2024 NBA Draft Thread

[Dejounte]

Clingan at 1? JaKobe Walter at 6? Buzelis at 17? I can put together a better mock than that one in my sleep.

I’m pretty sure that list isn’t his mock. It’s the results from his statistical model. His mock is ordered differently.

[Bruno]

Risacher was not as bad as his stats in that game. I would say he was quite unlucky.

[heyheymymy]

I’m pretty sure that list isn’t his mock. It’s the results from his statistical model. His mock is ordered differently.

Correct. It's for better or worse a analytical look at ranking prospects.

The model has tons of misses. But sometimes the data sniffs out a hidden gem so it's worth looking at. It nailed Kessler at like #6 when everyone was sleeping on him. From reddit:

From recent classes, it hit on Sengun, Haliburton and Podz from last year. It also was down on Scoot, Wiseman, didn't think the top of the 2021 draft was going to be as good as it was billed to be, etc. For a #1 pick, the stats based model would suggest Sarr is just above the median #1 pick.

The most famous hit is it had Jokic as a top 5 pick in the 2014 draft and was really down on Wiggins.

One big negative is it missed on Anthony Edwards.

[SpursBills]

Rob Dillingham was probably the most electric and fun player to watch in all of college basketball this year. He could single-handedly take over games when he was on a heater, hitting shots from basically anywhere. I wanted to see how this could translate into his draft prospects and potential for pro success in the future.

What is Rob Dillingham?

I know what he is stylistically - elite shiftiness, 3s off the dribble, tough finishes contorting his body around the rim, fearless. Fundamentally piss-poor defense. I think this much has been discussed and virtually everyone's in agreement there. Let's dive into the numbers:

6'0.75" without shoes, 6'5" wingspan
Elite offensive BPM (5.5), terrible defensive BPM (0)
Shooting - 44% from 3 on good volume, 80% from the line; 55% at the rim, 43% on midrange, 4 dunks
30% AST% vs 15% TO%

His numbers paint a picture that for the most part matches the eye test; small guard who's a high level creator using 3 level shotmaking to generate offense but is limited with his rim pressure most likely due to his lack of size and explosive athleticism around the basket. Huge defensive liability.

Comps
At the beginning of the year, popular comps for Dilly were Tyrese Maxey and De'aaron Fox. His numbers don't really suggest these as accurate comps. Both these guys had far more craft/speed around the rim (65% on similar volume for Maxey, 65% on double the volume for Fox) with significantly better defense (dBPM 1.5 for Maxey, 3.3 for Fox). Meanwhile, Dillly has a far more developed 3 than either of these guys.

In order to try and find reasonable comps for Dilly, I tried to screen Bart Jorvik for the last 12 years of college prospects for freshmen who had high level offense, high level creation, and terrible defense. oBPM > 4, dBPM < 1, AST% > 20. It generated a list of 10 guys besides Dillingham, 7 of whom were in the NBA

These 7 + Dilly, ranked by BPM
1. Trae Young
2. Jerryd Bayless
3. Collin Sexton
4. Dennis Smith Jr.
5. Dilly
6. Keyonte George
7. Brandon Knight
8. Johnny Flynn

If you take away the AST% and only look at Kentucky guards you get 3 guys with great offense and crappy defense in college:
1. Jamal Murray
2. Dilly
3. Brandon Knight

What does this tell us?
1) That there is a pretty good probability that Dillingham is at least a decent NBA player in some capacity. Statistically, he is probably closest to a combination of Brandon Knight and Collin Sexton. Knight did not have as much creation upside, while Sexton had a more aggressive game going to the rim with a higher FT rate but whose shot was not nearly as wet. As 3 pointers are valued so much more in the modern game, Dillingham's advanced shooting will probably give him outs to be better than either of these guys in the future.

2) His defense is doomed to be pretty bad as given his frame and lack of defensive success for most of the above list, he will probably follow a similar path

3) He has a ways to go before reaching the high end outcomes on the above lists. You are hoping for a Jamal Murray as an elite shotmaking second banana to pair with a generational big, but Murray bests him in shooting (hoisted twice as many 3s at slightly lower percentage), elite rim finishing, and overall BPM (8.9 vs 5.5). Trae Young is probably the absolute top of his range of outcomes but Young also posted an absurd 48% AST% which was indicative of his incredible (vs very good) vision and hoisted triple the number of 3s with an overall BPM of 10 and even a slightly higher defensive BPM.

Conclusions
Robwitdashifts is one of the more polarizing prospects in the draft. His prior comps suggest that he'll most likely succeed as a very good player in the league albeit with significant defensive limitations. This is not bad considering the relative weakness of this draft. Looking at his comps, he's probably around 8-15 in most drafts however in this draft he's probably worth a top 5-10 pick. His archetype doesn't necessarily fit what I look for in team building but I can't deny that his numbers support future success in spite of his small frame.

[heyheymymy]

Read the reddit thread. Tons of discussion about how the data is compiled and hits and misses the data has produced.

The data had Jokic top 5 when he went in the 2nd lol he ended up being a Finals MVP obvs an extreme case but it's a chance to let data see the draft landscape a bit differently and maybe key in on a more true impact player

[spurs1990]

6-4 in their last ten games and the Spurs are now the 5th worst record. Tanking this season and getting only the 5th pick. Brilliant

[BackHome]

Were really not good what players on this team right now would be starting on a good playoff team besides Wemby?

[Sentenza]

He's flying under the radar right now, but believe me, Nikola Topic is the most talented player in this draft!

Nikola Topic :



physical: Tall, average athletic qualities

Qualities: very young, very good finish in the circle, very good reading, very good handle, very good
passer, good collective defender thanks to his IQ and his wingspan, very strong left hand, good
mentality (work, rigor, modesty), leader

Flaws: defender limited in 1v1, due to average physical quality, shooting in construction


His mastery of fundamentals and his body makes him elite at finishing and passing. Some of his qualities are reminiscent of Luka Doncic: very good at finishing thanks to a great mastery of fundamentals and his body. His changes of pace are remarkable



https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABQAAAAUCAQAAAA ngNWGAAAA/0lEQVR4AYXNMSiEcRyA4cfmGHQbCZIipkuxnJgMStlMNmeyD2d wmc8 sZgxYJd9ErIZFHUyYYD7fkr6l4/rnvmtl7 KitrqV/fq2Y5eLY3Z9S48eRLe7BmVZ9qhTLhQ0algzZWQOVKSsCF8OjAn wbxDTWFDUhPK/jMr1H6HE/IqRky2DyvCefuwItwZzodVoYRiLqMkVCXrwpJ9twZ sgfDYEFYl8wIWxZ9uFf7zkallxlJh4YrLGsKjZRx7VGHhLqwgF UN45DGdb8MeXGpgB4ABZdeDcpZEY51A hyLKz4S1W4MQWm3AibWtgWmk6dyISa1pSdyWTOlLXVp0 eL9D/ZPfBTNanAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC
https://image.noelshack.com/fichiers/2024/14/3/1712164104-959b07c1-nikola-topic-trophy-serbia-fiba.jpg

[Limguogolo]

This string of bad games catches my eye, it's too hard of a drop off from his former performances and I'd be interested in hearing from our French friends if there's some context to it (injury, team wise, etc).
Can't finish in transition, dribbling on the hip, some nice cuts, good defense (not the flashy like), don't like his mindset: soft, calm, always with the look of a man who suffers. He is the son of Bruce Bowen and Winnie the Pooh. I always preferred Salaün, less talent, but a little French flair (for better and for worse).

[Robz4000]

After March Madness, I'm doubling down on my opinion the Spurs should trade their pick(s). If they can trade some seconds to get into the late first to take Edey I'd do it, otherwise just focus on bringing in a few vets that can play with the current roster.

[Raven]

Were really not good what players on this team right now would be starting on a good playoff team besides Wemby?

realistically, denver, boston and minnesota have complete starting lineups, but the rest have plenty of holes

[Vienna]

This string of bad games catches my eye, it's too hard of a drop off from his former performances and I'd be interested in hearing from our French friends if there's some context to it (injury, team wise, etc).

Of course, knowing that this board is 100% impervious to any kind of conspiracy theories, I wouldn't even dare to mention, that Risacher would really really really hate it, if the Pistons, Wizards or Hornets drafted him……
(While he would really really really love it, if the Spurs get the chance to pick him)

[Mnky]

He's flying under the radar right now, but believe me, Nikola Topic is the most talented player in this draft!

Nikola Topic :



physical: Tall, average athletic qualities

Qualities: very young, very good finish in the circle, very good reading, very good handle, very good
passer, good collective defender thanks to his IQ and his wingspan, very strong left hand, good
mentality (work, rigor, modesty), leader

Flaws: defender limited in 1v1, due to average physical quality, shooting in construction


His mastery of fundamentals and his body makes him elite at finishing and passing. Some of his qualities are reminiscent of Luka Doncic: very good at finishing thanks to a great mastery of fundamentals and his body. His changes of pace are remarkable



https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABQAAAAUCAQAAAA ngNWGAAAA/0lEQVR4AYXNMSiEcRyA4cfmGHQbCZIipkuxnJgMStlMNmeyD2d wmc8 sZgxYJd9ErIZFHUyYYD7fkr6l4/rnvmtl7 KitrqV/fq2Y5eLY3Z9S48eRLe7BmVZ9qhTLhQ0algzZWQOVKSsCF8OjAn wbxDTWFDUhPK/jMr1H6HE/IqRky2DyvCefuwItwZzodVoYRiLqMkVCXrwpJ9twZ sgfDYEFYl8wIWxZ9uFf7zkallxlJh4YrLGsKjZRx7VGHhLqwgF UN45DGdb8MeXGpgB4ABZdeDcpZEY51A hyLKz4S1W4MQWm3AibWtgWmk6dyISa1pSdyWTOlLXVp0 eL9D/ZPfBTNanAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC
https://image.noelshack.com/fichiers/2024/14/3/1712164104-959b07c1-nikola-topic-trophy-serbia-fiba.jpg

















I'm still high on this kid. His lack of defense is understated though. It's really bad. Which is weird since he is so quick and shifty. I can see him improving there through coaching, but nothing remarkable. I have faith he can develop a shot as well. You can tell by his advanced drive skills, he just never really had to rely on it any. He's high IQ and hard working. Those guys tend to grow quite a bit their first couple years with real coaching and training. I think anyone that gets him will make it out of this below average draft alright.

[CGD]

Risacher was not as bad as his stats in that game. I would say he was quite unlucky.

Is he still top on your personal board?

[SpursBills]

I still have Topic pretty high on my draft board. He's no longer #1 (I don't know who is at this point, this draft is a mess), but he's still in the first group. Offensively, what we know is that the intersection between height, youth, and passing generally leads to a good player. Topic is still the youngest player in the draft (a year younger than Sheppard and Collier), he has demonstrated the ability to playmake at a high level in the PNR, and he's taller than average for a PG. Your bets on him offensively are that a) his rim pressure translates and b) his shot comes around. I personally think the rim pressure probably translates given his size and craft, but the shot is a bigger question. His FT% is good but his 3pt volume is middling and his 3pt % is terrible, but it's not uncommon for bad shooters with good touch at 18 to become decent shooters at 22.

The defense I'm concerned about. Upright stance, blown up on screens, poor effort constantly on tape. Bad steal rate, bad rebounding rate for his size indicating possibly poor motor. How much does size and wingspan make up for it? Malaki Branham has a 6'10" wingspan and continues to be one of the worst defenders in the NBA.

Overall, I think if his shooting doesn't come around, a different version of Josh Giddey is a reasonable expectation. Topic is shorter and probably worse at passing but his rim pressure and scoring instincts are probably better. Giddey's actually been much better recently and has actually had a reasonable year numbers wise especially after his early season slump, but I don't know if he's necessarily a contending piece. Is Josh Giddey worse for the Wemby spurs than say a Collin Sexton, which might be Dilly's median outcome? Or a late-career Mike Conley like I've seen for Sheppard? I'm not so sure.

[Ginobili2Duncan]

6-4 in their last ten games and the Spurs are now the 5th worst record. Tanking this season and getting only the 5th pick. Brilliant

Why are you complaining about having worse odds at a top pick in what is thought to be one of the worst drafts of all time?

[Ariel]

Of course, knowing that this board is 100% impervious to any kind of conspiracy theories, I wouldn't even dare to mention, that Risacher would really really really hate it, if the Pistons, Wizards or Hornets drafted him……
(While he would really really really love it, if the Spurs get the chance to pick him)
I'm not a believer in conspiracy theories, but if I thought Risacher is purposefully hurting his draft stock by playing below his capabilities, that would mean he's willing to hurt his team and teammates for personal gain, which would speak of his character and not in a nice way. What would stop him from going full on "fat suit James Harden" on you if he doesn't like his role or his playing time? As Brian Wright once said, "one thing we do not gamble on, is character". So for Risacher's sake, I hope the Spurs FO doesn't believe that (like I don't),

[Bruno]

Is he still top on your personal board?

The poor play of Risacher over the past couple of month doesn't really change my view on him. I think he sucks mostly because he is tired both mentally and physically and not because he isn't a that good prospect. He has shown enough in the first half of the season to deserve that interpretation of his sucking.

Right now, I have 3 players on top of my board for Spurs pick: Risacher, Buzelis and Cody Williams.

If Spurs get Raptors pick, there are 3 options I like:
- Draft a second player among Risacher, Buzelis and Williams.
- Draft a PG who is a good defender: Stephon Castle or Devin Carter.
- Draft Topic, Dillingham or even Collier with the idea to use him later as a trade asset.

[Bruno]

Of course, knowing that this board is 100% impervious to any kind of conspiracy theories, I wouldn't even dare to mention, that Risacher would really really really hate it, if the Pistons, Wizards or Hornets drafted him……
(While he would really really really love it, if the Spurs get the chance to pick him)

To add at that, his family already said they don't care about being the first pick, they want to be drafted by the right team.

He obviously isn't playing bad on purpose but I can definitively see him tanking his draft stock in June (by not working out with teams, for example) to be drafted by a specific team.

[Ariel]

He obviously isn't playing bad on purpose but I can definitively see him tanking his draft stock in June (by not working out with teams, for example) to be drafted by a specific team.
That's a completely different story, it's the player's prerogative to decide who he works out for or shares his medicals with, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he does this nor would I think ill of him if he did.

[rankingtear]

I still have Zach at the top, he moves like an NBA player. Him and Sochan just moves around the court with speed. I think it is just rawness not shitiness that we are seeing with him. Same with Cody, instead of raw tools it is strength with him, thin physical players are able to translate with NBA training and physical maturity. Hitting on a low end young two way wing is a win in this draft. These guys should go top 2 on SAS board.

[DrSteffo]

Why are you complaining about having worse odds at a top pick in what is thought to be one of the worst drafts of all time?

Because having a better draft pick is better than having a worse? Some people are plain stupid.

[Mr. Body]

Conclusions
Robwitdashifts is one of the more polarizing prospects in the draft. His prior comps suggest that he'll most likely succeed as a very good player in the league albeit with significant defensive limitations. This is not bad considering the relative weakness of this draft. Looking at his comps, he's probably around 8-15 in most drafts however in this draft he's probably worth a top 5-10 pick. His archetype doesn't necessarily fit what I look for in team building but I can't deny that his numbers support future success in spite of his small frame.

I'm incredibly curious to see whether the Spurs would go for Dillingham, who has scads of talent. ESPN/NBA have been running spots with top picks declaring for the draft. What was odd with his is that Malika Andrews asked him pointedly what it would be like to play with Wembanyama. I haven't watched the others (like Sarr), but it was a crazy question. I'm also seeing more YT mocks that have the Spurs picking him.

To me, as I've said before, the question is whether the defense is really that bad. Of all the general top prospects, he's one I think has the highest likelihood of being at least a good NBA player. In fact, I think some observers underrate him. For example, Jared McCain is rightfully getting more attention overall right now. He was a great shooter at .414 from deep. But Dillingham shot .444. It's like people overlook how good he was from deep, and not just spot-ups. Or, they claim he's not a good passer or playmaker, when he averaged more assists per 36 than any first round college prospect other than Tyler Kolek. More than Reed Sheppard or Collier.

Defense:

To me, he's improvable. I think he got better as the year went on. He has the quickness to stay in front of players, but clearly doesn't know how to employ it the best he can. He made absolutely awful rotations and choices throughout the year, but these got better. He helped off from Gohlke in the last game, which was atrocious. But I see these are coaching and learning.

He doesn't have those foundations, not from Donda or Overtime Elite. What I did see was desire to become a better defender. He was taking things seriously, calling switches and communicating, even if the results weren't always there. In short (as short as he is), I think some of the awfulness can be mitigated by teaching what to do. Unfortunately, some of it is high school level stuff. But I see buy-in and I see want-to. With his quickness, I can see closer to a neutral guard on that end. He will not be a defensive stopper, obviously, but I believe in his defense more than I do some others.

Ultimately:

He's a different player and not at the same level, of course, but teams are overthinking this one the same way they did Stephen Curry. It's going to become quickly obvious how good he is in this draft.

[Bruno]

That's a completely different story, it's the player's prerogative to decide who he works out for or shares his medicals with, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he does this nor would I think ill of him if he did.

I agree that it's completely different. BTW, with the new CBA, medical records are now collected by the NBA and shared among teams that could draft this player.

[scott]

The poor play of Risacher over the past couple of month doesn't really change my view on him. I think he sucks mostly because he is tired both mentally and physically and not because he isn't a that good prospect. He has shown enough in the first half of the season to deserve that interpretation of his sucking.

Right now, I have 3 players on top of my board for Spurs pick: Risacher, Buzelis and Cody Williams.

If Spurs get Raptors pick, there are 3 options I like:
- Draft a second player among Risacher, Buzelis and Williams.
- Draft a PG who is a good defender: Stephon Castle or Devin Carter.
- Draft Topic, Dillingham or even Collier with the idea to use him later as a trade asset.

If we end up with the TOR pick, and we use both picks, I think I actually quite like this option. Double down here with guys (specifically Risacher and Buzelis) who can play the 3 or 4. Despite our glaring need at PG, I don't love any of the PG options here and I don't particularly want to wait several years for a drafted PG to develop. I think a young wing has a much faster developmental path and can start contributing as a starter, whereas any PG we draft might need to take more of a Dejounte Murray-like developmental path.

If you end up with Risacher and Buzelis, sign someone like Gordon Hayward, then also a sign a Malik Monk or Grayson Allen - now you can use your draft capital to go out and try to trade for any PG who might be available (whether a star-caliber one, or just a high-end starter).

Your team could very quickly look something like:

PG TBD/Tre
Vassell/Monk
Risacher/Hayward
Sochan/Buzelis
Wemby/Collins

I didn't include him in the lineup above... but you still have Keldon in this scenario to either be part of the rotation or to use to facilitate the trade for a PG. Accomplishing this makes your team a lot better immediately but also looks a lot better going into the future, and you've not disrupted the young core you've been building around (I assume that PAFTO likes what they've seen from and are committed to Vassell and Sochan).

[exstatic]

That's a completely different story, it's the player's prerogative to decide who he works out for or shares his medicals with, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he does this nor would I think ill of him if he did.

As of this draft cycle, they have to give medicals to everyone, and all players must be weighed and measured at the combine. The exception is if your league is still going on, like maybe Topic will experience.

[Mr. Body]

Someone needs to explain why they think Cody Williams or Risacher are actually top 10 or even lottery picks, even in this draft. They're very, very poor.

[skin27]

Spurs will most likely draft topic or dillingham..it will be a nig surprise if they pick a different name beside those 2.

[$pursDynasty]

I'd love a Sarr @#3 and Dilly @ #7 would be ideal. A high potential upside draft with Sarr's defensive pluses negating Dilly's defensive negatives. Conversely Dilly's offensive positives outweighing Sarr's shortcomings on offense.

[CGD]

The poor play of Risacher over the past couple of month doesn't really change my view on him. I think he sucks mostly because he is tired both mentally and physically and not because he isn't a that good prospect. He has shown enough in the first half of the season to deserve that interpretation of his sucking.

Right now, I have 3 players on top of my board for Spurs pick: Risacher, Buzelis and Cody Williams.

If Spurs get Raptors pick, there are 3 options I like:
- Draft a second player among Risacher, Buzelis and Williams.
- Draft a PG who is a good defender: Stephon Castle or Devin Carter.
- Draft Topic, Dillingham or even Collier with the idea to use him later as a trade asset.

Thanks, good context. The mental/physical wall argument makes sense to me once it was explained how many games he’s logged this year. I hadn’t appreciated that.

On drafting, I see the world similarly with a slight preference for scenario 1 if they land the TOR pick too. I’d personally be very pleased with drafting Risacher and Williams. I’m also higher on Matas than most here.

[CGD]

Someone needs to explain why they think Cody Williams or Risacher are actually top 10 or even lottery picks, even in this draft. They're very, very poor.

For me it’s archetype.

The player I have in mind as the ideal front court pair next to Wemby is Houston’s Jabari Smith: 3/D, size, and doesn’t NEED the ball to be effective.

I rely on the credible draft analysts for their takes since I really don’t follow college/foreign leagues closely at all. These two are consistently rated as among the top wing prospects (Sarr is a Center to me) by those folks. If someone surpassed them at the combine (Matas?) that’s who I’ll happily gravitate too.

I’m not a fan of the small guards in this draft. They’re not elite enough to overcome their holes.

[Degoat]

I know G league ignite players have not really turned out but Tyler Smith is an intriguing fit next to wemby

[BatManu20]

I'd love a Sarr @#3 and Dilly @ #7 would be ideal. A high potential upside draft with Sarr's defensive pluses negating Dilly's defensive negatives. Conversely Dilly's offensive positives outweighing Sarr's shortcomings on offense.

Sarr won’t be there at 3.

[CorrectCrusader]

If you're drafting Sarr you're drafting a backup big. Not sure why we would do that.

[AFBlue]

Feels like a shit draft to potentially get two Top-10 picks in. Trade options?

[CorrectCrusader]

Feels like a shit draft to potentially get two Top-10 picks in. Trade options?
https://imgs.search.brave.com/QJZHZQKeTGQA0QOdxVUABZCp8qedur31QFfvTCxY8A4/rs:fit:860:0:0/g:ce/aHR0cHM6Ly91cGxv/YWQud2lraW1lZGlh/Lm9yZy93aWtpcGVk/aWEvY29tbW9ucy80/LzQyL1RyYWVfWW91/bmdfKDIwMjJfQWxs/LVN0YXJfV2Vla2Vu/ZClfKGNyb3BwZWQp/LmpwZw

[exstatic]

https://imgs.search.brave.com/QJZHZQKeTGQA0QOdxVUABZCp8qedur31QFfvTCxY8A4/rs:fit:860:0:0/g:ce/aHR0cHM6Ly91cGxv/YWQud2lraW1lZGlh/Lm9yZy93aWtpcGVk/aWEvY29tbW9ucy80/LzQyL1RyYWVfWW91/bmdfKDIwMjJfQWxs/LVN0YXJfV2Vla2Vu/ZClfKGNyb3BwZWQp/LmpwZw

They won’t trade him for our picks. Nothing less than the return of all of their picks and swaps will do.

[CorrectCrusader]

They won’t trade him for our picks. Nothing less than the return of all of their picks and swaps will do.

Who knows. Brian Wright it too retarded to go after a superstar guard anyway.

[TD 21]

For The Bigots And The Uninitiated (spurstalk.com) (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=303507)

[CorrectCrusader]

For The Bigots And The Uninitiated (spurstalk.com) (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=303507)

simping for the former detroit executive is crazy

[rankingtear]

Someone needs to explain why they think Cody Williams or Risacher are actually top 10 or even lottery picks, even in this draft. They're very, very poor.

Cause teams want to fill their roster with position other than guards and centers.

[Sentenza]

Oh no! Not Trae Young: this guy is terrible at defense, he has bad % at 3 pts for a so-called 3 pt specialist...besides the Hawks are better since he's not here


https://image.noelshack.com/fichiers/2024/15/7/1713079888-f9fzhdbwqaall9g.jpg

[CGD]

Feels like a shit draft to potentially get two Top-10 picks in. Trade options?

Draft day trade of:

SAS FRP 2024
CHA FRP 2025
Keldon + Malaki + Graham

For Darius Garland

[LeBowen]

Draft day trade of:

SAS FRP 2024
CHA FRP 2025
Keldon + Malaki + Graham

For Darius Garland

They're not that stupid.
I'd love Garland here, but it doesn't look like Mitchell will stay with the Cavs, meaning that they have no incentive to trade Garland.

[sfernald]

Through my extensive testing and advanced simulation I have found that this is the most likely outcome of the draft.

https://i.postimg.cc/RFh3hfNB/IMG-5445.png

[couchman]

For those who don’t have espn+ here’s his top 30.


Clingan
Sheppard
Sarr
Edey
Risacher
Walter
Dillingham
Furphy
Topic
Castle
Collier
McCain
K. George
Filipowski
Salaun
Sandfort
Matas
Tyler smith
Holland
Carter
Dunn
Carrington
Kam jones
Baylor S
Karaban
Edwards
Cody Williams (!!!)
Kobe Johnson
Missi
Ivisic


This draft is so fucking flat that I wouldn't be surprised by a wide range of results on draft night.
This board looks crazy compared to the others but who's to say the Clingan isn't the safest pick to ensure a good player out of this year?
Who can prove that Cody Williams will turn his talent into something when playing at NBA level and forced to increase his paltry volume?
Will Topic learn to shoot?
Can Dilly hang with his stature? Can he play any D at all?
Risacher has just fallen off cliff. Which version is the real Zaccharie?
It goes on and on.

With so much uncertainty, the chances of the Spurs making a pick that no one else expects is very high.
It's hard to call anyone a reach in this one when all of them feel like reaches.
Who do you say are the most likely guys we might want that could be seen as big "reaches" on draft night?

I think Filipowski, Furfy, and Devin Carter are three guys we might secretly like and take way before anyone else thinks they should go.

[TD 21]

simping for the former detroit executive is crazy

Only in MAGA logic could contextualizing his role be conflated for "simping" for him.

@ 7:57: Coach Pop's Pregame vs Detroit Pistons | 4.14.2024 (youtube.com) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9L_ebkf6co)

[Atl Spur]

Who knows. Brian Wright it too retarded to go after a superstar guard anyway.

You gotta let the hate go brother! Presti and all the other GM’s you guys fawn over have won 0 chips.

[Ariel]

This draft is so fucking flat that I wouldn't be surprised by a wide range of results on draft night.
This board looks crazy compared to the others but who's to say the Clingan isn't the safest pick to ensure a good player out of this year?
Clingan probably IS the "safest" in that his role is the easiest to project and he's not going to be a bust. But I also think his upside is barely above average starting center, he can't shoot AT ALL not just 3s but even FTs, and he's got a history of weight jumps and feet injuries. All of that makes me think that anyone who'd take Clingan #1 is simply not confident enough to take a risk and shouldn't be making these kind of decisions. I'd rather take a risk on a player with higher potential knowing that he can also bust even in a flat draft riddled with question marks such as this one. Work out Dillingham, Buzelis, Risacher, Sarr, Topic, and take whomever you feel most comfortable with, or just trade back or out altogether. Personally I think Clingan should go to a team that is already set and could use a traditional center at a controlled cost, like Memphis or OKC, but never for a team such as Detroit, Washington, Charlotte, Spurs, Portland, Utah or Toronto, those teams should take a chance if they pick high.

[Mugen]

You gotta let the hate go brother! Presti and all the other GM’s you guys fawn over have won 0 chips.

How many has Wright won?

[LeBowen]

How many has Wright won?

Timmy has suffered the biggest injustice in history of sports.
Everyone always talks about the dynasty led by the best coach ever with a team full of great players, but the truth is that Spurs would be on Hornets level if 1997 lottery played out differently.

[The Truth #6]

Timmy has suffered the biggest injustice in history of sports.
Everyone always talks about the dynasty led by the best coach ever with a team full of great players, but the truth is that Spurs would be on Hornets level if 1997 lottery played out differently.

They might actually be in Charlotte or wherever if it played out differently.

[BackHome]

For those who don’t have espn+ here’s his top 30.


Clingan
Sheppard - Sharp shooter
Sarr
Edey - I liked Dinosaurs as a kid
Risacher - I believe in Bruno
Walter
Dillingham
Furphy - Kid can shoot and rebound and he is 6'9
Topic
Castle - ?
Collier
McCain
K. George
Filipowski - A big with outside shoot - hoping he can play PF and backup C
Salaun - See above
Sandfort - Nice second day pick another shooter but also has pretty good handles
Matas - A nice gamble on potential
Tyler smith - PF with outside shooting
Holland
Carter - Has the dog in him probably second best defensive player but has offensive
Dunn
Carrington
Kam jones
Baylor S - Second round shooter
Karaban
Edwards
Cody Williams (!!!)
Kobe Johnson
Missi
Ivisic

[Atl Spur]

How many has Wright won?

Are we fawning over wrights moves or ridiculing him at every turn? You guys are comical.

[onechance87]

For those who don’t have espn+ here’s his top 30.


Clingan
Sheppard
Sarr
Edey
Risacher
Walter
Dillingham
Furphy
Topic
Castle
Collier
McCain
K. George
Filipowski
Salaun
Sandfort
Matas
Tyler smith
Holland
Carter
Dunn
Carrington
Kam jones
Baylor S
Karaban
Edwards
Cody Williams (!!!)
Kobe Johnson
Missi
Ivisic



dont see tyler kolek in there...does that mean he can be got in the second round:hungry:

[BackHome]

In this draft everything is possible lol..But if he is and we do not pick a PG for me it would be between him and Pacome Dadiet who has been playing really well lately for German team.

[Mugen]

Are we fawning over wrights moves or ridiculing him at every turn? You guys are comical.

That's what I thought :lol

[spurs1990]

Bobcats came in through clutch with win at Indiana.
Need Blazers to win tonight and 3 way tie for 3rd worst record at Sactown but Kings have everything to play for with 6th seed on line.

I'd imagine 3 way coin flip will win that slot, but looking at coin flip for 4th slot. ̶P̶i̶s̶t̶o̶n̶s̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶ ̶c̶l̶i̶n̶c̶h̶e̶d̶ ̶w̶o̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶r̶e̶c̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶s̶o̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶i̶r̶ ̶p̶l̶a̶y̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶p̶l̶a̶y̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶a̶g̶a̶i̶n̶s̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶S̶p̶u̶r̶s̶.̶. ***NVM they are tied too.

[Ariel]

Bobcats came in through clutch with win at Indiana.
Need Blazers to win tonight and 3 way tie for 3rd worst record at Sactown but Kings have everything to play for with 6th seed on line.

I'd imagine 3 way coin flip will win that slot, but looking at coin flip for 4th slot. Pistons have clinched worst record so their players should be playing all out against the Spurs.
Very unlikely Blazers win, but if the Spurs lose to Detroit they're guaranteed a 2/3-way tie for 3rd worst record. Go Pistons!

[TD 21]

Unbelievable that a season this bad, that for so long looked like it'd at least yield a top 3-4 pick and probably a top 7-8 one, is likely going to end up with just a top 5-6 one.

The hope is that the league's rigging pays off again (they do have a vested interest in seeing Wembanyama on a successful team sooner than later) and/or the "basketball gods" smile on them (even if they did "soft" tank at the end, there's far more egregious examples throughout the league).

Granted, my read has long been that if they couldn't select Risacher, which always seems unlikely, it'd be either Williams or Buzelis, so if that's right then this probably won't change anything anyway.

[rascal]

Bobcats came in through clutch with win at Indiana.
Need Blazers to win tonight and 3 way tie for 3rd worst record at Sactown but Kings have everything to play for with 6th seed on line.

I'd imagine 3 way coin flip will win that slot, but looking at coin flip for 4th slot. ̶P̶i̶s̶t̶o̶n̶s̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶ ̶c̶l̶i̶n̶c̶h̶e̶d̶ ̶w̶o̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶r̶e̶c̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶s̶o̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶i̶r̶ ̶p̶l̶a̶y̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶p̶l̶a̶y̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶a̶g̶a̶i̶n̶s̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶S̶p̶u̶r̶s̶.̶. ***NVM they are tied too.

Blazers aren't winning. They sat all their players. Have sights set on drafting Sarr.

[scott]

Blazers aren't winning. They sat all their players. Have sights set on drafting Sarr.

If the Blazers draft Sarr will that complete your metamorphosis to a full time Portland fan?

[Ariel]

Unbelievable that a season this bad, that for so long looked like it'd at least yield a top 3-4 pick and probably a top 7-8 one, is likely going to end up with just a top 5-6 one.

The hope is that the league's rigging pays off again (they do have a vested interest in seeing Wembanyama on a successful team sooner than later) and/or the "basketball gods" smile on them (even if they did "soft" tank at the end, there's far more egregious examples throughout the league).

Granted, my read has long been that if they couldn't select Risacher, which always seems unlikely, it'd be either Williams or Buzelis, so if that's right then this probably won't change anything anyway.
Spurs FO knows the rules everybody plays with, it was very easy to tank a couple of the last 10 games to ensure #3 seed, they just pissed it away and now have to pray fortune smiles upon us or those drafting before us mess up. No need for that tbh.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Bobcats came in through clutch with win at Indiana.
Need Blazers to win tonight and 3 way tie for 3rd worst record at Sactown but Kings have everything to play for with 6th seed on line.

I'd imagine 3 way coin flip will win that slot, but looking at coin flip for 4th slot. ̶P̶i̶s̶t̶o̶n̶s̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶ ̶c̶l̶i̶n̶c̶h̶e̶d̶ ̶w̶o̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶r̶e̶c̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶s̶o̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶i̶r̶ ̶p̶l̶a̶y̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶p̶l̶a̶y̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶a̶g̶a̶i̶n̶s̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶S̶p̶u̶r̶s̶.̶. ***NVM they are tied too.


It's not as simple as that. If we tie for 4th they will add the 4th and 5th place chances together and divide them evenly. They then flip a coin to slot the initial draft order and take the extra lottery chance if the total number of chances was an odd number.

[rascal]

If the Blazers draft Sarr will that complete your metamorphosis to a full time Portland fan?

No but they will have some good players.

[rascal]

Spurs FO knows the rules everybody plays with, it was very easy to tank a couple of the last 10 games to ensure #3 seed, they just pissed it away and now have to pray fortune smiles upon us or those drafting before us mess up. No need for that tbh.

Yep, if the spurs don't get lucky they can find themselves falling to sixth or seventh and watching some of their targeted players go off to other teams.

Portland had no problem making sure they had no chance to win.

[Bruno]

A point on Spurs 2024 picks:

Spurs first round pick:
There is a 42% odd of Spurs getting a top4 pick with about 10.5% for each pick.
If Spurs don't get lucky, Spurs pick will likely be between #6 and #8

Raptors first round pick:
Spurs have a 54% odd of getting the pick.
If they get the pick, it will likely be #7 or #8.

Spurs second round pick:
it will be #35.

Lakers second round pick:
It will be between #46 and #48 depending on coin flips between Lakers, Pacers and Magic.

[BackHome]

Raptors could actually have a good draft if they keep the 6th and then they pick up Pacers 18th and also Detroits 2nd round pick:

6th - Castle/Clingan
18th - Yves Missi/ Ware/Devin Carter
31st - Ulrich Chomche/Tyler Kolek/ Kyshawn George

[exstatic]

It's not as simple as that. If we tie for 4th they will add the 4th and 5th place chances together and divide them evenly. They then flip a coin to slot the initial draft order and take the extra lottery chance if the total number of chances was an odd number.

100% wrong. They flip a coin to determine pre lottery order. That’s it. There is no adding and dividing. One team gets the ball combinations for 4, and one team gets the ball combinations for 5. Then the lottery happens.

[CorrectCrusader]

Only in MAGA logic could contextualizing his role be conflated for "simping" for him.

@ 7:57: Coach Pop's Pregame vs Detroit Pistons | 4.14.2024 (youtube.com) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9L_ebkf6co)

slobbing that wright cock shitlib

[Atl Spur]

That's what I thought :lol

You obviously aren’t thinking as usual….

[TD 21]

slobbing that wright cock shitlib

MAGA tard logic = contextualizing one's role is "slobbing on cock".

Scumbag bigot has no problem if you're a minority who plays for his local team, but outside of the arena it's fine to treat them like second class citizens at best.

[CorrectCrusader]

MAGA tard logic = contextualizing one's role is "slobbing on cock".

Scumbag bigot has no problem if you're a minority who plays for his local team, but outside of the arena it's fine to treat them like second class citizens at best.

low IQ shitlib thinks because I think brian wright is a shitty gm means I like trumps dumbass
You are in fact, a dick rider for a shit gm

[TD 21]

low IQ shitlib thinks because I think brian wright is a shitty gm means I like trumps dumbass
You are in fact, a dick rider for a shit gm

MAGA tard thinks because I called him that it automatically means I'm a "lib".

I could careless about Wright and he may well be a "shit GM", he's just not the lead decision maker or the one with autonomy and continuing to pretend otherwise only leads to one obvious conclusion.

[cool cat]

Is there even a starter in this draft?

[scott]

100% wrong. They flip a coin to determine pre lottery order. That’s it. There is no adding and dividing. One team gets the ball combinations for 4, and one team gets the ball combinations for 5. Then the lottery happens.

The coin flip determines the order in respect to the range of picks you can end up with, but the actual lottery balls (which determine picks 1-4) are indeed split amongst tied teams. The team that wins the coin flip also gets the remaining odd ping pong ball after they are split. This is noted by Tankathon at the bottom of this page: https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

How this plays out practically if teams were, for example, tied for 3rd and 4th, which is the case for Portland and Charlotte. The odds for a top 4/top 1 pick get split evenly (save for the extra ping pong ball), regardless of what happens during the coin flip. The winner of the coin flip will get the "3 seed" gets the extra ping pong ball and can drop no lower than the 7th pick. The loser of the flip gets the "4th seed" and can drop to 8th. However, for the lottery drawing, their odds are split.

This happened in 2021, when OKC and CLE entered the lottery both with a 22-60 record. OKC won the coin flip, but as you can see from the post coin flip press release from the NBA, both OKC and CLE entered the lottery with identical odds at winning it: https://www.nba.com/news/ties-broken-for-order-of-selection-in-2021-nba-draft. You'll also note that despite Chicago winning the 3-way coin flip, Chicago, Sacramento and New Orleans all entered the lottery with the same 4.5% odds of winning - because the odds were split between the three tied teams.

So, it is in fact you who is 100% wrong (shocking, I know). buttsR4rebounding is correct.

[TVI]

100% wrong. They flip a coin to determine pre lottery order. That’s it. There is no adding and dividing. One team gets the ball combinations for 4, and one team gets the ball combinations for 5. Then the lottery happens.

I don’t think that’s right:

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. Should the average number not be an integer (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integer), a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination. The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first four picks via the lottery. For example, in 2020, the New Orleans Pelicans (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Orleans_Pelicans) and the Sacramento Kings (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sacramento_Kings) tied for the 12th-worst record (due to the COVID-19 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19)suspension of the 2019–20 NBA season (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspension_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_NBA_season), only the record as of March 12, 2020 was considered for lottery purposes). The average of the 12th and 13th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 12 combinations (the average of 15 and 10). A coin flip was used to break the tie for the lottery position and assign the extra lottery combination. Sacramento won, giving them the 12th-best lottery odds and New Orleans 13th best. They received the 12th and 13th picks, respectively, after neither was drawn in the lottery. The order was reversed in the second round as New Orleans received the 42nd pick and Sacramento the 43rd.

[scott]

exstatic stating wrong information with total confidence is a tradition as old as this website.

[buttsR4rebounding]

100% wrong. They flip a coin to determine pre lottery order. That’s it. There is no adding and dividing. One team gets the ball combinations for 4, and one team gets the ball combinations for 5. Then the lottery happens.

Don’t you get tired of being wrong?

[MultiTroll]

Could anyone explain why in the hell Charlotte would choose to win today?
Trailed by 8 entering the 4th qtr.

Moved from for sure 3rd spot to tiebreaker and most likely (or is if for sure) 4th place.

[exstatic]

Don’t you get tired of being wrong?

I’m not wrong on this. Look in the mirror for wrong. All ties are broken by coin flips, pre lottery, and there is one team in each slot, 1-14, with the odds for that slot in the lottery.

[duncan2150]

Now that the season is over

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

so it's close to 0 that we'll not have the pick 5 lol, same with pick 9

42% to have a pick between 1-4 and picks 6-7 are the more likely outcome with like 46 %.

[Ariel]

Could anyone explain why in the hell Charlotte would choose to win today?
Trailed by 8 entering the 4th qtr.

Moved from for sure 3rd spot to tiebreaker and most likely (or is if for sure) 4th place.
By winning, Charlotte lost 1.8% chance at a top 4 spot. The Spurs lost 5.4% chance at a top 4 spot by winning, so it's not Charlotte who screwed up the worse today.

[exstatic]

Could anyone explain why in the hell Charlotte would choose to win today?
Trailed by 8 entering the 4th qtr.

Moved from for sure 3rd spot to tiebreaker and most likely (or is if for sure) 4th place.

Since there’s no generational player, or even a clear #1, they probably didn’t care about dropping into a coin flip tie breaker. The odds for 3 and 4 are not monumentally different.

[Ariel]

I’m not wrong on this. Look in the mirror for wrong. All ties are broken by coin flips, pre lottery, and there is one team in each slot, 1-14, with the odds for that slot in the lottery.
All ties are broken but only come into play if the teams fall outside of the top 4, so that the team who won the tiebreaker gets the better pick. For the lottery spots (1-4) odds are split between tied teams.

[MultiTroll]

Since there’s no generational player, or even a clear #1, they probably didn’t care about dropping into a coin flip tie breaker. The odds for 3 and 4 are not monumentally different.
Sheesh.
You'd think out of the entire planet a top 3 or 4 pick would contribute well and be worth simply tanking one final 4th qtr for.
Where you teams already down 8 entering that 4th qtr.

[duncan2150]

By winning, Charlotte lost 1.8% chance at a top 4 spot. The Spurs lost 5.4% chance at a top 4 spot by winning, so it's not Charlotte who screwed up the worse today.

spurs played their g league team but that detroit team is so bad. Im not mad at that especially with this draft.

[exstatic]

By winning, Charlotte lost 1.8% chance at a top 4 spot. The Spurs lost 5.4% chance at a top 4 spot by winning, so it's not Charlotte who screwed up the worse today.

I think the Spurs kept their foot on the brakes until they were sure they could keep TOR out of the top 5 pick odds. Then they went on a little heater, probably for team and fan morale. It wasn’t just today. And, I mean, we were running lineups with Mamu, Sidy who spent most of the year in Austin, and our 3 2ways. Detroit was just determined to lose to those players. I’d laugh my ass off if they fall to #5 again, and it’s not out of the question. They have 22X the odds to pick at #5 (47.8%) than we have of picking at #5 (2,2%).

[Ariel]

spurs played their g league team but that detroit team is so bad. Im not mad at that especially with this draft.
Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.

[exstatic]

Sheesh.
You'd think out of the entire planet a top 3 or 4 pick would contribute well and be worth simply tanking one final 4th qtr for.
Where you teams already down 8 entering that 4th qtr.

Once again, where you are now is not where you’re picking, necessarily. It’s your pre lottery position, with the pick odds that go with it. Charlotte could pick first or as low as 7th if they win the flip, or 8th if they lose the flip.

[exstatic]

Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.

I don’t think, in this draft, that they cared as much where they finished, as long as it was ahead of TOR, and that TOR wasn’t in the top 5. This draft is so variable that we could drop to 6 or7, and still get the top player on the Spurs draft board. We could also win the lottery.

[MultiTroll]

Once again, where you are now is not where you’re picking, necessarily. It’s your pre lottery position, with the pick odds that go with it. Charlotte could pick first or as low as 7th if they win the flip, or 8th if they lose the flip.
Understood.
But even then, why not take +1.8% when you can? What did Charlotte accomplish with the 4th qtr win today?

Hope it wasn't some funky gambling thing. NBA so obviously has a problem with that.

As for the Spurs, it's long since not been about winning.
The #1 objective is doing what Pop wants and new ownership only cares about making money.

[buttsR4rebounding]

I’m not wrong on this. Look in the mirror for wrong. All ties are broken by coin flips, pre lottery, and there is one team in each slot, 1-14, with the odds for that slot in the lottery.

I have $100 that says you are wrong.

[MultiTroll]

Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.
Ariel

[baseline bum]

Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.

I'll take Wemby's 40/20 and the win over NY in a game we'll still remember 20 years from now over a couple of extra lotto balls. Same for the win over Denver with Wemby going for 17 points in 3 minutes. If this was the Cooper Flagg draft or the AJ Dybantsa draft maybe you could convince me otherwise but not in the Risacher draft when Risacher has been playing like a scrub for a month.

[rascal]

I don’t think, in this draft, that they cared as much where they finished, as long as it was ahead of TOR, and that TOR wasn’t in the top 5. This draft is so variable that we could drop to 6 or7, and still get the top player on the Spurs draft board. We could also win the lottery.

Portland sure did care. They started all their deep bench players today.

[duncan2150]

Spurs didn't lose their spot today, they lost it against Denver, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, etc. In situations like these they're nowhere near shameless enough (think Dallas last year, or Portland EVERY year), so they never should have allowed it to come down to the wire.

But today count ? they played all their last games without sochan, vassell, then osman, keldon... It's not their fault if the others teams are bad during this stretch.

[Ariel]

I'll take Wemby's 40/20 and the win over NY in a game we'll still remember 20 years from now over a couple of extra lotto balls. Same for the win over Denver with Wemby going for 17 points in 3 minutes. If this was the Cooper Flagg draft or the AJ Dybantsa draft maybe you could convince me otherwise but not in the Risacher draft when Risacher has been playing like a scrub for a month.
Well... here's to hoping you don't have to change your mind next season. :toast

[scott]

I’m not wrong on this. Look in the mirror for wrong. All ties are broken by coin flips, pre lottery, and there is one team in each slot, 1-14, with the odds for that slot in the lottery.

lol, doubling down on being wrong, even in the face of evidence

[scott]

Since everyone is comparing Edey to Boban...

Edey can only hope to become half the legend that Boban is

1779665211344990242

[baseline bum]

Since everyone is comparing Edey to Boban...

Edey can only hope to become half the legend that Boban is

1779665211344990242


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmIPXZY4Ub8

I wanna draft that ten year old in seven years.

[MultiTroll]

By winning, Charlotte lost 1.8% chance at a top 4 spot. The Spurs lost 5.4% chance at a top 4 spot by winning, so it's not Charlotte who screwed up the worse today.
And / Or

Does this writer have a correct angle?

The Cavs threw last game to manipulate NBA Playoff matchups, and it could haunt them (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/the-cavs-threw-last-game-to-manipulate-nba-playoff-matchups-and-it-could-haunt-them/ar-BB1lC5pd?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=4cf31b8f4428452aaba2cfe99b42e68b&ei=22)

[$pursDynasty]

If you're drafting Sarr you're drafting a backup big. Not sure why we would do that.
That's my question, why can't Sarr and Wemby be in our starting 5. Let Sarr play the stretch 5 Wemby didn't seem to want to play and let Wemby be our stretch 4. Making the Spurs one of the NBA's longest teams regardless of who plays point.

[tbdog]

That's my question, why can't Sarr and Wemby be in our starting 5. Let Sarr play the stretch 5 Wemby didn't seem to want to play and let Wemby be our stretch 4. Making the Spurs one of the NBA's longest teams regardless of who plays point.

I think we have ample evidence that Wemby close to the basket is beneficial for the Spurs. Bassey might be the spurs big body. Mamu showed a passing pf is right piece.

[Limguogolo]

I have a financial question. Given that it is established that the draft is weak, are there major differences in salary amounts depending on the position of the drafted player? I think so. In this case, is it really in the interest of teams to have high picks when this would imply earning a significant rookie contract over a few years on a player who does not have such great value?

[heyheymymy]

I have a financial question. Given that it is established that the draft is weak, are there major differences in salary amounts depending on the position of the drafted player? I think so. In this case, is it really in the interest of teams to have high picks when this would imply earning a significant rookie contract over a few years on a player who does not have such great value?

Here is the Rookie pay scale:


1st: $10,132,300
2nd: $9,065,600
3rd: $8,141,200
4th: $7,340,000
5th: $6,646,800
6th: $6,037,000
7th: $5,511,000
8th: $5,048,800
9th: $4,640,900
10th: $4,408,800

[heyheymymy]

Seeing Cody Williams so low on Pelton's analytics-based rerank of the draft was the truth nuke I needed to hear.

But since it's based on pure numbers without eyes and Cody was playing injured is there any chance that skews the data somewhat?

[Pauleta14]

I have a financial question. Given that it is established that the draft is weak, are there major differences in salary amounts depending on the position of the drafted player? I think so. In this case, is it really in the interest of teams to have high picks when this would imply earning a significant rookie contract over a few years on a player who does not have such great value?

That would make sense to me and could be the main reason they never tanked really, especially the last games

[heyheymymy]

Yeah feels like right after you'd have enough time to look at everyone enough the Spurs starting winning up from the bottom 3.

May be an indicator that they soured on the Sarr, Risacher, Topic top of the class after what they saw. Pretty realistic too, that's life. Tank to get in position for something that never comes to fruition. Reminds me of when Spurs had space but never rented it for deals and couldn't pry one FRP from the advantage. I think that's common with SA and not everything has a story book ending.

I like falling back a little since the top prospects seem so risky this year. No sense in paying a premium for a top 3 with little talent disparity between that range and 6-9ish. In fact some nice stuff around at a discount in that 6-9 range so I love where the Spurs landed in position draft wise and I loved the late season wins as a high note to close the season out. Feels very deliberate when you look at odds, SA falls right around 6-7 and TOR falls around 7-8. Precision drop imho.

[heyheymymy]

Remember, first right of refusal is an asset even if you use it.

[Dejounte]

Yeah feels like right after you'd have enough time to look at everyone enough the Spurs starting winning up from the bottom 3.

May be an indicator that they soured on the Sarr, Risacher, Topic top of the class after what they saw. Pretty realistic too, that's life. Tank to get in position for something that never comes to fruition. Reminds me of when Spurs had space but never rented it for deals and couldn't pry one FRP from the advantage. I think that's common with SA and not everything has a story book ending.

I like falling back a little since the top prospects seem so risky this year. No sense in paying a premium for a top 3 with little talent disparity between that range and 6-9ish. In fact some nice stuff around at a discount in that 6-9 range so I love where the Spurs landed in position draft wise and I loved the late season wins as a high note to close the season out. Feels very deliberate when you look at odds, SA falls right around 6-7 and TOR falls around 7-8. Precision drop imho.

Glad to see they see it my way too on these prospects tbh

[Limguogolo]

Here is the Rookie pay scale:


1st: $10,132,300
2nd: $9,065,600
3rd: $8,141,200
4th: $7,340,000
5th: $6,646,800
6th: $6,037,000
7th: $5,511,000
8th: $5,048,800
9th: $4,640,900
10th: $4,408,800
Thanks. I found that, but it would have to be compared over the years and to other types of contracts. However, the gap doesn't seem that big to me between the first picks and between a big bad contract. The question was rather to know if it was a known fact that certain contracts, even rookie contracts, could be problematic or if even a bad top pick contract could be used as an asset for example in a future trade (or on the contrary, if a top pick in a weak draft was known to have no market value and be a burden in future transactions in the medium term). What's 5M$ between a 1-10 pick while you have some 20M$ bad salaries. Still, it's San Antonio, not GSW, so maybe they think about it.

[Extra Stout]

Maybe the W-L record wasn’t actually being manipulated to land on a specific draft position in one of the worst drafts since 2000. Maybe they just sucked but Wemby got good enough towards the end to overcome that.

[rascal]

Maybe the W-L record wasn’t actually being manipulated to land on a specific draft position in one of the worst drafts since 2000. Maybe they just sucked but Wemby got good enough towards the end to overcome that.

This

Spurs were sitting players but Wemby was too good when he played.
Somehow the Spurs wanted to fall to 5th because they don't value a higher pick because they didn't want to pay a higher salary is just Spurstalk nonsense.

Wemby wanted to play and wasn't on board sitting like what other teams were doing to their starters.

[rascal]

That's my question, why can't Sarr and Wemby be in our starting 5. Let Sarr play the stretch 5 Wemby didn't seem to want to play and let Wemby be our stretch 4. Making the Spurs one of the NBA's longest teams regardless of who plays point.

Sarr will be better than Sochan. You move Sochan to the bench or trade him. sarr gives the Spurs more flexibility with the starting lineup allowong Wemby to move off being strictly a post player which he doesn't want to do.

You can't put Sochan in the low post, he's too small.

[LeBowen]

Sarr will be better than Sochan. You move Sochan to the bench or trade him. sarr gives the Spurs more flexibility with the starting lineup allowong Wemby to move off being strictly a post player which he doesn't want to do.

You can't put Sochan in the low post, he's too small.

Wdym post player? As in post defender?
There's only a few post scorers left in the league. With enough spacing, none will be able to stay on the floor against Wemby except for MVP level players like Jokic and Embiid.
But then again, if Spurs are up against either of those two, you can't have anyone other than Wemby defend them. He's already shown he's better at dealing with Jokic than anyone else in the league.
Wemby should never be moved back to PF.

With that being said, I'd also take Sarr if he's actually the BPA.
Our biggest issue is that everything collapses on defensive end when Wemby sits.
Sarr will surely be a very good defender and rim protector at the very least.
Have him play 18-20mpg off the bench in his rookie year, then we can think about starting him with Wemby if he develops a shot.

If not, just trade him for a better fit.

I'd rather have guaranteed 48 minutes of elite rim protection than any of these no 3, no D point guards.

[The Truth #6]

I think the Spurs were happy to tank at the very end but Victor had no interest in that and they overvalued their sitting players vs Graham and Mamu adding needed skills to play alongside Victor.

[rascal]

I think the Spurs were happy to tank at the very end but Victor had no interest in that and they overvalued their sitting players vs Graham and Mamu adding needed skills to play alongside Victor.

Agree

Spurs even sat Wemby against OKC and got destroyed. Spurs wanted to tank but Wemby wasn't happy sitting.

So Spurs played him against Denver and probaly were even surprised they were able to pull out a win there.

[rascal]

I think the Spurs were happy to tank at the very end but Victor had no interest in that and they overvalued their sitting players vs Graham and Mamu adding needed skills to play alongside Victor.

Agree

Spurs even sat Wemby against OKC and got destroyed. Spurs wanted to tank but Wemby wasn't happy sitting.

So Spurs played him against Denver and probaly were even surprised they were able to pull out a win there.

[Mr. Body]

Thanks. I found that, but it would have to be compared over the years and to other types of contracts. However, the gap doesn't seem that big to me between the first picks and between a big bad contract. The question was rather to know if it was a known fact that certain contracts, even rookie contracts, could be problematic or if even a bad top pick contract could be used as an asset for example in a future trade (or on the contrary, if a top pick in a weak draft was known to have no market value and be a burden in future transactions in the medium term). What's 5M$ between a 1-10 pick while you have some 20M$ bad salaries. Still, it's San Antonio, not GSW, so maybe they think about it.

The future contracts start getting really, really bad for top draft picks. This was a major problem with Ayton in Phoenix, for example. They wavered about resigning him in the first place, and did so thinking they could move him, which proved to be very difficult until they finally dumped him to Portland.

He's not alone, but shows the problem of very high draft picks who don't really pan out. Also the problem of taking a center very high in the draft, a position that isn't the most important in the league.

[Bruno]

Here is the Rookie pay scale:


1st: $10,132,300
2nd: $9,065,600
3rd: $8,141,200
4th: $7,340,000
5th: $6,646,800
6th: $6,037,000
7th: $5,511,000
8th: $5,048,800
9th: $4,640,900
10th: $4,408,800

These are 100% of the 2023-2024 rookie scale. Players are usually paid 120% of the scale and there will be a slight increase for 2024-2025.

With the latest cap projections, first year of the rookie scale should be this year:
#1: $12.6M
#2: $11.3M
#3: $10.1M
#4: $9.1M
#5: $8.3M
#6: $7.5M
#7: $6.9M
#8: $6.3M
#9: $5.8M

And the total salaries for the 4 years of their rookie contract:
#1: $57.2M
#2: $51.2M
#3: $45.4M
#4: $41.5M
#5: $37.6M
#6: $34.1M
#7: $31.2M
#8: $28.6M
#9: $26.3M

[rascal]

The future contracts start getting really, really bad for top draft picks. This was a major problem with Ayton in Phoenix, for example. They wavered about resigning him in the first place, and did so thinking they could move him, which proved to be very difficult until they finally dumped him to Portland.

He's not alone, but shows the problem of very high draft picks who don't really pan out. Also the problem of taking a center very high in the draft, a position that isn't the most important in the league.

If the top draft pick is such a problem name all the number 1 draft picks that were traded away.

[Mr. Body]

If the top draft pick is such a problem name all the number 1 draft picks that were traded away.

Not sure your point here. If you have a shitty top pick then you can't trade them because no one wants them, or you toss them away any way you can. Marvin Bagley, James Wiseman, Anthony Bennett are all in this category. They were completely wasted picks. Other than Bennett, there's a chance the Warriors, for example, might have stuck with Wiseman a bit longer if he wasn't slated to make so much money.

The chances of getting a player in this draft who doesn't match his 1-3 draft slot is extremely high.

[Ariel]

Not sure your point here. If you have a shitty top pick then you can't trade them because no one wants them, or you toss them away any way you can. Marvin Bagley, James Wiseman, Anthony Bennett are all in this category. They were completely wasted picks. Other than Bennett, there's a chance the Warriors, for example, might have stuck with Wiseman a bit longer if he wasn't slated to make so much money.

The chances of getting a player in this draft who doesn't match his 1-3 draft slot is extremely high.
Only the 2 first years of a FRP are guaranteed, if you find yourself in an Anthony Bennet / Wiseman situation, you can simply not pick up the option for the 3rd and 4th year. Also, I don't think the Spurs are that worried about short term salary cap, otherwise they wouldn't have rushed to give Zach Collins such a big extension that turned sour oh so quickly. The only thing that should matter is getting as much talent as possible out of whatever picks the Spurs have, I'd rather have them pick sooner than later (and hoping someone else screws up).

[Ariel]

Since everyone is comparing Edey to Boban...

Edey can only hope to become half the legend that Boban is

1779665211344990242
Boban hasn't been a serious basketball player for a long time, if not for his personality he'd have been out of the league long ago. Edey may be flawed, but the guy means business. If I had another non lottery pick I might take a flier on him, in the right scheme he could be useful.

[BatManu20]

Potential Spurs target if he’s there early in the 2nd. 6’11 with a 7’4 wingspan. Still only 18 years old. Needs some time in the G-League, but could be a prospect worth taking a chance on, especially in a weak draft.

1779900749704740990


Tp9foNnUQYk?si=7OauI8l-FKpUwEnV

[rjv]

no one has any idea whether or not the spurs intended to tank at the end or not.

[onechance87]

no one has any idea whether or not the spurs intended to tank at the end or not.

maybe they did...But wemby wasnt gonna let it happen.And you cant admit to your team the goal is to lose lol
Just gotta sit players out and or do weird rotations.I also think they didnt want raptors to pass em up.

[rascal]

Only the 2 first years of a FRP are guaranteed, if you find yourself in an Anthony Bennet / Wiseman situation, you can simply not pick up the option for the 3rd and 4th year. Also, I don't think the Spurs are that worried about short term salary cap, otherwise they wouldn't have rushed to give Zach Collins such a big extension that turned sour oh so quickly. The only thing that should matter is getting as much talent as possible out of whatever picks the Spurs have, I'd rather have them pick sooner than later (and hoping someone else screws up).

Yes, always better to have the more valuable draft pick and that is the higher pick.

[scott]

1701340203216932936

This is a great reminder of why we shouldn't pay too much mind to prospect rankings a year or more out into the future. At best, only half of these guys are still in contention for a top-10 pick.

[spurraider21]

i cant get my mind around just how flat the top of this draft is, to the point where you can be talked into just about anybody

its also nuts how so many of these top prospects are such bad shooters. also wonder if i am overthinking holland... top percentile athlete who gives a shit about defense and can explode off the dribble, not a terrible passer.

whether we wound up with #1 and #7 or #8 and #9, i think you could put all these names in a hat and random draw 2 for the spurs and i wouldnt think they would be insane, unthinkable outcomes. other than the wide expectation sarr goes top 2-3, dont think theres much separation if at all between risacher, dillingham, buzelis, sheppard, topic, castle, holland, even onto guys like clingan, knecht, williams, collier

im not saying i value those guys evenly, just what seems to be the consensus out there as to what would be a reach/steal

[Limguogolo]

Actually, no one can yet predict whether the draft will actually be bad or not. Sometimes it's enough for two or three guys to stand out, even two or three years later, to reassess the quality of a draft. Remember the doubts about Doncic. No one can predict how a player will acclimatize and especially how a team will trust him.

Roles are constantly changing and sometimes, if you fit a role exactly, it can help you shine in this specific role. It's not because there won't be any big stars in this draft that there can't be excellent players with perfectly defined roles, essential in a team.

You're talking about the three points, I'm talking about the ones I know: all the French players (apart from Armel Traoré, Victor's former teammate and brother of a possible future first pick in 2025, an athletic defendeur) are potentially excellent 3 and D: Sarr , Risacher, Salaün, Dadiet, Ajinça.

(And the Spurs might even have an interest in signing a youngster that no one wanted to draft last year because of his size, Nadir Hifi who can dynamite an attack on three or four minutes coming off the bench. He is a defensive dog despite his size.)

The problem is less the general quality of a draft than the disproportionate expectations compared to lottery picks. Not having stars does not mean that there will not be excellent complementary players who will find their place on a (starting) roster in the years to come. But of course, maybe that's why with a draft like this, it might be better to have a pick 15 than a first pick... ("Oh, no, no, no, please, do not bother, keep your first pick, I will take this one. Yeah, my beautiful 20th, my precious... role player.")

We can't have Robinson and Duncan every time. Stick to Duncan and Boris Diaw.

[Mugen]

The only things I'm (fairly) confident about is:
-Sarr is going top 3
-Both Castle & Cllingan are going top 8

Pretty good news about Sarr/Clingan since the Spurs in theory shouldn't draft either one and their pick is likely to be in the 6-8 range tbh. One of Topic/Dilly/Castle/Sheppard + Wings (Holland/Risacher/Williams) should fall.

[BackHome]

In this draft if I would be extremely happy with getting someone like Avery, Chuck Person, Big Dog, Bowen, Belinelli, Kerr. Now the draft in 2025 is where we hopefully get a guy like Manu, Horry, Elliot, Jackson

[Mugen]

i cant get my mind around just how flat the top of this draft is, to the point where you can be talked into just about anybody

its also nuts how so many of these top prospects are such bad shooters. also wonder if i am overthinking holland... top percentile athlete who gives a shit about defense and can explode off the dribble, not a terrible passer.

whether we wound up with #1 and #7 or #8 and #9, i think you could put all these names in a hat and random draw 2 for the spurs and i wouldnt think they would be insane, unthinkable outcomes. other than the wide expectation sarr goes top 2-3, dont think theres much separation if at all between risacher, dillingham, buzelis, sheppard, topic, castle, holland, even onto guys like clingan, knecht, williams, collier

im not saying i value those guys evenly, just what seems to be the consensus out there as to what would be a reach/steal

Holland at 6-8 would be great value tbh. He's got as much upside as anybody in this draft.

[heyheymymy]

And the total salaries for the 4 years of their rookie contract:
#1: $57.2M
#2: $51.2M
#3: $45.4M
#4: $41.5M
#5: $37.6M
#6: $34.1M
#7: $31.2M
#8: $28.6M
#9: $26.3M

This really hits home perhaps why the Spurs won up towards the end of the season. Thanks for the more accurate figures.

#3: $45.4M vs. #6: $34.1M after four years pay. So there's about $11MM difference between say a Risacher/Topic at #3 and say a Castle at #6. Question is, would there be $11MM worth of improvement in play between Risacher/Topic at #3 and Castle at #6 and I think you could argue no.

[scott]

If the Spurs are tanking draft position because they are looking to save money on rookie deals, then we have bigger problems with the FO.

[heyheymymy]

Almost tempted to double up on guards in 2024 if the TOR conveys and then go after two wings in the 2025 draft.

Looking at 2025 I quite like the available 6'8" to 6'9" ish players. Guys like Flagg or Bailey could be a long term target at wing/PF better than the apparently weaker options from the 2024 class Like Risacher, Buzelis (6'11"), or Williams etc.

PGs or combo guards from the 2024 class are at least seemingly more passable than the 2024 wings/PF. Would be thrilled with any of the following, in order: Sheppard, Castle, Dillingham, McCain, Carter, and later, Carrington, Kolek.

Really wonder if SA has any interest in McCain as that Patty Mills role and Spurs really do need good shooting. McCain is a proven commodity, last seen shooting lights out in the Elite Eight loss. 5-11 from 3PT, 11-11 FT in a bad loss to NC State. McCain, who had two 30-point games during Duke's run to the Elite Eight, scored 84 points during the NCAA Tournament. tankathon has him at #17 but Pelton shows McCain in the late lottery at #12 so not entirely inappropriate at around 7-9 with the TOR.

McCain was the EIGHTH top scorer in the entire NCAA Tournament.

Something like Castle/McCain would balance the PG corp with one traditional floor general PG in Jones, one pure shooting SG/PG in McCain and one defensive tools PG in Wesley. Plus you have athleticism and defense with a SG/PG in Castle between Vassell and Branham.

Get something in 2025 draft like Edgecomb (6'5" but still) and I would bundle every pick in the stockpile to grab Ace Bailey and Spurs would be loaded like OKC.

[sfernald]

League is getting very tricky and good at making it not obvious. Told Spurs just get to #5. That’s the magic number for getting the number one pick this year. Stern working his magic.z

[heyheymymy]

If the Spurs are tanking draft position because they are looking to save money on rookie deals, then we have bigger problems with the FO.

Rich people clipping coupons but there is the old cliche of how do you think I got so rich lol Spurs are frugal always have seemed to be imho you can tell by their moves.

[Mr. Body]

This really hits home perhaps why the Spurs won up towards the end of the season. Thanks for the more accurate figures.

#3: $45.4M vs. #6: $34.1M after four years pay. So there's about $11MM difference between say a Risacher/Topic at #3 and say a Castle at #6. Question is, would there be $11MM worth of improvement in play between Risacher/Topic at #3 and Castle at #6 and I think you could argue no.

Absolutely not, I'd say, and I've been ringing the bell about the dangers of getting a top pick this year for a while now. It's completely there. You don't want to draft a Risacher at 2 if you can get a similarly ranked player at 7 and you're just not thinking straight and are confused if you think otherwise. This is NOT a draft where you want a top 3 pick. It's going to fuck you up in the long run.

[Mr. Body]

Holland at 6-8 would be great value tbh. He's got as much upside as anybody in this draft.

Ron Holland has remarkably similar production to Kuminga at the same point coming out of Ignite. Same rebounds, assists, steals, more blocks, exactly the same shitty shooting.

They both have bad game sense and a ton to learn how to play. Kuminga is finally sort of getting there entering into his fourth season. Of course the comparison is shallow, but provocative. Would I take a Kuminga-adjacent player in this draft? I would really consider it, although I think the longterm problems will become significant over time.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ron-holland--jonathan-kuminga

[spurraider21]

Ron Holland has remarkably similar production to Kuminga at the same point coming out of Ignite. Same rebounds, assists, steals, more blocks, exactly the same shitty shooting.

They both have bad game sense and a ton to learn how to play. Kuminga is finally sort of getting there entering into his fourth season. Of course the comparison is shallow, but provocative. Would I take a Kuminga-adjacent player in this draft? I would really consider it, although I think the longterm problems will become significant over time.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ron-holland--jonathan-kuminga
you can also comp him with jaylen brown as far as athletic and skill profiles coming out

[CorrectCrusader]

Blows my mind NBA players can't shoot threes. That should be a universal skill in todays game.

[scott]

1780043580091797909

Not sure I've ever seen this guy discussed in 216 pages, but... he's 100% focused on the NBA now.

[spurraider21]

ivisic transferring to arkansas to follow coach cal

i really liked him as a second round option as a nice backup C

i think he ends up a lotto pick next year

[Degoat]

Cody Williams is kinda growing on me tbh hope to hear positive things from workouts/interviews. Probably a stupid comparison but he kinda reminds me last year of Brandon Miller

This is such a hard draft to evaluate tho

[Uriel]

If the Spurs win the lottery again and draft Risacher, then somehow Topic falls to #7 and the Raptors’ pick conveys, I will cry tears of joy.

PG - Topic
SG - Vassell
SF - Risacher
PF - Sochan
C - Wemby

That starting 5 would dominate the league for years to come :cry

[sfernald]

If the Spurs win the lottery again and draft Risacher, then somehow Topic falls to #7 and the Raptors’ pick conveys, I will cry tears of joy.

PG - Topic
SG - Vassell
SF - Risacher
PF - Sochan
C - Wemby

That starting 5 would dominate the league for years to come :cry

The amazing thing is they could end up with pick #7 and get Toronto’s pick at #8 and still end up with Risacher and Topic. Who knows where the hell anyone is getting drafted in this one!?

[Kevin]

If the Spurs win the lottery again and draft Risacher, then somehow Topic falls to #7 and the Raptors’ pick conveys, I will cry tears of joy.

PG - Topic
SG - Vassell
SF - Risacher
PF - Sochan
C - Wemby

That starting 5 would dominate the league for years to come :cry

Three guys who cannot shoot as of today and Vassell is streaky as hell as a jump shooter. Spacing Spacing Spacing.

[BatManu20]

If the Spurs win the lottery again and draft Risacher, then somehow Topic falls to #7 and the Raptors’ pick conveys, I will cry tears of joy.

PG - Topic
SG - Vassell
SF - Risacher
PF - Sochan
C - Wemby

That starting 5 would dominate the league for years to come :cry


Spacing would be atrocious with this lineup tbh. Not to mention the glaring lack of defense with this backcourt.

[BatManu20]

1780230266750992892

[Kevin]

Still think there a pretty good chance Topic's long term position might be PF in the NBA. His lack of athleticism and outside shooting doesn't bode well for a PG and he already 6'7 and could keep growing. His short comings as a player are less problematic at PF and you can still deploy him as a point forward like Diaw or Draymond on offense.

[The Truth #6]

Still think there a pretty good chance Topic's long term position might be PF in the NBA. His lack of athleticism and outside shooting doesn't bode well for a PG and he already 6'7 and could keep growing. His short comings as a player are less problematic at PF and you can still deploy him as a point forward like Diaw or Draymond on offense.

Hmmm.

[Mugen]

ivisic transferring to arkansas to follow coach cal

i really liked him as a second round option as a nice backup C

i think he ends up a lotto pick next year

Idk why he's not declaring tbh. Cal played him like 10mins a game and next year's draft is deeper. I thought he had a shot at being a late 1st this year. Doubt he moves up much more from that next season tbh.

[Mugen]

Still think there a pretty good chance Topic's long term position might be PF in the NBA. His lack of athleticism and outside shooting doesn't bode well for a PG and he already 6'7 and could keep growing. His short comings as a player are less problematic at PF and you can still deploy him as a point forward like Diaw or Draymond on offense.

There's almost 0% chance Topic becomes anything but a lead ball handler in the league. If he can't make it as that then he's out of the league in < 5 years tbh.

Guys like Amen/Ausar can play PF/C because they're at 99th percentile athletes even in the NBA. Topic is not that :lol

[Mugen]

I'm moved Risacher way down the big board tbh. Being absolutely horrible from shooting (and scoring in general) for the last few months while the spotlight is on him is a massive red flag IMO.

[spurraider21]

Idk why he's not declaring tbh. Cal played him like 10mins a game and next year's draft is deeper. I thought he had a shot at being a late 1st this year. Doubt he moves up much more from that next season tbh.
he will move up when he starts playing over double the minutes

[spurraider21]

There's almost 0% chance Topic becomes anything but a lead ball handler in the league. If he can't make it as that then he's out of the league in < 5 years tbh.

Guys like Amen/Ausar can play PF/C because they're at 99th percentile athletes even in the NBA. Topic is not that :lol
the more and go back and re-watch topic, the more i buy his ability to blow by guys, drive in either direction, get into the paint, etc

but im also selling on his jump shooting. yes hes an excellent FT shooter but he needs to completely re-invent his jump shooting mechanics. he's not close there imo. its not like when we saw (and see) wemby shoot poor percentages but have a crisp form that may just need moderate tweaks here and there.

[rascal]

the more and go back and re-watch topic, the more i buy his ability to blow by guys, drive in either direction, get into the paint, etc

but im also selling on his jump shooting. yes hes an excellent FT shooter but he needs to completely re-invent his jump shooting mechanics. he's not close there imo. its not like when we saw (and see) wemby shoot poor percentages but have a crisp form that may just need moderate tweaks here and there.

Topic seems to rush his shot too much and just throws it up without shooting it with consistent form.

[baseline bum]

This really hits home perhaps why the Spurs won up towards the end of the season. Thanks for the more accurate figures.

#3: $45.4M vs. #6: $34.1M after four years pay. So there's about $11MM difference between say a Risacher/Topic at #3 and say a Castle at #6. Question is, would there be $11MM worth of improvement in play between Risacher/Topic at #3 and Castle at #6 and I think you could argue no.

I don't see it. They wanted to tank for draft position badly enough that they shut Vassell and Keldon down for the season and held Victor out of the OKC and Detroit games. It just backfired on them because Victor wasn't down for tanking.

[baseline bum]

the more and go back and re-watch topic, the more i buy his ability to blow by guys, drive in either direction, get into the paint, etc

but im also selling on his jump shooting. yes hes an excellent FT shooter but he needs to completely re-invent his jump shooting mechanics. he's not close there imo. its not like when we saw (and see) wemby shoot poor percentages but have a crisp form that may just need moderate tweaks here and there.

Really wish he at least had a midrange shot. Can't say I'm too excited about a PG with no outside shot and no in between game who made his living at the rim against plumbers and Ukraine war conscripts in the ABA.

[ginobilized]

I could see Topic translating to the NBA level, honestly. The knee injury is the question for me. It seems much worse than they let on, originally. Spurs would need some deep intel before selecting him, I believe. His inclusion on mock draft boards seems based on his high rank in December. In my mind, he's fallen considerably.

Castle is intriguing to me. He has that intangible element that might make him a great NBA player eventually. We could use a solid defensive guard, too. He might go top 3-4 in this weird draft.

Dink Pate's fate for a draft waiver really has my interest piqued. He might be a couple of years away from contributing, though.

Draft workouts and the combine will likely be the determining factors as teams re-shuffle their draft boards.

If we lose Mamu, I hope we gain another big with smarts like that. His style seems so compatible with Wemby. I don't see one in this draft, but, I haven't really scoured the tapes, yet.

[buttsR4rebounding]

There was no CIA Pop move to win late to reduce payroll. Quite frankly, that is one of the more moronic takes on this board. If there is a wish to reduce payroll you can always trade down and pick up additional assets. Some people feel the need to over analyze a fart in the wind.

[Bruno]

https://twitter.com/Urbodo/status/1780164731459793114

Topic should be back on April 22 for the second game of Adriatic league playoffs.
Logically both Partizan and Red Star should reach the final that will be a BO5. It will be a great opportunity to see what Topic can do at a higher level.

[onechance87]

There was no CIA Pop move to win late to reduce payroll. Quite frankly, that is one of the more moronic takes on this board. If there is a wish to reduce payroll you can always trade down and pick up additional assets. Some people feel the need to over analyze a fart in the wind.

i mean yea....but if we trade down,And a player we could of drafted turns out to be a star like topic dilly or rissacher or whoever.
It will make our front office look like morons.

[Mugen]

https://twitter.com/Urbodo/status/1780164731459793114

Topic should be back on April 22 for the second game of Adriatic league playoffs.
Logically both Partizan and Red Star should reach the final that will be a BO5. It will be a great opportunity to see what Topic can do at a higher level.
baseline bum get in here

[rascal]

baseline bum get in here

He isn't back yet.

[CGD]

1780230266750992892

Seen him fall to the second round in some mock, which is something to watch

[buttsR4rebounding]

i mean yea....but if we trade down,And a player we could of drafted turns out to be a star like topic dilly or rissacher or whoever.
It will make our front office look like morons.

No one makes decisions based on saving face if they screw up in the future.

[spurraider21]

Dunn is fascinating but tbh i dont see him as anything other than a micro-ball center. which hey, as a 3rd center behind Vic/Zollins wouldnt be the worst thing

[JuneJive]

He could work well as a 3-4 on defense / 5 on offense.

But boy, does he need something that he can lean on on offense.

[rascal]

I'm confident Topic will be the Spurs pick.

[baseline bum]

baseline bum get in here

I don't give a fuck, Euroleague is over. Would be chickenshit to come back to play ABA against a bunch of scrub ass white boys.

[LeBowen]

I don't give a fuck, Euroleague is over. Would be chickenshit to come back to play ABA against a bunch of scrub ass white boys.

Quick look at the standings puts things into perspective.
Topic's team finished Euroleague with 11-23, 16th out of 18 teams.
They're 22-4 in ABA league.

Says enough, tbh.
Maybe not NBA to G-league difference, but not that far from it.

[BatManu20]

If Topic sucks in his return, the narrative will be that he’s just rusty. If he plays well, it’ll be “He came back to silence the haters.” Win-win for him tbh.

[baseline bum]

I'm confident Topic will be the Spurs pick.

I hope only if they fall to like 7, or take him with the Toronto pick if it conveys. Don't like drafting a guy too scared to play Euroleague.

[baseline bum]

If Topic sucks in his return, the narrative will be that he’s just rusty. If he plays well, it’ll be “He came back to silence the haters.” Win-win for him tbh.

He can't silence shit by going to the scrub league while avoiding Euroleague after looking trash there for a game and a half.

[scott]

Quick look at the standings puts things into perspective.
Topic's team finished Euroleague with 11-23, 16th out of 18 teams.
They're 22-4 in ABA league.

Says enough, tbh.
Maybe not NBA to G-league difference, but not that far from it.

I'm shocked to learn that a bunch of North Macedonian goat farmers aren't the pinnacle of basketball excellence.

[baseline bum]

Blech, he probably is near the top of the Spurs board though for his size, just like Primo's scrub ass.

[Mugen]

The Savior tbh.

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[BackHome]

I don't give a fuck, Euroleague is over. Would be chickenshit to come back to play ABA against a bunch of scrub ass white boys.

I guess it's all perspective because I think his ABA team could probably beat 99% of College teams

[LeBowen]

I'm shocked to learn that a bunch of North Macedonian goat farmers aren't the pinnacle of basketball excellence.

Fom my understanding, teams that play both Euroleague and ABA don't play their best players in ABA most of the time.
Topic's team would most likely be able to have 100% winrate in ABA if they tried.

Him playing there for the strongest team doesn't mean much.
Only a handful of best Euroleague players are good for the NBA and it's ruleset, ABA league is way below.
I understand Topic is just 18, but I've copy/pasted that same post over and over again about no European point guards other than Rubio and Doncic making it in the NBA over the past 15 years. None.

While it's true that FIBA rules make it difficult to score and require players to have higher bball IQ, those rules also help mask lack of athleticism.
Topic isn't a bad defender because he's young, he's a bad defender because he's disgustingly slow-footed and can't stay in front of anyone.
If he's bad under FIBA ruleset, he'd easily be the worst defender in the NBA.

And he can't shoot. Not even his midrange is reliable, as already mentioned.
He could become a solid NBA point guard, but there's absolutely no way he ever becomes a star player.
What's the point of drafting him with a top5 pick then? To wait three years before he becomes a servicable starter?

There's just way too many variables that would have to allign for him to be worth the pick.
Athleticism will never be there, he'd have to improve both his defense and his shot.
Even though I don't think guards with no range have a place in modern NBA, I'd rather gamble on one of those athletic freaks to develop a shot.

People in here are shitting on Trae fucking Young, but want a player who won't ever be any better defensively and has maybe 5% chance to come close to Trae's offensive output.

[rascal]

I hope only if they fall to like 7, or take him with the Toronto pick if it conveys. Don't like drafting a guy too scared to play Euroleague.

I'm not high on him either. Rather take Castle in the Spurs range of pick.

[rascal]

Blech, he probably is near the top of the Spurs board though for his size, just like Primo's scrub ass.

Yep, It wouldn't even be a surprise if the Spurs reach for Topic if they win the first pick worrying he won't be there for them at 7 with the Toronto pick.

[baseline bum]

I'm not high on him either. Rather take Castle in the Spurs range of pick.

Agreed, at least I know Castle gives a shit. Topic shutting it down for three months until he can statpad in a weak league is such a horrible look.

[rascal]

Agreed, at least I know Castle gives a shit. Topic shutting it down for three months until he can statpad in a weak league is such a horrible look.

Kind of strange Topic is suddenly good to play when reports had him supposedly being back weeks ago.

He may play now just to show he isn't injured and good to go for the draft.

[BatManu20]

1780347167728619928

[spurraider21]

ive been warming to holland tbh, but would feel much more comfortable taking him if we got the raptors pick as well so we could also add one of the sharpshooters

[PhantomDashCam]

1780347167728619928

Ron Holland's quote is hilarious.
The 'almost' must be referring to the Ignite, where he and his prodigious teammates ineptitude are partly responsible for the NBA shuttering the program altogether. :lol

[AFBlue]

In on Jakobe Walter for the second pick from TOR if it conveys.

[spurraider21]

In on Jakobe Walter for the second pick from TOR if it conveys.
if hes a good shooter then why dont he shoot good

https://mministry.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/moneyball_21.jpg

[scott]

All Moneyball references are winners in my book

[The Truth #6]

Season is over. The draft has already been talked to death. Sigh?

[TrainOfThought5]

Blech, he probably is near the top of the Spurs board though for his size, just like Primo's scrub ass.

Oof. This truth just punched me in the chest. I want Rob Thrillingham and Cody Williams, personally. Safe picks, that will produce sooner, rather than later, rather than never.

[heyheymymy]

Agreed, at least I know Castle gives a shit. Topic shutting it down for three months until he can statpad in a weak league is such a horrible look.

100% agree. I want proven commodities not mystery box players. This is like Shaedon Sharpe all over again.

[heyheymymy]

Love the Moneyball references and such a good meme with apt parallels imo

Was wild to see Ja'Kobe on Pelton's list top ten. What good is all the potential for Walter if it largely goes untapped? This is like Keyonte all over again. George's numbers show a lot of time and work are necessary imo but it's early still and I like Keyonte hope he does well but concerning numbers shooting, orchestrating the offense and defensively apparently. Gotta figure that's also what's in store for whomever goes with Walter this year.

[Degoat]

Haven’t watched a ton of Ja’kobe walters but seems at a short glance he could be this years Victor Oladipo

[SpursBills]

Pelton probably likes Walter because he's young, gets up a huge volume of 3s with a good FT%, and gets to the line at an excellent rate. He shoots a ton of his 3s off movement too so it's not like he's got an easy shot diet. Not a whole lot of freshmen in recent memory that can do all that, so there is an argument that he has the potential to be a great offensive weapon down the road.

Personally, I'm not a fan. Average SG sized, hasn't shown any passing chops, horrible defensive metrics. Really limited value if you're trying to pick him high

[ambchang]

I would be shocked if topic ever turns out to be a star. Jose Calderon is likely his ceiling. Based on the few highlights I’ve seen.

[TD 21]

I've said it before, but Holland does seem Spurs like, right down to being rated significantly higher entering the season.

As much as his shot is highly suspect, the same could be said for every top wing prospect in the draft to varying degrees.

[Knoxxx]

A couple things I don’t want are unathletic or undersized players. Unathletic raises concerns about ability to defend and undersized raises concerns on both ends of the court as well as game translating to the NBA.

That said, Dillingham if he can play some PG, Buzelis/Risacher, Edey (backup C) would be a decent haul.

We are pretty lucky though, is Sarr a no brainer for Spurs if lightning strikes yet again and we pick #1 overall?

[The Truth #6]

I've said it before, but Holland does seem Spurs like, right down to being rated significantly higher entering the season.

As much as his shot is highly suspect, the same could be said for every top wing prospect in the draft to varying degrees.

He plays hard. He's learning to play on ball. He's got a long way to go but likely won't bust, rather will have a low ceiling if he doesn't pull it together. As a Spurs prospect he would have to survive under Pop, and for a sort of low BBIQ player, that could be a concern. But if he's confident, Pop could also love him. He will likely be available so it will be interesting to see how the FO sees him.

[scott]

In “thread the needle” news - Atlanta moves one step closer to threading the needle with their SAC pick (protected 1-14) with the Kings win over GSW. If the Kings beat the Pels, the Hawks will get a pick in the mid to late teens.

[heyheymymy]

In “thread the needle” news - Atlanta moves one step closer to threading the needle with their SAC pick (protected 1-14) with the Kings win over GSW. If the Kings beat the Pels, the Hawks will get a pick in the mid to late teens.

shit that would be a heist with their own ATL pick at 10 too.

Something to monitor. Would greatly influence the 2025 roster that will be determining Spurs ATL 2025 FRP value.

[onechance87]

In “thread the needle” news - Atlanta moves one step closer to threading the needle with their SAC pick (protected 1-14) with the Kings win over GSW. If the Kings beat the Pels, the Hawks will get a pick in the mid to late teens.

well damn

[itzsoweezee]

shit that would be a heist with their own ATL pick at 10 too.

Something to monitor. Would greatly influence the 2025 roster that will be determining Spurs ATL 2025 FRP value.

If they’re willing to trade those picks. That front office seems to be pretty incompetent, though. They seem like a team more likely to get worse next year rather than better.

[Dejounte]

He plays hard. He's learning to play on ball. He's got a long way to go but likely won't bust, rather will have a low ceiling if he doesn't pull it together. As a Spurs prospect he would have to survive under Pop, and for a sort of low BBIQ player, that could be a concern. But if he's confident, Pop could also love him. He will likely be available so it will be interesting to see how the FO sees him.

I don’t know if Ron is good enough to overtake Champagnie. Being realistic, Vassell isn’t going anywhere and Ron isn’t a good fit with him if he doesn’t become a good shooter. Seems like his favorite thing to do is barrel his way to the basket which is a type of player we’ve seen already in Keldon. Yeah, he might be twice the player Keldon is, but again, is he able to prove quickly that he’s a more impactful player than Champagnie? People like to shit on Champagnie but he plays his role to the T and that’s likely what the Spurs are going to expect from any rookie that comes in— can they play within a team concept and be trusted to do that as they progressively gain the team’s trust with each glimpse of lottery talent they show? Everybody earns their touches on this team through playing as a role player first, even Wemby did.

and yes, the other wings in this draft (even Zaccharie) aren’t that much better as shooters than Ron, but they have size. It makes sense to me that when all things are equal (or not significantly much different, in terms of talent), that you go for the guy with size.

[CGD]

When does the combine start?

[BackHome]

The NBA Lottery is May 12th
The NBA Combine is May 13-19

[stnick2261]

quite simply... I'm going down Tankathon by prospects' Assists per 36min.

If we somehow ended up drafting:
Topic (7.1 a/36)
Dillingham (6.0 a/36)
Kolek (8.4 a/36)
& Nunez (7.9 a/36)

... and ended up with 4 PGs just to see who would pan out... I would be perfectly happy. Make sure we get the PG of the future to pair with Wemby and trade (or release) the rest. Focus on SF/PF in '25

[The Truth #6]

quite simply... I'm going down Tankathon by prospects' Assists per 36min.

If we somehow ended up drafting:
Topic (7.1 a/36)
Dillingham (6.0 a/36)
Kolek (8.4 a/36)
& Nunez (7.9 a/36)

... and ended up with 4 PGs just to see who would pan out... I would be perfectly happy. Make sure we get the PG of the future to pair with Wemby and trade (or release) the rest. Focus on SF/PF in '25

Seems like not enough minutes for four backup point guards. Do they fight to the death a la Thunderdome to see who wins out?

[stnick2261]

Seems like not enough minutes for four backup point guards. Do they fight to the death a la Thunderdome to see who wins out?

I wouldn't want them to only play like 5 minutes in a game.... but between gleague, practice, and taking turns getting like 30min in a game here and there, I would just hope for a quick analysis of who's the best.

[heyheymymy]

Can drafted stash rights play in Summer League?

Or can you switch a traditional contract over into stash rights at a later point?

[spurraider21]

I don’t know if Ron is good enough to overtake Champagnie. Being realistic, Vassell isn’t going anywhere and Ron isn’t a good fit with him if he doesn’t become a good shooter. Seems like his favorite thing to do is barrel his way to the basket which is a type of player we’ve seen already in Keldon. Yeah, he might be twice the player Keldon is, but again, is he able to prove quickly that he’s a more impactful player than Champagnie? People like to shit on Champagnie but he plays his role to the T and that’s likely what the Spurs are going to expect from any rookie that comes in— can they play within a team concept and be trusted to do that as they progressively gain the team’s trust with each glimpse of lottery talent they show? Everybody earns their touches on this team through playing as a role player first, even Wemby did.

and yes, the other wings in this draft (even Zaccharie) aren’t that much better as shooters than Ron, but they have size. It makes sense to me that when all things are equal (or not significantly much different, in terms of talent), that you go for the guy with size.
shampenny hit 36.5% of his 3's this year. now if he was an on-ball player who also took 3's to create that threat, 36.5% is a fine number. but he was out there basically as the 3pt specialist of the starting unit, and for that role, he was subpar. the idea of shampenny is better than the player he is. but this draft is weak when it comes to finding wings that can shoot well. risacher has bigger question marks now than he did 2-3 months ago when he played himself into the near consensus #1 or #2 overall pick. cody williams has a high % but feels like a mirage given the extremely low volume. otherwise you have Knecht as a plus shooter, but there are questions about whether he can survive at anything but guard with his size/athleticism (combine will be a big indicator for him). he's also not really a physical defender. theres Furphy but he's also not a great shooter.

so yeah, if you want somebody to fill shampenny's role, risacher is the only rookie i'd feel confident in. but if the talent disparity is big enough, you may have to live with it. especially if we also add a good shooting point guard like dilly/sheppard to help w/ the spacing

[Silverheart80]

My top two choices for the Spurs are Sarr and Castle. Love the defensive abilities of these two more than anyone else in this draft.

Much as I'd like an NBA-ready, long, athletic 45% 3-point shooter who can defend all five positions, that guy doesn't exist in this draft. Sarr and Castle are not reliable perimeter shooters yet, but neither looks like a bust there either. Sarr seems to play more comfortably as a wing than as a center. That fits well with VW on both ends. Would take my chances giving him time to develop a reliable shot because his defensive skillset is so solid. Also -- if he keeps honing that turnaround fadeaway jumper above the free-throw line that he seems to like, he's gonna be a big problem.

I like Castle's perimeter defense, plus his maturity at a young age. Only played one year of college ball, but plays with high IQ. Spurs need more of that. His 3-point stroke needs coaching but his game reminds me of a young Jimmy Butler. I've said all year that Vassell is the weakest link in the Spurs' current future plan, but I think we're stuck with him this year, at the very least. My hope is Castle eventually replaces him.

[CGD]

The NBA Lottery is May 12th
The NBA Combine is May 13-19

Thanks— so we really won’t have new info on these guys until then. I guess with the exception of maybe the Europeans whose leagues are still going.

[Spurs Brazil]

New ESPN mock
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39945119/2024-nba-mock-draft-team-analysis-all-30-first-round-picks

5. San Antonio Spurs
Nikola Topic
Mega MIS
PG
Age: 18.6

The Spurs have an opening at point guard and will likely study the fit of both Topic and Dillingham, who is already off the board in this scenario. Pairing Victor Wembanyama with a highly unselfish, creative passer such as Topic would be attractive, as he also has excellent size to play in the backcourt with other guards. His defensive shortcomings might not appear as glaring with Wembanyama behind him, but improving his perimeter shooting will be key. -- Givony

[baseline bum]

New ESPN mock
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39945119/2024-nba-mock-draft-team-analysis-all-30-first-round-picks

5. San Antonio Spurs
Nikola Topic
Mega MIS
PG
Age: 18.6

The Spurs have an opening at point guard and will likely study the fit of both Topic and Dillingham, who is already off the board in this scenario. Pairing Victor Wembanyama with a highly unselfish, creative passer such as Topic would be attractive, as he also has excellent size to play in the backcourt with other guards. His defensive shortcomings might not appear as glaring with Wembanyama behind him, but improving his perimeter shooting will be key. -- Givony

Jeez he has Clingan going #3.

https://archive.is/cQLFo

Hopefully if the Spurs end up at #5 and draft Topic they'll at least have the Toronto pick convey so they can draft a forward too.

[objective]

Can drafted stash rights play in Summer League?

Or can you switch a traditional contract over into stash rights at a later point?

Yes, a couple of prior 'stash' picks played in summer league but never signed a real contract with SA. Sanikidze did. Ryan Richards did then a few years later I think signed a camp deal he had no hope of making good on.

But often stash guys have national team obligations, or are under contract with teams who won't allow it, or just won't do it without having an NBA contract in hand. Hanga, Milutinov, and Dangubic never played in summer league as I recall.

[alfahdlan]

Why I thought one way or the other, Spurs will select Reed Sheppard? I will base first my premise in the article “What we learned from the Spurs win over the Suns by Jacob Douglas dated March 26, 2024” of Poundingtherock.com. Douglas opined that “. . . the Spurs are better when they play fast . . .As they look at what to do in the offseason, more players that space the floor and make life easier in the half-court should be a priority.”
First, we can jumpstart a fastbreak (playing fast) through defensive rebounds, blocks and steals. Reed has quick hands as he has 3.1 steals per 36 min. and excel in throwing long outlet pass. He is a decent shot blocker for his size at 0.9 block per 36 min . Of course, Rebounds can be met by other picks.
Second, Reed can space the floor as he averaged 52.1 in 3P% and has a true shooting % of 69.9
Third, Reed is a dog. He came to college as number 23 prospect behind Collier, Holland, Edwards, Wagner, Buzelis, Bradshaw, Williams, Walter, MCCain, Castle, Dillingham before he earned the coveted freshman of the year award through constant improvement.
I’m not as good as various award-giving bodies (ESPN, CBS Sports, Basketball Writers, Basketball Coaches) but there must be a reason why Reed was their choice as Freshman of the Year 2024.
I would be content if Reed is the choice in the draft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8ICoAijE8E

[Ariel]

I don’t know if Ron is good enough to overtake Champagnie. Being realistic, Vassell isn’t going anywhere and Ron isn’t a good fit with him if he doesn’t become a good shooter. Seems like his favorite thing to do is barrel his way to the basket which is a type of player we’ve seen already in Keldon. Yeah, he might be twice the player Keldon is, but again, is he able to prove quickly that he’s a more impactful player than Champagnie? People like to shit on Champagnie but he plays his role to the T and that’s likely what the Spurs are going to expect from any rookie that comes in— can they play within a team concept and be trusted to do that as they progressively gain the team’s trust with each glimpse of lottery talent they show? Everybody earns their touches on this team through playing as a role player first, even Wemby did.

and yes, the other wings in this draft (even Zaccharie) aren’t that much better as shooters than Ron, but they have size. It makes sense to me that when all things are equal (or not significantly much different, in terms of talent), that you go for the guy with size.
Holland does have some some interesting qualities to him (athleticism, hustle, defense, youth, work ethic) but his 6'6" height with thin shoulders isn't enough for me to overlook he lack of a defined skill set on top of his very poor shooting numbers. Buzelis' aren't anything to write home about, but he's about 6'9", is a more advanced ball handler, better at creating his own shot and looks more resourceful finishing, so I see an easier pathway for him to develop into an important piece in the final minutes of a close playoff game, and that is the ultimate standard by which I'd measure a future core piece. Holland can maybe get there, but his path is harder, so I'd look elsewhere first. But if we were picking a bit later, I'd consider him as well.

[baseline bum]

Why I thought one way or the other, Spurs will select Reed Sheppard? I will base first my premise in the article “What we learned from the Spurs win over the Suns by Jacob Douglas dated March 26, 2024” of Poundingtherock.com. Douglas opined that “. . . the Spurs are better when they play fast . . .As they look at what to do in the offseason, more players that space the floor and make life easier in the half-court should be a priority.”
First, we can jumpstart a fastbreak (playing fast) through defensive rebounds, blocks and steals. Reed has quick hands as he has 3.1 steals per 36 min. and excel in throwing long outlet pass. He is a decent shot blocker for his size at 0.9 block per 36 min . Of course, Rebounds can be met by other picks.
Second, Reed can space the floor as he averaged 52.1 in 3P% and has a true shooting % of 69.9
Third, Reed is a dog. He came to college as number 23 prospect behind Collier, Holland, Edwards, Wagner, Buzelis, Bradshaw, Williams, Walter, MCCain, Castle, Dillingham before he earned the coveted freshman of the year award through constant improvement.
I’m not as good as various award-giving bodies (ESPN, CBS Sports, Basketball Writers, Basketball Coaches) but there must be a reason why Reed was their choice as Freshman of the Year 2024.
I would be content if Reed is the choice in the draft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8ICoAijE8E

Spurs don't like small guards. If they take a guard it's likely to be either Topic or Castle.

[baseline bum]

Holland does have some some interesting qualities to him (athleticism, hustle, defense, youth, work ethic) but his 6'6" height with thin shoulders isn't enough for me to overlook he lack of a defined skill set on top of his very poor shooting numbers. Buzelis' aren't anything to write home about, but he's about 6'9", is a more advanced ball handler, better at creating his own shot and looks more resourceful finishing, so I see an easier pathway for him to develop into an important piece in the final minutes of a close playoff game, and that is the ultimate standard by which I'd measure a future core piece. Holland can maybe get there, but his path is harder, so I'd look elsewhere first. But if we were picking a bit later, I'd consider him as well.

Where have you read he has a strong work ethic? If he's a gym rat like Kawhi I'd be much more willing to take a wild swing at him.

[alfahdlan]

Spurs don't like small guards. If they take a guard it's likely to be either Topic or Castle.
Parker, Avery, Mills, Silas etc.

[baseline bum]

Parker, Avery, Mills, Silas etc.

I should say they don't like drafting small guards in the first round, not since Tony Parker. Which did wonders for them in picking Primo for example. Probably work just as well with Topic.

[Ariel]

Spurs don't like small guards. If they take a guard it's likely to be either Topic or Castle.
I think so too, I'm high on Dillingham but I strongly believe the Spurs won't take him and would much rather bet on Castle

Where have you read he has a strong work ethic? If he's a gym rat like Kawhi I'd be much more willing to take a wild swing at him.
I remember hearing positive remarks about his character and work ethic, and that is consistent with how he plays (high motor, hustle) and conducts himself, but can't really remember where or back it up with a link. Sorry.

[JPB]

Not sure Topic will even crack the top 10. Sure hope spurs pass.

Combine and workouts should be interesting this year. Intrigued to seeTopic go after angry, athletic players, to see if his big difficulties in Euroleague he definitely decided to stay away from are structural. Not confident in players who hide, refuse challenges and to compete anyway. You can't hide in the NBA.

[mo7888]

Not sure Topic will even crack the top 10. Sure hope spurs pass.

Combine and workouts should be interesting this year. Intrigued to seeTopic go after angry, athletic players, to see if his big difficulties in Euroleague he definitely decided to stay away from are structural. Not confident in players who hide, refuse challenges and to compete anyway. You can't hide in the NBA.

I don't think he drops below #5. I expect him to be off the board when we pick.

[CGD]

I don't think he drops below #5. I expect him to be off the board when we pick.

I go back and forth on this, and think it might be a closer call. Of the crappy teams, the ones that need a PG the most are WAS and us. I can see TOR making a play but they’re also about to invest a lot in IQ?

So for me a linchpin for our draft is WAS. I’m kinda pulling for them to get the #1 pick so they feel pressured to take Sarr, and thereby keep the best PG prospect (whoever that is) on the board a little longer. It’s also one less landing place for one of the Top 3 SF prospects (whoever those end up being).

[rascal]

I go back and forth on this, and think it might be a closer call. Of the crappy teams, the ones that need a PG the most are WAS and us. I can see TOR making a play but they’re also about to invest a lot in IQ?

So for me a linchpin for our draft is WAS. I’m kinda pulling for them to get the #1 pick so they feel pressured to take Sarr, and thereby keep the best PG prospect (whoever that is) on the board a little longer. It’s also one less landing place for one of the Top 3 SF prospects (whoever those end up being).

Sarrr is the best player. Would rather the Spurs get the top pick and get Sarr than anyone else.

[rascal]

I go back and forth on this, and think it might be a closer call. Of the crappy teams, the ones that need a PG the most are WAS and us. I can see TOR making a play but they’re also about to invest a lot in IQ?

So for me a linchpin for our draft is WAS. I’m kinda pulling for them to get the #1 pick so they feel pressured to take Sarr, and thereby keep the best PG prospect (whoever that is) on the board a little longer. It’s also one less landing place for one of the Top 3 SF prospects (whoever those end up being).

Wash is also likely to take Clingan over Topic. Topic should be there at 5 or 6 where the Spurs will be drafting and he's going to likely be their pick. Don't see them targeting a small lack of defensive guard Dillingham.

I can see something like this

Top five picks
Sarr- Portland
Risacher- Charlotte
Clingan- Wash
Holland or Williams - Detroit
Topic - Spurs

[KobesAchilles]

Wash is also likely to take Clingan over Topic. Topic should should be there at 5 or 6 where the Spurs will be drafting and he's going to likely be their pick. Don't see them targeting a small lack of defensive guard Dillingham.
I agree with this post but it's a pretty dumb reason not to draft Dilly. Surrounding Wemby with more people who can't shoot should get somebody fired in this FO. It won't as we will continue to be lectured how fans don't know basketball. And maybe I don't. Pop knows way more than I do. But Sochan can't shoot, Champ can't shoot (NBA level shooter I mean, he's the definition of a GL player where the NBA is too fast for him), Collins can't shoot, Tre can't shoot, Wesley can't shoot, and now we draft Topic as another nonshooting player. Just a brilliant gameplan.

[ginobilized]

If WAS grabs Topic, Tyus Jones might be more easily picked up by the Spurs. He'd be a decent, inexpensive upgrade over his brother as a starter. Either way we get a PG.

If that occurs, Castle, Clingan, Buzellis or Williams makes sense. We'll be able to throw out our peanut gallery opinions with more fervor after 5/12.

I'd be somewhat expecting the Spurs to draft another 6'4" - 6'6" guard to convert to a PG, ala White, Murray, Primo, etc. Castle fits that profile. Pop seems to go this route vs drafting or signing true PGs.

[DesignatedT]

The Spurs have like a 2% chance to get the 5 pick.

[Mr. Body]

I go back and forth on this, and think it might be a closer call. Of the crappy teams, the ones that need a PG the most are WAS and us. I can see TOR making a play but they’re also about to invest a lot in IQ?

So for me a linchpin for our draft is WAS. I’m kinda pulling for them to get the #1 pick so they feel pressured to take Sarr, and thereby keep the best PG prospect (whoever that is) on the board a little longer. It’s also one less landing place for one of the Top 3 SF prospects (whoever those end up being).

Not sure it's a given Washington would take Sarr. They need a center, sure, but a point is more of a need with Tyus probably on the move. I can see them going for Topic before.

[rjv]

if the spurs drop outside the top 5, i can see them trading down and going after Salaun, if Risacher is already off the board.

[Mugen]

if the spurs drop outside the top 5, i can see them trading down and going after Salaun, if Risacher is already off the board.

Ideally the Raps pick converts at #7 and the Spurs can trade down to #10-13 to take Salaun. Would be nice to have a top 6 pick that can contribute right away AND a project guy like Salaun that they can afford to bring along for the next 2-3 years tbh.

[JPB]

Ideally the Raps pick converts at #7 and the Spurs can trade down to #10-13 to take Salaun. Would be nice to have a top 6 pick that can contribute right away AND a project guy like Salaun that they can afford to bring along for the next 2-3 years tbh.

Really not sure there's one of these prospects who will contribute right away or can really bring instantly more than what spurs already have. This draft seems more about long term prospects than pure talent.

[LeBowen]

Tbh, I've gone all the way back to preferring Sheppard out of all these point guard options.
If someone's shot was guaranteed to translate well, it's his and he's a high effort player on both ends of the floor.

Worst case scenario we get ourselves an elite shooter off the bench.
Best case scenario we get the next all-time great shooter.

[Mugen]

Really not sure there's one of these prospects who will contribute right away or can really bring instantly more than what spurs already have. His draft seems more about long term prospects.

Disagree. I could see some of the top 10 picks making an immediate contribution. Off the top of my head, both Kentucky guards, Knecht, and Castle are probably getting rotation minutes day 1 with the Spurs.

This team won 20 games this season, to think that a top 10 pick (even in a weak draft) can' t make an immediate pick is silly tbh.

[Dejounte]

if the spurs drop outside the top 5, i can see them trading down and going after Salaun, if Risacher is already off the board.


Ideally the Raps pick converts at #7 and the Spurs can trade down to #10-13 to take Salaun. Would be nice to have a top 6 pick that can contribute right away AND a project guy like Salaun that they can afford to bring along for the next 2-3 years tbh.

trade down from 7 to 13 to get what? Another 2nd? Whats the point of trading down? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a super successful trade down that yielded a team with nice assets to make it worth it.

[baseline bum]

Ideally the Raps pick converts at #7 and the Spurs can trade down to #10-13 to take Salaun. Would be nice to have a top 6 pick that can contribute right away AND a project guy like Salaun that they can afford to bring along for the next 2-3 years tbh.

If they really like Salaun just take him with the Toronto pick vs risking say OKC sniping him unless they're absolutely sure. Which would be tough moving 3-5 picks back.

[baseline bum]

trade down from 7 to 13 to get what? Another 2nd? Whats the point of trading down? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a super successful trade down that yielded a team with nice assets to make it worth it.

Dallas traded down to get off Bertans' contract and still get their man in Lively.

[Pauleta14]

Parker, Avery, Mills, Silas etc.

TP had a unique skill that allowed him to create separation whenever he needed, he's a exception case

Mills was a back up who came for his 3pt shooting more than his PG skills,

the other 2 are from a diff era

[Mugen]

If they really like Salaun just take him with the Toronto pick vs risking say OKC sniping him unless they're absolutely sure. Which would be tough moving 3-5 picks back.

That's fine. Fair point that 7 >> 10-13 is too risky but maybe like 7 >> 8 or 9.

Looking at the Pacers/Wiz trade last year where they Pacers traded 7 for 8 and picked up two second rounders for free. It's just good asset management but if they just end up taking Salaun with 7 cuz they like him then im fine with that too.

[mo7888]

trade down from 7 to 13 to get what? Another 2nd? Whats the point of trading down? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a super successful trade down that yielded a team with nice assets to make it worth it.

The only reasons I see to trade down are to 1) get an extra future 1st (unlikely, but you never can tell, if a gm falls in love with someone), 2) to get a player from the team we trade with to go along with the lower pick, or 3) unload an unwanted contract.

[BatManu20]

1781048878139072540

[Robz4000]

:lol the more I study these prospects the more I desperately want the Spurs to trade their pick and hope Toronto's doesn't convey this season

[baseline bum]

The only reasons I see to trade down are to 1) get an extra future 1st (unlikely, but you never can tell, if a gm falls in love with someone), 2) to get a player from the team we trade with to go along with the lower pick, or 3) unload an unwanted contract.

Would definitely be nice to get out of the Collins deal like Dallas did with Bertans last year.