Official San Antonio Spurs 2021 NBA Draft Discussion Thread

[The Truth #6]

Rockets have maybe the worst owner in sports. Their fan base is so screwed and I wouldn't be surprised if he's tipping the scales for 'marketability' or some crap.

Fertita is awful. He has his hand in a few SA tourist places, or at least did ten years ago. Awful, also. Goofy tourist traps.

[Mr. Body]

How do people feel about Isaiah Todd? Pretty interesting prospect, would be awesome to grab him in the 2nd round

I think he has a first round promise for some reason. I don't believe in the G-League Ignite guys at all. A glorified hype team that wasn't taught shit about basketball and faced no competition of consequence. Basically a lost year for each of them.

[PhantomDashCam]

https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/2030/1917/products/60143739_60143663_9FIFTY_NBA21DRAFT_SAASPU_OTC_3QR _200x.jpg?v=1626406077
2021 SA Draft Edition Cap

Solid if unspectacular.

[pad300]

How do people feel about Isaiah Todd? Pretty interesting prospect, would be awesome to grab him in the 2nd round

In the second, he'd be a fine pickup. At that stage, the objective is to get a guy who has a chance to make the team, no matter what position. Isiah is young enough and good enough, that he could realistically turn into one of the top 20 guys in this draft; it'll just be 7 years from now...

[Degoat]

In the second, he'd be a fine pickup. At that stage, the objective is to get a guy who has a chance to make the team, no matter what position. Isiah is young enough and good enough, that he could realistically turn into one of the top 20 guys in this draft; it'll just be 7 years from now...

What I was curious about with him is, I wonder if him being the 3rd banana hurt his stock some with Jalen green and Kuminga getting most of the attention. Like if he would have gone to a college and been the number 1 guy on the team would things be different.

[Mr. Body]

What I was curious about with him is, I wonder if him being the 3rd banana hurt his stock some with Jalen green and Kuminga getting most of the attention. Like if he would have gone to a college and been the number 1 guy on the team would things be different.

He probably would have had to actually play basketball.

[offset formation]

I think sengun is about the closest we get to having another Tim Duncanl, and that would be a miracle at 12. I am really hoping he slides to us but I'm 100% sure at least 1 other GM has taken the same Sengun drug I have.

Kid is gonna be special imo. best post fluidity since embiidl, with the potential to be really efficient from 3. incredible passer and potential to be a good rebounder.

and he's only 18. I'm calling it now, if sengun is there at 12, spurs win multiple title with him..
like I said, closest to Duncan we'll be fortunate enough to sniff for many more years.

here's to hoping his name is still off the board at 12. I fear okc, charlotte and gsw in that regard.

[Mr. Body]

I think sengun is about the closest we get to having another Tim Duncanl, and that would be a miracle at 12. I am really hoping he slides to us but I'm 100% sure at least 1 other GM has taken the same Sengun drug I have.

Kid is gonna be special imo. best post fluidity since embiidl, with the potential to be really efficient from 3. incredible passer and potential to be a good rebounder.

and he's only 18. I'm calling it now, if sengun is there at 12, spurs win multiple title with him..
like I said, closest to Duncan we'll be fortunate enough to sniff for many more years.

here's to hoping his name is still off the board at 12. I fear okc, charlotte and gsw in that regard.

While I stop well short of thinking Sengun makes a contender -- wouldn't that be nice -- I am cemented in the belief that if he's there at #12 the Spurs need to grab and run. A lot of posters (elsewhere) are discounting him in the belief he cannot play defense in the modner NBA, and I think that's false. The question is whether GMs think he's one of the top talents in the draft and whether those GMs belong to OKC or Charlotte, or possibly Orlando or Golden State.

Ultimately I think Charlotte taps Kai Jones, the allure of transition basketball run by Ball. I'm pretty sure Presti would take Sengun, though. He's smart enough to see what is there.

[bluebellmaniac]

11 Days until the Draft!!!

[PhantomDashCam]

Going to take a stab at what I think is going to happen in the first round.

Purely subjective (with some basis of league rumblings and team fit/need).

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Evan Mobley
3. Jalen Green
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Scottie Barnes
6. Jonathon Kuminga
7. James Bouknight
8. Franz Wagner
9. Moses Moody
10. Corey Kispert
11. Kai Jones
12. Jaden Springer
13. Josh Giddey
14. Jalen Johnson
15. Alperen Sengun
16. Keon Johnson
17. Cameron Thomas
18. Usman Garuba
19. Sharife Cooper
20. Chris Duarte
21. Ziaire Williams
22. Tre Mann
23. Nah’shon Hyland
24. JT Thor
25. Isaiah Jackson
26. Josh Christopher
27. Jared Butler
28. Roko Prkacin
29. Ato Dosunmu
30. Trey Murphy

Hope I didn’t forget anyone. All in good fun :lol

[John B]

Wow, Springer where Sengun, Giddey, Jalen and Keon Johnson are available? Personally I’d pick Jalen, but I’m sure PATFO picks Sengun. If I have to choose between Springer and Keon, I’d pick Keon. He’s like Ja Morant where he seems to be able to pick his spots. Springer seems to be a hard working kid, but too high at 12 and I’d pick Duarte before him.

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/coachtoddz/status/1416557005083394055?s=21

Great interview to get to know Duarte (the person) better

The podcast link, not the video by Anthony Slater

[Degoat]

My “expectation” for the draft is the spurs will draft one of Giddey, Sengun, or Garuba at 12

My “wish” is that they would draft one of James Bouknight, Jalen Johnson, or Keon Johnson at 12

My “Spidey-senses” think they could draft one of Josh Primo, Trey Murphy, or Chris Duarte at 12

[alfahdlan]

Going to take a stab at what I think is going to happen in the first round.

Purely subjective (with some basis of league rumblings and team fit/need)

Hope I didn’t forget anyone. All in good fun :lol


Naismith DPY’2021 and Jared team mate

[Dejounte]

Kai Jones just worked out for the Hornets per IG

[Mr. Body]

Kai Jones just worked out for the Hornets per IG

I like that pick for them and hope they do take him.

[PhantomDashCam]

Naismith DPY’2021 and Jared team mate

Davion…Damn it. Good call. That’s embarrassing. Guess I’m the one having an off-night. :lol


Wow, Springer where Sengun, Giddey, Jalen and Keon Johnson are available? Personally I’d pick Jalen, but I’m sure PATFO picks Sengun. If I have to choose between Springer and Keon, I’d pick Keon. He’s like Ja Morant where he seems to be able to pick his spots. Springer seems to be a hard working kid, but too high at 12 and I’d pick Duarte before him.


https://youtu.be/JXo82o8yllU

Jaden interview starts at 8:38. It’s like he’s got the ‘Spurs Draft playbook’.

I’d be fine with Sengun and Giddey but the Spurs seem invested in this current core.
Both of those players would be asked to play outside of themselves to fit within this team which I feel takes away from their greatest strengths respectively.
Maybe unfair but feel like there are too many character red flags with Jalen.
Keon seems like a good guy but his base skill set is further away from NBA contribution than Jadens.

[ace3g]

11 Days until the Draft!!!

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5afd7e722487fda41935ce1a/1529330506954-N1VXA9CWAAP6DMRJL037/1+2643805+Heal+Popp.jpg

[duncan2150]

"Johnson said he had already worked out with the Kings, Warriors, Charlotte Hornets and Oklahoma City Thunder. (https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nba/sacramento-kings/article252867873.html) He said he had additional workouts scheduled with the Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs." Sacramento Bee

Keon Johnson will work out for the Spurs.

[bluebellmaniac]

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5afd7e722487fda41935ce1a/1529330506954-N1VXA9CWAAP6DMRJL037/1+2643805+Heal+Popp.jpg

What?!?

Who is that?

[PhantomDashCam]

What?!?

Who is that?

Shane “The Hammer” Heal.

[PhantomDashCam]

Along with Keon Johnson working out, Sac towns been busy…

https://twitter.com/James_HamNBCS/status/1416595030353977348?s=20

https://twitter.com/James_HamNBCS/status/1416836896446054400?s=20

[Dejounte]

"Johnson said he had already worked out with the Kings, Warriors, Charlotte Hornets and Oklahoma City Thunder. (https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nba/sacramento-kings/article252867873.html) He said he had additional workouts scheduled with the Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs." Sacramento Bee

Keon Johnson will work out for the Spurs.


Along with Keon Johnson working out, Sac towns been busy…

https://twitter.com/James_HamNBCS/status/1416595030353977348?s=20

https://twitter.com/James_HamNBCS/status/1416836896446054400?s=20

spicy

please go to the Kings, Sengun

make Franz drop

[The Truth #6]

Do other teams not try to hide their intentions, or is that only the Spurs? Or if we see a player heavily linked to a team can we assume it's not going to happen? From getting trained in how the Spurs operate, it's funny to try and figure out other teams way of doing things. I mean, I sort of assume other teams are doing their own gamesmanship. So it's more like, ok, who hasn't interviewed or worked out for the Spurs, and can we form a list from that? Sort of joking.

[duncan2150]

spicy

please go to the Kings, Sengun

make Franz drop

No Dejounte NO ! LOL

i will be fine with Wagner but if we can't take segun or giddey, i wish we could have moody.

[Dejounte]

Do other teams not try to hide their intentions, or is that only the Spurs? Or if we see a player heavily linked to a team can we assume it's not going to happen? From getting trained in how the Spurs operate, it's funny to try and figure out other teams way of doing things. I mean, I sort of assume other teams are doing their own gamesmanship. So it's more like, ok, who hasn't interviewed or worked out for the Spurs, and can we form a list from that? Sort of joking.

No one really knows except that it is fun to speculate on a message board. However, if we do end up narrowing it to a select few for another team (or even the Spurs) and they end up selecting one of those few, then we can use that as something to keep an eye on for later years.

[PhantomDashCam]

Do other teams not try to hide their intentions, or is that only the Spurs? Or if we see a player heavily linked to a team can we assume it's not going to happen? From getting trained in how the Spurs operate, it's funny to try and figure out other teams way of doing things. I mean, I sort of assume other teams are doing their own gamesmanship. So it's more like, ok, who hasn't interviewed or worked out for the Spurs, and can we form a list from that? Sort of joking.

I strongly believe it’s in a team’s best interest to hide who they’re targeting and believe most of them do.

I don’t believe the Rockets are into Jalen Green is as much as they’re trying to entice others who are.
Evan Mobley seems like the clear #2.

The Warriors are fantastic at this. They even do it with established players ala D’Lo.
They bring in seemingly every prospect under the sun, leak reports about said players great fit, hope they fall to them etc. all in the hopes of a team paying overs for their rights.

Lots of different reports about Spurs workouts, yet Jaden Springer’s seemingly flew under the radar for a couple of weeks…

Grain of salt but was watching the ‘Floor and Ceiling’ mock this morning.
He has Kai going to the Spurs at #12 saying ‘they worked him out…’

Info. is likely wrong but interesting none the less as reports suggest they had only interviewed him…

Again, Franz’s situation puzzles me. He either has the best agent/camp in the business or the worst (if he slides out of the lottery, which seems unlikely now if that ever was a possibility…)

[mo7888]

I strongly believe it’s in a team’s best interest to hide who they’re targeting and believe most of them do.

I don’t believe the Rockets are into Jalen Green is as much as they’re trying to entice others who are.
Evan Mobley seems like the clear #2.

The Warriors are fantastic at this. They even do it with established players ala D’Lo.
They bring in seemingly every prospect under the sun, leak reports about said players great fit, hope they fall to them etc. all in the hopes of a team paying overs for their rights.

Lots of different reports about Spurs workouts, yet Jaden Springer’s seemingly flew under the radar for a couple of weeks…

Grain of salt but was watching the ‘Floor and Ceiling’ mock this morning.
He has Kai going to the Spurs at #12 saying ‘they worked him out…’

Info. is likely wrong but interesting none the less as reports suggest they had only interviewed him…

Again, Franz’s situation puzzles me. He either has the best agent/camp in the business or the worst (if he slides out of the lottery, which seems unlikely now if that ever was a possibility…)

I think the Rockets are interesting because there's no way anyone could believe they'd take him over Mobley unless you believe their owner is an idiot... and I think they are using the fact that people do believe he's an idiot to create a market for #2 to trade back a spot or two.

[Degoat]

Garuba is playing against USA right now

[Uriel]

Garuba is playing against USA right now
He’s guarding Durant.

[Degoat]

He’s guarding Durant.

He’s looked solid, that jumper is a big concern tho

[Uriel]

Garuba playing well in front of Pop.

[PhantomDashCam]

I think the Rockets are interesting because there's no way anyone could believe they'd take him over Mobley unless you believe their owner is an idiot... and I think they are using the fact that people do believe he's an idiot to create a market for #2 to trade back a spot or two.

Ah, the old rope-a-“dope”. :lol

[Dejounte]

Garuba is a garbage man type player like Keldon. Would be kind of redundant. He’s not really doing anything special out there other than receiving nice passes from Rubio and making an easy 2.

[offset formation]

spicy

please go to the Kings, Sengun

make Franz drop

we clearly see the potential of sengun differently. and that's ok. I just don't want to hear ppl on this board complain if he turns into a franchise cornerstone which I think he's destined for. also given we have next to no offensive possibilities out of our 4/5 currently, he seems like a natural fit. he's got enough game to play either eventually assuming his shot comes in as I and others expect given his form, fluidity and apparent work ethic.

don't get me wrong either, I'd happily take Wagner at 12 if Sengun is off the board but I think sengun is precisely what's missing from this team.

time will prove one of us right

[Ditty]

Starting to sour a bit on Giddey and starting to like Wagner. Sengun is still number one for me. I think Wagner will be a safe pick and indicate the Spurs are looking to get back to being a great defensive team with the Vassel pick last year also. Which would be nice...

[The Truth #6]

Random thought: UT Austin really has a lockdown on super athletic extremely unskilled post players. Other than LMA and PJ Tucker, I think of Tristan Thompson, Mo Bamba, Jaxson Hayes, and now Kai Jones, Jherico Sims and Greg Brown.

I’m sure I’m forgetting a few players who contradict my point, but they don’t really develop players much there as far as I can tell. I don’t have much trust in their players, basically, and I feel that Kai Jones is going to be there at 12 and I’m hoping we get someone else. I get the appeal from afar but I actually want to see someone contribute at least a little next year.

[Mr. Body]

Starting to sour a bit on Giddey and starting to like Wagner. Sengun is still number one for me. I think Wagner will be a safe pick and indicate the Spurs are looking to get back to being a great defensive team with the Vassel pick last year also. Which would be nice...

I'm also unsure about Giddey. What I'm looking for is a transformative player, one that won't just slop in with the other guards and do sort of the same things. Giddey provides a completely new angle of attack, plus he's a very smart guy, high basketball IQ. I just don't know about the rest.

I think I'm at Sengun, Giddey, Wagner, Moody. Two of those players should be available at #12.

I'm not totally sold on Moody, but he does seem like a very nice two way wing. The idea of pairing Wagner and Vassel as defensive wings is very attractive.

[Dejounte]

we clearly see the potential of sengun differently. and that's ok. I just don't want to hear ppl on this board complain if he turns into a franchise cornerstone which I think he's destined for. also given we have next to no offensive possibilities out of our 4/5 currently, he seems like a natural fit. he's got enough game to play either eventually assuming his shot comes in as I and others expect given his form, fluidity and apparent work ethic.

don't get me wrong either, I'd happily take Wagner at 12 if Sengun is off the board but I think sengun is precisely what's missing from this team.

time will prove one of us right

yeah, I’m not opposed to Sengun at all. If he’s the guy drafted, consider me hyped. However, i doubt he can play any 4 at his current state, and that’s not due to his shooting. It doesn’t look pretty out there for him with European guards blowing by him on the perimeter at the international level. Yeah, he works hard but I have trouble coming up with a player who just improved his lateral movement over time. I’ve seen players improve shooting, sure. But not lateral quickness. Jalen Johnson suffers from this too but between the two of him and Sengun, I have more hope for Sengun actually being less of a liability because he plays smarter.

[Em-City]

yeah, I’m not opposed to Sengun at all. If he’s the guy drafted, consider me hyped. However, i doubt he can play any 4 at his current state, and that’s not due to his shooting. It doesn’t look pretty out there for him with European guards blowing by him on the perimeter at the international level. Yeah, he works hard but I have trouble coming up with a player who just improved his lateral movement over time. I’ve seen players improve shooting, sure. But not lateral quickness. Jalen Johnson suffers from this too but between the two of him and Sengun, I have more hope for Sengun actually being less of a liability because he plays smarter.
He looks like Frank Kaminsky on the perimeter.. i him mostly as a 5, and only payable as a 4 in favorable matchups

[SpursBills]

https://deanondraft.com

Anybody read this guy's blog? A lot of what he says makes a ton of sense. Granted, he's missed big on some prospects in the past i.e. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Trae Young etc. But he's also correctly made some pretty ridiculous calls that were contrarian at the time - correctly called that Wiggins and Parker would bust, Embiid was the top prospect, and even ranked Cappela, Nurkic, and Jokic way higher than consensus at the time.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

yeah, I’m not opposed to Sengun at all. If he’s the guy drafted, consider me hyped. However, i doubt he can play any 4 at his current state, and that’s not due to his shooting. It doesn’t look pretty out there for him with European guards blowing by him on the perimeter at the international level. Yeah, he works hard but I have trouble coming up with a player who just improved his lateral movement over time. I’ve seen players improve shooting, sure. But not lateral quickness. Jalen Johnson suffers from this too but between the two of him and Sengun, I have more hope for Sengun actually being less of a liability because he plays smarter.

Just yesterday you said athletic is not important by referring to Middleton, Booker, Chris Paul, now you're using it against Sengun?

[Dejounte]

Just yesterday you said athletic is not important by referring to Middleton, Booker, Chris Paul, now you're using it against Sengun?


read the post again and see i was referring to elite athleticism

i never said Sengun was unathletic, he is athletic in the strength department

but where it counts most on perimeter defense? Lateral quickness is a different animal, and for Sengun, since he should be a 4 due to the lack of length, he is lacking in that department.

sengun can be good without elite athleticism, i never disputed that. I was pointing out he couldnt be a 4, right now at least

[Manu&Duncan fan]

https://deanondraft.com

Anybody read this guy's blog? A lot of what he says makes a ton of sense. Granted, he's missed big on some prospects in the past i.e. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Trae Young etc. But he's also correctly made some pretty ridiculous calls that were contrarian at the time - correctly called that Wiggins and Parker would bust, Embiid was the top prospect, and even ranked Cappela, Nurkic, and Jokic way higher than consensus at the time.

Great article! Yes NBA can definitely go big again if more big guys have good skills and atheletic. When everything else equals, taller guys win.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

read the post again and see i was referring to elite athleticism

i never said Sengun was unathletic, he is athletic in the strength department

but where it counts most on perimeter defense? Lateral quickness is a different animal, and for Sengun, since he should be a 4 due to the lack of length, he is lacking in that department.

Isengun can be good without elite athleticism, i never disputed that. I was pointing out he couldnt be a 4, right now at least

I see. Sorry I misunderstood you. Thank you for the nice analysis you have been sharing!

[bluebellmaniac]

10 Days until the Draft!

10 are the days until the reckoning on the appointed hour....

[PrimeMinister]

https://deanondraft.com

Anybody read this guy's blog? A lot of what he says makes a ton of sense. Granted, he's missed big on some prospects in the past i.e. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Trae Young etc. But he's also correctly made some pretty ridiculous calls that were contrarian at the time - correctly called that Wiggins and Parker would bust, Embiid was the top prospect, and even ranked Cappela, Nurkic, and Jokic way higher than consensus at the time.

nice, always interesting to see someone pop the hood on their methodology and see how they come to their conclusions on things.

Really interesting reading on Julius Randle, Jokic and Sengun in there. If he’s there at 12- you gotta take him.

[offset formation]

He looks like Frank Kaminsky on the perimeter.. i him mostly as a 5, and only payable as a 4 in favorable matchups

perhaps he does now...he's 18 and never really worked his outside shot because he's so effing smooth in the paint. I'm telling you he's the closest thing to Timmay at his age than anyone we've seen lately, he's Embiid smooth without the weight.

would didnt care if Timmay hit 3s so much because he was so dominant down low. now hear me completely...he's not Duncan. but he could be the new era Duncan that starts going out to the 3 pt line moreso than Tim ever did. but he has the midrange and postmoves that give you a reminder of Tim's impact on the game.

[mo7888]

Apparently Alperen Sengun is at the Spurs practice facility now..

[Dejounte]

Apparently Alperen Sengun is at the Spurs practice facility now..

spicy

[Degoat]

ITS HAPPENING!! Lmao

[Ocotillo]

https://i0.wp.com/studentunionsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/the-office-its-happening-gif-5.gif?ssl=1

[Mr. Body]

https://i0.wp.com/studentunionsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/the-office-its-happening-gif-5.gif?ssl=1

I DECLARE ALPEREN SENGUUUUUUUUUUUUNNNNNNN

[Dejounte]

Either Poeltl is gone, or I hope Sengun’s worked on his quickness by a lot (if he’s the pick)

[PrimeMinister]

This getting out means he’s going to the kings or some shit

this years Patrick Williams

[John B]

I wouldn’t mind having Sengun. I think he needs to remain at C because of his great footwork and bbal IQ and facilitate from the post, but needs to be paired with a stretch big, Dieng, Samanic, Lauri (?). I don’t really want him slimming down but rather developing his strength in the post. His game is a natural 5, not a 4. But it wouldn’t hurt to develop a consistent 3 pt shot.

[BacktoBasics]

Is this guy not Frank Kaminsky?

[Mr. Body]

Is this guy not Frank Kaminsky?

In that they both play basketball?

[Cardinal]

Pop is apparently at the workout per Sengun’s IG story. Quick turnaround from the USAB game yesterday

[Dejounte]

Pop is apparently at the workout per Sengun’s IG story. Quick turnaround from the USAB game yesterday

are they assuming the guy with the white hair is Pop? If so the scouting for Sengun must be pretty serious

[Dejounte]

I dont believe Pop flew out from his USA duties for every single prospect reported to work out for the Spurs so far. Sengun is a real candidate, IMO

[Dejounte]

That being said, on the topic of Spurs “hiding who they’re interested in” per The Truth #6 , you cant stop guys like Sengun who blow the Spurs’ cover by posting on IG who theyre working out for. Unless they only tell the prospects theyre interested in to NOT post about it. Which in that case… Sengun is a smokescreen.

[Cardinal]

are they assuming the guy with the white hair is Pop? If so the scouting for Sengun must be pretty serious

Yes just an assumption based on the photo. The guy in the background looks like Pop to me but who knows. If it’s Pop, I think that’s pretty significant

[The Truth #6]

That being said, on the topic of Spurs “hiding who they’re interested in” per The Truth #6 , you cant stop guys like Sengun who blow the Spurs’ cover by posting on IG who theyre working out for. Unless they only tell the prospects theyre interested in to NOT post about it. Which in that case… Sengun is a smokescreen.

Unless it’s a double trick. Hiding him in plain sight! Joking. I have no way to predict this stuff with the gamesmanship. Now, if we see a workout video of Sengun bricking 3s or showing awful form, then we could wonder if something is up just like Vassel last year.

Or not at all.

[exstatic]

Apparently Alperen Sengun is at the Spurs practice facility now..

ohpleasegod

[exstatic]

Is this guy not Frank Kaminsky?

Deanondraft says that both he and Mobley could be better than Jokic. I’ve been team Sengün since Dejounte’s poll started.

[Degoat]

That’s gotta be pop in the pic right?

[Mr. Body]

That being said, on the topic of Spurs “hiding who they’re interested in” per The Truth #6 , you cant stop guys like Sengun who blow the Spurs’ cover by posting on IG who theyre working out for. Unless they only tell the prospects theyre interested in to NOT post about it. Which in that case… Sengun is a smokescreen.

At this point in the draft, I don't know if you need to really hide your picks. For a Batum dropping late, yes, but Sengun has been tabbed as a potential Spurs interest for a while. It's more just a matter of whether the several picks before them go elsewhere or not. Now, I don't expect the FO to talk up Sengun, or talk him down. Just expect them to be quiet about where they go: like many here, I'm sure they have a tier of players of whom a few will be available at that point.

[Mr. Body]

Another number-crunching blog: https://what-to-consume.com/

Read thru. He thinks Kai Jones is badly overrated. I agree. Kai Jones is a 2nd round pick, to me.

What's interesting is that he sees good upside for Greg Brown.

[TD 21]

Either Poeltl is gone, or I hope Sengun’s worked on his quickness by a lot (if he’s the pick)

Poeltl is not gone because they might select an 18 year old, non sure thing prospect. Sengun would face an uphill battle just to crack the rotation next season, let alone unseat a starter.

Dieng would be the likely casualty (Hollinger already indicated as much), which would place a premium on acquiring a floor spacing 4.5 to give them a stretch 5 option.



I wouldn’t mind having Sengun. I think he needs to remain at C because of his great footwork and bbal IQ and facilitate from the post, but needs to be paired with a stretch big, Dieng, Samanic, Lauri (?). I don’t really want him slimming down but rather developing his strength in the post. His game is a natural 5, not a 4. But it wouldn’t hurt to develop a consistent 3 pt shot.

He needs to be paired with a four who provides floor spacing and rim protection (obviously not easy to find), but they'd have time. It's not like he'd be expected to play a prominent role next season.

[Mr. Body]

Sengun probably is the four.

[ginobilized]

Maybe I am old and decrepit, but, I don't see anything on Sengun's IG account about the Spurs.

[Kurik]

Maybe I am old and decrepit, but, I don't see anything on Sengun's IG account about the Spurs.

Instagram story, have to click on his profile picture that is shaped like those clocks the doctors make you draw at your appointments.

[The Truth #6]

Maybe I am old and decrepit, but, I don't see anything on Sengun's IG account about the Spurs.

It's on his IG story thing. It's not in the photos. Yes, I looked.

[The Truth #6]

If we get Sengun, I see Eubanks as the more likely casualty. I think they would be silly to not pursue Dieng. But hey, silliness happens.

[TD 21]

Sengun probably is the four.

Not in this era and before you mention Sabonis, that's by default since the Pacers lack a modern four (even if you want to say Warren, they don't have the wing depth to accommodate it) and since Turner is a top 3-5 player on the team and compliments him about as well as another center could, they're forced into starting and playing them together some.



If we get Sengun, I see Eubanks as the more likely casualty. I think they would be silly to not pursue Dieng. But hey, silliness happens.

I agree that they should do that. Since Sengun is unlikely to play much as a rookie anyway, re-sign Dieng for 2 years, let him serve as the primary backup until late in the season when they're buried and if the former is ready to usurp him sometime during the following season, the latter could become a trade/buyout candidate.

In the meantime, Eubanks could be thrown into trade packages.

[pad300]

If we draft Sengun, I agree that we will have to make a choice (2 of 3) from Poetl, Eubanks and resigning Dieng. However if it's between Poetl and Eubanks, I suspect it may be made more on the basis of what they can get for whom...

[Mr. Body]

Roko Prkacin withdrew from the draft.

[Dejounte]

Tbh I still find it hard to believe the Spurs will move on from Poeltl. I’m more inclined to believe they’ll force Sengun into a 4 than have him at his natural position (im no coach) and maybe it will work. Yes, Sengun has a long road ahead of him to be an actual contributor, but still. I think Poeltl is here as the long term starting C.

[Dejounte]

Any player they draft at #12 you’d expect the Spurs to have a vision of them being a starter down the road.

[Degoat]

If the spurs draft Sengun I believe he’ll be Jakobs backup, and eventually the starter. The spurs have bought into playing a small 4 (Keldon/Luka)

[Mr. Body]

Tbh I still find it hard to believe the Spurs will move on from Poeltl. I’m more inclined to believe they’ll force Sengun into a 4 than have him at his natural position (im no coach) and maybe it will work. Yes, Sengun has a long road ahead of him to be an actual contributor, but still. I think Poeltl is here as the long term starting C.

I can see moving on from Poeltl, but not yet. I do see a Sengun-Poeltl possibility in the frontcourt, like we've seen Lopez-Giannis in Milwaukee. But we'll see.

[PhantomDashCam]

Good stuff guys.

https://twitter.com/JeffGSpursZone/status/1417167516300947458?s=20

If that is indeed Pop, pretty encouraging for team Sengun.

Not long now. Going to get at least two solid prospects come draft time. :hungry:

[ace3g]

Here is the photo from the story

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6rKNbMXEAEteXB?format=jpg&name=large

[SAGirl]

Either Poeltl is gone, or I hope Sengun’s worked on his quickness by a lot (if he’s the pick)
It’s no secret Pop likes bigs who can be an offensive threat. I believe that was the pursuit of Lamarcus and Pau. They have tended to play smaller because of team composition and not being able to replace those bigs but this pick wouldn’t surprise me at all.

[Dejounte]

If the spurs draft Sengun I believe he’ll be Jakobs backup, and eventually the starter. The spurs have bought into playing a small 4 (Keldon/Luka)


I can see moving on from Poeltl, but not yet. I do see a Sengun-Poeltl possibility in the frontcourt, like we've seen Lopez-Giannis in Milwaukee. But we'll see.

I’ll clarify and say that the reasoning behind my post is purely based off on Pop’s words during the season. I think they view him as a real anchor for the team defensively. He drew massive praise. Not the fake praise.

[SAGirl]

Pop is apparently at the workout per Sengun’s IG story. Quick turnaround from the USAB game yesterday
Intriguing that Pop wanted to see him in person…. Aha moment

[Mr. Body]

Intriguing that Pop wanted to see him in person…. Aha moment

My guess is they might try to get others in before Pop has to go to Japan.

[ace3g]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSRAuFX-Tlg


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOdWzvUkGI

[SAGirl]

My guess is they might try to get others in before Pop has to go to Japan.
Yup, prioritizing subjects of high interest…

[TD 21]

I can see moving on from Poeltl, but not yet. I do see a Sengun-Poeltl possibility in the frontcourt, like we've seen Lopez-Giannis in Milwaukee. But we'll see.

:lmao At comparing traditional bigs to Antetokounmpo.

[Mr. Body]

:lmao At comparing traditional bigs to Antetokounmpo.

Eh.

[BacktoBasics]

Deanondraft says that both he and Mobley could be better than Jokic. I’ve been team Sengün since Dejounte’s poll started.

I’ve always viewed Jokic as an anomaly. That physical make up doesn’t usually translate to today’s game at the level he’s at.

Is this guy another Zeller?

What are his comps?

[Dejounte]

I’ve always viewed Jokic as an anomaly. That physical make up doesn’t usually translate to today’s game at the level he’s at.

Is this guy another Zeller?

What are his comps?

higher IQ Isaiah Stewart with less strength and wingspan

[Mr. Body]

I’ve always viewed Jokic as an anomaly. That physical make up doesn’t usually translate to today’s game at the level he’s at.

Is this guy another Zeller?

What are his comps?

It's really weird hearing people say "that physical make up doesn't translate" to today's NBA when there are a number of other players with Jokic's physical make up throughout the NBA. I think draft makes some people get weird, like they think the league is filled with only ridiculous athletes.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/07/10/is-alperen-sengun-too-old-school-to-succeed-or-too-talented-to-fail/

That same site givs rundowns of Sengun vs. Sabonis and Kevin Love, then a wider breakdown vs. Embiid, Draymond Green, Blake Griffin, etc., on the defensive side of the ball as each came into the league.

[Marco]

No way Sengün falls to 12.

[Dejounte]

No way Sengün falls to 12.

we have been saying this about nearly every prospect now lmao

[BacktoBasics]

It's really weird hearing people say "that physical make up doesn't translate" to today's NBA when there are a number of other players with Jokic's physical make up throughout the NBA. I think draft makes some people get weird, like they think the league is filled with only ridiculous athletes.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/07/10/is-alperen-sengun-too-old-school-to-succeed-or-too-talented-to-fail/

That same site givs rundowns of Sengun vs. Sabonis and Kevin Love, then a wider breakdown vs. Embiid, Draymond Green, Blake Griffin, etc., on the defensive side of the ball as each came into the league.
Great read. Thanks.

[Dejounte]

Sengun on his way to Orlando for a workout.

[exstatic]

I’ve always viewed Jokic as an anomaly. That physical make up doesn’t usually translate to today’s game at the level he’s at.

Is this guy another Zeller?

What are his comps?

Jokic WAS an anomaly. The rules changes of 2015 will generate new kinds of players. It’s inevitable.

[exstatic]

This guy had Jokic at 16, and he fell into the second round. That was 5 years ago. Seems like he knows his stuff. Even Denver, who saw something, drafted the wrong -ic in the first round.

[duncan2150]

That being said, on the topic of Spurs “hiding who they’re interested in” per The Truth #6 (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=6189) , you cant stop guys like Sengun who blow the Spurs’ cover by posting on IG who theyre working out for. Unless they only tell the prospects theyre interested in to NOT post about it. Which in that case… Sengun is a smokescreen.


Remember that they clearly showed their interest in Samanic before the draft.

[PhantomDashCam]

Sengun on his way to Orlando for a workout.

That’d be, IMO, a really good move for them.

If the Spurs really love Sengun and you hear he’s in play for Orlando at #8, the GS pick at #7 suddenly vaults into serious trade discussions,(if it isn’t already)…

[Mr. Body]

That’d be, IMO, a really good move for them.

If the Spurs really love Sengun and you hear he’s in play for Orlando at #8, the GS pick at #7 suddenly vaults into serious trade discussions,(if it isn’t already)…

I don't know what Orlando's plan is. They don't have a lot of talent, having just blown it up, but I don't know what their direction is. Tankathon, for example, has them taking Scottie Barnes and Keon Johnson right now. That's the sort of draft they need, hard workers who have good upsides plus a defensive mentality.

[tonight...you]

Here is the photo from the story

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6rKNbMXEAEteXB?format=jpg&name=large
Yeah... that's not Pop.

[The Truth #6]

Yeah... that's not Pop.

I’m ready for some #fakepop conspiracy. I mean you, zoom in and he sort of looks different. And what’s up with that empty chair at the free throw line? Pop tells Sengun, “I heard you couldn’t even guard an empty chair,” and then he walks away and Sengun takes a photo and asks, “Wait, so are we done?”

Joking. But conspiracy mongering could be a hilarious distraction until draft day. I’m not sure what’s left to discuss.

[bluebellmaniac]

Yeah... that's not Pop.

Yeah, nowhere close to being Pop. But gotta start some rumors and excitement somehow.

[exstatic]

If it is Pop, you can throw out any “he doesn’t care any more” Bullshit. USAB has a game at 730 AM on Wednesday, half a world away. He’d have at least one connection, so like a 14-15 hour trip.

[tonight...you]

I’m ready for some #fakepop conspiracy. I mean you, zoom in and he sort of looks different. And what’s up with that empty chair at the free throw line? Pop tells Sengun, “I heard you couldn’t even guard an empty chair,” and then he walks away and Sengun takes a photo and asks, “Wait, so are we done?”

Joking. But conspiracy mongering could be a hilarious distraction until draft day. I’m not sure what’s left to discuss.
Lol.
I hear you.

[buttsR4rebounding]

If the spurs draft Sengun I believe he’ll be Jakobs backup, and eventually the starter. The spurs have bought into playing a small 4 (Keldon/Luka)

Luka is 6’10” officially and supposedly has grown over an inch since drafted-hardly a small 4. I agree with Sengun being a back up at 5. In 2 years Jakob could easily command 15 million a year. At that point you’re probably renouncing him to go after a free agent or paying some of our young guns.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSRAuFX-Tlg


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOdWzvUkGI

From the above video, looks like Sengun will be a top 5 pick. So much skills,, just like Jokic.

[talkspurs]

If it is Pop, you can throw out any “he doesn’t care any more” Bullshit. USAB has a game at 730 AM on Wednesday, half a world away. He’d have at least one connection, so like a 14-15 hour trip.

They were in Vegas and were supposed to be leaving for Tokyo today so he easily could have stopped by.

[John B]

Yeah... that's not Pop.

Why would anyone post that picture if it's not Pop? We're reading too much into it. That's Pop.
The same as he flew all the way to U.S. Virgin Islands to meet Timmy, I would say the same for Sengun?

So if Spurs draft Sengun, he plays backup center to Jakob. And hopefully he grows an inch or two. And in 2 years Jakob demands more money, Sengun can easily slide to starting, or even maybe next season depends on the competition.

Not to compare him to Timmy, Sengun also started as a swimmer then turned into basketball.

[PhantomDashCam]

I don't know what Orlando's plan is. They don't have a lot of talent, having just blown it up, but I don't know what their direction is. Tankathon, for example, has them taking Scottie Barnes and Keon Johnson right now. That's the sort of draft they need, hard workers who have good upsides plus a defensive mentality.

I think they have an interesting mix of young talent there (a lot of their young guys need some luck on the injury front though), but really nothing proven.

Their new coach could do wonders for them in developing a culture, style of play.

Here he is working with Mo Bamba. Great stuff on post work intricacies:

https://www.nba.com/magic/videos/mo-bamba/orlando-magic-workout-jamahl-mosley-amway-center-20210715

Pure conspiracy theory here - they sign Moe Wagner for the remainder of the season last year…
Mosely has extensive experience with Big name, international prospects in the NBA…

Perhaps they’re gearing up for a Franz and Sengun combination of picks?

[Mr. Body]

I'd wager money that's Pop. The same huge shirt, same spindly old man legs, same kind of hunch as he walks. Unless they have clones walking around, that's Pop.

[Excessive Egotist]

Sengun would make a great back up to Ben Simmons. I'm glad to see the Spurs are considering investing the remaining 13 minutes of center minutes in Dwarf Jokic.

[Dejounte]

Why would anyone post that picture if it's not Pop? We're reading too much into it. That's Pop.
The same as he flew all the way to U.S. Virgin Islands to meet Timmy, I would say the same for Sengun?

So if Spurs draft Sengun, he plays backup center to Jakob. And hopefully he grows an inch or two. And in 2 years Jakob demands more money, Sengun can easily slide to starting, or even maybe next season depends on the competition.

Not to compare him to Timmy, Sengun also started as a swimmer then turned into basketball.

uh Sengun posted it. He wasnt taking that photo because Pop was in it (if that is him). He’s doing what every prospect is doing right now and taking photos at each stop they make prior to the draft

[Dejounte]

Future Spur Chris Duarte invited to the green room.

[KobesAchilles]

Luka is 6’10” officially and supposedly has grown over an inch since drafted-hardly a small 4. I agree with Sengun being a back up at 5. In 2 years Jakob could easily command 15 million a year. At that point you’re probably renouncing him to go after a free agent or paying some of our young guns.
Yeah nobody is paying Jak $15 million a year. You don’t pay back up big man/ fringe starters that kinda money. Especially when he can’t shoot the ball and kills your spacing and probably plays 25 minutes a game. You start paying players like Jak that kinda money and you will be in the lottery really fast.

[mo7888]

Yeah nobody is paying Jak $15 million a year. You don’t pay back up big man/ fringe starters that kinda money. Especially when he can’t shoot the ball and kills your spacing and probably plays 25 minutes a game. You start paying players like Jak that kinda money and you will be in the lottery really fast.

If Gobert can get $40M (no he's not worth it) then Jak can get $15M (no he's not worth it)....it only takes one...

[John B]

If Gobert can get $40M (no he's not worth it) then Jak can get $15M (no he's not worth it)....it only takes one...
Did you just compare Poeltl to 3x DPOY, 5x All Defensive 1st team, almost 14 rebs and 3 blocks per game? By the way Gorbert hits his FT about 63%. If Poeltl can put those kind of numbers, why not?

[tim_duncan_fan]

The pick should be Kai Jones. We need dynamism and potential.

[Dejounte]

Great analysis of Kai:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/onl8vn/oc_kai_jones_is_a_project_not_worth_taking/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

[OC] Kai Jones Is A Project Not Worth Taking


I’ve written 3 posts in the past few weeks -- the first advocating against Davion Mitchell, and the next in favor of Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba. I was often clear in the comments that I’m not dogmatic about my rankings. If Sengun/Garuba go 10 spots lower or Davion Mitchell 20+ spots higher than I think, it’s really no skin off my back. There are no certainties in the draft, and you shouldn’t get too worked up about anything.


I write this to say that I do not feel this way about Kai Jones. **Jones across many mocks is pegged to go in the lottery/mid-first, and I think this would be a disaster.** Jones was a liability as a sophomore, and would need essentially unprecedented growth to warrant a selection that high. I have him as a second rounder, and even then it is difficult to value the pick as he won't receive the playing time he needs to develop.


I will first cover Jones’ overall game. I will then lay out his most direct college statistical comparisons. I will end by comparing his college production to similarly styled current NBA bigs.


**Jones’ Game**


First, the physicals:


||Jones|Average NBA Center|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Height|6'10|6'10|
|Reach|9'2.5|9'2|
|Weight|221|250|
|Wingspan|7'1.75|7'3.5|


Jones has typical measurements for an NBA big man, with only shorter arms and a calorie deficit. But, with the league getting smaller, this is an excellent combine showing.


He did not test athletically, but he’s clearly a superior athlete. He glides to the rim effortlessly for jams, and projects to have some [impressive transition finishes](https://streamable.com/sawdba). Jones also moves well side to side, evidenced by this [swat of Cade Cunningham](https://streamable.com/888q2f) (who himself was a pretty paltry and uncreative interior scorer but that’s for another post). In terms of god given gifts, Jones is big, with the high end athleticism needed to succeed at the next level.


In terms of production, he’s an advanced finisher, putting home 75% of rim attempts ([hoopmath](http://hoop-math.com/Texas2021.php)). He finished the season with a 65 TS%, which would be even higher if he did not enjoy the mid-range J so much. Moreover, these were not often easy lobs. On the brilliantly constructed Texas basketball team, Jones played the 5 next to Greg Brown, or the 4 next to old school big Jericho Sims (this miserable hydra was saved by a talented triumvirate of upperclassman guard play). Adapting to this spacing, Jones often worked from the perimeter, demonstrating the ability to [put the ball on the floor](https://streamable.com/a5qin2), and [finish with grace](https://streamable.com/1zamjt).


It’s easy to see the flashes of an inside out defender with a somewhat high offensive acumen. He also has only been playing basketball for 5 or 6 years, giving hope for some untapped talent. In general, he is raw, but has great size, athleticism, and has shown flashes of talent that has convinced many he is a lottery pick.


**My Issues**


My largest issue with Jones is that he’s discussed as if he is a limitless 18 year old. He’s a 20.5 year old sophomore who started one game behind two generally unimpressive bigs (I can’t stress how not-good Greg Brown is at basketball). If Jones goes in the lottery, **he will be the first non-freshman since Dion Waiters to play under 25 minutes and still be drafted top 14.** Usually, when guys are in a class of their own, it can be really good or really bad. When you’re in a class of two with Dion Waiters, well it’s not great.


**Even in those limited minutes, he was also terribly unproductive**. He almost always shared the floor with Brown or Sims which could depress his block/rebound numbers, but neither of those guys are exactly Hakeem Olajuwon let alone Joel Pryzbilla. **To demonstrate just how perilous his college company is, below are some notable forwards and centers who in their sophomore year charted similar BLK/REB rates to Kai Jones**. I’ve included those player’s assist/turnover rates to paint a picture of their overall production, in addition to made three point field goals. These stats are somewhat cherry-picked (as all are), but should articulate the kind of role Jones will ostensibly play at the next level -- **floor spacer, rebounder, shot blocker, and facilitator**. (I generally use rates as Jones played so little, and it's simply a better metric).


​


|Player|3PT FGs|3PT%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Ben Bentil|52|33%|12.4|3.1|8|9.3|
|Luke Kornet|50|40%|9.8|5.5|10.9|14.6|
|Tyler Lydon|49|39%|13.7|4.7|10.8|13.6|
|Killian Tillie|45|48%|12.9|4.2|11.5|14.1|
|Dylan Windler|37|37%|12.5|3.3|9.6|12.5|
|**Kai Jones**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**|**4.2**|**5.4**|** 16.8**|


Jones rebounded and blocked shots on comparable levels to a group of under-athletic or undersized 4s and 5s. **This is a guy with great measurements for a center and uber athleticism, yet had a worse block rate than Tyler Lydon.** Not only that, but he made dramatically fewer three pointers than this crop, with by far the worst AST% and highest TO rate. There’s a reason he could not get minutes over Brown and Sims -- he is not good at basketball.


To be clear, this is not simply statistics. This is all readily available in the film:


I’m not going to linger on basic IQ mistakes that every college player makes ([like this](https://streamable.com/gm4bhs) [or this](https://streamable.com/rq8xkl)), but some are day 1 basketball rules such as [do not immediately start dribbling upcourt when you get a rebound](https://streamable.com/pbv44s). There’s also instances of not really understanding [the dimensions of the floor](https://streamable.com/h56wpo), and just general clumsiness[ 1](https://streamable.com/4xeg8a), [2](https://streamable.com/oi3g6d), [3](https://streamable.com/6qsqbt).


This is young basketball stuff, and his basketball years are still quite green. The problem is that he is physically a man, but lacks control over his body. We give 18 year olds a break because they are still developing. It is hard to gives Jones the same leash.


Quite of this clumsiness could of course be salvaged by a high motor, which he totally lacks. Here is the [quintessential Kai Jones play](https://streamable.com/xbkxg1) \-- **he gives up position to go for a steal, falls to the ground, and then just kinda stops playing basketball.** These are often physical plays, but he routinely shows zero fight and less strength as he routinely gets wiped out of post position [1](https://streamable.com/tbcfoj) [2](https://streamable.com/9x01sk) [3](https://streamable.com/tmnjlw) [4](https://streamable.com/jjmndo) [5](https://streamable.com/lna6c1) [6](https://streamable.com/20r0wb). You simply can't explain someone like Jones contributing like Killian Tillie on defense unless they simply don't play hard. These clips are also key to anyone waving away his low rebound/block figures due to playing with other bigs - **they were on the floor because Jones was so hopeless guarding the post or defending the rim.**


**Current NBA Players College Production**


Here I’ve tallied a list of 4/5s to whom Jones would likely play a similar role -- generally thinner bigs with perimeter skills and flexible defense -- and I've slapped together their college numbers upon being drafted (besides Larry Nance) to compare. These are absolutely not perfect comps, but more aim for the role Jones might play in the NBA (sorted by PTS/40):


​


|Player|Age|PTS/40|3PT FGs|3Pt%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|John Collins|19.7|28.8|1|0|21.1|6.6|4.5|11.1|
|Kelly Olynyk|22.1|27|9|30%|17.4|5.1|15.1|15.4|
|Zach Collins|19.6|23.2|10|47%|18.4|9.8|4.4|17.8|
|Mike Muscala|20|21.5|4|36%|15.5|8.1|12.2|11.7|
|Lauri Markkannen|20.1|20.2|69|42%|14|1.8|5.6|8.1|
|Jaren Jackson Jr.|18.7|20|38|39%|15|14.3|9.3|17.4|
|Christian Wood|19.8|19.3|25|28%|17|8.2|9.2|14.7|
|Chris Boucher|23.5|18.7|39|34%|16.5|11.8|2.9|10.5|
|Nic Claxton|20.5|16.4|18|28%|14.9|8|12.2|14.7|
|**Kai Jones**|**20.5**|**15.5**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**| **4.2**|**5.4**|**16.8**|
|Larry Nance|20.5|13.3|10|34%|14.7|2.7|9.8|14.7|


​


I think these numbers are frankly self-explanatory, but **the long and short of it is that Kelly Olynyk was a better college rebounder and shot blocker than Kai Jones.** Digging a bit deeper, you also find here rail thin players like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Collins (who both played next to bigs in college) who out rebounded Jones, while doubling and tripling his block rate at younger ages. Christian Wood, a nominal comp with a questionable defensive role in the NBA, blocked shots at 2x the rate and was a far better rebounder, on top of making more threes and better facilitating. The only player here who Jones remotely resembles is Larry Nance Jr., who is 2.5 inches shorter and quite a bit more skilled at the same age (he also was a late first rounder 2 years after putting up those numbers). Somehow, Lauri Markkanen, who didn't dribble in college, touted a better assist rate (and better rebounding). It's difficult to stress how far behind this cohort he is at the point of being drafted.


In conclusion, **Jones skill level compares to extremely athletic but unskilled bigs, while his athletic stats (rebounds, blocks) compares to skilled, undersized bigs.** This is a very startling suite of statistics for a possibly lottery pick. The only explanation is that he hasn’t been playing basketball very long, **which at some point is not a positive. He’s going to have to learn basic fundamentals to contribute, and will need considerable time in the D-league**. Any team that drafts him will have to be patient, but also calibrate the necessity of investing so much in someone who will already be 21 by their first NBA game. I have about 40+ guys above Jones on my board, and as a second rounder I’m not sure he’s worth it. Why invest so many resources when by the time he’s developed he’ll likely be on another team?


Thanks for reading.

[KobesAchilles]

If Gobert can get $40M (no he's not worth it) then Jak can get $15M (no he's not worth it)....it only takes one...
As long as WE aren’t the one idgaf who pays Jak :lol

[Teamduncan21]

Did you just compare Poeltl to 3x DPOY, 5x All Defensive 1st team, almost 14 rebs and 3 blocks per game? By the way Gorbert hits his FT about 63%. If Poeltl can put those kind of numbers, why not?

That's why 15m not 40m ?

[mo7888]

Did you just compare Poeltl to 3x DPOY, 5x All Defensive 1st team, almost 14 rebs and 3 blocks per game? By the way Gorbert hits his FT about 63%. If Poeltl can put those kind of numbers, why not?

I compared guys who would be overpaid at the amounts I listed...the comparison was in regard to salary not necessarily ability.

[Mr. Body]

Great analysis of Kai:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/onl8vn/oc_kai_jones_is_a_project_not_worth_taking/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

[OC] Kai Jones Is A Project Not Worth Taking


I’ve written 3 posts in the past few weeks -- the first advocating against Davion Mitchell, and the next in favor of Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba. I was often clear in the comments that I’m not dogmatic about my rankings. If Sengun/Garuba go 10 spots lower or Davion Mitchell 20+ spots higher than I think, it’s really no skin off my back. There are no certainties in the draft, and you shouldn’t get too worked up about anything.


I write this to say that I do not feel this way about Kai Jones. **Jones across many mocks is pegged to go in the lottery/mid-first, and I think this would be a disaster.** Jones was a liability as a sophomore, and would need essentially unprecedented growth to warrant a selection that high. I have him as a second rounder, and even then it is difficult to value the pick as he won't receive the playing time he needs to develop.


I will first cover Jones’ overall game. I will then lay out his most direct college statistical comparisons. I will end by comparing his college production to similarly styled current NBA bigs.


**Jones’ Game**


First, the physicals:


||Jones|Average NBA Center|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Height|6'10|6'10|
|Reach|9'2.5|9'2|
|Weight|221|250|
|Wingspan|7'1.75|7'3.5|


Jones has typical measurements for an NBA big man, with only shorter arms and a calorie deficit. But, with the league getting smaller, this is an excellent combine showing.


He did not test athletically, but he’s clearly a superior athlete. He glides to the rim effortlessly for jams, and projects to have some [impressive transition finishes](https://streamable.com/sawdba). Jones also moves well side to side, evidenced by this [swat of Cade Cunningham](https://streamable.com/888q2f) (who himself was a pretty paltry and uncreative interior scorer but that’s for another post). In terms of god given gifts, Jones is big, with the high end athleticism needed to succeed at the next level.


In terms of production, he’s an advanced finisher, putting home 75% of rim attempts ([hoopmath](http://hoop-math.com/Texas2021.php)). He finished the season with a 65 TS%, which would be even higher if he did not enjoy the mid-range J so much. Moreover, these were not often easy lobs. On the brilliantly constructed Texas basketball team, Jones played the 5 next to Greg Brown, or the 4 next to old school big Jericho Sims (this miserable hydra was saved by a talented triumvirate of upperclassman guard play). Adapting to this spacing, Jones often worked from the perimeter, demonstrating the ability to [put the ball on the floor](https://streamable.com/a5qin2), and [finish with grace](https://streamable.com/1zamjt).


It’s easy to see the flashes of an inside out defender with a somewhat high offensive acumen. He also has only been playing basketball for 5 or 6 years, giving hope for some untapped talent. In general, he is raw, but has great size, athleticism, and has shown flashes of talent that has convinced many he is a lottery pick.


**My Issues**


My largest issue with Jones is that he’s discussed as if he is a limitless 18 year old. He’s a 20.5 year old sophomore who started one game behind two generally unimpressive bigs (I can’t stress how not-good Greg Brown is at basketball). If Jones goes in the lottery, **he will be the first non-freshman since Dion Waiters to play under 25 minutes and still be drafted top 14.** Usually, when guys are in a class of their own, it can be really good or really bad. When you’re in a class of two with Dion Waiters, well it’s not great.


**Even in those limited minutes, he was also terribly unproductive**. He almost always shared the floor with Brown or Sims which could depress his block/rebound numbers, but neither of those guys are exactly Hakeem Olajuwon let alone Joel Pryzbilla. **To demonstrate just how perilous his college company is, below are some notable forwards and centers who in their sophomore year charted similar BLK/REB rates to Kai Jones**. I’ve included those player’s assist/turnover rates to paint a picture of their overall production, in addition to made three point field goals. These stats are somewhat cherry-picked (as all are), but should articulate the kind of role Jones will ostensibly play at the next level -- **floor spacer, rebounder, shot blocker, and facilitator**. (I generally use rates as Jones played so little, and it's simply a better metric).


​


|Player|3PT FGs|3PT%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Ben Bentil|52|33%|12.4|3.1|8|9.3|
|Luke Kornet|50|40%|9.8|5.5|10.9|14.6|
|Tyler Lydon|49|39%|13.7|4.7|10.8|13.6|
|Killian Tillie|45|48%|12.9|4.2|11.5|14.1|
|Dylan Windler|37|37%|12.5|3.3|9.6|12.5|
|**Kai Jones**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**|**4.2**|**5.4**|** 16.8**|


Jones rebounded and blocked shots on comparable levels to a group of under-athletic or undersized 4s and 5s. **This is a guy with great measurements for a center and uber athleticism, yet had a worse block rate than Tyler Lydon.** Not only that, but he made dramatically fewer three pointers than this crop, with by far the worst AST% and highest TO rate. There’s a reason he could not get minutes over Brown and Sims -- he is not good at basketball.


To be clear, this is not simply statistics. This is all readily available in the film:


I’m not going to linger on basic IQ mistakes that every college player makes ([like this](https://streamable.com/gm4bhs) [or this](https://streamable.com/rq8xkl)), but some are day 1 basketball rules such as [do not immediately start dribbling upcourt when you get a rebound](https://streamable.com/pbv44s). There’s also instances of not really understanding [the dimensions of the floor](https://streamable.com/h56wpo), and just general clumsiness[ 1](https://streamable.com/4xeg8a), [2](https://streamable.com/oi3g6d), [3](https://streamable.com/6qsqbt).


This is young basketball stuff, and his basketball years are still quite green. The problem is that he is physically a man, but lacks control over his body. We give 18 year olds a break because they are still developing. It is hard to gives Jones the same leash.


Quite of this clumsiness could of course be salvaged by a high motor, which he totally lacks. Here is the [quintessential Kai Jones play](https://streamable.com/xbkxg1) \-- **he gives up position to go for a steal, falls to the ground, and then just kinda stops playing basketball.** These are often physical plays, but he routinely shows zero fight and less strength as he routinely gets wiped out of post position [1](https://streamable.com/tbcfoj) [2](https://streamable.com/9x01sk) [3](https://streamable.com/tmnjlw) [4](https://streamable.com/jjmndo) [5](https://streamable.com/lna6c1) [6](https://streamable.com/20r0wb). You simply can't explain someone like Jones contributing like Killian Tillie on defense unless they simply don't play hard. These clips are also key to anyone waving away his low rebound/block figures due to playing with other bigs - **they were on the floor because Jones was so hopeless guarding the post or defending the rim.**


**Current NBA Players College Production**


Here I’ve tallied a list of 4/5s to whom Jones would likely play a similar role -- generally thinner bigs with perimeter skills and flexible defense -- and I've slapped together their college numbers upon being drafted (besides Larry Nance) to compare. These are absolutely not perfect comps, but more aim for the role Jones might play in the NBA (sorted by PTS/40):


​


|Player|Age|PTS/40|3PT FGs|3Pt%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|John Collins|19.7|28.8|1|0|21.1|6.6|4.5|11.1|
|Kelly Olynyk|22.1|27|9|30%|17.4|5.1|15.1|15.4|
|Zach Collins|19.6|23.2|10|47%|18.4|9.8|4.4|17.8|
|Mike Muscala|20|21.5|4|36%|15.5|8.1|12.2|11.7|
|Lauri Markkannen|20.1|20.2|69|42%|14|1.8|5.6|8.1|
|Jaren Jackson Jr.|18.7|20|38|39%|15|14.3|9.3|17.4|
|Christian Wood|19.8|19.3|25|28%|17|8.2|9.2|14.7|
|Chris Boucher|23.5|18.7|39|34%|16.5|11.8|2.9|10.5|
|Nic Claxton|20.5|16.4|18|28%|14.9|8|12.2|14.7|
|**Kai Jones**|**20.5**|**15.5**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**| **4.2**|**5.4**|**16.8**|
|Larry Nance|20.5|13.3|10|34%|14.7|2.7|9.8|14.7|


​


I think these numbers are frankly self-explanatory, but **the long and short of it is that Kelly Olynyk was a better college rebounder and shot blocker than Kai Jones.** Digging a bit deeper, you also find here rail thin players like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Collins (who both played next to bigs in college) who out rebounded Jones, while doubling and tripling his block rate at younger ages. Christian Wood, a nominal comp with a questionable defensive role in the NBA, blocked shots at 2x the rate and was a far better rebounder, on top of making more threes and better facilitating. The only player here who Jones remotely resembles is Larry Nance Jr., who is 2.5 inches shorter and quite a bit more skilled at the same age (he also was a late first rounder 2 years after putting up those numbers). Somehow, Lauri Markkanen, who didn't dribble in college, touted a better assist rate (and better rebounding). It's difficult to stress how far behind this cohort he is at the point of being drafted.


In conclusion, **Jones skill level compares to extremely athletic but unskilled bigs, while his athletic stats (rebounds, blocks) compares to skilled, undersized bigs.** This is a very startling suite of statistics for a possibly lottery pick. The only explanation is that he hasn’t been playing basketball very long, **which at some point is not a positive. He’s going to have to learn basic fundamentals to contribute, and will need considerable time in the D-league**. Any team that drafts him will have to be patient, but also calibrate the necessity of investing so much in someone who will already be 21 by their first NBA game. I have about 40+ guys above Jones on my board, and as a second rounder I’m not sure he’s worth it. Why invest so many resources when by the time he’s developed he’ll likely be on another team?


Thanks for reading.

Kai Jones is straight up a second round pick that will somehow wind up in the lottery.

[PhantomDashCam]

Here’s my hot take on Kai Jones. Feel free to bookmark it, quote it etc.
My only caveat being a significant injury, which has at times derailed many a promising career:

I’m not sure Kai will ever be a superstar. I’ve said this before.
I am confident in this though -

He’ll probably spend the majority of his rookie year in the g-league with his performances perhaps middling at first and then extremely encouraging by the end of that seasons’ completion.
He’ll get some time in the majors with a workable off-season blueprint for continued skill development and an NBA strength and conditioning program focused primarily on developing his core.

He’ll come in to his second season with hype around his improvement and talk of him taking a giant leap that year (which may not happen straight away.)

Kai Jones will then become an NBA starter before the end of his second season.

What he does and becomes after that will be fun to watch…(unless we are playing against him). :lol

[Degoat]

Here’s my hot take on Kai Jones. Feel free to bookmark it, quote it etc.
My only caveat being a significant injury, which has at times derailed many a promising career:

I’m not sure Kai will ever be a superstar. I’ve said this before.
I am confident in this though -

He’ll probably spend the majority of his rookie year in the g-league with his performances perhaps middling at first and then extremely encouraging by the end of that seasons’ completion.
He’ll get some time in the majors with a workable off-season blueprint for continued skill development and an NBA strength and conditioning program focused primarily on developing his core.

He’ll come in to his second season with hype around his improvement and talk of him taking a giant leap that year (which may not happen straight away.)

Kai Jones will then become an NBA starter before the end of his second season.

What he does and becomes after that will be fun to watch…(unless we are playing against him). :lol

I agree with you! I see Kai Jones having a similar path as Christian Wood tbh lots of talent just needs to find a team that develops him and is patient with him. This draft is so full of talent I can’t wait for the draft to see what the spurs end up going with.

[Dejounte]

Here’s my hot take on Kai Jones. Feel free to bookmark it, quote it etc.
My only caveat being a significant injury, which has at times derailed many a promising career:

I’m not sure Kai will ever be a superstar. I’ve said this before.
I am confident in this though -

He’ll probably spend the majority of his rookie year in the g-league with his performances perhaps middling at first and then extremely encouraging by the end of that seasons’ completion.
He’ll get some time in the majors with a workable off-season blueprint for continued skill development and an NBA strength and conditioning program focused primarily on developing his core.

He’ll come in to his second season with hype around his improvement and talk of him taking a giant leap that year (which may not happen straight away.)

Kai Jones will then become an NBA starter before the end of his second season.

What he does and becomes after that will be fun to watch…(unless we are playing against him). :lol

umm this is far from a “hot take” given the number of fans who want Kai

it’s weird. I enjoyed your takes during the season after games but this draft season? :lmao

the draft can’t come soon enough

[Em-City]

perhaps he does now...he's 18 and never really worked his outside shot because he's so effing smooth in the paint. I'm telling you he's the closest thing to Timmay at his age than anyone we've seen lately, he's Embiid smooth without the weight.

would didnt care if Timmay hit 3s so much because he was so dominant down low. now hear me completely...he's not Duncan. but he could be the new era Duncan that starts going out to the 3 pt line moreso than Tim ever did. but he has the midrange and postmoves that give you a reminder of Tim's impact on the game.

I was talking about his defense.. i no concerns about him hitting the 3

[Mr. Body]

Here’s my hot take on Kai Jones. Feel free to bookmark it, quote it etc.
My only caveat being a significant injury, which has at times derailed many a promising career:

I’m not sure Kai will ever be a superstar. I’ve said this before.
I am confident in this though -

He’ll probably spend the majority of his rookie year in the g-league with his performances perhaps middling at first and then extremely encouraging by the end of that seasons’ completion.
He’ll get some time in the majors with a workable off-season blueprint for continued skill development and an NBA strength and conditioning program focused primarily on developing his core.

He’ll come in to his second season with hype around his improvement and talk of him taking a giant leap that year (which may not happen straight away.)

Kai Jones will then become an NBA starter before the end of his second season.

What he does and becomes after that will be fun to watch…(unless we are playing against him). :lol

There is absolutely no way he becomes a starter in his second year. He didn't even become a starter his second year of college. Is he getting overrated here because he played in Austin? Is that the reason? Because I don't get it.

[PhantomDashCam]

I agree with you! I see Kai Jones having a similar path as Christian Wood tbh lots of talent just needs to find a team that develops him and is patient with him. This draft is so full of talent I can’t wait for the draft to see what the spurs end up going with.

Exciting times my man.

Highly recommend watching Kais’ Hornets’ interview (if haven’t already).
https://www.nba.com/hornets/video/teams/hornets/2021/07/18/381295/1626626629543-210718-kaijones-381295

This is not your average 20 yo prospect.

FWIW, you get the sense Moses Moody loves him, calling him “my guy” (Pacers interview), from working out all summer.

[Ditty]

Sengun doesn’t know English?

[buttsR4rebounding]

Yeah nobody is paying Jak $15 million a year. You don’t pay back up big man/ fringe starters that kinda money. Especially when he can’t shoot the ball and kills your spacing and probably plays 25 minutes a game. You start paying players like Jak that kinda money and you will be in the lottery really fast.

I believe Poeltl will build on his FT improvement and start taking more short jumpers. I expect he will have become a 14 pt 10 rebound, 2 block center. That will get him 15 million.

[Dejounte]

https://youtu.be/7cA7JqnNnJQ

44% on off the dribble shots

great channel, btw. Subscribe!

[BackHome]

Poodle can and should increase his free throw percentage and what he needs to work on is going to the rim hard ie. dunking yeah stop being soft. The second he should be working with a team and practicing back door cuts/easy dunks. After he learns and shows that then he can work on a hook shot or a bank shot like Timmy did so well early in his career

[BackHome]

Sengun doesn’t know English?

I would rather the player understand "The Beautiful Game of Basketball" then any other language

[offset formation]

There is absolutely no way he becomes a starter in his second year. He didn't even become a starter his second year of college. Is he getting overrated here because he played in Austin? Is that the reason? Because I don't get it.

it's the near unparalleled athleticism he has that slaps ppl upside their head. but the rest just isn't there...yet. not sure it ever does

[objective]

I'm conflicted over Kai Jones.

On the one hand he started playing late because he's from the islands so the could still be a lot more upside with experience.

But how is he still so raw after 2 years? If he was coming out as a freshman, then fine, but he still is just a raw prospect. And pandemic seasons screwing things up but come on

How does he get relatively few blocks? Shouldn't a super athlete potential guy get at least a block per game as a sophomore? But then I think about all the bigs Texas has and the poor rep for coaching they get sometimes.

Just don't know which way to go on him

[Degoat]

Kai might be a work in progress but you can’t deny the potential he has… people that point out that he wasn’t a starter for the Longhorns, Devin Booker wasn’t a starter for Kentucky either and he was a pretty damn good pick by the suns years ago lol Kai isn’t at the top of my list but I wouldn’t be mad with the pick if we took him

[Mr. Body]

Kai might be a work in progress but you can’t deny the potential he has… people that point out that he wasn’t a starter for the Longhorns, Devin Booker wasn’t a starter for Kentucky either and he was a pretty damn good pick by the suns years ago lol Kai isn’t at the top of my list but I wouldn’t be mad with the pick if we took him

Kai Jones doesn't have any potential. Guys with his metrics never get any good. I hope he gets drafted and makes some money, but not by the Spurs.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Kai might be a work in progress but you can’t deny the potential he has… people that point out that he wasn’t a starter for the Longhorns, Devin Booker wasn’t a starter for Kentucky either and he was a pretty damn good pick by the suns years ago lol Kai isn’t at the top of my list but I wouldn’t be mad with the pick if we took him

Booker came out after being Freshman of the Year in the SEC. Pretty sure he would have started as a sophomore. That’s pretty damning if that’s your best Comp. I will give out a cheer if some dumbass GM picks him before 12.

[Degoat]

Booker came out after being Freshman of the Year in the SEC. Pretty sure he would have started as a sophomore. That’s pretty damning if that’s your best Comp. I will give out a cheer if some dumbass GM picks him before 12.

I just think it’s Naive to rule him out is all, Spurs fans should know better than anyone how important the 6th man can be… to say a guy who’s 6ft 11 and can move the way he does and not be intrigued is holding onto some kind of bias against him tbh lol

[buttsR4rebounding]

I just think it’s Naive to rule him out is all, Spurs fans should know better than anyone how important the 6th man can be… to say a guy who’s 6ft 11 and can move the way he does and not be intrigued is holding onto some kind of bias against him tbh lol

He is so raw that it will be into his 2nd contract before he puts it together. I see him being taken by a team like OKC with multiple picks.

[PhantomDashCam]

umm this is far from a “hot take” given the number of fans who want Kai

it’s weird. I enjoyed your takes during the season after games but this draft season? :lmao

the draft can’t come soon enough

You only have to read some of the comments post mine on how many people are against the Kai pick or don’t see a development pathway for him from his initial selection…

I believe it’s important to have differing opinions on prospects, even dissenting ones, if to only challenge the rhetoric or ideological habituation we may find ourselves in from time to time.

The way Kai talks about the game and his pathway to moderate success so far fascinates me. Although he’s raw, I think he’s further along than some critics give him credit for.

There honestly isn’t 5 other guys I would take in this draft ahead of him irrespective of prior accomplishments and reliable, project-able outcomes.

I’ll be excited and root for whoever we draft.
I unequivocally trust the Spurs FO in this department.

If it isn’t Kai and he is available, it’s most likely for the reasons you and others have cited.
If we do though, it would mean the see something in this kid that belies his stats and prior accolades to this point in his career.

He said in the Hornets interview, he had two more workouts scheduled. I would hope, if he hasn’t yet, that one would be with the Spurs.

[KobesAchilles]

This thread isn’t about Jak so I’m not going to add on to my already clear opinion of him but I would be glad to draft a big man that rim runs for us. Sengun looks to me like a less athletic Pau Gasol but today’s game is so simple that literally just running hard to the rim can get you 10 points a game. And Sengun does that really well. If he gets a jumper or you think he can get one then you draft him and trade the farm to do so. Murray and the 12 pick to Golden St for #7.

[rankingtear]

Sengun doesn’t know English?

With a 68 TS% why would he need to.

[exstatic]

Kai might be a work in progress but you can’t deny the potential he has… people that point out that he wasn’t a starter for the Longhorns, Devin Booker wasn’t a starter for Kentucky either and he was a pretty damn good pick by the suns years ago lol Kai isn’t at the top of my list but I wouldn’t be mad with the pick if we took him

Calipari gets far better recruits than TX. UK had 6 players drafted that year. That’s why Booker didn’t start.

[duncan2150]

I'm not high on Kai Jones and i could be totally wrong.

I think he could develop into a good starter, i don't see the star potential but he has the mobility, can shoot and block some shots. I don't like the fact that he is not a good rebounder, the Post defense is a also a question.

I may prefer Isaiah Jackson, he is under the radar but as a role player i like him more with his shot blocking ability.

[Dejounte]

Wasserman reported that Duarte had a terrible workout for a team and came in out of shape according to his sources. Says the team complained that he didnt go to the combine.

Either he’s trying to tank his value or bad decisions are being made. I’m leaning towards the former since it lines up with what I’ve heard and read about his work ethic. Getting spicy up in here…

sounds to me he’s trying to pull a Vassell…

[The Truth #6]

Wasserman reported that Duarte had a terrible workout for a team and came in out of shape according to his sources. Says the team complained that he didnt go to the combine.

Either he’s trying to tank his value or bad decisions are being made. I’m leaning towards the former since it lines up with what I’ve heard and read about his work ethic. Getting spicy up in here…

sounds to me he’s trying to pull a Vassell…

Let the games(manship) begin!

I’d love to hear what team said that.

[The Truth #6]

It’s hard for me to separate Kai from UT’s long history of not developing players, or at least not producing much quality NBA talent. Part of me blames Austin. Some football players have a hard transition to the NFL as well, but that’s my uninformed 10,000 foot analysis.

With Kai, Jherico, and Brown, they all three were cramming up the court together it seems. I would avoid Kai with any lottery pick. There isn’t enough to go on, and too much is negative. But to flip it around, because the situation with all three seems so poorly managed, there is an argument that the other two might have value way later in the draft. I mean, the other two are freak athletes. It would be a Eubanks path to a career. But if you could pick up Brown in the second round or Jherico undrafted? Maybe something smaller to work with. But its not really what we need on the Spurs. On the Toros, maybe.

So overall, I say pass on all of them, especially if we don’t get someone who projects as a good 3 point shooter in the first round.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

You only have to read some of the comments post mine on how many people are against the Kai pick or don’t see a development pathway for him from his initial selection…

I believe it’s important to have differing opinions on prospects, even dissenting ones, if to only challenge the rhetoric or ideological habituation we may find ourselves in from time to time.

The way Kai talks about the game and his pathway to moderate success so far fascinates me. Although he’s raw, I think he’s further along than some critics give him credit for.

There honestly isn’t 5 other guys I would take in this draft ahead of him irrespective of prior accomplishments and reliable, project-able outcomes.

I’ll be excited and root for whoever we draft.
I unequivocally trust the Spurs FO in this department.

If it isn’t Kai and he is available, it’s most likely for the reasons you and others have cited.
If we do though, it would mean the see something in this kid that belies his stats and prior accolades to this point in his career.

He said in the Hornets interview, he had two more workouts scheduled. I would hope, if he hasn’t yet, that one would be with the Spurs.

I hope Spurs work out and pick him too. He has such calm, humble and yet confident demeanor, like Duncan. Hard to imagine this kind of people won't keep progressing. His 3 point shot and fast- break alone will enable him to play in the 2nd half of the season.

[John B]

I hope Spurs work out and pick him too. He has such calm, humble and yet confident demeanor, like Duncan. Hard to imagine this kind of people won't keep progressing. His 3 point shot and fast- break alone will enable him to play in the 2nd half of the season.

There’s a lot to be excited about Kai but not at 12th. He’s still very raw and a 2-3 years project, but could come out as a Christian Wood. And right now there are picks that can contribute immediately, Wagner, Sengun, Johnson, Duarte, Moody.

[duncan2150]

Wasserman reported that Duarte had a terrible workout for a team and came in out of shape according to his sources. Says the team complained that he didnt go to the combine.

Either he’s trying to tank his value or bad decisions are being made. I’m leaning towards the former since it lines up with what I’ve heard and read about his work ethic. Getting spicy up in here…

sounds to me he’s trying to pull a Vassell…

having a bad workout is one thing but coming out of shape is another. But that could be a strategy as we heard about a promise for Duarte a few weeks ago.

Still i don't tjink he is a target for the Spurs at 12.

[rankingtear]

- Moody is suprisingly slower and less athletic than i thought that explains the drop in mocks.
- Garuba played real well offensively without shooting it.
- Giddey is good positionally on defense but that t-rex arms prevent him from making plays on that end.

- Wasserman said giddey wont get past us at 12.

Keon still my guy and Garuba.

new SI mock with some intel :

https://www.si.com/nba/2021/07/20/nba-mock-draft-cade-cunningham-evan-mobley-jalen-green

[PrimeMinister]

I’ll definitely agree that Kai in the way he talks about the game and discusses his drive to improve as a player, it’s impressive. By all accounts he is a hard worker and puts in the time to back up what he says.

Im concerned under Shaka, seeing how the Longhorns played, seeing how another prospect went into the season with lofty expectations and looked completely lost. I’m concerned Kai showed some of the same tendencies and struggles to contribute at all at times. I’m concerned when he talks about working on his jump shot and his mechanics at his pro day are fundamentally screwed, and how many bad habits have been drilled into him that will have to be unlearned.

If Kai comes to San Antonio, I won’t worry because it means in the interviews and workouts, they’ve identified he can overcome these concerns or that his potential strengths are strong enough they won’t matter.

He has an obvious analogue positionally in Sengun in draft range and position. It’s almost a philosophical conversation at that point of raw tools and potential based on athleticism vs. the refined scoring and fundamentals of Sengun. I’ll gamble on the 18 year old Turkish MVP to continue building some strength and explosiveness like he has over the last year or so before I put my lottery pick down on the raw project to unlearn his bad habits and build good ones. But there’s very few picks to make at 12 that will leave me disappointed on draft night.

[rjv]

i was pretty impressed with how garuba 1) went after rebounds and 2) moved without the ball. his defense was pretty solid as well. he is definitely active.

[PrimeMinister]

- Moody is suprisingly slower and less athletic than i thought that explains the drop in mocks.
- Garuba played real well offensively without shooting it.
- Giddey is good positionally on defense but that t-rex arms prevent him from making plays on that end.

- Wasserman said giddey wont get past us at 12.

Keon still my guy and Garuba.

new SI mock with some intel :

https://www.si.com/nba/2021/07/20/nba-mock-draft-cade-cunningham-evan-mobley-jalen-green

Keldon gets a little bit of burn in the national spotlight and SI is dubbing him a clear starting caliber piece and basically a building block.

spurs fans should note what kind of electric talent and personality they have here. Guy is going to be a fast riser in the game and could be huge for this franchise.

[PrimeMinister]

i was pretty impressed with how garuba 1) went after rebounds and 2) moved without the ball. his defense was pretty solid as well. he is definitely active.

he is starting to look like a sneaky spurs pick to me

[Dejounte]

IMO, got to be careful with prospects who talk about they want to improve and how they’re a hard worker. These are empty words at the end of the day. What’s more impressive is if they talk about how they read the game or how their teammates and coaches perceive them.

[Dejounte]

i was pretty impressed with how garuba 1) went after rebounds and 2) moved without the ball. his defense was pretty solid as well. he is definitely active.


he is starting to look like a sneaky spurs pick to me

seriously not seeing what people are saying here. Doesn’t look at all like a lottery talent. Late first round, sure.

[Mr. Body]

seriously not seeing what people are saying here. Doesn’t look at all like a lottery talent. Late first round, sure.

Same. Some might see him as Clint Capela, a small ball 5. Unsure about that. More to the point, I don't see how he fits the roster.

[Mr. Body]

IMO, got to be careful with prospects who talk about they want to improve and how they’re a hard worker. These are empty words at the end of the day. What’s more impressive is if they talk about how they read the game or how their teammates and coaches perceive them.

They're like job interviews, almost useless in discovering vital things about players. How they talk about the game is another matter. I liked how Giddey talked about his mistakes and improvements, for example. He really showed an intelligence and understanding for 18 years old.

[mo7888]

seriously not seeing what people are saying here. Doesn’t look at all like a lottery talent. Late first round, sure.

I think they are projecting Chip's ability to make him a reliable outside shooter to go with his defensive talent. I'm not that brave...I have him at #19 on my BB.

[PrimeMinister]

seriously not seeing what people are saying here. Doesn’t look at all like a lottery talent. Late first round, sure.

on my own personal big board I’d put him in the 25-30 range but I can see a team in the late lottery, teens, or early 20s reaching just based on his tools and instincts.

ive talked philosophically about where 5s fit in today’s game a bit over the last year. But a mobile dude with long arms has a niche and should be playable in most situations and match ups. The raw offense is completely secondary to the role he would play.

He’s not coming to San Antonio but I see qualities in his game that historically would make him a reach candidate for the spurs. picking in the lottery changes the dynamic quite a bit.

[Dex]

It’s hard for me to separate Kai from UT’s long history of not developing players, or at least not producing much quality NBA talent. Part of me blames Austin. Some football players have a hard transition to the NFL as well, but that’s my uninformed 10,000 foot analysis.


UT has had plenty of success stories. In the last 20-ish years, there is Chris Mihm, Maurice Evans, TJ Ford, LaMarcus Aldridge, PJ Tucker, Kevin Durant, DJ Augustin, Avery Bradley, Tristan Thompson, Cory Joseph, Myles Turner, Jarrett Allen, etc.

Not all of those guys are star players, but most went on to have decent-to-great careers and there is a handful of championships between them.

Obviously there is a fair share of misses in there as well (cough BAMBA cough) but I'm not sure you can blame it particularly on UT, but rather on the fact that most guys coming out of UT only play for a year or two before they apply for the draft.

[SAGirl]

Great analysis of Kai:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/onl8vn/oc_kai_jones_is_a_project_not_worth_taking/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

[OC] Kai Jones Is A Project Not Worth Taking


I’ve written 3 posts in the past few weeks -- the first advocating against Davion Mitchell, and the next in favor of Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba. I was often clear in the comments that I’m not dogmatic about my rankings. If Sengun/Garuba go 10 spots lower or Davion Mitchell 20+ spots higher than I think, it’s really no skin off my back. There are no certainties in the draft, and you shouldn’t get too worked up about anything.


I write this to say that I do not feel this way about Kai Jones. **Jones across many mocks is pegged to go in the lottery/mid-first, and I think this would be a disaster.** Jones was a liability as a sophomore, and would need essentially unprecedented growth to warrant a selection that high. I have him as a second rounder, and even then it is difficult to value the pick as he won't receive the playing time he needs to develop.


I will first cover Jones’ overall game. I will then lay out his most direct college statistical comparisons. I will end by comparing his college production to similarly styled current NBA bigs.


**Jones’ Game**


First, the physicals:


||Jones|Average NBA Center|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Height|6'10|6'10|
|Reach|9'2.5|9'2|
|Weight|221|250|
|Wingspan|7'1.75|7'3.5|


Jones has typical measurements for an NBA big man, with only shorter arms and a calorie deficit. But, with the league getting smaller, this is an excellent combine showing.


He did not test athletically, but he’s clearly a superior athlete. He glides to the rim effortlessly for jams, and projects to have some [impressive transition finishes](https://streamable.com/sawdba). Jones also moves well side to side, evidenced by this [swat of Cade Cunningham](https://streamable.com/888q2f) (who himself was a pretty paltry and uncreative interior scorer but that’s for another post). In terms of god given gifts, Jones is big, with the high end athleticism needed to succeed at the next level.


In terms of production, he’s an advanced finisher, putting home 75% of rim attempts ([hoopmath](http://hoop-math.com/Texas2021.php)). He finished the season with a 65 TS%, which would be even higher if he did not enjoy the mid-range J so much. Moreover, these were not often easy lobs. On the brilliantly constructed Texas basketball team, Jones played the 5 next to Greg Brown, or the 4 next to old school big Jericho Sims (this miserable hydra was saved by a talented triumvirate of upperclassman guard play). Adapting to this spacing, Jones often worked from the perimeter, demonstrating the ability to [put the ball on the floor](https://streamable.com/a5qin2), and [finish with grace](https://streamable.com/1zamjt).


It’s easy to see the flashes of an inside out defender with a somewhat high offensive acumen. He also has only been playing basketball for 5 or 6 years, giving hope for some untapped talent. In general, he is raw, but has great size, athleticism, and has shown flashes of talent that has convinced many he is a lottery pick.


**My Issues**


My largest issue with Jones is that he’s discussed as if he is a limitless 18 year old. He’s a 20.5 year old sophomore who started one game behind two generally unimpressive bigs (I can’t stress how not-good Greg Brown is at basketball). If Jones goes in the lottery, **he will be the first non-freshman since Dion Waiters to play under 25 minutes and still be drafted top 14.** Usually, when guys are in a class of their own, it can be really good or really bad. When you’re in a class of two with Dion Waiters, well it’s not great.


**Even in those limited minutes, he was also terribly unproductive**. He almost always shared the floor with Brown or Sims which could depress his block/rebound numbers, but neither of those guys are exactly Hakeem Olajuwon let alone Joel Pryzbilla. **To demonstrate just how perilous his college company is, below are some notable forwards and centers who in their sophomore year charted similar BLK/REB rates to Kai Jones**. I’ve included those player’s assist/turnover rates to paint a picture of their overall production, in addition to made three point field goals. These stats are somewhat cherry-picked (as all are), but should articulate the kind of role Jones will ostensibly play at the next level -- **floor spacer, rebounder, shot blocker, and facilitator**. (I generally use rates as Jones played so little, and it's simply a better metric).


​


|Player|3PT FGs|3PT%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Ben Bentil|52|33%|12.4|3.1|8|9.3|
|Luke Kornet|50|40%|9.8|5.5|10.9|14.6|
|Tyler Lydon|49|39%|13.7|4.7|10.8|13.6|
|Killian Tillie|45|48%|12.9|4.2|11.5|14.1|
|Dylan Windler|37|37%|12.5|3.3|9.6|12.5|
|**Kai Jones**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**|**4.2**|**5.4**|** 16.8**|


Jones rebounded and blocked shots on comparable levels to a group of under-athletic or undersized 4s and 5s. **This is a guy with great measurements for a center and uber athleticism, yet had a worse block rate than Tyler Lydon.** Not only that, but he made dramatically fewer three pointers than this crop, with by far the worst AST% and highest TO rate. There’s a reason he could not get minutes over Brown and Sims -- he is not good at basketball.


To be clear, this is not simply statistics. This is all readily available in the film:


I’m not going to linger on basic IQ mistakes that every college player makes ([like this](https://streamable.com/gm4bhs) [or this](https://streamable.com/rq8xkl)), but some are day 1 basketball rules such as [do not immediately start dribbling upcourt when you get a rebound](https://streamable.com/pbv44s). There’s also instances of not really understanding [the dimensions of the floor](https://streamable.com/h56wpo), and just general clumsiness[ 1](https://streamable.com/4xeg8a), [2](https://streamable.com/oi3g6d), [3](https://streamable.com/6qsqbt).


This is young basketball stuff, and his basketball years are still quite green. The problem is that he is physically a man, but lacks control over his body. We give 18 year olds a break because they are still developing. It is hard to gives Jones the same leash.


Quite of this clumsiness could of course be salvaged by a high motor, which he totally lacks. Here is the [quintessential Kai Jones play](https://streamable.com/xbkxg1) \-- **he gives up position to go for a steal, falls to the ground, and then just kinda stops playing basketball.** These are often physical plays, but he routinely shows zero fight and less strength as he routinely gets wiped out of post position [1](https://streamable.com/tbcfoj) [2](https://streamable.com/9x01sk) [3](https://streamable.com/tmnjlw) [4](https://streamable.com/jjmndo) [5](https://streamable.com/lna6c1) [6](https://streamable.com/20r0wb). You simply can't explain someone like Jones contributing like Killian Tillie on defense unless they simply don't play hard. These clips are also key to anyone waving away his low rebound/block figures due to playing with other bigs - **they were on the floor because Jones was so hopeless guarding the post or defending the rim.**


**Current NBA Players College Production**


Here I’ve tallied a list of 4/5s to whom Jones would likely play a similar role -- generally thinner bigs with perimeter skills and flexible defense -- and I've slapped together their college numbers upon being drafted (besides Larry Nance) to compare. These are absolutely not perfect comps, but more aim for the role Jones might play in the NBA (sorted by PTS/40):


​


|Player|Age|PTS/40|3PT FGs|3Pt%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|John Collins|19.7|28.8|1|0|21.1|6.6|4.5|11.1|
|Kelly Olynyk|22.1|27|9|30%|17.4|5.1|15.1|15.4|
|Zach Collins|19.6|23.2|10|47%|18.4|9.8|4.4|17.8|
|Mike Muscala|20|21.5|4|36%|15.5|8.1|12.2|11.7|
|Lauri Markkannen|20.1|20.2|69|42%|14|1.8|5.6|8.1|
|Jaren Jackson Jr.|18.7|20|38|39%|15|14.3|9.3|17.4|
|Christian Wood|19.8|19.3|25|28%|17|8.2|9.2|14.7|
|Chris Boucher|23.5|18.7|39|34%|16.5|11.8|2.9|10.5|
|Nic Claxton|20.5|16.4|18|28%|14.9|8|12.2|14.7|
|**Kai Jones**|**20.5**|**15.5**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**| **4.2**|**5.4**|**16.8**|
|Larry Nance|20.5|13.3|10|34%|14.7|2.7|9.8|14.7|


​


I think these numbers are frankly self-explanatory, but **the long and short of it is that Kelly Olynyk was a better college rebounder and shot blocker than Kai Jones.** Digging a bit deeper, you also find here rail thin players like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Collins (who both played next to bigs in college) who out rebounded Jones, while doubling and tripling his block rate at younger ages. Christian Wood, a nominal comp with a questionable defensive role in the NBA, blocked shots at 2x the rate and was a far better rebounder, on top of making more threes and better facilitating. The only player here who Jones remotely resembles is Larry Nance Jr., who is 2.5 inches shorter and quite a bit more skilled at the same age (he also was a late first rounder 2 years after putting up those numbers). Somehow, Lauri Markkanen, who didn't dribble in college, touted a better assist rate (and better rebounding). It's difficult to stress how far behind this cohort he is at the point of being drafted.


In conclusion, **Jones skill level compares to extremely athletic but unskilled bigs, while his athletic stats (rebounds, blocks) compares to skilled, undersized bigs.** This is a very startling suite of statistics for a possibly lottery pick. The only explanation is that he hasn’t been playing basketball very long, **which at some point is not a positive. He’s going to have to learn basic fundamentals to contribute, and will need considerable time in the D-league**. Any team that drafts him will have to be patient, but also calibrate the necessity of investing so much in someone who will already be 21 by their first NBA game. I have about 40+ guys above Jones on my board, and as a second rounder I’m not sure he’s worth it. Why invest so many resources when by the time he’s developed he’ll likely be on another team?


Thanks for reading.

Thats damning fir Jones. Even if he pans out he needs a long time to develop. Hardly worth it for a lottery team that needs talent to help the team rise fr the basement sooner rather than later. He’s worth the gamble in the second round, but too raw for the lottery. After seeing the Spurs sink 2 years into Samanic without even knowing what he will be for sure I don’t have the stomach got a guy that’s 2 years away from being 2 years away again.

[GAustex]

Greg Brown there in the second round? Might want to roll the bones on that one

[Dejounte]

Trendon Watford and Kai Jones (cue the fanboys) both posted they’re in the Spurs facility.

[SAGirl]

Trendon Watford and Kai Jones (cue the fanboys) both posted they’re in the Spurs facility.
Spicy tip. Good that they are trying out the bigs for comparison sake

[R. DeMurre]

I think they are projecting Chip's ability to make him a reliable outside shooter to go with his defensive talent. I'm not that brave...I have him at #19 on my BB.

I think Chip is legit, but I wonder sometimes at people who cast him as some sort of miracle worker... The Spurs as a team were 24th in the league in 3ptFG% last season, and 30th in 3ptFGA. So their 3pt% is one of the worst despite also being one of the most selective. They were 24th in 2pt% and 10th in FT%.

[SAGirl]

This thread isn’t about Jak so I’m not going to add on to my already clear opinion of him but I would be glad to draft a big man that rim runs for us. Sengun looks to me like a less athletic Pau Gasol but today’s game is so simple that literally just running hard to the rim can get you 10 points a game. And Sengun does that really well. If he gets a jumper or you think he can get one then you draft him and trade the farm to do so. Murray and the 12 pick to Golden St for #7.

ja ja ja
Sengun is a less athletic Pau Gasol???
Pop literally:
https://clutchpoints.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ExcellentRepulsiveImperialeagle-size_restricted.gif

[Mr. Body]

Sengun is a more athletic version of Pau Gasol. But also not really Pau Gasol.

[SAGirl]

I think Chip is legit, but I wonder sometimes at people who cast him as some sort of miracle worker... The Spurs as a team were 24th in the league in 3ptFG% last season, and 30th in 3ptFGA. So their 3pt% is one of the worst despite also being one of the most selective. They were 24th in 2pt% and 10th in FT%.
And the biggest contribution toward those threes were from players that Chip had nothing to do with fixing their shots: Mills and Gay. I think White already could shoot well before he was drafted. When you look at the other guys who needed their shot fixed the results are underwhelming and it’s always up to the player to do the job of fixing it.

[SpursDynasty85]

- Moody is suprisingly slower and less athletic than i thought that explains the drop in mocks.
- Garuba played real well offensively without shooting it.
- Giddey is good positionally on defense but that t-rex arms prevent him from making plays on that end.

- Wasserman said giddey wont get past us at 12.

Keon still my guy and Garuba.

new SI mock with some intel :

https://www.si.com/nba/2021/07/20/nba-mock-draft-cade-cunningham-evan-mobley-jalen-green

I would be surprised if they can pass on Moody if he falls to us considering Pop's pension for small ball and our unlikely need for a center despite Sengun a possibility here too. If they pick Sengun over Moody I will be happy because they believe Sengun could be a star but I wouldn't be surprised if they chose Moody because he would be a good fit next to Johnson for a small ball lineup. Moody's upside imo is for his defense. His length and strength will help him excel at an Ariza type role.

In Conclusion, My order of likely picks for SA would be Wagner then (Moody/Sengun/Bouknight)(Tie) and then others like Duarte/Giddey/Kai Jones, Jalen Johnson.

[SAGirl]

Sengun is a more athletic version of Pau Gasol. But also not really Pau Gasol.
Would you say he’s more inclined to score? Pau struck me as a pass first big but I only got to see him play late in his career anyways. Marc Gasol also struck me similarly. MVPJokic is pass first in his mind but he’s had to be a lot more aggressive looking to score when his team needs it. He has that dog in him. I think Sengun does too.

[rjv]

I think Chip is legit, but I wonder sometimes at people who cast him as some sort of miracle worker... The Spurs as a team were 24th in the league in 3ptFG% last season, and 30th in 3ptFGA. So their 3pt% is one of the worst despite also being one of the most selective. They were 24th in 2pt% and 10th in FT%.

demar is unfixable, murray's shot has come along way since his 1st year (and i'm including his two-point attempts), and keldon's three-pointers seem to be coming along as well. i'm not going to include poeltl in regards to outside shooting but his FTs did get better towards the end of the season. as to mills, his mid-season slump had something to do with that low shooting percentage. he was really jacking up a high volume and missing a large volume there for a while.

[rankingtear]

1417517038873026565

1417544668104036352

[Dejounte]

1417517038873026565

1417544668104036352

are they all going to New York or is this going to be another at home thing like last year. I wonder

[R. DeMurre]

Would you say he’s more inclined to score? Pau struck me as a pass first big but I only got to see him play late in his career anyways. Marc Gasol also struck me similarly. MVPJokic is pass first in his mind but he’s had to be a lot more aggressive looking to score when his team needs it. He has that dog in him. I think Sengun does too.


The thing about Jokic that makes him so great is that I don't think he has what could be called a bias when it comes to choices-- he's a brilliant decision maker, and is just as likely to shoot as he is to pass, just as likely to drive as he is to spot up. Sengun obviously has Jokic on his mind, as he has referenced him many times in interviews and also dramatically increased his own assist numbers in Turkey as his season progressed and he received more defensive attention. Jokic is a funny topic for me because he's literally the greatest big man passer I've ever seen, but now the label of a "Jokic type" player gets thrown around with regularity in draft season, as if it's some sort of trait that might be easy to replicate!

[SAGirl]

Wasserman reported that Duarte had a terrible workout for a team and came in out of shape according to his sources. Says the team complained that he didnt go to the combine.

Either he’s trying to tank his value or bad decisions are being made. I’m leaning towards the former since it lines up with what I’ve heard and read about his work ethic. Getting spicy up in here…

sounds to me he’s trying to pull a Vassell…
It doesn’t make sense bc Vassell was ranked high the past draft. Due to his age and defense he wasn’t going to drop dramatically much further than he did. Duarte with his old age is playing with fire assuming he’ll go in the lottery without competing hard for it. Maybe he does but that’s not a sure thing at all.

[ginobilized]

Several mocks have the Spurs taking Kispert. I truly hope that is not the case. It certainly doesn't feel quite right.
Maybe it's just that he looks horrible in the headband, but, I'm not seeing him as worthy of pick 12.

Sengun, Wagner (no chance of happening), Moody, Bouknight, Giddey, Duarte and Garuba are all much higher in my mind.

Is there a strong argument to be made for Kispert?

[rjv]

Several mocks have the Spurs taking Kispert. I truly hope that is not the case. It certainly doesn't feel quite right.
Maybe it's just that he looks horrible in the headband, but, I'm not seeing him as worthy of pick 12.

Sengun, Wagner (no chance of happening), Moody, Bouknight, Giddey, Duarte and Garuba are all much higher in my mind.

Is there a strong argument to be made for Kispert?

i don't know about a strong argument but there is certainly a argument that can be made. he can shoot and his defense is solid enough. i don't think it's a reach to argue that kipsert can be a solid role player and that's not a terrible thing to find with the 12th pick.

[Kurik]

I’m fine with Kispert on a trade down, very disappointed if he’s drafted at 12.

[The Truth #6]

The only way I imagine picking Kispert is if they are trading for Simmons and they want to surround him with an ace three point shooter with no questions about his shooting, but even then...

[Mr. Body]

Would you say he’s more inclined to score? Pau struck me as a pass first big but I only got to see him play late in his career anyways. Marc Gasol also struck me similarly. MVPJokic is pass first in his mind but he’s had to be a lot more aggressive looking to score when his team needs it. He has that dog in him. I think Sengun does too.

No, I think Pau was a traditional back to the basket post who could pass out very well. He also had a nice midrange game. I think Sengun's posts look different and he doesn't have the midrange. Pau also had a lot of lower body strength. Sengun seems more mobile and moves less like a traditional center.

[The Truth #6]

Sengun gets tagged for being undersized, but could be a great small ball 5 if his shot develops. And playing small is obviously more common now. Because pretty much no team can compete with joker or embiid straight up, teams are going small as a way to combat that. This isn’t a new revelation but during the draft process evaluators focus so much on measurables that they forget what is functional versus theoretical. Just my opinion.

Like, Kai may check a lot of boxes, but he doesn’t check “knows how to play basketball”. These things aren’t all equal. Knowing how to play basketball is not equal to “plus wingspan”, for example.

[Mr. Body]

Several mocks have the Spurs taking Kispert. I truly hope that is not the case. It certainly doesn't feel quite right.
Maybe it's just that he looks horrible in the headband, but, I'm not seeing him as worthy of pick 12.

Sengun, Wagner (no chance of happening), Moody, Bouknight, Giddey, Duarte and Garuba are all much higher in my mind.

Is there a strong argument to be made for Kispert?

Kispert isn't really a one-dimensional shooter. He's good at other aspects of the game and is a hardnosed competitor. So I don't think he's a Davis Bertans glass-cannon type. Like, he shot over 3 fts a game, which seems pretty good for a wing shooter. As for threes, shoots at volume and without remorse, which would be a first for this current team.

I agree it's not the sexiest pick, but he's the closest to plug-in-and-play as we'd get and instantly stretch the floor at least wherever he is.

[Mr. Body]

Kispert is really good at reading defenses, making cuts, drifting and relocating along the perimeter, etc. He moves the ball well but isn't a playmaker necessarily. Apparently he had the best transition conversion rate in the entire NCAA, like, he's reeeeaaally good in transition. Not a bad defender, but more of a help/team defense guy. Would struggle with exceptional athletes/scorers (but who doesn't?), but is in every play. Like, doesn't give up.

Honestly I'd be perfectly okay with the pick. It would be smart and instantly change how the team works in some regards. Not a gaga-in-love pick, but he'd wind up a favorite because he'd legitimately be doing what we all dreamed Bertans was doing, plus a lot more of the nitty gritty stuff.

[SAGirl]

No, I think Pau was a traditional back to the basket post who could pass out very well. He also had a nice midrange game. I think Sengun's posts look different and he doesn't have the midrange. Pau also had a lot of lower body strength. Sengun seems more mobile and moves less like a traditional center.
Thanks for the reply. Like I said, I only watched Pau in his old age and that’s not a fair comparison to me. Appreciated.

[The Truth #6]

Kispert is really good at reading defenses, making cuts, drifting and relocating along the perimeter, etc. He moves the ball well but isn't a playmaker necessarily. Apparently he had the best transition conversion rate in the entire NCAA, like, he's reeeeaaally good in transition. Not a bad defender, but more of a help/team defense guy. Would struggle with exceptional athletes/scorers (but who doesn't?), but is in every play. Like, doesn't give up.

Honestly I'd be perfectly okay with the pick. It would be smart and instantly change how the team works in some regards. Not a gaga-in-love pick, but he'd wind up a favorite because he'd legitimately be doing what we all dreamed Bertans was doing, plus a lot more of the nitty gritty stuff.


I wouldn’t throw my phone at the tv if we picked him. Yeah, not my first choice but his presence would greatly help this team. And he does a little more than just shoot as you say.

People say you can get Joe Wiesenkamp (probably just butchered his spelling) in the second round, but maybe Joe is actually undervalued. Everyone needs shooters.

Extra plus: he looks like a bruise brother with the headband.

[mo7888]

Several mocks have the Spurs taking Kispert. I truly hope that is not the case. It certainly doesn't feel quite right.
Maybe it's just that he looks horrible in the headband, but, I'm not seeing him as worthy of pick 12.

Sengun, Wagner (no chance of happening), Moody, Bouknight, Giddey, Duarte and Garuba are all much higher in my mind.

Is there a strong argument to be made for Kispert?

One argument is that he has the one skill we desperately need, shooting. I look at it this way though, if we drafted him I would expect us to be making a trade or signing win now players to play with Kispert. He's more of a ready to go kind of guy and I think it would signal we are going to try and compete as opposed to a slower rebuild.

[Thomas82]

The pick should be Kai Jones. We need dynamism and potential.

Cosign!!

[Dejounte]

I swear some people just want black, tall, and athletic with no rhyme or reason and that’s enough to satisfy them :lmao

[rjv]

I wouldn’t throw my phone at the tv if we picked him. Yeah, not my first choice but his presence would greatly help this team. And he does a little more than just shoot as you say.

People say you can get Joe Wiesenkamp (probably just butchered his spelling) in the second round, but maybe Joe is actually undervalued. Everyone needs shooters.

Extra plus: he looks like a bruise brother with the headband.

olberding with a jump shot.

[bluebellmaniac]

9 Days until the Draft!

[itzsoweezee]

I swear some people just want black, tall, and athletic with no rhyme or reason and that’s enough to satisfy them :lmao

Cringe

[exstatic]

The problem with Kai Jones, for me, is that for a supposedly premier athlete, he doesn’t generate defensive events, steals and blocks. He also rebounds rather poorly. If I’m drafting a big, jumping jack project, he MUST be a rim runner AND high level shot blocker out of the box. In this draft, it would absolutely be Isaiah Jackson.

[KobesAchilles]

Would you say he’s more inclined to score? Pau struck me as a pass first big but I only got to see him play late in his career anyways. Marc Gasol also struck me similarly. MVPJokic is pass first in his mind but he’s had to be a lot more aggressive looking to score when his team needs it. He has that dog in him. I think Sengun does too.
No Pau had no problem scoring and calling his own number in the Grizzly days. As I remember he survived very well being a big man in the post who was a good passer and smart decision maker. But he wasn’t the defender that team needed and he wasn’t quite the offensive player they needed as well. Tbh they did a horrible job building around him so it’s not really his fault. They pretty much surrounded him with role players and said carry us. It’s a stupid thing to do to an all time talent let alone a player like Pau.

I remember Pau being very athletic in his early days and finishing strong and dunking with authority. Sengun does it in the Turkish league I guess but that isn’t the NBA so I’m not that impressed by it. Lots of people look athletic in those types of leagues. If we draft Sengun we would basically play him like a Pau Gasol. Bc he would need to get a midrange to survive. But hopefully Wright does a better job building a team

Thats why I said if you believe Sengun can get a reliable jumper then you trade Murray and a pick for him in a heartbeat. You need to keep White though bc he’s gonna need easy spoon fed passes to him in the beginning of his career. I don’t expect him to be Pau right away.

[JuneJive]

Kispert as a late lotto pick?

Hard pass. The upside is extremely limited.
Better choices available for pick #12.

[SpursDynasty85]

Forgot about Kispert. At first I didn't like him but the more I saw his highlights and tape, he seems like he could be a very good fit. Solid potential offensively and average defensive potential though.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I swear some people just want black, tall, and athletic with no rhyme or reason and that’s enough to satisfy them :lmao

This has nothing to do with skin color. I'm Asian. But I like Kai. Tall and athletic, yes! Humble and down to Earth personality, yes!

[The Truth #6]

olberding with a jump shot.

Definitely. Maybe some George Karl thrown in.

[Russ]

olberding with a jump shot.

Thank you sir.

Mark Olberding, aka "Ding Dong," aka "the Young Warrior."

My faith is restored. In this age of belligerence over the most pedestrian of things, great to see an old school reference. :)

[buttsR4rebounding]

The Bruise Brothers would foul out in 10 minutes in today's NBA. I wonder what they think about Load Management.

[Rip Chord]

Dinger had a j. A lot more athletic than we remember. Came out of Minnesota after his freshman year to the San Diego Sails. Too young to even sign a lease on an apartment. UM teammates Mark Landsberger, Flip Sanders, and Mychal Thompson. If he would have stayed 2 more years you could have added Gus Johnson, Ray Williams and Kevin McHale to that list. All could have played together eligibility wise. Sure take a guy with his toughness and game for sure.

[jjspur]

Kispert is really good at reading defenses, making cuts, drifting and relocating along the perimeter, etc. He moves the ball well but isn't a playmaker necessarily. Apparently he had the best transition conversion rate in the entire NCAA, like, he's reeeeaaally good in transition. Not a bad defender, but more of a help/team defense guy. Would struggle with exceptional athletes/scorers (but who doesn't?), but is in every play. Like, doesn't give up.

Honestly I'd be perfectly okay with the pick. It would be smart and instantly change how the team works in some regards. Not a gaga-in-love pick, but he'd wind up a favorite because he'd legitimately be doing what we all dreamed Bertans was doing, plus a lot more of the nitty gritty stuff.

Kispert with his shooting could easily become a second unit guy on day 1 unlike Bertans plus he's a decent defensive play again unlike Bertans.

[PhantomDashCam]

https://twitter.com/ChrisFisher247/status/1417516662039928836?s=20

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/jandersonsacbee/status/1417531772762394639?s=21

If there’s any trade down, i hope it’s this kind of trade down. 16 and 18 would be a steal, IMO. Especially with the players I like that will likely be there….I’m even able to settle with Kai being that 18th pick.

The Spurs have been working out players mostly in that range with the exception of MAYBE Sengun

Duarte + Isaiah Jackson please

Murphy + Kispert would be pretty crazy shooting wise

Cmon Presti, do us a solid.

[Degoat]

https://twitter.com/jandersonsacbee/status/1417531772762394639?s=21

If there’s any trade down, i hope it’s this kind of trade down. 16 and 18 would be a steal, IMO. Especially with the players I like that will likely be there….I’m even able to settle with Kai being that 18th pick.

The Spurs have been working out players mostly in that range with the exception of MAYBE Sengun

Duarte + Isaiah Jackson please

Murphy + Kispert would be pretty crazy shooting wise

Cmon Presti, do us a solid.

I would be soooo on board with that, kinda hard to see OKC doing that though

[Mr. Body]

I would be soooo on board with that, kinda hard to see OKC doing that though

OKC has tons of picks coming up. The last thing they need is more players.

I'm unsure about it for the Spurs. Maybe they have a trigger if they don't see the player they want. Maybe they have a solid tier they think they fall into. If, say, four players are left as their pick comes up, then they trade down knowing they will get one of them, plus someone of the next tier.

It'll be a bit wild for us after the initial 6 picks. I think things are fairly flat between that pick and 20, maybe, with one potential outlier (Sengun), although I think he'll go top 10.

[pad300]

https://twitter.com/jandersonsacbee/status/1417531772762394639?s=21

If there’s any trade down, i hope it’s this kind of trade down. 16 and 18 would be a steal, IMO. Especially with the players I like that will likely be there….I’m even able to settle with Kai being that 18th pick.

The Spurs have been working out players mostly in that range with the exception of MAYBE Sengun

Duarte + Isaiah Jackson please

Murphy + Kispert would be pretty crazy shooting wise

Cmon Presti, do us a solid.

I'd be unhappy with a trade down unless someone good falls farther than expected. We don't really need more role-player level guys. We need a first (or at least second) option guy, which you generally don't get trading down.

[Dejounte]

I'd be unhappy with a trade down unless someone good falls farther than expected. We don't really need more role-player level guys. We need a first (or at least second) option guy, which you generally don't get trading down.

the Spurs rarely miss. If they trade down to 16, I don’t expect anyone from 12 to 15 to be a star. On the other hand, they found a first option with a 15th pick before so this notion that whoever they get at 16 will likely be a role player isn’t a given.

[Mr. Body]

I'd be unhappy with a trade down unless someone good falls farther than expected. We don't really need more role-player level guys. We need a first (or at least second) option guy, which you generally don't get trading down.

I'd think they'd only do it as the draft takes shape and as a contingency. OkC, too. It would ask depend on preferred players dropping.

[bluebellmaniac]

I'd think they'd only do it as the draft takes shape and as a contingency. OkC, too. It would ask depend on preferred players dropping.

I think a trade down means a preferred player was taken so might as well trade down.

[BacktoBasics]

I think a trade down means a preferred player was taken so might as well trade down.

This was what I was going to say. Any trade down wouldn’t be to capitalize on a targeted player in that range. It would be because a much better target was drafted earlier than expected and they don’t see a big enough gain with what’s remaining and what would be there later.

[Mr. Body]

I think a trade down means a preferred player was taken so might as well trade down.

Yeah, that's what I said a few posts up.

[mo7888]

https://twitter.com/jandersonsacbee/status/1417531772762394639?s=21

If there’s any trade down, i hope it’s this kind of trade down. 16 and 18 would be a steal, IMO. Especially with the players I like that will likely be there….I’m even able to settle with Kai being that 18th pick.

The Spurs have been working out players mostly in that range with the exception of MAYBE Sengun

Duarte + Isaiah Jackson please

Murphy + Kispert would be pretty crazy shooting wise

Cmon Presti, do us a solid.

Unless Wagner falls...that's the trade I want too..

[The Truth #6]

If Sengun is gone, yeah, trade down for 16 and 18. I’m on board.

Duarte
Springer
Garuba
Thor
Kispert
Isiah Jackson

Should be able to get one of Duarte or maybe even Kispert for ace shooting, then get maybe Garuba, Jackson or definitely JT Thor for some size. Obviously other ways to approach it as well. Presti is too monomaniacal to go for this, though.

[bluebellmaniac]

8 Days until the Draft!!!

Get your prognostications in now!

[offset formation]

Thank you sir.

Mark Olberding, aka "Ding Dong," aka "the Young Warrior."

My faith is restored. In this age of belligerence over the most pedestrian of things, great to see an old school reference. :)

"Old-school" needs to be hyphenated.

:bobo:violin

Beligerent enough? I'll see myself out now.

[Dejounte]

Just put me to sleep until draft day

[Dejounte]

Question is, what player do you draft to stop or slow down Giannis?

perimeter defense won’t be of much help, he’s not much of a shooter

he is dominant inside, so you get a player who has good interior defense.

to me, that’s Isaiah Jackson.

someone quick enough and covers enough space to counter his euro steps inside.

but also someone smart enough not to foul him, meaning good interior d fundamentals (meaning Kai is out)

basically a 4/5 who isn’t a stiff

this is all down the road of course, if the Bucks are still contending years later, we have someone to develop into a Giannis stopper later on

I think Sengun would be abused. Franz has a chance, but he might be too handsy and get fouled out. So it depends on if he’s smart enough not to be careless with his arms.

makes me think about raising Isaiah up a tier. Maybe, maybe not.

[Dejounte]

Giannis is a giant compared to everyone in the draft. I don’t think even Scottie Barnes has a chance.

[Dejounte]

Ayton is thought of as a decent interior defender, but it’s obvious the proper archetype to slow down Giannis is someone more mobile than him.

[rankingtear]

Question is, what player do you draft to stop or slow down Giannis?

perimeter defense won’t be of much help, he’s not much of a shooter

he is dominant inside, so you get a player who has good interior defense.

to me, that’s Isaiah Jackson.

someone quick enough and covers enough space to counter his euro steps inside.

but also someone smart enough not to foul him, meaning good interior d fundamentals (meaning Kai is out)

basically a 4/5 who isn’t a stiff

this is all down the road of course, if the Bucks are still contending years later, we have someone to develop into a Giannis stopper later on

I think Sengun would be abused. Franz has a chance, but he might be too handsy and get fouled out. So it depends on if he’s smart enough not to be careless with his arms.

makes me think about raising Isaiah up a tier. Maybe, maybe not.


Whoever is closest to Bam/ Young Horford. Garuba, Barnes, Sims, Grey

[Mr. Body]

Milwaukee won deservedly and Giannis is an incredible player, but they faced an underwhelming Phoenix team and got past the Nets when they were injured. Not saying they won't be there in the future again, but basing your draft on trying to stop one single player, who we will never face in the playoffs, doesn't seem wise. Stick with needing defenders, if anything, who can switch, go over screens, mess with pick-n-rolls, etc.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Question is, what player do you draft to stop or slow down Giannis?

perimeter defense won’t be of much help, he’s not much of a shooter

he is dominant inside, so you get a player who has good interior defense.

to me, that’s Isaiah Jackson.

someone quick enough and covers enough space to counter his euro steps inside.

but also someone smart enough not to foul him, meaning good interior d fundamentals (meaning Kai is out)

basically a 4/5 who isn’t a stiff

this is all down the road of course, if the Bucks are still contending years later, we have someone to develop into a Giannis stopper later on

I think Sengun would be abused. Franz has a chance, but he might be too handsy and get fouled out. So it depends on if he’s smart enough not to be careless with his arms.

makes me think about raising Isaiah up a tier. Maybe, maybe not.

Garuba by far the most appropriate.

Maybe Barnes or Wagner.

[niraj2000]

Before worrying about Giannis, Spurs have a bigger question, who is the core who will take them to the playoffs. Once the Spurs reach the playoffs, they can get guys for specific opponents.

[gospursgojas]

The days of spurs looking for players to stop specific players are long gone lol. We just need good players period.

[KingKev]

Question is, what player do you draft to stop or slow down Giannis?

perimeter defense won’t be of much help, he’s not much of a shooter

he is dominant inside, so you get a player who has good interior defense.

to me, that’s Isaiah Jackson.

someone quick enough and covers enough space to counter his euro steps inside.

but also someone smart enough not to foul him, meaning good interior d fundamentals (meaning Kai is out)

basically a 4/5 who isn’t a stiff

this is all down the road of course, if the Bucks are still contending years later, we have someone to develop into a Giannis stopper later on

I think Sengun would be abused. Franz has a chance, but he might be too handsy and get fouled out. So it depends on if he’s smart enough not to be careless with his arms.

makes me think about raising Isaiah up a tier. Maybe, maybe not.

Should be focused on drafting the next Giannis not stoping him. This team is headed for a relocation based on the current trajectory. Greece might be a nice destination; Santorini Spurs anybody?

[buttsR4rebounding]

Whoever is closest to Bam/ Young Horford. Garuba, Barnes, Sims, Grey

Luka Samanic

[The Truth #6]

Question is, what player do you draft to stop or slow down Giannis?

perimeter defense won’t be of much help, he’s not much of a shooter

he is dominant inside, so you get a player who has good interior defense.

to me, that’s Isaiah Jackson.

someone quick enough and covers enough space to counter his euro steps inside.

but also someone smart enough not to foul him, meaning good interior d fundamentals (meaning Kai is out)

basically a 4/5 who isn’t a stiff

this is all down the road of course, if the Bucks are still contending years later, we have someone to develop into a Giannis stopper later on

I think Sengun would be abused. Franz has a chance, but he might be too handsy and get fouled out. So it depends on if he’s smart enough not to be careless with his arms.

makes me think about raising Isaiah up a tier. Maybe, maybe not.

To me, Garuba has the best chance. He’s probably not what we need at #12, but I see him being very useful to contenders.

[itzsoweezee]

The days of spurs looking for players to stop specific players are long gone lol. We just need good players period.

Beyond dumb. How about make the playoffs

[Dejounte]

I understand not getting a player whose only task is to stop Giannis

It would be nice to find someone who can match Giannis pound for pound on the offensive

but the NBA story has always been about giants facing giants

PHX lost because no one could stop Giannis

if LA was the matchup, the story would be LeBron vs Giannis and every 1 on 1 instance would be looked at closely

If you get a star like Sengun, but he’s being abused left and right by Giannis, you have to sit him down. What’s the solution then?

IMO, you need a guy who can hold the fort down on defense at least somewhat comfortably. Thats what a core piece has to be able to do if we are looking at long term. Look at flawed superstars like Simmons where you have to go through the trouble of masking his weaknesses

can you find that guy at 12? It’s possible but very difficult. Say Jackson does pan out, yeah we’re not expecting him to be like Giannis on offense, but maybe he won’t be such a liability that you have to sit him down. And then on offense, make sure he’s being utilized to his strengths and run post moves or face ups or whatever.

just food for thought

[The Truth #6]

I understand not getting a player whose only task is to stop Giannis

It would be nice to find someone who can match Giannis pound for pound on the offensive

but the NBA story has always been about giants facing giants

PHX lost because no one could stop Giannis

if LA was the matchup, the story would be LeBron vs Giannis and every 1 on 1 instance would be looked at closely

If you get a star like Sengun, but he’s being abused left and right by Giannis, you have to sit him down. What’s the solution then?

IMO, you need a guy who can hold the fort down at least somewhat comfortably

can you find that guy at 12? It’s possible but very difficult. Say Jackson does pan out, yeah we’re not expecting him to be like Giannis on offense, but maybe he won’t be such a liability that you have to sit him down. And then on offense, make sure he’s being utilized to his strengths and run post moves or face ups or whatever.

just food for thought

I’m intrigued by Jackson. Maybe he has some untapped Kentucky magic? But for this discussion, he seems so thin that he would be abused by Giannis. Garuba, to me, projects to be the ultimate defender. Great lateral quickness, great hands, kong arms, super strong. Perfect for the Lebron/Giannis/Kawhi freaks. Or as close as one can hope for. But, maybe Jackson would be better for us, in theory.

[Dejounte]

I’m intrigued by Jackson. Maybe he has some untapped Kentucky magic? But for this discussion, he seems so thin that he would be abused by Giannis. Garuba, to me, projects to be the ultimate defender. Great lateral quickness, great hands, kong arms, super strong. Perfect for the Lebron/Giannis/Kawhi freaks. Or as close as one can hope for. But, maybe Jackson would be better for us, in theory.


he does seem thin. I guess it comes down to core strength. As long as he doesnt get constantly knocked on his ass like Poku.

[Dejounte]

I don’t really think Garuba has the size. Yeah, he has long arms but I feel like Giannis is still twice as big that he’ll easily have his way with him.

plus, like I said on the point of giants facing giants— i remain unconvinced Garuba has a realistic development path to becoming an offensive focal point. His handle is nonexistent. No evidence of post move skills. Not explosive to create shot opportunities. I think his trajectory is a Draymond type without the secondary playmaking skill.

[Gibbz]

I'm feeling Sengun or Kai Jones right now if either are available at 12.

[EasyMoney]

I just hope they didn't already assume Jakob spot as starting C is set in stone.

[TD 21]

I know I was making the devil's advocate case for Kispert months ago, but I cringe hearing his (and Giddey's) name in relation to the the Spurs this close to the draft, when the mocks attempt to be more rumor than opinion based.

If they're not planning on swinging for the fence, then just trade down, get multiple picks and go with high floor role players like Butler and Murphy III, who have a chance to be non liability players.

[mo7888]

I know I was making the devil's advocate case for Kispert months ago, but I cringe hearing his (and Giddey's) name in relation to the the Spurs this close to the draft, when the mocks attempt to be more rumor than opinion based.

If they're not planning on swinging for the fence, then just trade down, get multiple picks and go with high floor role players like Butler and Murphy III, who have a chance to be non liability players.

I kinda feel the same way.... I keep trying to tell myself that there 'could' be plans in FA that would lend itself towards taking Kispert at #12 that might make it make more sense.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I'm feeling Sengun or Kai Jones right now if either are available at 12.

me too bro!

[John B]

Nobody can guard Giannis one-on-one. You make him beat you, not the entire team..... and then turn-off the a/c and hope for the best :lol

[bluebellmaniac]

Nobody can guard Giannis one-on-one. You make him beat you, not the entire team..... and then turn-off the a/c and hope for the best :lol

Lol!

[PhantomDashCam]

https://twitter.com/TEastNBA/status/1417884810568155144?s=20

Know we have some fans in the house for each prospect listed here. Pacers.com has the full interviews uploaded now.

[Mr. Body]

This is Wasserman's (Bleacher Report) current mock up to the Spurs:

Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham

Houston Rockets: Jalen Green

Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley

Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs

Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes

Oklahoma City Thunder: James Bouknight

Golden State Warriors (via Wolves): Moses Moody

Orlando Magic (via Bulls): Jonathan Kuminga

Sacramento Kings: Franz Wagner

New Orleans Pelicans: Corey Kispert

Charlotte Hornets: Kai Jones

San Antonio Spurs: Josh Giddey

He has OKC picking Sengun at #16.

I actually think the first 11 picks may be close to spot on. Not sure I agree about Giddey.

[tonight...you]

This is Wasserman's (Bleacher Report) current mock up to the Spurs:

Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham

Houston Rockets: Jalen Green

Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley

Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs

Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes

Oklahoma City Thunder: James Bouknight

Golden State Warriors (via Wolves): Moses Moody

Orlando Magic (via Bulls): Jonathan Kuminga

Sacramento Kings: Franz Wagner

New Orleans Pelicans: Corey Kispert

Charlotte Hornets: Kai Jones

San Antonio Spurs: Josh Giddey

He has OKC picking Sengun at #16.

I actually think the first 11 picks may be close to spot on. Not sure I agree about Giddey.
If it comes to between Giddey and Sengun... I go Sengun 7 days out of 7.