2025 NBA Draft

[onechance87]

I was curious so I took the top 30 of Tankathon's Big Board and sorted them by 3pt%. Left side of the image is their BB order, right side is sorted for 3pt%. (I still like Demin and McNeeley, but falling off from Traore and starting to like Karaban now)

https://i.imgur.com/KQJ4FIn.jpeg

where is jeremiah fears at.....Anyways would probably take fland and mcneely

[stnick2261]

where is jeremiah fears at.....Anyways would probably take fland and mcneely

Looks like Fears reclassified (like Flagg did) and will still be 18 at the time of the draft so Tankathon doesn't have him in their mock or Big Board yet. ESPN has him in their mock (I believe) but I don't have a subscription so I can't see. He's shooting 30.6% from 3pt so he's be in the 15th spot in my image.

[exstatic]

I was curious so I took the top 30 of Tankathon's Big Board and sorted them by 3pt%. Left side of the image is their BB order, right side is sorted for 3pt%. (I still like Demin and McNeeley, but falling off from Traore and starting to like Karaban now)

https://i.imgur.com/KQJ4FIn.jpeg

I see a few red Flaggs on this list. It’s amazing that more than one HS hype kid has both an awful 3G% and an awful TS%. Flagg, Bailey and Edgecomb all fit that description.

Oh, and don’t fall in love with seniors. I like Karaban, too, with a second rounder.

[LeBowen]

Good work with the list, but it's slim pickings if we're talking 6'7 or taller players who are above at least 30% from 3pt.

Goes down to:
Karaban
Demin
McNeeley
Riley
Knueppel
Bailey
CMS

I excluded point guards because we just can't afford to have rookie/sophmore point guard combo if we're to compete.
Maybe if someone projected in top10 falls to us or they really like someone, but other than that I'd rather avoid guards.

Demin and Bailey won't be avaiable with our picks, meaning it's down to McNeeley, Riley, Knueppel, CMS and Karaban.

[Dejounte]

Good work with the list, but it's slim pickings if we're talking 6'7 or taller players who are above at least 30% from 3pt.

Goes down to:
Karaban
Demin
McNeeley
Riley
Knueppel
Bailey
CMS

I excluded point guards because we just can't afford to have rookie/sophmore point guard combo if we're to compete.
Maybe if someone projected in top10 falls to us or they really like someone, but other than that I'd rather avoid guards.

Demin and Bailey won't be avaiable with our picks, meaning it's down to McNeeley, Riley, Knueppel, CMS and Karaban.


Good thread about Karaban:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/CzUu4OhVTf


No his shooting from all distances actually is rather unique for a player who’s legitimately 6’8 (even someone like Doug McDermott actually measured at 6’6, and he still had a 10-year NBA career despite being a bad defender) and he’s been doing it since he was a freshman. He was ahead of one-and-done lotto picks like Gradey Dick and Anthony Black in box plus-minus.

Also it’s pretty easy to make the case he contributed more to UConn’s winning over the last two seasons than someone like Clingan who played about half as many minutes as him.


So again, production-wise he has looked like a potential lottery pick from his very first season and what has been keeping him in school is people’s ‘eye test’ saying he looks like he should be bad on defense (because he is white and not jacked or jumping out of the gym) even though he has started from day 1 on the 2-time defending champs and is currently averaging 5.5 blocks per game.


It’s going to be like Zach Edey (who I’d assume is the ROY favorite currently) where once a player is staying in school even though they were already productive enough to have been a 1st round pick, what more can you expect than for them than to efficiently dominate the competition - Karaban currently has a 27.2(!) box plus-minus - as the best player for one of the best teams in the country? It’s going to be hilarious if he literally becomes the only player not on a John Wooden UCLA team to win 3 straight national titles and people are still going “but he’s 22.”


The 6’8 NBA guys who can spot up were worse shooters in college and got better in the NBA as they continued to hone their craft, whereas Karaban is starting from a much better point. The guys who shoot like Karaban in college (again this includes that he is 60+ percent on twos for his career so he hurts you when you run him off the line or try to put a smaller player on him as well) tend to be shooting more than just spot-up threes in the NBA.

Also I meant exactly what I said and there are a lot of guys who get billed as 6’8 prior to the NBA but end up being an inch or two shorter. Go through the standings and tell me exactly which teams have 6’8 spot-up shooters, and I assure you half or more of the teams are lacking one.


Starting at the top of the league, the undefeated Cavs have Georges Niang in their rotation. Niang is shorter than Karaban and was not nearly as good a shooter in college, but serves as a great lower-end comparison as he went 50th in his draft and is currently 16th among 2016 draftees basketball-reference’s VORP. Clearly Niang knows how to play enough to not be a massive defensive liability despite his lack of quickness/athleticism, and Karaban through 2 games has blocked half as many shots as Niang’s highest shot-blocking season in college.

If Karaban is the main reason UCONN wins their third straight this year, it would be foolish not to take him in the top 15 of the draft this year.

You don’t bet against winners. Duncan was old when he was drafted at 21. Ginobili was came to the Spurs at 25. Just terrible takes from your usual suspects because of their preconceived bias against age.

[Dejounte]

Derrick White is one of the most coveted players in the league right now and in a re-draft he SHOULD be drafted top 10, but you’ll have guys like ex talk crap about him because of their rigid philosophies on what types of players should be drafted in the first round.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=alex-karaban--derrick-white

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Derrick White is one of the most coveted players in the league right now and in a re-draft he SHOULD be drafted top 10, but you’ll have guys like ex talk crap about him because of their rigid philosophies on what types of players should be drafted in the first round.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=alex-karaban--derrick-white

Back in the day when Derrick was drafted the whole ST was shitting on him (and yes, me included ) because we passed on Jonah Bolden and Jordan Bell who were ST favourites.

We can all have opinions but some perspective would be nice. Us, armchair GMs aren’t the sharpest.

[exstatic]

Good thread about Karaban:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/CzUu4OhVTf





If Karaban is the main reason UCONN wins their third straight this year, it would be foolish not to take him in the top 15 of the draft this year.

You don’t bet against winners. Duncan was old when he was drafted at 21. Ginobili was came to the Spurs at 25. Just terrible takes from your usual suspects because of their preconceived bias against age.

1997 and 1999 drafts, respectively. You didn’t have any examples from the 1970s? Because they’d be equally relevant to those. It’s not that day, any longer. My bias is founded in examples. Duarte, Podz, Jacquez were older draftees who showed out as rookies, then shit the bed. It’s also shared by most GMs. I’m not the outlier here, you are, but go on, tilt at that windmill if you must, Quixote.

[scott]

Of the North Carolina kids, I like Drake Powell over Ian Jackson based on watching them live.

Powell has more length (although he is only listed as 6'5" - will have to wait on official measurements), fits more in that 3&D mold, really nice athleticism. Jackson, on the other hand, looks more like the Lonnie Walker archetype: hyper athletic, slightly smaller, looks to get up shots.

Based on the teams needs, I actually wouldn't hate the idea of taking them both. Powell fits our longterm need for wings, whereas Jackson could be a backup SG (which we also very much need) candidate. With that said, I don't expect either of these guys to make a huge impact their rookie seasons unless they end up on bad teams and get lots of playing time. BKN and UTA both have incoming picks in that range, so that could be a possibility for those guys to have unexpected big rookie seasons.

[Dejounte]

1997 and 1999 drafts, respectively. You didn’t have any examples from the 1970s? Because they’d be equally relevant to those. It’s not that day, any longer. My bias is founded in examples. Duarte, Podz, Jacquez were older draftees who showed out as rookies, then shit the bed. It’s also shared by most GMs. I’m not the outlier here, you are, but go on, tilt at that windmill if you must, Quixote.

How is it “shared by most GM’s” when those three players you listed were drafted in the top 20, which contradicts your inherent point of GM’s believing older rookies will shit the bed after their first few seasons. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have drafted them that early, dumbass. And, you can say there are busts in any sub group of players so it’s a ridiculous point to begin with. I listed SPURS players because we’re on a Spurs forum. There have been examples of older players who have succeeded in the NBA, such as White, Jalen Williams, Trey Murphy III, Herbert Jones, Tyrese Halliburton, Tre Jones, DeAndre Hunter, Cameron fucking Johnson… I could go on. This isn’t a hard concept.

[SouthernFried]

I like it.

[exstatic]

How is it “shared by most GM’s” when those three players you listed were drafted in the top 20, which contradicts your inherent point of GM’s believing older rookies will shit the bed after their first few seasons. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have drafted them that early, dumbass. And, you can say there are busts in any sub group of players so it’s a ridiculous point to begin with. I listed SPURS players because we’re on a Spurs forum. There have been examples of older players who have succeeded in the NBA, such as White, Jalen Williams, Trey Murphy III, Herbert Jones, Tyrese Halliburton, Tre Jones, DeAndre Hunter, Cameron fucking Johnson… I could go on. This isn’t a hard concept.

They were ultimately failures. GMs that stick their necks out like that get burned. Not a great support pillar for your argument.

I’m also referrring to 22 and 23 year olds. There is some margin for 21 year olds, but the other two drastically under perform their draft slots. I also don’t have a problem using second rounders for said players. You structure the contract as a 2+1, and if they shitnthe bed in year two, as is very common, you cut them loose. As a FRP, you have to pick up the year three option after year one, and you have no protection against the year two swoon. I’d be delighted with Karaban at #31.

Read this, and go all the way to the end. It shows the performance to draft slots by age year.

https://www.theringer.com/2024/11/26/nba/dalton-knecht-los-angeles-lakers-prospect-age-rookie

[scott]

You structure the contract as a 2+1, and if they shitnthe bed in year two, as is very common, you cut them loose. As a FRP, you have to pick up the year three option after year one, and you have no protection against the year two swoon.

tbh, this isn't really relevant to the Spurs, who will happily pick up a 4th year option after a 2nd year shitting of the bed :lol

[CGD]

If the CHI pick hits, do we really think the Spurs will carry another 3 rookies? I have my doubts, even if they move on from Tre, Blake, Maliki, Mamu, and Sidy. Has to be a consolation trade coming in that scenario.

[Mal]

If the CHI pick hits, do we really think the Spurs will carry another 3 rookies? I have my doubts, even if they move on from Tre, Blake, Maliki, Mamu, and Sidy. Has to be a consolation trade coming in that scenario.

Draft Saraf and leave him in Euroleague for 2 years

[scott]

If the CHI pick hits, do we really think the Spurs will carry another 3 rookies? I have my doubts, even if they move on from Tre, Blake, Maliki, Mamu, and Sidy. Has to be a consolation trade coming in that scenario.

I feel like it's questionable we even carry 2 FRPs, tbh

[CGD]

I feel like it's questionable we even carry 2 FRPs, tbh

The asset preservation strategy will be interesting to watch this draft. The risk of having multiple picks in a single draft is that they independently get devalued (like what really is the difference between picks 12 and 15?), and or a trade partner will inflate their pick return demand.

I would not be mad if they do the 20131 again this draft, or, preferably turn 12 and 15 into something like 8.

[bluebellmaniac]

I feel like it's questionable we even carry 2 FRPs, tbh

We have a ton of needs. We gain a ton of talent this draft. This is, after all, the legendary draft. The once in 50 years draft.

We need shooters, a PF, backups at about every position. We are in need of a quality Center when Wemby is playing sharp-shooter from 3-pt land.

[LeBowen]

We have a ton of needs. We gain a ton of talent this draft. This is, after all, the legendary draft. The once in 50 years draft.

https://media.tenor.com/-O6MNdjt_dAAAAAM/look-larry-david.gif


We need shooters, a PF, backups at about every position. We are in need of a quality Center when Wemby is playing sharp-shooter from 3-pt land.

You're right about our needs, but from the next season onwards we're expected to actually compete. Get a top6 seed and make some noise in the playoffs.
Can't do that without some more proven players. Developing too many players at once is counter-productive.

I personally don't want another point guard or big. Why? Point guards take the longest to develop, having rookie/sophmore point guard combo would most definitely not work.
Whoever gets to be Wemby's backup will be limited to ~15mpg. We need a reliable veteran who won't complain about playtime, will always be ready and will consistently deliver what's needed in his role.

If we can get two legit 6'7-6'10 wings who can shoot, then I'm all for it. If not, just consolidate the picks and get the best wing available or trade away one of those picks for a proven player.

[exstatic]

https://media.tenor.com/-O6MNdjt_dAAAAAM/look-larry-david.gif



You're right about our needs, but from the next season onwards we're expected to actually compete. Get a top6 seed and make some noise in the playoffs.
Can't do that without some more proven players. Developing too many players at once is counter-productive.

I personally don't want another point guard or big. Why? Point guards take the longest to develop, having rookie/sophmore point guard combo would most definitely not work.
Whoever gets to be Wemby's backup will be limited to ~15mpg. We need a reliable veteran who won't complain about playtime, will always be ready and will consistently deliver what's needed in his role.

If we can get two legit 6'7-6'10 wings who can shoot, then I'm all for it. If not, just consolidate the picks and get the best wing available or trade away one of those picks for a proven player.

If somehow we win the lottery and I’m the GM, I take Harper 100 times out of 100 and never look back. He’s like a much more finished version of Castle, complete with 3 pointer. IDGAF that he’s a PG. He can just flat out play basketball.

[LeBowen]

If somehow we win the lottery and I’m the GM, I take Harper 100 times out of 100 and never look back. He’s like a much more finished version of Castle, complete with 3 pointer. IDGAF that he’s a PG. He can just flat out play basketball.

Obviously. My bad for not making it clear that my post doesn't apply to Spurs lucking into a top5 pick, then you take the BPA.
We'll likely be in let's say #12 to #20 range and at that point we should go for a better fit instead of taking some more swings in the dark.
Wasting another FRP or two on random players like Primo or Samanic would be terrible considering there are so few good wings available and we need not one, but multiple legit wings.

[Mr. Body]

If somehow we win the lottery and I’m the GM, I take Harper 100 times out of 100 and never look back. He’s like a much more finished version of Castle, complete with 3 pointer. IDGAF that he’s a PG. He can just flat out play basketball.

I wouldn't say Harper is a PG at all, and his skill set is completely different than Castle.

[BackHome]

If the CHI pick hits, do we really think the Spurs will carry another 3 rookies? I have my doubts, even if they move on from Tre, Blake, Maliki, Mamu, and Sidy. Has to be a consolation trade coming in that scenario.

In a perfect world that I think would be our best outcome but will see what our picks are so just looking at our roster. One things is at PG we got 3 Guards but two of them are coming off contracts Tre and Paul so I am pretty sure 1 will be let go or traded. I am cool signing Paul to another year if we are able to draft Fears, Saraf, or Fland, who can do G League there first year.

Next season we got Barnes and Collins signed for just that season at a total of 37 million so they might be used in a trade for a seasoned PG or very good starter? I think we can all agree that Collins won’t be long here so definitely need to get a backup big I am like Wolf or one of the Ivisic Twins.

Next season you also have decisions on do we want to deal Keldon and maybe throw in Blake and Wesley? Or do we just kick the can down the road for another year?

Also, we got 3 G League contracts we can just not sign - Minix, Ingram, and Duke

So I don’t have a problem drafting new guys even 3 or four or trading for some hopeful upgrades as long as I can bring in better talent

[ginobilized]

In a perfect world that I think would be our best outcome but will see what our picks are so just looking at our roster. One things is at PG we got 3 Guards but two of them are coming off contracts Tre and Paul so I am pretty sure 1 will be let go or traded. I am cool signing Paul to another year if we are able to draft Fears, Saraf, or Fland, who can do G League there first year.

Next season we got Barnes and Collins signed for just that season at a total of 37 million so they might be used in a trade for a seasoned PG or very good starter? I think we can all agree that Collins won’t be long here so definitely need to get a backup big I am like Wolf or one of the Ivisic Twins.

Next season you also have decisions on do we want to deal Keldon and maybe throw in Blake and Wesley? Or do we just kick the can down the road for another year?

Also, we got 3 G League contracts we can just not sign - Minix, Ingram, and Duke

So I don’t have a problem drafting new guys even 3 or four or trading for some hopeful upgrades as long as I can bring in better talent

Maybe we keep Blake and jettison Wesley while letting go of Harrison and keeping Barnes? Just spit-balling here.

[baseline bum]

We have a ton of needs. We gain a ton of talent this draft. This is, after all, the legendary draft. The once in 50 years draft.


Really? A lot of the analysis I hear is it's very top heavy, so a really strong top 5, but after that nothing too out of the normal.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

After catching up a little with the draft I've changed my opinion on quite a few guys. My impression is this draft isn't nearly as good or as deep as originally thought, which is an opinion a lot of pundits have already voiced, but I was surprised at how difficult it was to fill up a top 15, or a top 20. The 11-20 range where the Spurs are likely to operate in seems specifically barren, so when it comes to the Spurs needs I'd say I'm not taking anyone who can't shoot if their ceiling is a role player, the only players who can't shoot that I'd draft would be ones with star potential.

So, anyway, my top 4 is Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Edgecombe. After that in some order: Tre Johnson, Jaku, Demin, Fears, Newell. I consider this group to be outside of the Spurs range as things stand.

Then, for the possibly available players I like McNeeley, Knueppel, Ian Jackson and Will Riley. I'm also irrationally high on Drake Powell, Joson Sanon and Rasheer Fleming. Beyond that it's pretty bleak. Still early season obviously, some players will definitely rise up.

[mo7888]

After catching up a little with the draft I've changed my opinion on quite a few guys. My impression is this draft isn't nearly as good or as deep as originally thought, which is an opinion a lot of pundits have already voiced, but I was surprised at how difficult it was to fill up a top 15, or a top 20. The 11-20 range where the Spurs are likely to operate in seems specifically barren, so when it comes to the Spurs needs I'd say I'm not taking anyone who can't shoot if their ceiling is a role player, the only players who can't shoot that I'd draft would be ones with star potential.

So, anyway, my top 4 is Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Edgecombe. After that in some order: Tre Johnson, Jaku, Demin, Fears, Newell. I consider this group to be outside of the Spurs range as things stand.

Then, for the possibly available players I like McNeeley, Knueppel, Ian Jackson and Will Riley. I'm also irrationally high on Drake Powell, Joson Sanon and Rasheer Fleming. Beyond that it's pretty bleak. Still early season obviously, some players will definitely rise up.

I'm getting to a similar place. I'd have Demin over Edgecombe and Jakucionis in that second group. I think it's fairly flat from 9-20, so if we get a pick in that range I don't think it matters as much where it falls.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I'm getting to a similar place. I'd have Demin over Edgecombe and Jakucionis in that second group. I think it's fairly flat from 9-20, so if we get a pick in that range I don't think it matters as much where it falls.

I'm low on Demin, I don't buy that shot at all. Don't see him being able to create separation against good athletes. Playmaking is great and he's tall but other than that I think I like Jaku's game more. If he hits, he's absolutely ideal for 2020s ball though.

Edgecombe is polarizing and obviously his shot isn't there yet, but he's grown on me after watching a couple of games. His athleticism really pops, he's super active on defense, he can pass better than advertised too. I'd back him to keep improving. He violates the prototypical dribble-pass-shoot wing standard, but he'll be picked very high no doubt.

[spurraider21]

i dont understand the knueppel stuff at all

[exstatic]

i dont understand the knueppel stuff at all

I don’t understand Bailey still being in the top 5. His stats, both counting and analytical are not good,and he apparently has issues finishing against college defenders,even though he’s 6’10”.

[ffadicted]

What are people thinking the Spurs do if we end up with no lottery picks coming up? Hornets is definitely not converting, bulls is looking unlikely, and it's very possible both spurs and atlanta make the playoffs. Do we then shift from building in the draft to packaging one or both those picks (or future picks) and a couple of pieces for a high level player next season, or do we stay the course and hope there's good talent in the 12-16 draft range? Not familiar enough with the class to know, but curious.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

i dont understand the knueppel stuff at all

Why? He's not going to be a star, but he has a quick picture perfect shot, plays defense, can put the ball on the floor and can even playmake on a very decent level. I know he's had games where he hasn't been shooting well, especially in some marquee match-ups, but this is exactly why he might be available in the 10-15 range. I wouldn't be worried about his shot at all. I can see him as a Max Struss type of player, which would be great value at 10 or so.

[stnick2261]

I don’t understand Bailey still being in the top 5. His stats, both counting and analytical are not good,and he apparently has issues finishing against college defenders,even though he’s 6’10”.

I would be very disappointed if we got a top 4 pick and took Bailey. He seems like he'd be sooo frustrating to have on the team. He's has great size and athleticism, but he stands tall when dribbling, he has trouble driving into traffic, and makes bad decisions. He can shoot mid-range and can dunk in the open court.

[scott]

I don’t understand Bailey still being in the top 5. His stats, both counting and analytical are not good,and he apparently has issues finishing against college defenders,even though he’s 6’10”.

At some point, elite size and athleticism still matters to teams. How do his stats compare to the Thompsons? Amen is certainly working out.


What are people thinking the Spurs do if we end up with no lottery picks coming up? Hornets is definitely not converting, bulls is looking unlikely, and it's very possible both spurs and atlanta make the playoffs. Do we then shift from building in the draft to packaging one or both those picks (or future picks) and a couple of pieces for a high level player next season, or do we stay the course and hope there's good talent in the 12-16 draft range? Not familiar enough with the class to know, but curious.

If we're going to trade those picks for veterans, I hope we do it now while there is still some variance in the picks (which adds value). Once they are locked into the late teens, they'll be worth significantly less.

[spurraider21]

Why? He's not going to be a star, but he has a quick picture perfect shot, plays defense, can put the ball on the floor and can even playmake on a very decent level. I know he's had games where he hasn't been shooting well, especially in some marquee match-ups, but this is exactly why he might be available in the 10-15 range. I wouldn't be worried about his shot at all. I can see him as a Max Struss type of player, which would be great value at 10 or so.
he seems more stubby than long, not particularly quick. i dont see how he's going to defend at all at the nba level. he's an alright shooter but not really a specialist. he does have some degree of creation/passing chops, but he doesnt seem like a lotto pick type to me.

[LeBowen]

If we're going to trade those picks for veterans, I hope we do it now while there is still some variance in the picks (which adds value). Once they are locked into the late teens, they'll be worth significantly less.

We're going to trade those picks for 20132 ones because RC recently had another Euro trip and likes what he saw.
Not to mention that Malaki and Blake have another year on their deals, we don't want to take minutes away from them. :pop:

[Bruno]

While I definitively agree that using a lottery pick on Wembanayama's backup would be a waste, because this player would limited to 10/15mpg, it would be fine if Spurs got a pick in the 18 to 20 range.

[jesterbobman]

I think the Spurs FO (like most FO) only see a subset of the guys as draft able at a given slot / area. If they have 3 top 10 picks, and can get their #5, #6 and #9 (e.g, Kasparas, Fears, CMB at 10, 11 and 18 I'm sure they'd keep the picks).

If their top is gone, and they think there isn't much value in adding 3 rookies this year, I could see them moving a pick for something like the Minny package from some other team that they want to bet against in the 2030 ish window.
Lakers, are you all in for LeBron's last year? 2030 and 2032 for #11 and a second round pick?
Warriors, are you going to honour Steph with help?

In other news, Tankathon has just updated their mock, now has Fears at 14 (on the board now at 16).

Means there's an option for the lazy PG comps in this draft...
https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jeremiah-fears--boogie-fland--dylan-harper--kasparas-jakucionis

I think one of those 4 would be a good start, Harper / Kasparas probably require us to move up in the lottery.

[LeBowen]

While I definitively agree that using a lottery pick on Wembanayama's backup would be a waste, because this player would limited to 10/15mpg, it would be fine if Spurs got a pick in the 18 to 20 range.

From my perspective it would be a waste because you can never know how a rookie will perform.
There are always solid backup bigs around the league who would deliver exactly what's asked of them in those 15mpg and wouldn't ask for much.

[exstatic]

At some point, elite size and athleticism still matters to teams. How do his stats compare to the Thompsons? Amen is certainly working out.


My counter argument is Scoot and Bailey. Both had issues finishing at lower levels, so maybe there’s only so far that size and athleticism can take you. Scoot still finishes like crap (53% 0-3ft :vomit:), and while he’s a level below the John Wall and Westbrook tier, he’s got pretty damn good pop.

[Mr. Body]

De'Aaron Fox compared to Jeremiah Fears.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jeremiah-fears--de-aaron-fox

I'd far rather ensure we get a Fears for a single pick than burn multiple picks and players for De'Aaron Fox. But I think Fears moves up into top 8 territory at least. He's flat out a better prospect and Fox went fifth in a kind of iffy draft.

[scott]

My counter argument is Scoot and Bailey. Both had issues finishing at lower levels, so maybe there’s only so far that size and athleticism can take you. Scoot still finishes like crap (53% 0-3ft :vomit:), and while he’s a level below the John Wall and Westbrook tier, he’s got pretty damn good pop.

Not sure I've ever heard Scoot referred to as having elite size.

[exstatic]

De'Aaron Fox compared to Jeremiah Fears.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jeremiah-fears--de-aaron-fox

I'd far rather ensure we get a Fears for a single pick than burn multiple picks and players for De'Aaron Fox. But I think Fears moves up into top 8 territory at least. He's flat out a better prospect and Fox went fifth in a kind of iffy draft.

I like Fears, but one thing you have to keep in mind is that UK usually had 4-5 absolute blue chippers, and they had to share the ball and split the shot equitably. That’ll hit your numbers. Devin Booker scored 10ppg and didn’t start at UK.

[exstatic]

Not sure I've ever heard Scoot referred to as having elite size.

Don’t be obtuse. You mentioned both size and athleticism. One of your examples was Amen. He’s a guard.

[Mr. Body]

I like Fears, but one thing you have to keep in mind is that UK usually had 4-5 absolute blue chippers, and they had to share the ball and split the shot equitably. That’ll hit your numbers. Devin Booker scored 10ppg and didn’t start at UK.

Their usage is about the same, with Fears just a tick higher. You could just as easily say Fears doesn't have other blue chippers to draw defensive attention while Fox had Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo. Reality is that Fox just wasn't as good.

[SpursBills]

I think the Spurs FO (like most FO) only see a subset of the guys as draft able at a given slot / area. If they have 3 top 10 picks, and can get their #5, #6 and #9 (e.g, Kasparas, Fears, CMB at 10, 11 and 18 I'm sure they'd keep the picks).

If their top is gone, and they think there isn't much value in adding 3 rookies this year, I could see them moving a pick for something like the Minny package from some other team that they want to bet against in the 2030 ish window.
Lakers, are you all in for LeBron's last year? 2030 and 2032 for #11 and a second round pick?
Warriors, are you going to honour Steph with help?

In other news, Tankathon has just updated their mock, now has Fears at 14 (on the board now at 16).

Means there's an option for the lazy PG comps in this draft...
https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jeremiah-fears--boogie-fland--dylan-harper--kasparas-jakucionis

I think one of those 4 would be a good start, Harper / Kasparas probably require us to move up in the lottery.

With the data that we have halfway through the season, my ranking of those 4 is 1) Harper (top 2) 2) Fears (top 3-5) 3) KJ (Top 10) 4) Fland (First rounder)

Harper is not going to be in our range regardless

I've said enough about Fears already, but I will say that I'm very curious about his combine measurements. His 3 looks so smooth and I think he ends up becoming a very good shooter. I don't see him as a point guard, but I like his pairing with Castle as a stylistic contrast and he provides a lot of stuff that Castle doesn't e.g. rim pressure. Develop him as a third guard for starters and see if he's good enough to replace Vassell. I don't fully trust his steal rate and it's probably coming down in conference play. Some statistical similarities to Collin Sexton's freshman year but he seems bigger, is younger, and plays a lot more physically.

KJ is good, but I actually think he's getting somewhat overrated at this point. His FTR is similar to Fears, but he gets a lot of fouls "unethically" with random stuff like jumping forward on his 3 pointers. We take FTR as a statistical measure for rim pressure/athleticism/physicality, but his attempts at the rim are lower and when combined with how he gets his fouls he seems to play a lot less physically. I do think he'll be great as a secondary initiator and he's a great passer, but I don't think he has the advantage creation potential of Harper or KJ.

Fland I think is actually the best actual point guard of the 4 - makes good decisions, good shooter, good passer, good all around guard, super young. I just don't trust small guards that shoot such a low percentage around the rim. His rim numbers, dunks, and rebounding paint the picture of a small guard who will probably struggle at the next level athletically. I'd probably pass as of now pending conference play.

[scott]

Don’t be obtuse. You mentioned both size and athleticism. One of your examples was Amen. He’s a guard.

Yes... I said size AND athleticism, not size OR athleticism. Sorry that words have meaning.

[jesterbobman]

As a very lazy watcher, I'm waiting to see Fears effectiveness off ball (I'll wait until one of the end one season full on scouting videos). He looks so good with the ball in his hands doing a lot, but effectiveness in off ball roles (guard screening, relocation shooting, etc) will be a big component of value on any team where a player isn't a pure #1 player, especially with Vic as the focus point of the Spurs offense.

I still think he's a top 10 prospect, and would be an awesome fit for the Spurs (rim pressure PG paired with shooting big is a fun 2 man combo, as in NY with KAT and Brunson), but I could see a fall to around the Spurs first pick if other teams opt for bigger wings / hypothetical upside (I can see cases for Flagg, Harper (the top 2), Tre, VJ, Kasparas, Demin, Maluach, Queen, someone will take Bailey), and at that point, shit happens. Could go 3, could go 13.

[Russ]

For a guy who can't shoot, Asa Newell (Georgia PF) remains intriguing.

He's 6'10-11", physical, athletic, has a nonstop motor, a good BBIQ, moves with a purpose, sets picks, runs the floor and has a nose for the hoop down low.

With Wemby moving around and often outside shooting, Newell could be a relentless stabilizing presence inside.

If he could shoot (he's only .658 from the line) he'd be top 3-5 in this draft.

If he falls to where the Spurs likely will be, he's worth a good look.

[Dejounte]

Watched some Fears. Not super convinced he’ll be able to do that at the next level. Kinda reminds me of Johnny Davis and Malachi Flynn.

One guy that really pops for me right now is Adou Thiero. Like I’ve said over and over, the Spurs are likely to draft for versatility. Adou looks like he fits the mold the Spurs are going for perfectly. He reminds me of GG Jackson.

If I were to rank guys on who are the most likely to be drafted, it would go like this:

1. Adou
2. Karaban
3. Noa
4. Riley

[mo7888]

Watched some Fears. Not super convinced he’ll be able to do that at the next level. Kinda reminds me of Johnny Davis and Malachi Flynn.

One guy that really pops for me right now is Adou Thiero. Like I’ve said over and over, the Spurs are likely to draft for versatility. Adou looks like he fits the mold the Spurs are going for perfectly.

If I were to rank guys on who are the most likely to be drafted, it would go like this:

1. Adou
2. Karaban
3. Noa
4. Riley

Where are you assuming that ours and the Atlanta pick are?

[Dejounte]

Where are you assuming that ours and the Atlanta pick are?

Atl might have theirs 12 to 16, i would say. Ours would probably be 15-20

[onechance87]

vassell is so trash,We need a shooting guard now.

[mo7888]

Atl might have theirs 12 to 16, i would say. Ours would probably be 15-20

I think that's where it shakes out as well. I see you list (and I'll add Drake Powell to it) is probably who we're looking at for our pick(and I'd have Karaban at the top of it). I'm not sure we'd take any of them at #12 though.

[LeBowen]

Atl might have theirs 12 to 16, i would say. Ours would probably be 15-20

I'm pretty sure Eastern teams that get eliminated from the play-in will have a worse record than Western losers, meaning Hawks pick should be either #11 or #12...unless they get hot and make the playoffs.

[scott]

I like Drake Powell in that range, but I think he’ll take 3 years to be a regular rotation player. That’s fine if we clear out the rest of the riff raff at the end of the roster.

[jesterbobman]

He's got limitations and I think he's very much a 3rd - 4th guard, but I think Jase Richardson would be fun as an efficient play finisher / ball mover.

He has an absolute monster stat profile, I feel like he could fill in the role that the Spurs want as a secondary guard who makes decisions and can play off ball, and can shoot next to Castle as a primary on ball player. Just adding a smart dude, and if he's there that late I think it's good value (though, I admit, undersized young guard with elite stats profile but limited traits is the kind of guy I fall in love with every draft).

If the Chicago pick doesn't convey, something like the Charlotte picks to Brooklyn for one of their very late 2025 picks (they have their own, picks from the Bucks Knicks and Rockets and might not want 4 rookies this year) would be fine.

[SpursBills]

If we're looking at under the radar wings, one guy to watch may be Darrion Williams out of Texas Tech (50th on Wasserman mock draft, not on Tankathon)

He's a junior and will be 22 on draft night, but he has an interesting profile. 6'6", seems like he has a long wingspan. Only shooting 33% from 3 this year, but hit 46% last year on 100 attempts and has shot ~80% or more from the line all 3 years of college. Decent stocks, decent rebounder. The most interesting thing about him this year is that he's being used almost as point guard and he's responded with >30 AST% on almost 30% usage and a 2.5:1 A:TO. Every team could use some wing depth and he seems like a high feel guy worth taking a swing on in the late first or early second who doesn't need a ton of development.

[Kurik]

They are currently slated for end of the first round in mocks but I think Kam Jones and Rasheer Fleming will probably be the two older prospects at the top of my list for a guard and a big who may be able to play right away and provide some shooting.

[Thomas82]

For a guy who can't shoot, Asa Newell (Georgia PF) remains intriguing.

He's 6'10-11", physical, athletic, has a nonstop motor, a good BBIQ, moves with a purpose, sets picks, runs the floor and has a nose for the hoop down low.

With Wemby moving around and often outside shooting, Newell could be a relentless stabilizing presence inside.

If he could shoot (he's only .658 from the line) he'd be top 3-5 in this draft.

If he falls to where the Spurs likely will be, he's worth a good look.

This is actually who I want us to draft. Along with all the things you mentioned, he's also left-handed.

[Dejounte]

If we're looking at under the radar wings, one guy to watch may be Darrion Williams out of Texas Tech (50th on Wasserman mock draft, not on Tankathon)

He's a junior and will be 22 on draft night, but he has an interesting profile. 6'6", seems like he has a long wingspan. Only shooting 33% from 3 this year, but hit 46% last year on 100 attempts and has shot ~80% or more from the line all 3 years of college. Decent stocks, decent rebounder. The most interesting thing about him this year is that he's being used almost as point guard and he's responded with >30 AST% on almost 30% usage and a 2.5:1 A:TO. Every team could use some wing depth and he seems like a high feel guy worth taking a swing on in the late first or early second who doesn't need a ton of development.

Could lightning strike twice? The Spurs could draft another guy from San Diego named Miles Byrd. I’m not sure why he’s not ranked higher, but he’s posting similar numbers to Kawhi Leonard there. Pretty good defensive instincts. Yeah, doesn’t have the same physical tools but it’s not bad.

[jesterbobman]

Could lightning strike twice? The Spurs could draft another guy from San Diego named Miles Byrd. I’m not sure why he’s not ranked higher, but he’s posting similar numbers to Kawhi Leonard there. Pretty good defensive instincts. Yeah, doesn’t have the same physical tools but it’s not bad.

Beat me to it.

I looked at Tankathon, saw him at 50ish with outrageous stats profile (Awesome shooting numbers, good block / steal rates), watched some film and got Derrick White vibes (long, good secondary rim protector for a guard, kind of a tertiary ball handler and a non elite athlete but great use of his length). I've seen him mocked near 25 / 30 in other places, which is more reasonable.

[Dejounte]

Beat me to it.

I looked at Tankathon, saw him at 50ish with outrageous stats profile (Awesome shooting numbers, good block / steal rates), watched some film and got Derrick White vibes (long, good secondary rim protector for a guard, kind of a tertiary ball handler and a non elite athlete but great use of his length). I've seen him mocked near 25 / 30 in other places, which is more reasonable.

It’s kind of night and day between him and Adou Thiero who I had pumped up in my previous post. I like Adou’s offense as it’s rare for a guy his size to have ball handling ability without looking stiff, but the more I look at his defense, the more unimpressed I am. It’s borderline Keldon level. Miles, on the other hand, seems to know where to be at all times and is actually crafty with his passing. There seems to be other guys of similar archetype like Saraf and Hugo and I hope the Spurs can draft one of these three guys.

[spurraider21]

:wow

1876800217049149533

[BackHome]

Thats a bad boy!

[Guru of Nothing]

He's barely a blip (currently ranked 57th on Tankathon), but I think Danny Wolf creeps up into the first round, or very close to it. The biggest red flag is turnovers (I'm just repeating Tankathon), but he's a 7-footer playing point, a lot; I'm sure he's still figuring some things out. I like to think the Spurs could pay this guy top g-league money and see what develops. If positionless basketball is the goal, then here's your guy.

He put up 21/13/7 w/ 2 steals and 6 bocks against USC this past weekend. Imagine upgrading zollins to this guy. He'd be an immediate upgrade.

9N9R3xKCLGs

[BackHome]

I really like the kid the good thing he could play Center and he can play PF so he can give good backup minutes his first and second year at both positions. His stock has dramatically increased so I think he could go from 28 to 44 just all depends how he does in year end tournament. He is a smart player and really plays team basketball I think he and Wemby could work well with each other.

[stnick2261]

:wow

1876800217049149533

I know it'll never get called, but it looked like he got the steal, dribbled once with his right hand, held the ball with both hands and took 2 steps... then started dribbling again with his left.

[spurraider21]

I know it'll never get called, but it looked like he got the steal, dribbled once with his right hand, held the ball with both hands and took 2 steps... then started dribbling again with his left.
What you are considering his first dribble was just him deflecting the ball. He didn’t have possession until he held it the first time

[stnick2261]

What you are considering his first dribble was just him deflecting the ball. He didn’t have possession until he held it the first time

I see that. It just looks like he's holding the ball like it's Rugby, and takes two steps before putting the ball down to dribble. I'm not saying he should be called for anything, but the game has definitely changed and that would have been called in the 80s-90s.

[spurraider21]

I see that. It just looks like he's holding the ball like it's Rugby, and takes two steps before putting the ball down to dribble. I'm not saying he should be called for anything, but the game has definitely changed and that would have been called in the 80s-90s.
ah yeah i can see that. my bigger issue with travel calls in this league are the egregious "gather step" nonsense like the weird shuffling stepback 3's we see.

[exstatic]

ah yeah i can see that. my bigger issue with travel calls in this league are the egregious "gather step" nonsense like the weird shuffling stepback 3's we see.

This is why you don’t need rule changes to reduce the number of threes taken. Just call shit like this!

[John B]

ah yeah i can see that. my bigger issue with travel calls in this league are the egregious "gather step" nonsense like the weird shuffling stepback 3's we see.

At least NBA players look good doing it. You should see people trying them at the park is just comical.

[Seventyniner]

This is why you don’t need rule changes to reduce the number of threes taken. Just call shit like this!

That and crack down on moving screens.

[John B]

That and crack down on moving screens.

Collins would just foul out

[Seventyniner]

Collins would just foul out

Don't threaten me with a good time.

[spurraider21]

This is why you don’t need rule changes to reduce the number of threes taken. Just call shit like this!
moving screens are another one

[scott]

Collins would just foul out

Even more reason for them to call them

[scott]

New Game Theory Podcast Mock Draft is up


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqXxTVooXE4

[scott]

Who's ready to party?

(Teams would never trade with us again if this happened :lol)

https://i.ibb.co/30Y0drj/tankathon.png

[Dejounte]

If the Spurs end up only using one (first round) pick for the night, I’d like them to draft Rasheer Fleming.

if the Spurs only use two first round picks for the night, I’d like them to draft Rasheer Fleming and Ben Saraf.

if the Spurs use two first round picks and one second round pick: Fleming, Saraf, Miles Byrd.

if the Spurs use and keep two first round picks and two second round picks (most unlikely scenario): Fleming, Saraf, Miles Byrd, Thomas Sorber.

They must come away with Fleming from this draft, tbh. Potential to be the best two way player of the class.

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdNg_1d8HZA

[mo7888]

If the Spurs end up only using one (first round) pick for the night, I’d like them to draft Rasheer Fleming.

if the Spurs only use two first round picks for the night, I’d like them to draft Rasheer Fleming and Ben Saraf.

if the Spurs use two first round picks and one second round pick: Fleming, Saraf, Miles Byrd.

if the Spurs use and keep two first round picks and two second round picks (most unlikely scenario): Fleming, Saraf, Miles Byrd, Thomas Sorber.

They must come away with Fleming from this draft, tbh. Potential to be the best two way player of the class.

Admittedly, I'm not putting the time in this year to put my full BB together and I haven't really scouted Fleming, but I see mocks/big boards having him as a second round pick. I also see his outside shooting has only been good for one season in his career. Do we really think he's worth a 1st rd pick? Wouldn't McNeely or even Karaban be a better fit? I do like Saraf and I haven't watched a minute of Miles Byrd.

[mo7888]

Personally, I'm looking for a wing that can knock down 3's and a PG. Guys I'd prefer for my two firsts (maybe 3 if Chicago keeps winning) are Demin, Jackucionis (if either falls), Traore, Fland, McNeely, Karaban (if one of our picks ends up around 18-25), Johnson, and Saraf.

If we don't get a PG with one of our 1st's then I'd be for taking Proctor with an early 2nd.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Admittedly, I'm not putting the time in this year to put my full BB together and I haven't really scouted Fleming, but I see mocks/big boards having him as a second round pick. I also see his outside shooting has only been good for one season in his career. Do we really think he's worth a 1st rd pick? Wouldn't McNeely or even Karaban be a better fit? I do like Saraf and I haven't watched a minute of Miles Byrd.

I think his stock will keep rising and he’ll end up somewhere in the 12-18 range, especially if teams believe in his shot. I definitely do, certainly more than Saraf’s or Demin’s, etc. - a ton of poor shooters in this draft.

Other than the shot, he’s absolutely great and ready to contribute from day 1. If the Spurs trade Sochan he’d be able to fill the role off the bench right away, cheaply.

[baseline bum]

Who's ready to party?

(Teams would never trade with us again if this happened :lol)


Let's fucking go!

https://i.ibb.co/fndwLj3/iwinalotto.png

[Dejounte]

Admittedly, I'm not putting the time in this year to put my full BB together and I haven't really scouted Fleming, but I see mocks/big boards having him as a second round pick. I also see his outside shooting has only been good for one season in his career. Do we really think he's worth a 1st rd pick? Wouldn't McNeely or even Karaban be a better fit? I do like Saraf and I haven't watched a minute of Miles Byrd.


https://youtu.be/gfx0OdP_7Gg?feature=shared
Think Tari Eason but even better.

For a few months now I would get hyped about a prospect but then see their defense and come away disappointed.

Rasheer is one of the few with the full package. Even his demeanor screams Spur. Stone faced and confident.

there are players with more impressive stat lines currently that get attention, but compared to those guys, Rasheer looks like an NBA guy as opposed to just a college guy. The draft order will shuffle a lot between now and then and just like BG said, Rasheer will be a riser (unless he gets injured or something).

Saraf I chose as a second 1st rd guy because he plays a position and style different than Rasheer and plays convincingly good. There maybe others in that range I wouldn’t mind drafting as the number 2 guy along with Rasheer.

[Bruno]

The lottery picks picture is quite clear now.

The 7 worst teams in the league are basically known. Wizards, Raptors, Hornets, Nets, Pelicans, Jazz and Blazers have all at least 10 more loses than wins. None of these teams seems on it way to get really better. These 7 teams should keep the 7 worst records.

After these teams, there a bunch of teams fighting for the play-ins: Sixers, Bulls, Hawks, Pistons, Heat, Suns, Spurs, Warriors, Kings... These teams will get picks between #8 and #18/#20.

Among teams fighting for the play-in, Bulls seems to be the weaker which would mean Spurs won't get the top10 protected Bulls pick this year. After that, it could very well be Spurs or Hawks finishing with the 9th worst record. The 9th worst record has a 20% odd of getting a top4 pick in the lottery.

[Pauleta14]

They selected 2 non shooters for the Spurs... :lmao


https://www.youtube.com/live/eqXxTVooXE4?si=_s9ihrme6yUCQi3L

[mo7888]

https://youtu.be/gfx0OdP_7Gg?feature=shared
Think Tari Eason but even better.

For a few months now I would get hyped about a prospect but then see their defense and come away disappointed.

Rasheer is one of the few with the full package. Even his demeanor screams Spur. Stone faced and confident.

there are players with more impressive stat lines currently that get attention, but compared to those guys, Rasheer looks like an NBA guy as opposed to just a college guy. The draft order will shuffle a lot between now and then and just like BG said, Rasheer will be a riser (unless he gets injured or something).

Saraf I chose as a second 1st rd guy because he plays a position and style different than Rasheer and plays convincingly good. There maybe others in that range I wouldn’t mind drafting as the number 2 guy along with Rasheer.

The video looks pretty good. I'm not sure about his feel or bbiq, but that's really not as important as a 3D role player. I do really like his size though. He looks at least as big as advertised, maybe a touch bigger.

[LeBowen]

They selected 2 non shooters for the Spurs... :lmao


https://www.youtube.com/live/eqXxTVooXE4?si=_s9ihrme6yUCQi3L

Ask yourself...is that lmao worthy or an actual possibility with PATFO?

[scott]

Ask yourself...is that lmao worthy or an actual possibility with PATFO?

They stated at the top of the video that they weren't really considering the teams too much when picking.

[CorrectCrusader]

https://youtu.be/gfx0OdP_7Gg?feature=shared
Think Tari Eason but even better.

For a few months now I would get hyped about a prospect but then see their defense and come away disappointed.

Rasheer is one of the few with the full package. Even his demeanor screams Spur. Stone faced and confident.

there are players with more impressive stat lines currently that get attention, but compared to those guys, Rasheer looks like an NBA guy as opposed to just a college guy. The draft order will shuffle a lot between now and then and just like BG said, Rasheer will be a riser (unless he gets injured or something).

Saraf I chose as a second 1st rd guy because he plays a position and style different than Rasheer and plays convincingly good. There maybe others in that range I wouldn’t mind drafting as the number 2 guy along with Rasheer.

That stroke is crisp. I like him already.

[Mr. Body]

Other than Flagg and probably Harper this may be the worst draft in a long, long time, even worse than last year. The NBA is in trouble if this is the kind of talent coming in.

[Pauleta14]

Ask yourself...is that lmao worthy or an actual possibility with PATFO?

Oh I did and it is 100% a possibility + if you listen they laugh at themselves because they're aware Spurs/Wemby needs shooters

But that's how much Vecenie like Ben Saraf, because "he does everything else super well"

It looks like whoever we get will be a long term project anyway bc the real short term dogs will be gone after the lottery...

[Pauleta14]

Other than Flagg and probably Harper this may be the worst draft in a long, long time, even worse than last year. The NBA is in trouble if this is the kind of talent coming in.

Like in soccer, the sport rewards now too much potential vs merit/actual production.

It won't get better as long as there's one and done and the CBA pays generational money to unproven prospects. You naturally take away a huge part of the development and incentive for the kids.

There's never been so few real talent in football/soccer and I'm afraid the NBA is taking the same road for the same reasons.

[LeBowen]

Oh I did and it is 100% a possibility + if you listen they laugh at themselves because they're aware Spurs/Wemby needs shooters

But that's how much Vecenie like Ben Saraf, because "he does everything else super well"

It looks like whoever we get will be a long term project anyway bc the real short term dogs will be gone after the lottery...

I think that the odds of getting more than one FRP rookie are really low, unless it's dumb luck and we get top10 picks.
We won't have any room to fuck around next season and if they haven't taken another rookie last year, they certainly won't do it in this draft.

I'm fairly convinced they'll either consolidate the picks and trade up or just trade one pick away.
I just hope it's an actual trade for an existing player and not just for more future picks.

[Russ]

Other than Flagg and probably Harper this may be the worst draft in a long, long time, even worse than last year. The NBA is in trouble if this is the kind of talent coming in.

Every year people talk about how the next year's draft will be a revelation.

If this year's draft is as bad as last year, with several picks (all likely worse than #8), who knows what the Spurs will do -- they didn't even exercise the 8th pick last year.

(They could have, and probably should have, taken Topic at that spot.)

[Pauleta14]

I think that the odds of getting more than one FRP rookie are really low, unless it's dumb luck and we get top10 picks.
We won't have any room to fuck around next season and if they haven't taken another rookie last year, they certainly won't do it in this draft.

I'm fairly convinced they'll either consolidate the picks and trade up or just trade one pick away.
I just hope it's an actual trade for an existing player and not just for more future picks.

I think PATFO will keep ST alive by picking a guy who can't shoot "but does everything else ok" because it's so much harder to make a great shooter who can't drive a good ball handler than working on a player's shot.

Or pick a foreigner tht they'll send in europe for a cple years

It's sad, cynical but so PATFO

We have to keep in mind that for all our frustrations and hope for quick roster changes, in PATFO's mind we're right on schedule, maybe even in advance.

They'll never trade for Fox or any guard imo but only a wing or big with rare(r) skills but nobody with the Spurs profile (forget Beal Ingram or Zion for ex) is available, the only good ones are in team in rebuilding mode with no interest to get rid of them.

PATFO will stay put and look only for market opportunities that come to them.

edit/ sorry it's a cross with another thread haha

[Mr. Body]

Like in soccer, the sport rewards now too much potential vs merit/actual production.

It won't get better as long as there's one and done and the CBA pays generational money to unproven prospects. You naturally take away a huge part of the development and incentive for the kids.

There's never been so few real talent in football/soccer and I'm afraid the NBA is taking the same road for the same reasons.

It's an increasingly specialized league due to rules changes and ignoring calling the game properly, so players need very restricted skill sets that are hard to find. And, as you say, players are drafted well before they used to be.

It got dropped like a hot potato, probably because it made expensive, high placed people unhappy, but when Ignite fell apart there was dialogue about how abysmal the AAU system is and how it's wrecking year after year of American players, and that's still a big part of the problem. Players spamming the same moves over and over adding to how narrow the game is now.

[Mr. Body]

I think PATFO will keep ST alive by picking a guy who can't shoot "but does everything else ok" because it's so much harder to make a great shooter who can't drive a good ball handler than working on a player's shot.

Or pick a foreigner tht they'll send in europe for a cple years

It's sad, cynical but so PATFO

We have to keep in mind that for all our frustrations and hope for quick roster changes, in PATFO's mind we're right on schedule, maybe even in advance.

They'll never trade for Fox or any guard imo but only a wing or big with rare(r) skills but nobody with the Spurs profile (forget Beal Ingram or Zion for ex) is available, the only good ones are in team in rebuilding mode with no interest to get rid of them.

PATFO will stay put and look only for market opportunities that come to them.

edit/ sorry it's a cross with another thread haha

Most players in every draft can't shoot. It's a really narrow skill set combined with the size and athleticism the league needs.

[Pauleta14]

It's an increasingly specialized league due to rules changes and ignoring calling the game properly, so players need very restricted skill sets that are hard to find. And, as you say, players are drafted well before they used to be.

It got dropped like a hot potato, probably because it made expensive, high placed people unhappy, but when Ignite fell apart there was dialogue about how abysmal the AAU system is and how it's wrecking year after year of American players, and that's still a big part of the problem. Players spamming the same moves over and over adding to how narrow the game is now.


The balance between sport and entertainment has always been the issue in America. Contrary to the rest of the world where entertainment is a consequence of Sports, in the US it's the opposite and sports can only exist if it brings enough eyeballs to them.

The NBA is now trapped after decades of rules changes that were led by entertainment/rating objectives rather than sport/competitiveness.

The result? Today Lamelo Ball leads all guards in ASG ranking despite being the representative of everything that is wrong in AAU and today's NBA

But the worst art remains the CBA and the coming years will give unproven prospect absurd deals.

I'm not jealous, I just put myself in their shoes, why hurt yourself if the goal is to win the most money and extend your career as much as possible? Rare are led by passion only.

They give it all to get drafted and then the last year or so before extension...

[Pauleta14]

Most players in every draft can't shoot. It's a really narrow skill set combined with the size and athleticism the league needs.

There are levels in "can't shoot"

[Mr. Body]

The balance between sport and entertainment has always been the issue in America. Contrary to the rest of the world where entertainment is a consequence of Sports, in the US it's the opposite and sports can only exist if it brings enough eyeballs to them.

The NBA is now trapped after decades of rules changes that were led by entertainment/rating objectives rather than sport/competitiveness.

The result? Today Lamelo Ball leads all guards in ASG ranking despite being the representative of everything that is wrong in AAU and today's NBA

But the worst art remains the CBA and the coming years will give unproven prospect absurd deals.

I'm not jealous, I just put myself in their shoes, why hurt yourself if the goal is to win the most money and extend your career as much as possible? Rare are led by passion only.

They give it all to get drafted and then the last year or so before extension...

The NIL was a generally good thing in concept, but is leading to nothing schools like BYU just buying talented freshman probably to just straight up squander them. It'll be generation after generation of American player who is just ruined.

It's Americans in general. Americans are frivolous, complacent, lazy, have no idea about value other than what is flashy or what the big media conglomerates tell them they should consume. This capacity was always there, but it's gotten far, far, far worse. Just a huge population of the stupidest, most arrogant wasteoids imaginable, and not a single one of them will get off their asses to defend any parts of their lives much less anyone else's.

[CorrectCrusader]

Wish y'all would stop declaring drafts bad before they even get 2 years in the NBA

[Pauleta14]

The NIL was a generally good thing in concept, but is leading to nothing schools like BYU just buying talented freshman probably to just straight up squander them. It'll be generation after generation of American player who is just ruined.

It's Americans in general. Americans are frivolous, complacent, lazy, have no idea about value other than what is flashy or what the big media conglomerates tell them they should consume. This capacity was always there, but it's gotten far, far, far worse. Just a huge population of the stupidest, most arrogant wasteoids imaginable, and not a single one of them will get off their asses to defend any parts of their lives much less anyone else's.

It's not just the US, it's the whole world that is trapped in a capitalistic system where money leads every decisions more than ever.

There used to be a (cultural/moral) balance but it slowly disappeared with each new generation getting better at the "game" and more cynical than the previous.

As long as we haven't found a better system, we're litterally trapped. It's not that hard to anticipate the next decades not just in the US.

We're going WWE style in every sports imo

[Mr. Body]

Wish y'all would stop declaring drafts bad before they even get 2 years in the NBA

You're right, we shouldn't even bother with evaluations at all. Just pick players randomly.

[Pauleta14]

https://youtu.be/jbJ8wo2DOjg?si=T1v7HS9n8Iob9nm3

[sfernald]

Honestly I’m not that excited about this draft. Cooper Flagg is an incredible player that would probably bring Spurs a championship but it’s hard to get excited about him. He would probably love playing D&D with Timmy though if that’s something. The rest of the prospects are just sorta uhhhh. I could see Castle getting drafted earlier than #4 in this draft actually if that tells us anything.

[exstatic]

Honestly I’m not that excited about this draft. Cooper Flagg is an incredible player that would probably bring Spurs a championship but it’s hard to get excited about him. He would probably love playing D&D with Timmy though if that’s something. The rest of the prospects are just sorta uhhhh. I could see Castle getting drafted earlier than #4 in this draft actually if that tells us anything.

Edgelords gotta edge.

[sfernald]

Edgelords gotta edge.

Where would you draft him in this draft? Before the Lithuanian version of Nikola Topic or the Russian version of Nikola Topic or the French version of Nikola Topic?

[exstatic]

Where would you draft him in this draft? Before the Lithuanian version of Nikola Topic or the Russian version of Nikola Topic or the French version of Nikola Topic?

I’d have Flagg,Harper,Demin,Edgecombe,Jakucionis and Tre Johnson all ahead of him. On par would be Traore and Fears.

[CGD]

Sam Vecine’s latest of Ace Bailey. Gotta say this left me cold on the prospect, though the size and shotmaking are interesting.

https://youtu.be/PQw9imDMEc8?feature=shared

[exstatic]

Sam Vecine’s latest of Ace Bailey. Gotta say this left me cold on the prospect, though the size and shotmaking are interesting.

https://youtu.be/PQw9imDMEc8?feature=shared

I’ve been cooling on him for a bit now. His counting stats are meh to OK, and sometimes, you can find stuff in the analytics, but there isn’t much there, either. He’s barely an adequate 3 point shooter in college (34.7%), and he’ll have to contend with the further NBA line and better, more athletic defenders. There isn’t even really a shooting signal with his 60% FTs.

[SpursBills]

A few notes about this draft, in general and also compared to 2024:

- if you are a believer of "younger is better" when it comes to drafting, there is a lot to like here. G league ignite is gone, and so top prospects are not shitting the bed in a worthless league. Quite a number of top freshmen prospects actually playing like top freshman prospects. Even more, it seems like there are quite a few guys who are very, very young even for their class. Nikola Topic was one of the only guys under 19 on draft day last year but this year Flagg, Essengue, and Fears will all be even younger and Jakucionis will have just turned 19

- SEC basketball this year is absolutely insane. This may be the most talented conference top to bottom in many years. As of today, they have 6 of the top 11 and 9 of the top 25 ranked teams, and previously undefeated Oklahoma just dropped out of the top 25. What this means is that anybody who puts up numbers/efficiency in conference play, especially freshman/sophomores, should be be somebody worth noting, as they are probably going up against future pros night in and night out.

- It'll be interesting to see what the next draft "market inefficiency" will be, if there is one in this draft. Many of the rising teams in the league have at least 1 core guy that came from a non-top 4 pick, and who had some flaw that caused him to drop. Wagner at 8 (low usage). JDub at 12 (age). Sengun at 16 (mold). Bane at 30 (measurements). If the spurs are going to build through the draft like they seem to be hell-bent on doing, they most likely need to get a similar elite mid-round pull that doesn't rely on ping pong balls.

- Spurs will have a tough decision to make when it comes to prioritizing shooting. Typically, there is a lot of shooting variance before age 21 and it is often a good bet to take guys who are strong elsewhere in hopes that they can learn shoot later. I think this has been their strategy in the past, and it is one that I agree with. However, whether because of poor coaching or just bad bets or because not enough time has passed yet, there seems to be a significant lack of shooting on the team right now and I'm not sure if the Spurs can survive holding true to the same strategy.

Buttershots who have strong athleticism/IQ/passing indicators like Saraf, Edgecomb, CMB, Penda, or Essengue who would otherwise be good bets may present far too much risk to the spurs and be passed up for better shooters with less potential like Knueppel, McNeeley, Karaban. At the same time, if the spurs are looking for that elite mid-round pull who can develop into a core guy, buttershots might your best bet in doing so.

[Mr. Body]

I don't know if the SEC is truly that insane or every other conference is pretty bad this year, tbh.

[Mr. Body]

Overall, this draft right now for me has a clear 1a and probable 1b in Flagg and Harper.

Then there's a small basket of possible next rank with Bailey, Jakucionas, and maybe Tre Johnson. Then things get really bleak in terms of certain pro players and even those three are a bit shaky in that tier.

To me, the strategy is to splurge to get to a Kaspar or Tre Johnson, guys who have skill-sets that should work well, or mop up a couple potential role players. If they get like a 12 and 14 pick, see if a Kon or McNeeley is still there or try out a Derik Queen. But I think we'll see some players move up during conference play.

[exstatic]

Overall, this draft right now for me has a clear 1a and probable 1b in Flagg and Harper.

Then there's a small basket of possible next rank with Bailey, Jakucionas, and maybe Tre Johnson. Then things get really bleak in terms of certain pro players and even those three are a bit shaky in that tier.

To me, the strategy is to splurge to get to a Kaspar or Tre Johnson, guys who have skill-sets that should work well, or mop up a couple potential role players. If they get like a 12 and 14 pick, see if a Kon or McNeeley is still there or try out a Derik Queen. But I think we'll see some players move up during conference play.

Yeah, it’s still pretty early. In past drafts guys like Anthony Black and Taylor Hendricks were back half first rounders at this point, but wound up being picked top 10.

[CGD]

Overall, this draft right now for me has a clear 1a and probable 1b in Flagg and Harper.

Then there's a small basket of possible next rank with Bailey, Jakucionas, and maybe Tre Johnson. Then things get really bleak in terms of certain pro players and even those three are a bit shaky in that tier.

To me, the strategy is to splurge to get to a Kaspar or Tre Johnson, guys who have skill-sets that should work well, or mop up a couple potential role players. If they get like a 12 and 14 pick, see if a Kon or McNeeley is still there or try out a Derik Queen. But I think we'll see some players move up during conference play.

Agree with this assessment. I’m increasing partial to grabbing a C with one of the picks after seeing how much of a liability that’s been this year.

[Kurik]

My initial impression of this draft is that the sweet spots in terms of value and fit are like top 6 and then 20-25. If no one falls to the Spurs in their projected range I’m in favor of picking up some older prospects like Kam Jones and Rasheer Fleming if a trade down is possible maybe pick up a veteran in the process.

[onechance87]

miles byrd could be a good one in late first round

[sfernald]

I’d have Flagg,Harper,Demin,Edgecombe,Jakucionis and Tre Johnson all ahead of him. On par would be Traore and Fears.

Are you saying that knowing what we know about Castle in the NBA or are you comparing prospect to prospect?

[exstatic]

Are you saying that knowing what we know about Castle in the NBA or are you comparing prospect to prospect?

Prospect to prospect.

[Knoxxx]

Alex Karaban anyone? Projects to be there with ATL pick.

[BackHome]

He has to be in consideration and does fit a need

[Mr. Body]

Been a pretty dull college season so far. Last year Kentucky with its bizarre rotations and play and Tennessee with Dalton Knecht were must-watches. And then UConn as they started rolling. This year just doesn't have any of that. Rutgers has two top prospects and they suck. A player like Jeremiah Fears is supposed to be electric but whenever I tune in he's invisible or just isn't that phenomenal. Sheppard/Dillingham were really entertaining last year.

[jesterbobman]

If we have picks 39 and 41, Miles Byrd is on the board and we don't pick him I'm going to throw a fit (with very limited exceptions, like Jase Richardson and Rasheer Flemming being there).

[mo7888]

If we have picks 39 and 41, Miles Byrd is on the board and we don't pick him I'm going to throw a fit (with very limited exceptions, like Jase Richardson and Rasheer Flemming being there).

I've been watching some film on Jase. I like it and I like his fit here. I expect him to rise into the late teens by draft night.

[BackHome]

With the Hawks pick I like the following players:

Rasheer Fleming - PF
Ian Jackson - SG
Sergio De Larrea - PG/SG
Alex Karban - SF/PF
Miles Bryd- SG

All 5 players I think will be good to great 3 point shooters

[rascal]

Been a pretty dull college season so far. Last year Kentucky with its bizarre rotations and play and Tennessee with Dalton Knecht were must-watches. And then UConn as they started rolling. This year just doesn't have any of that. Rutgers has two top prospects and they suck. A player like Jeremiah Fears is supposed to be electric but whenever I tune in he's invisible or just isn't that phenomenal. Sheppard/Dillingham were really entertaining last year.

Just another year where Duke will win it all.

[Mr. Body]

Just another year where Duke will win it all.

The last time they won it was ten years ago though.

[rjv]

Just another year where Duke will win it all.

until they don't.

[objective]

Fleming looks a lot like Naz Reid. Reid measured 6-8.75 barefoot with a 7-3.25 wingspan but wasn't a credible 3 point shooter until the NBA

[Knoxxx]

Kalkbrenner, C Creighton, shoots 44% from 3 and 3.2 blocks per 36. Mocking #36 on Tankathon. Make it happen!!!

[SpursBills]

If we have picks 39 and 41, Miles Byrd is on the board and we don't pick him I'm going to throw a fit (with very limited exceptions, like Jase Richardson and Rasheer Flemming being there).

This guy didn't even pop up on my radar until you guys mentioned him in here. I like what I see - would be interested to see what his combine measurements are as he looks very long just based on his highlights.

Numbers pop off the page, and I'm not as worried about his main red flag which seems to be a poor ability to finish at the rim. But he seems like a decent bet to be a good 3 and D wing given his shooting indicators with the possibility of more given his handle. Can never have too many of this archetype.

[objective]

Any slow bench players scoring 8 per game that Wright can wildly over draft and believe is a franchise player?

[BackHome]

Who ever backed drafting Primo should have been fired or pushed out of any role regarding player talent

[BackHome]

This guy didn't even pop up on my radar until you guys mentioned him in here. I like what I see - would be interested to see what his combine measurements are as he looks very long just based on his highlights.

Numbers pop off the page, and I'm not as worried about his main red flag which seems to be a poor ability to finish at the rim. But he seems like a decent bet to be a good 3 and D wing given his shooting indicators with the possibility of more given his handle. Can never have too many of this archetype.

He kind of reminds me of Vassell which not bad for a second round pick?

[Kurik]

Ian Jackson has been on a tear recently. He doesn’t do a lot of things great but he scores in bunches efficiently and could be a flamethrower 6th man.

[mo7888]

If we trade back or with one of our 2nd's I like Tyrese Proctor. I think, at worst, he's a career backup at the PG spot. That's a good value at pick #25 or lower.

[Knoxxx]

Top NBA Draft Prospect Dink Pate Reveals San Antonio Spurs Wemby Wish - Athlon Sports (https://athlonsports.com/nba/nba-draft-san-antonio-spurs-top-prospect-dink-pate-landing-spots-victor-wembanyama-reveals-wemby-wish)

[mo7888]

Top NBA Draft Prospect Dink Pate Reveals San Antonio Spurs Wemby Wish - Athlon Sports (https://athlonsports.com/nba/nba-draft-san-antonio-spurs-top-prospect-dink-pate-landing-spots-victor-wembanyama-reveals-wemby-wish)

I think he's got a good bit of upside, but I don't think he's a top 15-20 pick at this point. If we trade back, the Nets maybe, I could see him being a target. I like the length and 3pt%. He is a fit next to Castle too.

[Mr. Body]

Top NBA Draft Prospect Dink Pate Reveals San Antonio Spurs Wemby Wish - Athlon Sports (https://athlonsports.com/nba/nba-draft-san-antonio-spurs-top-prospect-dink-pate-landing-spots-victor-wembanyama-reveals-wemby-wish)

Prospect Floating Around the Second Round Reveals San Antonio Spurs Wemby Wish

[ginobilized]

Top NBA Draft Prospect Dink Pate Reveals San Antonio Spurs Wemby Wish - Athlon Sports (https://athlonsports.com/nba/nba-draft-san-antonio-spurs-top-prospect-dink-pate-landing-spots-victor-wembanyama-reveals-wemby-wish)

I like the idea of Dink Pate, a lot. TX kid and so young. If the work ethic and IQ are there, I could see him becoming something like a Cade Cunningham lite. Also, high bust potential. The fact that he wants to come here is worth something. Picks 21-30, I could see taking a shot. Early 2nd round is a no-brainer. At worst he spends more time in the G-League.

[scott]

Ian Jackson has been on a tear recently. He doesn’t do a lot of things great but he scores in bunches efficiently and could be a flamethrower 6th man.

When I watched Jackson live I got major Lonnie Walker vibes (not in a bad way). Extremely athletic, microwave scorer, looked to lack attentiveness and concentration on the defensive end. The Lonnie archetype is useful, but common. I think Jackson would be a worthy pick in the 20s (similar to where Branham, also of a similar archetype, was taken). If it works out, you've got a nice bench scorer (which we need). If it doesn't, that's just typical of picks in the 20s.

Edit: I like his teammate, Drake Powell, better as a prospect. More of a 3&D archetype, but we do need that bench self-creator.

[mystargtr34]

When I watched Jackson live I got major Lonnie Walker vibes (not in a bad way). Extremely athletic, microwave scorer, looked to lack attentiveness and concentration on the defensive end. The Lonnie archetype is useful, but common. I think Jackson would be a worthy pick in the 20s (similar to where Branham, also of a similar archetype, was taken). If it works out, you've got a nice bench scorer (which we need). If it doesn't, that's just typical of picks in the 20s.

Edit: I like his teammate, Drake Powell, better as a prospect. More of a 3&D archetype, but we do need that bench self-creator.

We already have a bench self creator. His name is Devin Vasseline (minus the self creator part).

In all seriousness I agree we do need that archetype. There’s just about 3 or 4 other higher priorities.

[mo7888]

Anybody watched Sergio de Larrea? Any thoughts?

[Dejounte]

Anybody watched Sergio de Larrea? Any thoughts?

From the little I’ve seen, the offensive awareness pops off the screen. I’d rank him above Hugo and Saraf at the moment just because they all fit the same mold of x-factor guys you wouldn’t really build around even if they reached their max potential

[mo7888]

From the little I’ve seen, the offensive awareness pops off the screen. I’d rank him above Hugo and Saraf at the moment just because they all fit the same mold of x-factor guys you wouldn’t really build around even if they reached their max potential

I was watching a little video of him earlier and, like you said, he pops off the screen. I'm not sure what his defense is like, but there's a little bit of Manu flair in his game. Right now I'd probably have him 3rd or 4th on my PG board with only Harper and Jackucionis substantially ahead of him.

[CGD]

Prospect Floating Around the Second Round Reveals San Antonio Spurs Wemby Wish

Cool. I too want to play with Wemby.

[onechance87]

chicago going full tank now it seems

[Dejounte]

Current tier list, in order of who I think the Spurs will draft first

Tier 1 - has great potential to be an elite two way player, or offense is so good that the rest doesnt matter
-Flagg
-Dylan Harper

Tier 2 - has some potential to be an elite two way player, or may someday be an offensive engine
-Rasheer Fleming
-Kasparas

Tier 3 - 2nd option potential on offense
-Ace Bailey - reminds me of young Rudy Gay
-Edgecombe - reminds me of Donovan Mitchell

Tier 4 - high risk, high potential guys
-Egor Demin
-Sergio de Larria
-Ben Saraf
-Nolan Traore
-Miles Byrd

Tier 5 - obvious, more exciting guys, but less of a sure thing
-Noa Essengue
-Will Riley
-Fears
-Boogie Fland
-Hugo Gonzales

Tier 6 - Boring sure thing guys
-Kon Knueppel - reminds me of Jordan Hawkins
-Kam Jones
-Alex Karaban
-Labaron Philon

Tier 7 - decent players, but probably wont address the team’s issues
-Derik Queen - reminds me of Sengun
-Collin Murray Boyles
-Danny Wolf
-Thomas Sorber
-Adou Thiero
-Asa Newell

Tier 8 - bust
-McNeely

i would be happy with any guy from tier 1-4

[SpursBills]

We need shooting badly (obviously). We've talked about trade targets like Cam Johnson, Lauri Markannen, Trey Murphy etc. I wanted to take a look to see if there were any prospects similar to this in the draft.

When looking at pre-draft trends, my favorite type of prospect is usually the high IQ functional athlete +/- a jumper - lots of stocks, good guard rebounders, good big man passers - think Devin Carter last year, CMB this year. However, the tall wing shooter represents a departure from the aforementioned prospect. If we look at Cam, Lauri, and Trey, we see that all of them had very low STL% and BLK%, not really great passers, and weren't great rebounders. In fact, the only things that matter for these guys are 1) They're really tall and 2) They had pre-draft shooting indicators predicting an elite stroke.

Lauri 7'0" age 19 season - 8.6 3P/100, 42% 3, 84% FT, BPM 8.6
Cam 6'9" age 23 season - 10.3 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 84% FT, BPM 12.1
Trey 6'9" age 21 season - 10.7 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 82% FT, BPM 7.2

In fact, and this may be obvious, but drafted tall shooters with good shooting indicators (specifically good FT%) tend to do very well in the league irrespective of anything else. Quick filter of drafted prospects with >35% 3PT and >80% FT listed at 6'8" or above yields a lot of promising shooters and NBA successes - Cam, Brandon Miller, Paul George, Trey Murphy, Jabari Smith, Tristan da Silva. When filtering out outlier bad STL% and AST:TO, the only bust is Dylan Windler, who is on the shorter side (now listed as 6'6"), and whose career FT% is 76%.

The logical next question to ask from this would be - is Alex Karaban next in line? He seems to be the most obvious "tall wing shooter" mentioned in this draft
Karaban age 22 - 11.1 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 83% FT, BPM 7.2

On surface level analysis, the answer is a resounding "yes", but there are a few factors that give me pause
1. His age-adjusted BPM is relatively low relative to the aforementioned 3 guys, who put up better numbers relative to their age
2. His eFG%/TS% really nosedives against top 100/top 50 competition - TS drops down to 56% against top 100 comp, whereas the aforementioned 3 guys were all 63%+ - this may indicate difficulty getting his shot off against bigger/more athletic defenders
3. Really anemic steal rate - not just normal bad, but bad bad, which was one of the filters on the aforementioned list that predicted bust

These are the 3 factors that I'll be looking at for the rest of the season - specifically, how his shooting holds up against decent competition first and foremost, and also that hopefully his STL rate starts ticking up.

Otherwise, there are no other candidates who can fit the archetype described above. Payton Sandfort has a very outside shot, but he profiles as much more of a Sam Hauser type of guy.

Just for fun, if we drop the height requirement from 6'8"+ to 6'7", we actually get Miles Byrd

Miles Byrd, age 20 - 12.5 3P/100, career 36% 3, career 83% FT, BPM 12.4 (6.7 OBPM) - (props to Dejounte and jesterbobman for finding this guy!)
TS% is 60% against top 100 comp and is very low mainly due to his atrocious at rim % which when combined with his low rebound rate indicates that he may lack the strength to go up against NBA athletes given that his frame is also quite wiry. Unlike all the other guys on the list, he is actually a stock machine with a decent AST:TO. He will be another one to watch throughout the season to see if his numbers hold up.

Outside of these two guys, it looks like a barren wasteland out there when it comes to tall wing shooters for this draft class thus far.

[onechance87]

Current tier list, in order of who I think the Spurs will draft first

Tier 1 - has great potential to be an elite two way player, or offense is so good that the rest doesnt matter
-Flagg
-Dylan Harper

Tier 2 - has some potential to be an elite two way player, or may someday be an offensive engine
-Rasheer Fleming
-Kasparas

Tier 3 - 2nd option potential on offense
-Ace Bailey - reminds me of young Rudy Gay
-Edgecombe - reminds me of Donovan Mitchell

Tier 4 - high risk, high potential guys
-Egor Demin
-Sergio de Larria
-Ben Saraf
-Nolan Traore
-Miles Byrd

Tier 5 - Boring sure thing guys
-Kon Knueppel - reminds me of Jordan Hawkins
-Kam Jones
-Alex Karaban
-Labaron Philon

Tier 6 - obvious, more exciting guys, but less of a sure thing
-Noa Essengue
-Will Riley
-Fears
-Boogie Fland
-Hugo Gonzales

Tier 7 - decent players, but probably wont address the team’s issues
-Derik Queen - reminds me of Sengun
-Collin Murray Boyles
-Danny Wolf
-Thomas Sorber
-Adou Thiero
-Asa Newell

Tier 8 - bust
-McNeely

i would be happy with any guy from tier 1-4

we badly need a playmaker.Just not sold on castle.Whoever is the best playmaker and shooter thats on the board is
who we shoud target.

[Dejounte]

we badly need a playmaker.Just not sold on castle.Whoever is the best playmaker and shooter thats on the board is
who we shoud target.

Playmaking wont stop our opponents from bombing us from the 3 pt land, perimeter defense will. Weak point of attack defense and perimeter defense are our main issues.

[onechance87]

Playmaking wont stop our opponents from bombing us from the 3 pt land, perimeter defense will. Weak point of attack defense and perimeter defense are our main issues.

Drafting castle and sochan are suppose to help with that.

[Dejounte]

Drafting castle and sochan are suppose to help with that.

I think we need more help tbh

OKC flooded their team with these types of guys: Cason Wallace, Caruso, Dort, and so forth.

[LeBowen]

Unless we luck our way into another top5 pick, I don't want to draft a playmaker.
Rookie/sophmore guard combo would set us back even more, not worth it unless it's a player with star ceiling.

Just get Fox and be done with it. Use the highest pick on BPA wing and trade other picks for rotation pieces.

[Dejounte]

A couple days ago I was using barttovik and sorted the defensive metrics from best to worst and definitely was surprised i didn’t see Karaban at anywhere near the top, similar to your findings SpursBills (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=18470). You’re right, i might drop this guy for good

[mo7888]

A couple days ago I was using barttovik and sorted the defensive metrics from best to worst and definitely was surprised i didn’t see Karaban at anywhere near the top, similar to your findings SpursBills (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=18470). You’re right, i might drop this guy for good

Unless we're at the top and get into the top 3 it sort of looks like to me that we should draft a PG that can shoot and has some ability to get to the rim. The use that 2nd pick either in a trade or to draft a lower rated 3-D guy. I'd prefer trading it unless we have some Intel that we could get Aldama/ Naz (preferably both).

[Dejounte]

Unless we're at the top and get into the top 3 it sort of looks like to me that we should draft a PG that can shoot and has some ability to get to the rim. The use that 2nd pick either in a trade or to draft a lower rated 3-D guy. I'd prefer trading it unless we have some Intel that we could get Aldama/ Naz (preferably both).

All the non top 5 projected pgs are mid so far tbh

[RC_Drunkford]

gotta draft a wing, this draft is loaded with wings

[Truckules]

Outside of these two guys, it looks like a barren wasteland out there when it comes to tall wing shooters for this draft class thus far.

Kon Knueppel and Liam McNeeley also fit the archetype you're looking for, and I think either would be good picks in the 8-12 range where the Spurs should be picking. Knueppel is more of a big guard than a big wing. I also have some concerns about what positions he'll be able to defend at the next level, but I still like him better than a lot of the alternatives at this range.

I'm a big fan of McNeeley, and that's who I hope the Spurs target assuming they don't trade picks. He was handling a heavy offensive load for a tough to play for UConn team as a freshman until he got injured. I think he's kind of slipping through the cracks given that he was a top 10 high school recruit who's producing at a good school. Seems like that's nothing new given that the same thing happened to Castle at UConn.

[Mr. Body]

We need shooting badly (obviously). We've talked about trade targets like Cam Johnson, Lauri Markannen, Trey Murphy etc. I wanted to take a look to see if there were any prospects similar to this in the draft.

When looking at pre-draft trends, my favorite type of prospect is usually the high IQ functional athlete +/- a jumper - lots of stocks, good guard rebounders, good big man passers - think Devin Carter last year, CMB this year. However, the tall wing shooter represents a departure from the aforementioned prospect. If we look at Cam, Lauri, and Trey, we see that all of them had very low STL% and BLK%, not really great passers, and weren't great rebounders. In fact, the only things that matter for these guys are 1) They're really tall and 2) They had pre-draft shooting indicators predicting an elite stroke.

Lauri 7'0" age 19 season - 8.6 3P/100, 42% 3, 84% FT, BPM 8.6
Cam 6'9" age 23 season - 10.3 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 84% FT, BPM 12.1
Trey 6'9" age 21 season - 10.7 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 82% FT, BPM 7.2

In fact, and this may be obvious, but drafted tall shooters with good shooting indicators (specifically good FT%) tend to do very well in the league irrespective of anything else. Quick filter of drafted prospects with >35% 3PT and >80% FT listed at 6'8" or above yields a lot of promising shooters and NBA successes - Cam, Brandon Miller, Paul George, Trey Murphy, Jabari Smith, Tristan da Silva. When filtering out outlier bad STL% and AST:TO, the only bust is Dylan Windler, who is on the shorter side (now listed as 6'6"), and whose career FT% is 76%.

The logical next question to ask from this would be - is Alex Karaban next in line? He seems to be the most obvious "tall wing shooter" mentioned in this draft
Karaban age 22 - 11.1 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 83% FT, BPM 7.2

On surface level analysis, the answer is a resounding "yes", but there are a few factors that give me pause
1. His age-adjusted BPM is relatively low relative to the aforementioned 3 guys, who put up better numbers relative to their age
2. His eFG%/TS% really nosedives against top 100/top 50 competition - TS drops down to 56% against top 100 comp, whereas the aforementioned 3 guys were all 63%+ - this may indicate difficulty getting his shot off against bigger/more athletic defenders
3. Really anemic steal rate - not just normal bad, but bad bad, which was one of the filters on the aforementioned list that predicted bust

These are the 3 factors that I'll be looking at for the rest of the season - specifically, how his shooting holds up against decent competition first and foremost, and also that hopefully his STL rate starts ticking up.

Otherwise, there are no other candidates who can fit the archetype described above. Payton Sandfort has a very outside shot, but he profiles as much more of a Sam Hauser type of guy.

Just for fun, if we drop the height requirement from 6'8"+ to 6'7", we actually get Miles Byrd

Miles Byrd, age 20 - 12.5 3P/100, career 36% 3, career 83% FT, BPM 12.4 (6.7 OBPM) - (props to Dejounte and jesterbobman for finding this guy!)
TS% is 60% against top 100 comp and is very low mainly due to his atrocious at rim % which when combined with his low rebound rate indicates that he may lack the strength to go up against NBA athletes given that his frame is also quite wiry. Unlike all the other guys on the list, he is actually a stock machine with a decent AST:TO. He will be another one to watch throughout the season to see if his numbers hold up.

Outside of these two guys, it looks like a barren wasteland out there when it comes to tall wing shooters for this draft class thus far.

Not pushing for Karaban, but someone pointed out how the UConn system depresses players' steal rates. Newton and Spencer had much higher steal rates before transferring there. Castle had a low steal rate. If true, Hurley has them playing a very risk-averse positional defense.

[mo7888]

All the non top 5 projected pgs are mid so far tbh

Most everyone else is mid too, though

[LeBowen]

Most everyone else is mid too, though

Mid wings are harder to find than mid guards and I'd take a couple more mid wings over what we have right now.

[mo7888]

Mid wings are harder to find than mid guards and I'd take a couple more mid wings over what we have right now.

I get that, but id rather trade a pick for a known quantity at wing than draft one to develop unless it's a high end wing.

[scott]

A couple days ago I was using barttovik and sorted the defensive metrics from best to worst and definitely was surprised i didn’t see Karaban at anywhere near the top, similar to your findings SpursBills (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=18470). You’re right, i might drop this guy for good

When I watched Karaban live in person, what struck me was he just looked like the typical upperclassman putting up numbers against younger competition, but not a whole lot of athleticism. It was only one game (in which UCONN lost to Memphis), but I came away pretty unimpressed. McNeeley didn't do much that game either, but I saw more potential in his off the ball movement than what I did from Karaban, fwiw

[Dejounte]

All star wings are generally easier to find past the top 10 than point guards, IMO…even if they might not have the hype during and before draft day. Paul George, Kawhi, Giannis…

I honestly dont know any known commodity wings available right now who would move the needle. Yeah, you can get a shooter like Cam but he won’t solve or improve our perimeter defense woes at all… probably better to take a chance during the draft to find a more complete player…

[Knoxxx]

I think he's got a good bit of upside, but I don't think he's a top 15-20 pick at this point. If we trade back, the Nets maybe, I could see him being a target. I like the length and 3pt%. He is a fit next to Castle too.

He’s mocking more like 40ish where we have two picks. The article exaggerates his current draft ranking.

[mo7888]

He’s mocking more like 40ish where we have two picks. The article exaggerates his current draft ranking.

He's 24 on tankathon

[mo7888]

He's 24 on tankathon

Edit: You're right. I thought you were commenting on Sergio, who i had brought up. My bad..

[Knoxxx]

How many rookies can we bring in next season?

[KobesAchilles]

How many rookies can we bring in next season?
All of them

[cutewizard]

No more chance for Egor Demin??

[mo7888]

No more chance for Egor Demin??

Tankathon has him mocked to us at #10

[Mr. Body]

Demin has fallen against better competition.

[SpursBills]

Current tier list, in order of who I think the Spurs will draft first

Tier 1 - has great potential to be an elite two way player, or offense is so good that the rest doesnt matter
-Flagg
-Dylan Harper

Tier 2 - has some potential to be an elite two way player, or may someday be an offensive engine
-Rasheer Fleming
-Kasparas

Tier 3 - 2nd option potential on offense
-Ace Bailey - reminds me of young Rudy Gay
-Edgecombe - reminds me of Donovan Mitchell

Tier 4 - high risk, high potential guys
-Egor Demin
-Sergio de Larria
-Ben Saraf
-Nolan Traore
-Miles Byrd

Tier 5 - obvious, more exciting guys, but less of a sure thing
-Noa Essengue
-Will Riley
-Fears
-Boogie Fland
-Hugo Gonzales

Tier 6 - Boring sure thing guys
-Kon Knueppel - reminds me of Jordan Hawkins
-Kam Jones
-Alex Karaban
-Labaron Philon

Tier 7 - decent players, but probably wont address the team’s issues
-Derik Queen - reminds me of Sengun
-Collin Murray Boyles
-Danny Wolf
-Thomas Sorber
-Adou Thiero
-Asa Newell

Tier 8 - bust
-McNeely

i would be happy with any guy from tier 1-4

Is this what you think the Spurs will do or what you think they should do? Or both?

Also curious to get your thoughts on McNeeley. He's kind of meh, but doesn't scream obvious bust to me. I totally forgot about him when I was looking at tall wing shooters for some reason. ~10 3PA/100, 38% 3, 85% FT are decent indicators for a 19 year old 6'8" wing shooter, and unlike Knueppel they don't nosedive against top 100 competition. He's got and ok OREB rate suggesting ok athleticism and mediocre defense based on D-BPR (which I prefer over D-BPM). Not anything world-beating, but his height and shooting indicators at least make him a decent bet to be useful.

[The Truth #6]

Full disclosure: I have paid zero attention to the draft this year. I heard someone talking about Danny Wolf... what's his biggest con, poor athleticism?

[Mr. Body]

McNeeley is fairly comparable as a freshman to Corey Kispert as a sophomore. (Kispert came out after his senior year.) Kispert made a big leap in 3pt% his junior year and it's unclear whether McNeeley has that in him.

[Dejounte]

Is this what you think the Spurs will do or what you think they should do? Or both?

Also curious to get your thoughts on McNeeley. He's kind of meh, but doesn't scream obvious bust to me. I totally forgot about him when I was looking at tall wing shooters for some reason. ~10 3PA/100, 38% 3, 85% FT are decent indicators for a 19 year old 6'8" wing shooter, and unlike Knueppel they don't nosedive against top 100 competition. He's got and ok OREB rate suggesting ok athleticism and mediocre defense based on D-BPR (which I prefer over D-BPM). Not anything world-beating, but his height and shooting indicators at least make him a decent bet to be useful.

It’s mostly a gut feeling. I’m not sold on wasting picks on one dimensional shooters, never have been. If they were otherworldly, sure. I just feel like those guys can be picked easily from anywhere else. We got Champagnie for nothing.

that list is what I think the Spurs will do.

mine looks like this:

Tier 1 - i would be hyped as hell obviously if we get a guy from this tier
-Flagg
-Dylan

Tier 2 - I would be very happy
-Fleming
-Kasparas
-Demin

Tier 3 - I would be happy
-Sergio de Larria
-Miles Byrd
-Ace Bailey
-Ben Saraf
-Noa Essengue

Tier 4 - I’m satisfied
-Will Riley
-Tre Johnson
-Nolan Traore
-CMB
-Edgecomb
-Derik Queen

Tier 5 - eh ok whatever
-Fears
-Fland
-Kneuppel
-Hugo Gonzales

Tier 6 - i get the fit but why
-Philon
-Kam Jones
-Karaban

tier 7 - i dont get the fit
-Adou Thiero
-Sorber
-Wolf
-Newell

tier 8 - man’s a bust
mcbusty

[Dejounte]

Full disclosure: I have paid zero attention to the draft this year. I heard someone talking about Danny Wolf... what's his biggest con, poor athleticism?

His biggest con is that he doesn’t fit this team tbh. I’ve given up the idea that Wemby can play next to another stiff big. Not happening now, likely no plans in the future. He and Derik Queen both resemble Sengun one way or another. The plays we run for Wemby would be shared with Wolf here because that’s how Wolf is made effective and we know that’s never happening— too much confusion. I do like Queen over Wolf though just because his post game is way nice, even though I still believe he’d be a bad fit here too.

[Mr. Body]

Arkansas guard Boogie Fland out for the season with a hand injury.

Guessing he stays around the late lottery area where he was. That probably wasn't going to change.

[The Truth #6]

His biggest con is that he doesn’t fit this team tbh. I’ve given up the idea that Wemby can play next to another stiff big. Not happening now, likely no plans in the future. He and Derik Queen both resemble Sengun one way or another. The plays we run for Wemby would be shared with Wolf here because that’s how Wolf is made effective and we know that’s never happening— too much confusion. I do like Queen over Wolf though just because his post game is way nice, even though I still believe he’d be a bad fit here too.

Ahh. But could he be a backup big that plays when Wemby sits? I'm not expecting starters with our Atlanta pick, for example.

[SpursBills]

It’s mostly a gut feeling. I’m not sold on wasting picks on one dimensional shooters, never have been. If they were otherworldly, sure. I just feel like those guys can be picked easily from anywhere else. We got Champagnie for nothing.

that list is what I think the Spurs will do.

mine looks like this:

Tier 1 - i would be hyped as hell obviously if we get a guy from this tier
-Flagg
-Dylan

Tier 2 - I would be very happy
-Fleming
-Kasparas
-Demin

Tier 3 - I would be happy
-Sergio de Larria
-Miles Byrd
-Ace Bailey
-Ben Saraf
-Noa Essengue

Tier 4 - I’m satisfied
-Will Riley
-Tre Johnson
-Nolan Traore
-CMB
-Edgecomb
-Derik Queen

Tier 5 - eh ok whatever
-Fears
-Fland
-Kneuppel
-Hugo Gonzales

Tier 6 - i get the fit but why
-Philon
-Kam Jones
-Karaban

tier 7 - i dont get the fit
-Adou Thiero
-Sorber
-Wolf
-Newell

tier 8 - man’s a bust
mcbusty

I mostly agree with your thoughts regarding shooters (I assume this is why you don't have Tre Johnson in your board?). I've found that taller wing shooters in general have a pretty high hit rate though, which is why I'm more indifferent to him rather than out altogether on him.

Drafted players during their freshman/sophomore year, 6'7"+, >8 3P/100, >80% FT, >34% 3P - more hits than I would have expected here:

https://i.postimg.cc/zGLSmBHw/Shooters.png

His offensive production so far is very, very similar to Duncan Robinson's sophomore year, so take that for what it's worth (completely waffle-crushes him in defensive metrics).

[Bruno]

Nolan Traoré has been way better lately with 3 very good games in a row. He will play less in this second half of the season because his team has been eliminated from its European competition which should help him in French league.

I'm not sure of his fit with Castle but he is for sure talented. A player worth keeping an eye on for Spurs pick, which is #10 right now. However, a good second half of the season might put him out of reach for Spurs.

[onechance87]

whos the best defensive bigs in this draft.Swear we turn to shit completely once we sit victor.A big who defends and
rebounds is needed bad.Bassey and collins aint it.

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPdGzlELgvs

[Dejounte]

Ahh. But could he be a backup big that plays when Wemby sits? I'm not expecting starters with our Atlanta pick, for example.
Def could. I guess it’s just personal preference that our backup big play a different style or have different tendencies than Wemby. Collins struggles with strength and gets pushed around. I think that (plus very bad defensive awareness) would be my worry with Wolf that i’d be looking more closely at.

[Dejounte]

I mostly agree with your thoughts regarding shooters (I assume this is why you don't have Tre Johnson in your board?). I've found that taller wing shooters in general have a pretty high hit rate though, which is why I'm more indifferent to him rather than out altogether on him.

Drafted players during their freshman/sophomore year, 6'7"+, >8 3P/100, >80% FT, >34% 3P - more hits than I would have expected here:

https://i.postimg.cc/zGLSmBHw/Shooters.png

His offensive production so far is very, very similar to Duncan Robinson's sophomore year, so take that for what it's worth (completely waffle-crushes him in defensive metrics).

I get the high hit rate. I just personally believe the team is not in a position to play it safe by picking a player of that archetype. They need players who can ignite an offense, and less so players who rely on other guys to generate it for them. That’s my opinion. Vassell, for example, is not showing very well that he can be relied upon to get a bucket when it’s needed most. We need a guy who can successfully ISO and score or make a play for others. I want the Spurs to go for a hail mary with all their picks.

i forgot about Tre. I inserted him in my tier 4 (could also be tier 3)

[Dejounte]

The team’s pace is going to be capped by how fast Wemby wants to play. And he’s never going to want to play as fast as the fastest teams in the NBA. Therefore, shooter types will never be optimized on this team. Shooters on this team will be more of the opportunistic type. They won’t get their 8+ shots like on other teams with Wemby here. That’s just how it is and why i think it’s a wasted investment to go for more 1 dimensional shooters, at least not until the team has found its true #2 or #3 guy.

Wemby’s unusual shot tendencies (especially shooting it with a lot left on the clock) will break any shooter’s rhythm. This is just not a good team for your typical volume shooter.

[scott]

I get the high hit rate. I just personally believe the team is not in a position to play it safe by picking a player of that archetype. They need players who can ignite an offense, and less so players who rely on other guys to generate it for them. That’s my opinion. Vassell, for example, is not showing very well that he can be relied upon to get a bucket when it’s needed most. We need a guy who can successfully ISO and score or make a play for others. I want the Spurs to go for a hail mary with all their picks.

i forgot about Tre. I inserted him in my tier 4 (could also be tier 3)

I agree about your assessment of our need for that creator, but I disagree with that approach to getting it. We also need that wing archetype. It may be secondary to needing the ignitor, but it is still a need.

If we use all our picks on Hail Marys to get that guy, we're left in a bad place when none of those players pan out. They were different drafts, but both taken at #20 - we'd be in a far better place if we took a Trey Murphy instead of a Malaki Branham. I realize that's a really easy statement to make, but the Spurs problem is not just that they lack that ignitor, we lack everything. We can't afford to get absolutely zeros from draft picks anymore. We need to at least come away with a viable role player.

For this reason, I strongly prefer that we trade for that ignitor and then use our draft picks (unless we luck into a very high pick) for those safer archetype picks. I don't want to see us use ATL's pick #19 on another roll of the dice, I'd rather get a McNeeley someone of that ilk with a lower ceiling but higher floor.

Just as you believe the team is not in a position to play it safe, I strongly feel the team is not in a position to go full Hail Mary. We need actual talent up and down the roster.

[Truckules]

It’s mostly a gut feeling. I’m not sold on wasting picks on one dimensional shooters, never have been. If they were otherworldly, sure. I just feel like those guys can be picked easily from anywhere else. We got Champagnie for nothing.


He's more than just a shooter. Don't get me wrong, shooting is his bread and butter, but he's a really solid driver and passer as well. I think he can be a secondary playmaker in the NBA. Watch his Montverde tape, and you'll see him doing a lot more of that.

[Guru of Nothing]

His biggest con is that he doesn’t fit this team tbh. I’ve given up the idea that Wemby can play next to another stiff big. Not happening now, likely no plans in the future. He and Derik Queen both resemble Sengun one way or another. The plays we run for Wemby would be shared with Wolf here because that’s how Wolf is made effective and we know that’s never happening— too much confusion. I do like Queen over Wolf though just because his post game is way nice, even though I still believe he’d be a bad fit here too.

I'm not an expert on player evaluations (far from it), especially college players, but I don't see the big stiff that you do. He might be built like Sengun, but he's got a lot of fluidity to his game. Heck, he's being hyped a little as 7'0" guard with PG-like abilities. He might fail to cut it in the NBA, but right now I see a rare combination of skills and attributes. The biggest knock on him is that he turns the ball over a lot, and he seems to be up and down quite a bit too (0 points in last game, despite 13 rebounds).

I see lots of possibilities for the Spurs when I watch his highlights and Tankathon had him projected at 28th overall earlier this week, before the zero point performance. I'll be watching this guy closely from here on out.

Not a stiff UyWD1KKw9Ew

[ginobilized]

One thing I'm seeing that is rare is that Wolf can finish with the left hand much better than most pros. He's so fluid with either hand inside that I had to really pay attention and see that he shoots 3s right handed.
Not sure how his game translates, but, I could see using a late first on him.

[TrainOfThought5]

Current tier list, in order of who I think the Spurs will draft first

Tier 1 - has great potential to be an elite two way player, or offense is so good that the rest doesnt matter
-Flagg
-Dylan Harper

Tier 2 - has some potential to be an elite two way player, or may someday be an offensive engine
-Rasheer Fleming
-Kasparas

Tier 3 - 2nd option potential on offense
-Ace Bailey - reminds me of young Rudy Gay
-Edgecombe - reminds me of Donovan Mitchell

Tier 4 - high risk, high potential guys
-Egor Demin
-Sergio de Larria
-Ben Saraf
-Nolan Traore
-Miles Byrd

Tier 5 - obvious, more exciting guys, but less of a sure thing
-Noa Essengue
-Will Riley
-Fears
-Boogie Fland
-Hugo Gonzales

Tier 6 - Boring sure thing guys
-Kon Knueppel - reminds me of Jordan Hawkins
-Kam Jones
-Alex Karaban
-Labaron Philon

Tier 7 - decent players, but probably wont address the team’s issues
-Derik Queen - reminds me of Sengun
-Collin Murray Boyles
-Danny Wolf
-Thomas Sorber
-Adou Thiero
-Asa Newell

Tier 8 - bust
-McNeely

i would be happy with any guy from tier 1-4


a young Rudy Gay? That’s just what we need.

[Dejounte]

I'm not an expert on player evaluations (far from it), especially college players, but I don't see the big stiff that you do. He might be built like Sengun, but he's got a lot of fluidity to his game. Heck, he's being hyped a little as 7'0" guard with PG-like abilities. He might fail to cut it in the NBA, but right now I see a rare combination of skills and attributes. The biggest knock on him is that he turns the ball over a lot, and he seems to be up and down quite a bit too (0 points in last game, despite 13 rebounds).

I see lots of possibilities for the Spurs when I watch his highlights and Tankathon had him projected at 28th overall earlier this week, before the zero point performance. I'll be watching this guy closely from here on out.

Not a stiff UyWD1KKw9Ew

Perhaps stiff is too strong of a word. Insufficient lateral speed is more like it. The main point is that he can’t play next to Wemby because he won’t be able to defend the midgets at PF that most teams will roll out. If you think teams are destroying us from 3 right now, it would be worse with Wolf at PF. I mean we’ve seen spurts of it with Collins next to Wemby, and it doesn’t look good.

[Thomas82]

whos the best defensive bigs in this draft.Swear we turn to shit completely once we sit victor.A big who defends and
rebounds is needed bad.Bassey and collins aint it.

I would like us to get Asa Newell myself.

[SpursBills]

I get the high hit rate. I just personally believe the team is not in a position to play it safe by picking a player of that archetype. They need players who can ignite an offense, and less so players who rely on other guys to generate it for them. That’s my opinion. Vassell, for example, is not showing very well that he can be relied upon to get a bucket when it’s needed most. We need a guy who can successfully ISO and score or make a play for others. I want the Spurs to go for a hail mary with all their picks.

i forgot about Tre. I inserted him in my tier 4 (could also be tier 3)

Agree with this for sure my dude. With that in mind, sell me on Rasheer Fleming in your top 4.

You've almost definitely seen more of him than I have - I've only seen a few highlights here and there, but I see a very athletic physically imposing 3 and D forward with outstanding measurements who mixes some straight line drives to the basket against a bent defense with spot up 3s and is a strong finisher as a roll man. That's an extremely valuable player if the 3 translates, but with a career FT% < 70 and a single year of good 3 point shooting for a young-for-his-class junior, it's a risky bet to make. His numbers suggest minimal passing and playmaking acumen (correct me if I'm wrong).

I'm probably going to get roasted for this, but if your priority is a guy who can successfully iso and playmake for others with a hail mary, isn't the correct play at the forward position actually CMB, who we have plenty of evidence of scoring in the low post against set defenses (i.e. taking it to #1 Auburn and specifically Johnni Broome repeatedly) with better passing acumen? Yea, it's true his shooting is less likely to translate, but he's one of the top guys in the draft with regards to hand eye coordination and touch both around the rim and in the midrange, so it's not as unlikely as, say, Sochan.

We are probably going to go back and forth on these two guys for the rest of the season unless one of them either really takes off or drops off, so curious to get your thoughts here.

[objective]

Just started looking at players with the start of the new year and I'm all aboard the DANNY WOLF train. Choo-choo!

He's going to be riding up boards and I'm expecting lottery by draft night.

#1 not a stiff, nimble feet, just a lot like Sengun who the Spurs passed on for a slow ass guard wearing cement shoes.

#2. Smart and can legit pass, cut, and move the ball. Still too many morons on the team who can never figure out that they should pass to Wemby when he's open.

3. Defensive rebounding, we will know Wemby needs help

4. Can post and operate. With all the attention Wemby pulls Wolf will feast

5. Can shoot some, should be a legit average NBA shooting big. Not a specialist but his shot looks good to me and much better than Sengun

6. Does get some blocks, and isn't a total disaster there like Joffrey

I think he's the ideal guy next to Wemby. Can get Wemby the ball. Smart player who passes, posts, cuts and is a 3 point threat. Defensive rebounder.

He wouldn't be replacing Sochan, he'd be replacing Barnes. Sochan doesn't guard power forwards, Barnes does. Sochan also can't shoot, is zero threat with the ball, and proved over and over again he isn't capable of getting Wemby the ball.

If the Spurs aren't a top 4 lotto team I say take Wolf. 9, 10, 11, whatever.

[rascal]

No more chance for Egor Demin??

Utah will draft him if they miss on Flagg.

[pad300]

A question, assuming that the CHA pick doesn't convey, it turns into 2 2nd round picks; are those SRPs 25 & 26 or 26 & 27?

[mo7888]

A question, assuming that the CHA pick doesn't convey, it turns into 2 2nd round picks; are those SRPs 25 & 26 or 26 & 27?

26 and 27

[Kurik]

I’m still all in on Rasheer Fleming, I think he could step into Barnes role very easily with additional rebounding and provide a lot of synergy with Wemby.


Per Synergy, Fleming ranks in the 96th percentile in overall points per possession (PPP), the 88th percentile in transition, the 93rd percentile as the roll man, the 100th percentile on cuts, the 92nd percentile on all jumpers, the 82nd percentile shooting off the catch, and the 90th percentile scoring at the rim. That is bonkers levels of efficiency. If you look closely, there’s a common theme among all of those numbers and play/shot types. All of them are in a play-finishing role.

[mo7888]

I’m still all in on Rasheer Fleming, I think he could step into Barnes role very easily with additional rebounding and provide a lot of synergy with Wemby.

He's on my list too. Tankathon has him at #27 on their board. I think I'd have him around #15 overall. If I believed in his outside shot, I'd have him much higher though. With his length, athleticism, and two way game I'd probably have him top 5 if I thought he could maintain that 40% level from deep that he's put up this year.

[CGD]

Man that Lithuanian kid at Illinois looks really really good. He’s gotta be top 5 right?

[objective]

I like both Fleming and Wolf.

I'm sure something like the following has been posted in this thread before and looking at tankathon ages jogged my memory, but I also think people might overreact to them being juniors when age-wise it's not that bad.

Derik Queen is getting hyped as a too 10 guy and he's old as hell for a freshman. 20.5 on draft night. He's only 5 months younger than Fleming and 7 months or so younger than Wolf. Edgecombe and Kneuppel will be a month shy of 20 9n draft night coming off their freshman seasons.

[mo7888]

Man that Lithuanian kid at Illinois looks really really good. He’s gotta be top 5 right?

I think he's to 5 on everyone's board. It'll take a ton of luck to get him.

[BatManu20]

Man that Lithuanian kid at Illinois looks really really good. He’s gotta be top 5 right?

Yea he's projected top-5 right now. I worry about his defense and lack of overall athleticism, and he needs to cut down on the turnovers (3.5/per game), but he's one of the best, most polished Offensive players in this draft and can legitimately play either Guard position. Much more of a natural PG than Castle is. Really skilled player with an advanced feel for the game for an 18 year-old (not surprising for a Euro). Good size at 6'6 200 lbs. as well.

Great shooter (39% from 3 on 5 attempts/per) but also likes to get downhill and attack the basket. Solid finisher in the paint (though he still needs to improve in this regard, as most young players do) but also unselfish and prefers to kick it out to the open man. Really good passer. He's both a legitimate scorer and a playmaker. He and Wemby would form a deadly PnR game together. Spurs would be lucky to have him tbh.

1882662886344110313

1877389620465512566

[Mr. Body]

Jakucionas is likely the guy we'd want in this draft. Only just 'okay' athleticism, but his DPM is good and he puts in effort. Not the best handles and has TO problems right now, but that can be improved. Good shooter, but what impresses me most is how he places the ball with his passes. I don't think he's a star, but I'm not sure anyone in this draft is. Mostly he fills a major role going forward.

[Dejounte]

The one guy (aside from Fleming) I keep coming back to is Derik Queen. The kid plays beautiful basketball. I may raise him a tier or two.

p.s. i’ll reply back to your question later SpursBills (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=18470) You should check out Queen. If you like CMB, you’ll gain great appreciation for him.

[scott]

Alright you guys have got my interest in Fleming piqued. Hit up the thread with your best video scouting reports of him

[Mr. Body]

Watched MD vs IL last night and would be great with a Jakucionas/Queen draft. Queen is a big dude with flashes of brilliance. Not a shot blocker and he's struggled a bit against conference play. Last night Illinois had no size to compete. You'd be strictly drafting mostly a bench guy.

[Kurik]

Alright you guys have got my interest in Fleming piqued. Hit up the thread with your best video scouting reports of him

Couldn’t find any detailed breakdowns but here’s a more recent highlight package that has a section for scoring and defense.


https://youtu.be/wmKx6I5akTg?si=PQGHZCvdC6UlWQPo

[DAF86]

Jakucionas is likely the guy we'd want in this draft. Only just 'okay' athleticism, but his DPM is good and he puts in effort. Not the best handles and has TO problems right now, but that can be improved. Good shooter, but what impresses me most is how he places the ball with his passes. I don't think he's a star, but I'm not sure anyone in this draft is. Mostly he fills a major role going forward.

What? You don't think Cooper Flagg will be a star? :lol

[rascal]

Couldn’t find any detailed breakdowns but here’s a more recent highlight package that has a section for scoring and defense.


https://youtu.be/wmKx6I5akTg?si=PQGHZCvdC6UlWQPo

More athletic than Sochan. He has better form and a quicker release on his shot. Move Sochan to the bench and start Fleming.

[Mr. Body]

What? You don't think Cooper Flagg will be a star? :lol

He could be. I've said elsewhere, he seems like a very talented toolsy player any team could use but no, I'm not sure he's a franchise maker. He and Harper have elements and could be though.

[Biggems]

We are not a good rebounding team TBH. What about Johni Broome from Auburn. He is also a good shot blocker. He also has 3pt range, though he only shoots about 30%. I have watched a few of his games and I think he could be a solid addition to our bigs rotation. He is a poor FT shooter. Another issue is his age. He is already 22. Broome is a late first, early second prospect.

I prefer Fleming to Queen. Queen is very inconsistent. He may have some nice upside, but I am tired of inconsistent basketball. The Spurs have enough inconsistent players already.

[Kurik]

We are not a good rebounding team TBH. What about Johni Broome from Auburn. He is also a good shot blocker. He also has 3pt range, though he only shoots about 30%. I have watched a few of his games and I think he could be a solid addition to our bigs rotation. He is a poor FT shooter. Another issue is his age. He is already 22. Broome is a late first, early second prospect.

I prefer Fleming to Queen. Queen is very inconsistent. He may have some nice upside, but I am tired of inconsistent basketball. The Spurs have enough inconsistent players already.

I like Broome as a trade down or if he falls to a SRP. I think in the top 20 though I’d rather pick Fleming, Newell, or Murray Boyles.

[scott]

We are not a good rebounding team TBH. What about Johni Broome from Auburn. He is also a good shot blocker. He also has 3pt range, though he only shoots about 30%. I have watched a few of his games and I think he could be a solid addition to our bigs rotation. He is a poor FT shooter. Another issue is his age. He is already 22. Broome is a late first, early second prospect.

I prefer Fleming to Queen. Queen is very inconsistent. He may have some nice upside, but I am tired of inconsistent basketball. The Spurs have enough inconsistent players already.

This may come as a bit of a surprise, but the Spurs are actually 6th in the league in Rebound Chance % at 58.1%, and 3rd in the league in Adjusted Rebound Chance % at 63.2%. Adjusted Reb Chance % is a better metric, because it factors in all of the opportunities a player has for a rebound but let's a teammate grab it.

Where we are not good, however, is Contested Reb %, where we are 20th in the league at only 31.7% (best in the league, if you are wondering, is 36.1%).

With all of that said, I'd still love for us to add some rebounding strength and become dominant in this area.

[BackHome]

We are not a good rebounding team TBH. What about Johni Broome from Auburn. He is also a good shot blocker. He also has 3pt range, though he only shoots about 30%. I have watched a few of his games and I think he could be a solid addition to our bigs rotation. He is a poor FT shooter. Another issue is his age. He is already 22. Broome is a late first, early second prospect.

I prefer Fleming to Queen. Queen is very inconsistent. He may have some nice upside, but I am tired of inconsistent basketball. The Spurs have enough inconsistent players already.

I have seen some reviews of Broome that always mention “Attitude Issues” not sure what happened but where there is smoke there is fire?

[CGD]

The one guy (aside from Fleming) I keep coming back to is Derik Queen. The kid plays beautiful basketball. I may raise him a tier or two.

p.s. i’ll reply back to your question later SpursBills (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=18470) You should check out Queen. If you like CMB, you’ll gain great appreciation for him.

I can’t get there with Queen. Heard a comp to OSU’s Sullenger and that gave me a lot of pause. Terrific college post player that couldn’t find a reliable home in the NBA.

[Guru of Nothing]

Danny Wolf and Michigan at Purdue on Fox at 7:00 for you channel surfing scouts.

[CorrectCrusader]

He could be. I've said elsewhere, he seems like a very talented toolsy player any team could use but no, I'm not sure he's a franchise maker. He and Harper have elements and could be though.

You're right that cooper isn't a bonafide "franchise" player but I think he could be a low tier one.
Having him on the spurs with Wemby would just be... man..

[pad300]

If we're looking at C's, Thomas Sorber (Georgetown) should get an eyeball.

[Guru of Nothing]

Danny Wolf and Michigan at Purdue on Fox at 7:00 for you channel surfing scouts.

0-5 from three. The entire team stunk, so there's that.

Either he starts posting some attaboys or his stock will sink back into the second round.

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyWD1KKw9Ew

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhOKYxmXbrE

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eZUm5t8Oco

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8TmyNCH4iI

[SpursBills]

The one guy (aside from Fleming) I keep coming back to is Derik Queen. The kid plays beautiful basketball. I may raise him a tier or two.

p.s. i’ll reply back to your question later SpursBills (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=18470) You should check out Queen. If you like CMB, you’ll gain great appreciation for him.

Yup, Queen is awesome to watch - bigs who can score inside and pass well are always really fun. Looks like he's carrying a little bit of fat on him kind of like college Naz Reid - wonder if his game can really hit another level if he ever underwent a similar body transformation

In spite of that, I wonder if I've overcorrected recently by undervaluing athleticism and physical characteristics - this year I'm trying to balance both. Functional athleticism and high level movement scaled to position combined with productivity scaled to age. +stocks, OREB%, AST%, BPM, and "wow" plays on film to try and find guys with two way star potential.

As of right now, that's Coop, VJ, and CMB

[heyheymymy]

#2 Duke @ Wake right now on ESPN

WF got hot and are giving Duke some trouble

[south side spur]

https://youtu.be/lqRDe2r7ZuE?feature=shared

[Truckules]

We are not a good rebounding team TBH. What about Johni Broome from Auburn.

I agree that the Spurs have a rebounding problem, but the rebounding problem is not going to be fixed by adding another big. The problem is that the players 1-3 on this team can't/don't rebound. Paul, Barnes, Champ, Castle, Vassell, and Jones are all negative rebounders for their position. Some of that is probably the Wemby factor (let Wemby get it), but most of them weren't good rebounders even when Wemby wasn't on the team. This team needs to prioritize guards and wings who rebound to fix the problem, but the team has other needs that might take priority.

[Truckules]

Can someone explain the hype around Fleming for me? Did Dejounte push him and now a narrative has taken over that the Spurs are going to be idiots if they don't take him with a top 10 pick? Personally, I have him in the 20s but having him top 5 is absolutely insane.

[Kurik]

Can someone explain the hype around Fleming for me? Did Dejounte push him and now a narrative has taken over that the Spurs are going to be idiots if they don't take him with a top 10 pick? Personally, I have him in the 20s but having him top 5 is absolutely insane.

There’s a few of us Fleming fans but I haven’t heard of anyone saying they would pick him with a top 5-10 pick. I don’t think it’s a reach to pick him between 10-20 as there’s nothing for sure in that range.

[Dejounte]

Can someone explain the hype around Fleming for me? Did Dejounte push him and now a narrative has taken over that the Spurs are going to be idiots if they don't take him with a top 10 pick? Personally, I have him in the 20s but having him top 5 is absolutely insane.

No one is calling other people idiots for not having Fleming in their top 10. Fleming will be projected in the teens come draft time, assuming he keeps up his current play. There’s a chance OKC takes him in the top 10. His combination of defense and size can be found nowhere if you look up and down the draft. His long wingspan and anticipation disrupts passing lanes like few before him. Personally, that upside has him mocked as high as 3rd. Obviously I wouldn’t take Flagg or Harper over him. But Kasparas? A guy where as good as he is, people still have questions if he could live up to a 3rd pick - a franchise player? Yeah, a player who has elite upside on defense deserves to be in the same conversation as that guy. Not many college players are blowing away their competition that a guy with clear upside can’t be talked about in the same breath.

[Dejounte]

I’ve been watching Saraf more and more and I think he’s in the same league as the best initiators of this draft. His pacing is almost always under control, his handle is creative, but probably the main thing that sets him apart are his pull up mid range jumpers.

I like players with diversified offenses, and it’s rare as heck to find players who aren’t strictly thinking, “i’m going to shoot a three or try to get a layup”. When the game is on the line, you want players who can mix it up. A player who has a myriad of ways to score will always have a leg up over others.

The way Ben weaves his way with the ball through and in and out of an opposing defense, always knowing where his defender is— whether it’s behind him, on his left side, right side, etc. is *chef’s kiss*

Saraf is consistently the guy I’d pick with our second first round pick if he’s there.

[Kurik]

Jase Richardson was the best player in a game against Bailey and Harper.


https://youtu.be/n9aw_Ze0RGg?si=8RWl42iuCjYB_I8f

[bluebellmaniac]

This would be a good draft:

https://photos.app.goo.gl/YNWgfJuKKiuGbBXx7

[ffadicted]

A question, assuming that the CHA pick doesn't convey, it turns into 2 2nd round picks; are those SRPs 25 & 26 or 26 & 27?

Does someone just have a summary of these outcomes for each pick? I can only really find the baseline info

[Russ]

Does someone just have a summary of these outcomes for each pick? I can only really find the baseline info

https://airalamo.com/san-antonio-spurs-draft-picks-2025-2026-through-2031-full-list

[onechance87]

No one is calling other people idiots for not having Fleming in their top 10. Fleming will be projected in the teens come draft time, assuming he keeps up his current play. There’s a chance OKC takes him in the top 10. His combination of defense and size can be found nowhere if you look up and down the draft. His long wingspan and anticipation disrupts passing lanes like few before him. Personally, that upside has him mocked as high as 3rd. Obviously I wouldn’t take Flagg or Harper over him. But Kasparas? A guy where as good as he is, people still have questions if he could live up to a 3rd pick - a franchise player? Yeah, a player who has elite upside on defense deserves to be in the same conversation as that guy. Not many college players are blowing away their competition that a guy with clear upside can’t be talked about in the same breath.

so charles bassey with maybe a outside shot it looks to me.

[Mr. Body]

https://airalamo.com/san-antonio-spurs-draft-picks-2025-2026-through-2031-full-list

For the entire league:

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

[ffadicted]

Thanks lads!

[Dejounte]

so charles bassey with maybe a outside shot it looks to me.

Nope, Bassey doesn’t make nearly the same amount of defensive plays beyond 3 ft away from the basket. Fleming excels at being disruptive against both ball handlers and finishers alike. Bassey is most effective defensively near the rim, and that’s it.

[Bruno]

A player you haven't heard of and who will be likely drafted in the first round is french player Joan Beringer. He is currently #24 on Givony's big board.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sh7L22Kd6N4

The main thing about him is that he has played basketball for 3 and a half years. He barely knows how to play but he is true physical specimen (6'10/6'11" barefoot with a 7'4" wingspan and a great mobility/explosiveness) and is improving quickly.
Teams with multiple first round picks like OKC and Nets will surely use one of them on him. A very high risk and reward prospect.

[Truckules]

No one is calling other people idiots for not having Fleming in their top 10. Fleming will be projected in the teens come draft time, assuming he keeps up his current play. There’s a chance OKC takes him in the top 10. His combination of defense and size can be found nowhere if you look up and down the draft. His long wingspan and anticipation disrupts passing lanes like few before him. Personally, that upside has him mocked as high as 3rd. Obviously I wouldn’t take Flagg or Harper over him. But Kasparas? A guy where as good as he is, people still have questions if he could live up to a 3rd pick - a franchise player? Yeah, a player who has elite upside on defense deserves to be in the same conversation as that guy. Not many college players are blowing away their competition that a guy with clear upside can’t be talked about in the same breath.

I think you are severely overrating him. Fleming is not going to be projected in the teens by any reputable analyst, and there is zero chance OKC takes him in the top 10 in this draft.

On defense, he 100% has good physical tools that you mention, and I think he's definitely able to defend traditional big men and provide solid rim protection. However, I think you're overrating his ability to defend on the perimeter. His footwork needs A LOT of work. He's downright bad at closeouts and fighting over screens as a result. He's also struggled with fouling too much. His perimeter defense is based around his physical tools rather than skill which is not going to be enough in the NBA. He's not ready to defend NBA 3s or 4s full-time. He has the tools to be a great defender, but he's not one yet.

On offense, he's been great as a play finisher but hasn't shown many flashes of being a creator. College basketball is filled with players who are efficient in a more limited role that struggle to translate that efficiency to the NBA, and that's what I think he is. He's definitely improved his shooting, but I see him as an average shooter in the NBA. He's a solid driver and finisher inside, but it's not anything world changing.

What's his calling card? What can he do better than half of the players already in the league? He's going to need quite a bit of time in the G-League, and that's not something the Spurs need right now.

[CorrectCrusader]

I want Bailey so bad.. He has the highest ceiling in the draft by far.

[Mr. Body]

A player you haven't heard of and who will be likely drafted in the first round is french player Joan Beringer. He is currently #24 on Givony's big board.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sh7L22Kd6N4

The main thing about him is that he has played basketball for 3 and a half years. He barely knows how to play but he is true physical specimen (6'10/6'11" barefoot with a 7'4" wingspan and a great mobility/explosiveness) and is improving quickly.
Teams with multiple first round picks like OKC and Nets will surely use one of them on him. A very high risk and reward prospect.

We already have Tidjane Saluan at home. Oh, wait.