Texas response to Corona virus

[tholdren]

You mean the nonsense that single people are being tested 10 times in one day and are counted as 10 individual new cases, right?

lololololol you dont know how to.respond because you dont know. Bwahabaahababhahahababab
Keep using the charts

Mr. Wrongchart right here.


Kolololooks

Doesn't even know how data collected lolololol

[baseline bum]

You mean the nonsense that single people are being tested 10 times in one day and are counted as 10 individual new cases, right?

No, it's also the Spurs getting tested everyday!


Pro atheletes too. Asymptomatic caught by daily testing.... added to case count. Lol

[midnightpulp]

Shit, my bad. Still, haven't really found much in six months of the pandemic though so I wouldn't get my hopes too high. I believe Fauci when he says there will be no miracle cure.

Yeah, I don't believe that at all. But if we can find a proven treatment that reduces serious cases by even 20 percent, it'd be big.

[tholdren]

No, it's also the Spurs getting tested everyday!

Bwagahahaabhahabab you dont even know who is being tested. Lololol

[tholdren]

Yeah, I don't believe that at all. But if we can find a proven treatment that reduces serious cases by even 20 percent, it'd be big.

bwahahahahhahaahhah lolololoI

You dont understand new cases

[ChumpDumper]

You replied before I could embed the tweet properly. Here's what Abbot was saying.

1280374566280445952WhatAbbottery

It's basically a DMC post.

[baseline bum]

Bwagahahaabhahabab you dont even know who is being tested. Lololol

The Spurs all have COVID and are blowing up Bexar County's numbers by +12!

[midnightpulp]

bwahahahahhahaahhah lolololoI

You dont understand new cases

Why did Texas record their highest death total today? You'd figure a gung-ho red state that is all about freedom wouldn't fudge the numbers, especially with a Trump ally at the helm.

So who is dying and of what? Where all these new deaths coming from?

[baseline bum]

Anyways, back to the ignore list for that faggot tholdren

[tholdren]

WhatAbbottery

It's basically a DMC post.

Nwahahahhaahahhahaha Karen pwned again. Lolololoolol

You were shamed hahahhahahahaha

[tholdren]

Why did Texas record their highest death total today? You'd figure a gung-ho red state that is all about freedom wouldn't fudge the numbers, especially with a Trump ally at the helm.

So who is dying and of what? Where all these new deaths coming from?

Did all the deaths occur today? No? Thats odd

[tholdren]

Did all the deaths occur today? No? Thats odd

Did even 1 death occur today, with or from or probable covid?

[midnightpulp]

^and the concerning fact about that death total is those are deaths from when Texas was recording 10 percent-ish positive rates in Mid-June (death lag 2 to 3 weeks). Now they are trending in the high teens and had a 27 percent rate today.

[tholdren]

^and the concerning fact about that death total is those are deaths from when Texas was recording 10 percent-ish positive rates in Mid-June (death lag 2 to 3 weeks). Now they are trending in the high teens and had a 27 percent rate today.

Quick give the context.

How many today were with comorbitiy or peobable?

How many actually died today?

If you dont know you are gossiping

[tholdren]

or are you ChumpDumper

In march he tried to say that current accurate data didn't matter.

He still doesn't understand how any of this is reported or calculated. But he says its science. But he doesn't know how its science. Sounds like pgardn

[TimDunkem]

5 out of the last 6 posts. looooololololol bwahahaha melllllttttdoooooownnn :lol

[tholdren]

and there you have it. Typical Chumpettes. Out of context data is science. Lolololol

[tholdren]

5 out of the last 6 posts. looooololololol bwahahaha melllllttttdoooooownnn :lol

Triggered. Low iq poster says lamelo ball is telalented and covid is dangerous to everyone!!!

[ElNono]

Have some mercy, stop beating on the mentally challenged... he's melting down :lmao

[midnightpulp]

Quick give the context.

How many today were with comorbitiy or peobable?

How many actually died today?

If you dont know you are gossiping

:lmao From/with deflection. If a livable beetus condition is turned deadly by Covid, he died of Covid.

Next question. To look at trends, it's more helpful to look at 7 day averages. Texas's current 7 day average is 57 (meaning about 400 people are now dying each week from Covid). That is up from 35 just a week ago. And troublingly, those numbers are from patients who were admitted 2 weeks to a month ago when Texas was around a 10 percent positive rate. Texas is now around a 20 percent positive rate over the last week.

Texas won't get New York bad. I don't think any region can get that bad, but I could see Texas plateauing to 200-300 in the 7 day moving average stat, which is a bit below Italy's disaster. So yes, stay home and wear a mask. Keep everyone safe.

[Blake]

they are going to have to alternate days

at least break up kids into 1/3 groups
2/3 time at home
Something like this

I've heard this one. How do teachers keep the curriculum on a regular pace

[baseline bum]

5 out of the last 6 posts. looooololololol bwahahaha melllllttttdoooooownnn :lol

7 of 9 :lol

[tholdren]

:lmao From/with deflection. If a livable beetus condition is turned deadly by Covid, he died of Covid.

Next question. To look at trends, it's more helpful to look at 7 day averages. Texas's current 7 day average is 57 (meaning about 400 people are now dying each week from Covid). That is up from 35 just a week ago. And troublingly, those numbers are from patients who were admitted 2 weeks to a month ago when Texas was around a 10 percent positive rate. Texas is now around a 20 percent positive rate over the last week.

Texas won't get New York bad. I don't think any region can get that bad, but I could see Texas plateauing in the 200-300 7 day moving average stat, which is a bit below Italy's disaster. So yes, stay home and wear a mask. Keep everyone safe.

You responded with all that and answered 0 questions you were asked.

Great logic.

[DarrinS]

Why do you think the herd immunity strategy is wise? Why not, I don't know, reduce the odds of getting and spreading the virus through different measures until more proven treatments and a vaccine arrive? I expect the former to be here by the Fall, maybe earlier.

We also have ZERO clue how this virus affects people long term. It's more than just a respiratory virus. It also causes clotting and neurological damage.


I'm not saying it's wise -- just what happens eventually.

If people are going to be infected, it's best that the least vulnerable population get infected. Unfortunately, if these younger people live in multi-generational homes, that's a problem.

[Ef-man]

Have some mercy, stop beating on the mentally challenged... he's melting down :lmao

I placed him on ignore list as he reminds me exactly of bipolar person I know. He needs his meds and to get off board.

[ChumpDumper]

th:lolldren hasn't answered one question in six months.

[tholdren]

th:lolldren hasn't answered one question in six months.

pwned again. Can't stay away.lololol

[TimDunkem]

Bwahahaha th:lolldren getting pwned again as usual bwahahaha BWAHAHAHA :lmao

[tholdren]

Bwahahaha th:lolldren getting pwned again as usual bwahahaha BWAHAHAHA :lmao

You cried on the internet about needing sympathy for having covid. But were lying. Lolololol great plan.

[midnightpulp]

You responded with all that and answered 0 questions you were asked.

Great logic.

I did answer. It's useless to talk about single day deaths. But to answer you, 400 people died OF Covid this past week in Texas, as the 7 day average reveals. No, car accident deaths aren't being counted as Covid deaths. Stop with that nonsense.

[DarrinS]

Bwahahaha th:lolldren getting pwned again as usual bwahahaha BWAHAHAHA :lmao

You guys keep responding. Why?

[tholdren]

I did answer. It's useless to talk about single day deaths. But to answer you, 400 people died OF Covid this past week in Texas, as the 7 day average reveals. No, car accident deaths aren't being counted as Covid deaths. Stop with that nonsense.

bwahahahahahaha no they didn't and youre too gossipy to understand that. Lololkololoololl

NOT HOW DEATH COUNT IS REPORTED.



BWAGAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH

[tholdren]

You guys keep responding. Why?

because they have low iq and they don't understand. Hence the continuous responses.

[ChumpDumper]

Now he's going on about jew deaths.

[DarrinS]

Stop responding

[tholdren]

Stop responding

these guys can't. They are low iq message board posters. This is what they do. They get value from social media warriorism

[DarrinS]

It seems the curve doesn't really come down until a certain percentage are infected. The northeast was clobbered, so now their curve looks good. This isn't some second wave for Texas. We never had much of a first wave, compared to the NE.

[ChumpDumper]

It seems the curve doesn't really come down until a certain percentage are infected. The northeast was clobbered, so now their curve looks good. This isn't some second wave for Texas. We never had much of a first wave, compared to the NE.They didn't open back up like we did.

[DarrinS]

They didn't open back up like we did.

California

[ChumpDumper]

CaliforniaDid you get whiplash moving your argument 2500 miles in one post?

[DMC]

I pointed it out long ago and then I stopped pointing it out. Let the laymen lie, let them have their front porch reckonin' and Google splainin'.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol DMC needs us to read whatever he's going on about now....

[DarrinS]

Did you get whiplash moving your argument 2500 miles in one post?

California locked down hard.

Enough people have to get it before it fades.

[ChumpDumper]

California locked down hard.

Enough people have to get it before it fades.Why did it fade in South Korea?

[DarrinS]

Why did it fade in South Korea?

They jumped on it quickly and don't have a fat fuck population?

[ElNono]

California locked down hard.

Enough people have to get it before it fades.

Not really, no. I mean, give me the list of countries where "enough people" had it before it faded. Shouldn't be too hard, both infection counts and population numbers are readily available.

[ChumpDumper]

They jumped on it quickly and don't have a fat fuck population?Oh, now timing has something to do with it.

Sounds more complicated than you originally said.

[DarrinS]

Not really, no. I mean, give me the list of countries where "enough people" had it before it faded. Shouldn't be too hard, both infection counts and population numbers are readily available.

Some European countries, Spain, Italy, France.

In the states, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, etc.

[DarrinS]

Oh, now timing has something to do with it.

Sounds more complicated than you originally said.

If it gets out of control, e.g. NY, it doesn't go away until a certain percentage have been infected.

[ChumpDumper]

According to Darrin's theory, if Arizona gets another 50k cases they'll be done and it's all downhill from there..

I guess we'll see.

[pgardn]

I pointed it out long ago and then I stopped pointing it out. Let the laymen lie, let them have their front porch reckonin' and Google splainin'.

Dr. DMC here to tell you what its bout.
Just as long as it has nothing to do with science.

[ChumpDumper]

If it gets out of control, e.g. NY, it doesn't go away until a certain percentage have been infected.
So they shouldn't even have shut down?

Or is it more complicated than what you said?

[ChumpDumper]

Dr. DMC here to tell you what its bout.
Just as long as it has nothing to do with science.To DMC, saying he's right is more important than actually being right.

[DMC]

Dr. DMC here to tell you what its bout.
Just as long as it has nothing to do with science.

nonsensical gibberish

[Blake]

If it gets out of control, e.g. NY, it doesn't go away until a certain percentage have been infected.

Wow you really think that's how it goes away?

[DMC]

To DMC, saying he's right is more important than actually being right.

To you, being here day and night is more important than ever seeing daylight sans bedroom window.

[Blake]

So they shouldn't even have shut down?

Or is it more complicated than what you said?

Apparently we all should have gone full Swede

[ChumpDumper]

Wow you really think that's how it goes away?As far as I can understand it, his theory is that it's out of fuel because maybe 2 million people out of 8 million in NYC got it.

I call it the Hopeful Swede theory.

[ChumpDumper]

To you, being here day and night is more important than ever seeing daylight sans bedroom window.Your precious narratives are the most important things to you.

Also collecting information on us. That's up there too.

[DarrinS]

So they shouldn't even have shut down?

Or is it more complicated than what you said?


I'm not sure what point you're trying to argue.


I think it is a net positive, if a large number of low-risk people get infected, so long as they don't infect a large number of vulnerable people.

[DarrinS]

There is no "shutting down" your way to zero cases.

[Blake]

To you, being here day and night is more important than ever seeing daylight sans bedroom window.

Dude you have almost 76k posts here

[DMC]

Dude you have almost 76k posts here

I also still have my wife.

[ChumpDumper]

There is no "shutting down" your way to zero cases.Well there was, but we were too stupid to try when it might have worked.

Makes a nice strawman for you now tho.

Hopeful Swede.

[Blake]

I'm not sure what point you're trying to argue.


I think it is a net positive, if a large number of low-risk people get infected, so long as they don't infect a large number of vulnerable people.

How is that supposed to happen without shutting some things down?

[ChumpDumper]

I also still have my wife.According to your narrative.

[DarrinS]

How is that supposed to happen without shutting some things down?

That's the fucked up balancing act that we're living through.

[DMC]

According to your narrative.

People lie all the time about being married. It's an epidemic.

[ChumpDumper]

People lie all the time about being married. It's an epidemic.Well, I wouldn't put you above it.

[DMC]

Well, I wouldn't put you above it.

Good information. Thanks for posting.

[DarrinS]

Well there was, but we were too stupid to try when it might have worked.

Makes a nice strawman for you now tho.

Hopeful Swede.


I am a hopeful person, tbh. I have zero fear of Wuhan AIDS virus for myself.

But, I fear for my fellow fat fuck Hispanic diabetes ridden citizens.

[pgardn]

nonsensical gibberish

Of course.

Just like when I told you we are visual animals and you insisted we could measure wind speed without eyes.
I said yes and then...
I asked how you would LOOK at the reading measured on your anemometer. Braille? You did not understand.

Or when you insisted I did not understand Instruments because I called them, machines.
You are a bad salesman.

That was all gibberish as well.

We could go on to your writing for TIME magazine, or you headhunting for Universities, but you dont want that.

[ChumpDumper]

Good information. Thanks for posting.Put in in your file on me.

[midnightpulp]

I'm not sure what point you're trying to argue.


I think it is a net positive, if a large number of low-risk people get infected, so long as they don't infect a large number of vulnerable people.

You're arguing herd immunity, obviously. There's no evidence that the hardest hit regions in the world are anywhere close to herd immunity, which requires anywhere from 70%-90% of the population to be infected. The "some people might be naturally immune" hasn't been proven. They did a serosurvey of Northern Italy (the hardest hit region) in April when they were past their plateau and exponentially declining. The results:


During the study period characterized by a gradual implementation of social distancing measures, there was a progressive increase in adjusted seroprevalence to 5.2%,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

So why has Italy and other hard hit regions remained flat in cases and deaths? Because social distancing, even in an "open economy" (and these regions aren't fully open), along with mask wearing work. The thing about exponentials is that a slight reduction can have a profound effect.

Difference between an R0 of 2.2 and an R0 of 1.5 is almost 5 million deaths. Play around with the values.

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

But many Americans have shown they will not have their Freedumbs infringed upon by abiding by mask orders, by limiting large gatherings (so many packed driveways and houses during July 4th), and by behaving responsibly (packing bars and such). If New York's citizens get impatient and lax, they will face another outbreak. They, too, aren't anywhere close to herd immunity.

[Blake]

I also still have my wife.

It's cheaper to keep her, huh

[ChumpDumper]

I am a hopeful person, tbh. I have zero fear of Wuhan AIDS virus for myself.

But, I fear for my fellow fat fuck Hispanic diabetes ridden citizens.Hopeful But Condescending Swede

[Blake]

..

[midnightpulp]

I'm not sure what point you're trying to argue.


I think it is a net positive, if a large number of low-risk people get infected, so long as they don't infect a large number of vulnerable people.

You're arguing herd immunity, obviously. There's no evidence that the hardest hit regions in the world are anywhere close to herd immunity, which requires anywhere from 70%-90% of the population to be infected. The "some people might be naturally immune" hasn't been proven. They did a serosurvey of Northern Italy (the hardest hit region) in April when they were past their plateau and exponentially declining. The results:


During the study period characterized by a gradual implementation of social distancing measures, there was a progressive increase in adjusted seroprevalence to 5.2%,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

So why has Italy and other hard hit regions remained flat in cases and deaths? Because social distancing, even in an "open economy" (and these regions aren't fully open), along with mask wearing work. The thing about exponentials is that a slight reduction can have a profound effect.

Difference between an R0 of 2.2 and an R0 of 1.5 is almost 5 million deaths. Play around with the values.

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

But many Americans have shown they will not have their Freedumbs infringed upon by abiding by mask orders, by limiting large gatherings (so many packed driveways and houses during July 4th), and by behaving responsibly (packing bars and such). If New York's citizens get impatient and lax, they will face another outbreak. They, too, aren't anywhere close to herd immunity.

[DarrinS]

You're arguing herd immunity, obviously. There's no evidence that the hardest hit regions in the world are anywhere close to herd immunity, which requires anywhere from 70%-90% of the population to be infected. The "some people might be naturally immune" hasn't been proven. They did a serosurvey of Northern Italy (the hardest hit region) in April when they were past their plateau and exponentially declining. The results:



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

So why has Italy and other hard hit regions remained flat in cases and deaths? Because social distancing, even in an "open economy" (and these regions aren't fully open), along with mask wearing work. The thing about exponentials is that a slight reduction can have a profound effect.

Difference between an R0 of 2.2 and an R0 of 1.5 is almost 5 million deaths. Play around with the values.

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

But many Americans have shown they will not have their Freedumbs infringed upon by abiding by mask orders, by limiting large gatherings (so many packed driveways and houses during July 4th), and by behaving responsibly (packing bars and such). If New York's citizens get impatient and lax, they will face another outbreak. They, too, aren't anywhere close to herd immunity.



What if herd immunity (practically speaking) is way before 70% or more?

[ChumpDumper]

I am a hopeful person, tbh. I have zero fear of Wuhan AIDS virus for myself.Wait. If you have no fear of it for yourself, why did you kick your child and friend out of the house?

[Blake]

I am a hopeful person, tbh. I have zero fear of Wuhan AIDS virus for myself.

But, I fear for my fellow fat fuck Hispanic diabetes ridden citizens.

Yeah there's no way any white people would pass it to you at your all white neighborhood bar

[DarrinS]

Wait. If you have no fear of it for yourself, why did you kick your child and friend out of the house?

No need to be completely careless

[Blake]

Wait. If you have no fear of it for yourself, why did you kick your child and friend out of the house?

I guess we know the race and size of his child's friend

[ChumpDumper]

No need to be completely carelessI would call that a reasonable amount of fear.

[DarrinS]

I guess we know the race and size of his child's friend

Petite white girl. Fuck off

[DarrinS]

I would call that a reasonable amount of fear.

I wear seatbelts, too.

[ChumpDumper]

I wear seatbelts, too.Also the law but a reasonable fear of auto accidents.

It doesn't make you less of a man. Relax.

[DarrinS]

Yeah there's no way any white people would pass it to you at your all white neighborhood bar

Most patrons at my bar are Hispanic. Fuck off

[DarrinS]

Yeah there's no way any white people would pass it to you at your all white neighborhood bar

Most patrons at my bar are Hispanic. Fuck off

[pgardn]

I wear seatbelts, too.

damn it you complied with an unnecessary law.

Spurter and TGY are going to blame YOU when they are required to wear a mask and bra.

Its a broad slippery slope, this compliance thing.

[midnightpulp]

There is no "shutting down" your way to zero cases.

We had the plan back in March. Shutdown hard for 2 months (which the collective nation didn't) and then reopen by phases and continue to practice social distancing, limit large gatherings, set up a test-and-trace solution, and wear masks.

What happened?

Immediately there were protests against "evil tyrant governors" shutting down their states, people were having large gatherings in churches out of spite, and an avalanche of lockdown skepticism from Covid "truthers" ran rampant on every social media platform. By Memorial Day, we were back to square one. Now, these same truthers and skeptics are refusing to wear masks, crying about how any test-and-trace solution would be "government overreach," and are already refusing to go back into any sort of lockdown.

And sure, if you want to throw some blame at the Floyd protests, sure. Only the most naive would think it didn't contribute to some case increase, but the main vector really has been indoor gatherings.

And fuck these people. They derailed the progress we were making out of their sheer objection to abide by anything they perceive to have a "liberal slant." Society shouldn't be forced into the herd immunity solution because these assholes don't want to wear a mask in Target and stay home as much as they can. Fuck them again.

[midnightpulp]

What if herd immunity (practically speaking) is way before 70% or more?

What if it isn't? What if it only lasts 6 months? What if supposed "low risk" demographics suffer long term health consequences more than we thought (even asymptomatics are showing lung damage). When you're playing with people's lives and health, "what ifs" aren't good enough.

[DarrinS]

What if it isn't? What if it only lasts 6 months? What if supposed "low risk" demographics suffer long term health consequences more than we thought (even asymptomatics are showing lung damage). When you're playing with people's lives and health, "what ifs" aren't good enough.

It was a question I don't know the answer to, but it's fairly apparent that hardest hit areas had sharply declining curves. Seemed worthy of debate.

[ChumpDumper]

It was a question I don't know the answer to, but it's fairly apparent that hardest hit areas had sharply declining curves. Seemed worthy of debate.Maybe those are the areas that take the virus most seriously now and comply with social distancing and mask wearing the most.

[DarrinS]

Maybe those are the areas that take the virus most seriously now and comply with social distancing and mask wearing the most.

Are you being serious?

[midnightpulp]

It was a question I don't know the answer to, but it's fairly apparent that hardest hit areas had sharply declining curves. Seemed worthy of debate.

Yes, you can sharply decline the curve by mask wearing, social distancing, and just being careful. You don't need to require people to get sick. That's cruelty. Many people like to refer to Sweden, and think they were essentially business as usual, but their citizens were pretty much behaving as if they were in lock down. Plus, advantages for Sweden is like 50 percent of their population is single person homes and many of them work from home anyway. But not locking down hard in Sweden vs. Denmark/Norway allowed the virus to sneak into nursing homes and infect other at risk groups.

My issue with the US in this context is that we are collectively too selfish, individualistic, and stupidly stubborn to behave the way a Sweden has. If 30 percent of the population doesn't buy in, then it won't work. And as I said above, people shouldn't be forced into the herd immunity solution because these "truthers" don't want to mask up and limit social interaction as much as possible.

[ChumpDumper]

Are you being serious?Yes. You know protesters were a tiny fraction of the actual populations of these areas, don't you? Not to mention your constant claim that the virus would hardly be spread outdoors-- at least you said that before the protests. I guess it's not actually worthy of debate.

[DarrinS]

Yes, you can sharply decline the curve by mask wearing, social distancing, and just being careful. You don't need to require people to get sick. That's cruelty. Many people like to refer to Sweden, and think they were essentially business as usual, but their citizens were pretty much behaving as if they were in lock down. Plus, advantages for Sweden is like 50 percent of their population is single person homes and many of them work from home anyway. But not locking down hard in Sweden vs. Denmark/Norway allowed the virus to sneak into nursing homes and infect other at risk groups.

My issue with the US in this context is that we are collectively too selfish, individualistic, and stupidly stubborn to behave the way a Sweden has. If 30 percent of the population doesn't buy in, then it won't work. And as I said above, people shouldn't be forced into the herd immunity solution because these "truthers" don't want to mask up and limit social interaction as much as possible.


But, that's what happened where the curve dropped fast.

[Blake]

Petite white girl. Fuck off

You need to make up your mind as to what to be afraid of, tbh

[DarrinS]

You need to make up your mind as to what to be afraid of, tbh

You need to get back under your bed and fuck off.

[Blake]

You need to get back under your bed and fuck off.

You don't know where to go or what to do. This thing has you flip flopping every day and it's really not too difficult to figure out.

[Spurtacular]

You don't know where to go or what to do. This thing has you flip flopping every day and it's really not too difficult to figure out.

He should be more sure of the propaganda like you are, board cuckold. :lol

[midnightpulp]

But, that's what happened where the curve dropped fast.

Nope. The curve dropped fast because they took fast and decisive measures to sharply reduce it. Here's NY.

https://i.imgur.com/9smj7Xe.png

The yellow line is when most of the seeding took place. Then we see New York reduce its collective mobility by 65%. By May 1st, their case prevalence dropped by over 80 percent. And New York is still at 35% reduced mobility and is likely more cautious than ever socially, wearing masks, observing social distancing, etc, and we see they've kept their numbers down.

Their fast drop in collective mobility correlates with their fast decline in infections and deaths. There's no evidence they have any herd immunity. I don't know why you think herd immunity is a good solution, anyway. I'm thinking it's because you want the economy to get back to normal, but that isn't happening any time soon. You can have a relatively open economy if people abide by the precautions outlined by every health official there is. What you should be wanting is Trump urging mask use and every governor mandating masks in indoor establishments.

[Blake]

He should be more sure of the propaganda like you are, board cuckold. :lol

Oh something is nipping at my ankle. It must be almost midnight

[DarrinS]

Nope. The curve dropped fast because they took fast and decisive measures to sharply reduce it. Here's NY.

https://i.imgur.com/9smj7Xe.png

The yellow line is when most of the seeding took place. Then we see New York reduce its collective mobility by 65%. By May 1st, their case prevalence dropped by over 80 percent. And New York is still at 35% reduced mobility and is likely more cautious than ever socially, wearing masks, observing social distancing, etc, and we see they've kept their numbers down.

Their fast drop in collective mobility correlates with their fast decline in infections and deaths. There's no evidence they have any herd immunity. I don't know why you think herd immunity is a good solution, anyway. I'm thinking it's because you want the economy to get back to normal, but that isn't happening any time soon. You can have a relatively open economy if people abide by the precautions outlined by every health official there is. What you should be wanting is Trump urging mask use and every governor mandating masks in indoor establishments.


They all stayed in their poorly ventilated buildings and got sick.

We don't live on top of each other down here.

Compare case and/or death rates of NY and TX.

It's not close.

[Spurtacular]

Oh something is nipping at my ankle. It must be almost midnight

Like you could stand on your ankles. Yours are only for grabbing. :lmao

[midnightpulp]

They all stayed in their poorly ventilated buildings and got sick.

We don't live on top of each other down here.

Compare case and/or death rates of NY and TX.

It's not close.

Are you implying a stay at home order or Texas reducing their collective mobility wouldn't have efficacy? Let's look at that, shall we.

https://i.imgur.com/DswCYe1.png

Texas was CRUSHING it when they were at 50 percent reduced mobility. I remember getting blasted by MannyasGod for saying "Texas is looking real good." The combination of Texas's low population density with their social distancing over this time proved to work wonders. Texas ramped up to 20 percent below the usual and we're seeing how that contributed to a large seeding that is spiking all their metrics. As many health officials have said, "We went from 0-100 in reopening."

So I guess you're comforting yourself with, "at least we're not New York!" That shouldn't be a goal. New Zealand and Australia should be the goals.

[midnightpulp]

Like you could stand on your ankles. Yours are only for grabbing. :lmao

Got a theory for you bro.

1280814721772466176

Ask yourself who is promoting reopening and why?

[DarrinS]

Are you implying a stay at home order or Texas reducing their collective mobility wouldn't have efficacy? Let's look at that, shall we.

https://i.imgur.com/DswCYe1.png

Texas was CRUSHING it when they were at 50 percent reduced mobility. I remember getting blasted by MannyasGod for saying "Texas is looking real good." The combination of Texas's low population density with their social distancing over this time proved to work wonders. Texas ramped up to 20 percent below the usual and we're seeing how that contributed to a large seeding that is spiking all their metrics. As many health officials have said, "We went from 0-100 in reopening."

So I guess you're comforting yourself with, "at least we're not New York!" That shouldn't be a goal. New Zealand and Australia should be the goals.



I'm saying, maybe we have to reach their infection levels before our curve comes down.

[midnightpulp]

I'm saying, maybe we have to reach their infection levels before our curve comes down.

Why I'm saying is you don't need more infections to flatten the curve. You can flatten with social distancing, mask wearing, and such, and still have a somewhat open economy. Wanting the infection rate to increase is needlessly cruel. Until there's evidence that New York's infection rate contributed to their decline, I'll chalk it up their recent success as a result of their measures.

[ElNono]

Some European countries, Spain, Italy, France.

In the states, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, etc.

Sorry, maybe I misunderstood what you meant?

Spain = 300,000 infected, population 47 million
Italy = 242,149 infected, population 60 million
France = 169,473 infected, population 67 million

Most of these places locked down hard (and by hard I mean you needed to fill a form/certificate before leaving the house, at least in Italy), then slowly moved into different, more relaxes phases, which is what the WHO recommends, IIRC.

Not saying that would work in the US, tbh, but for example Italy is on phase 3 now, which include:

Face masks and social distancing will remain obligatory in enclosed public spaces, with a ban on large-scale gatherings also staying in place.

[ElNono]

That's the fucked up balancing act that we're living through.

It's not just us, the whole world is dealing with this thing, pretty much the same way.

And they're seeing results. We do in some places, and in other places we think we know better, and it's back to the drawing board.

[ElNono]

What if herd immunity (practically speaking) is way before 70% or more?

Why is herd immunity important?

Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just those who are immune.

Often, a percentage of the population must be capable of getting a disease in order for it to spread. This is called a threshold proportion. If the proportion of the population that is immune to the disease is greater than this threshold, the spread of the disease will decline. This is known as the herd immunity threshold.

What percentage of a community needs to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity? It varies from disease to disease. The more contagious a disease is, the greater the proportion of the population that needs to be immune to the disease to stop its spread. For example, the measles is a highly contagious illness. It's estimated that 94% of the population must be immune to interrupt the chain of transmission.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

---

So yeah, it's likely you need over 70%. If there's one thing this virus is, is fucking contagious. It'll eventually happen, after decades most likely, unless the virus self-implodes first or we find an effective vaccine.

[ElNono]

Yes, you can sharply decline the curve by mask wearing, social distancing, and just being careful. You don't need to require people to get sick. That's cruelty. Many people like to refer to Sweden, and think they were essentially business as usual, but their citizens were pretty much behaving as if they were in lock down.

If there's one thing Sweden proved, IMO, is that the vast majority of people do not want to get infected, period.

[RandomGuy]

Nope. The curve dropped fast because they took fast and decisive measures to sharply reduce it. Here's NY.

https://i.imgur.com/9smj7Xe.png

The yellow line is when most of the seeding took place. Then we see New York reduce its collective mobility by 65%. By May 1st, their case prevalence dropped by over 80 percent. And New York is still at 35% reduced mobility and is likely more cautious than ever socially, wearing masks, observing social distancing, etc, and we see they've kept their numbers down.

Their fast drop in collective mobility correlates with their fast decline in infections and deaths. There's no evidence they have any herd immunity. I don't know why you think herd immunity is a good solution, anyway. I'm thinking it's because you want the economy to get back to normal, but that isn't happening any time soon. You can have a relatively open economy if people abide by the precautions outlined by every health official there is. What you should be wanting is Trump urging mask use and every governor mandating masks in indoor establishments.

Darrin thinks herd immunity is a thing because his media bubble tells him so, and he cannot really think for himself.

The thing that needs understanding is that Trump is a full-on sociopath who does not care how many people die. Trump thinks that keeping open helps the economy so that helps his re-election chances. That is the depth of the concern there, and he is pushing that narrative down and out, and the right wing echo chamber DS is trapped in has magnified that message.

Darrin will support whatever that media tells him to.

Herd immunity is the rationalization from that propaganda machine to carry out the self-serving goal of Trump re-electing himself at the expense of actual lives.

[midnightpulp]

I'm saying, maybe we have to reach their infection levels before our curve comes down.

Also, you can lower the herd immunity threshold by taking those measures (masks, social distancing, etc). Ex:


In a Twitter thread in May, Dean emphasized that there’s too much uncertainty around basic aspects of the disease — from the different values of R0 in different settings to the effects of relaxing social distancing — to place much confidence in exact herd immunity thresholds. The threshold could be one number as long as a lot of people are wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings, and another much higher number if and when people let their guard down.

So yeah, in population where everyone is social distancing, wearing masks, and avoiding large gatherings, the herd immunity threshold is likely lower. The virus first infects a certain percentage but then "dies out" because it can't find new hosts who are avoiding it. Perhaps this did happen in NY. They've been strict about adhering to these measures.

In states that have a high population of the "Freedumb" contingent, I'm not sure it's going to work like that. This is why you should be enraged by those people if you desperately want to get back to normal. They've ruined it.

[midnightpulp]

Yo Splits, see if you can project Texas. You nailed NY and NJ.

[RandomGuy]

Why I'm saying is you don't need more infections to flatten the curve. You can flatten with social distancing, mask wearing, and such, and still have a somewhat open economy. Wanting the infection rate to increase is needlessly cruel. Until there's evidence that New York's infection rate contributed to their decline, I'll chalk it up their recent success as a result of their measures.

That is the more reasonable take, IMO.

[RandomGuy]

Yo Splits, see if you can project Texas. You nailed NY and NJ.

Now that I would like to see. My crude guess is that it gets bad, very bad, next week.

[midnightpulp]

Darrin thinks herd immunity is a thing because his media bubble tells him so, and he cannot really think for himself. --signed, ten years of interactions with the man.

Darrin and I always have reasonable conversations, so I'm not trying to come down on him, but the "herd immunity" idea seems to be 100 percent driven by an urge to get the economy back up and running full force either because you need to go back to work to provide for yourself (very understandable) or because you know a limp economy will hurt Trump's reelection chances and/or you're relatively wealthy and are concerned about your portfolio. It's funny, many of the herd immunity proponents on twitter will invariably be "investors" with a Libertarian bent.

"But you Liberals wanna keep the economy shutdown to hurt Trump! Glass houses!"

Nope. We told them they fuckin' plan in March that was suggested by health officials and which first gained notoriety in the "Hammer and the Dance" article on Medium. You lockdown decisively for a couple months and flatten the curve not just to keep it below healthcare capacity, but to knock it down on its ass. Then you reopen in phases and adhere to mask wearing, good hygiene, social distancing, etc to keep the R0 in check. If the "Freedumb" base didn't throw a tantrum mid-lockdown (brow beating governors to reopen and the media making people like Shelly Luther into the modern day Rosa Parks), we'd probably be where much of Europe is right now and Trump would cruise to a reelection.

Now governors are trying to compromise with the Freedumbs by allowing reopenings with certain measures, and they don't even want to abide by those measures, like mask wearing and socially distant indoor dining.

Now I hope governors lock down hard again just to spite these fucks. Tired of "the base" getting their way all the time.

[Spurtacular]

Got a theory for you bro.

1280814721772466176

Ask yourself who is promoting reopening and why?

Dude likes to make money like the rest of us. What a scandal.

[midnightpulp]

Dude likes to make money like the rest of us. What a scandal.

But at the expense of the common man. Just elites doing what they do, per par.

[Spurtacular]

But at the expense of the common man. Just elites doing what they do, per par.

Millions will be losing their homes. Millions more will lose their livelihoods. This is all while the media is being very dishonest with us.
I know you need a counter boogeyman; but this reality is not changing.

[ElNono]

Millions will be losing their homes. Millions more will lose their livelihoods.

Hopefully we'll have a government that steps up to the plate to help those in need during these extenuating circumstances. Like the do with businesses.

[boutons_deux]

Hopefully we'll have a government that steps up to the plate to help those in need during these extenuating circumstances. Like the do with businesses.

The Trash/Repug govt? we'll see that they deliver by 1 Aug. I expect they will fuck America over.

McConnell will want many $100Bs for the oligarchy while letting 10Ms of Americans go over the unemployment cliff, as states, cities, and health care run up debts in the many $100Bs, the "fiscal cliff".

The Dems' HEROES Act addressed the above, but McConnell blocks/destroys everything the Dems do, McConnell can't allow anything good to come from the Dems, just like Trash destroys everything that Obama did.

[TimDunkem]

Hopefully we'll have a government that steps up to the plate to help those in need during these extenuating circumstances. Like the do with businesses.

Trumpers and Repugs will say Wal-Mart or McDonald's is hiring. Fuck your needs and go back to work even if you have to sacrifice a loved one to do it. Darrin needs his food and mixers for his drinks!

Don't worry about the Lakers, Peter Luger's, or Shake Shack getting loans, btw.

[TimDunkem]

The Trash/Repug govt? we'll see that they deliver by 1 Aug. I expect they will fuck America over.

McConnell will want many $100Bs for the oligarchy while letting 10Ms of Americans go over the unemployment cliff, as states, cities, and health care run up debts in the many $100Bs, the "fiscal cliff".

The Dems' HEROES Act addressed the above, but McConnell blocks/destroys everything the Dems do, McConnell can't allow anything good to come from the Dems, just like Trash destroys everything that Obama did.

But Repugs say that unemployment that actually helps people means millions aren't going to go back to work. Doesn't matter if they make more than the 600 per week, they won't work, Moscow Mitch and cry babies who whine about not getting theirs said so!

[Spurtacular]

Hopefully we'll have a government that steps up to the plate to help those in need during these extenuating circumstances. Like the do with businesses.

We won't. And :lol that you think the govt. will give a shit.

[RandomGuy]

They all stayed in their poorly ventilated buildings and got sick.

We don't live on top of each other down here.

Compare case and/or death rates of NY and TX.

It's not close.

YET

It's like you don't understand time. NY got its peak earlier.

Do you think the rate will be lower, or higher, after we get our peak?

[RandomGuy]

Texas hits record with 98 new COVID-19 deaths reported

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Texas reported its deadliest day of the pandemic with nearly 100 new deaths on Wednesday as newly confirmed cases continued soaring and Austin began preparations to turn the downtown convention center into a field hospital.

The 98 reported deaths in Texas set a record one-day high, surpassing the record 60 deaths reported a day earlier. Texas is now reporting a total of 2,813 deaths.

The state also reported 9,979 new coronavirus cases Wednesday after hitting a record-high 10,028 new cases the day before. The number of infections is thought to be far higher because many people have not been tested, and studies suggest people can be infected with the virus without feeling sick.

[TimDunkem]

th:lolldren is going to respond to this. :lol

[boutons_deux]

Number of Texans filing unemployment claims increased for second week in a row as 117,244 sought benefits

The claims — an increase of 21.4% compared to the week before —

come as coronavirus infections in the state continue surging and

after Gov. Greg Abbott ordered bars to close and limited restaurant operations.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/09/texas-unemployment-claims-coronavirus/

[Blake]

th:lolldren is going to respond to this. :lol

dur ifr dur

Lololololololol

[pgardn]

I want him to respond to this:

For the 1/100th time, the reason we show so many Cases, compared to other countries that haven’t done nearly as well as we have, is that our TESTING is much bigger and better. We have tested 40,000,000 people. If we did 20,000,000 instead, Cases would be half, etc. NOT REPORTED!

[CosmicCowboy]

Herd immunity may not work. Was talking to my doctor yesterday. She has had several clear cases of covid that tested positive but didnt have any antibodies 6 weeks later when tested.

[TimDunkem]

Herd immunity may not work. Was talking to my doctor yesterday. She has had several clear cases of covid that tested positive but didnt have any antibodies 6 weeks later when tested.

Not surprising given what we know about Coronaviruses but, damn, just 6 weeks?

[TimDunkem]

dur ifr dur

Lololololololol

Bwahahaha Chump is in my head btw hospitalizations flat, just the flu, ifr, shooting 45% on 2s is impressive I was really good in HS believe me Bwahahaha

[pgardn]

Herd immunity may not work. Was talking to my doctor yesterday. She has had several clear cases of covid that tested positive but didnt have any antibodies 6 weeks later when tested.

The thing we have to hope for is that the test only/mostly finds free floating Ab and not the memory cells that have Ab on the surface. Its really a good supply of memory cells reacting quickly that is the most important factor.

Im trying to be optimistic here.

[leemajors]

Damn they teach Japanese in high school now? I'm jealous.

My daughter got two years of it in middle school and one in high school, she loves it. She has about 6 books of kanji

[boutons_deux]

herd immunity requires 60%+ of the herd to have antibodies that actually provide immunity

3M cases in USA out 330M population. 59M MORE infections to go, MINIMUM. :lol

There's no proof that C19 infection provides immunity, and if it does, what level of antibodies is required,

and HOW LONG does the immunity last? weeks, months, years?

ie, people with very mild cases may not have enough antibodies to be immune to re-infection

[SpursforSix]

herd immunity requires 60%+ of the herd to have antibodies that actually provide immunity

3M cases in USA out 330M population. 59M MORE infections to go, MINIMUM. :lol

There's no proof that C19 infection provides immunity, and if it does, what level of antibodies is required,

and HOW LONG does the immunity last? weeks, months, years?

ie, people with very mild cases may not have enough antibodies to be immune to re-infection



So will you be in line to get the vaccine that BigPharma has rushed to get to market?

Serious question and I'm sure you'll ignore it.

[vy65]

This Twitter thread by Eric Topol is exactly what I mean, and this article that he references is an important read. Its schematic at right (see also here) will help make clear that antibody levels are only one aspect of the immune response to the infection – it’s an important one, but we’re making it look even more important than it is because it’s by far the easiest part of the process to measure. The T-cell response (much harder to get good data on) is known to be a key player in viral infections, and is also known to be highly variable, both between different types of pathogens and among individuals themselves. The latter variations are also beginning to be characterized among patients in the current pandemic. We have to get more data on it across a broader population of patients in order to make sense of what we’re seeing.

Many readers will have seen, for example, this new paper from The Lancet on a large study in Spain. Testing tens of thousands of people across the country continues to show that (on average) only about 5% of the population is seropositive (that is, has antibodies to the virus). There are a lot of interesting findings – such as rather large differences in those positive testing rates in different regions of the country, as well as the realization that at least one-third of the people who now test positive never showed any symptoms at all. But we are still not sure if this means that 95% of the Spanish population has never been exposed to the virus, because we don’t know how many people might have cleared it without raising enough of an antibody response to still be detectable. This paper does show that seroprevalence was about 90% in people 14 days after a positive PCR test, which indicates that most people do raise some sort of antibody response, but we don’t know how many of these people will still show such antibodies at later testing dates. Remember the paper discussed in that link in the first paragraph above, which found that 40% of asymptomatic patients went completely seronegative during their convalescence.

In other words, the Spanish survey may appear to show that 95% of the country has not yet been exposed to the coronavirus, but that’s almost certainly not true. The authors do mention that cellular immunity is important and not something that they were able to address, but the combination of that factor plus the apparent dropoff in antibody levels with time makes these large IgG surveys almost impossible to interpret. But note that if there are indeed many people who have been exposed but do not read out in such surveys, that we also have no idea how immune they are to further infection. At a minimum, you’d want to know antibody levels over time, T-cell response over time, and (importantly) what a protective profile looks like for both of those. We barely have insight into any of this: the large-scale data are just a snapshot of antibody levels, and that’s not enough.

We have similar data here in the US: several surveys of IgG antibodies show single-digit seroconversion. You could conclude that we have large numbers of people who have never been exposed – and indeed, the recent upswing in infections in many regions argues that there are plenty of such people out there. But we need to know more. We could have people who look vulnerable but aren’t – perhaps they show no antibodies, but still have a protective T-cell response. Or we could have people who look like they might be protected, but aren’t – perhaps they showed an antibody response many weeks ago that has now declined, and they don’t have protective levels of T-cells to back them up. Across the population, you can use the limited data we have and our limited understanding of it to argue for a uselessly broad range of outcomes. Things could be better than we thought, or worse, getting better or deteriorating in front of our eyes. We just don’t know, and we have to do better at figuring it out.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance

[hater]

So will you be in line to get the vaccine that BigPharma has rushed to get to market?

Serious question and I'm sure you'll ignore it.

No I would not be first in line. I would wait min 6 months or 1 year.

Which means we need to be prepared to distance and masks until summer 2021 at minimum.

I suggest everyone upgrade their masks to N95. I know they are impossible to get here in USA. But you can get the equivalent chinese KN95 or Eurpean i forget the codename.

I just ordered 100 KN95s in amazon.

[vy65]

No I would not be first in line. I would wait min 6 months or 1 year.

Which means we need to be prepared to distance and masks until summer 2021 at minimum.

I suggest everyone upgrade their masks to N95. I know they are impossible to get here in USA. But you can get the equivalent chinese KN95 or Eurpean i forget the codename.

I just ordered 100 KN95s in amazon.

The timetable for vaccines is much longer than other therapeutics. There's an array of treatments in the pipeline, many of which may likely be available in the next months. It's not vaccine or bust - it's treatment or bust. And that timetable is looking much better than that for vaccines.

[baseline bum]

My daughter got two years of it in middle school and one in high school, she loves it. She has about 6 books of kanji

Hah, kanji is such a bastard. I know the 2100-something jouyou kanji and can write them pretty quickly, but I always struggle when I see one like 繋 (in say 繋がり = connection) since it looks like it should be a jouyou kanji from the components, but isn't. If she is still studying kanji she might get a kick out of the うんこ漢字ドリル (unko kanji doriru = poop kanji drill) books that have gotten pretty popular in Japan. Tell me these aren't great example sentences for the 閉 kanji :lol

https://i.ibb.co/tHTrF5y/image.jpg

You guys should check Persona 4 Golden on PC since it has options for playing in full Japanese and it's just a great game anyways. Most of the grammar seems to be JLPT N4 level or easier, though there is plenty of N3 level grammar too. Though there is a lot of N1 and post N1 vocabulary.

[tholdren]

Hah, kanji is such a bastard. I know the 2100-something jouyou kanji and can write them pretty quickly, but I always struggle when I see one like 繋 (in say 繋がり = connection) since it looks like it should be a jouyou kanji from the components, but isn't. If she is still studying kanji she might get a kick out of the うんこ漢字ドリル (unko kanji doriru = poop kanji drill) books that have gotten pretty popular in Japan. Tell me these aren't great example sentences for the 閉 kanji :lol

https://i.ibb.co/tHTrF5y/image.jpg

You guys should check Persona 4 Golden on PC since it has options for playing in full Japanese and it's just a great game anyways. Most of the grammar seems to be JLPT N4 level or easier, though there is plenty of N3 level grammar too. Though there is a lot of N1 and post N1 vocabulary.

Changing subject since less than flu

[hater]

The timetable for vaccines is much longer than other therapeutics. There's an array of treatments in the pipeline, many of which may likely be available in the next months. It's not vaccine or bust - it's treatment or bust. And that timetable is looking much better than that for vaccines.

Even with better therapeutics out I would use a mask on most situations since:
- the hassle of getting sick, go to dr or having your family do that
- costs of the therapeutics
- we still dont know of possible long term damage

Because of that my positions stays

[baseline bum]

Changing subject since less than flu

shut up faggot, adults are talking

[TimDunkem]

Bwahahaha 45% on set 2s impressive

Bwahaha old washed up boomer th:lolldren

Bwahaha pwned by BB

:lmao bwahahaha

[vy65]

Even with better therapeutics out I would use a mask on most situations since:
- the hassle of getting sick, go to dr or having your family do that
- costs of the therapeutics
- we still dont know of possible long term damage

Because of that my positions stays

Fair enough, I was speaking to the timeframe. I think we'll have additional treatments before the end of the year.

[TSA]

YET

It's like you don't understand time. NY got its peak earlier.

Do you think the rate will be lower, or higher, after we get our peak?

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280871099215933441

[tholdren]

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280871099215933441

they do not understand this they only understand headlines.

[boutons_deux]

Austin nears Stage 5 in coronavirus crisis. Here's what that would mean for residents and visitors.

https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/12/75/10/19649031/3/920x920.jpg

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Austin-nears-stage-5-in-coronavirus-crisis-15394187.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mysa_morningheadlines&utm_content=news&stn=nf (https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Austin-nears-stage-5-in-coronavirus-crisis-15394187.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mysa_morningheadlines&utm_content=news&stn=nf)

[RandomGuy]

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280871099215933441

If you are trying to say something with a tweet... my computer can't see it.

Sorry. Use your words. Otherwise whatever little stupid gotcha bullshit your tiny ego is trying for isn't going to work. :lol

[tholdren]

Austin nears Stage 5 in coronavirus crisis. Here's what that would mean for residents and visitors.

https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/12/75/10/19649031/3/920x920.jpg

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Austin-nears-stage-5-in-coronavirus-crisis-15394187.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mysa_morningheadlines&utm_content=news&stn=nf (https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Austin-nears-stage-5-in-coronavirus-crisis-15394187.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mysa_morningheadlines&utm_content=news&stn=nf)

lol this chart.

[tholdren]

Canadian health experts done with lockdown
The current approach to dealing with COVID-19 carries significant risks to overall population health and threatens to increase inequities across the country. Aiming to prevent or contain every case of COVID-19 is simply no longer sustainable at this stage in the pandemic. We need to accept that COVID-19 will be with us for some time and to find ways to deal with it.



The current and proposed measures for reopening will continue to disproportionately impact lower income groups, Black and other racialized groups, recent immigrants to Canada, Indigenous peoples and other populations. And it risks significantly harming our children, particularly the very young, by affecting their development, with life-long consequences in terms of education, skills development, income and overall health.

Canada must work to minimize the impact of COVID-19 by using measures that are practical, effective and compatible with our values and sense of social justice. We need to focus on preventing deaths and serious illness by protecting the vulnerable while enabling society to function and thrive.



Elimination of COVID-19 is not a practical objective for Canada until we have a vaccine. While there is hope for a vaccine to be developed soon, we must be realistic about the time it will actually take to develop and evaluate it and then deliver an immunization campaign covering the entire population. We cannot sustain universal control measures indefinitely.



We need to accept that there will be cases and outbreaks of COVID-19. We need localized control measures that are risk-based. We should consistently reassess quarantine and isolation periods, recommendations for physical distancing and non-medical masks, and travel restrictions based on current best evidence and levels of risk.

At the same time we must improve infection prevention and control in long-term care and congregate living settings. We should provide support for people living in the community who need to or choose to isolate when the disease is active, as well as those who have been adversely affected by COVID-19, or the consequences of the public health measures.

Canadians have developed a fear of COVID-19. Going forward, they have to be supported in understanding their true level of risk, and learning how to deal with this disease, while getting on with their lives – back to work, back to school, and back to healthy lives and vibrant, active communities across this country.

We acknowledge the heroic work that has been done in recent months by many across all levels of government and the public and private sector, and the sacrifices that Canadians have made to get to this stage. As we look forward, Canada must balance its response to COVID-19.

[TimDunkem]

Bwahahaha copy and paste copy and paste F5F5F5F5F5

Bwahahaha can't think for himself :lmao

[RandomGuy]

[some tweet I can't see, and quite frankly don't really care enough to bother finding]

Most models show Texas doubling the total fatalities before the end of the month. The most pessimistic have it quadrupling. Personally I think that is a bit too pessimistic. Given the lag between fatalities and case counts, I would say we pass 10,000 next month. Early to mid month.

Splits is better at forecasting though.

[tholdren]

Bwahahaha copy and paste copy and paste F5F5F5F5F5

Bwahahaha can't think for himself :lmao

I'm just posting facts.

Fact Canada doctors agree with trump. That makes you want to cry.

[TimDunkem]

Bwahahaha peaked in highschool with layups, 45% set 2s, and granny freethrows

Bwahaha Scrubdren :lmao

[tholdren]

Most models show Texas doubling the total fatalities before the end of the month. The most pessimistic have it quadrupling. Personally I think that is a bit too pessimistic. Given the lag between fatalities and case counts, I would say we pass 10,000 next month. Early to mid month.

Splits is better at forecasting though.

bwahahahhahahahhahajahahajhaha

[TimDunkem]

Bwahaha Scrubdren was bad at basketball

Bwahaha only thing worse is his math

Bwahaha 45% on set 2s skilllllllllllzzzz :lmao

Bwahaha Grandpa

[TSA]

YET

It's like you don't understand time. NY got its peak earlier.

Do you think the rate will be lower, or higher, after we get our peak?

peak NY: 51 deaths/day/mm
7 day MA
TX: 1.43
FL: 2.25
CA: 1.69

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcaG718U4AU5_01?format=jpg&name=small

consider what that means. at current rates, it would take texas 36 days of deaths to equal the one peak day in NY.

texas is 2.8% of that level.
florida is 4.4% of that level
california is 3.3% of that level.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcaIRcgUcAcEJaU?format=jpg&name=small

[TSA]

Most models show Texas doubling the total fatalities before the end of the month. The most pessimistic have it quadrupling. Personally I think that is a bit too pessimistic. Given the lag between fatalities and case counts, I would say we pass 10,000 next month. Early to mid month.

Splits is better at forecasting though.

If you quoted me you saw the link for the tweet which you could have easily copy/pasted to view.

[ElNono]

We won't. And :lol that you think the govt. will give a shit.

I was pointing out that blaming the victims because Congress is abdicating it's responsibilities is an inherently flawed argument.

It's not the people's fault that they want to avoid illness and death, it's a pretty natural reaction. Especially during an health emergency like this one.

Government can't claim it's not aware or that it doesn't have the tools to help in this situation when they do it for companies but not for people.

[hater]

Even with better therapeutics out I would use a mask on most situations since:
- the hassle of getting sick, go to dr or having your family do that
- costs of the therapeutics
- we still dont know of possible long term damage

Because of that my positions stays

Called it

From the guardian

One coronavirus patient described in the paper, a 55-year-old woman with no history of psychiatric illness, began to behave oddly the day after she was discharged from hospital.

She repeatedly put her coat on and took it off again and began to hallucinate, reporting that she saw monkeys and lions in her house. She was readmitted to hospital and gradually improved on antipsychotic medication.

Another woman, aged 47, was admitted to hospital with a headache and numbness in her right hand a week after a cough and fever came on. She later became drowsy and unresponsive and required an emergency operation to remove part of her skull to relieve pressure on her swollen brain.

“We want clinicians around the world to be alert to these complications of coronavirus,” Zandi said. He urged physicians, GPs and healthcare workers with patients with cognitive symptoms, memory problems, fatigue, numbness, or weakness, to discuss the case with neurologists

[SnakeBoy]

Called it

From the guardian

One coronavirus patient described in the paper, a 55-year-old woman with no history of psychiatric illness, began to behave oddly the day after she was discharged from hospital.

She repeatedly put her coat on and took it off again and began to hallucinate, reporting that she saw monkeys and lions in her house. She was readmitted to hospital and gradually improved on antipsychotic medication.

Another woman, aged 47, was admitted to hospital with a headache and numbness in her right hand a week after a cough and fever came on. She later became drowsy and unresponsive and required an emergency operation to remove part of her skull to relieve pressure on her swollen brain.

“We want clinicians around the world to be alert to these complications of coronavirus,” Zandi said. He urged physicians, GPs and healthcare workers with patients with cognitive symptoms, memory problems, fatigue, numbness, or weakness, to discuss the case with neurologists

I still get occasional bouts of extremely mild peripheral neuropathy so I do think the neurological effects linger for quite a while. Haven't seen any monkeys yet but I'll keep a eye out. I did see a mountain lion but my neighbors have seen him too so pretty sure he's real.

[Blake]

I'm just posting facts.

Fact Canada doctors agree with trump. That makes you want to cry.

Gossip

[RandomGuy]

If you quoted me you saw the link for the tweet which you could have easily copy/pasted to view.

I think I have some broswer extension that keeps twitter from displaying. Not sure what. Don't use the platform, and don't care to.

As I said before, I don't care enough to do anything that requires effort. My turn to be lazy.

[RandomGuy]

I still get occasional bouts of extremely mild peripheral neuropathy so I do think the neurological effects linger for quite a while. Haven't seen any monkeys yet but I'll keep a eye out. I did see a mountain lion but my neighbors have seen him too so pretty sure he's real.

Jibes with what the CNN financial reporter said. "clumsy" was what he called it.

[RandomGuy]

peak NY: 51 deaths/day/mm
7 day MA
TX: 1.43
FL: 2.25
CA: 1.69

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcaG718U4AU5_01?format=jpg&name=small

consider what that means. at current rates, it would take texas 36 days of deaths to equal the one peak day in NY.

texas is 2.8% of that level.
florida is 4.4% of that level
california is 3.3% of that level.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcaIRcgUcAcEJaU?format=jpg&name=small

Deaths are driven by sheer number of infected, and lag behind infections by some period, two weeks to a month.

Texas case rates have doubled, so expect that rate to double as well.

Four doublings... you have matched (roughly) NY's rate.

Since June 14 we have doubled our daily new confirmed case rate twice, and lo and behold the daily fatality rate has started moving up.

Again, I don't see why this is hard for you.

(edit) Our one saving grace is that we have learned a lot about treating it. I doubt we will see the fatality rate as high as it was for NY for that reason.

[TSA]

Deaths are driven by sheer number of infected, and lag behind infections by some period, two weeks to a month.

Texas case rates have doubled, so expect that rate to double as well.

Four doublings... you have matched NY's rate.

Since June 14 we have doubled our daily new confirmed case rate twice, and lo and behold the daily fatality rate has started moving up.

Again, I don't see why this is hard for you.

Texas won't be the next New York. No other state will be the next New York. Again, I don't see why this is hard for you.

[Splits]

Yo Splits (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=24583), see if you can project Texas. You nailed NY and NJ.

Ramp to 225 deaths/day by end July, continuing to escalate to a peak of around 450/day by latter part of August, plateauing there for who knows how long, at least several weeks. ~10k Texans dead by end-August.

[RandomGuy]

Texas won't be the next New York. No other state will be the next New York. Again, I don't see why this is hard for you.

Assuming our health care system doesn't get overwhelmed. I am reasonably confidant we are on that trajectory. Our state government is fucking up just like New Yorks did by not taking it fully seriously enough fast enough. Being able to treat effectively is contingent on enough health care resources to do so, which I think will not be the case next week.

[RandomGuy]

Ramp to 225 deaths/day by end July, continuing to escalate to a peak of around 450/day by latter part of August, plateauing there for who knows how long, at least several weeks. ~10k Texans dead by end-August.

So your projections are that Texas will get overwhelmed.

Texas has 1.5 times the population of New York, so 225/day assumes that the rate will be about three times worse than that of NY per capita.

:spless: :grim:

[tholdren]

Deaths are driven by sheer number of infected, and lag behind infections by some period, two weeks to a month.

Texas case rates have doubled, so expect that rate to double as well.

Four doublings... you have matched (roughly) NY's rate.

Since June 14 we have doubled our daily new confirmed case rate twice, and lo and behold the daily fatality rate has started moving up.

Again, I don't see why this is hard for you.

(edit) Our one saving grace is that we have learned a lot about treating it. I doubt we will see the fatality rate as high as it was for NY for that reason.

Cases dont mean new infections. Nor do hospitalizations equate to death nor does it even mean a true stay in a hospital nor does it mean someone came in severely enough to be treated in icu for covid.


You dont understand how the data is calculated thats why every time a state has an increase in cases you tell everyone to bring in the ships.

You've said 2 weeks for months. You are terrible at math science and logic

[Blake]

Cases dont mean new infections. Nor do hospitalizations equate to death nor does it even mean a true stay in a hospital nor does it mean someone came in severely enough to be treated in icu for covid.

Nobody impled those things. You're terrible at reading and at getting away with lying.

[Splits]

So your projections are that Texas will get overwhelmed.

Texas has 1.5 times the population of New York, so 225/day assumes that the rate will be about three times worse than that of NY per capita.

:spless: :grim:

Not sure how you came to that conclusion based on my numbers. NY peaked at 1k deaths per day. I think the TX case fatality rate will be 1/3-1/2 of NY.

[RandomGuy]

Not sure how you came to that conclusion based on my numbers. NY peaked at 1k deaths per day. I think the TX case fatality rate will be 1/3-1/2 of NY.

My mistake:

The deaths per million rate from TSA's post was confused with the raw number. Have a lot going on at my end. Not good trying to multitask.

[baseline bum]

(from tweet)

consider what that means. at current rates, it would take texas 36 days of deaths to equal the one peak day in NY.

Wow using no growth to project something that is likely to grow exponentially? I don't think we'll get as bad as NYC since we don't jam ourselves into public transportation so heavily but I wouldn't completely throw out the idea since Abbott still hasn't shut down indoor dining rooms, indoor church service, and indoor gyms which are all prime locations for transmission, and I'm not sure he ever will no matter how bad things get here.

[TimDunkem]

All bets are off if the country as a whole eventually hits 100k infections a day.

[hater]

All bets are off if the country as a whole eventually hits 100k infections a day.

You think all bets are not off at 60k a day? :lmao

[TimDunkem]

You think all bets are not off at 60k a day? :lmao

Not as much as the seemingly inevitable 100k a day, tbh. :(

[Death In June]

Its gotten bad here in the Rio Grande Valley. Tripled our cases overnight. All of our vents are in use. Our hospitals full. Our mobile units full. People are now starting to die. Anyone downplaying the impact of a COVID hot zone is uninformed or deliberately lying.

[ChumpDumper]

Its gotten bad here in the Rio Grande Valley. Tripled our cases overnight. All of our vents are in use. Our hospitals full. Our mobile units full. People are now starting to die. Anyone downplaying the impact of a COVID hot zone is uninformed or deliberately lying.I lived in Brownsville for a hot minute. People don't realize there's over a million people because they're spread out over three counties. Hope it gets better soon.

[CosmicCowboy]

Texas had time to realize nursing homes had to be strenuously tested/protected. De Blasio did the opposite and seeded nursing homes with covid+ spreaders. We wont reach New York death rates but the dead will be younger.

[ChumpDumper]

Texas had time to realize nursing homes had to be strenuously tested/protected. De Blasio did the opposite and seeded nursing homes with covid+ spreaders. We wont reach New York death rates but the dead will be younger.Eh, if the hospitals ever got to the same point as NY/NJ we could just as easily dump off the elderly or let them die per Arizona triage rules. I'm hoping we don't reach death panel levels.

[Nbadan]

You can't compare what happened in NY to what is happening today in Florida.....testing was woeful by the Federal government during NY's worst outbreak. In Florida, DeSantis has just let the Rona spread with inadequate contact tracing and lifting banns on restrictions to quickly.

[TSA]

You can't compare what happened in NY to what is happening today in Florida.....testing was woeful by the Federal government during NY's worst outbreak. In Florida, DeSantis has just let the Rona spread with inadequate contact tracing and lifting banns on restrictions to quickly.

And yet Florida has a higher population of elderly at risk people and their death rate is far below NY. You’re right, you can’t compare them :lol

[ChumpDumper]

Holy shit Hidalgo County's numbers today. Amazing what you find when you actually test.

[tholdren]

All bets are off if the country as a whole eventually hits 100k infections a day.

You're definitely getting it again arent you...?

[TimDunkem]

Bwahaha 45% set shot 2s

Bwahaha only thing worse than your skills is your math

Bwahahaha grandpa tholdren on the internet telling stories in his bunker :lmao

[tholdren]

Bwahaha 45% set shot 2s

Bwahaha only thing worse than your skills is your math

Bwahahaha grandpa tholdren on the internet telling stories in his bunker :lmao

so you have it now, or are you waiting 2 weeks to have it again?

[TimDunkem]

Bwahaha F5F5F5F5F5

Bwahaha sounds of the keyboard clacking in the bunker

Bwahaha doesn't understand math

Bwahaha could barely shoot set shot 2s. 45% much skillllzz :lmao grandpadren

[DMC]

My mistake:

The deaths per million rate from TSA's post was confused with the raw number. Have a lot going on at my end. Not good trying to multitask.

Stick to single-digit ciphering, Jethro

[Spurtacular]

I was pointing out that blaming the victims because Congress is abdicating it's responsibilities is an inherently flawed argument.

It's not the people's fault that they want to avoid illness and death, it's a pretty natural reaction. Especially during an health emergency like this one.

Government can't claim it's not aware or that it doesn't have the tools to help in this situation when they do it for companies but not for people.

The government sells utter calamity. It's what they do. If you think it's cos they're concerned, you simply don't understand the forces at play.

[pgardn]

The government sells utter calamity. It's what they do. If you think it's cos they're concerned, you simply don't understand the forces at play.

They are US fucktard.
Change it.
You are doing a perfectly awful job on this board 9-11 truther.

[ElNono]

The government sells utter calamity. It's what they do. If you think it's cos they're concerned, you simply don't understand the forces at play.

I understand I can pretty much dismiss any claims of mysterious "forces at play" right off the bat, since you're not very good at explaining your own conspiracy theories, tbh. Plus it's a distraction.

It's not the government in and of itself that's bad, it actually should have a major role to play in emergencies and catastrophes

It's this particular iteration of federal government leadership (both Congress and POTUS, Democrat and Republicans) whose continued inaction are causing significant damage.

[baseline bum]

Holy shit Hidalgo County's numbers today. Amazing what you find when you actually test.

God that's 3x worse than us per capita and we're a dumpster fire right now in Bexar County.

[SnakeBoy]

Jibes with what the CNN financial reporter said. "clumsy" was what he called it.

Luckily I never had anything that significant. At it's worst when I was sick it was just a tingling/burning in my hands/forearms, kind of like a combination of having your hand fall asleep and having a mild sunburn at the same time. Now when it happens it's so mild I can't even notice it unless I'm just sitting still.

[ChumpDumper]

God that's 3x worse than us per capita and we're a dumpster fire right now in Bexar County.I know they opened a big testing center in their arena near the border. Looking around for the positivity rate. The hospitals are leasing portable buildings from the McAllen school district in anticipation of use for patients and medical personnel are being imported from elsewhere like NY/NJ earlier. Hopefully today's death count was an aberration.

[Spurtacular]

They are US fucktard.
Change it.
You are doing a perfectly awful job on this board 9-11 truther.

Truther is not a putdown.

[Spurtacular]

I understand I can pretty much dismiss any claims of mysterious "forces at play" right off the bat, since you're not very good at explaining your own conspiracy theories, tbh. Plus it's a distraction.

It's not the government in and of itself that's bad, it actually should have a major role to play in emergencies and catastrophes

It's this particular iteration of federal government leadership (both Congress and POTUS, Democrat and Republicans) whose continued inaction are causing significant damage.

You don't understand forces at play or don't want to understand.
I'd be doing you a disservice if I said otherwise.

[midnightpulp]

You don't understand forces at play or don't want to understand.
I'd be doing you a disservice if I said otherwise.

Koch brothers and their lackeys forcing people back into low paying jobs to juice the stock market?

[Blake]

The government sells utter calamity. It's what they do. If you think it's cos they're concerned, you simply don't understand the forces at play.

Lol "you simply don't understand the forces at play"

[Blake]

Truther is not a putdown.

:lol it absolutely is

[ChumpDumper]

You don't understand forces at playApparently you want to keep them secret.

[Spurtacular]

:lol it absolutely is

:lmao Cuckold is

Why do you keep thinking you have hand?

[Spurtacular]

Koch brothers and their lackeys forcing people back into low paying jobs to juice the stock market?

Yea, isn't it funny how Chumpettes think they understand those devious forces at play and then somehow deny the other forces at play. :lol

[pgardn]

Truther is not a putdown.

[Spurtacular]

Truther is not a putdown.

[ChumpDumper]

Truther is not a putdown.

[pgardn]

Truther means I am a gadfly without credentials.

[Spurtacular]

Less Than Blake unhinged.

[pgardn]

Spurtacular proclaims liberty over his parents by ripping his diaper off.

The MAN....

[ElNono]

You don't understand forces at play or don't want to understand.
I'd be doing you a disservice if I said otherwise.

This is like tholdren's math, as soon as I ask you to support your theory, you'll start with the "come to terms", you'll get angry that somebody disagrees, attack me personally, and fold. So why even go there? We already know how this ends, and it's a conversation killer.

Plus you already know I understand the political landscape. The lobbyists, the media, the politicos, the virus, the administration... that's the forces at play.

And let's be frank here, if the administration wanted to test your hoax theory, it would be incredibly easy for them, and if it was indeed a hoax, they'll be completely vindicated and they have every incentive to do so, considering it's an election year. POTUS only has to write a few executive orders, and he has a very happy DOJ to ensure enforcement.

Even if we were to argue that the number of deaths should be half of what they are, they would still be above the number of casualties on the Vietnam war, in a little over 6 months. And really, it's not the people, Congress, the administration or media's fault that this virus showed up.

However, how all those parts have responded to the challenge certainly is. And what I was pointing out, is that there's a lot of blame to go around. Especially those that have the resources to really help.

[Spurtacular]

Plus you already know I understand the political landscape. The lobbyists, the media, the politicos, the virus, the administration... that's the forces at play.

You know of them. You regularly demonstrate a willful naivete of how they operate though.

[Spurtacular]

And let's be frank here, if the administration wanted to test your hoax theory, it would be incredibly easy for them, and if it was indeed a hoax, they'll be completely vindicated and they have every incentive to do so, considering it's an election year. POTUS only has to write a few executive orders, and he has a very happy DOJ to ensure enforcement.

Sure. If the world operated at face value like you pretend it does (when it's convenient for you to do so).

[ElNono]

You know of them. You regularly demonstrate a willful naivete of how they operate though.

I disagree.


Sure. If the world operated at face value like you pretend it does (when it's convenient for you to do so).

Tell me what's preventing POTUS from taking that route. What mysterious "forces at play" are there in that particular area.

[Spurtacular]

Tell me what's preventing POTUS from taking that route. What mysterious "forces at play" are there in that particular area.
Taking what route?

[boutons_deux]

Poll: Texans less concerned about coronavirus than at the start of the pandemic even as cases rise

Most Texans are not concerned about contracting the coronavirus even as cases surge in the Lone Star State,

only 47 percent said they were extremely or very concerned about community spread of the virus,

a 7 percent drop from April, when 54 percent of Texans said they had heightened concerns.

In June, 26 percent of people were somewhat concerned and

another 26 percent were either not very or not at all concerned.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Poll-Texans-less-concerned-about-COVID-19-as-15394265.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mysa_morningheadlines&utm_content=news&stn=nf

No doubt these right-wing sheeple actually, lazily believe, are influenced by Repug assholes that they elected as their ignorant primary source of guidance, rather than informing themselves from a variety of sources.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&casesMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&country=USA~CAN~DNK~FRA~ITA~NOR~ESP~BEL~FIN~DEU~JP N~KOR&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

[ElNono]

Taking what route?



POTUS only has to write a few executive orders, and he has a very happy DOJ to ensure enforcement.

I mean, it's all a hoax right? Once everything opens back up, no more record infections and deaths, and the gig is up...

[boutons_deux]

'Did everything wrong':

2 stand-up comedians test positive for COVID-19 after San Antonio shows

https://www.mysanantonio.com/coronavirus/article/Did-everything-wrong-2-stand-up-comedians-test-15397676.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mysa_morningheadlines&utm_content=news&stn=nf

[TimDunkem]

Even Abbott is now admitting that next week is likely going to be even worse. :lmao

[hater]

Even Abbott is now admitting that next week is likely going to be even worse. :lmao

No shit

So much unecessary death/incapacitation

Especially given the many promising vaccines/treatments coming through next year

Most of these folks didnt need to die/be incapacitated

[Spurtacular]

I mean, it's all a hoax right? Once everything opens back up, no more record infections and deaths, and the gig is up...

Yea, he writes an executive order and they stop producing phony case #'s and death counts? I don't think so.

[RandomGuy]

And yet Florida has a higher population of elderly at risk people and their death rate is far below NY. You’re right, you can’t compare them :lol

New Yorks data is more mature. Will Florida's rate go up or down as their dataset from the most recent infections matures?

It's like you don't understand reporting lags, or the passage of time.

[RandomGuy]

Poll: Texans less concerned about coronavirus than at the start of the pandemic even as cases rise

Most Texans are not concerned about contracting the coronavirus even as cases surge in the Lone Star State,

only 47 percent said they were extremely or very concerned about community spread of the virus,

a 7 percent drop from April, when 54 percent of Texans said they had heightened concerns.

In June, 26 percent of people were somewhat concerned and

another 26 percent were either not very or not at all concerned.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Poll-Texans-less-concerned-about-COVID-19-as-15394265.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mysa_morningheadlines&utm_content=news&stn=nf

No doubt these right-wing sheeple actually, lazily believe, are influenced by Repug assholes that they elected as their ignorant primary source of guidance, rather than informing themselves from a variety of sources.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&casesMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&country=USA~CAN~DNK~FRA~ITA~NOR~ESP~BEL~FIN~DEU~JP N~KOR&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc




If we don't stop it, Texas will end up worse than New York. it wil spread far more widely and be a lot harder to control. Church incubators will make sure it spreads among the gullible.

[DarrinS]

If we don't stop it, Texas will end up worse than New York. it wil spread far more widely and be a lot harder to control. Church incubators will make sure it spreads among the gullible.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

[RandomGuy]

I think the TX case fatality rate will be 1/3-1/2 of NY.

I will guess it will get a lot closer than that. We may have better treatments and for now it is younger people getting it, but those young people will transmit it to older demographics as it gets more and more widespread.

The sheer number of trrump cultists here will mean a lot more infected overall.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

New Yorks data is more mature. Will Florida's rate go up or down as their dataset from the most recent infections matures?

It's like you don't understand reporting lags, or the passage of time.

[DarrinS]

New Yorks data is more mature. Will Florida's rate go up or down as their dataset from the most recent infections matures?

It's like you don't understand reporting lags, or the passage of time.


Let me know when we catch up to NY

[RandomGuy]

Let me know when we catch up to NY

Not really an answer to my question.

It will take months before we know how many are dying this week or last week.

It's like being shown to be wrong here, repeatedly, hasn't taught you anything. smh

[TSA]

New Yorks data is more mature. Will Florida's rate go up or down as their dataset from the most recent infections matures?

It's like you don't understand reporting lags, or the passage of time.

Current trends in Florida show a significant increase in percent positive test results in recent weeks. Florida has significantly increased the amount of testing. The average age of infection has dropped substantially and there is clear evidence that younger people who are much lower risk of death from COVID-19 are out and about.

This second wave of infections is likely similar in magnitude to the initial outbreak in March, but early testing was limited, so this can be inferred by secondary analysis using our COVID Decision Model. We take close look at the current data and evaluate outcome trends in Florida. Our model is well suited for modeling dynamic heterogeneous effects, especially those based on age demographics. Note that data reporting is delayed, and as such, the model may deviate somewhat from updated data. We have modeled a range of scenarios to assess long term outcomes.

We reference the Florida Department of Public Health for statistics. We present the model results for five scenarios. The details of each case study are presented at the bottom of this post.

We make several observations:

People are modulating their connectivity in proportion to their risk.
Infections are up, but deaths will continue to decline.
The Infection Fatality Rate is declining rapidly and approaching flu like levels.
The second wave will rapidly decline over the summer and the virus is likely to die out without the need for vaccine if behavior continues to be modulated by risk.
Florida is doing a good job protecting a large population of elderly vulnerable people.

Despite the criticisms from many seeking to create panic, the people of Florida offer a great example the path forward for COVID-19 mitigation. As the population organically loosens up by age demographic where risks are low, the infection is essentially working through those populations and burning itself out.

From a public policy perspective, it is imperative to educate people to their actual risks so that those who are vulnerable can minimize risky interactions. It is important to continue to protect the vulnerable people who can’t protect themselves in institutions or are under the care. Younger people should continue to minimize potentially infectious contact with vulnerable populations. Good hygiene should continue to be encouraged, including hand washing and wearing masks in close quarter indoors.

This recovery approach provides the best balance of economic recovery and public health.

The Florida Second Wave Model

We have an increase in infections that are likely resulting from an overall increase in connectivity proportional to age (younger people dropping social distancing norms). The loosening of stay at home orders in mid May and widespread civil protests after Memorial Day both contributed to this increased connectivity. This increased social contact for younger demographics has caused a large spike in infections. Death rates resulting from these infections will be very low.

We have modeled a heterogeneous shift in behavior by age group, proportional to actual individual risk. We assess five scenarios to understand the nature of this second infection wave in Florida and a range of outcomes over time. A simulation population of 2 million agents is scaled to the 21.4 million in presented results.

Case 1 assumes modest social distancing and reduced connectivity in proportion to risk (age). This case best matches the current data trends.
Case 2 is the same as Case 1 with incrementally more increased contact.
Case 3 is the same as Case 2 with significantly increased contact going forward. This is not likely a realistic scenario.
Case 4 is similar to Case 1, with reduced contact in July and then increased contact similar to Case 2 from August onward.
Case 5 is light switch to show a worst case and is presented for reference. This is not a realistic scenario.

Case 1, 2 and 3 are representative of likely scenarios. Death and infection trends for these scenarios are presented below. Death curves are well matched to the existing trends. The infections rate shows a clear second hump due to the age stratified increase in mobility (younger cohorts are more mobile) and matches current % positive test trends. We also show the due to the younger distribution of infections, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) has dropped from an initial value of 0.5% to less than 0.2%.

https://covidplanningtools.com/florida-second-wave-analysis/

data at link....don't be lazy again.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Translation:

"According to this data from two months ago, everything is fine in Texas"

That is what you are saying here.

Do you understand that?

[TimDunkem]

Not really an answer to my question.

It will take months before we know how many are dying this week or last week.

It's like being shown to be wrong here, repeatedly, hasn't taught you anything. smh
First it's "nothing", then "the flu", then "I'm not scared", then "I'm still going to the bar", followed by "I don't need a mask", then "It won't get bad here", next was "there are plenty of beds", NOW it's "let me know when we're NY", next will be "well, at least it isn't millions of deaths".

[boutons_deux]

How Two Waves of Coronavirus Cases Swept Through the Texas Panhandlehttps://www.newyorker.com/magazine/dispatch/how-two-waves-of-coronavirus-cases-swept-through-the-texas-panhandle (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/dispatch/how-two-waves-of-coronavirus-cases-swept-through-the-texas-panhandle?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_071020&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&bxid=5bd6795524c17c1048022fcc&cndid=43758549&hasha=992d608214b505003aa04bf10a595031&hashb=542eb31d958e85ddd5a4c3ccf3faae18526a77bd&hashc=54b3612ab970ce13a64a16665b1987080ca5b72e2ee7 62b722fbba6ab378f2f5&esrc=bounceX&utm_term=TNY_Daily)

[ElNono]

Yea, he writes an executive order and they stop producing phony case #'s and death counts? I don't think so.

He can certainly write an executive order outlawing lockdowns and re-opening schools. That's right within his alley.

Plus this reporting you're alluding, is published by the CDC, which is run by the fucking Executive.

[boutons_deux]

the CDC, which is run by the fucking Executive.

run by Trash's sycophants who are at war with the CDC professionals

I expect Trash's FDA sycophants will rush through an under-tested so-called vaccine ASAP so Trash can boast about HIS vaccine.

[Spurtacular]

He can certainly write an executive order outlawing lockdowns and re-opening schools. That's right within his alley.

Plus this reporting you're alluding, is published by the CDC, which is run by the fucking Executive.

He could; but then anything and everything that "goes bad" will be blamed on him.

Your suggestion is really a non-starter.

[ChumpDumper]

He could; but then anything and everything that "goes bad" will be blamed on him.

Your suggestion is really a non-starter.God forbid the President of the United States be responsible for anything he does.

Do you ever think about what you post?

[Spurtacular]

God forbid the President of the United States be responsible for anything he does.

Do you ever think about what you post?

God forbid the Congress do their job. They're the ones who should be passing such protections, dip shit.

[ChumpDumper]

God forbid the Congress do their job. They're the ones who should be passing such protections, dip shit.Should Trump be held responsible for anything he has done or failed to do as POTUS?

Yes or no.

[ElNono]

He could; but then anything and everything that "goes bad" will be blamed on him.

Your suggestion is really a non-starter.

What do you mean, "goes bad"? This is a hoax, isn't it? What could possibly go bad? lol

[ElNono]

God forbid the Congress do their job. They're the ones who should be passing such protections, dip shit.

I agree that Congress is MIA in all this, tbh

[Spurtacular]

I agree that Congress is MIA in all this, tbh

I think executive order power is abused. Trump has been no exception. Though I haven't monitored it closely enough to know if it's been worse than Bush/Bama.
My guess would be no.

Frankly, all the legislatures at national, state, local have been MIA. It's sad watching America devolve. We fought for our republican values; and they're being trampled on.

[Spurtacular]

What do you mean, "goes bad"? This is a hoax, isn't it? What could possibly go bad? lol

A giant hoax. But whatever pretend deaths from COVID would still be pinned on him. Not that loons like RandomCuck aren't doing that, anyways.
But there would be more traction.

[Spurtacular]

Should Trump be held responsible for anything he has done or failed to do as POTUS?

Yes or no.

Did Obama rape Americans?

Yes or no.

[ElNono]

A giant hoax. But whatever pretend deaths from COVID would still be pinned on him. Not that loons like RandomCuck aren't doing that, anyways.
But there would be more traction.

There's nothing 'pretend' if people are actually dying. And we clearly have much more deaths than any other given year.

Unless you're advancing that the CIA is going out there and killing people (which would be even more absurd), there's really no argument this virus kills a lot of people.

At this point, the hoax argument is simply retarded. You can argue whether the virus deserves the level of attention it has been given, but being in denial this is a major health emergency is just crazy talk.

[ElNono]

I think executive order power is abused. Trump has been no exception. Though I haven't monitored it closely enough to know if it's been worse than Bush/Bama.
My guess would be no.

Frankly, all the legislatures at national, state, local have been MIA. It's sad watching America devolve. We fought for our republican values; and they're being trampled on.

I largely agree that the executive has grown an inordinate amount of power, but the reality here is that people are dying, and Congress isn't moving.

Leaders that have the tools to do something about it should act, IMO. Again, these are not normal times, this is a state of emergency.

This guy didn't ask for permission to go bomb Soleimani. This is much more important and affects American lives.