2025 NBA Draft

[Dejounte]

Wemby needs a big wing at the 4 so he is always matched up with the other teams big man. I would personally would trade this pick for Keegan to fill that role. But they would likely revisit KD and Markannen trade in the offseason to fill that spot. Markannen value is way down and if UTA does not win the top 4 spots then a trade demand is going to be more likely. There is little value for us in this draft with lack of wings on our range.

This scenario that you bring up is easy to scheme against. They’d just play zone defense or clog the paint if Wemby even decides to drive to the hoop. Wemby takes up so much space when he’s dribbling that any idea of playing inside-out offense with him as the ball handler loses its effectiveness because the nearest player only needs to take a few steps to double Wemby. Wemby benefits more from having cutters on his team than 3 pt shooters. We’ve also seen that Wemby likes to do a touch pass to Sochan in the paint. If we have a tweener C as our PF, the opposing PF or wing on our PF would lose any rebounding advantage, even if it was a big man assigned to our C.

We have enough evidence to see that the current setup doesn’t work with a big wing defensively and rebound-wise. We’ve even seen a setup with a shooting PF in Barnes. Neither work in the grand scheme of things. Last season was used to see what works and what doesn’t work.

[Hoy!]

This scenario that you bring up is easy to scheme against. They’d just play zone defense or clog the paint if Wemby even decides to drive to the hoop. Wemby takes up so much space when he’s dribbling that any idea of playing inside-out offense with him as the ball handler loses its effectiveness because the nearest player only needs to take a few steps to double Wemby. Wemby benefits more from having cutters on his team than 3 pt shooters. We’ve also seen that Wemby likes to do a touch pass to Sochan in the paint. If we have a tweener C as our PF, the opposing PF or wing on our PF would lose any rebounding advantage, even if it was a big man assigned to our C.

We have enough evidence to see that the current setup doesn’t work with a big wing defensively and rebound-wise. We’ve even seen a setup with a shooting PF in Barnes. Neither work in the grand scheme of things. Last season was used to see what works and what doesn’t work.


Convincing. I agree. We need centers because Wemby is a part time center, he wants to play like a wing or forward. Maybe Derik Queen and some one like Adams(but younger) is synergic and adds diversity to our team.

[Hoy!]

This scenario that you bring up is easy to scheme against. They’d just play zone defense or clog the paint if Wemby even decides to drive to the hoop. Wemby takes up so much space when he’s dribbling that any idea of playing inside-out offense with him as the ball handler loses its effectiveness because the nearest player only needs to take a few steps to double Wemby. Wemby benefits more from having cutters on his team than 3 pt shooters. We’ve also seen that Wemby likes to do a touch pass to Sochan in the paint. If we have a tweener C as our PF, the opposing PF or wing on our PF would lose any rebounding advantage, even if it was a big man assigned to our C.

We have enough evidence to see that the current setup doesn’t work with a big wing defensively and rebound-wise. We’ve even seen a setup with a shooting PF in Barnes. Neither work in the grand scheme of things. Last season was used to see what works and what doesn’t work.


Convincing. I agree. We need centers because Wemby is a part time center, he wants to play like a wing or forward. Maybe Derik Queen and some one like Adams(but younger) is synergic and adds diversity to our team.

[benefactor]

Why do you think Fleming is any different? He's probably just as dumb as most of our role players.
I'm agreeing with you. You should reread my post. I'm team Kon all the way. Taking a flier on Fleming with the second pick is fine. It's a crapshoot at that point anyway

[stnick2261]

Imo, we have to deal with the coaching situation before the draft night.
Whoever we draft needs to be in line with whatever the next coach's philosophy is.
Wemby can play with anyone, but not every coach would want a non-shooting PF, even if Wemby becomes KAT 2.0 from 3pt.

The coaching situation is very important. Like Jenkins (for instance): Whether he goes with the modern "Read&React" offense he had this year or the "5-Out" offense he had under Bud, he'll want a PF with range added to the team.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Dejounte's analysis about our need of a big staying inside the paint for rebounding? For offensive rebounding? To me, offensive rebounding is not as important as floor spacing

To me, Fleming is almost as big as Sorber and will be equal defensive rebounder. Plus, we can defend the 3.

The comparison to Blake is flawed. Blake cannot shoot 3s. Role players don't need to hold the ball or process the scheme too much. They just need to catch and shoot, cut, defend

[exstatic]

you just said it yourself “scouting wasn’t as good back then”. But it’s much better now and he didn’t get picked up by a better program in three years during the era you recognize as one with better scouting. That should tell you everything you need to know

NBA scouting, not college. Colleges miss guys all the time, because there are thousands or even tens of thousands of high schools. Guys get missed, still.

An example from another sport is former NFL linebacker Brian Erlacher. He went to a3A level HS in West Texas, and could only get a scholarship to New Mexico State, and he really wanted TCU. The NFL found him, though, and he went onto become a Pro Bowl linebacker.

[scottspurs]

All Versatility Draft Board


After the last couple of drafts if you go back and listen to Brian Wright he keeps saying the same things about wanting to add versatile players to the “program”


The Spurs want players that can play multiple positions and are able to switch on defense.


These are some of the players that fit that mold best.




Cooper Flagg - can play the 1, 3 or 4 on offense and can switch on just about anybody except for super quick or crafty point guards on defense. Would also definitely be a candidate to play small ball center
VJ Edgecombe- for now probably just a 2 guard on offense but has potential to develop into a point. Defensively because of his athleticism he should be able to guard 1-3 unless he comes across a stronger player with a bigger build. He struggles with those types. Needs to add some bulk but his athleticism will make up for a lot of that for now. One of the better on ball defenders when it comes to guarding smaller quicker players in this draft.
Ace Bailey- can play both wing spots offensively or defensively. Does not have the handles to play the 1 but if he adds bulk could play the 4. With the way the league is now with the true power forward position being phased out by some franchises he can definitely guard a lot of the “4’s” in this league but has no chance of guarding any player with bulk. Dude needs to hit the weight room but he has the frame to add some weight for sure. The right franchise could turn this guy into a defensive stopper because of his athleticism.
Rasheer Fleming- really only does 2 things well on offense. Shoot and slash to basket without ball. No handles. If his shooting doesn’t translate in NBA I would worry about him on offense. Does show ability on pick and roll but he was not a good midrange player in college so I think nba teams would play off coverage inside the arc. Needs a lot of development to be anything other than a spot up shooter and a guy who flashes to the basket. He will get you offensive rebounds though. On defense this guy has the ability to switch onto anybody except for the quickest of point guards. Great rebounder. Hustles. Great rebounder. Very long with size. High energy player. Not sure about his basketball IQ so may need some coaching to unlock his full potential to be a monster on defense.
Collin Murray-Boyles- LoL this dude is the definition of versatility. He can play any position on offense or defense. 1-5. Can switch onto anyone on defense including quick guards. He smothers them. This dude also has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. He is a good passer and has handles but makes some bone-headed plays sometimes. Will dribble into 5 guys or try to make an impossible pass. That said he can guard anyone, but sometimes he gambled too much which leads to him fouling or getting beat. Has the bulk to hold off 7-foot players. Just enough quickness and athleticism to hold it down against quick guards. I wouldn’t say he is a lock down defender that will shutdown the best players but he can definitely throw people off their games. On offense he can have the ball or be a slasher. His shooting was not good but if you watch the tape he has good form. Takes terrible shots. The few times when USC actually played well he showed good rhythm and ability to shoot. Shoots well from the line. Gets to the line. His team was so bad I wonder if he will be a better pro when he doesn’t have to do so much. That or he will drive a coach insane. He is the ultimate wild card of this draft. He could be a Franchise player or be out of the league in 5 years, but he is definitely versatile.
Nique Clifford- very versatile. Probably can’t play the 1 in the nba but has shown playmaking ability. Solid at everything. Would be a very safe pick. Can guard 2-5 because he has just enough athleticism and plenty of bulk. One of the best rebounding wings in this draft. Elite rebounder for his size and roll. Good shooter both with 3’s and midrange. Has handles but not good enough to play point. One of the best ready made two-way players in this draft. Stat stuffer with Derrick white vibes.
Yaxel Lendeborg- not sure if he will stay in the draft or not but he is a versatile front court player. Can play the 4 or 5. Lacks athleticism but is one of the highest IQ players in this draft. Understands positioning. Will be a dirty work guy in the nba. Grabbing boards. Making the right passes. Setting screens. I think he will be able to switch on defense in the nba because of his IQ. He will know where to be and where his help will come from. He will grab all the boards. On offense he will set screens and get offensive rebounds. Maybe the best rebounder in this class from a positioning standpoint. He can spread the floor but his release is slow so he will need to be open. Makes smart passes. Strong fundamentals. Pro Ready
Asa Newell- ability to play the 4 or 5. Adds some rim protection but not elite. Can switch on the perimeter. Should be solid defensively in the nba. On offense not sure what he will be. Very raw and needs development on that end but there is potential. Rebounds well. Your hope would be he could develop into a dirty work guy that does all the small things. Not there yet though. Nice blend of athletic ability and size.
Cedric Coward- not a leaper but has very good athleticism. Can switch on defense. Has the length to guard quicker players and bulk to guard stronger players. Strong fundamentals. High IQ. Small sample size but shows great offensive potential. Knock down shooter that has shown playmaking ability. Very good slasher. Might be the best shooter in this class.
Adou Thiero- athleticism, strength, size, frame, length! He is a physical force. Can guard anybody. Good rebounder. Blocks shots and gets steals. Disruptive. May be the best overall defender in this class should he come out. May go back to school. On offense he has shown playmaking ability. Can drive to the basket. Shooting needs a lot of work. Very bad. Needs to fix form. Not sure if he will ever be able to shoot. Needs to work on fundamentals and I’m not sure about his IQ.
Carter Bryant - size, strength and athleticism. Showed defensive versatility and shooting when he was on the floor. Something feels off because why did they not play him more. 19 minutes per game. Shows ability in small sample size. Probably more of a project than nba ready.







After Carter there are other versatile players but they need a little bit too much work to see what they will be in the nba. I could see the Spurs being high on all these players. Not that they won’t be high on the other players I just think these 11 fit the profile best. At least from the spurs recent draft history.


Maybe the draft values will change now that a core is coming together. Guys like Knueppel, Tre Johnson, Sorber, Maluach, Jakucionis, Mcneely or even the other duke shooters Evans/James could also appeal because of their defined roles within the “program”


Or maybe they will pull off a roster shifting trade and not even have any picks this year lol. Not going to hold my breath on that. I think Fox was an outlier because he wanted to be here. If anything I could see them using Vassell to move up in the draft like they did with George Hill. Or perhaps trade out for another pick in 20131

[John B]

All Versatility Draft Board


After the last couple of drafts if you go back and listen to Brian Wright he keeps saying the same things about wanting to add versatile players to the “program”


The Spurs want players that can play multiple positions and are able to switch on defense.


These are some of the players that fit that mold best.




Cooper Flagg - can play the 1, 3 or 4 on offense and can switch on just about anybody except for super quick or crafty point guards on defense. Would also definitely be a candidate to play small ball center
VJ Edgecombe- for now probably just a 2 guard on offense but has potential to develop into a point. Defensively because of his athleticism he should be able to guard 1-3 unless he comes across a stronger player with a bigger build. He struggles with those types. Needs to add some bulk but his athleticism will make up for a lot of that for now. One of the better on ball defenders when it comes to guarding smaller quicker players in this draft.
Ace Bailey- can play both wing spots offensively or defensively. Does not have the handles to play the 1 but if he adds bulk could play the 4. With the way the league is now with the true power forward position being phased out by some franchises he can definitely guard a lot of the “4’s” in this league but has no chance of guarding any player with bulk. Dude needs to hit the weight room but he has the frame to add some weight for sure. The right franchise could turn this guy into a defensive stopper because of his athleticism.
Rasheer Fleming- really only does 2 things well on offense. Shoot and slash to basket without ball. No handles. If his shooting doesn’t translate in NBA I would worry about him on offense. Does show ability on pick and roll but he was not a good midrange player in college so I think nba teams would play off coverage inside the arc. Needs a lot of development to be anything other than a spot up shooter and a guy who flashes to the basket. He will get you offensive rebounds though. On defense this guy has the ability to switch onto anybody except for the quickest of point guards. Great rebounder. Hustles. Great rebounder. Very long with size. High energy player. Not sure about his basketball IQ so may need some coaching to unlock his full potential to be a monster on defense.
Collin Murray-Boyles- LoL this dude is the definition of versatility. He can play any position on offense or defense. 1-5. Can switch onto anyone on defense including quick guards. He smothers them. This dude also has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. He is a good passer and has handles but makes some bone-headed plays sometimes. Will dribble into 5 guys or try to make an impossible pass. That said he can guard anyone, but sometimes he gambled too much which leads to him fouling or getting beat. Has the bulk to hold off 7-foot players. Just enough quickness and athleticism to hold it down against quick guards. I wouldn’t say he is a lock down defender that will shutdown the best players but he can definitely throw people off their games. On offense he can have the ball or be a slasher. His shooting was not good but if you watch the tape he has good form. Takes terrible shots. The few times when USC actually played well he showed good rhythm and ability to shoot. Shoots well from the line. Gets to the line. His team was so bad I wonder if he will be a better pro when he doesn’t have to do so much. That or he will drive a coach insane. He is the ultimate wild card of this draft. He could be a Franchise player or be out of the league in 5 years, but he is definitely versatile.
Nique Clifford- very versatile. Probably can’t play the 1 in the nba but has shown playmaking ability. Solid at everything. Would be a very safe pick. Can guard 2-5 because he has just enough athleticism and plenty of bulk. One of the best rebounding wings in this draft. Elite rebounder for his size and roll. Good shooter both with 3’s and midrange. Has handles but not good enough to play point. One of the best ready made two-way players in this draft. Stat stuffer with Derrick white vibes.
Yaxel Lendeborg- not sure if he will stay in the draft or not but he is a versatile front court player. Can play the 4 or 5. Lacks athleticism but is one of the highest IQ players in this draft. Understands positioning. Will be a dirty work guy in the nba. Grabbing boards. Making the right passes. Setting screens. I think he will be able to switch on defense in the nba because of his IQ. He will know where to be and where his help will come from. He will grab all the boards. On offense he will set screens and get offensive rebounds. Maybe the best rebounder in this class from a positioning standpoint. He can spread the floor but his release is slow so he will need to be open. Makes smart passes. Strong fundamentals. Pro Ready
Asa Newell- ability to play the 4 or 5. Adds some rim protection but not elite. Can switch on the perimeter. Should be solid defensively in the nba. On offense not sure what he will be. Very raw and needs development on that end but there is potential. Rebounds well. Your hope would be he could develop into a dirty work guy that does all the small things. Not there yet though. Nice blend of athletic ability and size.
Cedric Coward- not a leaper but has very good athleticism. Can switch on defense. Has the length to guard quicker players and bulk to guard stronger players. Strong fundamentals. High IQ. Small sample size but shows great offensive potential. Knock down shooter that has shown playmaking ability. Very good slasher. Might be the best shooter in this class.
Adou Thiero- athleticism, strength, size, frame, length! He is a physical force. Can guard anybody. Good rebounder. Blocks shots and gets steals. Disruptive. May be the best overall defender in this class should he come out. May go back to school. On offense he has shown playmaking ability. Can drive to the basket. Shooting needs a lot of work. Very bad. Needs to fix form. Not sure if he will ever be able to shoot. Needs to work on fundamentals and I’m not sure about his IQ.
Carter Bryant - size, strength and athleticism. Showed defensive versatility and shooting when he was on the floor. Something feels off because why did they not play him more. 19 minutes per game. Shows ability in small sample size. Probably more of a project than nba ready.







After Carter there are other versatile players but they need a little bit too much work to see what they will be in the nba. I could see the Spurs being high on all these players. Not that they won’t be high on the other players I just think these 11 fit the profile best. At least from the spurs recent draft history.


Maybe the draft values will change now that a core is coming together. Guys like Knueppel, Tre Johnson, Sorber, Maluach, Jakucionis, Mcneely or even the other duke shooters Evans/James could also appeal because of their defined roles within the “program”


Or maybe they will pull off a roster shifting trade and not even have any picks this year lol. Not going to hold my breath on that. I think Fox was an outlier because he wanted to be here. If anything I could see them using Vassell to move up in the draft like they did with George Hill. Or perhaps trade out for another pick in 20131





Funny how you don’t have Wolf as a versatile player, who has the handles of a guard and block and rebound as a big man. Step-back 3? Pass through traffic? Don’t sleep on his “lack of athleticism,” he switches on perimeters and chase 3 pointers. Turnover prone? He was playing a PG for Michigan practically overnight from center at Yale. You don’t expect to find an AS player at pick 15, but Wolf is a very high bball IQ player with plenty of skills at 7 footer, 250 lbs. He will find a long career in the NBA.

Oh, and don’t you know he already knows how to play with another big?? A couple of years with NBA strength trainer, this guy will be a solid big with plenty of skills.

[Dejounte]

Dejounte's analysis about our need of a big staying inside the paint for rebounding? For offensive rebounding? To me, offensive rebounding is not as important as floor spacing

To me, Fleming is almost as big as Sorber and will be equal defensive rebounder. Plus, we can defend the 3.

The comparison to Blake is flawed. Blake cannot shoot 3s. Role players don't need to hold the ball or process the scheme too much. They just need to catch and shoot, cut, defend

I was comparing development trajectory related to their rawness as a player (specifically their basketball IQ and feel). I was not comparing existing skills.

If youre good at rebounding on the defensive end, you should be good on the offensive end too. It should be a natural instinct for rebounders. But I’m not solely talking about rebounding being the only important factor on offense, but a player who is accustomed to setting screens for other shooters is highly important. If anyone remembers Poeltl, he was the maestro at that.

Yes, floor spacing is important to many of you but I think it is a myth that will be busted soon enough. There are already stats that show that the rebound battle is a major pain point.

[rankingtear]

This scenario that you bring up is easy to scheme against. They’d just play zone defense or clog the paint if Wemby even decides to drive to the hoop. Wemby takes up so much space when he’s dribbling that any idea of playing inside-out offense with him as the ball handler loses its effectiveness because the nearest player only needs to take a few steps to double Wemby. Wemby benefits more from having cutters on his team than 3 pt shooters. We’ve also seen that Wemby likes to do a touch pass to Sochan in the paint. If we have a tweener C as our PF, the opposing PF or wing on our PF would lose any rebounding advantage, even if it was a big man assigned to our C.

We have enough evidence to see that the current setup doesn’t work with a big wing defensively and rebound-wise. We’ve even seen a setup with a shooting PF in Barnes. Neither work in the grand scheme of things. Last season was used to see what works and what doesn’t work.

There is no scenario Wemby being match up against the other teams big man is more favorable in the perimeter and on the wings for him and the team.

[spurraider21]

Queen and Sorber are very different but both talented enough in their own way that you'd have to consider them. I mean in a vacuum if you asked me if Queen or... Knueppel is more likely to be out of the league in 4 years, id say Kon.

but the spurs have enough of a skeleton in place between wemby/fox/castle that they need to consider fit more than they have had to in years past

[scottspurs]

Funny how you don’t have Wolf as a versatile player, who has the handles of a guard and block and rebound as a big man. Step-back 3? Pass through traffic? Don’t sleep on his “lack of athleticism,” he switches on perimeters and chase 3 pointers. Turnover prone? He was playing a PG for Michigan practically overnight from center at Yale. You don’t expect to find an AS player at pick 15, but Wolf is a very high bball IQ player with plenty of skills at 7 footer, 250 lbs. He will find a long career in the NBA.

Oh, and don’t you know he already knows how to play with another big?? A couple of years with NBA strength trainer, this guy will be a solid big with plenty of skills.

My problem with Wolf other than the obvious lack of athleticism is his free throw shooting. He has handles but what’s the point if you can just play aggressive and foul him. Unless he improves that he is just another 5 in the NBA. I view him as a 2nd round player.

[scottspurs]

I actually like the other Michigan big Goldin more than Wolf. If both are playing Center he is better. If Wolf improves his free throw shooting he could be a steal but he needs alot of work compared to the other versatile players in this draft

[CGD]

Funny how you don’t have Wolf as a versatile player, who has the handles of a guard and block and rebound as a big man. Step-back 3? Pass through traffic? Don’t sleep on his “lack of athleticism,” he switches on perimeters and chase 3 pointers. Turnover prone? He was playing a PG for Michigan practically overnight from center at Yale. You don’t expect to find an AS player at pick 15, but Wolf is a very high bball IQ player with plenty of skills at 7 footer, 250 lbs. He will find a long career in the NBA.

Oh, and don’t you know he already knows how to play with another big?? A couple of years with NBA strength trainer, this guy will be a solid big with plenty of skills.

I think he’d be awesome with our second round pick. I expect he’ll still be on the board by then too.

[John B]

My problem with Wolf other than the obvious lack of athleticism is his free throw shooting. He has handles but what’s the point if you can just play aggressive and foul him. Unless he improves that he is just another 5 in the NBA. I view him as a 2nd round player.

The guy does step-back 3’s and not shy at sending them. I wouldn’t be surprised if a shooting coach improves his shooting. He was doing 62% and 71% FT at Yale. Then overnight switched to playing PG/Point Forward at Michigan and TO’s up, FT % down. Dribbling for a big man can affect shooting percentage you know. The guy is very skilled, high bball IQ. Those type know how to work and improve their game, including shooting all I’m saying.

[exstatic]

My problem with Wolf other than the obvious lack of athleticism is his free throw shooting. He has handles but what’s the point if you can just play aggressive and foul him. Unless he improves that he is just another 5 in the NBA. I view him as a 2nd round player.

His shooting is probably fake, for that reason.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Queen and Sorber are very different but both talented enough in their own way that you'd have to consider them. I mean in a vacuum if you asked me if Queen or... Knueppel is more likely to be out of the league in 4 years, id say Kon.

but the spurs have enough of a skeleton in place between wemby/fox/castle that they need to consider fit more than they have had to in years past

Yes. There will not be enough basketball for other players. We already have a core. Adding players like Queen or Sorber may complicate and even kill our offense.

Plus, Queen may be another teams' #1 to #2 guy, but he will likely give up more points than creating. I don't see Spurs pick him even if he falls to #8 in an unlikely situation.

Khaman will be a different story. He can defend the post and perimeter. A good Lob partner. May even develop a 3-point. I can see spurs pick him if availble at 8. But then we lose Kon which sucks.

[John B]

Yes. There will not be enough basketball for other players. We already have a core. Adding players like Queen or Sorber may complicate and even kill our offense.

Plus, Queen may be another teams' #1 to #2 guy, but he will likely give up more points than creating. I don't see Spurs pick him even if he falls to #8 in an unlikely situation.

Khaman will be a different story. He can defend the post and perimeter. A good Lob partner. May even develop a 3-point. I can see spurs pick him if availble at 8. But then we lose Kon which sucks.

Spurs currently don’t have a big man who can post. Wemby is not. And when the game slows down, and you need a point. You need that big man on the post who will demand double-team and create open shots. Wemby is the best opportunistic player ever to find that open shots, lob pass. Imagine Kobe but 7’5 playing in a triangle offense (sorry bad word for Spurs purists) with imposing Queen in the post. Damn!

[scott]

I’ve been watching these guys every day to see if I’m going to keep shuffling the order I want them in:

Queen - More of a “make something out of nothing” ISO big. Because he’s an ISO big (a super unique thing in the NBA), it can be a good or bad thing. If background interviews check out and he’s a team player, it’s a good thing. He adds a dimension to the Spurs lineup with an already crowded offensive lineup of Fox, Castle, Wemby and makes it even more potent. Apparently Castle and Queen already follow each other on Instagram so there might already be a connection there. Queen is the type of pick you make with the first of our two FRP’s in order to boost his confidence (which is already sky high). I’d also like to add that there are NO bigs who can go coast to coast with the ball like Queen can. It’s absolutely absurd what he’s able to do at his height. For this reason, he is special.

Sorber - I’ve gone at length about this guy. People are seriously sleeping on him. He’s drawing comparisons to Looney and Okongwu on scouting reports (two guys I’ve said in the past who would be perfect next to Wemby), but I think he’s much more than that. His body movement and post moves are Tim Duncanesque. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s been studying him a lot. He knows his angles, makes the simple play, and has all sorts of tricks up his sleeve when scoring down low that you don’t notice at first. It makes sense that there was a report of the Spurs scouting him, they probably see TD as being a good mentor for him. If it was up to me, I’d draft him with our 8th but I acknowledge that it’d probably be more strategic to pick him up with the ATL pick since the injury might scare teams off anyway.

Rasheer Fleming - Everybody knows I was the first to be high on this guy. I still am. However, unlike the first two above, his ceiling is immediately lower due to his inconsistent performance during college. He’s gifted in all the ways people have mentioned over and over, but it’s going to be a Blake Wesley-esque gamble where you’re still hoping that his brain will develop fast enough to realize his potential. This is the kind of pick scott (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=150) keeps saying that the draft pick won’t be an immediate contributor. There would be some growing pains with this guy and because of that, I would only draft him with the ATL pick unlike the two above who I would consider drafting with the Spurs pick.

RE: Fit concerns - I will repeat again that I believe talent supersedes everything. If any of these guys are as good as I think they are, they will make it work and remove any doubt of how they will fit alongside Wemby. It’s the Tim Duncan argument. I’d play Tim Duncan next to Wemby because he’s just that good despite skills or tendencies that might be lacking. I happen to think Sorber and Queen are good fits due to our urgent need of a big to stay in the paint as opposed to planting all of our players on the perimeter with no one to rebound inside. That’s an unpopular opinion and I’ll stick with it.

I'm not super concerned about the fit for any of these because the worst case scenario is these guys become high end backups who still spend 15+ minutes a game with Wemby even if they don't start along side him. In this draft, I'm okay with coming away with that (assuming we don't jump up). Queen, Sorber, and even CMB are all intriguing from that POV. I like Fleming's archetype but I put him a tier below each of those guys.

I'm not expecting us to come away from this draft with an instant starter/ROTY contender type player and I'd be just as excited to land any of these guys as I would anyone else in our range. Queen is the one with the highest ceiling it appears, so that would be exciting as well. I don't see the alleged All-Star ceiling with Kon, but I think he'd be a valuable role player/4th starter eventually which is also fine picking at 8.

[scottspurs]

Right now my favorite draft would be Derik Queen should he make it the Spurs. Nique Clifford with the hawks pick and Cedric Coward in the 2nd.

I’m expecting Knueppel or Tre Johnson, Rasheer Fleming with the hawks pick and draft/stash or some dude that will take a two-way contract

obviously winning the lottery would be the best case scenario.

Would be so awesome if the hawks missed the playoffs

[scottspurs]

More on Queen. When Maryland played Rutgers. With Harper and Bailey on the court. The best player by far was Derik Queen. When Derik played with Cooper Flagg, Asa Newell and Liam Mcneely in High School. He was the best player on that team. Not saying he will be better pro than Flagg but in High School as teammates he was better. McDonald’s All-American Game. MVP was Derik Queen. Dude is a baller. Glad people on this board are starting to see that. Hopefully the Spurs see it that way.

[scott]

I was comparing development trajectory related to their rawness as a player (specifically their basketball IQ and feel). I was not comparing existing skills.

If youre good at rebounding on the defensive end, you should be good on the offensive end too. It should be a natural instinct for rebounders. But I’m not solely talking about rebounding being the only important factor on offense, but a player who is accustomed to setting screens for other shooters is highly important. If anyone remembers Poeltl, he was the maestro at that.

Yes, floor spacing is important to many of you but I think it is a myth that will be busted soon enough. There are already stats that show that the rebound battle is a major pain point.

I'm not so sure about that. There are lots of examples of players with DREB metrics that don't align with their OREB metrics. Our own Victor is a prime example of that. He rates 97th percentile (and 7th best in the league overall) in Crafted Defensive Rebound Quality, but only 52nd percentile in Offensive Rebound Quality. And this isn't just simply a matter of how the player is deployed on the offensive and defensive ends, as the Rebound Quality metric is 3 parts Regularized Adjusted Rebounding and 1 part Rebounding % - it attempts (as best it can) to filter out the noise over a large enough sample size. Simply put: defensive rebounding talent does not always translate to offensive rebounding talent, and vice versa.

There are definitely some guys who are rebounding gurus. Andre Drummond comes to mind. He rates best in the league in ORB and 96th percentile in DRB. My man Bassey, who is on his way to out of the league, is another. 91st percentile in ORB, 86th in DRB.

But here are some guys where one metric is out of sync with the other:

Nurkic: 71st percentile ORB, best in the league in DRB
Tari Eason: 96th percentile ORB, 51st percentile DRB
Porzingis: 36th percentile ORB, 93rd percentile DRB
Sengun: 77th percentile ORB, 93rd percentile DRB

Like I said, the stat tries to normalize the data, there are a lot of factors at play here and now teams deploy these players certainly has an impact.

But I do think you cannot simply assume a player good at defensive rebounding will automatically be good at offensive rebounding.

There is a really good old post on reddit that goes into depth on rebounding and Regularized Adjusted Rebounding stats. There was also a link to a 53 minute podcast just on the value of rebounding that I remember listening to a few years ago from Ben Taylor but it looks like the link is now broken. Anyway, here is the write up from a very smart redditor: https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/ew4o5c/on_the_value_of_rebounds_and_an_overlooked_stat/

[spurraider21]

i remember Enes Kanter had a reputation for being an offensive rebounding specialist, dont know how his numbers held up

i remember Jakob similarly, better on the offensive glass than defensive

[The Truth #6]

Dejounte's analysis about our need of a big staying inside the paint for rebounding? For offensive rebounding? To me, offensive rebounding is not as important as floor spacing

To me, Fleming is almost as big as Sorber and will be equal defensive rebounder. Plus, we can defend the 3.

The comparison to Blake is flawed. Blake cannot shoot 3s. Role players don't need to hold the ball or process the scheme too much. They just need to catch and shoot, cut, defend

Generally speaking, this is where I'm at as well. The Spurs have dragged their feet accepting the importance of 3P shooting over the years. Historically, they've deemphasized offensive rebounding. I don't see the problem with considering Fleming for an important role, not to mention further emphasizing defense, which to me is also important.

Castle, Fox, and Wemby all appear to be ball dominant. Two role players next to them to provide shooting and cutting is sensible.

I

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Queen's ceiling is Sengun; Fleming ceiling is Naz Raid. Which one do you all want? I'm curious.

I still pick Fleming. Current Spurs + Naz Reid will beat the current rockets.

Queen would have value if Wemby has a career-ending injury, God forbidden.

[RC_Drunkford]

Convincing. I agree. We need centers because Wemby is a part time center, he wants to play like a wing or forward. Maybe Derik Queen and some one like Adams(but younger) is synergic and adds diversity to our team.

we need a PF who plays like a C on offense and like a PF on defense, but can guard bigger players

[scott]

Shout out to whoever unplugged and re-plugged the hamster wheel back at HQ. Site running 1000x better now.

Maybe enough people just clicked enough LensCrafters links to upgrade us to 2003 standard speeds.

[mo7888]

My last Board before we have combine numbers and interview rumors. Don't pay to much attention to the ranking, look more into the tiers. For instance, there's not much difference between #5 and #9. It just depends on how you want to build a team through this draft and FA.

Tier 1:
1. Cooper Flagg
Tier 2:
2. Dylan Harper
3. Ace Bailey
4. V.J. Edgecombe
Tier 3:
5. Jon Knueppel
6. Liam McNeely
7. Kasparas Jackucionis
8. Tre Johnson
9. Jase Richardson
Tier 4:
10. Carter Bryant
11. Thomas Sorber
12. Egor Demin
13. Sergio De Larrea
14. Shaman Maluach
15. Rasheer Fleming
Tier 5:
16. Noa Essengue
17. Jeremiah Fears
18. Derick Queen
19. Asa Newell
20. Ben Saraf
21. Will Riley
22. Nolan Traore
23. Collins Murray-Boyles
Tier 6:
24. Walter Clayton jr
25. Danny Wolf
26. Alex Condon
27. Tyrese Proctor
28. Alex Karaban
29. Dink Pate
30. Ryan Kalkbrenner

[Dejounte]

Shout out to whoever unplugged and re-plugged the hamster wheel back at HQ. Site running 1000x better now.

Maybe enough people just clicked enough LensCrafters links to upgrade us to 2003 standard speeds.

Holy shit you’re right. What the fuck happened

i guess they were finally concerned when we started talking about a new forum

[Dejounte]

Queen's ceiling is Sengun; Fleming ceiling is Naz Raid. Which one do you all want? I'm curious.

I still pick Fleming. Current Spurs + Naz Reid will beat the current rockets.

Queen would have value if Wemby has a career-ending injury, God forbidden.

You don’t pass on the all star, man. Come on

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Generally speaking, this is where I'm at as well. The Spurs have dragged their feet accepting the importance of 3P shooting over the years. Historically, they've deemphasized offensive rebounding. I don't see the problem with considering Fleming for an important role, not to mention further emphasizing defense, which to me is also important.

Castle, Fox, and Wemby all appear to be ball dominant. Two role players next to them to provide shooting and cutting is sensible.

I

Yes Bro. It would be a basketball earthquake to reduce touches of castle, Fox and reinvent new offensive and defensive schemes with a new what-so-called skilled big. We would miss playoff again next season. Imagine the opposite team will make raining of 3s since Queen/Sorber cannot defend the perimeter. At the same time, we would brick 3s after 3s because we don't have enough shooters.

In the above scenarios, we would grab a few more rebounds, but won't be enough to make a difference In the modern basketball, making and defending the 3s are just too important..

[RC_Drunkford]

I don't see Queen as an ideal fit. We have enough offensive firepower and really need defense. The problem is we need a very versatile PF. Like someone who can guard C's in the post, do some weakside shotblocking, can guard on the perimeter as well, crashes the boards, can be a roll man on offense and step out to shoot the 3. Which is why the Naz Reid/John Collins type of profile would be ideal. That type of player is not in this draft, so you gotta take a swing at someone who has a chance to become that.

Fleming is definitely who I want with the ATL pick. Drafting him with the Spurs pick would be a reach. I remain high on Kon, if you look at all the metrics scottspurs posted he just plays a brand of winning basketball in all areas of the game.

[LeBowen]

Which is why the Naz Reid/John Collins type of profile would be ideal.

Collins would be ideal, but Naz wouldn't. The biggest criticism Timberwolves fans have for him is that he plays smaller than his size.

As for guarding Cs, year two Wemby already matched up well against everyone, he won't have any issues with that. Spurs just need to help him not to be outnumbered inside.

[John B]

Holy crap like all decided to go to the buffet bar at the same time…

Spurs need a big man. Think Zubac getting 20 rebounds from us. There’s Queen, Sorber or Malauch (if he still has visa) at 8th.

15th is a big swing at athletic defensive ala Tari Eason. Fleming, Bryant, Wolf (I will consider 7 footer 250 lbs with handles athletic)

SRP Spurs need a backup PG - Boogie Fland

[TD 21]

Knueppel and Sorber (if stays in and the foot checks out) would be ideal, but I continue to feel like the former won't be available and am getting a bad feeling that they could target Murray-Boyles (would be more amendable if Sochan were getting traded, but yeah right) because of their obsession with non shooters.

Central casting Spur Riley feels like another target.

Johnson, Queen and Fears are the only top 10ish projections I can't see at all.

[SpursBills]

I see a lot of shooting vs rebounding / interior presence posts here - this seems to be the primary debate with regards to who to play next to Wemby, so I wanted to briefly look at this in successful teams.

First, a point that may or may not be debated:
The number of shooters in a lineup doesn't matter as much as the total gravity of the entire lineup. Steph Curry played with multiple non-shooters and mediocre shooters when he won his title, but his shooting gravity was enough to overcome that.

With that said, I wanted to look at total gravity (total 3PM/100 possessions) of the top teams in the league this year:



NBA Team
Lineup
3 PM/100


OKC Thunder
SGA-Chet-Jdub-Ihart-Dort
12


Boston Celtics
White-Holiday-Brown-Tatum-Porzingis
19.9


Cleveland Cavaliers
Garland-Mitchell-Strus-Mobley-Allen
15.6


Houston Rockets
FVV-Amen-Brooks-Sengun-Green
12.6


Clippers
Harden-Powell-Kawhi-Zubac-Bogdanovic/Dunn
14.9


Lakers
Doncic-Lebron-Reaves-DFS-Hachimura
18


Magic
Black-KCP-Franz-Paolo-WCJ
10.5


Spurs
Castle-Fox-Wemby-??-??
8.8



I used the Magic as a negative control to see what the worst shooting team in the league would look like.

What we see isn't necessarily a surprise:

Boston and the Lakers can run true 5-out offenses and so they have the most team gravity. Jayson Tatum is somehow still underrated and is the most role-malleable superstar in the league.

OKC and Houston show that low total shooting gravity can work in the regular season! Your non-shooter has to be pretty high level at everything else (All-NBA level defensive versatility and big-like rebounding for Amen, high level playmaking and interior toughness for IHart). It'll be interesting to see what OKC does with IHart in the post-season and if he gets played off the floor, as they have the ability to juice their gravity by subbing him out for Jaylin Williams (3.7 3PM/100).

As to how this pertains to the Spurs, Wemby/Fox/Castle are sitting at 8.8 and I'd actually like to see them get that total up to about 9-10 ideally, especially coming from Castle. I'm not sure Wemby can juice his 3s much more than what he did this season. If you can get to that level, a high level shooting wing can get you around 4 3PM/100 (Vassell at 3.9, Champagnie at 4.5). That gets you to around Houston-OKC levels of shooting. As for the forward next to Wemby, what this data seems to suggest is that you can go either shooting or big, and either approach would work. We'll see how these teams do in the playoffs though and whether these non-shooters start getting played off the floor more.

[Vienna]

If Bryant is still there when the Spurs pick, he should be the pick. That’s not a reach, most mocks underrate him, based on the numbers. But no other player in this class (outside the top 4) has that combination of tools to work with. Guarrantee that he pans out? Sure not. But at the very least he should turn into a good defender with a decent shot.

the Atlanta pick should be BPA, no matter of position. one player they like will fall. Newell, McNeeley, Queen, Richardson, Jakucionis…….I‘m happy with anyone of this group.

and yes, draft Fleming…….if he is there at #38. he will fall out of the 1st round. seems the Ringer is the only mock to get this right.

[TD 21]

^ Like it's always been with hybrid C's (think Duncan and P. Gasol) it's not an either/or next to Wembanyama; it's both, with one or the other taking precedent based on matchup . . .

Porzingis has Tatum or Horford/Kornet
Mobley has Allen or Wade/Hunter
Davis has Lively II/Gafford or Washington
Jackson Jr. has Edey/Clarke (out for reason) or Aldama
Adebayo has Ware or Highsmith/Jacquez Jr.
Towns has Hart/Anunoby or Robinson
Holmgren has Hartenstein or Williams
Wembanyama has Barnes or ?

[SpursBills]

I see a lot of shooting vs rebounding / interior presence posts here - this seems to be the primary debate with regards to who to play next to Wemby, so I wanted to briefly look at this in successful teams.

First, a point that may or may not be debated:
The number of shooters in a lineup doesn't matter as much as the total gravity of the entire lineup. Steph Curry played with multiple non-shooters and mediocre shooters when he won his title, but his shooting gravity was enough to overcome that.

With that said, I wanted to look at total gravity (total 3PM/100 possessions) of the top teams in the league this year:



NBA Team
Lineup
3 PM/100


OKC Thunder
SGA-Chet-Jdub-Ihart-Dort
12


Boston Celtics
White-Holiday-Brown-Tatum-Porzingis
19.9


Cleveland Cavaliers
Garland-Mitchell-Strus-Mobley-Allen
15.6


Houston Rockets
FVV-Amen-Brooks-Sengun-Green
12.6


Clippers
Harden-Powell-Kawhi-Zubac-Bogdanovic/Dunn
14.9


Lakers
Doncic-Lebron-Reaves-DFS-Hachimura
18


Magic
Black-KCP-Franz-Paolo-WCJ
10.5


Spurs
Castle-Fox-Wemby-??-??
8.8



I used the Magic as a negative control to see what the worst shooting team in the league would look like.

What we see isn't necessarily a surprise:

Boston and the Lakers can run true 5-out offenses and so they have the most team gravity. Jayson Tatum is somehow still underrated and is the most role-malleable superstar in the league.

OKC and Houston show that low total shooting gravity can work in the regular season! Your non-shooter has to be pretty high level at everything else (All-NBA level defensive versatility and big-like rebounding for Amen, high level playmaking and interior toughness for IHart). It'll be interesting to see what OKC does with IHart in the post-season and if he gets played off the floor, as they have the ability to juice their gravity by subbing him out for Jaylin Williams (3.7 3PM/100).

As to how this pertains to the Spurs, Wemby/Fox/Castle are sitting at 8.8 and I'd actually like to see them get that total up to about 9-10 ideally, especially coming from Castle. I'm not sure Wemby can juice his 3s much more than what he did this season. If you can get to that level, a high level shooting wing can get you around 4 3PM/100 (Vassell at 3.9, Champagnie at 4.5). That gets you to around Houston-OKC levels of shooting. As for the forward next to Wemby, what this data seems to suggest is that you can go either shooting or big, and either approach would work. We'll see how these teams do in the playoffs though and whether these non-shooters start getting played off the floor more.

A few other thoughts / questions I have looking at this data:

1. Cleveland is succeeding without a high level big wing defender! How is this possible? My entire thought behind keeping Sochan (and to a degree drafting CMB) is that you need someone who you can throw onto high level big wings. Are they throwing Dean Wade on these guys? Dean Wade can shoot the 3 (3+ 3PM/100) and defend big wings at a passable level and is getting paid 6 million a year. Can Sochan be more impactful than Dean Wade in the future? Koby Altman has really established himself as an S-tier GM these last few seasons who doesn't get talked about enough.

2. It seems pretty clear that a high level shooting wing is the best way to get your gravity up to respectable levels. This much we know. If they have a decent handle and won't get crushed on the defensive end, all the better.

3. Even if we go the interior presence route, it seems like it'd be helpful to have a shooting big that you can toggle in and out in the playoffs depending on the matchup. While Wemby's clearly a center, there are a lot of center-related things I don't really want him doing a ton of over an 82 game season. First on that list is setting hard screens. With that in mind, I do agree that John Collins is the most realistic target to try and acquire if we end up getting a true big in the draft.

[Dejounte]

You should add pace SpursBills and see if there’s any correlation there. This team is capped by how fast Wemby wants to go, and he’ll never want to go fast. I re-emphasize that shooters will never do well on this team and that they have to be more opportunistic than be volume shooters, and that is because Wemby doesn’t really play within the flow of the offense.

[Dejounte]

A few other thoughts / questions I have looking at this data:

1. Cleveland is succeeding without a high level big wing defender! How is this possible? My entire thought behind keeping Sochan (and to a degree drafting CMB) is that you need someone who you can throw onto high level big wings. Are they throwing Dean Wade on these guys? Dean Wade can shoot the 3 (3+ 3PM/100) and defend big wings at a passable level and is getting paid 6 million a year. Can Sochan be more impactful than Dean Wade in the future? Koby Altman has really established himself as an S-tier GM these last few seasons who doesn't get talked about enough.

2. It seems pretty clear that a high level shooting wing is the best way to get your gravity up to respectable levels. This much we know. If they have a decent handle and won't get crushed on the defensive end, all the better.

3. Even if we go the interior presence route, it seems like it'd be helpful to have a shooting big that you can toggle in and out in the playoffs depending on the matchup. While Wemby's clearly a center, there are a lot of center-related things I don't really want him doing a ton of over an 82 game season. First on that list is setting hard screens. With that in mind, I do agree that John Collins is the most realistic target to try and acquire if we end up getting a true big in the draft.

Great point on number 3. It’s what I said in an earlier post. Spurs’ priority will always be protecting Wemby. I’m pretty sure we saw Wemby go down once this past season because someone bumped knees with him during a screen. The Spurs probably had a heart attack when they saw that happen. Another reason why I believe they’ll go for a brute force vs a twig who can only shoot.

[Dejounte]

You should add pace SpursBills (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=18470) and see if there’s any correlation there. This team is capped by how fast Wemby wants to go, and he’ll never want to go fast. I re-emphasize that shooters will never do well on this team and that they have to be more opportunistic than be volume shooters, and that is because Wemby doesn’t really play within the flow of the offense.

To confirm the opportunistic theory, we need to see the average usage between the big three or individual, and then the usage of the role players collectively. I think this will paint the full story.

[spurraider21]

keep in mind that most of the spurs "gravity" comes from wembanyama himself. he attempted 8.8 threes per game and was making 3.1 per. 13th in the league in attempts per game. no other center was in the top 60. next up was KP averaging 6.0 attempts per game. wemby was 18th in 3PM. KP was 40th in the league in makes

he is lappining the field at the position even if he's not the most accurate shooter. believe it was Thinking Basketball that put out a video this year about how he might be the greatest floor spacing 5 in league history (even if he's not as efficient as, say, KP or BroLo) because of his willingness to shoot, ability to shoot off the dribble, in transition, etc.

if wemby were to tone down the shooting (likely if Fox/Wemby pick and rolls become the weapon that Paul/Wemby, Tre/Wemby, or (lol) Sochan/Wemby never were)... we'd still need to pick it up elsewhere

[Dejounte]

keep in mind that most of the spurs "gravity" comes from wembanyama himself. he attempted 8.8 threes per game and was making 3.1 per. 13th in the league in attempts per game. no other center was in the top 60. next up was KP averaging 6.0 attempts per game. wemby was 18th in 3PM. KP was 40th in the league in makes

he is lappining the field at the position even if he's not the most accurate shooter. believe it was Thinking Basketball that put out a video this year about how he might be the greatest floor spacing 5 in league history (even if he's not as efficient as, say, KP or BroLo) because of his willingness to shoot, ability to shoot off the dribble, in transition, etc.

if wemby were to tone down the shooting (likely if Fox/Wemby pick and rolls become the weapon that Paul/Wemby, Tre/Wemby, or (lol) Sochan/Wemby never were)... we'd still need to pick it up elsewhere

Exactly! This is what people need to realize. Wemby IS our shooter and he’ll continue throwing up those shots. So the Spurs need the opposite of what people think. Guys who can get in the paint and dish it to him. We already have Fox and Castle who do that. Get two more. This team is the inverse of most other teams with stars who need 3 pt shooters. He’s basically Steph Curry in SpursBills ‘ earlier post.

[spurraider21]

Spurs currently don’t have a big man who can post. Wemby is not. And when the game slows down, and you need a point. You need that big man on the post who will demand double-team and create open shots. Wemby is the best opportunistic player ever to find that open shots, lob pass. Imagine Kobe but 7’5 playing in a triangle offense (sorry bad word for Spurs purists) with imposing Queen in the post. Damn!
my guy we didnt draft wemby, castle, and trade for fox to run the offense through Derik Queen in the post

we need ancillary players, not main characters. its why vassell has been a poor fit

[John B]

my guy we didnt draft wemby, castle, and trade for fox to run the offense through Derik Queen in the post

I’m not saying Queen will be the 1st option. But when plays slow down, it’s a luxury to have a big who can post.

[scottspurs]

Top offensive/defensive and total Rebound % leaders among draft prospects


Rebound % is a good indicator of who the best rebounders are. There is a 73% translate rate from college to pros. Meaning there is a good chance if a player is a good rebounder in college he will replicate it in the pros. Here are the top guys in this draft class


Offensive rebound %




Khaman Maluach- 16.5
Johni Broome- 14.1
Asa Newell- 13.9
Alex Condon - 12.5
Yaxel Lendeborg- 11.6



11% is usually the threshold that translates to the pros and these are the only 5 prospects that met that mark


Defensive Rebound %




Maxime Raynaud-28.7
Nique Clifford- 26.0
Johni Broome- 26.0
Danny Wolf- 25.0
Yaxel Lendeborg- 24.9
Derik Queen- 24.6
Collin Murray-Boyles- 23.8
Rasheer Fleming- 22.8
Thomas Sorber- 21.9
Cooper Flagg- 21.2
Trevon Brazile-20.3
Alex Condon- 19.3
Khaman Maluach- 19.2
Liam Mcneely- 18.7
Ryan Kalkbrenner-18.4
Carter Bryant- 17.8
Ace Bailey-17.5
Vladislav Goldin- 17.4
Coleman Hawkins- 17.4
Cedric Coward-17.2



Typically 17% is acceptable/above average. 20% is good. 23% is great. Anything above 26% is elite


Total rebound %




Johni Broome- 20.2
Maxime Raynaud-18.8
Yaxel Lendeborg- 18.1
Khaman Maluach- 18.0
Danny Wolf- 17.7
Derik Queen- 16.9
Nique Clifford- 16.4
Collin Murray-Boyles- 16.3
Thomas Sorber- 15.6
Rasheer Fleming- 15.3



+15% is usually the threshold that translates to a college player being a good all around rebounder in the NBA and these are the only 10 prospects that meet that threshold


Notes


Asa Newell grades as one of the only good offensive rebounders in this class but at 13.5 def reb % he grades as a well below average (15%) rebounder on defense.


Nique Clifford and Cedric Coward were the only wing/guard prospects to grade well.


Overall if the Spurs want to get better at rebounding there are several players that can help with that especially on the defensive side.

[BackHome]

I have to agree in that Wemby is never going to be a down low center as he likes playing way outside and since he doesn’t have foot speed to beat people off the dribble he will mostly throw up a 3 ball. To me the biggest issue is will we have a smart enough coach to design a better offense and defense around Wemby but since this is about the draft I will keep my focus on it.

One thing I have come to understand is that that there is just one ball to go around and since we have Fox, Castle, and Wemby needing touches who ever we get is going to have to be able to make smart decisions and be able to shoot within a few seconds. It is going to be really interesting to see these players at the combine to see really what there measurements are. In the case of Queen if he shows up 20 pounds lighter he will probably go top 7 pretty easy if teams don’t get any Zion vibes from him. As far as this drafts lots of ways to go just really hope we have our new coach signed before we draft

First pick - Nipples, Queenie, and Fear
Hawks pick - Bryant, Dem, Flemming, Saraf, Liam

[CGD]

My last Board before we have combine numbers and interview rumors. Don't pay to much attention to the ranking, look more into the tiers. For instance, there's not much difference between #5 and #9. It just depends on how you want to build a team through this draft and FA.

Tier 1:
1. Cooper Flagg
Tier 2:
2. Dylan Harper
3. Ace Bailey
4. V.J. Edgecombe
Tier 3:
5. Jon Knueppel
6. Liam McNeely
7. Kasparas Jackucionis
8. Tre Johnson
9. Jase Richardson
Tier 4:
10. Carter Bryant
11. Thomas Sorber
12. Egor Demin
13. Sergio De Larrea
14. Shaman Maluach
15. Rasheer Fleming
Tier 5:
16. Noa Essengue
17. Jeremiah Fears
18. Derick Queen
19. Asa Newell
20. Ben Saraf
21. Will Riley
22. Nolan Traore
23. Collins Murray-Boyles
Tier 6:
24. Walter Clayton jr
25. Danny Wolf
26. Alex Condon
27. Tyrese Proctor
28. Alex Karaban
29. Dink Pate
30. Ryan Kalkbrenner

This is a good way to look at it. I’ve been wondering if we’ve been overhyping Kon (who I like) while underrating Kasparas and Liam. I don’t think they are that far from each other.

If you told me we could walk away with one of your Tier 3 (expect for Jase) and Sorber, I’d be very pleased with this draft.

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AApkD4uSCN4

[rankingtear]

I think CMB is their guy. He has some Devin in him in terms of developmental trajectory on offense plus career arc. Fit matters less if he is a completely different player in the future.

[Vienna]

Notes

Asa Newell grades as one of the only good offensive rebounders in this class but at 13.5 def reb % he grades as a well below average (15%) rebounder on defense.



I don't agree to that kind of evaluation. if a player is well above average at offensive rebounds (those are usually contested at a higher rate) and the same player is well below average at defensive rebounds, my first tought would be, that there is a reason within the teams positioning and roles on defense.
there is either Godfrey or Cyril with him on the court, who both get def rebs at a higher rate, but get far less off rebs. I would assume that Asa is the guy to run, in situations, when the robound isn't contested anyway. and Georgia plays with two big guards, who rebound well enough.
so, after looking at it from another angle, I would think Asa is a decent to good rebounder, no matter what the numbers tell. and he will add strenght and get even better in that department.

[scottspurs]

I don't agree to that kind of evaluation. if a player is well above average at offensive rebounds (those are usually contested at a higher rate) and the same player is well below average at defensive rebounds, my first tought would be, that there is a reason within the teams positioning and roles on defense.
there is either Godfrey or Cyril with him on the court, who both get def rebs at a higher rate, but get far less off rebs. I would assume that Asa is the guy to run, in situations, when the robound isn't contested anyway. and Georgia plays with two big guards, who rebound well enough.
so, after looking at it from another angle, I would think Asa is a decent to good rebounder, no matter what the numbers tell. and he will add strenght and get even better in that department.


Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DRB%) is a basketball statistic that measures a team's or player's ability to grab rebounds on the defensive end of the court. It's calculated by dividing the number of defensive rebounds by the total number of defensive rebounds plus the opponent's offensive rebounds, and then multiplying by 100. Essentially, it shows what percentage of available defensive rebounds a team or player is able to secure.

A lot of it is determined by opportunity so you could be right. Watching I didn’t necessarily see him as a force on the boards though.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Thank you Scottspurs for your nice analysis!

Who would you pick based on your data? Just curious.

[spurraider21]

1912544302997062053

[Dejounte]

Is this forum loading like shit again? What was that few minutes of heaven yesterday? Why is it gone?

[LeBowen]

Is this forum loading like shit again? What was that few minutes of heaven yesterday? Why is it gone?

Weather app says it's sunny in Slovenia, idk what could be the issue.

[couchman]

I’ve had Queen as a top 5 talent for a while now, just see my past posts.
His feel for the game, post skills, rebounding, and size make him a high ceiling prospect.
I have Flagg, then Harper, and then I see a 3way time between Queen, Edgecomb, and Bailey.
The tiebrealer depends on what you need.
The Spurs need forwards and a big. To me that means Queen ahead of Bailey.
I’d be ok picking Queen 3rd.
Im definitely ok taking him 8th.

[twodeep]

Is this forum loading like shit again? What was that few minutes of heaven yesterday? Why is it gone?

I kidnapped the hamsters and I am holding them hostage for ransom

[sig]

I know the Spurs have Fox and Castle but really the idea of picking up Jase richardson if they can get him with the their 2nd pick in round 1. I think playing in the Izzo systems might have lowered the ceiling on him. I rather have him than Fears or the Juc dude from Illinois.

[Mr. Body]

Kon Knueppel has brothers named Klay, Kole, and Klint. Jesus Christ, white people.

[spurraider21]

im not as high on richardson as a lot of people. to me he's more of an undersized SG than a point guard. but cant deny he is a very efficient 3 level scorer with really good touch in the interior/midrange with floaters and stuff. i dont think he does enough creation to be considered a point guard. some people say he was held back by the system there and wasnt asked to do point guard things, but i didnt see many signs of playmaking during the tourney

with that said, having a jumbo sized PG like Castle is the antidote for that weakness, as they can cross-match defensively. i could see him being a good 6th man scorer.

[spurraider21]

Kon Knueppel has brothers named Klay, Kole, and Klint. Jesus Christ, white people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxqCGTkV5wg

[The Truth #6]

im not as high on richardson as a lot of people. to me he's more of an undersized SG than a point guard. but cant deny he is a very efficient 3 level scorer with really good touch in the interior/midrange with floaters and stuff. i dont think he does enough creation to be considered a point guard. some people say he was held back by the system there and wasnt asked to do point guard things, but i didnt see many signs of playmaking during the tourney

with that said, having a jumbo sized PG like Castle is the antidote for that weakness, as they can cross-match defensively. i could see him being a good 6th man scorer.

I think that's fair but where we're picking, the productive ball handlers are typically going to be shorter. But I think 6'2 scorers are still useful and good value in the teens. It feels like every year there's a good player just like Richardson that is picked in the teens. I'm thinking of Maxey and McCain to name a few...

[The Truth #6]

I also appreciate Queen, another archetype that is sometimes undervalued: Fat Guy with Skills.

I just don't know how well he fits on the team, or rather how much more patience I have for another player who will either go underutilized or thrust into an inappropriate role. I don't trust our coaches to make Queen work. basically.

[Vienna]

Kon Knueppel has brothers named Klay, Kole, and Klint. Jesus Christ, white people.

not exaclty. It’s in fact four brothers and they are named Kinston, Kash, Kidman and Kager. doesn‘t make it sound less weird I guess.

[spurraider21]

I think that's fair but where we're picking, the productive ball handlers are typically going to be shorter. But I think 6'2 scorers are still useful and good value in the teens. It feels like every year there's a good player just like Richardson that is picked in the teens. I'm thinking of Maxey and McCain to name a few...
for sure. i just think we should be prioritizing wing shooting/size. i'd rather end up with bryant/fleming than richardson with the hawks pick. and i'd probably like sorber more as well. i think backup C is more dire than a backup small guard (particularly if Kon is a viable target with our earlier pick)

[scott]

Kon Knueppel has brothers named Klay, Kole, and Klint. Jesus Christ, white people.

What are their middle names... because... those parents might be trying to say something here that maybe the Spurs would be best avoiding...

[LeBowen]

What are their middle names... because... those parents might be trying to say something here that maybe the Spurs would be best avoiding...

We have David Duke, we'll be fine. :lol

Kon is just Kon the second, no middle name.

[Vienna]

What are their middle names... because... those parents might be trying to say something here that maybe the Spurs would be best avoiding...

I don‘t think they had enough ideas for middle names when they named their last kid …….Kid.

[thOOdee]

I have to agree in that Wemby is never going to be a down low center as he likes playing way outside and since he doesn’t have foot speed to beat people off the dribble he will mostly throw up a 3 ball. To me the biggest issue is will we have a smart enough coach to design a better offense and defense around Wemby but since this is about the draft I will keep my focus on it.

One thing I have come to understand is that that there is just one ball to go around and since we have Fox, Castle, and Wemby needing touches who ever we get is going to have to be able to make smart decisions and be able to shoot within a few seconds. It is going to be really interesting to see these players at the combine to see really what there measurements are. In the case of Queen if he shows up 20 pounds lighter he will probably go top 7 pretty easy if teams don’t get any Zion vibes from him. As far as this drafts lots of ways to go just really hope we have our new coach signed before we draft

First pick - Nipples, Queenie, and Fear
Hawks pick - Bryant, Dem, Flemming, Saraf, Liam


I think I'm coming around to Kon. Just trying to convince myself spurs will be missing out on a high reward player, but I think spurs' floor definitely gets lifted, and maybe that's more important.

[Dejounte]

I think I'm coming around to Kon. Just trying to convince myself spurs will be missing out on a high reward player, but I think spurs' floor definitely gets lifted, and maybe that's more important.

By getting high floor players, it sets up our high ceiling players up for success. Giving Castle and Wemby a reliable player to pass to and easily count on will be way better than a player who constantly makes mistakes. I think we were spoiled last year by Castle who got on the court and exceeded expectations all the time. That’s not normal for a rookie. He was able to do that because he was technically a high floor guy too. Get another one of those and enjoy the fireworks.

[scottspurs]

Thank you Scottspurs for your nice analysis!

Who would you pick based on your data? Just curious.

Cooper Flagg lol I kid I kid.

I’m assuming you mean if the Spurs pick at 8 and 15. Personally I want to take one last swing with the 8th pick so I’m all in on Derik Queen. I keep hearing about how bad of a defender he is blah blah blah. He plays a lot of really great defense on tape though and the metrics agree. The problem came when he fatigued because he was a “fat kid” his entire life and now he is taking care of his body and becoming more and more of an athlete. He may not be there at 8 though in which case I’m perfectly fine with Knueppel or Tre Johnson. If all three are gone which could happen especially if they get leaped and fall to 9 I say take a chance on Collin Murray-Boyles. He just does so many different things and I’m sure he can find a role on the team. If everything clicks he has the most potential.

With pick 15 I want a more pro ready player. Yaxel Lendeborg, Nique Clifford, Rasheer Fleming, Sion James or Cedric Coward. Also definitely down for some Thomas Sorber at 15 should he make it there. I actually started watching Essengue today and I like him too.

Short answer is Derik Queen and Nique Clifford.

In a dream world Hawks lose on Friday. Spurs move up to pick 1 and 2. Game over. Take Flagg field calls for 2. Ask for the world. Get 2 or 3 more future unprotected 1sts from a bad team. Win the next 10 championships.

[mo7888]

im not as high on richardson as a lot of people. to me he's more of an undersized SG than a point guard. but cant deny he is a very efficient 3 level scorer with really good touch in the interior/midrange with floaters and stuff. i dont think he does enough creation to be considered a point guard. some people say he was held back by the system there and wasnt asked to do point guard things, but i didnt see many signs of playmaking during the tourney

with that said, having a jumbo sized PG like Castle is the antidote for that weakness, as they can cross-match defensively. i could see him being a good 6th man scorer.

That's what he is right now. If he develops his PG skills he'll be a Fox replacement in a few years. If he doesn't he'd look great next to Castle coming off the bench.

[Mr. Body]

Forgot about it, but if we didn't trade the Chicago pick back to them, it'd very likely convey to us this year and stands at #13. Funny that we were closely tracking it for a while.

[rascal]

I think I'm coming around to Kon. Just trying to convince myself spurs will be missing out on a high reward player, but I think spurs' floor definitely gets lifted, and maybe that's more important.

He makes for a nice backup 2 guard. Spurs have Vassell and I don't see them wanting to trade him.
Let's burn the Spur's last top ten pick in awhile on a backup 2 guard while the team needs size and upgrades at SF and PF.

Go ahead Spurstalk continue on the Kon bandwagon just like you did with Sheppard last year and Sochan in 2022.

Although Kon is better than Sheppard in that he's bigger. But Spurstalk was so sure Sheppard's college shooting numbers would tranlate to the NBA.

[rascal]

Forgot about it, but if we didn't trade the Chicago pick back to them, it'd very likely convey to us this year and stands at #13. Funny that we were closely tracking it for a while.

Rather have Fox. Spurs are getting two picks this year

[mystargtr34]

Forgot about it, but if we didn't trade the Chicago pick back to them, it'd very likely convey to us this year and stands at #13. Funny that we were closely tracking it for a while.

The Bulls could have easily tanked a few games and kept themselves at 9 or 10. In fact they could have just had 3 more losses and still made the play in and kept their pick. But yeah, moot point.

[thOOdee]

He makes for a nice backup 2 guard. Spurs have Vassell and I don't see them wanting to trade him.
Let's burn the Spur's last top ten pick in awhile on a backup 2 guard while the team needs size and upgrades at SF and PF.

Go ahead Spurstalk continue on the Kon bandwagon just like you did with Sheppard last year and Sochan in 2022.

Although Kon is better than Sheppard in that he's bigger. But Spurstalk was so sure Sheppard's college shooting numbers would tranlate to the NBA.


I’d disagree that dv will be a longterm asset. Plus I’d definitely see a flemming/carter type player available for our second pick. If kon is selected first however, spurs definitely have to roll the dice for a riskier play w their second pick.

[CGD]

I also appreciate Queen, another archetype that is sometimes undervalued: Fat Guy with Skills.

I just don't know how well he fits on the team, or rather how much more patience I have for another player who will either go underutilized or thrust into an inappropriate role. I don't trust our coaches to make Queen work. basically.

I heard someone make a Jared Sullinger comp to him, and I ran for the hills.

[ambchang]

Weather app says it's sunny in Slovenia, idk what could be the issue.

It’s bad news when the groundhog can see its shadow. Same applies to the hamster.

[keithington1]

If the Spurs drafted Queen and Richardson they’d be the SHOWTIME SPURS

[Biggems]

IMO, a great draft for the Spurs would be

Kneuppel
Sorber
Broome

Kneuppel is a lethal shooter, something we are desperate for. However, he can also drive and attack the paint. He is a good passer. He is also a solid defender. He is not the most athletic specimen in the draft, but his ball IQ and skill set is high.

Sorber could be the next great GTown big. His game is modest and composed. He has some legit low post moves on offense. His rebounding is pretty good and he a force on defense.

Broome is the main reason I even watched college basketball this year. He is my favorite prospect in the draft. He has the toughness and grit you need in a low post presence. He is a great leader on the court. His low post game is well developed. He can stroke it from outside. He is the best rebounder in the draft and he blocks a ton of shots. The biggest weakness in his game is FT shooting I can live with that.

Draft these 3 players and sign Yasebule.

[Guru of Nothing]

IMO, a great draft for the Spurs would be

Kneuppel
Sorber
Broome

Kneuppel is a lethal shooter, something we are desperate for. However, he can also drive and attack the paint. He is a good passer. He is also a solid defender. He is not the most athletic specimen in the draft, but his ball IQ and skill set is high.

Sorber could be the next great GTown big. His game is modest and composed. He has some legit low post moves on offense. His rebounding is pretty good and he a force on defense.

Broome is the main reason I even watched college basketball this year. He is my favorite prospect in the draft. He has the toughness and grit you need in a low post presence. He is a great leader on the court. His low post game is well developed. He can stroke it from outside. He is the best rebounder in the draft and he blocks a ton of shots. The biggest weakness in his game is FT shooting I can live with that.

Draft these 3 players and sign Yasebule.

Sorber, Broome, Yasebule... Username checks out.

[John B]

^ I’m down with Kneuppel, Sorber and Broome. The problem is, after picking Kneuppel at 8th, and Sorber (and Queen) are gone at 15th, Spurs missed out on the biggest bullies of this draft, and I doubt Broome is available at 38th. But yeah sure, that would be a great draft, a high bball shooter, and two big defensive bullies in the paint.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

By getting high floor players, it sets up our high ceiling players up for success. Giving Castle and Wemby a reliable player to pass to and easily count on will be way better than a player who constantly makes mistakes. I think we were spoiled last year by Castle who got on the court and exceeded expectations all the time. That’s not normal for a rookie. He was able to do that because he was technically a high floor guy too. Get another one of those and enjoy the fireworks.

Totally agree with you now! We have to pick Kon if he is available.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Cooper Flagg lol I kid I kid.

I’m assuming you mean if the Spurs pick at 8 and 15. Personally I want to take one last swing with the 8th pick so I’m all in on Derik Queen. I keep hearing about how bad of a defender he is blah blah blah. He plays a lot of really great defense on tape though and the metrics agree. The problem came when he fatigued because he was a “fat kid” his entire life and now he is taking care of his body and becoming more and more of an athlete. He may not be there at 8 though in which case I’m perfectly fine with Knueppel or Tre Johnson. If all three are gone which could happen especially if they get leaped and fall to 9 I say take a chance on Collin Murray-Boyles. He just does so many different things and I’m sure he can find a role on the team. If everything clicks he has the most potential.

With pick 15 I want a more pro ready player. Yaxel Lendeborg, Nique Clifford, Rasheer Fleming, Sion James or Cedric Coward. Also definitely down for some Thomas Sorber at 15 should he make it there. I actually started watching Essengue today and I like him too.

Short answer is Derik Queen and Nique Clifford.

In a dream world Hawks lose on Friday. Spurs move up to pick 1 and 2. Game over. Take Flagg field calls for 2. Ask for the world. Get 2 or 3 more future unprotected 1sts from a bad team. Win the next 10 championships.

Thank you Bro! I'm more warming to Queen now since some of you data guys really like him. I don't mind picking him at 15. But I'm pretty sure he will be top 6.

[Vienna]

dilemma question: 5 out of 10 mocks I looked at have Tre Johnson picked top 5. 2 have him at 6 and 7.
but 3 have him in the Spurs region, at 8, 9 and 10.
Tre might be on the board, when the Spurs pick.
not considering a lottery shake up, it would take the Sixers, Nets and Raptors to pass on him, which I can see.
Sixers and Nets likely go big in Queen and Maluach, Raptors already have a ton of guards.

so....Spurs need size, but would they pass on a shooting talent like Tre? (especially if they ship out Devin). in a few years he might form an exceptional back court with Castle.

if they pick Tre, they can hope for one out of Bryant and Newell to fall to 15. if both are gone, CMB and McNeeley will likely still be on the board. works for me.

[ginobilized]

Here's a super-simplified outlook. We need a combo of shooters and bangers:

Shooters: Kon, Richardson,McNeeley

Bangers: Maluach,Sorber, Broome

Combo: Fleming, maybe Murray-Boyles

The Spurs will likely go for BPA as they always do vs drafting for fit.

Free agency and trades might fill these roles with perennial ST fav Cam Johnson somehow landing here. Yabusele, Reid, LaRavia, Aldama, and even Luke Kornet might be targets for the Spurs and could influence how the draft plays out.

[said7]

How far could you move up in the draft by trading 2 firsts and Devin?

[onechance87]

We do need a defensive big bad.We dont have any guarantees with wembys health for the future.

[LeBowen]

Since only three players are guaranteed to be on the roster long term, BPA is still the way to go except for non-shooting guards/wings.
We need another guard with playmaking ability, multiple wings and another big.

[CGD]

^ I’m down with Kneuppel, Sorber and Broome. The problem is, after picking Kneuppel at 8th, and Sorber (and Queen) are gone at 15th, Spurs missed out on the biggest bullies of this draft, and I doubt Broome is available at 38th. But yeah sure, that would be a great draft, a high bball shooter, and two big defensive bullies in the paint.

They can just sign Steve Adams or my preferred UFA target, Brooke Lopez

[CGD]

How far could you move up in the draft by trading 2 firsts and Devin?

Not Flagg high enough

[CGD]

Here's a super-simplified outlook. We need a combo of shooters and bangers:

Shooters: Kon, Richardson,McNeeley

Bangers: Maluach,Sorber, Broome

Combo: Fleming, maybe Murray-Boyles

The Spurs will likely go for BPA as they always do vs drafting for fit.

Free agency and trades might fill these roles with perennial ST fav Cam Johnson somehow landing here. Yabusele, Reid, LaRavia, Aldama, and even Luke Kornet might be targets for the Spurs and could influence how the draft plays out.

With respect to shooter, I think we are collectively sleeping on Kasparas. Like the others, an elite shooter with limited defense. But, I think this guy has the playmaking chops that only Kon has.

[cutewizard]

https://youtu.be/tPNEX_lLh8k?si=B3UpCgguJrd0tXVR

[John B]

Here's a super-simplified outlook. We need a combo of shooters and bangers:

Shooters: Kon, Richardson,McNeeley

Bangers: Maluach,Sorber, Broome

Combo: Fleming, maybe Murray-Boyles

The Spurs will likely go for BPA as they always do vs drafting for fit.

Free agency and trades might fill these roles with perennial ST fav Cam Johnson somehow landing here. Yabusele, Reid, LaRavia, Aldama, and even Luke Kornet might be targets for the Spurs and could influence how the draft plays out.

Samanic, Devin, Primo, Sochan were not the BPA's. Wemby and Castle were obvious. But Spurs have always been searching for that "Spurs typical" player, a mobile big like Diaw (Samanic, Sochan), a defensive guard (Devin*, Primo). And heavily relied on their performance at the Combine. Lonnie tested high on vertical and lane agility. Honestly Spurs' scouting has been underwhelming missing out on Haliburton, J-Dubs, Sengun, Tari among others.

Rebounding and a big bruiser to help Wemby are the obvious needs, plus a backup PG. I'm hoping a combination of Queen/Sorber and Fleming/Bryant/Wolf, and a backup PG someone like Boogie Fland in the 2nd round.

[exstatic]

Samanic, Devin, Primo, Sochan were not the BPA's. Wemby and Castle were obvious. But Spurs have always been searching for that "Spurs typical" player, a mobile big like Diaw (Samanic, Sochan), a defensive guard (Devin*, Primo). And heavily relied on their performance at the Combine. Lonnie tested high on vertical and lane agility. Honestly Spurs' scouting has been underwhelming missing out on Haliburton, J-Dubs, Sengun, Tari among others.

Rebounding and a big bruiser to help Wemby are the obvious needs, plus a backup PG. I'm hoping a combination of Queen/Sorber and Fleming/Bryant/Wolf, and a backup PG someone like Boogie Fland in the 2nd round.

As prospects,they were BPA on the Spurs board.

[John B]

They can just sign Steve Adams or my preferred UFA target, Brooke Lopez

They would if it were 5 years ago. I would be disappointed if Spurs didn't take a swing on at least one big with the same time-line as Wemby.

[John B]

As prospects,they were BPA on the Spurs board.

Primo was BPA??? Come on man. That was a big swing, and a big miss. I understand the reason (it took me months to finally reconcile with myself), but nah, Primo was NOT BPA. Missing out on obvious BPA's Sengun, Duren, even Jalen Johnson (questionable character* but obviously very talented). Spurs concept of BPA is suspect.

[scottspurs]

If the Spurs traded Vassell. Also depends on what he gets traded for, but Tre Johnson would be a wonderful pick. No offense to the Kon or die folks but Johnson is 2 or 3 levels above him as a scorer. The stats don’t show it but Tre showed some playmaking chops. He played on a terrible Texas team that he dragged to the NCAA tournament. After his teammates missed shot after shot he would go into F it I’ll do it myself mode. He actually tried to be a team guy most of the time though. Terrible Coaching. I watched every Texas game this year and I’m convinced they would have been under .500 without him. On defense Tre was basically hidden so he could conserve his energy. Energy he needed to carry the offense. He has length so I think he can be disruptive in the NBA. Needs to put on some wiry strength though.

As the team is constructed right now Kon would be the better fit between the 2 shooters but without Vassell the Spurs would need Tre’s scoring. Kon is more of a connector/glue guy. Tre is an All-star level scorer. Defenses focused on him. He was able to finish at the rim pretty well when they didn’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if he led all rookies in scoring next season. If you get him to play respectful defense he could be Reggie Miller. Kon reminds me more of Eric Gordon on offense. Can shoot and uses his body well despite the lack of explosiveness. Kon is the higher IQ player. The better passer. Defensively not sure who will be better. Kon has the IQ and more bulk but Tre moves his feet better, is longer and overall the better athlete.

Im just saying don’t right off Tre Johnson and live in the Kon is the only shooter the Spurs could look for in the top 10. Both are tremendous prospects.

[scottspurs]

With Johni Broome it’s going to come down to what he measures at. If he is the listed 6’10 with shoes he will be a 10-year pro. At the very least a long term back up big that contributes to winning. I suspect he might be shorter and not have a great wingspan. If he checks in at like 6’8 or 6’9 and the athletic testing doesn’t check out. I would have serious concerns. The metrics love him though. Could be a better college player than pro for these reasons.

[John B]

If the Spurs traded Vassell. Also depends on what he gets traded for, but Tre Johnson would be a wonderful pick. No offense to the Kon or die folks but Johnson is 2 or 3 levels above him as a scorer. The stats don’t show it but Tre showed some playmaking chops. He played on a terrible Texas team that he dragged to the NCAA tournament. After his teammates missed shot after shot he would go into F it I’ll do it myself mode. He actually tried to be a team guy most of the time though. Terrible Coaching. I watched every Texas game this year and I’m convinced they would have been under .500 without him. On defense Tre was basically hidden so he could conserve his energy. Energy he needed to carry the offense. He has length so I think he can be disruptive in the NBA. Needs to put on some wiry strength though.

As the team is constructed right now Kon would be the better fit between the 2 shooters but without Vassell the Spurs would need Tre’s scoring. Kon is more of a connector/glue guy. Tre is an All-star level scorer. Defenses focused on him. He was able to finish at the rim pretty well when they didn’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if he led all rookies in scoring next season. If you get him to play respectful defense he could be Reggie Miller. Kon reminds me more of Eric Gordon on offense. Can shoot and uses his body well despite the lack of explosiveness. Kon is the higher IQ player. The better passer. Defensively not sure who will be better. Kon has the IQ and more bulk but Tre moves his feet better, is longer and overall the better athlete.

Im just saying don’t right off Tre Johnson and live in the Kon is the only shooter the Spurs could look for in the top 10. Both are tremendous prospects.

I get that Tre Johnson is the better scorer, but Kon is the better fit between the two. As you said, Kon is a glue-guy. Spurs already have Wemby, Fox and Castle. You don't have room for Tre Johnson to shine like a Reggie Miller.

But again I'd secure a big bruiser to help Wemby first, before I draft a SG/SF shooter.

[scottspurs]

^ I’m down with Kneuppel, Sorber and Broome. The problem is, after picking Kneuppel at 8th, and Sorber (and Queen) are gone at 15th, Spurs missed out on the biggest bullies of this draft, and I doubt Broome is available at 38th. But yeah sure, that would be a great draft, a high bball shooter, and two big defensive bullies in the paint.

This is my worry. Queen, Sorber, Maluach (doesn’t really fit with Spurs), Fleming, Collin Murray-Boyles could all be gone by pick 15. Then what. You double down and draft Richardson or Jakucionis. Would the spurs be high on Lendeborg. Asa Newell? Reach for the next wave of bigs. Maybe Beringer the Raw French guy. Steven Adams would be nice but he can only play so many minutes these days. Spurs need a big body. To me it’s the biggest need. I love the philosophy of best player available. It’s not a bad strategy when you are a lottery team. But at some point you have to fix what needs fixing.

[John B]

This is my worry. Queen, Sorber, Maluach (doesn’t really fit with Spurs), Fleming, Collin Murray-Boyles could all be gone by pick 15. Then what. You double down and draft Richardson or Jakucionis. Would the spurs be high on Lendeborg. Asa Newell? Reach for the next wave of bigs. Maybe Beringer the Raw French guy. Steven Adams would be nice but he can only play so many minutes these days. Spurs need a big body. To me it’s the biggest need. I love the philosophy of best player available. It’s not a bad strategy when you are a lottery team. But at some point you have to fix what needs fixing.

Johni Broome could be an insurance at 15th (a stretch) if Spurs missed out on Queen, Sorber, Malauch. Getting Broome when they had a chance at Queen/Sorber/Malauch would be veryyy underwhelming, but they could get Kon or Tre Johnson at 8th. Then Boogie Fland at 2nd round. (I love this kid as backup PG at 2nd round)

[scottspurs]

Johni Broome could be an insurance at 15th (a stretch) if Spurs missed out on Queen, Sorber, Malauch. Getting Broome when they had a chance at Queen/Sorber/Malauch would be veryyy underwhelming, but they could get Kon or Tre Johnson at 8th. Then Boogie Fland at 2nd round. (I love this kid as backup PG at 2nd round)

If Broome measures at 6’10 I would be okay with it. Definitely a reach though. Something the Spurs are not afraid to do

[CorrectCrusader]

We need versatile defensive wings. That is our need

[scottspurs]

For those of us that are Team Queen. The 2 teams I worry that might pick him ahead of the Spurs are the Wizards and 76ers. He would fit really well next to Sarr in Washington. 76ers with Daryl Morey are analytics driven and the 5 players the metrics like most in the top 10 are Flagg, Queen, Knueppel, Tre Johnson and Khaman Maluach. Out of those players I think Queen fits the 76ers best.

[rjv]

This is my worry. Queen, Sorber, Maluach (doesn’t really fit with Spurs), Fleming, Collin Murray-Boyles could all be gone by pick 15. Then what. You double down and draft Richardson or Jakucionis. Would the spurs be high on Lendeborg. Asa Newell? Reach for the next wave of bigs. Maybe Beringer the Raw French guy. Steven Adams would be nice but he can only play so many minutes these days. Spurs need a big body. To me it’s the biggest need. I love the philosophy of best player available. It’s not a bad strategy when you are a lottery team. But at some point you have to fix what needs fixing.

Still a chance Hawks pick falls to 12th. If ATL loses to the Heat and the Mavs beat Memphis, then Hawks and Grizzlies flip a coin and the winner secures the 12th spot.

[John B]

For those of us that are Team Queen. The 2 teams I worry that might pick him ahead of the Spurs are the Wizards and 76ers. He would fit really well next to Sarr in Washington. 76ers with Daryl Morey are analytics driven and the 5 players the metrics like most in the top 10 are Flagg, Queen, Knueppel, Tre Johnson and Khaman Maluach. Out of those players I think Queen fits the 76ers best.

Man, Sarr and Queen would be crazy. It's what I want the Spurs to rather have, Wemby and Queen.

[John B]

How about Boogie Fland for Spurs' 2nd round pick? He'll make you forget Dilly if you haven't so.


https://youtu.be/5v4L-L5JMco?si=scQYAIYOmskNjGCR

[jjspur]

https://youtu.be/tPNEX_lLh8k?si=B3UpCgguJrd0tXVR

After the combine , I think Broome goes top 20. Some team will scoop him up as their backup center.

[mo7888]

How about Boogie Fland for Spurs' 2nd round pick? He'll make you forget Dilly if you haven't so.


https://youtu.be/5v4L-L5JMco?si=scQYAIYOmskNjGCR

It wouldn't be a bad pick there. It just depends if we move one of our higher picks or prefer a draft and stash type.

[Guru of Nothing]

Am I the only one out on Queen?

It's cherry picking, but I can't get past a 22 game stretch of 0-9 from three. Can someone paint me a rosy, yet plausible outcome for Queen playing alongside Wemby, Fox, and Castle?

[Biggems]

Sorber, Broome, Yasebule... Username checks out.

What does that mean?

[Biggems]

Am I the only one out on Queen?

It's cherry picking, but I can't get past a 22 game stretch of 0-9 from three. Can someone paint me a rosy, yet plausible outcome for Queen playing alongside Wemby, Fox, and Castle?

I cannot

[CGD]

Am I the only one out on Queen?

It's cherry picking, but I can't get past a 22 game stretch of 0-9 from three. Can someone paint me a rosy, yet plausible outcome for Queen playing alongside Wemby, Fox, and Castle?

I think it’s just a few loud Queen enthusiasts. He’d be a terrible pick with 8 in my view.

[John B]

Am I the only one out on Queen?

It's cherry picking, but I can't get past a 22 game stretch of 0-9 from three. Can someone paint me a rosy, yet plausible outcome for Queen playing alongside Wemby, Fox, and Castle?

It's not like you want him taking the 3's, but he won't be shy. Queen is there to flatten the ground for Wemby.

Dude is a bully in the middle, will command double-team. Guess who's there lurking around?

Wemby can be the most opportunistic player in the NBA ever. The guy is 7'5 with plenty of skills, except backing down his defender. You make somebody else do that at the post, and make it easier for Wemby to score. His body and knees would like not having to push people.

[CGD]

I get that Tre Johnson is the better scorer, but Kon is the better fit between the two. As you said, Kon is a glue-guy. Spurs already have Wemby, Fox and Castle. You don't have room for Tre Johnson to shine like a Reggie Miller.

But again I'd secure a big bruiser to help Wemby first, before I draft a SG/SF shooter.

What I like about drafting Tre Johnson is that it’s like resetting the Vassell contract. Frees you up to move Devin while adding a nice bench gunner in Tre, which I think is where most of us see Devs future on the Spurs if he stays. Why not do it for cheaper?

[LeBowen]

What I like about drafting Tre Johnson is that it’s like resetting the Vassell contract. Frees you up to move Devin while adding a nice bench gunner in Tre, which I think is where most of us see Devs future on the Spurs if he stays. Why not do it for cheaper?

To reset Devin's contract we'd need to move him.
Went over it a couple of times, but I don't see a team that would want him and has the return Spurs would want.
The only way would be to trade him to a tanking team. But then again, would they want to take on his contract?

[R. DeMurre]

Interesting article on The Athletic site today about OKC and their use of Holmgren and Hartenstein. Here are a few sentences from it:

The Holmgren and Hartenstein twin-tower combination outscored opponents by 96 points in their 316 minutes together. It had an offensive rating of 122.9 and a defensive rating of 109.4, both impressive.
It is, unsurprisingly, the best rebounding combination (77.4 percent rebound rate) of any of their top-50 most used two-man groups. They’ve walled off the basket. Daigneault called Holmgren and Hartenstein “easily” two of the league’s top-10 rim protectors. But it’s the other side that has him encouraged.
“The offensive flow that we’ve been able to maintain with two seven-footers on the floor (is key),” Daigneault said. “It’s something that always concerns you when you go super big. But I think it speaks to how skilled those guys are. They’re both in their own way very dynamic.”

[Guru of Nothing]

What does that mean?

As in, Biggems likes big players.

[CGD]

To reset Devin's contract we'd need to move him.
Went over it a couple of times, but I don't see a team that would want him and has the return Spurs would want.
The only way would be to trade him to a tanking team. But then again, would they want to take on his contract?

I think the Devin market will be more robust than we think on this forum. He’d be perfect on an emerging team like Orlando for example. I can also see west playoff teams having interest (eg Warriors), but not sure the Spurs would be willing to send him to a rival.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Am I the only one out on Queen?

It's cherry picking, but I can't get past a 22 game stretch of 0-9 from three. Can someone paint me a rosy, yet plausible outcome for Queen playing alongside Wemby, Fox, and Castle?

Why, can’t you imagine Queen playing next to Wemby and running around guarding the Tatums and Durants? Or packing the paint offensively and reducing your actual franchise center to a Myles Turner role?

Oh you said rosy..

It’s just that some people still live in the past. Can’t imagine anyone watching even these last play in games and thinking hmmm we must have less shooting and spacing.

[LeBowen]

I think the Devin market will be more robust than we think on this forum. He’d be perfect on an emerging team like Orlando for example. I can also see west playoff teams having interest (eg Warriors), but not sure the Spurs would be willing to send him to a rival.

You forgot about what comes our way.
Warriors have nothing to offer unless you want Draymond.
Magic have washed KCP, always injured Isaac, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris.
WCJ is their only player I'd be interested in, but we'd have to take one or two of those garbage players alongside him. No deal since none is on an expiring contract.

[mo7888]

You forgot about what comes our way.
Warriors have nothing to offer unless you want Draymond.
Magic have washed KCP, always injured Isaac, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris.
WCJ is their only player I'd be interested in, but we'd have to take one or two of those garbage players alongside him. No deal since none is on an expiring contract.

Devin for WCJ + Isaac or Anthony... sign me up..

[scott]

Primo was BPA??? Come on man. That was a big swing, and a big miss. I understand the reason (it took me months to finally reconcile with myself), but nah, Primo was NOT BPA. Missing out on obvious BPA's Sengun, Duren, even Jalen Johnson (questionable character* but obviously very talented). Spurs concept of BPA is suspect.

I agree with exstatic. All of the guys you mentioned were more than likely rated as the BPA on the Spurs board when the drafted them.

Whether or not the Spurs suck at ranking prospects, is a wholly different question.

[scott]

You forgot about what comes our way.
Warriors have nothing to offer unless you want Draymond.
Magic have washed KCP, always injured Isaac, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris.
WCJ is their only player I'd be interested in, but we'd have to take one or two of those garbage players alongside him. No deal since none is on an expiring contract.

I'd take a series of expirings for Devin. Addition by subtraction.

[CGD]

You forgot about what comes our way.
Warriors have nothing to offer unless you want Draymond.
Magic have washed KCP, always injured Isaac, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris.
WCJ is their only player I'd be interested in, but we'd have to take one or two of those garbage players alongside him. No deal since none is on an expiring contract.

I was thinking a deal built around WCJ, filler and a pick for Devin.

[John B]

I agree with exstatic (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=20). All of the guys you mentioned were more than likely rated as the BPA on the Spurs board when the drafted them.

Whether or not the Spurs suck at ranking prospects, is a wholly different question.

Then I don’t know what BPA is. I thought that’s the general consensus on who’s the Best Player Available and not subjective on the team's view. Because when Primo was selected, there were multiple players including Sengun, who the general consensus is the BPA.

[jjspur]

If the spurs are are looking to unload Devin, they should look to for another team that has a similarly paid player who has underperformed. They'll be wanting to trade their player as well. He's not a bad player by any means, he may just not fit on the next version of the spurs moving forward.

[mudyez]

Would you take Maluach or Knueppel if both are on the board at #8?...assuming it's the Tankathon Mock but Fears and Queen jumped a few spots.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Why, can’t you imagine Queen playing next to Wemby and running around guarding the Tatums and Durants? Or packing the paint offensively and reducing your actual franchise center to a Myles Turner role?

Oh you said rosy..

It’s just that some people still live in the past. Can’t imagine anyone watching even these last play in games and thinking hmmm we must have less shooting and spacing.


I'm with you on this. Queen or Sorber will clog the driving lanes for Fox and Castle. That's why I like Fleming type of player who can shoot 3s and defend the other teams' bigs.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I'd take a series of expirings for Devin. Addition by subtraction.

I would give Devin for free just to free money to sign a shooter.

[Dejounte]

I'm with you on this. Queen or Sorber will clog the driving lanes for Fox and Castle. That's why I like Fleming type of player who can shoot 3s and defend the other teams' bigs.
Does Isaiah Hartenstein clog the lane for JDub and SGA?
Does Jarrett Allen clog the lane for Donovan Mitchell and Garland?
Does Sengun clog the lane for Jalen Green and Amen?
Is Jaxson Hayes clogging the lane for the Lakers?

guys, old school bigs exist in the NBA and they’re on successful teams right now.

[spurraider21]

Would you take Maluach or Knueppel if both are on the board at #8?...assuming it's the Tankathon Mock but Fears and Queen jumped a few spots.
if those are my only 2 options, Knueppel easily

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Does Isaiah Hartenstein clog the lane for JDub and SGA?
Does Jarrett Allen clog the lane for Donovan Mitchell and Garland?
Does Sengun clog the lane for Jalen Green and Amen?
Is Jaxson Hayes clogging the lane for the Lakers?

guys, old school bigs exist in the NBA and they’re on successful teams right now.

Problem is, Fox and castle are not solid 3 point shooters yet. They cannot open the lane themselves.

All the above guards you mentioned can shoot 3s wells. That's the big difference that Spurs front office cannot ignore.

[scottspurs]

People acting like Queen is an old school big lol.

[CGD]

Would you take Maluach or Knueppel if both are on the board at #8?...assuming it's the Tankathon Mock but Fears and Queen jumped a few spots.

I’ve been thinking about this scenario. If the shot form looks good during private workouts, my inclination is to go Malauch at 8. Then hope one of Liam or Kasparas is there at 15.

[CGD]

People acting like Queen is an old school big lol.

Well he’s definitely not new school.

[spurraider21]

Does Isaiah Hartenstein clog the lane for JDub and SGA?
Does Jarrett Allen clog the lane for Donovan Mitchell and Garland?
Does Sengun clog the lane for Jalen Green and Amen?
Is Jaxson Hayes clogging the lane for the Lakers?

guys, old school bigs exist in the NBA and they’re on successful teams right now.
its not so much clogging the lane for drivers. the guys can be pick and roll partners.

right now, wemby's style of play (other than transition 3's) requires a lot of room for him to operate. its why he has played much better as the sole big on the floor, compared to sharing with Collins/Bassey/Barlow. the only other "big" he showed consistent chemistry with was Mamu, who plays a face-up, floor-spacer role.

you also then look to the other side of the floor. early last year the spurs had wemby on the perimeter more, flailing at 3 point shots. when he became the center, his defensive impact really took off. yes he can get by on the perimeter and make an impact there. but he's worlds better near the rim for obvious reasons. having guys like Queen/Sorber defend 4's could be catastrophic.

it works for Cleveland with Allen because Mobley is a ridiculously versatile defender (expected to win DPOY). houston doesnt play Sengun next to another true big. the lakers dont with Hayes.

OKC is content with Chet on the perimeter when sharing the floor with hartenstein. and they dont run offense through Chet

[RC_Drunkford]

How about Boogie Fland for Spurs' 2nd round pick? He'll make you forget Dilly if you haven't so.


https://youtu.be/5v4L-L5JMco?si=scQYAIYOmskNjGCR

they say he boxes out. Well that's something most our roster doesn't do. The bar is low :lol

[scottspurs]

Well he’s definitely not new school.

He is not an old School rim running Post up banger only. He can facilitate and has elite playmaking skills for his size. He is a willing shooter that shot 5-11 from the 3pt line during tournament play. He has great handles for his size. He was the focal point of the offense whether he played inside or out. Sets great screens. Gets to the Free Throw line better than any Big in this class. Was able to switch onto smaller players defensively until he got fatigued late in games. Grades out as one of the best defensive players in this class according to the metrics. High IQ player that grabs boards. Solid fundamentals all around. As he continues to become a better athlete he will be a monster on both sides of the ball.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Both camps seem to be reasonable regarding Queen. Scottspurs (and Dejounte) camp must have seen something I miss. Thank you guys for your input!

I hope Queen will be available at #8 and lets see what front office will do. This years draft is the most fun one.

[Dejounte]

I’m going to do my tier system a different way. The ATL pick is highly dependent on the SA pick.

Assumption: Flagg and Harper are both gone.

First choice with our pick: Kon
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Sorber
If Sorber’s gone, then Jase Richardson
if Jase’s gone, then Egor Demin
if Egor is gone, then CMB
… I call this the “High IQ” group and the scenario I feel is most likely to happen

Second choice with our pick: VJ Edgecombe
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Sorber
if Sorber’s gone, then CMB
if CMB’s gone, then Fleming
… I call this group, “Clamps”

Third choice with our pick: Sorber
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Fleming
if Fleming’s gone, then CMB
if CMB’s gone, then Noa Essengue
if Noa’s gone, then Yaxel Lendeborg
… I call this group, “Physicality”

Fourth choice with our pick: Derik Queen
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Jase Richardson
if Jase’s gone, then Egor Demin
if Egor’s gone, then Ben Saraf
if Ben’s gone, then Danny Wolf
… I call this group the “Showtime Spurs”. I view this as the most unlikely scenario.

[The Truth #6]

Even though I've advocated for Fleming, I see the appeal of Queen. In reality, he would likely spend the season as the backup center to get acclimated and then maybe try to play with VW, and see what happens. There's also a chance he's great as a backup and we have a positive asset and someone to spare from overplaying VW coming off this injury and likely surgery. In that scenario I can realistically get behind Queen. Even more so with a new coach. And ideally an updated development staff.

[spurraider21]

if we take Queen with our earlier pick then id definitely advocate for Fleming as the second pick. if we aren't getting rim protection from our backup C we damn well better get some from a forward

but id rather take Sorber with the later pick than Queen with the earlier pick if we are talking backup centers

[Dejounte]

if we take Queen with our earlier pick then id definitely advocate for Fleming as the second pick. if we aren't getting rim protection from our backup C we damn well better get some from a forward

but id rather take Sorber with the later pick than Queen with the earlier pick if we are talking backup centers

Tbh Queen was showing a lot of confidence shooting the 3 during the tournament, moreso than someone like CMB did at any point. If there was a non proven shooter right now who could learn the 3 in the NBA, I think Queen is the best bet to learn it the quickest. Confidence is everything and that’s why I’m also betting on Castle to be a good shooter soon since he never gave up shooting 3’s all throughout the season.

[scott]

they say he boxes out. Well that's something most our roster doesn't do. The bar is low :lol

I'm ready for PG Boogie Fland to lead our team in rebounding :lol

[spurraider21]

Tbh Queen was showing a lot of confidence shooting the 3 during the tournament, moreso than someone like CMB did at any point. If there was a non proven shooter right now who could learn the 3 in the NBA, I think Queen is the best bet to learn it the quickest. Confidence is everything and that’s why I’m also betting on Castle to be a good shooter soon since he never gave up shooting 3’s all throughout the season.
tbh queen should 7-35 from 3 for the season and CMB shot 9-34

im not hopefu about either. though i think queen is a more skilled handler/passer than CMB and seems more comfortable hitting pull up middies. queen also shot about 77% from the line compared to 71% for CMB

with that said, if you are looking at compatability at the 4, queen's lateral movement defensively is... ok-ish. CMB is very good in that respect.

i dont like either for us personally. but queen has more upside for sure

[exstatic]

Am I the only one out on Queen?

It's cherry picking, but I can't get past a 22 game stretch of 0-9 from three. Can someone paint me a rosy, yet plausible outcome for Queen playing alongside Wemby, Fox, and Castle?

No, you’re not.

[exstatic]

Then I don’t know what BPA is. I thought that’s the general consensus on who’s the Best Player Available and not subjective on the team's view. Because when Primo was selected, there were multiple players including Sengun, who the general consensus is the BPA.

Spurs set up their own 60 player draft board,and draft the highest remaining guy when one of their picks rolls around. They don’t draft based on concensus or mocks. They do have different requirements from most teams. I’ve always said that probably only 20-25% of NBA players could play here.

[scottspurs]

It does seem to be true that the Spurs will take players off their board if they have character or culture fit concerns.

[scottspurs]

Which makes the Joshua Primo pick that much more hilarious in hindsight

[exstatic]

Which makes the Joshua Primo pick that much more hilarious in hindsight

Everybody misses, sometimes. All you can do is a background check, and if people hide shit from you, there isn’t a lot you can do.

[Mr. Body]

1. The Spurs got burned as fuck by Kawhi, who turned out to be a turncoat asshole of the highest order.

2. Primo did show signs of being a good dude, and I'm sure Nick Oats gave glowing recs when he was called, among other people.

2b. Whether Nick Oats knew about his sexual obsession of exposing himself and lied about it, we don't know.

3. The Spurs fucked up by not taking Sengun, as many here wanted. So did a lot of teams. Presti drafted him and immediately trade him to the rival Rockets.

4. It will never be clear whether Primo would have been alright if he could have been developed. He was showing flashes, although was a long-term thing.

But yeah, character became an even bigger consideration after Kawhi stabbed an icy dagger in their back.

[scottspurs]

Analytics Deep Dive 11


DRAPM, short for Defensive Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus, is a basketball statistic that measures a player's defensive impact relative to the team's performance on a per-100 possessions basis, after accounting for the quality of their teammates and opponents. It's part of the broader RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus) system, which also includes ORAPM (Offensive RAPM). RAPM is considered a more unbiased and accurate method of evaluating player performance compared to traditional box score statistics


Here's a more detailed breakdown:




1. What is RAPM?


RAPM is an advanced statistic that attempts to isolate a player's impact on a team's scoring margin, controlling for the strength of their teammates and opponents.

It's calculated using play-by-play data from multiple seasons, typically the last three, and uses a linear regression model to estimate a player's contribution.

RAPM is considered a more robust measure of player impact than traditional plus-minus because it accounts for the quality of the players on the court at any given time.




2. How is DRAPM calculated?


DRAPM is a component of RAPM, specifically measuring a player's defensive contribution.
It's calculated using the same principles as RAPM, but focusing on the defensive impact.
The calculation involves analyzing each possession, considering the players on the court, their roles (offensive or defensive), and the resulting score differential.




3. Why is DRAPM important?


DRAPM helps to quantify a player's defensive impact beyond what's visible in traditional box scores.
It provides a more objective assessment of a player's defensive capabilities, especially in the context of their specific team and matchups.
It can be used to identify defensive strengths and weaknesses, as well as to compare players on a more equitable basis.




4. How to interpret DRAPM?


A higher DRAPM value generally indicates a greater defensive impact.

DRAPM is typically expressed in points per 100 possessions, allowing for easier comparison between players.

By comparing a player's DRAPM to the league average or to other players, you can gain insight into their defensive effectiveness.




In essence, DRAPM is a powerful tool for basketball analysts and fans who want to go beyond traditional box score statistics to understand a player's true impact on the defensive end of the court


Here are the top DRAPM players in this draft class (excluding international players)




Thomas Sorber- 6.1
Kam Jones- 5.0
Cooper Flagg- 5.0
Sion James- 4.4
Walter Clayton Jr.- 4.3
Derik Queen- 4.1
Danny Wolf- 4.0
Kon Knueppel- 3.9
Carter Bryant- 3.6
Jase Richardson- 3.4
Nique Clifford- 3.4
Liam Mcneely- 3.2
Tyrese Proctor- 3.2
Adou Thiero- 3.2
Chaz Lanier- 3.1
Kobe Johnson- 3.1
Collin Murray-Boyles- 3.1
Boogie Fland- 2.8
Khaman Maluach- 2.7
Miles Byrd 2.5



Top 20 DRAPM prospects


Some other curious grades:


Dylan Harper has a negative score with -1.1. 5th worst out of every prospect in this class


Maxime Raynaud also had a negative score with -0.8


Yaxel Lendeborg scored a lot lower than I thought he would with a 0.6

[scottspurs]

Analytics deep dive 12

In basketball, ORAPM (Offensive RAPM) is a advanced stat that quantifies a player's offensive impact, specifically how many more points their team would score per 100 possessions with them on the court compared to an average replacement player. It's a component of RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus) (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=c9e5fc76374a9bb1&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zq6Z62rd_HSJzjfdjTYj4g0k85_4g%3A1744950 060373&q=RAPM+%28Regularized+Adjusted+Plus-Minus%29&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjGtNvD3eCMAxVs8MkDHQ43PDAQxccNegQIBBAB&mstk=AUtExfAyKdwJbMVLdB8L6egq4WqbTOlILbaDrpPBr4m82 Nb9XX7Nl2qYwb8ETAHqKhR00riAJUAPQaUVFHAo8pgu4BULxpq 358KMib_Luj09zD0mQKrortdvHGKHf2Sescp21VQTYdEfMiMDm EQTlzB84c_yc3gfQ0xVi6w77YgrBJ8DvyONsbeYaLfNuzHO97d s7eatuZ6wf_bTDjQal16IF6qQUzQDpIi8N6wVyjanY94g0HMJz Upgpy5J5gJShE6zl1F9HszyLepUAb-7Ui-2obeW7JnaUaSs4sLPb933Wcc7HPL65RlF2zZTnswjQY1G1ke8i 7e6WOy1_soqeuQa4VlN1E9LsAa3VJBRzQklTUhIuEhH6zRWxBb r4zG2iDykbU2R-TjV2isSR7vo0qfuFA&csui=3),a widely used metric that also includes DRAPM (Defensive RAPM) (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=c9e5fc76374a9bb1&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zq6Z62rd_HSJzjfdjTYj4g0k85_4g%3A1744950 060373&q=DRAPM+%28Defensive+RAPM%29&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjGtNvD3eCMAxVs8MkDHQ43PDAQxccNegQIBBAC&mstk=AUtExfAyKdwJbMVLdB8L6egq4WqbTOlILbaDrpPBr4m82 Nb9XX7Nl2qYwb8ETAHqKhR00riAJUAPQaUVFHAo8pgu4BULxpq 358KMib_Luj09zD0mQKrortdvHGKHf2Sescp21VQTYdEfMiMDm EQTlzB84c_yc3gfQ0xVi6w77YgrBJ8DvyONsbeYaLfNuzHO97d s7eatuZ6wf_bTDjQal16IF6qQUzQDpIi8N6wVyjanY94g0HMJz Upgpy5J5gJShE6zl1F9HszyLepUAb-7Ui-2obeW7JnaUaSs4sLPb933Wcc7HPL65RlF2zZTnswjQY1G1ke8i 7e6WOy1_soqeuQa4VlN1E9LsAa3VJBRzQklTUhIuEhH6zRWxBb r4zG2iDykbU2R-TjV2isSR7vo0qfuFA&csui=3) to assess overall player value.


Here's a more detailed explanation:


RAPM:
RAPM is a statistical model that aims to isolate the individual impact of a player on their team's performance, regardless of their teammates and opponents. It does this by using data on every player's presence on the court during every stint (period of time) and then modeling the impact of that presence.





ORAPM and DRAPM:
ORAPM and DRAPM are two parts of RAPM that break down a player's overall impact into offensive and defensive contributions. A positive ORAPM means the player is contributing positively to their team's scoring, while a positive DRAPM means they are contributing positively to their team's defense.





How ORAPM works:
ORAPM is calculated by using a statistical regression model that analyzes a player's performance in various aspects of offense, such as scoring, assisting, and rebounding. The model then uses this data to predict how many more points per 100 possessions a team would score with the player on the court.





Interpreting ORAPM:
A +1 in ORAPM means that the average lineup would score 1 more point per 100 possessions with that player added. Therefore, a player with a high ORAPM is considered to be a strong offensive contributor.





Importance of ORAPM:
ORAPM is a valuable tool for basketball analysis, as it provides a more nuanced understanding of a player's impact than traditional statistics like points per game. It can help teams identify players who are strong offensive contributors, even if they don't have high scoring numbers.





Example:
If a player has an ORAPM of +5.0, it means their team would score 5 more points per 100 possessions with them on the court than with an average replacement player




Top ORAPM players in this draft class




Johni Broome- 6.5
Kon Knueppel- 5.4
Mark Sears- 5.0
Walter Clayton Jr.- 4.9
Kam Jones- 4.8
Tyrese Proctor- 4.7
Sion James- 4.7
Yaxel Lendeborg- 4.5
Jaxson Robinson- 4.4
Darrion Williams- 4.4
Koby Brea- 4.4
Khaman Maluach- 4.3
Will Riley- 4.3
Jeremiah Fears- 4.3
Isaiah Evans- 4.3
Nique Clifford- 4.2
Eric Dixon- 4.1
Jase Richardson- 4.0
Derik Queen- 3.9
Carter Bryant- 3.8



Top 20 prospects in ORAPM


Some other curious grades:


Maxime Raynaud also scored super low in this category with 0.4


Thomas Sorber scored a 0.6

[scottspurs]

Analytics deep dive 13


RAPM, or Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus, is a basketball analytics metric that assesses a player's impact on their team's scoring margin, while accounting for the strength of their teammates and opponents. It is considered an unbiased and impartial measure that captures both offensive and defensive contributions. RAPM uses a technique called regularization (ridge regression) to reduce standard errors in the calculation of Adjusted Plus-Minus (APM (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&channel=32&cs=1&hl=en-us&sca_esv=c9e5fc76374a9bb1&sxsrf=AHTn8zouWmuBiRLHYR-lrOo1X63kwHWpfA%3A1744950203465&q=Adjusted+Plus-Minus+%28APM%29&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiq9pKI3uCMAxX6MNAFHeqVEs0QxccNegQIBRAB&mstk=AUtExfAWtmz9kMKmI1An75mw2PwQgbBA5E1lNZDxcJ60w JQBByyvyS8-m3fjuUmgcXP2kzC9pKxHOwUjsXDAMKWFX_HaeqjMyLhGvbKtCL NbsWMd1O725T0hRTnyMnlWRE2Mx9zrTLJjurQ4uAv8CgtxIL7m R9L1rgGjcQ_tXPyZcdV-Lbwd9v03_JVI2fCapnnHlhntjIbK5Wt9Urp8cllIPFw_ZOvUEU U2v1GS6-up5BjnOEDiEqZvG3oEk7TpZwNsDRWJ1oPPZKywUkSE6GFmy2ZR bCEVF9LIDBUmIttsuXGxhsZbQWMIDMOBE3RxPyitI-11-MOmsWXJOzJKp0Ls04nYEHDXsqOH1Od62DsMN_qJY6pjeWXn9Ys kE3tB8AFdYiGqmFQuhIT7Td_Ooew4Gg&csui=3))


Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) is undoubtedly the most influential one-number metric in basketball analytics today, boosted by its unbiased nature (relatively speaking) which is impartial to playstyle and craftily captures both offense and defense on a fair playing field.


Here are the top RAPM players in this draft class




Kam Jones- 9.8
Walter Clayton Jr- 9.5
Kon Knueppel- 9.2
Sion James- 9.1
Cooper Flagg- 8.6
Derik Queen- 8.0
Tyrese Proctor- 7.9
Johni Broome- 7.7
Nique Clifford- 7.6
Danny Wolf- 7.6
Jase Richardson- 7.4
Carter Bryant- 7.4
Mark Sears- 7.1
Khaman Maluach- 7.0
Thomas Sorber- 6.7
Will Riley- 6.2
Adou Thiero- 6.2
Ace Bailey- 6.0
Labaron Philon- 5.9
Darrion Williams- 5.9



Top 20 in RAPM


Some other curious grades:


Trevon Brazile had the worst score in this draft class at -1.0 overall


Maxime Raynaud is really hated with this analysis with a score of -0.4


Dylan Harper grades out as the 15th worst prospect with a 1.5

[scottspurs]

Analytics deep dive 14


In basketball, Defensive Win Shares (DWS) measures a player's contribution to their team's defense, estimating the number of wins a player contributes through their defensive play. It's essentially a gauge of how many wins are added to a team's record due to a player's defensive efforts. DWS is calculated by considering a player's marginal defense and dividing it by the marginal points per win.


Here's a more detailed breakdown:


Marginal Defense (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=7834d5f5cc440713&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zpoZH2IcvFXwjMjJQdBuGVigGJE3Q%3A1744952 686734&q=Marginal+Defense&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiOtvyn5-CMAxUw48kDHZamNI4QxccNegQIChAB&mstk=AUtExfA5_Egi8Wk6lCjEZgGTvT-ME0WR0Xxr1-teA_7XY32n2JPEpwtUXammK4VGTCzhrB0jSD-MRxZL4IF8EVD2ep51eQ3IacnEwFhSkGZM80ukHVFlkHkmPQ6gZ XwnBv4dBti_eh3WZebZq9lCqArQA6Tf7STcEcvJAM3f2JC5i5f TMVrvVYUz0NRbDAaW_27gpEUu8j51kALqicCyF93FdbBGc-EgYOHi1gwOyueWoGOWV79B5Ux9mPn7rk4Umr1MYSsKG0EsbgiN 8PJ9R8jmqMVq&csui=3):
This refers to how much a player's presence on the court improves their team's defensive rating compared to when they are off the court.




Marginal Points per Win (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=7834d5f5cc440713&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zpoZH2IcvFXwjMjJQdBuGVigGJE3Q%3A1744952 686734&q=Marginal+Points+per+Win&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiOtvyn5-CMAxUw48kDHZamNI4QxccNegQIFBAB&mstk=AUtExfA5_Egi8Wk6lCjEZgGTvT-ME0WR0Xxr1-teA_7XY32n2JPEpwtUXammK4VGTCzhrB0jSD-MRxZL4IF8EVD2ep51eQ3IacnEwFhSkGZM80ukHVFlkHkmPQ6gZ XwnBv4dBti_eh3WZebZq9lCqArQA6Tf7STcEcvJAM3f2JC5i5f TMVrvVYUz0NRbDAaW_27gpEUu8j51kALqicCyF93FdbBGc-EgYOHi1gwOyueWoGOWV79B5Ux9mPn7rk4Umr1MYSsKG0EsbgiN 8PJ9R8jmqMVq&csui=3):
This is the average number of points a team needs to score to win a game, calculated based on the team's performance.




Calculation:
DWS is calculated by dividing the player's marginal defense by the marginal points per win. This essentially translates the player's defensive impact into a win-value.







Key Considerations:


Tempo-Free:
DWS is a tempo-free stat, meaning it doesn't rely on the pace of the game, providing a more consistent measure of defensive impact.




Scalable:
One DWS is equivalent to one win contributed to the team.




Limitations:
While DWS is a useful metric, it's important to remember that it's just one piece of the puzzle when evaluating a player's defensive abilities. It doesn't capture all aspects of defense, such as non-statistically visible defensive actions like positioning and timing.




Luck Factor:
Like many defensive stats, DWS can be influenced by luck, as a player might play great defense but still have shots fall in.







In essence, Defensive Win Shares provide a valuable, tempo-free estimate of a player's defensive impact on their team's win-loss record, offering a more comprehensive perspective than basic defensive statistics alone




Top Defensive Win Share players in this draft class




Cooper Flagg- 3.4
Nique Clifford- 3.0
Derik Queen- 3.0
Rasheer Fleming- 2.8
Johni Broome- 2.7
Danny Wolf- 2.7
Kon Knueppel- 2.5
Ryan Kalkbrenner- 2.5
Sion James- 2.3
Walter Clayton Jr- 2.3
Kobe Johnson- 2.3
Miles Byrd- 2.3
Tyrese Proctor- 2.2
Yaxel Lendeborg- 2.2
Maxime Raynaud- 2.2
Chaz Lanier- 2.2
Khaman Maluach- 2.1
Coleman Hawkins- 2.1
Hunter Sallis- 2.1
Kam Jones- 2.0
Darrion Williams- 1.9
Collin Murray-Boyles- 1.9
Jase Richardson- 1.8
Thomas Sorber- 1.7
Vj Edgecombe- 1.7



Top 25 in Defensive win shares

[scottspurs]

Analytics Deep Dive 15


Offensive Win Shares (OWS) in basketball is a statistic that estimates how much a player's offensive contributions have helped their team win games. It's part of the larger Win Shares metric, which attempts to divide the credit for team success among individual players. OWS specifically focuses on a player's impact on the offensive side of the court, considering factors like scoring, passing, usage rate, and efficiency.


Here's a more detailed breakdown:


Purpose:
OWS provides a measure of a player's offensive value, quantifying how their contributions have led to additional wins for their team.





Calculation:
The calculation of OWS is complex and involves several steps, including:

Estimating the number of points a player produces.

Calculating the number of offensive possessions they use.

Determining the marginal offense they provide, which is the difference between the points produced and what would be expected based on league average and the number of possessions.

Calculating marginal points per win based on team pace and league pace.

Finally, dividing the marginal offense by the marginal points per win to arrive at the Offensive Win Shares.







Factors Considered:
OWS takes into account various aspects of a player's offensive game, including:

Scoring efficiency (points per possession).

The number of possessions the player uses.

The player's ability to create opportunities for themselves and others.

The overall pace of the game and the league.







Interpretation:
A higher OWS value indicates a player who has a greater impact on their team's offensive production and, consequently, their ability to win games.








In essence, OWS is a valuable tool for assessing a player's offensive contribution to team success, going beyond traditional statistics to provide a more nuanced understanding of their value


Here are the players with the most offensive win shares in this draft class




Cooper Flagg- 5.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner- 4.6
Yaxel Lendeborg- 4.6
Eric Dixon- 4.5
Kon Knueppel- 4.4
Walter Clayton Jr.- 4.3
Johni Broome- 4.1
Nique Clifford- 3.9
Kam Jones- 3.8
Asa Newell- 3.7
Mark Sears- 3.6
Khaman Maluach- 3.3
Alex Karaban- 3.2
Chaz Lanier- 3.0
Jase Richardson- 3.0
Collin Murray-Boyles- 3.0
Rasheer Fleming- 3.0
Derik Queen- 2.9
Tre Johnson- 2.9
Dylan Harper- 2.9
VJ Edgecombe- 2.8
Maxime Raynaud- 2.8
Sion James- 2.8
Darrion Williams- 2.8
Tyrese Proctor- 2.8



Top 25 prospects Offensive Win Shares

[scottspurs]

Analytics Deep Dive 16


Win Shares


The final step of the process is to add Offensive Win Shares to Defensive Win Shares.


Here are the top prospects when in comes to win shares in this draft class




Cooper Flagg- 8.4
Ryan Kalkbrenner- 7.1
Nique Clifford- 7.0
Kon Knueppel- 6.9
Yaxel Lendeborg- 6.8
Johni Broome- 6.8
Walter Clayton Jr- 6.6
Derik Queen- 5.9
Eric Dixon- 5.8
Kam Jones- 4.8
Rasheer Fleming- 5.7
Khaman Maluach- 5.4
Asa Newell- 5.2
Chaz Lanier- 5.2
Sion James- 5.1
Tyrese Proctor- 5.0
Maxime Raynaud- 5.0
Collin Murray-Boyles- 4.9
Jase Richardson- 4.8
Alex Karaban- 4.7
Darrion Williams- 4.7
Mark Sears- 4.6
Vj Edgecombe- 4.5
Tre Johnson- 4.2
Danny Wolf- 4.1

[cutewizard]

https://youtu.be/Na-c3Bv4EDc?si=dL_R6J1D0Iaa63Ay

[scottspurs]

Analytics Deep Dive 17


The Value Point System (VPS) is an advanced basketball statistic that provides a comprehensive measure of a player's overall performance, considering both positive and negative contributions. It's calculated by taking a player's points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and other factors, then dividing that by their missed shots, turnovers, and fouls. A higher VPS indicates a more effective player, with 1 being considered average and anything above 2 being considered elite.


Here's a more detailed breakdown:


What it measures:
VPS aims to provide a holistic view of a player's impact, going beyond just counting stats like points.




How it's calculated:
The formula involves a numerator that considers positive contributions (points, rebounds, assists, etc.) and a denominator that accounts for negative contributions (missed shots, turnovers, fouls).




Interpretation:
A VPS of 1 is considered average, while a higher VPS indicates a more efficient and impactful player.




Why it's valuable:
VPS can help identify players who might be undervalued by traditional stats, highlighting their efficiency and overall contribution to the team




Here are the 15 players that score as Elite in VPS in this draft class




Ryan Kalkbrenner- 3.02
Khaman Maluach- 2.54
Yaxel Lendeborg- 2.40
Cedric Coward- 2.38
Collin Murray-Boyles- 2.24
Cooper Flagg- 2.23
Thomas Sorber- 2.17
Johni Broome- 2.15
Derik Queen- 2.09
Adou Thiero- 2.05
Nique Clifford- 2.04
Sion James- 2.03
Rasheer Fleming- 2.02
Asa Newell- 2.00
Jase Richardson- 2.00



A quick note. Every prospect in this draft that I could find graded at a least average so no worries there. These are the only Elite prospects in this analysis though.

[cutewizard]

https://youtu.be/aCG4HGoruls?si=plEBeUKenFn82hqv

[scottspurs]

Analytics deep dive 18


In basketball, "Warp" or "Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sca_esv=2f74be9af6dcdd68&sxsrf=AHTn8zqh74jnT4fFrekTnEqU_yTb_jHrlA%3A1744957 510484&q=Wins+Above+Replacement+Player+%28WARP%29&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiIspqk-eCMAxUn5MkDHdncExAQxccNegQIAhAB&mstk=AUtExfAaXZhxYmXZ9aA5rHG8G_DioxiUnEO3EIB8QPf0I SyLVh60Y8pgJkd0RyittaoXOSNg6K5ZNQcX0b3rB-L_lSSyzO_vFR18s6iLwhFCGcWgo17aAgwjhu5R6MamCEo002hw 6OVQpe-Ndhh4RwaIE5cQdEosA28G2Nu_-6KWyqoD5PGI9haFfqaQd4YGUhFKwnHNvmDsm2YrEn8BEdpQmPb trcka2K1j227p9PQzRqX36yB-FbC7ebIf5d72il7B-CJLpjWsA1RPrddX3ofr43x95w5qzPRIwsbEeHCbk7IhTeEdRYp zxFeylTmYBwRgfAcpDqy4GRrVsw2mDzz2sU9Q2R4jZ-V081YlpQiCSTX86zxM2JsieeE7pVPA23zAIE7zb5ms19XrJjkX vrNq3A&csui=3)" is a metric used to evaluate a player's performance relative to a replacement-level player. It compares a team with a player and four average players to a team with four average players and a replacement-level player. The WARP system helps determine how many wins a player adds to a team compared to a player who can simply replace a spot on the roster.


Here's a more detailed explanation:


Concept:
The WARP system evaluates a player by comparing the performance of a team with that player and four average players against a team with four average players and a replacement-level player.





Calculation:
The method draws heavily on the work of Dean Oliver and aims to quantify the player's contribution in terms of extra wins they provide to the team.





Importance:
WARP is a valuable tool for analyzing player performance, draft prospects, and understanding the impact of players on their team.








In essence, WARP helps to measure how many wins a player contributes above the level of a replacement-level player, providing a more nuanced understanding of player value than simple box score stats alone


Top Warp Scores in this Draft Class




Yaxel Lendeborg- 12.1
Cooper Flagg- 11.9
Johni Broome- 11.7
Nique Clifford- 11.2
Ryan Kalkbrenner- 10.9
Maxime Raynaud- 9.4
Rasheer Fleming- 9.2
Collin Murray-Boyles- 8.7
Kam Jones- 8.3
Eric Dixon- 8.2
Walter Clayton Jr- 8.1
Derik Queen- 8.1
Asa Newell- 7.9
Kon Knueppel- 7.8
VJ Edgecombe- 7.1
Danny Wolf- 6.9
Khaman Maluach- 6.7
Miles Byrd- 6.6
Dylan Harper- 6.4
Xavian Lee- 6.4
Darrion Williams- 6.1
Thomas Sorber- 6.0
Alex Karaban- 5.8
Adou Thiero- 5.5
Chaz Lanier- 5.3





Top 25 prospects in WARP

[scottspurs]

Analytics Deep Dive 19


Ball Control and Usage Analysis for this Draft Class


I’m not going to go to deep into this one but I wanted to show who some of the better players are from this draft class at passing, controlling pace, ball control, taking care of the ball and usage.


1st I want to look at AST%


In basketball, AST% (Assist Percentage) is a statistic that estimates the percentage of a team's field goals a player assisted while they were on the floor. It essentially measures how often a player provides an assist during their time on the court.


How it's calculated:
While the exact formula can vary slightly depending on the source, the general idea is:




Divide a player's assists by the number of their teammates' field goals while they were on the floor .
This result is then multiplied by 100 to express it as a percentage.



What it tells you:


AST% helps assess a player's passing ability and how well they distribute the ball to their teammates.
A higher AST% generally indicates that a player is more involved in assisting on field goals when they are on the court.
It's important to note that AST% alone doesn't tell the whole story. A player with a high AST% might also have a high usage rate (the percentage of possessions they use), which means they are more likely to have the ball in their hands and thus, more opportunities to get assists.
To account for usage rate, the "assist-to-usage ratio (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=2f74be9af6dcdd68&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zqEQKdgcEnM4AgxZYkg72VwqWjn6w%3A1744958 904052&q=assist-to-usage+ratio&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiRmuq8_uCMAxV_4skDHSUKCYgQxccNegQIIxAB&mstk=AUtExfDvErWW87fYEvub7QC9KXgCeumq6XMtcB_js90AF a-LXfijhbEzG_avp1NB6PMrvmUQUFuyf12O09zJpplF02pBYB6P5 DBXQlJrBETF_zDTxik3wlV063ZAVZ8Z9FX3_6sokhnKrI8RAEW cmDxZmAwU9JoJOP8HSZH3GCVOTDsxRBH27iXf3thJXWC0l3Ow9 Ml_0tKQD_XRqE7im1nQkyV5CnitS6ARM_yuz9KXdgz4CsVr1a9 ofVplGC7ThaKlGPpuwP3iHCAZ54twEb84suVontm0WsR_SlThF rVvWpWocepN7xxWmhth8FUCEwE28TCRZHaoJJUmRudcOHFy7qa m7Tl3RsLW3THm2ELxF88yr60rC02onvue_aPl2-49eun5xAgx1Gm4hdJn6jOMKA&csui=3)" (Ast:Usg) is sometimes used, calculated by dividing AST% by the player's usage rate



Top 10 AST% players from this draft class




Kam Jones- 38.1
Xavian Lee- 37.3
Egor Denim- 35.1
Boogie Fland- 28.6
Jeremiah Fears- 28.6
Dylan Harper- 26.9
Nique Clifford- 26.8
Cooper Flagg- 26.5
Mark Sears- 26.4
Kasparas Jakucionis- 26.0





Next I want to look at AST Ratio


Assist ratio in basketball is a stat that shows how often a player or team helps another player score by passing the ball. It’s calculated by dividing the number of assists by the total number of possessions, then multiplying by 100. This number helps coaches and fans see how well a team shares the ball and works together to make good shots. A high assist ratio means the team is passing and creating opportunities, while a low ratio shows more individual play.
The idea of tracking assists has been around for a long time, but the assist ratiostat is a more modern way of measuring it. Early basketball stats mostly focused on points, but as the game evolved, analysts started looking for better ways to measure teamwork and ball movement. The assist stat became a key way to see how well a player could set up their teammates for success.
John Hollinger, a well-known basketball analyst, helped popularize the term “assist ratio” in the 2000s. He created it as part of his advanced basketball stats to better evaluate a player’s overall impact. Since then, assist ratio has been used by coaches, teams, and fans to measure how well players create scoring chances for others.
Formula – How to calculate Assist Ratio
Assist Ratio = (AST ÷ (FGA + (0.44 x FTA) + AST + TO)) x 100%
Where:


“AST” are assists.
“FGA” are field goal attempts.
“FTA” are free throw attempts.
“TO” are turnovers.



Top 10 AST Ratio players in this Draft Class




Egor Denim- 35.1
Sion James- 27.2
Kobe Johnson- 26.1
Boogie Fland- 25.8
Labaron Philon- 25.1
Xavian Lee- 23.7
Coleman Hawkins- 23.5
Kam Jones- 23.5
Kasparas Jakucionis- 22.5
Mark Sears- 21.4





Next I want to look at TOV%


In basketball, TOV% (Turnover Percentage) is a statistic that measures how often a team or player loses possession of the ball due to a turnover. It's calculated by dividing the number of turnovers by the sum of field goal attempts, free throw attempts multiplied by 0.44, and the number of turnovers.


Here's a more detailed breakdown:


What it measures:
TOV% represents the percentage of possessions that end in a turnover, providing an indication of a player or team's ball-handling and decision-making efficiency.





Formula:
TOV% = (Turnovers) / (Field Goal Attempts + 0.44 * Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers).





Importance:
A lower TOV% is generally desirable, as it suggests better ball control and fewer wasted possessions.





Usage:
TOV% can be used to evaluate the performance of individual players or entire teams, helping to identify players or strategies that are prone to turnovers.


Top Tov% players from this draft class




Koby Brea- 4.9
Chaz Lanier- 6.5
Jaxson Robinson- 7.4
Isaiah Evans- 7.5
Jase Richardson- 8.0
Asa Newell- 8.3
Johni Broome- 8.6
Tyrese Proctor- 9.1
Tre Johnson- 9.3
Will Riley- 9.3



Next I want to look at AST/TOV


This is the amount of Assists per turnover


Top 10 AST/TOV players from this draft class




Boogie Fland- 3.72
Kam Jones- 3.17
Koby Brea- 2.82
Xavian Lee- 2.52
Sion James- 2.45
Jase Richardson- 2.27
Labaron Philon- 2.19
Alex Karaban- 2.14
Tyrese Proctor- 2.13
Kon Knueppel- 2.02





The last stat I want to look at is USG%


In basketball, USG%, or Usage Percentage, estimates the percentage of a team's possessions a player uses while on the floor. It's a key advanced stat that helps analyze a player's role in the offense, the balance (or lack thereof) of a team's offense, and can be used in defensive strategy.


Here's a more detailed explanation:


What it measures: USG% indicates how often a player is involved in their team's offensive plays. It's calculated by considering a player's field goals attempted, free throws attempted, turnovers, and then relating that to the team's total possessions when the player is on the court.
Formula: The formula for calculating USG% is:




Code


USG% = 100 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Team Minutes Played / 5) / (Minutes Played * (Team FGA + 0.44 * Team FTA + Team TOV))


Where:


FGA = Field Goals Attempted by the player
FTA = Free Throws Attempted by the player
TOV = Turnovers by the player
Team Minutes Played = The total minutes played by the team
Minutes Played = The player's total minutes played
Team FGA = Total Field Goals Attempted by the team
Team FTA = Total Free Throws Attempted by the team
Team TOV = Total Turnovers by the team.

Interpretation: A player with a high USG% (e.g., 30% or higher) is likely a primary offensive option, meaning they take a large share of their team's shots and plays. A low USG% (e.g., under 20%) might indicate the player is a more supporting role, with a focus on other aspects of the game.

Team context: A team with a well-balanced offense might have USG%s closer to each other, while a team with a star player might have a few players with much higher USG%s than others
Defensive implications: USG% can help identify a team's key offensive players, which can inform defensive strategies



Top 10 USG% players in this draft




Eric Dixon- 34.7
Maxime Raynaud- 31.5
Jeremiah Fears- 31.4
Cooper Flagg- 30.8
Johni Broome- 30.3
Tre Johnson- 29.3
Kam Jones- 29.0
Dylan Harper- 28.9
Chaz Lanier- 28.9
Xaivian Lee- 28.5

[scottspurs]

Analytics Deep Dive 20


In basketball, FTA refers to Free Throws Attempted (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=0e7d64b0605ffa6f&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zryn_XuCsfU-F7ugay-PlMTsC-pjw%3A1744961215998&q=Free+Throws+Attempted&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC_pmLh-GMAxUn5MkDHdncExAQxccNegQIAhAB&mstk=AUtExfCVjEA4jJY_EGNokbjUOIlRebJJKpPjVUP6UIEJD lQ9-L66jSacS3yS2OfjghWRtI_PuC9oy2T_s_-OQW3yfVG4cOfT5MOoF89ypK75qK75_uuOqhHk6q5T_I2C6PvWK 3m1ypNiJY_qsMk9i9TxjVIYIK_XYNSo7owFRoy4G9_RG3wu4Mx nQpMw2vmx3aJ3fca967DdZk_n_630drBYdWOCrI9wMfdjOAK_G NDjRUQm5ubVfiYbl0dTNXDT3h0vYVk8iQI6RjObzRlLe_NRzV6 x&csui=3), which is the total number of free throws a player or team has taken during a game. FTA Rate, or Free Throw Rate (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=0e7d64b0605ffa6f&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zryn_XuCsfU-F7ugay-PlMTsC-pjw%3A1744961215998&q=Free+Throw+Rate&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC_pmLh-GMAxUn5MkDHdncExAQxccNegQIBRAB&mstk=AUtExfCVjEA4jJY_EGNokbjUOIlRebJJKpPjVUP6UIEJD lQ9-L66jSacS3yS2OfjghWRtI_PuC9oy2T_s_-OQW3yfVG4cOfT5MOoF89ypK75qK75_uuOqhHk6q5T_I2C6PvWK 3m1ypNiJY_qsMk9i9TxjVIYIK_XYNSo7owFRoy4G9_RG3wu4Mx nQpMw2vmx3aJ3fca967DdZk_n_630drBYdWOCrI9wMfdjOAK_G NDjRUQm5ubVfiYbl0dTNXDT3h0vYVk8iQI6RjObzRlLe_NRzV6 x&csui=3), is a stat that compares a team's free throw attempts to their field goal attempts. The formula for Free Throw Rate is FTA / FGA (Field Goals Attempted). It essentially shows how often a team is at the free throw line relative to their overall shooting attempts.


Here's a more detailed breakdown:


FGA (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=0e7d64b0605ffa6f&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zryn_XuCsfU-F7ugay-PlMTsC-pjw%3A1744961215998&q=FGA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC_pmLh-GMAxUn5MkDHdncExAQxccNegQIDhAB&mstk=AUtExfCVjEA4jJY_EGNokbjUOIlRebJJKpPjVUP6UIEJD lQ9-L66jSacS3yS2OfjghWRtI_PuC9oy2T_s_-OQW3yfVG4cOfT5MOoF89ypK75qK75_uuOqhHk6q5T_I2C6PvWK 3m1ypNiJY_qsMk9i9TxjVIYIK_XYNSo7owFRoy4G9_RG3wu4Mx nQpMw2vmx3aJ3fca967DdZk_n_630drBYdWOCrI9wMfdjOAK_G NDjRUQm5ubVfiYbl0dTNXDT3h0vYVk8iQI6RjObzRlLe_NRzV6 x&csui=3) (Field Goals Attempted):
This is the total number of field goal attempts a player or team makes during a game.





FTA / FGA:
This ratio, the Free Throw Rate, provides a percentage of how often a team is at the free throw line compared to the total number of field goal attempts.





Why it's important:
A higher FTA Rate can indicate a team's ability to draw fouls, which can lead to more scoring opportunities at the free throw line. It can also reflect a team's shooting style, as a team that favors drives to the basket may have a higher FTA Rate




Top FTA Rate Players in this draft class




Adou Thiero- 69.2
Collin Murray-Boyles- 55.6
Derik Queen- 54.6
Jeremiah Fears- 51.8
Cedric Coward- 50.8
Kasparas Jakucionis- 49.6
Mark Sears- 47.8
Sion James- 46.1
Yaxel Lendeborg- 44.9
Cooper Flagg- 42.0
Thomas Sorber- 42.0
Dylan Harper- 41.9
Jase Richardson- 41.8
Liam Mcneely- 41.0
Khaman Maluach- 40.3



These are the top 15 players at getting to the line in this draft class

This is the last analysis I’ll post for now. Let me know if y’all like looking through these and I’ll keep posting them. A lot more data out there and I enjoy looking at it all.

[Vienna]

I think we are all sleeping on Noa Essengue. (I did as well)

it's likely because the international class isn't that intriguing this year and so the focus is on the college players.

but I assume teams and scouts still do their homework in Europe and so I will try to point at a few things they currently register:

(note: the stats on tankathon just show his numbers in the Eurocup competition from September last year to January)

Noa has been playing quite well lately in the German league. over the last ten games he averaged 12.4 PPG on very good shooting splits and on increased volume. (57%FG, 38% 3P on 11-29, 70%FT) plus 5.1 RPG in 24 MPG.

so, to put things into perspective: the youngest player in the draft seems to develop nicely, especially in the departments of concerns. his team (currently 2nd in the league) will make the PO, so his season will likely go on till end of May.

btw. Noa meassured great for a combo forward in the Baskeball Without Borders combine. (6'9" w/o shoes, 6'11" wingspan, 9'3" standing reach. 35.5" vertical).

so, I assume he is much higher on the draft boards of the teams, than on the mocks.

yes, he ist still raw and still very thin, but team will consider that he is a year younger than many of the freshmen are and project his development.

so, is he a candidate for pick 8? maybe.
for pick 15? you bet.

[rankingtear]

Noa has a big ass head he should fill out more.

[mystargtr34]

9’3” standing teach is huge that’s bigger than a lot of 7 footers.

[exstatic]

I think we are all sleeping on Noa Essengue. (I did as well)

it's likely because the international class isn't that intriguing this year and so the focus is on the college players.

but I assume teams and scouts still do their homework in Europe and so I will try to point at a few things they currently register:

(note: the stats on tankathon just show his numbers in the Eurocup competition from September last year to January)

Noa has been playing quite well lately in the German league. over the last ten games he averaged 12.4 PPG on very good shooting splits and on increased volume. (57%FG, 38% 3P on 11-29, 70%FT) plus 5.1 RPG in 24 MPG.

so, to put things into perspective: the youngest player in the draft seems to develop nicely, especially in the departments of concerns. his team (currently 2nd in the league) will make the PO, so his season will likely go on till end of May.

btw. Noa meassured great for a combo forward in the Baskeball Without Borders combine. (6'9" w/o shoes, 6'11" wingspan, 9'3" standing reach. 35.5" vertical).

so, I assume he is much higher on the draft boards of the teams, than on the mocks.

yes, he ist still raw and still very thin, but team will consider that he is a year younger than many of the freshmen are and project his development.

so, is he a candidate for pick 8? maybe.
for pick 15? you bet.

Light rebounding, poor 3 point shooting. Most here are not interested in another shooting project.

[Vienna]

Light rebounding, poor 3 point shooting. Most here are not interested in another shooting project.

ah yes. sorry that I didn't ask for your permission to post some points about a player. didn't know the rules.

[benefactor]

That's probably enough copy/paste from Google AI for one thread. Thanks.

[CGD]

Everybody misses, sometimes. All you can do is a background check, and if people hide shit from you, there isn’t a lot you can do.

I do wonder what Primo would have amounted to if he kept it in his pants. We forget now, but he was showing promising signs on offense, was a solid defender, and was being lauded for his cool/collected confidence. I’m not saying he would have being anything close to Castle, but I also remember thinking that I saw the logic of taking the big swing. And the org itself was marketing him as the next big thing too.

[rascal]

Analytics Deep Dive 20


In basketball, FTA refers to Free Throws Attempted (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=0e7d64b0605ffa6f&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zryn_XuCsfU-F7ugay-PlMTsC-pjw%3A1744961215998&q=Free+Throws+Attempted&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC_pmLh-GMAxUn5MkDHdncExAQxccNegQIAhAB&mstk=AUtExfCVjEA4jJY_EGNokbjUOIlRebJJKpPjVUP6UIEJD lQ9-L66jSacS3yS2OfjghWRtI_PuC9oy2T_s_-OQW3yfVG4cOfT5MOoF89ypK75qK75_uuOqhHk6q5T_I2C6PvWK 3m1ypNiJY_qsMk9i9TxjVIYIK_XYNSo7owFRoy4G9_RG3wu4Mx nQpMw2vmx3aJ3fca967DdZk_n_630drBYdWOCrI9wMfdjOAK_G NDjRUQm5ubVfiYbl0dTNXDT3h0vYVk8iQI6RjObzRlLe_NRzV6 x&csui=3), which is the total number of free throws a player or team has taken during a game. FTA Rate, or Free Throw Rate (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=0e7d64b0605ffa6f&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zryn_XuCsfU-F7ugay-PlMTsC-pjw%3A1744961215998&q=Free+Throw+Rate&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC_pmLh-GMAxUn5MkDHdncExAQxccNegQIBRAB&mstk=AUtExfCVjEA4jJY_EGNokbjUOIlRebJJKpPjVUP6UIEJD lQ9-L66jSacS3yS2OfjghWRtI_PuC9oy2T_s_-OQW3yfVG4cOfT5MOoF89ypK75qK75_uuOqhHk6q5T_I2C6PvWK 3m1ypNiJY_qsMk9i9TxjVIYIK_XYNSo7owFRoy4G9_RG3wu4Mx nQpMw2vmx3aJ3fca967DdZk_n_630drBYdWOCrI9wMfdjOAK_G NDjRUQm5ubVfiYbl0dTNXDT3h0vYVk8iQI6RjObzRlLe_NRzV6 x&csui=3), is a stat that compares a team's free throw attempts to their field goal attempts. The formula for Free Throw Rate is FTA / FGA (Field Goals Attempted). It essentially shows how often a team is at the free throw line relative to their overall shooting attempts.


Here's a more detailed breakdown:


FGA (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=0e7d64b0605ffa6f&hl=en-us&channel=32&cs=1&sxsrf=AHTn8zryn_XuCsfU-F7ugay-PlMTsC-pjw%3A1744961215998&q=FGA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC_pmLh-GMAxUn5MkDHdncExAQxccNegQIDhAB&mstk=AUtExfCVjEA4jJY_EGNokbjUOIlRebJJKpPjVUP6UIEJD lQ9-L66jSacS3yS2OfjghWRtI_PuC9oy2T_s_-OQW3yfVG4cOfT5MOoF89ypK75qK75_uuOqhHk6q5T_I2C6PvWK 3m1ypNiJY_qsMk9i9TxjVIYIK_XYNSo7owFRoy4G9_RG3wu4Mx nQpMw2vmx3aJ3fca967DdZk_n_630drBYdWOCrI9wMfdjOAK_G NDjRUQm5ubVfiYbl0dTNXDT3h0vYVk8iQI6RjObzRlLe_NRzV6 x&csui=3) (Field Goals Attempted):
This is the total number of field goal attempts a player or team makes during a game.





FTA / FGA:
This ratio, the Free Throw Rate, provides a percentage of how often a team is at the free throw line compared to the total number of field goal attempts.





Why it's important:
A higher FTA Rate can indicate a team's ability to draw fouls, which can lead to more scoring opportunities at the free throw line. It can also reflect a team's shooting style, as a team that favors drives to the basket may have a higher FTA Rate




Top FTA Rate Players in this draft class




Adou Thiero- 69.2
Collin Murray-Boyles- 55.6
Derik Queen- 54.6
Jeremiah Fears- 51.8
Cedric Coward- 50.8
Kasparas Jakucionis- 49.6
Mark Sears- 47.8
Sion James- 46.1
Yaxel Lendeborg- 44.9
Cooper Flagg- 42.0
Thomas Sorber- 42.0
Dylan Harper- 41.9
Jase Richardson- 41.8
Liam Mcneely- 41.0
Khaman Maluach- 40.3



These are the top 15 players at getting to the line in this draft class

This is the last analysis I’ll post for now. Let me know if y’all like looking through these and I’ll keep posting them. A lot more data out there and I enjoy looking at it all.

What would interest me is how the analytics looked for last year's class and compare it with how the players did in their rookie years.

[Dejounte]

Had to make modifications after watching more tape… Jase is ridiculously talented

Assumption: Flagg and Harper are both gone.


First choice with our pick: Kon
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Sorber
If Sorber’s gone, then Jase Richardson
if Jase’s gone, then Egor Demin
if Egor is gone, then CMB
… I call this the “High IQ” group and the scenario I feel is most likely to happen


Second choice with our pick: VJ Edgecombe
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Sorber
if Sorber’s gone, then CMB
if CMB’s gone, then Fleming
… I call this group, “Clamps”


Third choice with our pick: Jase Richardson
Then, first choice with the Atl pick: Sorber
If Sorber’s gone, then Egor Demin,
If Egor’s gone, then any of Fleming, Beringer, Carter Bryant
… I call this group “Spurs Way” because I could def see them doing something like this


Fourth choice with our pick: Sorber
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Fleming
if Fleming’s gone, then CMB
if CMB’s gone, then Noa Essengue
if Noa’s gone, then Yaxel Lendeborg
… I call this group, “Physicality”


Fifth choice with our pick: Derik Queen
Then, my first choice with the Atl pick: Jase Richardson
if Jase’s gone, then Egor Demin
if Egor’s gone, then Ben Saraf
if Ben’s gone, then Danny Wolf
… I call this group the “Showtime Spurs”. I view this as the most unlikely scenario.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Primo was BPA??? Come on man. That was a big swing, and a big miss. I understand the reason (it took me months to finally reconcile with myself), but nah, Primo was NOT BPA. Missing out on obvious BPA's Sengun, Duren, even Jalen Johnson (questionable character* but obviously very talented). Spurs concept of BPA is suspect.

Ex is right though. BPA in the context of the NBA draft clearly includes a level of projection, as in who's the player that we expect would develop the most. Otherwise, in the literal meaning of BPA, they'd be drafting upper classmen in the lottery instead of freshmen.

Spurs fucked up in their evaluation, sure, but Primo clearly was the so called BPA to them at that point of the draft.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Analytics Deep Dive 11


DRAPM, short for Defensive Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus, is a basketball statistic that measures a player's defensive impact relative to the team's performance on a per-100 possessions basis, after accounting for the quality of their teammates and opponents. It's part of the broader RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus) system, which also includes ORAPM (Offensive RAPM). RAPM is considered a more unbiased and accurate method of evaluating player performance compared to traditional box score statistics


Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Thank you Scottspurs for your data!

Surprising to see Kon and Queen both have such good defense impact. But Fleming is not in the list.

Not sure how accurate this data is. Because most experts say Fleming is better defender than Queen.




1. What is RAPM?


RAPM is an advanced statistic that attempts to isolate a player's impact on a team's scoring margin, controlling for the strength of their teammates and opponents.

It's calculated using play-by-play data from multiple seasons, typically the last three, and uses a linear regression model to estimate a player's contribution.

RAPM is considered a more robust measure of player impact than traditional plus-minus because it accounts for the quality of the players on the court at any given time.




2. How is DRAPM calculated?


DRAPM is a component of RAPM, specifically measuring a player's defensive contribution.
It's calculated using the same principles as RAPM, but focusing on the defensive impact.
The calculation involves analyzing each possession, considering the players on the court, their roles (offensive or defensive), and the resulting score differential.




3. Why is DRAPM important?


DRAPM helps to quantify a player's defensive impact beyond what's visible in traditional box scores.
It provides a more objective assessment of a player's defensive capabilities, especially in the context of their specific team and matchups.
It can be used to identify defensive strengths and weaknesses, as well as to compare players on a more equitable basis.




4. How to interpret DRAPM?


A higher DRAPM value generally indicates a greater defensive impact.

DRAPM is typically expressed in points per 100 possessions, allowing for easier comparison between players.

By comparing a player's DRAPM to the league average or to other players, you can gain insight into their defensive effectiveness.




In essence, DRAPM is a powerful tool for basketball analysts and fans who want to go beyond traditional box score statistics to understand a player's true impact on the defensive end of the court


Here are the top DRAPM players in this draft class (excluding international players)




Thomas Sorber- 6.1
Kam Jones- 5.0
Cooper Flagg- 5.0
Sion James- 4.4
Walter Clayton Jr.- 4.3
Derik Queen- 4.1
Danny Wolf- 4.0
Kon Knueppel- 3.9
Carter Bryant- 3.6
Jase Richardson- 3.4
Nique Clifford- 3.4
Liam Mcneely- 3.2
Tyrese Proctor- 3.2
Adou Thiero- 3.2
Chaz Lanier- 3.1
Kobe Johnson- 3.1
Collin Murray-Boyles- 3.1
Boogie Fland- 2.8
Khaman Maluach- 2.7
Miles Byrd 2.5



Top 20 DRAPM prospects


Some other curious grades:


Dylan Harper has a negative score with -1.1. 5th worst out of every prospect in this class


Maxime Raynaud also had a negative score with -0.8


Yaxel Lendeborg scored a lot lower than I thought he would with a 0.6

[exstatic]

ah yes. sorry that I didn't ask for your permission to post some points about a player. didn't know the rules.

It’s a discussion forum. We discuss.

[scottspurs]

What would interest me is how the analytics looked for last year's class and compare it with how the players did in their rookie years.

I can do this but I’ll keep it to top 10 and Stephon Castle

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Based on Scottspurs data, Carter Bryant is valuable.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I can do this but I’ll keep it to top 10 and Stephon Castle

Thank you Scottspurs for your effort!

I'm not surprised teams do this kind data for the past several years and then compare to their actual performance in the NBA.

[RC_Drunkford]

Carter Bryant looks more NBA ready than Fleming and also fits the 3-and-D wing type we are looking for. He reminds me of Risacher

[Mr. Body]

I think we are all sleeping on Noa Essengue. (I did as well)

it's likely because the international class isn't that intriguing this year and so the focus is on the college players.

but I assume teams and scouts still do their homework in Europe and so I will try to point at a few things they currently register:

(note: the stats on tankathon just show his numbers in the Eurocup competition from September last year to January)

Noa has been playing quite well lately in the German league. over the last ten games he averaged 12.4 PPG on very good shooting splits and on increased volume. (57%FG, 38% 3P on 11-29, 70%FT) plus 5.1 RPG in 24 MPG.

so, to put things into perspective: the youngest player in the draft seems to develop nicely, especially in the departments of concerns. his team (currently 2nd in the league) will make the PO, so his season will likely go on till end of May.

btw. Noa meassured great for a combo forward in the Baskeball Without Borders combine. (6'9" w/o shoes, 6'11" wingspan, 9'3" standing reach. 35.5" vertical).

so, I assume he is much higher on the draft boards of the teams, than on the mocks.

yes, he ist still raw and still very thin, but team will consider that he is a year younger than many of the freshmen are and project his development.

so, is he a candidate for pick 8? maybe.
for pick 15? you bet.

Yeah, he's the sort of turn the Spurs have done historically. I would think he's more likely than a Fleming and may be on the same tier as a Bryant in terms of growth possibilities. I wouldn't be surprised at all with the second pick.

[Mr. Body]

Ex is right though. BPA in the context of the NBA draft clearly includes a level of projection, as in who's the player that we expect would develop the most. Otherwise, in the literal meaning of BPA, they'd be drafting upper classmen in the lottery instead of freshmen.

Spurs fucked up in their evaluation, sure, but Primo clearly was the so called BPA to them at that point of the draft.

Slight point: Sengun was clearly the BPA in the draft, even if teams were passing him. His accomplishments were significant at that point. His playing type seemed to push teams off.

Primo did seem like a good kid, and he impressed with leadership at the draft combine. I can see him being a good person with a compulsion that was anti-social and very disruptive.

As for who was left, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones (iirc) were there, but Murphy had a pretty questionable year at Virginia and Jones wasn't really on anyone's radar. It wasn't a terrible swing at a very young player with size who was taking on increased duties at Alabama later in their year. It just got completely derailed by whatever was going on with him.

[Mr. Body]

I don't get why Carter Bryant didn't get more run with Arizona. Signaling from coaches that he couldn't be trusted to do more than he did, when lots of freshmen were doing much more. I'm not out on him but it's big question marks.

[scottspurs]

How this Class stacks up against past classes


DRAPM- Defensive Metric


2025 2024


Thomas Sorber- 6.1
Jamal Shead- 6.0


Kam Jones- 5.0
Ryan Dunn- 4.2


Cooper Flagg- 5.0
Reed Sheppard- 4.0


Sion James- 4.4
Devin Carter- 4.0


Walter Clayton Jr.- 4.3
Kyshawn George- 3.8


Derik Queen- 4.1
Zach Edey- 3.2


Danny Wolf- 4.0
Dalton Knecht- 3.2


Kon Knueppel- 3.9
Donovan Clingdan- 3.1


Carter Bryant- 3.6
Stephon Castle- 3.1


Jase Richardson- 3.4
Kevin McCullar Jr- 2.9




2023 2022


Julian Phillips- 7.5
Tari Eason- 5.0


Adem Boma- 4.5
Chet Holmgren- 3.9


Brandon Miller- 4.3
Walker Kessler- 3.8


Jaime Jaquez- 3.6
Kennedy Chandler- 3.8


Gradey Dick- 2.9




Anthony Black- 2.7
TyTy Washington- 3.6


Ricky Council IV- 2.6
Paolo Banchero- 3.3


Baylor Scheierman- 2.5
Christian Braun- 3.1


Tristan De Silva- 2.5
Trevor Keels- 2.8


Terrence Shannon Jr- 2.0
Christian Koloko- 2.8

[montgod]

Slight point: Sengun was clearly the BPA in the draft, even if teams were passing him. His accomplishments were significant at that point. His playing type seemed to push teams off.

Primo did seem like a good kid, and he impressed with leadership at the draft combine. I can see him being a good person with a compulsion that was anti-social and very disruptive.

As for who was left, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones (iirc) were there, but Murphy had a pretty questionable year at Virginia and Jones wasn't really on anyone's radar. It wasn't a terrible swing at a very young player with size who was taking on increased duties at Alabama later in their year. It just got completely derailed by whatever was going on with him.

Good analysis. I'd also put Jalen Johnson in there as a possible BPA w/Sengun.

I think how Primo performed in the draft scrimmages is what put him over others in Spurs eyes at the time. Also think the Spurs current team make up made them go for him vs a big like Sengun or a possible issues with Jalen knowing they probably wouldn't be getting true minutes at that time.

[montgod]

Slight point: Sengun was clearly the BPA in the draft, even if teams were passing him. His accomplishments were significant at that point. His playing type seemed to push teams off.

Primo did seem like a good kid, and he impressed with leadership at the draft combine. I can see him being a good person with a compulsion that was anti-social and very disruptive.

As for who was left, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones (iirc) were there, but Murphy had a pretty questionable year at Virginia and Jones wasn't really on anyone's radar. It wasn't a terrible swing at a very young player with size who was taking on increased duties at Alabama later in their year. It just got completely derailed by whatever was going on with him.

Good analysis. I'd also put Jalen Johnson in there as a possible BPA w/Sengun.

I think how Primo performed in the draft scrimmages is what put him over others in Spurs eyes at the time. Also think the Spurs current team make up made them go for him vs a big like Sengun or a possible issues with Jalen knowing they probably wouldn't be getting true minutes at that time.

[Mr. Body]

Good analysis. I'd also put Jalen Johnson in there as a possible BPA w/Sengun.

I think how Primo performed in the draft scrimmages is what put him over others in Spurs eyes at the time. Also think the Spurs current team make up made them go for him vs a big like Sengun or a possible issues with Jalen knowing they probably wouldn't be getting true minutes at that time.

I forgot Jalen Johnson was that year. He quit on Duke and Coach K in the middle of the college basketball season. After Kawhi, I doubt they were ever considering him.

[John B]

I forgot Jalen Johnson was that year. He quit on Duke and Coach K in the middle of the college basketball season. After Kawhi, I doubt they were ever considering him.

The question on BPA vs Fit came up because somebody pointed out that the Spurs always do BPA. I disagree because they were swinging big on Primo to be someone who will be “special” and not the obvious general consensus BPA Şengün who had accomplished much more in Europe and seemed to be the safe pick, or the equivalent of BPA to me. The Spurscwas desperate on getting a replacement Franchise Player so they took a big swing. Regardless of what happened next, that was still a big swing and not conventional. That’s my question on BPA vs Fit.

[scottspurs]

How this Class stacks up against past classes


Win Shares




2025

2024



Cooper Flagg- 8.4

Zach Edey- 10.4



Ryan Kalkbrenner- 7.1

Cam Spencer- 7.9



Nique Clifford- 7.0

Tristen Newton- 7.4



Kon Knueppel- 6.9

KJ Simpson- 7.2



Yaxel Lendeborg- 6.8

Daron Holmes II- 6.9



Johni Broome- 6.8

RJ Davis- 6.7



Walter Clayton Jr- 6.6

Terrence Shannon Jr.- 6.3



Derik Queen- 5.9

Jamal Shead- 6.3



Eric Dixon- 5.8

Devin Carter- 6.0



Kam Jones- 4.8

Stephon Castle- 4.3







2023

2022



Marcus Sasser- 7.2

Keegan Murray- 8.6



Trayce Jackson-Davis- 7.1

Orlando Robinson- 7.1



Jaime Jaquez Jr- 7.1

Chet Holmgren- 6.3



Brandon Miller- 6.9

Mark Williams- 6.3



Daron Holmes II- 6.8

EJ Liddell- 6.3



Adama Sanogo- 6.7

Ochai Agbaji- 6.2



Oscar Tshiebwe- 6.6

Bennedict Mathurin- 6.2



Drew Timme- 6.5

Wendell Moore Jr- 6.2



Jarace Walker- 5.2

Paolo Banchero- 6.1



Gradey Dick- 4.9

Christian Braun- 6.0





I can post more comparisons like this if y’all like. I think the most translatable ones have always been Rebounding. This also doesn’t factor in International prospects, G League Ignite Alums, and the Thompson Twins that played in that Academy.

[exstatic]

I forgot Jalen Johnson was that year. He quit on Duke and Coach K in the middle of the college basketball season. After Kawhi, I doubt they were ever considering him.

He also moved around a lot, going to 4 HSs

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Thank you Scottspurs for your efforts! Please post more.

Thank you!

[Manu&Duncan fan]

The question on BPA vs Fit came up because somebody pointed out that the Spurs always do BPA. I disagree because they were swinging big on Primo to be someone who will be “special” and not the obvious general consensus BPA Şengün who had accomplished much more in Europe and seemed to be the safe pick, or the equivalent of BPA to me. The Spurscwas desperate on getting a replacement Franchise Player so they took a big swing. Regardless of what happened next, that was still a big swing and not conventional. That’s my question on BPA vs Fit.

BPA means BPA for spurs. So, Fit is part of the equation. Character is part of the Fit equation.

We all know Primo is a failure. But at that time, FO must have determined that he was the BPA.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

For this draft, our BPA is different from the past years since we have officially have a big 3.

That's why I would pick the BPAs to compliment them and start competing immediately.

[spurraider21]

I don't get why Carter Bryant didn't get more run with Arizona. Signaling from coaches that he couldn't be trusted to do more than he did, when lots of freshmen were doing much more. I'm not out on him but it's big question marks.
he was the only freshman in their rotation at all

[Mr. Body]

he was the only freshman in their rotation at all

It's very clear I said freshmen throughout the country.

[spurraider21]

Carter Bryant looks more NBA ready than Fleming and also fits the 3-and-D wing type we are looking for. He reminds me of Risacher
i like bryant quite a bit. there is the odd mock every now and again that has him going late lotto, ive seen him go top 10 once in a blue as well.

and his defensive versatility, and his shooting/physicality on offense makes him a very piece to use in a teambuilding perspective. like, as much as we love castle, he is somewhat restrictive on teambuilding. we constantly have to remind ourselves "we cant play player x next to castle" (so far). theres none of that with guys like Bryant, or as you said, Risacher. and they're much more than just shooters like a McNeeley (not that theres no use for that).

bryant does look more pro ready than Fleming. with Fleming you are just getting the additional elements of rebounding and rim protection, the ability to play both forward spots (potentially) and some small 5. they're different prospects, but i like both. i would not be mad with a draft where we took both.

[spurraider21]

It's very clear I said freshmen throughout the country.
i know. i think i was pointing to their staff's general reluctance to play freshman and him sort of forcing their hand. his minutes did increase along the way, and the on-off metrics were favorable to him iirc

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I like both Fleming and Carter too. But if we pick both, then we lose out on Kon which is a big no-no.

So, I hope we get into top 4 and trade down for 2 picks. Say, trade #4 for #7 and #10.

Then we pick Kon at #8; carter at #10 and Fleming #13. This will be my dream picks.

If anyone agree with me, please pray with me for this to happen! :)

No matter what religion you believe, or no religion at all, all prayers work. Just like each bite of food gives us nutrition, overtime it adds up and effects show up.

[montgod]

For this draft, our BPA is different from the past years since we have officially have a big 3.

That's why I would pick the BPAs to compliment them and start competing immediately.

I agree about the big 3 which makes me think Spurs FO could also trade out for a vet if they can't get the player(s) they feel will fit in and produce sooner than later. Most likely applies to the 2nd 1st rd pick vs the 1st one though unless they fall to the 11th pick in lottery and have a favorable trade on the table.

[stnick2261]

I like both Fleming and Carter too. But if we pick both, then we lose out on Kon which is a big no-no.

So, I hope we get into top 4 and trade down for 2 picks. Say, trade #4 for #7 and #10.

Then we pick Kon at #8; carter at #10 and Fleming #13. This will be my dream picks.

If anyone agree with me, please pray with me for this to happen! :)

No matter what religion you believe, or no religion at all, all prayers work. Just like each bite of food gives us nutrition, overtime it adds up and effects show up.

Sadly, we are the only team with 2 possible lottery picks so trading down like that wouldn't be feasible. I wouldn't mind trying to trade any of our non-big3 to add a 3rd draft pick in the 5-14 range though. Or trading our 2nd rounder into the 1st if someone like Wolf or Yaxel Lendeborg is still available.

[Mr. Body]

https://youtu.be/r_pa90QUbJY?si=aeIgV9hYzofrLjrI

Tre Johnson remains extremely intriguing to me, although he probably goes top 5. I'd consider trying to move up to get him.

Question marks are really defensive. Can he be average, with less offensive workload? In a way he's what Dillingham was hoped to be -- only bigger and stronger and not a complete waste on that end, if not the pure pg and scorer.

If you think he can be an average defender, you've got to really think about him, and I'm neck and neck between him and Knueppel at this point.

Pure scorer, but with the ability of playing off-ball to a high degree. His usage was high, so you'd need him to scale back. He wasn't an insane self-creator due to athletic limitations and a failure of Texas to initiate anything for him, but he was still highly effective. As this vid notes, his passing is actually much better than the UT results indicate at first blush.

And his main drawback offensively is a lack of rim pressure, but that's where you want to leave for Wemby, Fox, and Castle. Kick-outs to Tre would be tremendous.

[spurraider21]

id take johnson over kon any day lol. just a different level shooter. kon is very accurate and sound. johnson has shown much more as a movement shooter. can shoot off balance reminiscent of marco in his days for us.

i just never really considered him because he's unlikely to fall to 8 and he's also not a better prospect than the top 4 guys. if kon rises and johnson falls to us i'd be thrilled

[Dejounte]

The Spurs don’t need a “movement shooter” tbh. If our big three are generating good looks, they don’t need the extra movement from shooters. It’s why Champagnie did so much better than Vassell. It took forever for Vassell to realize he’s not the man and he doesn’t need to do anything flashy to get his shot up, and he’s still struggling with that. If Tre needs to learn to “scale back”, then it’s already a failure. This is why when I watch these guys play I imagine as if they’re 10 year vets. I try not to overestimate how much they have to “change” to be the idealized player we have in our heads. Because the truth is they don’t change much.

[John B]

My dream draft after top 2.

#8 Queen - bruiser big to help Wemby with rebounding and checking physical bigs
#15 Fleming - True PF with defensive upside and ability to hit the 3. Insurance for Sochan
#38 Boogie Fland - exciting backup PG, elite handles and multi-dimensional scorer, averages 5 assists

[scott]

Vecenie has generally be low on Tre Johnson, but recently reported that he watched his workout in SoCal and it was one of the best pre-draft workouts he's ever seen.

[Dejounte]

Vecenie has generally be low on Tre Johnson, but recently reported that he watched his workout in SoCal and it was one of the best pre-draft workouts he's ever seen.So you’re saying he’s Primo-ing his draft stock up (or secure his ill-earned draft reputation). No thanks

[spurraider21]

Vecenie has generally be low on Tre Johnson, but recently reported that he watched his workout in SoCal and it was one of the best pre-draft workouts he's ever seen.he looks like an absolutely special shooter with a lot more to his offensive game than that. i never thought he'd be available at 8, and didnt think he was good enough to supplant bailey/vj if we moved up, so he's been off my radar draft wise

[Manu&Duncan fan]

The Spurs don’t need a “movement shooter” tbh. If our big three are generating good looks, they don’t need the extra movement from shooters. It’s why Champagnie did so much better than Vassell. It took forever for Vassell to realize he’s not the man and he doesn’t need to do anything flashy to get his shot up, and he’s still struggling with that. If Tre needs to learn to “scale back”, then it’s already a failure. This is why when I watch these guys play I imagine as if they’re 10 year vets. I try not to overestimate how much they have to “change” to be the idealized player we have in our heads. Because the truth is they don’t change much.

Totally agree with Dejounte! Tre is more value than Kon for most other teams, but not Spurs.

[Mr. Body]

So you’re saying he’s Primo-ing his draft stock up (or secure his ill-earned draft reputation). No thanks

Huh? How does that make any sense?

[Mr. Body]

The Spurs don’t need a “movement shooter” tbh. If our big three are generating good looks, they don’t need the extra movement from shooters. It’s why Champagnie did so much better than Vassell. It took forever for Vassell to realize he’s not the man and he doesn’t need to do anything flashy to get his shot up, and he’s still struggling with that. If Tre needs to learn to “scale back”, then it’s already a failure. This is why when I watch these guys play I imagine as if they’re 10 year vets. I try not to overestimate how much they have to “change” to be the idealized player we have in our heads. Because the truth is they don’t change much.

I mean, he can also be a spot up shooter? And... because Vassell isn't great at certain types of shots then those shots can't be valuable? The reasoning here is baffling.

[Dejounte]

Huh? How does that make any sense?


I mean, he can also be a spot up shooter? And... because Vassell isn't great at certain types of shots then those shots can't be valuable? The reasoning here is baffling.

Tre’s your guy you’ve latched onto for some time now and any energy spent here will be wasted. The tape on Tre is bad, that’s my opinion and while my opinion isn’t unwavering and can change depending on new information… it looks less and less likely because of how poor he is as a prospect, in my eyes. I trust what I formulated because I’ve gotten good at this over the years, though I’ll never be perfect.

[spurraider21]

The Spurs don’t need a “movement shooter” tbh. If our big three are generating good looks, they don’t need the extra movement from shooters. It’s why Champagnie did so much better than Vassell. It took forever for Vassell to realize he’s not the man and he doesn’t need to do anything flashy to get his shot up, and he’s still struggling with that. If Tre needs to learn to “scale back”, then it’s already a failure. This is why when I watch these guys play I imagine as if they’re 10 year vets. I try not to overestimate how much they have to “change” to be the idealized player we have in our heads. Because the truth is they don’t change much.
strong disagree. you arent always generating standstill catch and shoot looks. maybe in the corner, sure. from otherwise you are often sliding and positioning yourself based on where the ballhandler is. being able to have off-ball action will not only free up a shooter but also provides a diversion to the defense giving your stars more leeway to do their thing without the entire defense focused on them.

movement shooting is what can really unlock offenses. its what MPJ provides for Denver. its why Cam Johnson has been coveted. its what made both Klay and Steph special. Korver. etc. no im not saying im expecting Tre to be as good a shooter as those greats, but its a very different element for an offense than standstill shooting. it creates more chaos for defenders which also gives you even easier closeouts to beat.

[scott]

So you’re saying he’s Primo-ing his draft stock up (or secure his ill-earned draft reputation). No thanks

I'm just reporting that someone who isn't high on Tre Johnson reported he had an impressive workout.

Considering Tre has been considered a top-10 pick pretty much all season, I'm not seeing the comparison to Primo.

[Dejounte]

strong disagree. you arent always generating standstill catch and shoot looks. maybe in the corner, sure. from otherwise you are often sliding and positioning yourself based on where the ballhandler is. being able to have off-ball action will not only free up a shooter but also provides a diversion to the defense giving your stars more leeway to do their thing without the entire defense focused on them.

I put “movement shooter” in quotes because of the context you had in your original post where it seemed like you defined it as shooting off balance like Marco. So I was referring to that type of shooter— step back 3’s, the need to dribble before putting up the shot… not the movement without the ball part. In that area, I think Kon is way better. Tre has to ISO a lot for his looks, and hasn’t presented much off ball movement opportunities as proven by his high usage rate.

[Dejounte]

strong disagree. you arent always generating standstill catch and shoot looks. maybe in the corner, sure. from otherwise you are often sliding and positioning yourself based on where the ballhandler is. being able to have off-ball action will not only free up a shooter but also provides a diversion to the defense giving your stars more leeway to do their thing without the entire defense focused on them.

I put “movement shooter” in quotes because of the context you had in your original post where it seemed like you defined it as shooting off balance like Marco. So I was referring to that type of shooter— step back 3’s, the need to dribble before putting up the shot… not the movement without the ball part. In that area, I think Kon is way better. Tre has to ISO a lot for his looks, and hasn’t presented much off ball movement opportunities as proven by his high usage rate.

[Dejounte]

I'm just reporting that someone who isn't high on Tre Johnson reported he had an impressive workout.

Considering Tre has been considered a top-10 pick pretty much all season, I'm not seeing the comparison to Primo.


It’s a point (or joke) that didn’t land. I was trying to make the equivalence from a prospect raising his stock (or maintaining it) from his non-actual game activities, much like Primo did.

WHAT THE FUCK IS UP WITH THIS WEBSITE MAN

[scott]

I've always thought of "movement shooter" as a shooter who moves off the ball. Steph Curry being the best and most famous of the movement shooter archetype

[scott]

By comparison, the Harden archetype (step back threes, dribble threes) being classified in the "primary ball handler" archetype

[spurraider21]

I've always thought of "movement shooter" as a shooter who moves off the ball. Steph Curry being the best and most famous of the movement shooter archetype
yes and it often involves off platform or leaning shots because you are curling off a screen or in a full sprint when catching the ball and you dont have time to stop, dribble, check your feet, and shoot.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, I think being a movement shooter is exceptionally hard. And if a player can do that, it's even harder for them to be guarded.

[RC_Drunkford]

i like bryant quite a bit. there is the odd mock every now and again that has him going late lotto, ive seen him go top 10 once in a blue as well.

and his defensive versatility, and his shooting/physicality on offense makes him a very piece to use in a teambuilding perspective. like, as much as we love castle, he is somewhat restrictive on teambuilding. we constantly have to remind ourselves "we cant play player x next to castle" (so far). theres none of that with guys like Bryant, or as you said, Risacher. and they're much more than just shooters like a McNeeley (not that theres no use for that).

bryant does look more pro ready than Fleming. with Fleming you are just getting the additional elements of rebounding and rim protection, the ability to play both forward spots (potentially) and some small 5. they're different prospects, but i like both. i would not be mad with a draft where we took both.

same here. I view Bryant more as an SF and Fleming as a PF

[spurraider21]

If the kings move up to the top 4 they won’t convey to ATL

[Robz4000]

If the kings move up to the top 4 they won’t convey to ATL

:lol hopefully the Hawks move up to 1, the Kings 12, and the Mavs 14

[Big Empty]

What Center’s are in this draft that can help the Spurs?

[rascal]

strong disagree. you arent always generating standstill catch and shoot looks. maybe in the corner, sure. from otherwise you are often sliding and positioning yourself based on where the ballhandler is. being able to have off-ball action will not only free up a shooter but also provides a diversion to the defense giving your stars more leeway to do their thing without the entire defense focused on them.

movement shooting is what can really unlock offenses. its what MPJ provides for Denver. its why Cam Johnson has been coveted. its what made both Klay and Steph special. Korver. etc. no im not saying im expecting Tre to be as good a shooter as those greats, but its a very different element for an offense than standstill shooting. it creates more chaos for defenders which also gives you even easier closeouts to beat.

You're arguing with a guy who would pick Kon 3rd overall.

[scottspurs]

What Center’s are in this draft that can help the Spurs?

Depends on where you want to pick one.

With their own pick the Spurs could pick Derik Queen, Khaman Maluach or perhaps Thomas Sorber.

With the Hawks pick Sorber or reach for Yaxel Lendeborg, Johni Broome, Danny Wolf. Maybe Joan Beringer.

In the 2nd round plenty of options from Beringer, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Vladislav Goldin, Rocco Zikarsky, Maxime Raynaud, Alex Condon, Hansen Yang. Also Bogoljub Markovic but he needs to put on some serious weight and strength in order to play center in the NBA. Johann Grunloh is an undersized draft and stash.

[Dejounte]

You're arguing with a guy who would pick Kon 3rd overall.

Hey rascal, why don’t you go fuck yourself and stop worrying about what players other people like or don’t like. Maybe contribute something more to the forum than just saying a player isn’t good because they’re white.

[Vienna]

I don't get why Carter Bryant didn't get more run with Arizona. Signaling from coaches that he couldn't be trusted to do more than he did, when lots of freshmen were doing much more. I'm not out on him but it's big question marks.

did they just try to get a second season out of him? Arizona scored big in the recruiting class 2025 with Peat and Burries, maybe they think that 2026 will be their window and a returning Bryant could be a key piece? (If this explanation makes sense at all)

But I think he will get to much interest from some teams. He will kill it in the work outs and on top of that he seems to be a bright and eloquent kid. he will do great in the interviews. I think he will get at least a mid 1st round promise and stay in the draft.

[Degoat]

Right now I like Derik Queen and Collin Murray Boyles, think they provide some physicality that we really need.

[sfernald]

Oh god, this is a great draft. I really don’t think there’s any way for front office to fuck it up.

I really like Bryant and think he’s worth a reach. But he’s the kind of player that will inevitably blow up during workouts and we will hear suddenly that Nets and Toronto will take him if he’s available at 6 or 7.

Looking at our roster, besides a backup center, what we really need is more shooting and more bball IQ. So any players we can get that would fit that would be helpful. For an out of box drafting, I really wouldn’t mind kK & the Wolf. Would be nice to have player with some actual brains instead of the empty chambers of guys like Keldon and Blake.

[John B]

Oh god, this is a great draft. I really don’t think there’s any way for front office to fuck it up.

I really like Bryant and think he’s worth a reach. But he’s the kind of player that will inevitably blow up during workouts and we will hear suddenly that Nets and Toronto will take him if he’s available at 6 or 7.

Looking at our roster, besides a backup center, what we really need is more shooting and more bball IQ. So any players we can get that would fit that would be helpful. For an out of box drafting, I really wouldn’t mind kK & the Wolf. Would be nice to have player with some actual brains instead of the empty chambers of guys like Keldon and Blake.

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/23/2f/62/232f626580b56fc33fd411dae488dcf4.jpg

[CGD]

Oh god, this is a great draft. I really don’t think there’s any way for front office to fuck it up.

I really like Bryant and think he’s worth a reach. But he’s the kind of player that will inevitably blow up during workouts and we will hear suddenly that Nets and Toronto will take him if he’s available at 6 or 7.

Looking at our roster, besides a backup center, what we really need is more shooting and more bball IQ. So any players we can get that would fit that would be helpful. For an out of box drafting, I really wouldn’t mind kK & the Wolf. Would be nice to have player with some actual brains instead of the empty chambers of guys like Keldon and Blake.

On Bryant, you’re right there are always players that seem to come out of nowhere and get levered up to the lottery.

Bilal (WAS) and Williams (OKC) immediately come to mind. Arguable Tijuan last year too.

Will it be Bryant this year? Sorber?

[rankingtear]

Bryant could make bank in combine scrimmage if he shows more on ball juice than his role in college. The international players tend to rise late when the top decision makers make their way to europe and their teams have more incentive to feature the prospects for the buyout money.

[exstatic]

On Bryant, you’re right there are always players that seem to come out of nowhere and get levered up to the lottery.

Bilal (WAS) and Williams (OKC) immediately come to mind. Arguable Tijuan last year too.

Will it be Bryant this year? Sorber?

I think if Bryant measures well,and has good combine numbers, he’ll climb. If you check his game logs on his TaT profile, he performed very well in both his conference and NCAA tournament games. In six total post season games, he shot 10-22 from 3, and had 8 steals and 7 blocks.

[sfernald]

On Bryant, you’re right there are always players that seem to come out of nowhere and get levered up to the lottery.

Bilal (WAS) and Williams (OKC) immediately come to mind. Arguable Tijuan last year too.

Will it be Bryant this year? Sorber?
.
I mean I think so, but I can tell some of you guys have watched these players a lot more than me. There could be others. But damn he passes the eyeball test!

[sfernald]

I think if Bryant measures well,and has good combine numbers, he’ll climb. If you check his game logs on his TaT profile, he performed very well in both his conference and NCAA tournament games. In six total post season games, he shot 10-22 from 3, and had 8 steals and 7 blocks.

His athleticism seems really special. He's the perfect wing size. And he can actually shoot. Should we dare to even dream that our front office would draft such a mythical beast?

[exstatic]

His athleticism seems really special. He's the perfect wing size. And he can actually shoot. Should we dare to even dream that our front office would draft such a mythical beast?

I’m kind of suspicious about his shooting, since his volume is relatively low 2.8/game and his FT% is 69.5, but if it holds up, he could be really good.

[Mr. Body]

On Bryant, you’re right there are always players that seem to come out of nowhere and get levered up to the lottery.

Bilal (WAS) and Williams (OKC) immediately come to mind. Arguable Tijuan last year too.

Will it be Bryant this year? Sorber?

Small point, Jay Williams didn't come out of nowhere. He was pretty widely known as having a great season after transferring. He was considered top 10 material for a while, but dropped due to his age. Coulibaly did come out of nowhere, coattailing a bit off playing with Wembanyama (deservedly so, if maybe going too high), and Salaun kind of got shine off being French after the Wemby boom, so definitely for him. He had no business being in mid-lottery discussion.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Watched Naz Reid yesterday. Keep imaging if we draft a better version, how lethal will Spurs be. Fleming is longer and more athletic than Naz Reid. His 3 point shot has a high chance of translating.

[exstatic]

Watched Naz Reid yesterday. Keep imaging if we draft a better version, how lethal will Spurs be. Fleming is longer and more athletic than Naz Reid. His 3 point shot has a high chance of translating.

Longer is a measurement of wingspan, which we won’t have until the combine.

[Ice009]

Naz Reid was awesome yesterday. Would really like to get him if the price is right and something can be worked out, but if not, someone in the draft that has the potential to be the same/better would be great for this team.

[keithington1]

I do like Danny Wolf. Think he fits well with Sochan and Wemby. He is older and ready to play now. High IQ and mobile. But the defense of this roster is worrisome. I hear the young Noa Essengue is 6’10” with a high motor and all around game. Defense is his calling card. He’s miles better than Salaun who went early lottery. With these 2 the Spurs can become a team that can outrun, outsmart, and outhustle these playoff teams. Oh and the team would no longer be small.

[DAF86]

Carter Bryant looks more NBA ready than Fleming and also fits the 3-and-D wing type we are looking for. He reminds me of Risacher

Bryant is a 3/4, while Fleming is a 4/5. Fleming seems to be a more sure thing shooting wise, but also, he's 2 years older. Gun to the head, I would take Bryant over Fleming, but I would be fine with picking either one, maybe even both.

Essengue is another player on this mold, but with much more question marks regarding his shooting.

[DAF86]

My dream draft after top 2.

#8 Queen - bruiser big to help Wemby with rebounding and checking physical bigs
#15 Fleming - True PF with defensive upside and ability to hit the 3. Insurance for Sochan
#38 Boogie Fland - exciting backup PG, elite handles and multi-dimensional scorer, averages 5 assists

Lost me at "bruiser big" as our #1 pick, tbh.

[DAF86]

Totally agree with Dejounte! Tre is more value than Kon for most other teams, but not Spurs.

What makes Knueppel more valuable for the Spurs than Tre Johnson?