samr]

And this thing is tracking slightly to the east, right?

I'm beyond the point of sympathy for these idiots that are trying to ride out the storm. Not the ones who can't leave for whatever reason, but the ones who WON'T leave.

Dude, I do not care if you built your restaurant by hand and have been shucking oysters just to feed your family for the past 20 years. It is your LIFE you are worried about, not some stupid principle. Git' yer ass out NOW. Katrina is not going to give two shits about whether you are holding down the fort or whether you are 500 miles away. Your restaurant/shop/house/shanty is getting trashed either way.

[Samr]

A direct hit from a powerful hurricane on New Orleans could furnish perhaps the largest natural catastrophe ever experienced on U.S. soil. Some estimates suggest that well over 25,000 non-evacuees could die. Many more would be stranded, and successful evacuees would have nowhere to return to. Damages could run as high as $100 billion. In the wake of such a tragedy, some may even question the wisdom of trying to rebuild the city at all.

link (http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=9754)

[boutons]

I can't think about levees without thinking about :

A M E R I C A N P I E

A long, long time ago... I can still remember how
That music used to make me smile.
And I knew if I had my chance,
That I could make those people dance,
And maybe they'd be happy for a while.

But February made me shiver,
With every paper I'd deliver,
Bad news on the doorstep...
I couldn't take one more step.

I can't remember if I cried
When I read about his widowed bride
But something touched me deep inside,
The day the music died.

Soo..Bye, bye miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry
And good ol' boys were drinking whisky and rye?
Singing this will be the day that I die
this will be the day that I die

Did you write the book of love
And do you have faith in God above
If the Bible tells you so
Do you believe in rock n roll
Can music save your mortal soul
Then you can teach me to dance real slow

Well I know that you're in love with him
'Cause I saw you dancing in the gym
You both kicked off your shoes
Then I dig those rhythm and blues

I was a lonely teenage broncin' buck
With a pink carnation and a pickup truck
but I knew that I was out of luck
The day the music died

I started singin'...

Bye, bye miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry
And good ol' boys were drinking whisky and rye?
Singing this will be the day that I die
this will be the day that I die

Now for 10 years we've been on our own
And moss grows fat on a rolling stone
But that's not how it used to be

When the jester sang for the king and queen
In a coat he borrowed from James Dean
In a voice that came from you and me

And while the King was looking down
The jester stole his thorny crown
The courtroom was adjourned
No verdict was returned

While Lennon read the book of Marx
The quartet kept practice in the park
And we sang dirges in the dark
The day the music died

We were singin'

Bye, bye miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry
And good ol' boys were drinking whisky and rye?
Singing this will be the day that I die
this will be the day that I die

Helter Skelter in a summer swelter
The birds flew off with the fallout shelter
Eight miles high and falling fast

It landed foul on the grass
The players tried for a forward pass
With the jester on the sidelines in a cast

Now the halftime air was sweet perfume
While sergeants played a marching tune
We all got up to dance
Oh, but we never got the chance

'Cause the players tried to take the field,
The marching band refused to yield.

Do you recall what was revealed,
The day the music died?
We started singing

Bye, bye miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry
And good ol' boys were drinking whisky and rye?
Singing this will be the day that I die
this will be the day that I die

There we were all in one place
A generation lost in space With no time left to start again
So come on Jack be nimble, Jack be quick
Jack Flash sat on a candle stick
'Cause fire is the devil's only friend.

As I watched him on the stage
My hands were clenched in fists of rage
No angel born in hell
Could break that satan's spell

And as flames climbed high into the night
To light the sacrificial rite
I saw satan laughing with delight
the day the music died.

I met a girl who sang the blues
And I asked her for some happy news
But she just smiled and turned away

I went down to the sacred store
Where I'd heard the music years before
But the man there said the music wouldn't play

And in the streets the children screamed
The lovers cried and the poets dreamed
But not a word was spoken
The church bells all were broken

And the three men I admire most
The Father Son and Holy Ghost
They caught the last train for the coast
The day the music died

They were singin'

Bye, bye miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry
And good ol' boys were drinking whisky and rye?
Singing this will be the day that I die
this will be the day that I die

[Manu20]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html


The 4:38pm EDT NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission found a central pressure of 903 mb, up from the 902 measured at 3:30pm. These pressures make Katrina the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Gulf of Mexico, surpassing Camille. Although the pressure has stopped falling, there is no indication that Katrina is about to undergo weakening, like we saw yesterday during her eyewall replacement cycle. When that cycle started, the eye diameter was 9 nm, but the present eye diameter is 25 nm. Eyewall replacement cycles usually begin when the eye shrinks below 10 nm, and there are no indications that Katrina's eye is going to shrink.

The list of strongest hurricanes of all time now reads:

Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)

The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)

Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)

Hurricane Katrina (902 mb, 2005)

Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)

Landfall location and intensity
Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since the evacuation order was given too late to get all the people out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knoick down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.

I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; Katrina will still be a hurricane 180 miles inland, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you in Katrina's way, and I urge all readers of this blog to do the same.

Jeff Masters

[j-6]

U.S. Composite Satellite Animation:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

[Samr]

CNN's Titan Radar is estimating "extensive and widespread" power outages in New Orleans.

I could have told you that. And I don't need "Titan" in my name to make it anymore accurate.

Although that would be cool.

[MannyIsGod]

Landfall location and intensity
Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since the evacuation order was given too late to get all the people out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knoick down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.

I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; Katrina will still be a hurricane 180 miles inland, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you in Katrina's way, and I urge all readers of this blog to do the same.

Jeff Masters

[T Park]

some may even question the wisdom of trying to rebuild the city at all.

So some are ready to turn New Orleans into a swamp area, and never work on it again?


Wow.

[MannyIsGod]

lol, Manu beat me to it.

[Samr]

So some are ready to turn New Orleans into a swamp area, and never work on it again?

Oh I don't think THEY will be the ones turning it.

[ChumpDumper]

I am kind of shocked that so few of the dome folks are wearing any rain gear - it is in the forecast after all.

[MannyIsGod]

12,000 people in the superdome. I can't believe that the rest got out of NO. There's a lot of people in danger.

[Trainwreck2100]

some may even question the wisdom of trying to rebuild the city at all.

If they don't rebuild then the hurricane wins. Hurricanes everywhere will get the urge to attack America.

[T Park]

If they don't rebuild then the hurricane wins. Hurricanes everywhere will get the urge to attack America.

:rolleyes

[cherylsteele]

but NOLA has been bascailly right in the middle of the cone since thursday.

No, it wasn't.


The original track had passing over Florida and turning immediately to north and making a direct impact on the Florida panhandle.

They (national hurricane center) predicted a Cat 3 storm at worst originally.

[cherylsteele]

Ivan was Cat 3 and NO survived that

NO didn't take a direct hit from Ivan....it was nearer Mobile than NO.

[boutons]

hurricane force winds, 75 mph minimum, extending a radius of 100 miles from eye, moving at 13 mph.

That's 200 mi / 13 mi/h = 15 hours of hurricane force winds.

anything getting pounded for 15 hours at 75 - 150 mph windes aint gonna be worth shit.

Pat Robertson will soon be announcing that God sent this hurricane to punish NO for harboring a gay and lesbian community. :)

[ChumpDumper]

ok, there are more white folk out on the Alabama seawall than before. WTF?

[GINNNNNNNNNNNNOBILI]

Don't forget to fill up your gas tanks tonight, prices are expected to raise drastically tomorrow

[MannyIsGod]

Boutons, you say that in jest but I do think we'll see some crazy ass preachers hijack this catastrophe and use it as a preaching tool. Thats a damn shame.

[Horry For 3!]

Don't forget to fill up your gas tanks tonight, prices are expected to raise drastically tomorrow
Yes. My mom's friend does oil tank stuff. He called my mom and told everyone to fill up tonight because the oil fields in Louisisana are down. It is suppose to go up a dollar, maybe more.

I filled up to a full tank. :tu

[boutons]

The New York Times
August 28, 2005

Hurricane Could Leave 1 Million Homeless

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 6:55 p.m. ET

When Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans on Monday, it could turn one of America's most charming cities into a vast cesspool tainted with toxic chemicals, human waste and even coffins released by floodwaters from the city's legendary cemeteries.

Experts have warned for years that the levees and pumps that usually keep New Orleans dry have no chance against a direct hit by a Category 5 storm.

That's exactly what Katrina was as it churned toward the city. With top winds of 165 mph and the power to lift sea level by as much as 28 feet above normal, the storm threatened an environmental disaster of biblical proportions, one that could leave more than 1 million people homeless.

''All indications are that this is absolutely worst-case scenario,'' Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center, said Sunday afternoon.

The center's latest computer simulations indicate that by Tuesday, vast swaths of New Orleans could be under water up to 30 feet deep. In the French Quarter, the water could reach 20 feet, easily submerging the district's iconic cast-iron balconies and bars.

Estimates predict that 60 percent to 80 percent of the city's houses will be destroyed by wind. With the flood damage, most of the people who live in and around New Orleans could be homeless.

''We're talking about in essence having -- in the continental United States -- having a refugee camp of a million people,'' van Heerden said.

Aside from Hurricane Andrew, which struck Miami in 1992, forecasters have no experience with Category 5 hurricanes hitting densely populated areas.

''Hurricanes rarely sustain such extreme winds for much time. However we see no obvious large-scale effects to cause a substantial weakening the system and it is expected that the hurricane will be of Category 4 or 5 intensity when it reaches the coast,'' National Hurricane Center meteorologist Richard Pasch said.

As they raced to put meteorological instruments in Katrina's path Sunday, wind engineers had little idea what their equipment would record.

''We haven't seen something this big since we started the program,'' said Kurt Gurley, a University of Florida engineering professor. He works for the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program, which is in its seventh year of making detailed measurements of hurricane wind conditions using a set of mobile weather stations.

Experts have warned about New Orleans' vulnerability for years, chiefly because Louisiana has lost more than a million acres of coastal wetlands in the past seven decades. The vast patchwork of swamps and bayous south of the city serves as a buffer, partially absorbing the surge of water that a hurricane pushes ashore.

Experts have also warned that the ring of high levees around New Orleans, designed to protect the city from floodwaters coming down the Mississippi, will only make things worse in a powerful hurricane. Katrina is expected to push a 28-foot storm surge against the levees. Even if they hold, water will pour over their tops and begin filling the city as if it were a sinking canoe.

After the storm passes, the water will have nowhere to go.

In a few days, van Heerden predicts, emergency management officials are going to be wondering how to handle a giant stagnant pond contaminated with building debris, coffins, sewage and other hazardous materials.

''We're talking about an incredible environmental disaster,'' van Heerden said.

He puts much of the blame for New Orleans' dire situation on the very levee system that is designed to protect southern Louisiana from Mississippi River floods.

Before the levees were built, the river would top its banks during floods and wash through a maze of bayous and swamps, dropping fine-grained silt that nourished plants and kept the land just above sea level.

The levees ''have literally starved our wetlands to death'' by directing all of that precious silt out into the Gulf of Mexico, van Heerden said.

It has been 40 years since New Orleans faced a hurricane even comparable to Katrina. In 1965, Hurricane Betsy, a Category 3 storm, submerged some parts of the city to a depth of seven feet.

Since then, the Big Easy has had nothing but near misses. In 1998, Hurricane Georges headed straight for New Orleans, then swerved at the last minute to strike Mississippi and Alabama. Hurricane Lili blew herself out at the mouth of the Mississippi in 2002. And last year's Hurricane Ivan obligingly curved to the east as it came ashore, barely grazing a grateful city.

* Copyright 2005 The Associated Press

[angel_luv]

Yes. My mom's friend does oil tank stuff. He called my mom and told everyone to fill up tonight because the oil fields in Louisisana are down. It is suppose to go up a dollar, maybe more.

I filled up to a full tank. :tu


Thanks for telling me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am going now>

[boutons]

Battle of New Orleans

Music and lyrics by Jimmy Driftwood: Jimmy Driftwood was a high school principal and history teacher who loved to sing, play instruments and write songs. Mr. Driftwood wrote many songs, all for the sole purpose of helping his students learn about this battle and other historical events. But this song turned out to be so popular that it won the 1959 Grammy Award for Song Of The Year (awarded in 1960 for musical accomplishments in 1959). Johnny Horton also won the 1959 Grammy Award for Best Country And Western Performance for his recording of this song. "The Battle of New Orleans," is about a battle in the War of 1812, and it became one of the biggest selling hits of 1959. Students might also be interested to know that there is a movie called "The Buccaneer" about the Battle of New Orleans. It is interesting to reflect on the fact that despite the turbulant early relationship between England and the American colonists, our two countries have long since been strongly united. The words were written to correspond with an old fiddle tune called "The 8th of January," which is the date of the famous "Battle of New Orleans".

Narrative by Jimmy Driftwood:

“After the Battle of New Orleans, which Andrew Jackson won on January the 8th eighteen and fifteen, the boys played the fiddle again that night, only they changed the name of it from the battle of a place in Ireland to the “Eighth of January”. Years passed and in about nineteen and forty-five an Arkansas school teacher slowed the tune down and put words to it and that song is The Battle Of New Orleans and I will try to sing it for you.” (*Note -- two minor revisions were made for classroom use)

The lyrics:

Well, in eighteen and fourteen we took a little trip
along with Colonel Jackson down the mighty Mississip.
We took a little bacon and we took a little beans,
And we caught the bloody British near the town of New Orleans.

We fired our guns and the British kept a'comin.
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago.
We fired once more and they began to runnin'
down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

Well, I see'd Mars Jackson walkin down the street
talkin’ to a pirate by the name of Jean Lafayette [pronounced La-feet]
He gave Jean a drink that he brung from Tennessee
and the pirate said he’d help us drive the British in the sea.

The French said Andrew, you’d better run,
for Packingham’s a comin’ with a bullet in his gun.
Old Hickory said he didn’t give a dang,
he’s gonna whip the britches off of Colonel Packingham.

We fired our guns and the British kept a'comin.
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago.
We fired once more and they began to runnin'
down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

Well, we looked down the river and we see'd the British come,
and there must have been a hundred of 'em beatin' on the drum.
They stepped so high and they made their bugles ring
while we stood by our cotton bales and didn't say a thing.

Old Hickory said we could take 'em by surprise
if we didn't fire a musket til we looked 'em in the eyes.
We held our fire til we see'd their faces well,
then we opened up with squirrel guns and really gave a yell.

We fired our guns and the British kept a'comin.
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago.
We fired once more and they began to runnin'
down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

Well, we fired our cannon til the barrel melted down,
so we grabbed an alligator and we fought another round.
We filled his head with cannon balls and powdered his behind,
and when they tetched the powder off, the gator lost his mind.

We’ll march back home but we’ll never be content
till we make Old Hickory the people’s President.
And every time we think about the bacon and the beans,
we’ll think about the fun we had way down in New Orleans.

We fired our guns and the British kept a'comin,
But there wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago.
We fired once more and they began to runnin'
down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

Well, they ran through the briars and they ran through the brambles
And they ran through the bushes where a rabbit couldn't go.
They ran so fast the hounds couldn't catch 'em
down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

We fired our guns and the British kept a'comin.
But there wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago.
We fired once more and they began to runnin'
down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

[Horry For 3!]

Thanks for telling me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am going now>
That would be smart. :tu I had a little lower than half a tank so I filled it up to full. I start college back up Tuesday and its 35 - 40 mins away so it uses up gas.

[j-6]

Manny, where'd you get 12,000 in the Superdome from? I thought I just heard that there's still a four hour wait to get in.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats how many CNN was saying they have in there right now. There are still more trying to get in.

[j-6]

OK. That local feed I'm watching showed a shot of the Poydras St entrance with a line wrapping around the building.

They also showed a Bourbon St bar full of idiots screaming at the camera.

[Horry For 3!]

Manny, where'd you get 12,000 in the Superdome from? I thought I just heard that there's still a four hour wait to get in.
I just heard on the Weather Channel that they were tryin to get in 10,000 or some shit like that.

[Ginofan]

people inside and still waiting outside total 12,000...I don't think they've stated exactly how many are in already.

[Ginofan]

Biloxi will have people arrested out on the streets after 9PM.

[timvp]

It sucks hardcore that all these people are going to die. It's going to dwarf the WTC tragedy most likely.

This does look like must see TV, though. Two questions:

What time should I start watching?

What is the best channel to watch?

Thanks.

:smokin

[Horry For 3!]

It sucks hardcore that all these people are going to die. It's going to dwarf the WTC tragedy most likely.

This does look like must see TV, though. Two questions:

What time should I start watching?

What is the best channel to watch?

Thanks.

:smokin
Weather Channel?

[Ginofan]

CNN and FoxNews have been running coverage nonstop...and the local news feed someone posted is good to watch too.

[angel_luv]

That would be smart. :tu I had a little lower than half a tank so I filled it up to full. I start college back up Tuesday and its 35 - 40 mins away so it uses up gas.


I'm back!

I bought my gas at Sam's because I get the membership discount.

I was just telling my room mate that my gas only cost me $2.25 a gallon when I realized what a sad statement that is.

[Manu20]

It sucks hardcore that all these people are going to die. It's going to dwarf the WTC tragedy most likely.

This does look like must see TV, though. Two questions:

What time should I start watching?

What is the best channel to watch?

Thanks.

:smokin

Late tonight and most of the day tomorrow.

Weather Channel

[MannyIsGod]

The local feed is pretty awesome



But here's a WAG on what I think MAY be happening with this storm. As discussed yesterday, there really has never been such
an intense storm in the Atlantic region that has been able to maintain this type of intensity for very long. 24 hours is about the
longest on record, and 12 hours is probably the average. EVERY storm I know of in which we have been able to observe eye wall
replacement cycles has always gone through the process to some degree. It's now been 24 hours since the last cycle finished. And at the
moment, satellite imagery and the RECON data shows that the eyewall is clearly expanding. It never was able to get lower than 20NM
early this morning. Last night I conjectured that we may have seen an eye wall replacement cycle start this evening, and if it went
slowly, the storm would weaken some before making landfall. (This is in addition to the potential for some light wind
shear impacting the system before landfall.) At the risk of hitting enter on this, only to see Katrina begin a real eye wall cycling begin, I
am wondering if what we are going to actually see is a 'pulsation effect' where the exiting eye wall expands out to say 40NM, and then
shrinks back down towards 20NM by morning. And because there are absolutely no other known environmental variable (except some light
shear in the NW quadrant by morning....) this would result in some additional easing of winds during the next few hours, followed by
an increase back up to as much as 175mph winds again by daybreak. If this process actually unfolds,...I don't think I will be going to get
much sleep tonight.


Thats just a theory, but one that holds some watching. The storm appears to be weakening a bit now, but because there really is nothing to weaken it, I think it will regain strength again later tonight.

[angel_luv]

The local feed is pretty awesome




Thats just a theory, but one that holds some watching. The storm appears to be weakening a bit now, but because there really is nothing to weaken it, I think it will regain strength again later tonight.


Maybe it is weakening! I know there are plenty of people praying that that is the case

[MannyIsGod]

If I read the last VORTEX message correctly, the eye is "open" to the SW. That could indicate an eye wall replacement cycle begining!!! That would be AWESOME news.

[missmyzte]

I just filled up my gas tank, paid $2.81/gallon. Sucks to think how high gas prices are going to go up after this. However, I'd rather pay high gas prices than risk being in that area right now.

Watching Fox News, they showed people - including families - hanging out on the beach just watching the water. This includes toddles and other children running around, how stupid are these parents? That's child endangerment! If you want to sacrifice yourself, that's your own thing, but don't risk the kids.

[missmyzte]

If I read the last VORTEX message correctly, the eye is "open" to the SW. That could indicate an eye wall replacement cycle begining!!! That would be AWESOME news.

Forgive my ignorance, but what is an eye wall replacement?

[Manu20]

As of 7pm winds are down to 160 mph. Down 5 mph since 4pm.

[nkdlunch]

what time is it supposed to land??

[Ginofan]

winds dropped to 160mph and the direction had changed to the north-northwest.

[angel_luv]

Forgive my ignorance, but what is an eye wall replacement?

You are not alone. I would like to know too!

[Trainwreck2100]

Maybe it is weakening! I know there are plenty of people praying that that is the case

I'm more worried about where it lands.

[Horry For 3!]

CNN is showing a lot of information on Katrina.

[j-6]

NNW @11 mph, windspeed down to 160, temp 89.1, pressure up to 904 millibar

[Horry For 3!]

They just said its suppose to land within 12 hours. Its suppose to be a 4 or 5 when it lands.

[j-6]

Gov Blanco is on that WWL broadcast.

[MannyIsGod]

It is a cycle that all intense hurricanes usually go through. They can take anywhere from 4-18 hours and they usually involve the eye wall disintergrating and an outer eyewall moving in and taking its place.

While this happens the storm weakens and can lose around 30mph in wind speed.

The flipside is that if that is exactly what happens, after the cycle completes it can rapidly regain strength and get stronger.

It spent yesterday undergoing one of these cycles and spent last night and this morning blowing up and getting stronger.

But if the cycle can start now, it might hold up untill landfall and weaken the storm somewhat. It would still be a very strong storm, but its the best NO can hope for at this point.

[Manu20]

Forgive my ignorance, but what is an eye wall replacement?
During the eyewall replacement cycle, the hurricane is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger.

[Spurfect]

I just went and read the LJ journal of a friend of mine who used to live in NO and now lives in NJ. Anyway, her ex-husband still lives in NO and she has a son who goes and stays with him at times. So I just read her entry talking about how she just talked to her son on the phone and he's over there in NO, just playing outside, and he's "not supposed to come back until Thursday" she talks about how she and her friends screwed around during Hurricane Andrew and how nothing happened to them. Seriously it's like she is not even worried about it.. and her little boy is over there?!?! omg... stupid stupid stupid

[missmyzte]

Thanks for the info on the eye wall replacement :)

[timvp]

One day they'll figure out how to bomb a hurricane to break it up. Too bad that day isn't here.

[MannyIsGod]

The energy in that Hurricane is probably more than all of the world's nuclear arsenal. It gets it's fuel form that big h-bomb in the sky.

[Trainwreck2100]

One day they'll figure out how to bomb a hurricane to break it up. Too bad that day isn't here.


The thought that in 1900 and it still hasn't happened yet so don't look for it anytime soon. Like it or not, the Earth needs these kinds of things. Obviously not this violent. but it is still needed.

[missmyzte]

The energy in that Hurricane is probably more than all of the world's nuclear arsenal. It gets it's fuel form that big h-bomb in the sky.

You seem to know a lot about hurricanes, do you just watch a lot of discovery channel or how did you learn all of this??
Thanks for the info, keep it coming.

[timvp]

The thought that in 1900 and it still hasn't happened yet so don't look for it anytime soon. Like it or not, the Earth needs these kinds of things. Obviously not this violent. but it is still needed.

They'll figure it out one day. Probably not soon, but one day.

[MannyIsGod]

mytze, I'm just a weather nerd. I just am really interested in this type of thing and have read up on it and try to follow along with what happens with them.

[SPARKY]

Not sure if this has been posted already, but anyways...

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash.htm



Urgent Weather Message from NWS New Orleans

WWUS74 KLIX 281550NPWLIXURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINAA MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. ATLEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.


CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATEADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...


AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...


BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEWCROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED.AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEARHURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE..


.ARECERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTUREOUTSIDE!LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

[rl64tx]

http://willthomas.net/Convergence/Weekly/Hurricanes.htm

I wonder if they are using the Dyn-o-gel again??

[missmyzte]

mytze, I'm just a weather nerd. I just am really interested in this type of thing and have read up on it and try to follow along with what happens with them.

Cool. Here's another question for you -- what's a millibar?? I'm hearing about it being 904 mb but don't know what that means.

[Shelly]

washingtonpost.com
States Prepare for Hurricane's Onslaught

The Associated Press
Sunday, August 28, 2005; 7:57 PM

GULFPORT, Miss. -- Mississippi's Gulf Coast rapidly emptied of even storm-hardened locals Sunday, leaving mostly deserted beaches, darkened casinos and boarded-up homes to face Hurricane Katrina.

"This is not a coastal storm," Gov. Haley Barbour warned. "We are talking about a 30 foot wall of water. Take this seriously."

Strong wind gusts already pounded coastal areas Sunday afternoon and conditions were expected to rapidly deteriorate. Evacuation orders were posted all along the coastal area.

Residents who remembered Hurricane Camille wanted no part of a repeat.

Camille, one of only three Category 5 hurricanes to hit the U.S. mainland since 1900, struck on the night of Aug. 17, 1969.

Winds of more than 200 mph flattened buildings and tossed boats across a beach-side highway that night. The tide surged to 24 feet, sending water over rooftops. In Mississippi alone, 131 people were killed.

"I expect maybe the frame of my building to be left," said Ron Roland, who owns a harbor shop at the Gulfport Marina. "I was here for Camille. It was unbelievable. It looked like an atom bomb went off around here."

___

PENSACOLA, Fla. (AP) _ Residents of several barrier islands in the western Florida Panhandle were urged to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Katrina.

Forecasters have warned that the Panhandle could be hit by wind gusts up to 55 mph, heavy rains and storm surge of 6 to 8 feet. The region has been hit by two hurricanes in less than a year.

"I'm just praying it stays on its current path and goes over to New Orleans. I feel for those people, but we've had enough in the last year," said Rusty Shaw, 25, who was getting ready to board up his home in Pensacola Beach, which was hit by Hurricane Ivan last year and Hurricane Dennis in July.

Katrina hit the southern tip of Florida on Thursday as a much weaker storm and was blamed for nine deaths. It left miles of streets and homes flooded and knocked out power to about 1.45 million customers.

Even though coastal areas in the Panhandle were under evacuation orders, traffic was heavy coming into the area from the west as Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama residents tried to get away from Katrina.

___

MOBILE, Ala. (AP) _ Traffic moved at a crawl along Alabama highways Sunday as the rain started pelting evacuees fleeing east and north in anticipation of Hurricane Katrina.

By nightfall water began crossing the road at Fort Morgan and pooling beneath homes on stilts. Emergency officials warned the hurricane could bring historic flood levels to Mobile's downtown riverfront and leave bayou and beachfront roads well under water.

"Those being evacuated just need to make sure they reach higher ground," Gov. Bob Riley said.

The traffic was almost bumper to bumper as far north as Greenville by late afternoon on Interstate 65, and on Interstate 10 from the Mississippi line to the Florida border, the top speed was 25 mph in some area as residents fled. State Trooper Cpl. Spencer Collier anticipated the congestion would last through the night.

___

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) _ Gov. Rick Perry sent a 90-member urban search and rescue team to Louisiana to help out as the hurricane hits and in its aftermath.

Texas Task Force One, part of the 28-team national urban search and rescue system under the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is trained and equipped to locate and rescue people trapped by flooding and collapsed structures.

Up to 200 members of the Texas State Guard also could be sent to southeast and eastern Texas to set up and run shelters for evacuees fleeing Louisiana.

___

PITTSBURGH (AP) _ The remnants of Hurricane Katrina could also spell trouble for dams hundreds of miles away.

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection is monitoring dams closely, fearing Katrina and its remnants could waterlog the region as the storm moves over land.

"We are concerned going into every hurricane season, and we are particularly concerned this year because of the forecast for a larger than normal number of hurricanes," said Dennis Dickey, chief of the DEP's Division of Dam Safety.

Remnants of Hurricane Ivan caused massive flooding in western Pennsylvania last fall.
© 2005 The Associated Press

[Samr]

Here's another question for you -- what's a millibar?? I'm hearing about it being 904 mb but don't know what that means.

dictionary.com- "A unit of atmospheric pressure equal to one thousandth (10-3) of a bar. Standard atmospheric pressure at sea level is about 1,013 millibars."

It's the Oh-Shit O'Meter, basically.

[rl64tx]

Cool. Here's another question for you -- what's a millibar?? I'm hearing about it being 904 mb but don't know what that means.

A millibar (mb) is a unit of measure for air pressure. 1 millibar us .02953 inches of mercury (Hg). Average sea level pressure is 1013.2 millibars o r29.92 inches of mercury.

[Jelly]

so...what's everybody's favorite hurricane theme music?
I'm going with CNN.

[Samr]

so...what's everybody's favorite hurricane theme music?

Katrina and the Waves- Walkin' on Sunshine

[rl64tx]

Scorpions- Rock you like a hurricane!!!

[Samr]

Bob Dylan- Hurricane

Lynyrd Skynyrd- Sweet Home Alabama

Ok, no more jokes.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

KE's got a point.

No jokes.

[Jelly]

no, I mean, haven't you noticed how CNN and other networks market Hurricanes (and wars). Hurricanes have their own theme music, with a slick dramatic intro...like NYPD Blue or The Sopranos. Hurricanes and wars and other disastrous events are sleekly packaged like an NBC drama.

[Kori Ellis]

Okay, don't turn this into a joke thread.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

no, I mean, haven't you noticed how CNN and other networks market Hurricanes (and wars). Hurricanes have their own theme music, with a slick dramatic intro...like NYPD Blue or The Sopranos. Hurricanes and wars and other disastrous events are sleekly packaged like an NBC drama.

Yeah, CNN has that graphic intro with everything that could possibly happen to you in a hurricane including "contamination of drinking water."

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

WWL-TV is going to cut out at midnight. Are there any other stations in NOLA with live feeds?

Well, it'd be nice to know, but they just said that they're cutting the NOLA operations and giving it to Baton Rouge.

[KEDA]

Google is your friend

[KEDA]

http://www.wdsu.com/video/4907831/detail.html

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Google is your friend

Too bad a 4-9 offsuit wasn't your friend last night! :lol

Seriously, thanks.

[missmyzte]

Jackie on Fox News is too cool, she just seems to be an awesome person with a great spirit.

[KEDA]

shit, my cards were sooo cold last night I needed a jacket!

[Samr]

I just went and filled up with gas.

It's really an erie feeling. Disaster is a matter of hours away, and there is absolutely nothing we can do to stop it. By the time I wake up in the morning, thousands will be dead. I will be waking in my air conditioned house, getting in my non-damaged truck, and driving to a non-flooded doctor's office. While in New Orleans, meanwhile, the residents will be experiencing a hell of which I can only imagine.

So what are we left to do?

Sit here and speculate the outcome of something we cannot stop.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I just went and filled up with gas.

It's really an erie feeling. Disaster is a matter of hours away, and there is absolutely nothing we can do to stop it. By the time I wake up in the morning, thousands will be dead. I will be waking in my air conditioned house, getting in my non-damaged truck, and driving to a non-flooded doctor's office. While in New Orleans, meanwhile, the residents will be experiencing a hell of which I can only imagine.

So what are we left to do?

Sit here and speculate the outcome of something we cannot stop.

I guess we just do what we can to help.

Donate, pray, etc.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Is it just me or is it kind of weird that we have yet to see any photos from inside the Superdome?

[Samr]

I think everyone is still reporting from outside the dome. I'm sure they'll allow cameras in there, just all the major news stations either still want their guys talking to people in line, or they are putting them up in a different shelter.

[Jelly]

I just went and filled up with gas.

It's really an erie feeling. Disaster is a matter of hours away, and there is absolutely nothing we can do to stop it. By the time I wake up in the morning, thousands will be dead. I will be waking in my air conditioned house, getting in my non-damaged truck, and driving to a non-flooded doctor's office. While in New Orleans, meanwhile, the residents will be experiencing a hell of which I can only imagine.

So what are we left to do?

Sit here and speculate the outcome of something we cannot stop.

I really don't believe thousands will be dead. This is an intense storm, but the media has a tendancy to hype things. With emergency evacuations underway, I will be surprised if more than a hundred are dead. Still a hundred too many and it must really suck to be in that area right now.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I think everyone is still reporting from outside the dome. I'm sure they'll allow cameras in there, just all the major news stations either still want their guys talking to people in line, or they are putting them up in a different shelter.

Yeah, but no photogs?

[Trainwreck2100]

America donated so much to the tsunami relief, I was wondering how much the world would share with us.

[Kori Ellis]

With emergency evacuations underway, I will be surprised if more than a hundred are dead.

Well I think only 50% of them are evacuated from the city so far. That spells for more than 100 dead. *Praying for some miracle that there will be none*

[Samr]

I really don't believe thousands will be dead. This is an intense storm, but the media has a tendancy to hype things. With emergency evacuations underway, I will be surprised if more than a hundred are dead.

But think about it this way-

New Orleans goes underwater. There are, say, 30,000 people who are too stupid to leave their homes. 1 out of every 30 people dies? I could see that.

Nevermind the fact that this storm is going to wreak havoc from NOLA to Florida. Then you have tornados, flooding, disease. There might not be 1000 INITIALLY, but the death toll from this thing is going to rise quickly.

I don't buy into the "disaster of biblical proportions" stuff the media is putting out, but this is going to be bad.

Very bad.

[missmyzte]

20,000-25,000 people are in the SuperDome right now

[Kori Ellis]

There are, say, 30,000 people who are too stupid to leave their homes.

Don't call them stupid. 100K there don't have transportation out. Most of them aren't stupid; they are unfortunate.

[SPARKY]

Every once in a while Man is reminded of how truly weak and ignorant he is.

[Jelly]

America donated so much to the tsunami relief, I was wondering how much the world would share with us.

Unfortunately, much of the rest of the world thinks we didn't give enough, believe it or not. Check out the international press and go on some foreign message boards. you will see American tsunami relief described in such terms as "disgraceful". They like to calculate everything on a per capita basis and and as a % of our GNP. By doing this, the U.S. looks stingy compared to other nations. Of course, it's much more complicated than that and I have had my fill with arguing with Europeans on how Americans are not "stingy".

Wht they forget is that the greatest aid given to Indonesia by any nation was the manpower, materials and relief provided by our military. They were able to provide assistance that is beyond monetary comparison.

[Samr]

Bleh. I forgot to preface it again.

I meant the people who were stupid in that they wanted to ride out the storm. Like I said earlier, I feel awful for those who cannot leave but want to. The ones I don't feel sorry for- the idiots- are the ones who think they will be find after boarding up the windows in their sing story house.

If you are anywhere on the gulf coast and not in Texas, now is NOT the time for morbid curiosity. Katrina doesn't care if you are there or not- she is destroying your house either way.

Those, are the idiots.

[Jelly]

Well I think only 50% of them are evacuated from the city so far. That spells for more than 100 dead. *Praying for some miracle that there will be none*

Me too.

[MannyIsGod]

Joe, they had shots from inside the dome earlier on CNN and MSNBC.

[Samr]

The levees are 15 feet.

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/strm12_surgefore_720x486.jpg

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I'm no meteorologist or city planner, but there are people obviously telling these things to the media that a few of you are saying are blowing this out of proportion. They're not just pulling this stuff out of their ass.

And you know that if they held info back and short-changed it, they'd be ripped to shreds.



URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA

DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290300-
ASSUMPTION-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-
TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005




“We are facing a storm that most of us have long feared,” Nagin said.




The storm had the potential for storm surge flooding of up to 28 feet, topped with even higher waves, as much as 15 inches of rain, and tornadoes, the National Hurricane Center said.

[Samr]

Also, it is slowing. 11 mph. More time to dump more rain.

Manny, any word on this? Is this a result of the eye wall whatever, or is it slowing because of the shallower water?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Joe, they had shots from inside the dome earlier on CNN and MSNBC.

Okay. Thanks.

I've just had the local feeds playing in the background since I got home to San Marcos.

[missmyzte]

The sister of a good friend of mine (she's also my mentor) goes to school in New Orleans, just got word that she's out of N.O. and is driving towards my friend who lives in Dallas.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Some good news...Nagin says 75-80% of people were evacuated and 30K got to the Superdome.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/28/hurricane.blog/index.html

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

A Miami reporter on WWL just said that fiberoptic communication was just lost at the Superdome.

[Samr]

Everyone's seen those videos of tornados tearing through towns, leaving little remaining. An F3 has winds 158-206 mph, and can do some serious damage.

Now imagine an F3 that is 300 miles wide. And brings in a 25 foot storm surge.

For some prospective.

[Jelly]

Everyone's seen those videos of tornados tearing through towns, leaving little remaining. An F3 has winds 158-206 mph, and can do some serious damage.

Now imagine an F3 that is 300 miles wide. And brings in a 25 foot storm surge.

For some prospective.

That's worst case scenario. I'm not a worse case scenario thinker. I just have a feeling this will weaken by tomorrow, maybe down to a Cat 4. That's based on nothing but my psychic intuition. Let's hope. It still will be a nightmare for New Orleans.

[Horry For 3!]

They're talking about the hurricane and other hurricanes that were category 5s on CNN.

[Ginofan]

That's worst case scenario. I'm not a worse case scenario thinker. I just have a feeling this will weaken by tomorrow, maybe down to a Cat 4. That's based on nothing but my psychic intuition. Let's hope.

If it weakens to a CAT 4 before it hits...I don't think it would make much of a difference. The amount of destruction NO and surrounding neighbors receive will still be huge.

[SPARKY]

If it is slowing down that is not good news. That does not mean that the hurricane is weakening. Rather, as I understand it, it means that the storm will have more time over the Gulf to strengthen.

[Jelly]

Look at that traffic. Why don't they open up the 'inbound' highway (is it 10 that they keep showing) for outbound cars?

they could keep just one inbound lane for emergency vehicles.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Look at that traffic. Why don't they open up the 'inbound' highway (is it 10 that they keep showing) for outbound cars?

they could keep just one inbound lane for emergency vehicles.

They had that all day long, apparently.

[Samr]

That's worst case scenario.

It is? The comparrison was based purely off wind speeds. The storm surge is fact (not exact numbers, but give or take a few feet).

The X-Factor is the levee system. If that holds, N.O. gets off (relatively) easy. But if they break, it is anyone's guess as to the kind of destruction thing thing will bring.

[Trainwreck2100]

If it is slowing down that is not good news. That does not mean that the hurricane is weakening. Rather, as I understand it, it means that the storm will have more time over the Gulf to strengthen.

The hope is this is an eye reformation, if it is it may slow down and hopefully not reform before landfall. The winds are slowing, not it's speed. If you can make sense of that.

[j-6]

FYI, there's 15K in the Superdome as of 8:30 with approximately another 3-4K outside still. The National Guard brought 300,000 MRE's with them.

[Kori Ellis]

The winds are slowing, not it's speed.

But isn't that cyclical? I understood that the winds were slowing and then strengthening again over the last 24 hours, then slowing again, etc.

[Trainwreck2100]

But isn't that cyclical? I understood that the winds were slowing and then strengthening again over the last 24 hours, then slowing again, etc.


Like I said hopefully it makes landfall before it can strenghthen itself. This hurricane has faked out everyone since it was a tropical depression.

[MannyIsGod]

Ok, first of all the portion of the storm with winds compareable to an F3 tornado is about 30 miles wide. Those winds are concentrated around the eye. Hurricane winds extend out about 100 miles in each direction give or a take a few miles. So it won't be a 300 mile wide tornado, but the iner portions will be much like an F3.

Secondly, the slow down is temporary and means nothing in regards to the strength at landfall. A Catagory 4 coming ashore is going to decimate the region. It is reletivly better than a cat 5, but the difference in the real world is compareable to being run over by a Tahoe instead of a semi. The point being you're still going to be pretty fucked up.

This storm will be at least a catagory four at landfall, and odds are that NO will not be what we know it as tomorrow.

[SPARKY]

Well, it's the wind speed going around the eye that matters. A slower moving eye isn't a good thing in and of itself. If that slower 'directional speed' feeds into the windspeed running around the eye then good.

[Ginofan]

Like I said hopefully it makes landfall before it can strenghthen itself. This hurricane has faked out everyone since it was a tropical depression.

I thought the eye was too large at this point to undergo another replacement cycle?

[MannyIsGod]

There is almost no hope for this storm to weaken below catagory four status. It has weakend for now, but these things are cyclical and it could regain that strength or even gain more than it had before prior to landfall. No one really knows untill it happens with these storms, but do not mistake the falling windspeeds as a sign it is weakening.

The fact is that the storm is so large and the eye is so large it simply cannot hold pressure that low, but if the eye contracts even a bit the winds will ramp right up again.

[MannyIsGod]

I thought the eye was too large at this point to undergo another replacement cycle?
Not nessecarily.

[Clandestino]

SYDNEY (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices surged to a record above $70 a barrel on Monday as one of the country's biggest storms tore through the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, forcing oil producers and refiners to shut down operations.

U.S. crude oil futures soared nearly $5 a barrel in opening trade to touch a fresh peak of $70.80 a barrel, surpassing last week's $68 high to the highest price since the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) began trading contracts in 1983.

It later traded up $3.42 a barrel, 5.2 percent, at $69.55.

Oil product and natural gas prices also shot higher to records, with gasoline soaring 10 percent to $2.13 a gallon and heating oil rocketing past $2 a gallon for the first time. Natural gas prices were up 20 percent.

Prices leapt as Hurricane Katrina, the eleventh named storm of what is expected to be an unusually severe season, threatened to do lasting damage to the vital U.S. oil and refining region, further straining an industry that has struggled to keep up with two years of strongly rising oil demand.

More than 40 percent of all U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude oil production was reported closed down as a result of the hurricane, with the total expected to rise significantly as more operators report affected production to the U.S. government on Monday.

Katrina revved up to a maximum Category 5 hurricane at the weekend, far stronger than last year's Hurricane Ivan, which tore up platforms and pipelines along a very similar path through the Gulf, disrupting oil production for months.

The U.S. Gulf of Mexico normally pumps about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, a quarter of domestic output and equivalent to nearly 2 percent of global oil production.

"This is certainly reminiscent of Ivan last year," said David Thurtell, commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"We can expect two months of lost production, and coming in the peak demand period this is the worst possible news. The only way we can avoid yet higher prices is if
President Bush releases supply from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve."

The administration has said in the past it would release oil from the 700-million-barrel SPR only during a serious supply disruption, but has never given further details.

In New Orleans, hundreds of thousands of residents were advised to leave as Katrina was expected to make landfall near the low-lying Gulf Coast city around sunrise on Monday.

Apart from the impact on crude production, dealers fear the storm will tighten supplies of consumer fuels. Gasoline stockpiles are already at the low end of their seasonal norm.

Seven southeast Louisiana refineries with a combined daily refining capacity of 1.449 million barrels of crude oil had shut down ahead of Katrina making landfall, an amount equal to 8.5 percent of total U.S. refining capacity.

Two of those refineries near New Orleans -- the 190,000 bpd Chalmette Refining LLC and Murphy Oil Corp's 120,000 bpd Meraux plant -- appeared to be directly in the path of the storm.

NO CUSHION

Dealers are particularly concerned about damage as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (
OPEC) is already pumping at near its full capacity, leaving it little room to make up for any lasting outages.

OPEC's president said at the weekend that soaring prices were of rising concern to the cartel, which controls half the world's oil exports, but that they should begin to eases as higher costs begin to curb demand.

"OPEC will be exploring various options for the September meeting which will hopefully contribute to moderate prices," said OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, also Kuwait's oil minister, in an English language statement in Kuwait City.

He did not elaborate on the nature of these options. OPEC meets on Sept. 19 to chart output policy.

Production elsewhere in the world was also under strain, with
Iran's 90,000 barrel-per-day Nowruz oilfield, being developed by Royal Dutch/Shell, shut down owing to technical problems, a senior Iranian oil official was quoted as saying on Saturday.

And in Ecuador, where output has only just returned to normal after being hobbled by a week-long protest, activists vowed on Sunday to resume protests within the next 48 hours if energy firms to not agree to increase local investment.

[spurschick]

I feel so horrible for those people. Those that are still there are at risk for their lives. Those that left will probably return to nothing. It makes you feel very helpless.

[Samr]

I'm getting ready to go to bed (so I can wake up earlier tomarrow and watch the landfall), and I cannot believe there is even a possibility of waking up and seeing what ammounts to a large lake where New Orleans used to be.

The city was so historic, so cultured, and now it is in danger of becomming a articifical reef. In addition to the massive loss of life.

It's erie to think about.

It's sad.

[Manu20]

As of 10pm hurricane Katrina still has winds of 160mph with gusts to 195mph and moving NNW at 10mph.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I'm getting ready to go to bed (so I can wake up earlier tomarrow and watch the landfall), and I cannot believe there is even a possibility of waking up and seeing what ammounts to a large lake where New Orleans used to be.

The city was so historic, so cultured, and now it is in danger of becomming a articifical reef. In addition to the massive loss of life.

It's erie to think about.

It's sad.

I'm actually going to pull an all-nighter.

[SPARKY]

http://www.nola.com/washingaway/thebigone_1.html


THE BIG ONE

A major hurricane could decimate the region, but flooding from even a moderate storm could kill thousands. It's just a matter of time.

By Mark Schleifstein and John McQuaid
Staff writers

The line of splintered planks, trash and seaweed scattered along the slope of New Orleans' lakefront levees on Hayne Boulevard in late September 1998 marked more than just the wake of Hurricane Georges. It measured the slender margin separating the city from mass destruction.

The debris, largely the remains of about 70 camps smashed by the waves of a storm surge more than 7 feet above sea level, showed that Georges, a Category 2 storm that only grazed New Orleans, had pushed waves to within a foot of the top of the levees. A stronger storm on a slightly different course -- such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall -- could have realized emergency officials' worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage.

That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross.

"A catastrophic hurricane represents 10 or 15 atomic bombs in terms of the energy it releases," said Joseph Suhayda, a Louisiana State University engineer who is studying ways to limit hurricane damage in the New Orleans area. "Think about it. New York lost two big buildings. Multiply that by 10 or 20 or 30 in the area impacted and the people lost, and we know what could happen."

Hundreds of thousands would be left homeless, and it would take months to dry out the area and begin to make it livable. But there wouldn't be much for residents to come home to. The local economy would be in ruins.

The scene has been played out for years in computer models and emergency-operations simulations. Officials at the local, state and national level are convinced the risk is genuine and are devising plans for alleviating the aftermath of a disaster that could leave the city uninhabitable for six months or more. The Army Corps of Engineers has begun a study to see whether the levees should be raised to counter the threat. But officials say that right now, nothing can stop "the big one."

Like coastal Bangladesh, where typhoons killed 100,000 and 300,000 villagers, respectively, in two horrific storms in 1970 and 1991, the New Orleans area lies in a low, flat coastal area. Unlike Bangladesh, New Orleans has hurricane levees that create a bowl with the bottom dipping lower than the bottom of Lake Pontchartrain. Though providing protection from weaker storms, the levees also would trap any water that gets inside -- by breach, overtopping or torrential downpour -- in a catastrophic storm.

"Filling the bowl" is the worst potential scenario for a natural disaster in the United States, emergency officials say. The Red Cross' projected death toll dwarfs estimates of 14,000 dead from a major earthquake along the New Madrid, Mo., fault, and 4,500 dead from a similar catastrophic earthquake hitting San Francisco, the next two deadliest disasters on the agency's list.

The projected death and destruction eclipse almost any other natural disaster that people paid to think about catastrophes can dream up. And the risks are significant, especially over the long term. In a given year, for example, the corps says the risk of the lakefront levees being topped is less than 1 in 300. But over the life of a 30-year mortgage, statistically that risk approaches 9 percent.

In the past year, Federal Emergency Management Agency officials have begun working with state and local agencies to devise plans on what to do if a Category 5 hurricane strikes New Orleans.

Shortly after he took office, FEMA Director Joe Allbaugh ordered aides to examine the nation's potential major catastrophes, including the New Orleans scenario.

"Catastrophic disasters are best defined in that they totally outstrip local and state resources, which is why the federal government needs to play a role," Allbaugh said. "There are a half-dozen or so contingencies around the nation that cause me great concern, and one of them is right there in your back yard."

In concert with state and local officials, FEMA is studying evacuation procedures, postdisaster rescue strategies, temporary housing and technical issues such as how to pump out water trapped inside the levees, said Michael Lowder, chief of policy and planning in FEMA's Readiness, Response and Recovery directorate. A preliminary report should be completed in the next few months.

Louisiana emergency management officials say they lobbied the agency for years to study how to respond to New Orleans' vulnerability, finally getting attention last year.

With computer modeling of hurricanes and storm surges, disaster experts have developed a detailed picture of how a storm could push Lake Pontchartrain over the levees and into the city.

"The worst case is a hurricane moving in from due south of the city," said Suhayda, who has developed a computer simulation of the flooding from such a storm. On that track, winds on the outer edges of a huge storm system would be pushing water in Breton Sound and west of the Chandeleur Islands into the St. Bernard marshes and then Lake Pontchartrain for two days before landfall.

"Water is literally pumped into Lake Pontchartrain," Suhayda said. "It will try to flow through any gaps, and that means the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal (which is connected to Breton Sound by the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet) and the Chef Menteur and the Rigolets passes.

"So now the lake is 5 to 8 feet higher than normal, and we're talking about a lake that's only 15 or 20 feet deep, so you're adding a third to a half as much water to the lake," Suhayda said. As the eye of the hurricane moves north, next to New Orleans but just to the east, the winds over the lake switch around to come from the north.

"As the eye impacts the Mississippi coastline, the winds are now blowing south across the lake, maybe at 50, 80, 100 mph, and all that water starts to move south," he said. "It's moving like a big army advancing toward the lake's hurricane-protection system. And then the winds themselves are generating waves, 5 to 10 feet high, on top of all that water. They'll be breaking and crashing along the sea wall."

Soon waves will start breaking over the levee.

"All of a sudden you'll start seeing flowing water. It'll look like a weir, water just pouring over the top," Suhayda said. The water will flood the lakefront, filling up low-lying areas first, and continue its march south toward the river. There would be no stopping or slowing it; pumping systems would be overwhelmed and submerged in a matter of hours.

"Another scenario is that some part of the levee would fail," Suhayda said. "It's not something that's expected. But erosion occurs, and as levees broke, the break will get wider and wider. The water will flow through the city and stop only when it reaches the next higher thing. The most continuous barrier is the south levee, along the river. That's 25 feet high, so you'll see the water pile up on the river levee."

As the floodwaters invade and submerge neighborhoods, the wind will be blowing at speeds of at least 155 mph, accompanied by shorter gusts of as much as 200 mph, meteorologists say, enough to overturn cars, uproot trees and toss people around like dollhouse toys.

The wind will blow out windows and explode many homes, even those built to the existing 110-mph building-code standards. People seeking refuge from the floodwaters in high-rise buildings won't be very safe, recent research indicates, because wind speed in a hurricane gets greater with height. If the winds are 155 mph at ground level, scientists say, they may be 50 mph stronger 100 feet above street level.

Buildings also will have to withstand pummeling by debris picked up by water surging from the lakefront toward downtown, with larger pieces acting like battering rams.

Ninety percent of the structures in the city are likely to be destroyed by the combination of water and wind accompanying a Category 5 storm, said Robert Eichorn, former director of the New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness. The LSU Hurricane Center surveyed numerous large public buildings in Jefferson Parish in hopes of identifying those that might withstand such catastrophic winds. They found none.

Amid this maelstrom, the estimated 200,000 or more people left behind in an evacuation will be struggling to survive. Some will be housed at the Superdome, the designated shelter in New Orleans for people too sick or infirm to leave the city. Others will end up in last-minute emergency refuges that will offer minimal safety. But many will simply be on their own, in homes or looking for high ground.

Thousands will drown while trapped in homes or cars by rising water. Others will be washed away or crushed by debris. Survivors will end up trapped on roofs, in buildings or on high ground surrounded by water, with no means of escape and little food or fresh water, perhaps for several days.

"If you look at the World Trade Center collapsing, it'll be like that, but add water," Eichorn said. "There will be debris flying around, and you're going to be in the water with snakes, rodents, nutria and fish from the lake. It's not going to be nice."

Mobilized by FEMA, search and rescue teams from across the nation will converge on the city. Volunteer teams of doctors, nurses and emergency medical technicians that were pre-positioned in Monroe or Shreveport before the storm will move to the area, said Henry Delgado, regional emergency coordinator for the U.S. Public Health Service.

But just getting into the city will be a problem for rescuers. Approaches by road may be washed out.

"Whether or not the Airline Highway bridge across the Bonnet Carre Spillway survives, we don't know," said Jay Combe, a coastal hydraulic engineer with the corps. "The I-10 bridge (west of Kenner) is designed to withstand a surge from a Category 3 storm, but it may be that water gets under the spans, and we don't know if it will survive." Other bridges over waterways and canals throughout the city may also be washed away or made unsafe, he said. In a place where cars may be useless, small boats and helicopters will be used to move survivors to central pickup areas, where they can be moved out of the city. Teams of disaster mortuary volunteers, meanwhile, will start collecting bodies. Other teams will bring in temporary equipment and goods, including sanitation facilities, water, ice and generators. Food, water and medical supplies will be airdropped to some areas and delivered to others.

Stranded survivors will have a dangerous wait even after the storm passes. Emergency officials worry that energized electrical wires could pose a threat of electrocution and that the floodwater could become contaminated with sewage and with toxic chemicals from industrial plants and backyard sheds. Gasoline, diesel fuel and oil leaking from underground storage tanks at service stations may also become a problem, corps officials say.

A variety of creatures -- rats, mice and nutria, poisonous snakes and alligators, fire ants, mosquitoes and abandoned cats and dogs -- will be searching for the same dry accommodations that people are using.

Contaminated food or water used for bathing, drinking and cooking could cause illnesses including salmonella, botulism, typhoid and hepatitis. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne dengue fever and encephalitis are likely, said Dr. James Diaz, director of the department of public health and preventive medicine at LSU School of Medicine in New Orleans.

"History will repeat itself," Diaz said. "My office overlooks one of the St. Louis cemeteries, where there are many graves of victims of yellow fever. Standing water in the subtropics is the breeding ground for mosquitoes."

[Ginofan]

Wtnt42 Knhc 290249
Tcdat2
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 25
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Pm Edt Sun Aug 28 2005

There Are Conflicting Signals Regarding The Intensity Of Katrina.
The Noaa Aircraft Near 00z Reported A Peak Flight Level Wind Of 155
Kt...which Would Normally Correspond To 140 Kt At The Surface. The
Pressure Remains Extremely Low...904 Mb At Last Report. On The
Other Hand...the Stepped-frequency Microwave Radiometer...or
Sfmr...suggested Winds Were In The 120-130 Kt Range...and Limited
Dropsonde Data Also Suggested Something A Little Below 140 Kt.
There Are Enough Questions About The Performance Of The Sfmr At
These Speeds For Me To Stick With The Standard 90 Percent
Adjustment For Now.

There Have Been Some Modest Changes In The Structure Of Katrina Over
The Last Several Hours. Recent Microwave Passes Show That An Outer
Eyewall Is In The Formative Stages...and The Latest Ir Images Show
A Less Well-defined Eyewall With More Evidence Of Outer Banding.
The Noaa Hurricane Hunters Also Reported An Erosion Of The Eyewall
In The Southwest Quadrant. These Observations Suggest That There
Could Be Some Weakening Of Katrina Prior To Landfall. All This Is
Relative...however...and Katrina Is Still Expected To Be Of At
Least Category Four Intensity When It Reaches The Coast. An Eyewall
Replacement At This Point Is Not All Good News...as They Are
Generally Accompanied By A Broadening Of The Wind Field...so That
Even As Katrina Weakens There Could Be An Increase In The Area That
Experiences Major Hurricane Force Winds.

There Has Been No Significant Change To The Track Forecast. The
Initial Motion Is 335/9. Katrina Is Expected To Gradually Turn
Northward Into A Break In The Subtropical Ridge Associated With A
Large Mid-latitude Cyclone Near The Great Lakes. Model Guidance
Remains Tightly Clustered...with The Nogaps Shifting Just A Bit
East Of Its Previous Track. While There Is Great Significance For
The City Of New Orleans In The Details Of The Track...track
Anomolies Of 30-50 Miles Are Still Possible Even 12-18 Hours Out.

Forecaster Franklin


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 29/0300z 27.6n 89.4w 140 Kt
12hr Vt 29/1200z 29.2n 89.7w 135 Kt
24hr Vt 30/0000z 31.8n 89.5w 85 Kt...inland
36hr Vt 30/1200z 34.8n 88.1w 45 Kt...inland
48hr Vt 31/0000z 37.7n 85.9w 30 Kt...inland
72hr Vt 01/0000z 43.5n 78.5w 25 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 02/0000z 50.0n 70.0w 25 Kt...extratropical
120hr Vt 03/0000z...absorbed

[The sone]

this will not end well... :(

[hussker]

Hey THE SONE...Did you get your ENIGMA CD YET?

[hussker]

Sorry, I digress...Katrina and the Waves will be Walkin on Bourbon Street...no Sunshine there... :(

[hussker]

Cat's Is the best Karaoke place in the French Qtr. I will miss it! R.I.P. Cat's

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

http://img388.imageshack.us/img388/7536/usnewsweakatrina12da8mj.th.jpg (http://img388.imageshack.us/my.php?image=usnewsweakatrina12da8mj.jpg)

PHOTOGRAPH BY MICHAEL AINSWORTH/DALLAS MORNING NEWS (August 28) NEW ORLEANS, LA -- Jackie Esquirol from New Jersey enjoys the rain and a Daiquiri on Bourbon Street in New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina approached on Sunday, August, 28, 2005. There was a 7 p.m. curfew, but some restaurant and bars remained open.

-----

I might as well just get it out of the way.

I'd hit it like hurricane-force winds.

[Trainwreck2100]

Why is that moron photographer still on buorbon street

[Ginofan]

http://img388.imageshack.us/img388/7536/usnewsweakatrina12da8mj.th.jpg (http://img388.imageshack.us/my.php?image=usnewsweakatrina12da8mj.jpg)

PHOTOGRAPH BY MICHAEL AINSWORTH/DALLAS MORNING NEWS (August 28) NEW ORLEANS, LA -- Jackie Esquirol from New Jersey enjoys the rain and a Daiquiri on Bourbon Street in New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina approached on Sunday, August, 28, 2005. There was a 7 p.m. curfew, but some restaurant and bars remained open.

-----

I might as well just get it out of the way.

I'd hit it like hurricane-force winds.

Stupid is the only word that comes to mind when I look at that picture.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Why is that moron photographer still on buorbon street

Why are photogs in Iraq?

[Jelly]

look at that bimbo ignoring the curfew. I hope the hurricane flattens her ass.

[Trainwreck2100]

Why are photogs in Iraq?

There's a difference between a warzone and a bigass wrecking ball from God

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

There's a difference between a warzone and a bigass wrecking ball from God

If you can't figure out why journalists do what they do and why they do it, I'm not going to tell you.

[spurschick]

Local news is saying that Houston hotels are completely booked and a lot of people from NO have come here or are on their way. They said that hotels are receiving tons of calls from people checking on vacancies. I sure hope the hotels are offering decent, if not low, rates for these folks. I'm sure the gas alone has cost them more than enough.

[Trainwreck2100]

look at that bimbo ignoring the curfew. I hope the hurricane flattens her ass.


Let's hope it don't flatten her chest, cause she's got a nice pair. Speaking of that, how does a bourbon St. picture not have the girls aflappin.

[samikeyp]

This may have already been covered but I was watching CNN and they were saying that the city could be potentially flooded for weeks....if that is the case, all those people in the Superdome...wouldn't they be trapped?

[ChumpDumper]

http://img388.imageshack.us/img388/7536/usnewsweakatrina12da8mj.th.jpg

White folk....

[Trainwreck2100]

If you can't figure out why journalists do what they do and why they do it, I'm not going to tell you.


Obviously that girl is stupid for being there, but why would he risk his life to show her stupidity.

[spurschick]

This may have already been covered but I was watching CNN and they were saying that the city could be potentially flooded for weeks....if that is the case, all those people in the Superdome...wouldn't they be trapped?

Most of these people didn't have the means to leave. I would imagine they would be trapped, but I guess it's better than being dead.

[Trainwreck2100]

Local news is saying that Houston hotels are completely booked and a lot of people from NO have come here or are on their way. They said that hotels are receiving tons of calls from people checking on vacancies. I sure hope the hotels are offering decent, if not low, rates for these folks. I'm sure the gas alone has cost them more than enough.

Send them to Dallas

[ChumpDumper]

wouldn't they be trapped?I'm sure they can get in boats and choppers after it clears up.

[MannyIsGod]

the pressure is down to 908. It looks more and more like an eye wall replacement. If that is the case, we just have to sit back and see how long it takes.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Obviously that girl is stupid for being there, but why would he risk his life to show her stupidity.

Journalists help document the world's events for the reader/viewer/etc. It's a want to document those events that drive people to cover them.

Why am I always on-call here in San Marcos? If something happens that our readers would want to know, we cover it the best we can.

[Trainwreck2100]

I understand that, but you have to draw the line somewhere I hope he at least mapped out where he was going to go for shelter.

[Manu20]

the pressure is down to 908. It looks more and more like an eye wall replacement. If that is the case, we just have to sit back and see how long it takes.
Is still says 904
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html

P.S.You should write the pressure is up to 908 :)

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I understand that, but you have to draw the line somewhere I hope he at least mapped out where he was going to go for shelter.

He drew his line. His line included filing photos from the French Quarter to give us a deeper understanding of the situation on the ground there.

It probably also (hopefully) included extra pay.

[Jelly]

I understand that, but you have to draw the line somewhere I hope he at least mapped out where he was going to go for shelter.

he will probably seek shelter under her breasts.

[MannyIsGod]

Well the photog is allowed to do whatever he wants with his life, but most people are leaving and that includes journalists. You can't document shit when you're dead.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Well the photog is allowed to do whatever he wants with his life, but most people are leaving and that includes journalists. You can't document shit when you're dead.

I'm not saying it's not risky.

Hell, I've had the talk with my family about what lengths I would go to for stories.

This is scary all-around.

[Jelly]

I'm not saying it's not risky.

Hell, I've had the talk with my family about what lengths I would go to for stories.

This is scary all-around.

that's interesting Johnny. Where is the craziest place you've been for a story?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

that's interesting Johnny. Where is the craziest place you've been for a story?

I haven't had any experiences of that sort (or anything near it) to where my own life was possibly in danger.

The last big story I covered where I was on-call of sorts was the death of a student last April. The student jumped into the SM River from a balcony at Joe's Crab Shack and drowned.

It was more of a breaking news story which required coordination from our staff very late at night.

I think about what lengths I would go to for my job. Would I go into a war zone, would I have hung around the WTC on 9/11? I'd like to think I would cover those events as best I could, but when it comes down to it, I don't know how I would react.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I just had the most depressing talk with my sister...

FEMA is expecting:
1 million (yes, million) homeless for the next year as a result of this storm
50,000 dead
NO underwater for 8 months

Engineers have put it at 60/40 that the Superdome even survives this storm (yes, do the math on those inside if the 40% turns out to be right)

Army Corps of Engineers says subtract 3 ft. from all the levee heights you've heard on the news - the levees were built in the 60s, and avg. subsistation in La. since then adds up to the levees "settling" approximately 3.5 ft. lower than their stated heights

FEMA has put half its man power available nationwide on standby for the aftermath

Not looking good at all.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

These next 18 hours are going to make a huge impact on the lives of many people, not just those directly in the path of Katrina.

It's going to be an interesting ride.

[Ginofan]

It's kinda amazing that we are seeing history right before our eyes. People are going to study this event for many years.

[MannyIsGod]

Personally, I'd love to go through a storm. But this is too damn much. I envy the journalists that get to stay there in the cat 1s and 2s, but anything above that is pushing it.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

It's kinda amazing that we are seeing history right before our eyes. People are going to study this event for many years.

My thoughts exactly.

I went out about an hour ago and it just struck me as weird that with all the coverage I've seen today and read, how nice and calm it was outside.

Side note: WWL just shut down their local studios (they're in the French Quarter) and switched to Baton Rouge. They're using the Mass Comm studios at LSU. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, any weakening of the storm at this point doesn't mean much. NO is going to drastically change.

I usually hate to hear things like that because it sounds like over dramitization, but people just don't realize what this storm is going to do.

[Trainwreck2100]

Yeah, any weakening of the storm at this point doesn't mean much. NO is going to drastically change.

I usually hate to hear things like that because it sounds like over dramitization, but people just don't realize what this storm is going to do.


This is like 9/11 for me, I can see it, but it's just so weird to accept, it's just like a slap in the face.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Talk about your trial by fire for students.

WWL just said that a lot of the work in the studio is being done by the students.

[Ginofan]

Is anyone pulling an all nighter to keep up with it?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Is anyone pulling an all nighter to keep up with it?

Right here. Just broke out the 50 oz Dr. Pepper and might play some Madden later (leaving the stream open on my computer and turned up).

[Ginofan]

Right here. Just broke out the 50 oz Dr. Pepper and might play some Madden later (leaving the stream open on my computer and turned up).

Are you still getting audio? The video is still running on mine but I can't hear anything.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I've got it the other way around. My video is frozen but I have audio (intermitten now).

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

BTW, if you want to follow the local NO news feed....

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

FEMA has designated this channel as priority 1 for information for La. residents (they are even going to remote broadcast from Baton Route when NO can no longer broadcast).

[Jelly]

anyone care to speculate on how many tornadoes this might spawn?

[Trainwreck2100]

I've been using WDSU's feed.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Well, nevermind, looks like someone posted already on the newsfeed (guess I missed this on one of the previous pages).

BTW, flew into Houston tonight for work, I-10 coming into town from the west was bumper to bumper.

Pilot pointed out the storm tops of the outer bands out to the east, it was just one gigantic cluster of clouds on the horizon. Crazy.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

BTW, if you want to follow the local NO news feed....

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

FEMA has designated this channel as priority 1 for information for La. residents (they are even going to remote broadcast from Baton Route when NO can no longer broadcast).

Already happened. WWL has a skeleton crew broadcasting out of the Mass Comm dept. at LSU.

Still intermitten for me, I've switched to Billy's link from earlier in this thread.

http://www.wdsu.com/index.html

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn, bummer of a read...

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl092304thanh.1295648.html

(on the Superdome as a shelter)

[MannyIsGod]

I'm not going to pull an allnighter, but I will probably only sleep a small amount at some point tonight.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I would take a nap, but I don't think I'd wake up until mid-morning. I'm going to try my best since I expect to be up until at least 1 a.m. on Tuesday morning putting out Tuesday's paper.

[Ginofan]

I'll be up for work early anyway so should be pretty interesting.

[missmyzte]

I don't know if I'll pull an all-nighter, but I'll be up for a few more hours (still have a ton of work to do before tomorrow) and will be up at 5am to get ready for work.

[Trainwreck2100]

I don't want to pull an all nighter, but i don't know if I could get sleep.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Is it just me or does it look like the heaviest stuff is going to happen in the next few hours instead of early after sunrise?

[MannyIsGod]

Just you. The heaviest stuff is near that eye, regardless of what the radar tells you. The beam has to travel through all of that rain to even get to the eye, which is a reason you think the worst is happening right now.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Just you. The heaviest stuff is near that eye, regardless of what the radar tells you. The beam has to travel through all of that rain to even get to the eye, which is a reason you think the worst is happening right now.

Gotcha. Thanks.

[Manu20]

Is it just me or does it look like the heaviest stuff is going to happen in the next few hours instead of early after sunrise?
The radars get messed up when the rain is really heavy.

[Sonia_TX]

I've never been to NO. I guess I'll never get to see what it was all about. :( I just pray that everybody is safe.

[SPARKY]

Shit, the eye is hitting NO and yet Mobile is going to see a 20+ foot storm surge plus hurricane winds.

This is downright Biblical.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Some webcams @ the Port of New Orleans.

Slow loading, give it a minute.


http://63.243.21.108/view/view.shtml
http://63.243.21.109/view/view.shtml
http://63.243.21.114/view/view.shtml

[Trainwreck2100]

WDSU reports three nursing home evacuees died, because of too much time spent on a sbhool bus.

[MannyIsGod]

I went to Mardi Gras back in 99 when I was 19. Awesome time. Jess and I were considering a trip out there this December, but I don't know if that will be in the cards anymore. Who knows if there will be a French Quater to ever visit again?

[GINNNNNNNNNNNNOBILI]

I went to Mardi Gras back in 99 when I was 19. Awesome time. Jess and I were considering a trip out there this December, but I don't know if that will be in the cards anymore. Who knows if there will be a French Quater to ever visit again?

I went 2 years ago, it was a blast. Its amazing to fathom that NO could be a destruction zone by tomorrow night.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Louis Armstrong NO Intl. Airport

http://www.flymsy.com/images/Katrina/DSC00446.JPG

http://www.flymsy.com/images/Katrina/DSC00444.JPG

http://www.flymsy.com/images/Katrina/DSC02321.JPG

[Das Texan]

I just had the most depressing talk with my sister...

FEMA is expecting:
1 million (yes, million) homeless for the next year as a result of this storm
50,000 dead
NO underwater for 8 months

Engineers have put it at 60/40 that the Superdome even survives this storm (yes, do the math on those inside if the 40% turns out to be right)

Army Corps of Engineers says subtract 3 ft. from all the levee heights you've heard on the news - the levees were built in the 60s, and avg. subsistation in La. since then adds up to the levees "settling" approximately 3.5 ft. lower than their stated heights

FEMA has put half its man power available nationwide on standby for the aftermath

Not looking good at all.



good fucking lord.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

US Army Corps of Engineers Data
Expected Flooding from Fast Moving Hurricanes in Southeast Louisiana

http://www.dotd.louisiana.gov/press/SLOSHFastMovingSg.pdf

[Old School Chic]

I'm supposed to be asleep by now, but I just can't sleep knowing that so many people are frightened on what Is going to happen with this Hurricane. :depressed

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

The fucked up thing is a bunch of people went to Baton Rouge, and they're forecasting that this thing will still be a cat 4 after it leaves La.

A lot of people are going to die well north of NO.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Turn on MSNBC. They've got a storm chaser heading into NO on right now.

[MannyIsGod]

damn, I hope that airport doesn't have much glass in it.

[Trainwreck2100]

The fucked up thing is a bunch of people went to Baton Rouge, and they're forecasting that this thing will still be a cat 4 after it leaves La.

A lot of people are going to die well north of NO.

The WC was reporting to go west and east but not north, but they prob. couldn't handle the traffic.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

http://www.flymsy.com/images/Katrina/DSC00452.JPG

http://www.flymsy.com/images/Katrina/DSC00459.JPG

[MannyIsGod]

I keep waiting for the next vortex signal from the recon flight. I hope we get that soon.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Johnny Blaze, the SLOSH study was based on a cat 3 hurricane. this will be worse.

Driving from houston out to College Station I was listening to the AM radio, one of the stations in La. was broadcasting loud in clear out of Baton Rouge - people were calling in with info. as to what roads were the clearest so they could help those stuck in traffic jams.

Pretty wild.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Johnny Blaze, the SLOSH study was based on a cat 3 hurricane. this will be worse.

Driving from houston out to College Station I was listening to the AM radio, one of the stations in La. was broadcasting loud in clear out of Baton Rouge - people were calling in with info. as to what roads were the clearest so they could help those stuck in traffic jams.

Pretty wild.

Was it something near 850AM? A few nights ago, I picked up the Saints-Ravens game out of Shreveport?

[boutons]

fun stuff from cnn.com

Floodwaters from the east will carry toxic waste from the "Industrial Canal" area, nicknamed after the chemical plants there. From the west, floodwaters would flow through the Norco Destrehan Industrial Complex, which includes refineries and chemical plants, said van Heerden, who has studied computer models about the impact of a strong hurricane for four years.

"These chemical plants are going to start flying apart, just as the other buildings do," he predicted. "So, we have the potential for release of benzene, hydrochloric acid, chlorine and so on."

That could result in severe air and water pollution, he said.

In New Orleans, which lies below sea level, gas and diesel tanks are all located above ground for the same reason that bodies are buried above ground. In the event of a flood, "those tanks will start to float, shear their couplings, and we'll have the release of these rather volatile compounds," van Heerden added.

Because gasoline floats on water, "we could end up with some pretty severe and large -- area-wise -- fires."

"So, we're looking at a bowl full of highly contaminated water with contaminated air flowing around and, literally, very few places for anybody to go where they'll be safe."

He went further.

"So, imagine you're the poor person who decides not to evacuate: Your house will disintegrate around you. The best you'll be able to do is hang on to a light pole, and while you're hanging on, the fire ants from all the mounds -- of which there is two per yard on average -- will clamber up that same pole. And, eventually, the fire ants will win."

[Das Texan]

fun stuff from cnn.com

Floodwaters from the east will carry toxic waste from the "Industrial Canal" area, nicknamed after the chemical plants there. From the west, floodwaters would flow through the Norco Destrehan Industrial Complex, which includes refineries and chemical plants, said van Heerden, who has studied computer models about the impact of a strong hurricane for four years.

"These chemical plants are going to start flying apart, just as the other buildings do," he predicted. "So, we have the potential for release of benzene, hydrochloric acid, chlorine and so on."

That could result in severe air and water pollution, he said.

In New Orleans, which lies below sea level, gas and diesel tanks are all located above ground for the same reason that bodies are buried above ground. In the event of a flood, "those tanks will start to float, shear their couplings, and we'll have the release of these rather volatile compounds," van Heerden added.

Because gasoline floats on water, "we could end up with some pretty severe and large -- area-wise -- fires."

"So, we're looking at a bowl full of highly contaminated water with contaminated air flowing around and, literally, very few places for anybody to go where they'll be safe."

He went further.

"So, imagine you're the poor person who decides not to evacuate: Your house will disintegrate around you. The best you'll be able to do is hang on to a light pole, and while you're hanging on, the fire ants from all the mounds -- of which there is two per yard on average -- will clamber up that same pole. And, eventually, the fire ants will win."


that place is also known as cancer alley btw

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

http://www.khou.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_khou&props=livenoad

Looks like the downtime thinned out the WWL feed.

[MannyIsGod]

Speaking of traffic:


I just received this email from user Adam Henderson: "My friend is stuck on I-10 and has just called me saying there is a 12 car pile up. His CB is buzzing with news that a 18 wheeler is involved." At this stage, it might be best not to try to evacuate. Being stuck in a traffic jam on I-10 when the winds start blowing 130 mph is probably more dangerous than riding out the storm in the Superdome.


I'd hate to be on a LA highway when that thing comes in. That has to be insanity.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, and I wonder what the longterm impact of those pollutants being carried into the Gulf by the Mississippi will be? Can't be good.

[boutons]

"that place is also known as cancer alley btw"

Years ago I saw map of lower Mississippi R. from Baton Rouge south, showing the concentration of liver, brain, blood, kidney, etc, cancers. A horror show. Part of it from the chemical industry, part of it is from all the crap coming down the Missississippi from way up north, agricultural/animal-raising runoff (fertlizer, insecticides, animal shit, etc.)

Then the Mississippi runs into the Gulf to create a huge dead zone where nothing lives. The Mississippi is America's septic/sewer system.

[thispego]

yeah, we here in texas may think that we out of harms way but i dont know, we're fucked if the gulf gets contaminated

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Over at FARK.com, there is a Farker who is in NO and didn't leave.

He's posting as long as his power stays on.

Search the thread for djrezin8.

http://forums.fark.com/cgi/fark/comments.pl?IDLink=1641841

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Was it something near 850AM? A few nights ago, I picked up the Saints-Ravens game out of Shreveport?


Yeah, I believe it was 870 AM. Shreveport? I thought they said BR, but it's entirely possible it was Shreveport. I couldn't believe how clear their signal was coming in, must have one hell of an antenna.

I don't get how you can have a pileup with traffic moving so slow. Sheesh.

[TheWriter]

we're fucked if the gulf gets contaminated

I'm thinking the gulf is too damn big to get contaminated.


Like spilling a cap of bleach in a floor tub.

[thispego]

I'm thinking the gulf is too damn big to get contaminated.


Like spilling a cap of bleach in a floor tub.
no way, the whole thing wouldnt have to get contaminated for the the results to be devestating

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

All I know is the French, Germans, Brits, Russkies, etc. better be stepping up to help with disaster relief.

We've been picking countries up and dusting them off from natural disasters for decades now, let's see some love in return.

[Trainwreck2100]

I'm thinking the gulf is too damn big to get contaminated.


Like spilling a cap of bleach in a floor tub.

We are talking a whole ecosystem, it would be like pouring a cap of bleach on a bacteria culture.