2024 NBA Draft Thread

[baseline bum]

For this reason, in many respects (and we've discussed this before) I'd rather have #5 and #8 than #1 and #7. The latter is going to be more expensive, but more importantly it might force you into taking a prospect you don't really like that much (Sarr, Risacher, Topic) just because you're in that range (note: I have no idea who the Spurs actually like of course, I'm just not a huge fan of those three in particular, personally. I'd rather have Dilly + Matas than Sarr + Collier, for example).

If you want Dilly and Matas good luck at #5 and #8

[baseline bum]

I'm the same. I don't really want a top three pick because they're going to be hella expensive role players at best.

Then trade it. Don't get the complaints about rookie contracts. At #1 Victor's final year of his rookie contract is like $16.9 million. You're worried about spending that for a prospect but don't give a shit about Zollins making $17 million?

[baseline bum]

For all the fans of Risacher, Topic, Dilllingham, Matas, and Sarr here, I'm going to laugh when the Spurs end up getting a top 3 draft pick and take Ron Holland as the entire board melts down

Entire board should melt down if they pick that scrub

[SpursBills]

Entire board should melt down if they pick that scrub

I'm not a fan of G league ignite prospects in general but front office has shown a tendency to pick against grain for better or for worse in the past so I wouldn't be surprised. See: Primo, Samanic, Livio Jean Charles, Derrick White

[Dejounte]

Primo would go number 1 in this draft. That’s how bad the top of the draft is.

[Ariel]

This again?

Risacher is definitely the cleanest fit, but it's not inconceivable they could prefer Dillingham to Ivey and shop the latter while he still probably retains most of the sheen he had.

Dillingham could easily play with Ball the same way Rozier III did by being able to cross match defensively and interchange offensively.
Yes Detroit could take him and move Ivey or Charlotte could take him and go forward with a less than ideal pairing with Lamelo, but those scenarios entail their own challenges (like Detroit getting back fair value for Ivey and Weaver losing his job for tripping over the same stone for the umpteenth time, or Charlotte laying its foundation around the wildest offensive and worst defensive backcourt in the league) to the point where the gap in Dillingham's favor would have to be pretty large for those teams to take him over other better fitting prospects. So yes, it isn't inconceivable (for starters, we don't even know who is picking where) but he's the one player in the top 5/6 where it's easier to see him falling from where his talent level would indicate, rather than rising.

[Chinook]

There is no BPA. That's what I keep saying. There is not a point in the first eight picks where a person could legitimately say one player is the pick over any other.

What I'm saying is this is wrong, extremely wrong. These eight players will not all be the same. BPA is not a universal concept where everyone agrees who the best player is. I don't care who the media, ST or even I think is the best player. I care that the Spurs have their idea and go with it and not think like you're suggesting that the draft is flat. No drafts are ever flat. They might be ambiguous, but they aren't flat.

I'll say this again, and hopefully people will understand even if they disagree: The Spurs should not worry about their current roster needs when drafting with their first and hopefully Toronto's this summer. I mean that positionally as well as in terms of skill-set. Things like shooting, passing and defense are factors that go into judging a player, but it shouldn't matter if the Spurs currently lack some of those qualities. They need to come out if the lottery with the most talent they can for the hand they're dealt. That talent doesn't have to be a consensus selection, and it doesn't have to be fully ready for the NBA. But it needs to be there. Get the talent around Victor and then see how it comes together. Don't pass on that talent (as perceived by the front office) in an effort to create a winning roster around Wemby for 2024-2025.

[TD 21]

Yes Detroit could take him and move Ivey or Charlotte could take him and go forward with a less than ideal pairing with Lamelo, but those scenarios entail their own challenges (like Detroit getting back fair value for Ivey and Weaver losing his job for tripping over the same stone for the umpteenth time, or Charlotte laying its foundation around the wildest offensive and worst defensive backcourt in the league) to the point where the gap in Dillingham's favor would have to be pretty large for those teams to take Dillingham over other better fitting prospects. So yes, it isn't inconceivable since, for starters, we don't even know who is picking where, but he's the one player in the top 5/6 where it's easier to see him falling from where his talent level would indicate, rather than rising.

I don't disagree. My point is these are the worst teams in the league, mostly lacking star or potential star power in a draft also projected to lack it.

If they think Dillingham, for example, has it, I doubt they'd hesitate to pull the trigger (especially if they slide a few spots).

Here's another scenario: The Craptors 1st conveys, Dillingham is available at the slot and the Pistons prefer him to Ivey and the Spur prefer Ivey to the available guards.


They need to come out if the lottery with the most talent they can for the hand they're dealt. That talent doesn't have to be a consensus selection, and it doesn't have to be fully ready for the NBA. But it needs to be there. Get the talent around Victor and then see how it comes together. Don't pass on that talent (as perceived by the front office) in an effort to create a winning roster around Wemby for 2024-2025.

Well yeah, if they think one prospect is clearly superior to the rest, of course they should select them. If not though, then fit should absolutely play a bigger role.

[Mr. Body]

Then trade it. Don't get the complaints about rookie contracts. At #1 Victor's final year of his rookie contract is like $16.9 million. You're worried about spending that for a prospect but don't give a shit about Zollins making $17 million?

I don't think there's going to be much interest in the top picks this year.

[Mr. Body]

Primo would go number 1 in this draft. That’s how bad the top of the draft is.

No.

[Dejounte]

No.

Yes.

[Mr. Body]

If you want Dilly and Matas good luck at #5 and #8

After combines and workouts, I see Buzelis going in the top 4. Dillingham will be closer to the middle or later lottery. This board loves Dillingham - I do, obviously - but this is definitely not shared widely. He's all over the place, but we will probably, I think, see Sarr-Risacher-Williams go before him, Buzelis going before him, probably Topic. After that, maybe Sheppard, and others.

[Chinook]

Well yeah, if they think one prospect is clearly superior to the rest, of course they should select them. If not though, then fit should absolutely play a bigger role.

For a team that lacks talent like the Spurs and who is setting itself up to make a trade within the next couple of seasons, fit's pretty open. A lot of people seem worried about drafting a guy with weaknesses shared by current Spurs because it may lead to the team not improving as much next year as they'd like. In I think that concern is short-sighted. Wemby is pluripotent enough to fit with anyone, Vassell's archetype doesn't really place restrictions on the lineup around him, and no one else is good enough to worry about. You don't pass up on a guy because Jones, Sochan and Collins aren't good shooters or Johnson and Branham struggle defensively. The Spurs can replace all those guys. If the talent is extremely close, then that's one thing. But the gap doesn't have to be all that large for me to pick talent at this stage.

[baseline bum]

After combines and workouts, I see Buzelis going in the top 4. Dillingham will be closer to the middle or later lottery. This board loves Dillingham - I do, obviously - but this is definitely not shared widely. He's all over the place, but we will probably, I think, see Sarr-Risacher-Williams go before him, Buzelis going before him, probably Topic. After that, maybe Sheppard, and others.

Dillingham getting picked #7 to #13 after a rock solid season in this weak draft where literally everyone other than Risacher who was supposed to be at the top has underwhelmed? Not a chance unless he blows out his knee or something. Maybe in a perfect storm of lottery order I could see him #6 I guess.

[baseline bum]

I'm not a fan of G league ignite prospects in general but front office has shown a tendency to pick against grain for better or for worse in the past so I wouldn't be surprised. See: Primo, Samanic, Livio Jean Charles, Derrick White

Overrating Holland wouldn't be going against the grain considering he came into this season hyped to be a top candidate for the #1 pick

[TD 21]

For a team that lacks talent like the Spurs and who is setting itself up to make a trade within the next couple of seasons, fit's pretty open. A lot of people seem worried about drafting a guy with weaknesses shared by current Spurs because it may lead to the team not improving as much next year as they'd like. In I think that concern is short-sighted. Wemby is pluripotent enough to fit with anyone, Vassell's archetype doesn't really place restrictions on the lineup around him, and no one else is good enough to worry about. You don't pass up on a guy because Jones, Sochan and Collins aren't good shooters or Johnson and Branham struggle defensively. The Spurs can replace all those guys. If the talent is extremely close, then that's one thing. But the gap doesn't have to be all that large for me to pick talent at this stage.

I mostly agree, but the thing with shooting and defense is, they're universal. Wembanyama and Vassell will need those things around them the same way anyone would.

I wouldn't pass on most of these players because of fit with the rest, I'd do so because I see them having a hard time fitting on a contending team.

[baseline bum]

I wish Sheppard had a little more size. He looks like such a small 6'3" to be a combo guard instead of a straight point. God damn his three point stroke is sweet though.

[heyheymymy]

Dillingham already has 2 fouls

[Mr. Body]

Dillingham already has 2 fouls

He fouls a lot.

[heyheymymy]

Knecht 10
Rest of team 8

[onechance87]

sheppard a shooter

[baseline bum]

Knecht 10
Rest of team 8

Damn is dude singlehandedly dragging them to a four seed? Let my dog outside and dude put up like 7 points in the time I was gone.

[BackHome]

Knecht is legit - Sheppard has a beautiful shoot - Reeves playing really good

[alfahdlan]

Whew

[Splits]

If you want to pick a 1 seed to get dropped in your bracket before the Sweet 16, it is Tennessee.

[alfahdlan]

Legit 3P shooter

[KobesAchilles]

Chinook is really enamored with that USC guy who can’t shoot, can’t finish left, and turns the ball over all the time :lol
Collier isn’t going to be good.

[baseline bum]

How the hell is Kentucky not just doubling Knecht even off the ball?

[BackHome]

If I am getting Raptors pick I am very cool if they use it to pick Knecht

[alfahdlan]

Another 3

[heyheymymy]

Reed Sheppard 26 points 9/13 and 7/9 from 3

[alfahdlan]

Without.a.doubt

[baseline bum]

JFC Knecht
JFC Sheppard

[heyheymymy]

Kentucky does not look like it is playing a +11 ranked team on their home court

[heyheymymy]

Sheppard + Knecht in the 24 draft?

SEC shooter starter pack

[heyheymymy]

Costly TO by Reed on the vols pressure

Don't want to get into intentional fouls shennangins

[BackHome]

If we do pick Topic with our first pick who do you want him passing to for the open 3 - Knecht or Sheppard?

[Mr. Body]

How the hell is Kentucky not just doubling Knecht even off the ball?

They're so badly coached and individually not smart defenders. He should have someone attached to him at all times. Players should be aware of him at all times. They're not.

[heyheymymy]

Shit UTK could drag this game out

[baseline bum]

Damn what is Sheppard's wingspan to get that block?

[heyheymymy]

Nice trapping and pressure from vols

UTK with a 8-0 run over :29

[Kurik]

Dillingham with some really bad decisions in this game. Sheppard all day if it comes down to one of them.

[Mr. Body]

Kentucky with all these balhandlers can't handle a press.

[heyheymymy]

UK Wildcats 3 TOs in :34

[BackHome]

Damn this is a good game

[Mr. Body]

Sheppard goes top 6 or so, I think.

This game shows some problems with Dillingham. Issues with game management and understanding the bigger picture.

[Kurik]

Damn what is Sheppard's wingspan to get that block?

I believe his wingspan is just 6’3, it’s all timing on his blocks.

[alfahdlan]

70%3P 7 of 10

[SpursBills]

If the rockets get the opportunity I don’t see how they can pass on Sheppard

[Splits]

how da fuck is Jakobe Walter even on the first round big board? dude sucks ass

[alfahdlan]

Sheppard + Knecht in the 24 draft?

SEC shooter starter pack

Can't complain its a weak draft anyway. These 2 give shooting/offense and they are not negative on defense.

[baseline bum]

how da fuck is Jakobe Walter even on the first round big board? dude sucks ass

Don't get it at all. He's not big. He's not fast. He's not that athletic. He doesn't have any court vision. He doesn't have that good a handle. He can't shoot. About all he does is miss a lot of threes. And yet he's been like #8 in every mock for months.

[Mr. Body]

Can't complain its a weak draft anyway. These 2 give shooting/offense and they are not negative on defense.

Unfortunately both Knecht and Sheppard are not good defenders.

[Splits]

Don't get it at all. He's not big. He's not fast. He's not that athletic. He doesn't have any court vision. He doesn't have that good a handle. He can't shoot. About all he does is miss a lot of threes. And yet he's been like #8 in every mock for months.

So perfect pick for B. Wrong at the TOR 8 slot.

[alfahdlan]

Unfortunately both Knecht and Sheppard are not good defenders.

Who is? Aye said not negative. Meaning not so bad defensive win share or DBPM

[exstatic]

Chinook is really enamored with that USC guy who can’t shoot, can’t finish left, and turns the ball over all the time :lol
Collier isn’t going to be good.

He’s not a PG,he's a 6’3” downhill scorer who is a scattergun passer and can’t shoot.

[TD 21]

Not saying Sheppard is Curry redux, but it's a lot of the same nonsense (measurables, position and let's face it the fact that they both looked about 12) that is going to probably lead to him going lower than he should.

Hopefully the Spurs are the ones who recognize this and don't make the mistake others will.

[BatManu20]

Filipowski appears to have some Grayson Allen in him.

1766618427567829137

[Mr. Body]

Duke and Carolina take this shit way too seriously. Duke players try to hurt Carolina players. Carolina runs fake classes to pass their idiot players.

[duncan2150]

Reed Sheppard 26 points 9/13 and 7/9 from 3

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1766619048719143216

[onechance87]

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1766619048719143216

would be a upgrade over tre and branham...

[Atl Spur]

That damn Knecht is the real deal…..I love his skill of course but his will to win is elite!

[objective]

Not saying Sheppard is Curry redux, but it's a lot of the same nonsense (measurables, position and let's face it the fact that they both looked about 12) that is going to probably lead to him going lower than he should.

Hopefully the Spurs are the ones who recognize this and don't make the mistake others will.

Well, at the time the Spurs didn't recognize Curry's talents. RC called Jack McClinton the best shooter in the draft. He did shoot better from 3 their draft year

Now I don't worry about that because Wright is the GM now, hopefully RC leaves him alone

[Mr. Body]

Well, at the time the Spurs didn't recognize Curry's talents. RC called Jack McClinton the best shooter in the draft. He did shoot better from 3 their draft year

Now I don't worry about that because Wright is the GM now, hopefully RC leaves him alone

Geez, why didn't the Spurs draft Curry in the late second round instead of McClinton?

[The Truth #6]

BPA seems completely subjective like everything else. I agree with the idea in theory for a young team needing talent. But it's not like there's a universal standard everyone is using to evaluate these players. Finding the BPA is a composite of many factors and the Spurs FO prioritize character highly where other teams don't as much. Anyway. It's a slippery slope. I imagine the discussions on these prospects will be especially hard.

[sfernald]

Wow, you can really see how challenging this draft is going to be just by how many diverse takes there are on this thread. I have almost no idea who would be best for the spurs possible two picks right now and I usually have favorites at this point. I just keep thinking, shooting. Let’s keep it simple and surround Wemby with shooters. He seems talented enough that he can eventually be the Jokic / LeBron center of the universe offensively. He’s already top 5 in the league defensively. I say fuck it just give him the keys to the offense and run every single halfcourt play right through him. It might take him two years to master it but when he does he’ll be a championship winning machine.

[DAF86]

Unfortunately both Knecht and Sheppard are not good defenders.

Sheppard is definitely a good defender. How that defense will translate to the NBA is a different story.

[Mr. Body]

Sheppard is definitely a good defender. How that defense will translate to the NBA is a different story.

He has great hands and can make big plays as a team defender, but overall he's pretty limited in my mind, even in college. He's not a shut-down defender by any means. His blocks for position and steals are excellent, though.

[scott]

Of course the Spurs are going to draft BPA, per however they set their board. What Chinook (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=37557) is saying shouldn't be controversial or ground breaking by any means. That's what they've always done. I doubt the team would ever admit to taking a player they have rated lower on their board in the first round because it fits a need, unless someone can correct me? Some of the factors they use to set their board, however, aren't always the ones we, or other teams, would use... but until such time as someone else is making the decisions, that's what they'll do.

And of course, none of our opinions matter, but that doesn't mean we can't share and discuss them here, on this discussion board.

[Chinook]

Chinook is really enamored with that USC guy who can’t shoot, can’t finish left, and turns the ball over all the time :lol
Collier isn’t going to be good.

Collier is whatever. He's going to either be good or he won't. I'm not married to any pick, just like every year. We don't get to vote on who the Spurs will take, so I don't see a reason to worry too much about it. I just think the discussion turning away from Collier, Topic, Sarr and Buzelis should be pushed back against. I think some of the reasoning behind that side has some flaws. Because there are zero consequences to our discussions, I am taking the opportunity to speak for that side. I have zero issues with the Spurs taking Dillingham, Risacher, Sheppard or anyone else. I just hope they're able to snag two guys they really like, even if it's some off-the-walls shit like Castle and Dunn. It doesn't have to line up with any expectations I have -- it just needs to work.

[Mr. Body]

That's not really what BPA means. I guess its all semantics, but there's a lot of confusion or fundamental disagreement of what's being talked about.

This is a draft where there are no 'best player available' at any selection through pick 10 or so. You cannot objectively rank them, you can only subjectively rank them. Of course the team will have tiers of who they want. Those will be pretty different than other teams. Last year, there was a clear BPA at spot 1, two BPAs at 2-3, and two more BPAs with the Thompson twins. No such thing exists this year.

Also, there is no sense in picking a position that you don't need when there's another player that fulfills a need within the same tier. Fit is as important as anything and 1) no, there is no clear BPA as we tick down the draft in the lottery and 2) fit is important. Selecting some dumbfuck or asshole because he's 'BPA' is nonsensical, as is, say, picking a shooting guard when there are small forwards available.

So, on every level of what we can mean by BPA, I disagree.

[scott]

That's not really what BPA means. I guess its all semantics, but there's a lot of confusion or fundamental disagreement of what's being talked about.

This is a draft where there are no 'best player available' at any selection through pick 10 or so. You cannot objectively rank them, you can only subjectively rank them. Of course the team will have tiers of who they want. Those will be pretty different than other teams. Last year, there was a clear BPA at spot 1, two BPAs at 2-3, and two more BPAs with the Thompson twins. No such thing exists this year.

Also, there is no sense in picking a position that you don't need when there's another player that fulfills a need within the same tier. Fit is as important as anything and 1) no, there is no clear BPA as we tick down the draft in the lottery and 2) fit is important. Selecting some dumbfuck or asshole because he's 'BPA' is nonsensical, as is, say, picking a shooting guard when there are small forwards available.

So, on every level of what we can mean by BPA, I disagree.

The "consensus BPA" never actually matters because the consensus never has to turn in a draft card. Yes, there are obvious "BPAs" at pick 1 like Wemby, but it's because the players are so far ahead of the others that the "consensus" translates to 30 teams' subjective draft boards. There are rarely ever any "objective" BPAs, there are only consensus, but again - the consensus doesn't make picks. Every team convinces themselves that their board is the correct one, right up until the moment that they screw it up one too many times and get the axe.

I hear what you are saying, Mr. Body, but the Spurs FO will set their board based what they feel are the best players. The Lonnie Walker pick is a good example of their penchant for this, a 6'4" shooting guard seemed like probably not the the top priority in 2018, but that's who they picked, undoubted because they felt that was the best player on the board (in hindsight, Jalen Brunson would have been the best pick, though that probably would have just led to a bunch of "why doesn't Brunson play more" threads before he eventually goes on to play elsewhere). I think the fact there is no consensus ranking this year just further backs up this idea. I'm sure if the tags are touching on two players, and one is a SF and the other is a SG, they'd certainly take the SF. But if there is a considerable gap, then they'll probably take the SG.

[mo7888]

Of course the Spurs are going to draft BPA, per however they set their board. What Chinook (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=37557) is saying shouldn't be controversial or ground breaking by any means. That's what they've always done. I doubt the team would ever admit to taking a player they have rated lower on their board in the first round because it fits a need, unless someone can correct me? Some of the factors they use to set their board, however, aren't always the ones we, or other teams, would use... but until such time as someone else is making the decisions, that's what they'll do.

And of course, none of our opinions matter, but that doesn't mean we can't share and discuss them here, on this discussion board.

Yep. The Spurs will have their board, and it'll be broken down into tiers. Fit will only come into it if they have a couple of guys rated equally within the same tier. Pretty common sense stuff...

[The Truth #6]

The bigger question to me is what criteria do they use collectively to determine BPA. That's where the debate exists. What determines upside et cetera.

[DAF86]

BPA only works when there's a player that clearly separetes from the pack. There are none on this draft, so between a center that I don't know how good he will be, and a PG that I don't know how good he will be, I'm taking the PG, tbh.

[CGD]

Let’s be honest, this team likely has Richaser and Topic at 1/2 on their board (though order unclear). Pop has gone out of his way of late to praise the Euro prepped players.

The real question to me is what happens if they’re off the board. Who is their #3?

[Mr. Body]

Let’s be honest, this team likely has Richaser and Topic at 1/2 on their board (though order unclear). Pop has gone out of his way of late to praise the Euro prepped players.

The real question to me is what happens if they’re off the board. Who is their #3?

I mean, he was talking about peewee basketball, too. Doesn't mean he's going to draft elementary school players.

[SpursBills]

The bigger question to me is what criteria do they use collectively to determine BPA. That's where the debate exists. What determines upside et cetera.

This is the question to me as well. Front office seems to value extremely raw "coachable" guys with good positional tools over production. They want to lean into their development strengths and feel that lack of production at a young age makes their prospects undervalued relative to consensus. If you look at guys like Dejounte (+length and size), Lonnie Walker (+athleticism), Josh Primo (+size), Jeremy Sochan (+speed relative to size), Blake Wesley (+size and athleticism), it follows a pretty consistent pattern of guys who had questionable college production with good physical tools. Sometimes this works out well for them, and other times it doesn't. It's almost the exact opposite approach compared to a team like Memphis for example who leans very strongly into analytics and production over physical tools (Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, Vince Williams Jr, Desmond Bane).

If we go by their prior history of drafting, many of us are probably going to be disappointed by their pick as they are unlikely going to take Dillingham or Sheppard. If I were to predict who they draft (not my personal preference), Cody Williams seems like he would fit their prior history. They will bank on +size (6'8"), +wingspan (7'2") relative to position as well as how raw he is physically, and lean into their development. If that happens, we'll have to see how that works out for them.

[The Truth #6]

Yeah, I see Cody as the quintessential pick. Checks almost all their boxes. They might not really want a true point guard and would prefer to continue to create them.

[Chinook]

I don't understand how BPA has come to mean consensus top player to some folks. It's always been board specific, because the draft is board specific: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/osvgxg/what_does_best_player_available_really_mean/

The Spurs can possibly pick anywhere from 1-9 with their natural pick and 7-12 if they get the Toronto pick. Even if there were a Wembanyama in this draft, the Spurs would have to create a board around the other prospects. They're going to need to be able to choose between an unknown combination of players. I can't see how they don't have detailed reports on all the lotto guys along with plans to do even deeper dives on them. They're going to very much know who they prefer in this situations.

[JPB]

Looking for your starting PG through the draft means at least 3 or 4 years (the time to develop the kid at the most difficult position in the NBA that does take a lot of time to master, if you ever do.

Do we really want to deprave Wemby from having a real quality PG running the show for another 4 years? He sure doesn't want. You can't expect a Topic (that, let's be honest, no one ever saw play here) or any other PG in this draft to come out and rule the league, right of the bat. How many rookie PGs did that these past 10 years?

We gotta stop hyping and fantasizing about these young guys. Tre woul still be a better option as a starter than Topic in his first 2-3 years in the NBA... And I don't even believe Topic will ever be a starter in the NBA, maybe not even a back up. There's no PG that's been more hyped than Scoot Henderson entering the draft these last few years... And it's clearly gonna take at least another 2-3 years after this season before he eventually become a valuable starting PG.

This team needs a real floor general who can shoot the 3, knows the NBA and a buddy for Victor to play with, and not in 3 or 4 years, now.

[rankingtear]

Looking for your starting PG through the draft means at least 3 or 4 years (the time to develop the kid at the most difficult position in the NBA that does take a lot of time to master, if you ever do.

Do we really want to deprave Wemby from having a real quality PG running the show for another 4 years? He sure doesn't want. You can't expect a Topic (that, let's be honest, no one ever saw play here) or any other PG in this draft to come out and rule the league, right of the bat. How many rookie PGs did that these past 10 years?

We gotta stop hyping and fantasizing about these young guys. Tre woul still be a better option as a starter than Topic in his first 2-3 years in the NBA... And I don't even believe Topic will ever be a starter in the NBA, maybe not even a back up. There's no PG that's been more hyped than Scoot Henderson entering the draft these last few years... And it's clearly gonna take at least another 2-3 years after this season before he eventually become a valuable starting PG.

This team needs a real floor general who can shoot the 3, knows the NBA and a buddy for Victor to play with, and not in 3 or 4 years, now.

He has Devin to play with. All modern bigs don't have floor generals. Tre is just the training wheels until year 3 Wemby.

[The Truth #6]

Drafting vs trading for players. We agree, yeah, take the best player. But no one would trade assets for a player on another team just because he's better unless he fit with the team. I understand drafting players is cheaper and involves molding them, but in the end it's still a team that has to fit together. Just bloviating.

[SOMA Spur]

Drafting vs trading for players. We agree, yeah, take the best player. But no one would trade assets for a player on another team just because he's better unless he fit with the team. I understand drafting players is cheaper and involves molding them, but in the end it's still a team that has to fit together. Just bloviating.

in this same vein, the only time I recall the Spurs ever drafting for positional need was Kawhi. Pop talked about how much he hated trading his favorite player George, but the team needed a wing badly and they target one through the draft. Obviously very different situation this season, as the team is so devoid of talent everywhere, they'll take BPA. The only player type we might not need is a 7 foot french big, but we might even draft another one of those as well. This draft is going to be pure chaos. Really hoping we get that second pick from Toronto for a double dose of crazy.

[Ariel]

I don't understand how BPA has come to mean consensus top player to some folks. It's always been board specific, because the draft is board specific: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/osvgxg/what_does_best_player_available_really_mean/

The Spurs can possibly pick anywhere from 1-9 with their natural pick and 7-12 if they get the Toronto pick. Even if there were a Wembanyama in this draft, the Spurs would have to create a board around the other prospects. They're going to need to be able to choose between an unknown combination of players. I can't see how they don't have detailed reports on all the lotto guys along with plans to do even deeper dives on them. They're going to very much know who they prefer in this situations.
You're surely trying to be conservative, but Spurs should end 3-4 so it's more like 1-7 (with 8th being a very small chance) with their own pick, and Toronto ending 6-7 so it's more like 7-9 (with 10-11 being a very small chance) if it conveys (Toronto tried, but fate seems to have its own plans). All in all, the range is more like 1-9 (1-7 + 7-9).

[SpursBills]

Yeah, I see Cody as the quintessential pick. Checks almost all their boxes. They might not really want a true point guard and would prefer to continue to create them.

Like it or not, some of the clues that this front office have given with regards to the PG position are that 1) they absolutely hate undersized point guards (oftentimes to their detriment) and 2) they prefer to distribute ballhandling responsibilities across multiple positions. They're giving Devin and Wemby more creation opportunity this year. They drafted Dejounte and Derrick White, are trying to play Branham and Wesley at point guard. They refused to play Tre Jones until absolutely necessary. Devonte Graham has barely seen the floor all year despite being a known good 3 point shooter. I suspect they are trying to shoehorn a lineup similar to OKC and Boston where you have ball-handling and switchability at all 5 positions where opponents have a difficult time hunting anyone offensively or cutting off a single "head of the snake" defensively, a lineup that works well deep in the playoffs. Whether that approach is realistic given the available talent remains to be seen.

Based on what we've seen, they will probably not draft Dillingham and Sheppard very high because they're too undersized. I don't think they draft Topic either as they may view his skillset as too PNR heavy with difficulty playing off-ball. I'd be shocked if they ended up trading for Trae Young just based on their history and preferences, as he is both ball dominant and undersized and has questions playing off ball. Most likely they will target one of the 3 forwards (Cody 1, then either Matas or Risacher) with their first pick. They may feel that picking up a Tyrese Proctor or Bub Carrington early second round is better value for them to mold. I personally love Sheppard and think that he'd be perfect playing PG in the spurs system, but I'm not sure that's the way they want to go. Now, they may subvert expectations and do something completely different, but this is what I expect based on how they have acted in the past.

[Mr. Body]

Like it or not, some of the clues that this front office have given with regards to the PG position are that 1) they absolutely hate undersized point guards (oftentimes to their detriment) and 2) they prefer to distribute ballhandling responsibilities across multiple positions. They're giving Devin and Wemby more creation opportunity this year. They drafted Dejounte and Derrick White, are trying to play Branham and Wesley at point guard. They refused to play Tre Jones until absolutely necessary. Devonte Graham has barely seen the floor all year despite being a known good 3 point shooter. I suspect they are trying to shoehorn a lineup similar to OKC and Boston where you have ball-handling and switchability at all 5 positions where opponents have a difficult time hunting anyone offensively or cutting off a single "head of the snake" defensively, a lineup that works well deep in the playoffs. Whether that approach is realistic given the available talent remains to be seen.

Based on what we've seen, they will probably not draft Dillingham and Sheppard very high because they're too undersized. I don't think they draft Topic either as they may view his skillset as too PNR heavy with difficulty playing off-ball. I'd be shocked if they ended up trading for Trae Young just based on their history and preferences, as he is both ball dominant and undersized and has questions playing off ball. Most likely they will target one of the 3 forwards (Cody 1, then either Matas or Risacher) with their first pick. They may feel that picking up a Tyrese Proctor or Bub Carrington early second round is better value for them to mold. I personally love Sheppard and think that he'd be perfect playing PG in the spurs system, but I'm not sure that's the way they want to go. Now, they may subvert expectations and do something completely different, but this is what I expect based on how they have acted in the past.

I was watching UConn last night and expect to watch them more. My feeling is the same as far as points go. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't prioritize taking one high. Tre has been racking up assists and does well. Having an additional scoring threat is important, but they may have other needs first.

The lottery-grade points I think they'll watch are:

Nicola Topic
Stephon Castle
Reed Sheppard

Topic - Impossible for me to evaluate. I'm sure they've sent scouts out there. Puts pressure on the rim. Good size. Apparently a good playmaker. By reputation not a good defender. Not a good shooter from range.

Sheppard - Probably restricted in position he can play, limited in who he can guard one-on-one. Smart player. Makes plays with his hands and vision. Phenomenal shooter, although not at volume. Has games where he does quite a lot.

Castle - Now here I think is who the Spurs are going to have strong interest in. He's fallen by the wayside in many mocks, but he's slotted into a championship-level team, looks like a veteran. Does a bit of everything, good defender with good reads, deflections and disruptive, if not a lock-down guy exactly. Productive in rebounds and assists, gets to the line decently. In interviews, always talking about buying in and team, shrugs off questions about the draft. If his shooting could clearly be fixed, then he moves well up the board. It doesn't look bad and it's trending up. Should be able to play 1-3.

I think Castle is the big guard the Spurs are keeping an eye on.

[Atl Spur]

Can Matas play point forward?

[scott]

The bigger question to me is what criteria do they use collectively to determine BPA. That's where the debate exists. What determines upside et cetera.

100%, and not exactly the area that the Spurs have been crushing it of late. Sure, you can't expect a team to ALWAYS crush their pick (meaning, in hindsight they clearly made the best pick) - but the Spurs used to be a lot better at this then they have been of late. I've posted this article a lot of times, but it remains the absolute best scientific analysis of which teams are the best at drafting:

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-20070ccd1702

(The same group has another fantastic article: using machine learning to predict NBA success: https://towardsdatascience.com/nba-draft-analysis-using-machine-learning-to-project-nba-success-a1c6bf576d19)

Using the most updated Dashboard, the Spurs are the 3rd best drafting team from the Period of 2009-2021. However, from 2009-2017, they ranked 4th but had a higher rating (0.12 versus 0.10). Even though their ranking climbed due to the relative failure of other teams, from 2018-2021 the Spurs only ranked 12th, with a 0.07 rating. However, that rating is largely boosted by the Spurs being the absolute BEST at identifying undrafted talent (yes, UDFA count as "drafting" in this analysis). If we exclude those UDFA, The Spurs actually fall to 13th with a -0.01 (slightly below average) rating from 2018-2021, compared to their #3 rating (0.13) from 2009-2017.

Yes, these sample sizes are relatively small - but there is clear evidence that the Spurs are regressing to the mean in their drafting prowess as of late. It will be curious how the Dashboard ratings evolve in the next two years as the Vassell and Sochan picks are factored in.

[scott]

I also wonder if this post-ASB Spurs, shooting well from 3, gives the FO some indication of what the really want to do - which is upgrading the shooting around the team, and let a Tre (or Tre-like PG: nothing flashy, takes care of the ball, not ball-dominant, only needs to be able to hit the wide open 3) continue to be the game manager. That may indicate that a Risacher or Matas is their top target (heck, maybe both if TOR conveys) or maybe a Kolek as the secondary target with the potential TOR pick? Just spitballin.

[JPB]

He has Devin to play with. All modern bigs don't have floor generals. Tre is just the training wheels until year 3 Wemby.

By floor general, I mean a guy who can make plays for everyone, set Wemby correctly (lobs and stuff), drive and shoot the 3 (I know that's a lot, reason why no rookie will provide that before several years.)

Jokic has Murray, Chet has SGA, Embiid has Maxey. Devin is nowhere the same as these guys and is actually not really playing with Wemby. Theyre both doing their things with Devin a shooting guard mostly looking for his go to moves an not really opening up things for Wemby and others. Vassell is not a playmaker.

Give Wemby SGA and that's another game.

[Bruno]

Like it or not, some of the clues that this front office have given with regards to the PG position are that 1) they absolutely hate undersized point guards (oftentimes to their detriment) and 2) they prefer to distribute ballhandling responsibilities across multiple positions. They're giving Devin and Wemby more creation opportunity this year. They drafted Dejounte and Derrick White, are trying to play Branham and Wesley at point guard. They refused to play Tre Jones until absolutely necessary. Devonte Graham has barely seen the floor all year despite being a known good 3 point shooter. I suspect they are trying to shoehorn a lineup similar to OKC and Boston where you have ball-handling and switchability at all 5 positions where opponents have a difficult time hunting anyone offensively or cutting off a single "head of the snake" defensively, a lineup that works well deep in the playoffs. Whether that approach is realistic given the available talent remains to be seen.

Based on what we've seen, they will probably not draft Dillingham and Sheppard very high because they're too undersized. I don't think they draft Topic either as they may view his skillset as too PNR heavy with difficulty playing off-ball. I'd be shocked if they ended up trading for Trae Young just based on their history and preferences, as he is both ball dominant and undersized and has questions playing off ball. Most likely they will target one of the 3 forwards (Cody 1, then either Matas or Risacher) with their first pick. They may feel that picking up a Tyrese Proctor or Bub Carrington early second round is better value for them to mold. I personally love Sheppard and think that he'd be perfect playing PG in the spurs system, but I'm not sure that's the way they want to go. Now, they may subvert expectations and do something completely different, but this is what I expect based on how they have acted in the past.

It's for sure a possibility that shouldn't be dismissed.
Spurs FO might think that the best path to turn Spurs into a contender is to make them an elite defensive team because Wembanyama will likely the best defensive player in the NBA. Spurs likely will never be an elite defensive team with Dillingham, Topic or Sheppard at PG.
With that "defense first" approach, drafting Castle with the Raptors' pick, after having used their own pick on a SF, makes a lot of sense, especially if they think he will be able to be a decent 3 point shooter.

[Mr. Body]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXAudsmBDcM

I really have been ignoring Castle. I assumed he was doing pretty good things for a stacked veteran roster. I'm sorry, I wasn't familiar with your game.

Other guards have been getting all the oxygen, so there's not a lot of scouting done on him yet, but this is a good one that goes into his shooting and even points out how good of screens he sets. But the defensive stuff.

The bit at 7:50 is spot on. That's the sort of defensive possession that will give the front office massive boners.

[baseline bum]

Based on what we've seen, they will probably not draft Dillingham and Sheppard very high because they're too undersized. I don't think they draft Topic either as they may view his skillset as too PNR heavy with difficulty playing off-ball. I'd be shocked if they ended up trading for Trae Young just based on their history and preferences, as he is both ball dominant and undersized and has questions playing off ball. Most likely they will target one of the 3 forwards (Cody 1, then either Matas or Risacher) with their first pick. They may feel that picking up a Tyrese Proctor or Bub Carrington early second round is better value for them to mold. I personally love Sheppard and think that he'd be perfect playing PG in the spurs system, but I'm not sure that's the way they want to go. Now, they may subvert expectations and do something completely different, but this is what I expect based on how they have acted in the past.

You don't think they'd like Castle at #7 given his size and defense? At least he has gotten his 3pt shooting north of 30% now. Way more interesting prospect than Primo ever was.

[TD 21]

Like it or not, some of the clues that this front office have given with regards to the PG position are that 1) they absolutely hate undersized point guards (oftentimes to their detriment) and 2) they prefer to distribute ballhandling responsibilities across multiple positions. They're giving Devin and Wemby more creation opportunity this year. They drafted Dejounte and Derrick White, are trying to play Branham and Wesley at point guard. They refused to play Tre Jones until absolutely necessary. Devonte Graham has barely seen the floor all year despite being a known good 3 point shooter. I suspect they are trying to shoehorn a lineup similar to OKC and Boston where you have ball-handling and switchability at all 5 positions where opponents have a difficult time hunting anyone offensively or cutting off a single "head of the snake" defensively, a lineup that works well deep in the playoffs. Whether that approach is realistic given the available talent remains to be seen.

Based on what we've seen, they will probably not draft Dillingham and Sheppard very high because they're too undersized. I don't think they draft Topic either as they may view his skillset as too PNR heavy with difficulty playing off-ball. I'd be shocked if they ended up trading for Trae Young just based on their history and preferences, as he is both ball dominant and undersized and has questions playing off ball. Most likely they will target one of the 3 forwards (Cody 1, then either Matas or Risacher) with their first pick. They may feel that picking up a Tyrese Proctor or Bub Carrington early second round is better value for them to mold. I personally love Sheppard and think that he'd be perfect playing PG in the spurs system, but I'm not sure that's the way they want to go. Now, they may subvert expectations and do something completely different, but this is what I expect based on how they have acted in the past.

I've been saying as much for months. The only exception I think they might make for an undersized PG, is if they're a youngish established star.

I think they prefer a more experienced PG or lead guard, even if it's a stopgap like Brogdon or (Tyus) Jones.

I could see Sheppard with the Craptors 1st, should it convey, but with the natural one, I've long thought it'll be Williams or Buzelis (I expect them to be out of Risacher range).

[vy65]

Don’t know why so many people here are high on Castle. He’s got a bad looking shot and is, at times, afraid to shoot when he has space. This draft blows, but he’s really uninspiring.

[SpursBills]

You don't think they'd like Castle at #7 given his size and defense? At least he has gotten his 3pt shooting north of 30% now. Way more interesting prospect than Primo ever was.

Good point, I honestly forgot about him when I was writing that. Yes, he fits what they’re trying to do I think. My first thought was that they’d trade down and get Devin Carter but castle seems reasonable at 7 based on their history as he is younger, bigger, and a better shooter at the same age.

[rascal]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXAudsmBDcM

I really have been ignoring Castle. I assumed he was doing pretty good things for a stacked veteran roster. I'm sorry, I wasn't familiar with your game.

Other guards have been getting all the oxygen, so there's not a lot of scouting done on him yet, but this is a good one that goes into his shooting and even points out how good of screens he sets. But the defensive stuff.

The bit at 7:50 is spot on. That's the sort of defensive possession that will give the front office massive boners.

I've been on Castle.

[rascal]

Don’t know why so many people here are high on Castle. He’s got a bad looking shot and is, at times, afraid to shoot when he has space. This draft blows, but he’s really uninspiring.

Very few are on Castle. Other guards in this draft are weak in their own areas.

[SpursBills]

The follow up to this is that if the front office bucks their trend and ends up taking an undersized point guard like Sheppard and especially Dilly with their own pick, it means that they have strong confidence that he’s going to be absolutely godly on offense

[rascal]

The follow up to this is that if the front office bucks their trend and ends up taking an undersized point guard like Sheppard and especially Dilly with their own pick, it means that they have strong confidence that he’s going to be absolutely godly on offense

The Spurs are not likely to draft Dillingham with their past emphasis on players who have size and can play defense.

[SpursBills]

The Spurs are not likely to draft Dillingham with their past emphasis on players who have size and can play defense.

Yes, I agree which is why I said if they do end up violating that emphasis and drafting him anyway, it is an indicator of just how high they think his offensive potential is

[rascal]

Don’t know why so many people here are high on Castle. He’s got a bad looking shot and is, at times, afraid to shoot when he has space. This draft blows, but he’s really uninspiring.

Doubt Castle will ever become a high scoring pg but he brings a solid all around game outside of being a high volume scoring treat. He will be able to play some at the 1 or 2 and the Spurs will like that flexibilty.

Spurs should team him with a high volume scoring pg and it can work as a three guard rotation with Vassell.

[vy65]

Doubt Castle will ever become a high scoring pg but he brings a solid all around game outside of being a high volume scoring treat. He will be able to play some at the 1 or 2 and the Spurs will like that flexibilty.

Spurs should team him with a high volume scoring pg and it can work as a three guard rotation with Vassell.

So like Trae Young?

[jesterbobman]

I get Knecht has been good and looks complete, but drafting a 23 year old seems completely out of step with the Spurs recent draft philosophy.

Recent Philosophy seems to be:


Young,
Decent feel - some dribble pass ability, regardless of position
Mostly not caring about shooting (Developable skill? Guessing evaluate shooting motion),
Size for position (particularly PG),
Not much care for advanced stat performance
Draft an Alien if possible.


I don't think that's set in stone, but the Spurs have probably got a process for evaluating that they trust decently. I could get Knecht as a mid first pick, don't get him in the mid lottery.

As PGs, Topic, Collier and Castle all fit that. Cody Williams and Buzelis fit at SF.

Second round picks, I think there's more flex.

[Mr. Body]

I actually agree with rascal here.

Here is Castle vs. Anthony Black vs. Cason Wallace in college stats:

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=stephon-castle--anthony-black--cason-wallace

Really similar outside shooting with Black, which ain't great. I like Castle's form better, though -- smoother and faster, while Black had to load up to get his shots up. He's shooting .400 from deep this year for Orlando, which is crazy.

Definitely questions about starting Sochan and Castle together, but Castle has a lot of skills that will be useful. The defense would definitely improve.

[Mr. Body]

I get Knecht has been good and looks complete, but drafting a 23 year old seems completely out of step with the Spurs recent draft philosophy.

Recent Philosophy seems to be:


Young,
Decent feel - some dribble pass ability, regardless of position
Mostly not caring about shooting (Developable skill? Guessing evaluate shooting motion),
Size for position (particularly PG),
Not much care for advanced stat performance
Draft an Alien if possible.


I don't think that's set in stone, but the Spurs have probably got a process for evaluating that they trust decently. I could get Knecht as a mid first pick, don't get him in the mid lottery.

As PGs, Topic, Collier and Castle all fit that. Cody Williams and Buzelis fit at SF.

Second round picks, I think there's more flex.

I wonder how they feel about Knecht and agree they'd have him lower on their board.

A little while ago, I was chewing on the idea of older rookies who were more ready to contribute right away - as a way of raising the floor for a Keystone Kops team of puppies tripping over themselves. But they actually look much more credible right now. Maybe fool's gold, but the team looks better.

Some problems I have with Knecht. I think the team is thinking in terms not of the next three to five years, but the next ten. It's hard to believe Knecht becomes more than he is now. A dominant, high-usage scorer. And is that what we actually want? If he gets figured out, what else does he do? What happens if he can't scale his usage down?

I don't think they'll mind getting an older rookie, but one that fits a mold.

[vy65]

The Spurs are in the bottom 10 for 2p, 3p, and eFG%. They’re actually tied for second-worse in 3p%. They are in desperate need of shooting, especially from the lead guard and wing positions. I’d think it’d be borderline negligent to blow one of two top ten picks (which you spent a year of Wemby’s career tanking to get) on a horrible shooter like Castle. His form is beyond ugly, he’s skittish, shoots almost sub-30%, and is in the mid-70s FT wise, which doesn’t inspire much confidence that it’ll come around.

Who cares about past archetypes. Going that route hasn’t yielded much success. The FO needs to change its strategy to suit what’s available with its picks - it’d be incredibly arrogant to select a worse player than the one available just because it suits an archetypical player mold that hasn’t panned out for the team.

[vy65]

Defense is a need too. I’d like to see them use their natural pick on a wing who they can mold into a defensive focal point while using the raptors pick on a Shepher/Dillingham type. I also wouldn’t be made with a double wing set of selections (ZR/CW and Matas) and then trying to trade for another guard, or taking a Tyler Kolek type in the early 2nd

[rascal]

So like Trae Young?

Problem with Trae Young is it will be expensive to get him and the Spurs aren't going to give up the draft picks it's going to take to get him.

[rascal]

Defense is a need too. I’d like to see them use their natural pick on a wing who they can mold into a defensive focal point while using the raptors pick on a Shepher/Dillingham type. I also wouldn’t be made with a double wing set of selections (ZR/CW and Matas) and then trying to trade for another guard, or taking a Tyler Kolek type in the early 2nd

You talk Matas but he shoots poorly.

[vy65]

You talk Matas but he shoots poorly.

Fair. I’m operating under the assumption that his problems are more Team Ignite related. If that’s not a fair assumption, I’d scratch him off the list.

[rascal]

Defense is a need too. I’d like to see them use their natural pick on a wing who they can mold into a defensive focal point while using the raptors pick on a Shepher/Dillingham type. I also wouldn’t be made with a double wing set of selections (ZR/CW and Matas) and then trying to trade for another guard, or taking a Tyler Kolek type in the early 2nd

Spurs also need wing defenders and Castle looks to be solid there.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

PG depth is definitely better than SF depth. Writing is on the wall.

[rankingtear]

By floor general, I mean a guy who can make plays for everyone, set Wemby correctly (lobs and stuff), drive and shoot the 3 (I know that's a lot, reason why no rookie will provide that before several years.)

Jokic has Murray, Chet has SGA, Embiid has Maxey. Devin is nowhere the same as these guys and is actually not really playing with Wemby. Theyre both doing their things with Devin a shooting guard mostly looking for his go to moves an not really opening up things for Wemby and others. Vassell is not a playmaker.

Give Wemby SGA and that's another game.

They are all SG that just grew into that combo role. Giannis has Middleton and Zinger has Brown these are more ballhandling wings. Coming in these guys are not really known floor generals or playmakers.

[Dejounte]

Rissacher and Salaun played against each other the other day and both had poor showings. But no one wants to talk about when these guys have bad games.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Rissacher and Salaun played against each other the other day and both had poor showings. But no one wants to talk about when these guys have bad games.

you do.

[LeBowen]

Everything is a need, tbh. BPA is the way to go.
Other than Wemby, what do we have that's more or less set in stone for the roster in upcoming seasons?

Devin as starting SG, second or third scoring option. He'll be here unless we move him in a deal for a legit superstar, which doesn't look likely.
Jeremy will be the glue guy, utility forward. Most likely off the bench when Keldon inevitably (and hopefully) gets traded.

Our perimeter/wing defense is non-existant, our shooting is non-existant (despite recent hot streak) and our playmaking is also non-existant.

Sarr is the only player that isn't a good fit, everyone else would be a good addition if they're actually as good as advertised.

I'd rather have a point guard similar to Derrick and then a star point forward, but that's not likely to happen.
And we're not getting one via trade, either. They simply aren't available.

[Dejounte]

you do.

Yeah, because I don’t look at these overhyped prospects with rose colored glasses.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Yeah, because I don’t look at these overhyped prospects with rose colored glasses.

you've made an assertion and now it is time for the grandstanding. joy.

[Ariel]

I actually agree with rascal here.

Here is Castle vs. Anthony Black vs. Cason Wallace in college stats:

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=stephon-castle--anthony-black--cason-wallace

Really similar outside shooting with Black, which ain't great. I like Castle's form better, though -- smoother and faster, while Black had to load up to get his shots up. He's shooting .400 from deep this year for Orlando, which is crazy.

Definitely questions about starting Sochan and Castle together, but Castle has a lot of skills that will be useful. The defense would definitely improve.
I like Castle, he's for sure going to make a good pro and I would have been more willing to draft him last year. That said, now that Wemby is on the team I'm less enthused about using a top 10 pick in anyone who projects to be a spacing liability and a connector type, even if he's pretty good everywhere else.

If we take away marginal rotation guys like Champagnie, Osman and Graham, the only guy who can shoot the 3 better than average at good volume is Vassell, with Wemby and Braham improving but not yet there, Keldon being average at best, and Sochan, Wesley and Cissoko waaaay behind.

With that in mind, adding yet another long term commitment to a non shooter would be difficult in an era where it's pretty damn hard to put together a winning team with such a damaging handicap, just look at what happens to OKC when Giddey is on the floor, with a team full of snipers around him.

Castle could be a good catch later down the board if only for talent alone, but I'm a bit worried using one of the last few shots the Spurs will have at adding a core piece on someone who not only isn't a good 3 pt shooter, but arguably even scared to take them.

And yes, I've been supporting Buzelis and Sarr, but the former shot 43% in HS and I don't find it hard to believe he can get back to that near 40% range, and Sarr is similar to Castle but his rarer archetype makes it easier for me to take on the gamble.

[Dejounte]

you've made an assertion and now it is time for the grandstanding. joy.

Do you ever ask yourself what the point of your posts are? There’s no value to gain in anyone entertaining your drivel because all you ever do is try to act like a smartass.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Do you ever ask yourself what the point of your posts are? There’s no value to gain in anyone entertaining your drivel because all you ever do is try to act like a smartass.

Nope. There is value to be gained in winnowing out the insipid and stupid.

[Ariel]

Rissacher and Salaun played against each other the other day and both had poor showings. But no one wants to talk about when these guys have bad games.
It isn't that no one wants to talk about that, but that probably almost no one got to watch them. As far as I'm concerned, what I've seen from Salaun isn't all too appealing, his frame is great and he's super young but he looks raw and rather stiff, no the type who later on develops into a star. Risacher I do like more, but I've always been noncommittal about him precisely because I don't get to see him regularly to have a strong opinion. The archetype, the length, the shooting, the youth, the iq, are all very appealing, but I like the idea of Risacher more than the actual Risacher, if that makes sense. And I leave it to the FO who actually is doing the hard work to find out whether he's what he's projected to be. It's the defense that is the swing skill for me, if they think it'll translate, I'm on board.

[BackHome]

Yeah, I have kind of soured on Salaun a bit more interested in maybe getting Knecht or Sheppard if we get Raptors pick

[mystargtr34]

The more I watch Sheppard and Dillingham the more I realise how small they are. I think both will be about 6’2 without shoes and both will have average to below average wingspans.

Having said that I still like both of them with the potential Raptors pick. I don’t think I’d take either with a top 3 pick.

The only successful picks at 6’3 or smaller since 2015 draft.

Ja Morant
Darius Garland
Trae Young
Jalen Brunson
DeAron Fox
Donovan Mitchell

I may have missed a few but that’s a quick glance.

[Ariel]

The more I watch Sheppard and Dillingham the more I realise how small they are. I think both will be about 6’2 without shoes and both will have average to below average wingspans.
You missed Tyrese Maxey. Anyway, Sheppard I doubt is 6'2", more like 6'1" with negative wingspan. Dillingham may not even be 6'1", he's probably closer to Garland and Trae Young.

[SpursBills]

Despite what I think the FO will do, what I think they should do is probably draft Sheppard. Even if he goes back to a low usage off ball role for the rest of the season, I've seen enough to convince me that he would do well in a higher usage role.

His impact at the college level is insane. This was from a few games ago, but I came across this stat for the season:
Sheppard, no Wagner = +30/100
Sheppard, no Dillingham = +24/100
Wagner, no Sheppard = -6.5/100
Dillingham, no Sheppard = -3.7/100

Don't know how reliable college +/- is, but clearly the guy just plays winning basketball.

The jump shot will almost definitely translate and is his most bankable skill. His form is picture perfect with a compact release and he's shown that he can get it off C&S and off the dribble in the PNR. Because of that alone, his absolute floor is probably Seth Curry, as he shoots a better percentage on similar volume with similar FT percentage as sophomore year Curry with far better "feel stats" and creation upside.

High-median outcome, I expect something approximating a CJ McCollum/smaller Lonzo Ball hybrid. CJ shot a worse percentage on higher volume with similar FT percentages and has similar dimensions to Reed. Different roles on offense, book on CJ coming out was also a great jumper with a lack of blow-by ability and concerns getting to the rim. He was also excellent at generating turnovers. And Reed just reminds me of Lonzo in the way he plays, with his knack for being in the right place and the way he constantly tries to push the ball ahead.

The most interesting question is what happens if he has hidden creation upside. I want to emphasize that this outcome is not likely. But we have a Kentucky guard who's clearly taking on a lesser role on a talented team who's demonstrated that he can maintain a strong offensive output with increased usage. This is a story we've seen before. Jamal Murray and Tyrese Maxey are probably the best examples of this, but there are many others out there. And Reed's jumper is so wet that he may be able to leverage the threat of it to compensate for his relative lack of wiggle and blow-by ability. If we look outside of Kentucky guards, we have another example of a recent ultra-efficient guard who was pegged as a secondary creator due to concerns with athleticism and wiggle:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=reed-sheppard--tyrese-haliburton
It's not likely, but can we definitely rule this out as an upside tail?

With regards to defense, it will likely be a problem. But unlike someone like Dillingham, Reed's shown himself to be not completely hopeless on the defensive end. He has a stronger build and his outlier-level coordination may help him to overcome some of what he gives up in size and wingspan. If guys try and back him down in the post, I feel better about his ability to poke the ball away. And if he gets stronger, my hope is that he can at least get to mid-career Curry level defense, which is actually enough where you can probably build elite defense.

I'd say Topic's ceiling is still higher, but for what this team needs and with Topic's scary downside risk, Reed has emerged as a far better choice. Vassell's improving creation and Wemby's surprising passing chops have made it so that you need a guy who can reliably switch between on-ball and off-ball roles. Additionally, Topic's downside is a completely unplayable player in Killian Hayes or Josh Giddey while Reed's is at least a somewhat useful floor spacer. For my money he gives you the best combination of upside and downside while still being relatively low-friction in terms of building around him.

[Mr. Body]

Rissacher and Salaun played against each other the other day and both had poor showings. But no one wants to talk about when these guys have bad games.

Because they play against GrOwN MeN.

It is literally impossible to conceive of existing on the same floor as such titans, much less the greatness of simply gathering a rebound or dribbling the basketball.

[Harry Callahan]

Draft shooting, tbh.

Non-shooters would not be great.

[Atl Spur]

Yeah, I have kind of soured on Salaun a bit more interested in maybe getting Knecht or Sheppard if we get Raptors pick

Viva la Knecht!

[BatManu20]

Posting this in here too since it’ll definitely effect the rockets draft positioning (OKC owns their FRP this season):

Gnarly looking injury for Sengun. Sucks tbh. At the tail end of the game no less. I imagine he’s done for the season and likely much longer.

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[BatManu20]

Rockets are currently slotted at the 11th pick. With Sengun out (assuming) the rest of the season, they’re not going to win many more games imo. OKC’s about to get another top-10 pick.

[DAF86]

Rockets are currently slotted at the 11th pick. With Sengun out (assuming) the rest of the season, they’re not going to win many more games imo. OKC’s about to get another top-10 pick.

If they get Sheppard, I'm gonna be really pissed. He would fit right in, in place of the pedo.

[DAF86]

Despite what I think the FO will do, what I think they should do is probably draft Sheppard. Even if he goes back to a low usage off ball role for the rest of the season, I've seen enough to convince me that he would do well in a higher usage role.

His impact at the college level is insane. This was from a few games ago, but I came across this stat for the season:
Sheppard, no Wagner = +30/100
Sheppard, no Dillingham = +24/100
Wagner, no Sheppard = -6.5/100
Dillingham, no Sheppard = -3.7/100

Don't know how reliable college +/- is, but clearly the guy just plays winning basketball.

The jump shot will almost definitely translate and is his most bankable skill. His form is picture perfect with a compact release and he's shown that he can get it off C&S and off the dribble in the PNR. Because of that alone, his absolute floor is probably Seth Curry, as he shoots a better percentage on similar volume with similar FT percentage as sophomore year Curry with far better "feel stats" and creation upside.

High-median outcome, I expect something approximating a CJ McCollum/smaller Lonzo Ball hybrid. CJ shot a worse percentage on higher volume with similar FT percentages and has similar dimensions to Reed. Different roles on offense, book on CJ coming out was also a great jumper with a lack of blow-by ability and concerns getting to the rim. He was also excellent at generating turnovers. And Reed just reminds me of Lonzo in the way he plays, with his knack for being in the right place and the way he constantly tries to push the ball ahead.

The most interesting question is what happens if he has hidden creation upside. I want to emphasize that this outcome is not likely. But we have a Kentucky guard who's clearly taking on a lesser role on a talented team who's demonstrated that he can maintain a strong offensive output with increased usage. This is a story we've seen before. Jamal Murray and Tyrese Maxey are probably the best examples of this, but there are many others out there. And Reed's jumper is so wet that he may be able to leverage the threat of it to compensate for his relative lack of wiggle and blow-by ability. If we look outside of Kentucky guards, we have another example of a recent ultra-efficient guard who was pegged as a secondary creator due to concerns with athleticism and wiggle:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=reed-sheppard--tyrese-haliburton
It's not likely, but can we definitely rule this out as an upside tail?

With regards to defense, it will likely be a problem. But unlike someone like Dillingham, Reed's shown himself to be not completely hopeless on the defensive end. He has a stronger build and his outlier-level coordination may help him to overcome some of what he gives up in size and wingspan. If guys try and back him down in the post, I feel better about his ability to poke the ball away. And if he gets stronger, my hope is that he can at least get to mid-career Curry level defense, which is actually enough where you can probably build elite defense.

I'd say Topic's ceiling is still higher, but for what this team needs and with Topic's scary downside risk, Reed has emerged as a far better choice. Vassell's improving creation and Wemby's surprising passing chops have made it so that you need a guy who can reliably switch between on-ball and off-ball roles. Additionally, Topic's downside is a completely unplayable player in Killian Hayes or Josh Giddey while Reed's is at least a somewhat useful floor spacer. For my money he gives you the best combination of upside and downside while still being relatively low-friction in terms of building around him.

The more I watch Sheppard, the more I feel like the worst case scenario is that he becomes a championship level role player. I don't see his floor being much lower than that. Pair that with the not so remote chance of him becoming a borderline all-star and I'm liking him more and more with the Raptors pick. Heck, I would even consider him in the top 3 over guys like Topic and Sarr, if Risacher is off the board.

[Mr. Body]

Rockets are currently slotted at the 11th pick. With Sengun out (assuming) the rest of the season, they’re not going to win many more games imo. OKC’s about to get another top-10 pick.

They already had the Houston pick. What changed?

[DAF86]

They already had the Houston pick. What changed?

Why the fuck does OKC have the Rockets' pick? What retarded move did they make? Don't tell me it's still damage from the Chris Paul trade :lol

djohn2oo8 :lol

[exstatic]

Don’t know why so many people here are high on Castle. He’s got a bad looking shot and is, at times, afraid to shoot when he has space. This draft blows, but he’s really uninspiring.

You know who else has a REALLY bad looking shot? Tyrese Haliburton. Butt ugly. Coyote ugly. A lot of GMs fucked up bybthining like you do.

[Mr. Body]

The worst the Rockets can really do is slip down to 9. I can't see Brooklyn winning enough to catch up. Incidentally, if Houston jumps up to 1-4 when the balls are picked, OKC never gets the FRP as it converts to SRPs.

Utah is the more interesting case. OKC also gets their pick, but it's protected 1-10 this year. The Jazz seem to be tanking a bit to make sure it stays down there, the way Dallas did theirs last year. Right now they're 9th worst with Atlanta having a game on them at 10th worst.

I don't see the Thunder taking Sheppard. They go for large guards and he's an undersize spot-up guy who can't play the kind of man defense they want. They have enough picks that they can move up to take whoever they want, anyway.

[DAF86]

You know who else has a REALLY bad looking shot? Tyrese Haliburton. Butt ugly. Coyote ugly. A lot of GMs fucked up bybthining like you do.

The difference is Haliburton averaged 42% from 3 on 4 attempts per game in college.

[SpursBills]

The more I watch Sheppard, the more I feel like the worst case scenario is that he becomes a championship level role player. I don't see his floor being much lower than that. Pair that with the not so remote chance of him becoming a borderline all-star and I'm liking him more and more with the Raptors pick. Heck, I would even consider him in the top 3 over guys like Topic and Sarr, if Risacher is off the board.

The moment of reckoning for front offices is going to be when his combine measurements come out. If he measures 6'1" barefoot with a 6'2" wingspan, front offices are going to have to think long and hard about spending a top 3 pick on him.

I have no idea how he's doing what he's doing with his measurements. Not just his steal rate, but dude is shooting >65% at the rim with >90% of his shots unassisted. Those are legitimately freshman Kyrie percentages (66% with >95% unassisted) except Kyrie has one of the most sophisticated layup packages we've seen in the history of the game. He's doing everything on low-medium volume so that's probably part of it, but either the guy's just cherry picking easy opportunities constantly or there's something there that we can't see.

[scott]

The worst the Rockets can really do is slip down to 9. I can't see Brooklyn winning enough to catch up. Incidentally, if Houston jumps up to 1-4 when the balls are picked, OKC never gets the FRP as it converts to SRPs.

Utah is the more interesting case. OKC also gets their pick, but it's protected 1-10 this year. The Jazz seem to be tanking a bit to make sure it stays down there, the way Dallas did theirs last year. Right now they're 9th worst with Atlanta having a game on them at 10th worst.

I don't see the Thunder taking Sheppard. They go for large guards and he's an undersize spot-up guy who can't play the kind of man defense they want. They have enough picks that they can move up to take whoever they want, anyway.

Shame that injuries did their number on TOR, Jazz could have really helped that situation out, but now they are sitting with a 5 game cushion over TOR and I doubt Raptors can even win 5 more games. We really need Memphis to start thinking of their draft position and cut this try hard bullshit. :lol

[Mr. Body]

The moment of reckoning for front offices is going to be when his combine measurements come out. If he measures 6'1" barefoot with a 6'2" wingspan, front offices are going to have to think long and hard about spending a top 3 pick on him.

I have no idea how he's doing what he's doing with his measurements. Not just his steal rate, but dude is shooting >65% at the rim with >90% of his shots unassisted. Those are legitimately freshman Kyrie percentages (66% with >95% unassisted) except Kyrie has one of the most sophisticated layup packages we've seen in the history of the game. He's doing everything on low-medium volume so that's probably part of it, but either the guy's just cherry picking easy opportunities constantly or there's something there that we can't see.

Someone pointed out that Sheppard has fewer takes at the rim than Dillingham has makes. It's not a huge part of his game, but he's really not high volume anyway. He's very picky about his shots and often shoots only when open.

[baseline bum]

Posting this in here too since it’ll definitely effect the rockets draft positioning (OKC owns their FRP this season):

Gnarly looking injury for Sengun. Sucks tbh. At the tail end of the game no less. I imagine he’s done for the season and likely much longer.

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If it's just the ankle it's only the season. Ugh if he has tears in his knee though, probably misses next season and then takes another year to get back to 100% just like Dejounte did with his ACL tear. Really sucks since he's an up and coming star and a lot of fun to watch.

[vy65]

You know who else has a REALLY bad looking shot? Tyrese Haliburton. Butt ugly. Coyote ugly. A lot of GMs fucked up bybthining like you do.

Yeah, including your ass pal Brian Wright. For every Hali, there’s dozens of people who don’t fix their shot. And I can tell you didn’t both referencing Halliburton’s college stats, much less compared them to Castles.

[vy65]

The difference is Haliburton averaged 42% from 3 on 4 attempts per game in college.

[Ariel]

Someone pointed out that Sheppard has fewer takes at the rim than Dillingham has makes. It's not a huge part of his game, but he's really not high volume anyway. He's very picky about his shots and often shoots only when open.
Sheppard is the guard version of Chet. Like DAF86 said, it's very possible OKC will go after him, he'd be perfect for them. And they 100% can get him if they want to, whether he's in their range or not.

[Ariel]

You know who else has a REALLY bad looking shot? Tyrese Haliburton. Butt ugly. Coyote ugly. A lot of GMs fucked up bybthining like you do.
Reminded me of this story: https://uproxx.com/dimemag/tyrese-haliburton-steve-kerr-luke-walton-jump-shot-form-dont-change-video/


“When I got drafted, Luke didn’t really know anything about me, and one of the stories he told me recently was that Coach Kerr had called him, cause I worked out for the Warriors. And Coach Kerr called him and was like, ‘We love that kid, don’t ever touch his jumper.’ And Luke was like, ‘Are you sure?’ And he was like, ‘Yeah yeah, don’t touch it.’ Luke just kind of let me do my thing and from there no one’s ever messed with me about it.”

[Mr. Body]

Sheppard is the guard version of Chet. Like DAF86 said, it's very possible OKC will go after him, he'd be perfect for them. And they 100% can get him if they want to, whether he's in their range or not.

Jesus Christ, Reed Sheppard is Chet Holmgren now.

[Ariel]

Jesus Christ, Reed Sheppard is Chet Holmgren now.
I mean in terms of how he approaches the game, very selective, low usage and efficient, doesn't force the issue, great shooter, plays both ends with the same intensity, makes winning plays.

[objective]

Shepperd probably is the kind of shooter who will bend defenses with his gravity, which only the elite of the elite do like Korver or Duncan Robinson

Man, if Korver's wife hadn't killed his signing with SA forcing them to go with Marco, that team could have won more. Defenses never treated Marco like they did Korver

[Twisted_Dawg]

Shepperd probably is the kind of shooter who will bend defenses with his gravity, which only the elite of the elite do like Korver or Duncan Robinson

Man, if Korver's wife hadn't killed his signing with SA forcing them to go with Marco, that team could have won more. Defenses never treated Marco like they did Korver

Never heard about Korver's wife red lining SA. What are the details?

[exstatic]

Rockets are currently slotted at the 11th pick. With Sengun out (assuming) the rest of the season, they’re not going to win many more games imo. OKC’s about to get another top-10 pick.

Utah has already protected their pick from OKC, and I would howl if, as long as we finish with a better pick, Houston dropped like a rock,jumped into the top 4, and sent two seconds to OKC. Just don’t understand why Houston bought players last summer when this is OKC’s last shot at the 1-4 protected pick.

[objective]

Never heard about Korver's wife red lining SA. What are the details?

It's an old rumor from back in the day, it was allegedly a done deal until the wife got involved and RC said no problem stay in Atlanta after Korver was backing out. Seemed credible but I don't remember more than that

[Big Empty]

It's an old rumor from back in the day, it was allegedly a done deal until the wife got involved and RC said no problem stay in Atlanta after Korver was backing out. Seemed credible but I don't remember more than that we should build a statue of jason kidds wife for convincing him on not signing in SA. I truley believe that would have been Duncans only 2 rings without Ginobili & Parker. I doubt we coulda kept them

[Bruno]

I haven't watched the Salaün/Risacher game last Saturday but Risacher has been underwhelming lately with a lot of bad or average games. Even if he has been either #1 or #2 in most of the recent mock drafts, I don't think he's really better than some other prospects and I wouldn't be surprised to see him dropping in mock drafts if he doesn't play better. That's just the weirdness of this draft, there isn't a single player who looks like an usual top 3 pick, and that includes Risacher.

[JPB]

Posting this in here too since it’ll definitely effect the rockets draft positioning (OKC owns their FRP this season):

Gnarly looking injury for Sengun. Sucks tbh. At the tail end of the game no less. I imagine he’s done for the season and likely much longer.

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Because everyone knows prayers heal people or affect the course your life.

[tbdog]

^ It's America.

[Mr. Body]

Shepperd probably is the kind of shooter who will bend defenses with his gravity, which only the elite of the elite do like Korver or Duncan Robinson

Man, if Korver's wife hadn't killed his signing with SA forcing them to go with Marco, that team could have won more. Defenses never treated Marco like they did Korver

Sheppard doesn't even bend defenses with his shooting now.

[DAF86]

Sheppard doesn't even bend defenses with his shooting now.

Well, given that he's shooting 53% from 3, maybe he should, tbh.

[Dejounte]

I haven't watched the Salaün/Risacher game last Saturday but Risacher has been underwhelming lately with a lot of bad or average games. Even if he has been either #1 or #2 in most of the recent mock drafts, I don't think he's really better than some other prospects and I wouldn't be surprised to see him dropping in mock drafts if he doesn't play better. That's just the weirdness of this draft, there isn't a single player who looks like an usual top 3 pick, and that includes Risacher.
DAF86 your god has spoken

[DAF86]

DAF86 your god has spoken

I was already aware Risacher wasn't doing too hot, but every prospect this year is up and down. The frenchman still remains my top prospect because of skillset, physical traits and positional need, tbh.

Even if he turns out to be a stiff that shoots the 3 at a decent clip, he would still be more serviceable than Samanic 2.0, tbh.

[Mr. Body]

Well, given that he's shooting 53% from 3, maybe he should, tbh.

He doesn't in large part because he can't get his shot off when someone is near him.

[ginobilized]

Are the Spurs starting to win because they don't see their guy in the top 3?

[stnick2261]

Are the Spurs starting to win because they don't see their guy in the top 3?

I would think they lost a lot early on so they'd be in a position to show progress and win some at the end of the season (and still keep a worse record than TOR).

[DAF86]

He doesn't in large part because he can't get his shot off when someone is near him.

Well, that should be even more reason to have guys near him and don't let him take wide open shots, tbh. :lol

[Mr. Body]

Well, that should be even more reason to have guys near him and don't let him take wide open shots, tbh. :lol

That's not really gravity though. If a defender is just in the general area, he's more or less handled.

[DAF86]

That's not really gravity though. If a defender is just in the general area, he's more or less handled.

That's not really true, though. It is true that Sheppard plays more of a complementary role to Dillingham, but Reed has shown plenty of instances of great shot creation for himself and others. I can't post youtube vids right now, but his 32 pts performance is a great evidence of what I'm saying. He's just as elite on 3's off the dribble and coming off screens as he's in catch and shoot looks.

The kid has shown flashes of being able to handle a bigger offensive load, tbh.

[SpursBills]

:lol KOC and the ringer now have spurs taking Reed at #1. That settles it for me, I retract everything good I said about him, dudes going to be a bust for sure

[rascal]

Are the Spurs starting to win because they don't see their guy in the top 3?

Doubt it

They are just hitting more shots the last few games.

[baseline bum]

Shepperd probably is the kind of shooter who will bend defenses with his gravity, which only the elite of the elite do like Korver or Duncan Robinson

Man, if Korver's wife hadn't killed his signing with SA forcing them to go with Marco, that team could have won more. Defenses never treated Marco like they did Korver

Oh well, Kidd's wife thankfully killed his signing here. You win some, you lose some. :lol

[Mr. Body]

:lol KOC and the ringer now have spurs taking Reed at #1. That settles it for me, I retract everything good I said about him, dudes going to be a bust for sure

Seems to have moved him quickly down to 2. I guess he got too many "WTF bro" DMs.

[Mr. Body]

That's not really true, though. It is true that Sheppard plays more of a complementary role to Dillingham, but Reed has shown plenty of instances of great shot creation for himself and others. I can't post youtube vids right now, but his 32 pts performance is a great evidence of what I'm saying. He's just as elite on 3's off the dribble and coming off screens as he's in catch and shoot looks.

The kid has shown flashes of being able to handle a bigger offensive load, tbh.

Nah, man. He really can't get his shot off against a competent defender. He's good at backing up and driving past defenders, definitely, but there's a limit to what he does at that point. As mentioned above, he's taken fewer shots in the paint than Dillingham has total makes, and Dillingham isn't exactly a great finisher.

Sheppard can absolutely take advantage of a defense that is scrambling and moving around or in transition. What he cannot do is self-create much out of a stand-still. Gravity is what Damian Lillard provides -- drawing multiple defenders to have to handle him. If Sheppard has a competent defender on him, he's not getting his shot off.

[SpursBills]

Nah, man. He really can't get his shot off against a competent defender. He's good at backing up and driving past defenders, definitely, but there's a limit to what he does at that point. As mentioned above, he's taken fewer shots in the paint than Dillingham has total makes, and Dillingham isn't exactly a great finisher.

Sheppard can absolutely take advantage of a defense that is scrambling and moving around or in transition. What he cannot do is self-create much out of a stand-still. Gravity is what Damian Lillard provides -- drawing multiple defenders to have to handle him. If Sheppard has a competent defender on him, he's not getting his shot off.

I agree with this. He's not a true advantage creator. I also wouldn't classify him as a movement shooter like Duncan Robinson or Kyle Korver both because of his size and because I haven't really seen him shoot while he's off-balance. What he does seem to be very good about is recognizing how and when to take advantage of small gaps to get open, very quickly recognizing advantage situations, and he seems to be pretty good at utilizing a screen to get himself open. Ultimately, that plays very well into the spurs offensive system and he's an excellent fit for what they try and do offensively. I would have a really really hard time taking him top 3 though, and #1 overall seems absolutely crazy to me.

[baseline bum]

:lol KOC and the ringer now have spurs taking Reed at #1. That settles it for me, I retract everything good I said about him, dudes going to be a bust for sure

I don't know what's worse, them mocking Sheppard #1 or Holland #5. At least it's the first mock I have seen that has Walters going at a reasonable number (16) though.

[baseline bum]

Seems to have moved him quickly down to 2. I guess he got too many "WTF bro" DMs.

Sheppard is #2 in his best players list but he's #1 in his mock. Also has Castle #4 to Washington in his mock.

[baseline bum]

Is Risacher losing an inch every month? I could swear early in the season he was supposed to be a 6'11" guy who could shoot threes. Then all the draft sites moved him to 6'10". Lately I had been seeing him listed at 6'9" but now in The Ringer's mock draft they have him listed at 6'8".

[ace3g]

https://twitter.com/KevinOConnorNBA/status/1767241314670907554

[DAF86]

Nah, man. He really can't get his shot off against a competent defender. He's good at backing up and driving past defenders, definitely, but there's a limit to what he does at that point. As mentioned above, he's taken fewer shots in the paint than Dillingham has total makes, and Dillingham isn't exactly a great finisher.

Sheppard can absolutely take advantage of a defense that is scrambling and moving around or in transition. What he cannot do is self-create much out of a stand-still. Gravity is what Damian Lillard provides -- drawing multiple defenders to have to handle him. If Sheppard has a competent defender on him, he's not getting his shot off.


I agree with this. He's not a true advantage creator. I also wouldn't classify him as a movement shooter like Duncan Robinson or Kyle Korver both because of his size and because I haven't really seen him shoot while he's off-balance. What he does seem to be very good about is recognizing how and when to take advantage of small gaps to get open, very quickly recognizing advantage situations, and he seems to be pretty good at utilizing a screen to get himself open. Ultimately, that plays very well into the spurs offensive system and he's an excellent fit for what they try and do offensively. I would have a really really hard time taking him top 3 though, and #1 overall seems absolutely crazy to me.

I mean he got off his shot in all kinds of different ways here: off the dribble 3, off the move, catch and shoot, strong finishes, acrobatic/contested layups, floaters, 30 footers, heck, even a buzzer beater. I realize this is a career game, but it shows that he has the potential to do it, if given the role.

MU6qWv6Cz2E

With each passing days, I'm leaning towards this guy more and more. He reminds me of Manu a bit, he will do anything you ask of him to win a basketball game. I doubt he doesn't have a 15 years NBA career as a pretty solid role player, at the very least.

[LeBowen]

https://twitter.com/KevinOConnorNBA/status/1767241314670907554

He thinks Spurs would draft Sheppard ahead of Risacher?
I really don't see it.

If Spurs end up with #1 and #7, Risacher and Sheppard is a possibility because I don't see anyone other than Wizards or Jazz picking Sheppard.

[Mr. Body]

Sheppard at #1 is effing nuts, but this is the guy who liked Killian Hayes way above anybody in 2020 draft.

Reed Sheppard is not the player people suddenly think he is. He's a small off-ball shooter who is not a strong man defender. If you can get him at #10 or #12, sure. In this draft, around #6 or #7, fine. But he's not the upside star people are suddenly freighting him with.

I'm getting really suspicious of Risacher, too. He had a poor summer and wasn't the strongest shooter and he seems to be falling down to earth after getting very hot. Returning to the mean. And if he's only a 35% shooter he doesn't do anything else to warrant a high pick.

[baseline bum]

Sheppard at #1 is effing nuts, but this is the guy who liked Killian Hayes way above anybody in 2020 draft.

Reed Sheppard is not the player people suddenly think he is. He's a small off-ball shooter who is not a strong man defender. If you can get him at #10 or #12, sure. In this draft, around #6 or #7, fine. But he's not the upside star people are suddenly freighting him with.

I'm getting really suspicious of Risacher, too. He had a poor summer and wasn't the strongest shooter and he seems to be falling down to earth after getting very hot. Returning to the mean. And if he's only a 35% shooter he doesn't do anything else to warrant a high pick.

I'm amazed how small Sheppard looks when I watch Kentucky. Dude looks even smaller than Dillingham.

[spurraider21]

I'm amazed how small Sheppard looks when I watch Kentucky. Dude looks even smaller than Dillingham.
he's either 6'2 or 6'3 with a wingspan probably no longer than 6'4. he's definitely small, which is why as much as i love the traits he brings, im only exciting about taking him if a really believe he can be a point guard. like, he has to be at minimum an Austin Reaves level pg/distributor

only other scenario id even consider taking him is if i already took topic and the good wings are off the board. then you could have Sheppard be a bench combo guard who can play alongside any of Vassell/Branham, and even Topic where they can cross-match defensively. Topic probably does better against 2's than 1's anyway given his length

[scott]

:lol KOC and the ringer now have spurs taking Reed at #1. That settles it for me, I retract everything good I said about him, dudes going to be a bust for sure

That would be certainly have to be the wildest result to a tank job ever, right?

[scott]

I agree with this. He's not a true advantage creator. I also wouldn't classify him as a movement shooter like Duncan Robinson or Kyle Korver both because of his size and because I haven't really seen him shoot while he's off-balance. What he does seem to be very good about is recognizing how and when to take advantage of small gaps to get open, very quickly recognizing advantage situations, and he seems to be pretty good at utilizing a screen to get himself open. Ultimately, that plays very well into the spurs offensive system and he's an excellent fit for what they try and do offensively. I would have a really really hard time taking him top 3 though, and #1 overall seems absolutely crazy to me.

Sounds like he would fit well into those Floppy sets we would run for Doug all the time.

[scott]

https://twitter.com/KevinOConnorNBA/status/1767241314670907554

This is a nice draft for Atlanta, for the "it will be impossible for them to improve" crowd.

[toki9]

He thinks Spurs would draft Sheppard ahead of Risacher?
I really don't see it.

If Spurs end up with #1 and #7, Risacher and Sheppard is a possibility because I don't see anyone other than Wizards or Jazz picking Sheppard.

It’s not as bad as his Killian Hayes call, so there’s that.

[vy65]

That would be certainly have to be the wildest result to a tank job ever, right?

lol setting Wemby year 1 on fire for Shepperd and Holand

[baseline bum]

lol setting Wemby year 1 on fire for Shepperd and Holand

Not even that, it's for Sheppard and Salaun in their mock :lol

[vy65]

Not even that, it's for Sheppard and Salaun in their mock :lol

crofl

[exstatic]

If the Spurs win the lottery, they are not taking Reed Sheppard.

[spurraider21]

If the Spurs win the lottery, they are not taking Reed Sheppard.
but when they do, at least we'll have you to explain to us why it was the correct decision

[exstatic]

but when they do, at least we'll have you to explain to us why it was the correct decision

I’ll go all Scott and turn on PATFO if they waste a lottery win on a rotation level player.

[Dejounte]

If Reed turns out to be Steph Curry (yeah, he’s likely to not be), will anyone care if he gets selected 1st? If a team is super convinced that he is and it pays off for them, most would call it a genius move afterwards.

[Mr. Body]

Sheppard and then Salaun would be a freakin' disaster. Having to cough up $45 million a year for Reed Sheppard on his second contract... omfg.

[SOMA Spur]

I like how KOC gifted us the best possible outcome for Picks - #1 and #7, and then turns around and drafts an incredibly uninspiring combo. But I guess the graphics are kinda cool. Maybe KOC and their graphics guy should switch jobs. Probably better analysis.

[Mr. Body]

https://youtu.be/-siHC7F81eE?si=QrCSYw_vDwYmTAcU

Sheppard needs work to become a competent defender.

0:15 Cannot bother the driver's shot. Admittedly it's a bigger player.
0:29 Blown by
0:50 Blown by
2:20 Tips pass and steals; this is what he's really good at
2:30 Good man defense by him
2:45 Absolutely no prayer against Dalton Knecht, who looks like a giant compared to him
3:00 Can't get through a standard screen, leading to wide-open Knecht three; actually dies on the screen, Malaki-style
3:18 Not even close to good man defense
3:58 Blown by
4:12 Can't handle Knecht, might as well not exist
4:30 Jesus Christ, man
5:04 Great block on three-pointer; he's good at this

[LeBowen]

How's Sheppard so high on these mocks if he's an undersized point guard with no actual point guard skills and a bad man to man defender?

What's his best case scenario? 6'3 Klay with better handles?

[SpursBills]

I like how KOC gifted us the best possible outcome for Picks - #1 and #7, and then turns around and drafts an incredibly uninspiring combo. But I guess the graphics are kinda cool. Maybe KOC and their graphics guy should switch jobs. Probably better analysis.

I don't understand why the Ringer lets KOC humiliate himself with these featured mocks and big boards when they have J Kyle Mann who is clearly more knowledgable and a better analyst. Then again, we're all talking about it so maybe he did what he aimed to do.

[Bruno]

Is Risacher losing an inch every month? I could swear early in the season he was supposed to be a 6'11" guy who could shoot threes. Then all the draft sites moved him to 6'10". Lately I had been seeing him listed at 6'9" but now in The Ringer's mock draft they have him listed at 6'8".

He was measured a year ago at the Nike Hoops Summit:
Height with shoes: 6’9.5″
Wingspan: 6’10.5″
Standing reach: 8’10
Weight 193 lbs

[DAF86]

https://youtu.be/-siHC7F81eE?si=QrCSYw_vDwYmTAcU

Sheppard needs work to become a competent defender.

0:15 Cannot bother the driver's shot. Admittedly it's a bigger player.
0:29 Blown by
0:50 Blown by
2:20 Tips pass and steals; this is what he's really good at
2:30 Good man defense by him
2:45 Absolutely no prayer against Dalton Knecht, who looks like a giant compared to him
3:00 Can't get through a standard screen, leading to wide-open Knecht three; actually dies on the screen, Malaki-style
3:18 Not even close to good man defense
3:58 Blown by
4:12 Can't handle Knecht, might as well not exist
4:30 Jesus Christ, man
5:04 Great block on three-pointer; he's good at this

Nobody is expecting him to be an all-NBA defender. NBA PGs rarely are. He would at least not be a liability, that's for sure. And he seems like a playmaker on that end of the court, which is a great skill to have.

I'm obviously not advocating for draftig him #1 overall like that crazy dude mocked, but at around 7 and beyond, he would be my guy.

[DAF86]

How's Sheppard so high on these mocks if he's an undersized point guard with no actual point guard skills and a bad man to man defender?

What's his best case scenario? 6'3 Klay with better handles?
Mr. Body just being overly negative for some reason. The truth is that he can actually do all the things you listed. At least, that's what the metrics suggest. He rates good to elite on all aspects of the game. The questions come from his somewhat limited role as a guy that comes off the bench and plays as a secondary ballhander behind Dillingham. And the obvious concerns about his physical limitations and whether or not he would be able to reproduce all that he's doing at the NBA level.

[Mr. Body]

Nobody is expecting him to be an all-NBA defender. NBA PGs rarely are. He would at least not be a liability, that's for sure. And he seems like a playmaker on that end of the court, which is a great skill to have.

I'm obviously not advocating for draftig him #1 overall like that crazy dude mocked, but at around 7 and beyond, he would be my guy.

Brother, this was a highlights clip package. I've been noticing the same stuff. Not only is he small, he's a terrible man-to-man defender. Not only does he have no prayer if he gets switched off on a Dalton Knecht, of which there are many in the NBA, he can't even adequately guard a fellow point guard.

[Splits]

At least it's the first mock I have seen that has Walters going at a reasonable number (16) though.

About the only sensible thing in that cock draft

[scott]

I’ll go all Scott and turn on PATFO if they waste a lottery win on a rotation level player.

Despite all our differences, I would welcome you with open arms.

[scott]

Unfortunately this might be an entire lottery filled with nothing but rotation level players.

[DAF86]

Brother, this was a highlights clip package. I've been noticing the same stuff. Not only is he small, he's a terrible man-to-man defender. Not only does he have no prayer if he gets switched off on a Dalton Knecht, of which there are many in the NBA, he can't even adequately guard a fellow point guard.

That's actually a condensed compilation of all the major plays he was a part of, that's why there are misses, turnovers and these defensive plays you are pointing out.

If he were such a terrible defender as you say, why does he rate as one the best defenders in the entire country? I know defensive metrics are less than ideal, but if someone is trully "terrible" the metrics would never say he's elite.

Clearly he's not the defender that the metrics indicate but he's also clearly not "terrible" on that end. Why do you have to come up with these exagerated superlatives to try and make your point? :lol

Even if his man to man defense was as poor as you say, his team defense and his playmaking ability would make him an above average defender for the PG position.

[spurraider21]

Even if his man to man defense was as poor as you say, his team defense and his playmaking ability would make him an above average defender for the PG position.
i mean that was basically the dejounte murray thing. he rarely had an impact defending man to man but was a vulture and playmaker. im not saying thats bad per se

[jesterbobman]

I'm a fan of Shep (Stats nerd), but I wouldn't take him at 1. Not sure he's a genuine #1 level on ball creator, and if you're getting a Reddick type with better defensive event creation, that's a valuable player, but it's a solid role player, not a star. The reason Curry is so good is that he can be a major threat on and off ball with shooting and speed of release. If the Spurs think Shep gets there, fine, but I don't think he's showed that level of on ball juice.

Second round should get some interesting cheap depth flyers coming through. Kel'el Ware and DaRon Holmes are pretty consistently mocked near the end of the first, I think they're interesting bets with the early second round pick if they fall.

The other interesting guy to pre-draft is Connor Murray-Boyles (Collin - Dumb typo). He's been outlier good recently, can't shoot but the FT% is OK, and he's super young. Doubt he comes out this year as the archetype isn't highly valued, and he probably jumps a lot if he does the recent stuff for a full season, but I think he's an NBA guy.

[scott]

Sheppard at #7 or 8? I'd be super excited. Would be a great bench player for us, something we desperately need as well.

Sheppard at #1? LOL, I hope Brian Wright has jobs lined up elsewhere (and take Pop with you, please).

[SpursBills]

I'm a fan of Shep (Stats nerd), but I wouldn't take him at 1. Not sure he's a genuine #1 level on ball creator, and if you're getting a Reddick type with better defensive event creation, that's a valuable player, but it's a solid role player, not a star. The reason Curry is so good is that he can be a major threat on and off ball with shooting and speed of release. If the Spurs think Shep gets there, fine, but I don't think he's showed that level of on ball juice.

Second round should get some interesting cheap depth flyers coming through. Kel'el Ware and DaRon Holmes are pretty consistently mocked near the end of the first, I think they're interesting bets with the early second round pick if they fall.

The other interesting guy to pre-draft is Connor Murray-Boyles. He's been outlier good recently, can't shoot but the FT% is OK, and he's super young. Doubt he comes out this year as the archetype isn't highly valued, and he probably jumps a lot if he does the recent stuff for a full season, but I think he's an NBA guy.

Glad I found someone else on CMB island. I don't think he'll ever be a starter, but I view him as a weapon specifically to be used against these lighter centers like Chet, Mobley, Porzingis, maybe Sarr in the future. His build is like a fitter version of Kenneth Lofton Jr. I don't see him ever approaching league-average in regards to 3 point shooting, but he's got the quickness to switch on the perimeter and the size to punish small teams down low both as a rebounder and as a scorer. I think it's a reasonable bet that he has a Brandon Clarke-like impact as a valuable bench guy down the road, definitely worth a second rounder for me and I'm hoping teams stay away from him due to his complete lack of shooting.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Unfortunately this might be an entire lottery filled with nothing but rotation level players.

It might be devoid of top level sure but you really do not consider development potential with this take. The draft actually is pretty good depth to a potential Toronto pick. The talent gradient is not steep 1-10.

[TD 21]

- I wouldn't select Sheppard at #1 primarily because they could trade back, pick up an additional asset(s) and select him anyway.

- At least in shoes (which last time I checked they still play in), he looks a legit 6'3'' to me and stout enough that he should eventually play around 195ish pounds, which is fine for a nominal PG or lead guard.

- Defense consists of various components. He might lack the size and lateral quickness to defend at the point of attack (if they draft Williams with the natural pick, that should be less of an issue), but his play making or "event creation" and offensive skillset should more than make up for it.

- If the Craptors 1st conveys and the Spurs go wing with the natural pick, I could see the Thunder and/or Jazz trying to leapfrog the Spurs to select him.

[SpursBills]

- I wouldn't select Sheppard at #1 primarily because they could trade back, pick up an additional asset(s) and select him anyway.

- At least in shoes (which last time I checked they still play in), he looks a legit 6'3'' to me and stout enough that he should eventually play around 195ish pounds, which is fine for a nominal PG or lead guard.

- Defense consists of various components. He might lack the size and lateral quickness to defend at the point of attack (if they draft Williams with the natural pick, that should be less of an issue), but his play making or "event creation" and offensive skillset should more than make up for it.

- If the Craptors 1st conveys and the Spurs go wing with the natural pick, I could see the Thunder and/or Jazz trying to leapfrog the Spurs to select him.

If OKC truly covets either Sheppard or Cody, a Thunder-Grizzlies trade makes a ton of sense. Memphis needs a bunch of role players around Ja/JJJ/Bane as they want to contend next year and their biggest need is a center to replace Adams. Them drafting Clingan later and either picking up another Marcus Smart type like Devin carter or getting a future asset would make a lot more sense than drafting another raw teenager early that probably won't get much playing time.

[CorrectCrusader]

How's Sheppard so high on these mocks if he's an undersized point guard with no actual point guard skills and a bad man to man defender?

What's his best case scenario? 6'3 Klay with better handles?

Who said he can't play PG? He's got good vision, good handles, and most of all CAN SHOOT.

[rascal]

Brother, this was a highlights clip package. I've been noticing the same stuff. Not only is he small, he's a terrible man-to-man defender. Not only does he have no prayer if he gets switched off on a Dalton Knecht, of which there are many in the NBA, he can't even adequately guard a fellow point guard.

If they want shooting just draft Cam Spencer in the 2nd round.

[TD 21]

If they want shooting just draft Cam Spencer in the 2nd round.

The Spurs need shooting among core or potential core players, not spare parts.

They've played that game for the better part of a decade and it's had them continually falling behind the curve.

[objective]

How's Sheppard so high on these mocks if he's an undersized point guard with no actual point guard skills and a bad man to man defender?

What's his best case scenario? 6'3 Klay with better handles?

Because the draft is crap.

Risacher has been talked about at #1 for weeks and his NBA comp is Cam Johnson.

People are panicking at the idea of getting a role player with a top 5 pick without realizing that if this draft is as bad as it looks, getting a positive rotation player will be a win

[rascal]

The Spurs need shooting among core or potential core players, not spare parts.

They've played that game for the better part of a decade and it's had them continually falling behind the curve.

I don't believe Sheppard will be a starter in the league. So no more a core player than Cam Spencr will be.

[CGD]

Jeesh, just took a spin on tankathon and got probably the worst scenario: Spurs land #6 and TOR keeps their pick.

Could you imagine the meltdown here if that happened?!

[LeBowen]

Who said he can't play PG? He's got good vision, good handles, and most of all CAN SHOOT.

Resident experts in here.


Because the draft is crap.

Risacher has been talked about at #1 for weeks and his NBA comp is Cam Johnson.

People are panicking at the idea of getting a role player with a top 5 pick without realizing that if this draft is as bad as it looks, getting a positive rotation player will be a win

Doesn't matter if the draft is crap or not.
Undersized guards rarely go top3 unless their scoring potential is ridiculous.
If Sheppard doesn't have elite handles, he shouldn't be close to top3 regardless of how bad the class is.

You just roll the dice on a wing you think will develop the best.

I also really dislike the good/bad draft narratives.
Last year's draft was supposed to be the most stacked in years and yet top5 has three players that already look like they won't ever come close to the expectations, with the rest of the class not being that impressive, either.

Two best players in the league are 15th and 41st pick.
Every single draft has all-star players in it, having a top5 pick more or less guarantees you can draft one if your scouting and talent evaluation department is good enough.

As I said many times already, Spurs were widely regarded as the best franchise in the league when it came to discovering talent, they kept pulling great players out of their ass.
I think that changed over the recent years, this is their chance to get some of that reputation back.


Jeesh, just took a spin on tankathon and got probably the worst scenario: Spurs land #6 and TOR keeps their pick.

Could you imagine the meltdown here if that happened?!


We were so lucky with Wemby that we can't complain if we get the worst case scenario in the next 10 drafts.

[scott]

Jeesh, just took a spin on tankathon and got probably the worst scenario: Spurs land #6 and TOR keeps their pick.

Could you imagine the meltdown here if that happened?!

Certainly folks would go nuclear, but I'm not sure it would be the worst case situation. We'd still land a decent rotation level prospect (which we also need), and the TOR pick being pushed out might motivate the Spurs to consolidate it into a trade for a more proven commodity, which might be better off than adding a second of these subpar 19-year old prospects. I honestly wouldn't hate it, presuming the Spurs actually did some wheeling and dealing (for useful players they view as part of this next evolution, not for draft capital, not for more Cedi Osman types).

[CGD]

O’Conner just updated his mock. Interesting read:

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft

[exstatic]

O’Conner just updated his mock. Interesting read:

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft

Posted already

[scott]

Even the player comps in KOC's mock are completely uninspiring :lol

Here are the player comps for his top 10:

1. Derrick White
2. MPJ
3. JJJ/Jonathan Isaac
4. Markelle Fultz/Anthonyy Black
5. Harrison Barnes/Theoretical Josh Jackson
6. Lamar Odom
7. Chandler Parsons
8. Lou Williams/Bones Hyland
9. Goran Dragic
10. Roy Hibbert

[CorrectCrusader]

Even the player comps in KOC's mock are completely uninspiring :lol

Here are the player comps for his top 10:

1. Derrick White
2. MPJ
3. JJJ/Jonathan Isaac
4. Markelle Fultz/Anthonyy Black
5. Harrison Barnes/Theoretical Josh Jackson
6. Lamar Odom
7. Chandler Parsons
8. Lou Williams/Bones Hyland
9. Goran Dragic
10. Roy Hibbert

Just gotta work with what's available. Having a Derrick White esque player on the team would be fantastic for us.

[scott]

Just gotta work with what's available. Having a Derrick White esque player on the team would be fantastic for us.

Sure... just not on a #1 pick salary, since he's still not a finished product. And if he pans out to the full Derrick White potential... you ready to pay Derrick White $45MM/year?

[Mugen]

Man, I'm going to be f'n annoyed to endure this shitty season just to draft Mataz Buzelis with the 6th pick :lol

[BatManu20]

Jeesh, just took a spin on tankathon and got probably the worst scenario: Spurs land #6 and TOR keeps their pick.

Could you imagine the meltdown here if that happened?!

I've gotten a lot of that too. I've been saying for a while now that I think the Spurs finally drop in the lottery this year for the first time in franchise history. We're still the only team in the league never to do it. Just feels like we're overdue, especially after the insane luck we had landing Wemby last year. That combined with the fact that Toronto is about to start tanking hard soon imo, Lottery Day could end up sucking a fat one for us this year tbh. If it does happen though, at least it's weaker draft this year.

[Mr. Body]

Jeesh, just took a spin on tankathon and got probably the worst scenario: Spurs land #6 and TOR keeps their pick.

Could you imagine the meltdown here if that happened?!

The Mugens of the forum would cut their heads off with chainsaws.

Which would be a great thing, actually.

Honestly, we got our insane luck last year. If bad draft luck is coming, better this year.

[Mr. Body]

Underlying my thought has always been a cost-benefit thing, where long-term payment for an overdrafted player is a bad deal.

1. Worst is selecting a bad player or bust at that draft position.
2. Second worst is having to pay an expensive second and third extension for a player that doesn't deserve it.

This year, there's going to be a lot of teams paying too much for talent marginal for those draft slots.

However, there are going to be plenty of good players selected in both rounds. IMM, you may almost be guaranteed to overpay a player from 1-4 or 1-5 this year. I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing to only draft 6. We'll all have a shit, but never see the irritation that would come in three to four years dealing with an unimpressive player.

We still have a high SRP to work with.

[baseline bum]

Even the player comps in KOC's mock are completely uninspiring :lol

Here are the player comps for his top 10:

1. Derrick White
2. MPJ
3. JJJ/Jonathan Isaac
4. Markelle Fultz/Anthonyy Black
5. Harrison Barnes/Theoretical Josh Jackson
6. Lamar Odom
7. Chandler Parsons
8. Lou Williams/Bones Hyland
9. Goran Dragic
10. Roy Hibbert

ROFL KOC saying Sheppard is like a guy who is a top 5 perimeter defender in the league? Can't say I see that projection coming true.

[baseline bum]

Man, I'm going to be f'n annoyed to endure this shitty season just to draft Mataz Buzelis with the 6th pick :lol

Good luck, he'll probably go top 5. :lol

Ugh if this shitty season only gets them Salaun or Topic.

[baseline bum]

Underlying my thought has always been a cost-benefit thing, where long-term payment for an overdrafted player is a bad deal.

1. Worst is selecting a bad player or bust at that draft position.
2. Second worst is having to pay an expensive second and third extension for a player that doesn't deserve it.

This year, there's going to be a lot of teams paying too much for talent marginal for those draft slots.

However, there are going to be plenty of good players selected in both rounds. IMM, you may almost be guaranteed to overpay a player from 1-4 or 1-5 this year. I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing to only draft 6. We'll all have a shit, but never see the irritation that would come in three to four years dealing with an unimpressive player.

We still have a high SRP to work with.

In case 2 if he's not complete trash you just trade him like the Suns did Ayton. Before then it's a rookie contract, way less dangerous than a free agent contract.

[Mr. Body]

In case 2 if he's not complete trash you just trade him like the Suns did Ayton. Before then it's a rookie contract, way less dangerous than a free agent contract.

Ayton was an anchor around their next for several seasons and was actually good. I wouldn't be so blithe about the problem.

[scott]

So long as the rest of the league doesn't think TOR will hard tank for two more years, their pick paired with some modest other asset (maybe a 2027 Spurs Top-10 protected, though you may not want to lock up assets like this) might net you a pretty solid player. Not hating the Spurs @ #6 and TOR not conveying scenario at all.

[baseline bum]

Ayton was an anchor around their next for several seasons and was actually good. I wouldn't be so blithe about the problem.

They traded him for Nurkic and Grayson Allen after paying one year of that extension despite Ayton being a widely known cancer. Rookie contracts are cheap unless you draft Anthony Bennett #1.

[Russ]

NBADraft.net's latest mock has the Spurs getting both Sarr and Knecht.

Strangely enough, Knecht at 3 and Sarr at 7.

[objective]

Any one taken in this draft in the top 7 is likely to be well overpaid on the second contract if they get the average number for their draft slot, that's just how it is

If the guys don't deserve the money, don't pay them.

[Dejounte]

Just get a ready-to-play guy is all I ask for.

I’m confident that they will aim for that kind of guy because if they draft someone who makes a ton of mistakes AND is named a starter off the bat, it sets a bad precedent.

[Dejounte]

I believe all players the Spurs have drafted in the top 10 have started right away. So I’d be looking at guys who can start right now and the politics around it to get a sense of who they might draft. For example, it’s a hard sell to me to see any PG (including Dilly and Topic) to get that starting position over Tre in game 1. On the other hand, someone starting over Champagnie is easy to envision.

[Mugen]

NBADraft.net's latest mock has the Spurs getting both Sarr and Knecht.

Strangely enough, Knecht at 3 and Sarr at 7.

I'd help pack Wemby's bags for the Knicks if that ever happened tbh :lol

[CGD]

The Mugens of the forum would cut their heads off with chainsaws.

Which would be a great thing, actually.

Honestly, we got our insane luck last year. If bad draft luck is coming, better this year.

Yeah, good perspective about last year’s amazing luck/law of averages.

[Mugen]

The Mugens of the forum would cut their heads off with chainsaws.

Which would be a great thing, actually.

Honestly, we got our insane luck last year. If bad draft luck is coming, better this year.

In that scenario, they would have tanked this past year for nothing. And you'd still be sniffin' seats talking about how it was a genius move :lol

[onechance87]

I haven't watched the Salaün/Risacher game last Saturday but Risacher has been underwhelming lately with a lot of bad or average games. Even if he has been either #1 or #2 in most of the recent mock drafts, I don't think he's really better than some other prospects and I wouldn't be surprised to see him dropping in mock drafts if he doesn't play better. That's just the weirdness of this draft, there isn't a single player who looks like an usual top 3 pick, and that includes Risacher.

even sarr last couple of games have not been good

[CGD]

In that scenario, they would have tanked this past year for nothing. And you'd still be sniffin' seats talking about how it was a genius move :lol

Nah, that’s reserved for Washington Wizards die hards. Only those guys can truly stand by a team that went out of its way to avoid tanking the year of the generational talent, only to tank the year after in a historically terrible draft.

[CGD]

Certainly folks would go nuclear, but I'm not sure it would be the worst case situation. We'd still land a decent rotation level prospect (which we also need), and the TOR pick being pushed out might motivate the Spurs to consolidate it into a trade for a more proven commodity, which might be better off than adding a second of these subpar 19-year old prospects. I honestly wouldn't hate it, presuming the Spurs actually did some wheeling and dealing (for useful players they view as part of this next evolution, not for draft capital, not for more Cedi Osman types).

I think you are right. It’s actually not a bad scenario at all. I’m almost loathing the idea of the Spurs get #1 more.

[SOMA Spur]

Jeesh, just took a spin on tankathon and got probably the worst scenario: Spurs land #6 and TOR keeps their pick.

Could you imagine the meltdown here if that happened?!

Thats my screw it just draft Dilly scenario.

[alfahdlan]

We have polarizing opinions on whom to pick at this point, I guess we will have to wait till the NCAA tournament is completed. As of now, we will keep watching where our targets are trending.

[Mr. Body]

In that scenario, they would have tanked this past year for nothing. And you'd still be sniffin' seats talking about how it was a genius move :lol

It wasn't tanking you fucking idiot. It was figuring out the next decade.