2024 NBA Draft Thread

[rankingtear]

They should just brute force a starting wing in the next 2 drafts. The team would not have championship upside without one, regardless of the PG spot. If a star PG really desperate to come then hit UFA in 2025-2026. We may not even need one if we hit on the right wing player.

[BatManu20]

Watching another undersized guard out of Kentucky in 6’2 Tyrese Maxey go off tonight and will his Sixers team to victory on the road against the Knicks makes me feel a little better about the prospects of drafting Dillingham tbh.

[spurraider21]

Watching another undersized guard out of Kentucky in 6’2 Tyrese Maxey go off tonight and will his Sixers team to victory on the road against the Knicks makes me feel a little better about the prospects of drafting Dillingham tbh.
He out-dueled the 6’2 Brunson

[JPB]

Watching another undersized guard out of Kentucky in 6’2 Tyrese Maxey go off tonight and will his Sixers team to victory on the road against the Knicks makes me feel a little better about the prospects of drafting Dillingham tbh.

Well, that was a pure miracle in a series Sixers should already be out of and probably will soon, against a 6'2 guard on the other side. These short guards got exposed at some point anyway in the POs against real opposition (NY may not even be a PO team in the West). Not saying you do'nt want them on your team but not as your main guy and with a long guard/wing star besides. Ideal configuration is these guys as your thrid option.

[Dejounte]

Well, that was a pure miracle in a series Sixers should already be out of and probably will soon, against a 6'2 guard on the other side. These short guards got exposed at some point anyway in the POs against real opposition (NY may not even be a PO team in the West). Not saying you do'nt want them on your team but not as your main guy and with a long guard/wing star besides. Ideal configuration is these guys as your thrid option.

“There is no ideal configuration when WeMbY iS So UnIqUe nOthInG iN tHe PaST ApPliEs”

[Pauleta14]

My ideal 2025 lineup:

Derrick White (UFA signing)
Alexandre Sarr
Jeremy Sochan
Stephon Castle
Victor Wembanyama

You're ideal starting 5 is to surround Wemby with non shooters?

[Pauleta14]

Watching another undersized guard out of Kentucky in 6’2 Tyrese Maxey go off tonight and will his Sixers team to victory on the road against the Knicks makes me feel a little better about the prospects of drafting Dillingham tbh.

Maxey has a 6'6 wingspan mate. It makes massive differences on D and to shoot when guarded

[mo7888]

If we get the TOR pick, double down on wings. Any two of Risacher, Buzelis, Holland. That's my meaningless vote.

Risacher-Buzelis would be ideal. Buzelis or Sochan would fit nicely with Wemby and Risacher. Sochan would start, but eventually either Sochan or Buzelis would win out as the long term starter. Then try and trade for or sign a PG elsewhere. I also think if Buzelis progresses like I believe he will it gives us more of a range of PG archetypes that we can pursue. A scoring 3D PG would be fine if Buzelis's playmaking develops.

[Silverheart80]

You're ideal starting 5 is to surround Wemby with non shooters?

My ideal starting 5 is a lineup that creates mismatch advantages every night and doesn't surround VW with more traffic cones on defense. No matter who the Spurs draft this year, we're gonna be garbage again because there's currently no one but VW who creates mismatches, offensively and defensively. We're not going anywhere but Lottery, until we massively upgrade our defense, and upgrade from Vassell and KJ as our 2nd and 3rd options.

White shoots almost 40% on threes for the season. Ask the Miami Heat if he's a shooter right now. He'll be a UFA in the summer of 2025.

Sarr plays like a wing. He's flat-out gonna be a star. Can shoot from long-range, has solid form, and has positional versatility that just isn't there with almost any other Lottery pick this year. Put his defense together with VW and Sochan, and we're night-and-day on team defense in one move. Worth the pick, even for that reason alone.

Sochan was an awful rookie shooter. Improved immensely this year. I trust he'll keep improving.

Castle has some Maxey in his game, but a bigger version. Maxey was a sub-30% 3-point shooter in college too, but the fundamentals were there, just like with Castle. Both are great on pick-and-roll midrange shots. Both can create on both sides of the floor. Castle already has solid midrange tools when playing with a big man in the middle. Put that together with his defensive IQ and I'm willing to wait for his three-point form to rise to the same level. He hit shots when they mattered in the Final Four.

I love KJ's spirit, but he's a low BBIQ guy. We need more smarts + leadership in crunch time, and I think Castle can be one of those guys.

[Dejounte]

My ideal starting 5 is a lineup that creates mismatch advantages every night and doesn't surround VW with more traffic cones on defense. No matter who the Spurs draft this year, we're gonna be garbage again because there's currently no one but VW who creates mismatches, offensively and defensively. We're not going anywhere but Lottery, until we massively upgrade our defense, and upgrade from Vassell and KJ as our 2nd and 3rd options.

White shoots almost 40% on threes for the season. Ask the Miami Heat if he's a shooter right now. He'll be a UFA in the summer of 2025.

Sarr plays like a wing. He's flat-out gonna be a star. Can shoot from long-range, has solid form, and has positional versatility that just isn't there with almost any other Lottery pick this year. Put his defense together with VW and Sochan, and we're night-and-day on team defense in one move. Worth the pick, even for that reason alone.

Sochan was an awful rookie shooter. Improved immensely this year. I trust he'll keep improving.

Castle reminds me of a bigger version of Maxey. Maxey was a sub-30% 3-point shooter in college too, but the fundamentals were there, just like with Castle. Both are great on pick-and-roll midrange shots. Both can create on both sides of the floor. Castle already has solid midrange tools when playing with a big man in the middle. Put that together with his defensive IQ and I'm willing to wait for his three-point form to rise to the same level. He hit shots when they mattered in the Final Four.

I love KJ's spirit, but he's a low BBIQ guy. We need more smarts + leadership in crunch time, and I think Castle can be one of those guys.

Watch more than a 3 minute video before you blow your load. He’s not the player you think he is.


https://youtu.be/E8mn7jDL4nY?feature=shared

it’s a massive exaggeration to say he can shoot. His numbers clearly say otherwise. He’s a player who was given the green light to do what he wants on offense, which leads to a few made shots that people compiled into a highlight video.

[spurraider21]

I’ve watched 46 hours of film on Sarr alone and i agree that his perimeter and shooting skills are not nearly as good as people seem to think

[rascal]

My ideal starting 5 is a lineup that creates mismatch advantages every night and doesn't surround VW with more traffic cones on defense. No matter who the Spurs draft this year, we're gonna be garbage again because there's currently no one but VW who creates mismatches, offensively and defensively. We're not going anywhere but Lottery, until we massively upgrade our defense, and upgrade from Vassell and KJ as our 2nd and 3rd options.

White shoots almost 40% on threes for the season. Ask the Miami Heat if he's a shooter right now. He'll be a UFA in the summer of 2025.

Sarr plays like a wing. He's flat-out gonna be a star. Can shoot from long-range, has solid form, and has positional versatility that just isn't there with almost any other Lottery pick this year. Put his defense together with VW and Sochan, and we're night-and-day on team defense in one move. Worth the pick, even for that reason alone.

Sochan was an awful rookie shooter. Improved immensely this year. I trust he'll keep improving.

Castle has some Maxey in his game, but a bigger version. Maxey was a sub-30% 3-point shooter in college too, but the fundamentals were there, just like with Castle. Both are great on pick-and-roll midrange shots. Both can create on both sides of the floor. Castle already has solid midrange tools when playing with a big man in the middle. Put that together with his defensive IQ and I'm willing to wait for his three-point form to rise to the same level. He hit shots when they mattered in the Final Four.

I love KJ's spirit, but he's a low BBIQ guy. We need more smarts + leadership in crunch time, and I think Castle can be one of those guys.

I like Sarr but he is not a shooter from the perimeter. Shoots very few shots because it makes no sense for him to be firing low % shots from the perimeter. He has the most upside in this draft class and I expect any team will draft him with the first pick.

Sochan only increased his 3pt % by 6.2 % and his overall fg% droped by 1.5% so he did not improve immensely.

I like Castle but he may never be a perimeter scorer becaue his form does not look good.

[Vienna]

Watching another undersized guard out of Kentucky in 6’2 Tyrese Maxey go off tonight and will his Sixers team to victory on the road against the Knicks makes me feel a little better about the prospects of drafting Dillingham tbh.

Yes. Kentucky. But the 2024 Draft equivalent to Maxey isn’t Dillingham. That would be Jared McCain.

[J_Paco]

Just give me Dillingham paired with (maybe) Knecht or the best 3 - and - D wing (yes, I know Knecht isn't a good defensive prospect) and I'm good.

[MultiTroll]

What is the date we find out the lottery order?

[mo7888]

What is the date we find out the lottery order?

12th

[LeBowen]

What is the date we find out the lottery order?

Sunday, 12th.

[Russ]

I like Sarr but he is not a shooter from the perimeter. Shoots very few shots because it makes no sense for him to be firing low % shots from the perimeter. He has the most upside in this draft class and I expect any team will draft him with the first pick.

Sarr will likely be pick #1. That's why all our discussion of Sarr is likely academic if the Spurs don't get that pick (although I do like him and Topic).


What is the date we find out the lottery order?

May 12.

[CGD]

Maxey has a 6'6 wingspan mate. It makes massive differences on D and to shoot when guarded

Exactly. Not only do I seriously doubt Dilly is 6’3”, he’s at best a +0 wingspan and super slight.

It’s not hard: just draft the best wing prospect available with the natural pick, swing for the fences if the TOR pick conveys, and wait for the CLE and ATL point guard drama to unfold this summer.

[Truckules]

I think I've come to the conclusion that the focus on PG is overblown. Do the Spurs need a better starting PG? Yes, but more importantly, they need solid depth. The Wemby, Tre, Vassell, Sochan, and Keldon lineup played the second most minutes and was +20.5 per 100. If that lineup played the most minutes, the Spurs are in the play-in at a minimum. The issue if you play that as the starters is the rotations are all messed up since the bench is not NBA level right now.

Another thought I've had is that whoever they pick needs to be a plus defender (or the ability to be one) more than anything. If Wemby has to save the defense season after season, he's never going to be able to develop on the offensive end since he'll be spending so much energy on defense.

And finally, this is the year to pick safe. Swing for the fences when the draft is good, but the last thing the Spurs can afford to do this year is pick a bust. Pick safe this year and swing for the fences next year.

Given all of that, I'm really hoping that Dillingham is not the pick since his defense seems terrible which gives him a lot of bust potential alongside making Wemby's job harder. Cody Williams is who I have my eye on since I think he's got the most easily translatable defensive ability along with being an elite paint finisher. If you believe in his shot, which I do, then he seems like the highest floor of the top 10 prospects.

[onechance87]

I think I've come to the conclusion that the focus on PG is overblown. Do the Spurs need a better starting PG? Yes, but more importantly, they need solid depth. The Wemby, Tre, Vassell, Sochan, and Keldon lineup played the second most minutes and was +20.5 per 100. If that lineup played the most minutes, the Spurs are in the play-in at a minimum. The issue if you play that as the starters is the rotations are all messed up since the bench is not NBA level right now.

Another thought I've had is that whoever they pick needs to be a plus defender (or the ability to be one) more than anything. If Wemby has to save the defense season after season, he's never going to be able to develop on the offensive end since he'll be spending so much energy on defense.

And finally, this is the year to pick safe. Swing for the fences when the draft is good, but the last thing the Spurs can afford to do this year is pick a bust. Pick safe this year and swing for the fences next year.

Given all of that, I'm really hoping that Dillingham is not the pick since his defense seems terrible which gives him a lot of bust potential alongside making Wemby's job harder. Cody Williams is who I have my eye on since I think he's got the most easily translatable defensive ability along with being an elite paint finisher. If you believe in his shot, which I do, then he seems like the lowest floor of the top 10 prospects.

of course a pg is important.To many times we saw the offense stall and saw many stupid plays.Just the little time we saw granham in
it made our offense faster and confused the defence which helped get players open especially wemby.A pg who pushes the pace would
be great for us.

[FireMicoHalili]

Have a feeling they go for Buzelis

[BackHome]

Topic pretty much has stayed in top 4 of the draft for several months and I think they will pick him because he fits a need, but also because he probably is that high on there board as far as talent. I think Bleacher Report just came out with a new mock that has us taking Topic and then with Raptors pick getting Dilly ...

[rascal]

Topic pretty much has stayed in top 4 of the draft for several months and I think they will pick him because he fits a need, but also because he probably is that high on there board as far as talent. I think Bleacher Report just came out with a new mock that has us taking Topic and then with Raptors pick getting Dilly ...

Spurs will find a way to surround Wemby with an athletically challenged team.

[BackHome]

I would rather have him surrounded with players who have high ball IQ VS. the Athletic Deer. Two players who I think would thrive playing with Topic would be Wemby and Mamu as both just have ball IQ they just now when to cut to the basket or flare for a 3 ball shot

[JPB]

I respect people saying they're not sold in a vacuum but mock drafts who have Risacher sliding because he cooled down in the secod part of the season is terrible scouting and evaluation process. That's everything you shodln't do, evaluate a prospect player in the moment. Should he have stopped playing in 2024, he would be the consensus #1...

Meanwhile, same mock drafts keep Topic top 5 who stopped playing in 2024 after 2 terrible Euroleague outings because of a mysterious 4 week tuned month injury that suddenly got better lately afer his team was out of the Euroleague... And College players keep being evaluated upon their tounrament performances every year, while every pro scout and (good) GM will tell you the Tounament isn't that important in their evaluation and can be deceptive...

Risacher played the equivalent of 2 College seasons in one year, in pro, competitive leagues, Put Castle, Dilly, Sheppard... in that position and they probably struggled a bit after 40 games too... It's all about potential. And if you don't like, fine. but you're betting on developing a player like Risacher so he built on that first part of the season (and what he's still showing). At least, that's something, and more than 2 or 3 Tournament games.

[Vienna]

I respect people saying they're not sold in a vacuum but mock drafts who have Risacher sliding because he cooled down in the secod part of the season is terrible scouting and evaluation process. That's everything you shodln't do, evaluate a prospect player in the moment. Should he have stopped playing in 2024, he would be the consensus #1...

Meanwhile, same mock drafts keep Topic top 5 who stopped playing in 2024 after 2 terrible Euroleague outings because of a mysterious 4 week tuned month injury that suddenly got better lately afer his team was out of the Euroleague... And College players keep being evaluated upon their tounrament performances every year, while every pro scout and (good) GM will tell you the Tounament isn't that important in their evaluation and can be deceptive...

Risacher played the equivalent of 2 College seasons in one year, in pro, competitive leagues, Put Castle, Dilly, Sheppard... in that position and they probably struggled a bit after 40 games too... It's all about potential. And if you don't like, fine. but you're betting on developing a player like Risacher so he built on that first part of the season (and what he's still showing). At least, that's something, and more than 2 or 3 Tournament games.

totally agree. remember Lamelo? he played 12 games in Australia, got injured in November (would have missed 4 weeks) and decided to shut down the season. player who don't play usually don't fall, if they already got a certain status with the teams regarding the upcoming draft. so why should players fall, who do play?
it will rather count for Risacher, that NBA teams could see that his body can stand a long season. he missed just 2 games the whole season, while playing at least 2 games a week since September last year.

I can see, that he isn't the most fascinating prospect, when talking about a top3 pick, considering his expected role in the NBA.
and in most other drafts he might be an estimated 6 to 10 pick. nothing wrong about that. but, as we know, this draft lacks that kind of highly talented players, so he moves up. not his fault. I doubt he will be the number 1 pick, that will likely be Sarr, because of his supposed upside. so Risacher will likely be picked at 2 or 3. I rather see Topic fall to mid lottery. (he might become available with the Raptors pick).

[Dejounte]

All Risacher built during the “first part” of his season was the fact that he looked the part of a tall guy who could shoot and then for the “second half” he looks like just a tall guy who is an average shooter. That’s it. He’s way more being judged by the fact that he’s not great with the ball in his hands and has little potential there in his future.

The real equivalent here is Patrick Baldwin Jr. from last year. The guy was a top 5 pick and then had a college season that was underwhelming. There’s your “potential” guy that you would have fallen for since you love a guy who's tall and looks like they could shoot. Except PBJ saw his stock drop, just like Risacher rightfully should, because the weaknesses of his game got exposed.

[Vienna]

yeah sure. Baldwin, a guy as athletic as 40 years old Dirk, playing 11 games for a joke collge in a joke conference is now the Risacher equivalent. oh well..

[Dejounte]

yeah sure. Baldwin, a guy as athletic as 40 years old Dirk, playing 11 games for a joke collge in a joke conference is now the Risacher equivalent. oh well..

It’s not Baldwin’s fault he was born an American :lmao

Let’s come back here in five years to see who turned out right about this guy.

People cry about the current Spurs roster being a team full of role players and they want to draft another one in Risacher. Smh

Risacher will have his 20 pt games every now and then because that’s what shooters do. Forbes had multiple 20 pt games. What we’re betting here is that Risacher is a role player and nothing more. And you don’t waste a top 5 pick on a guy whose ceiling is clearly limited, even in a weak draft like this.

[spurraider21]

It’s not Baldwin’s fault he was born an American :lmao

Let’s come back here in five years to see who turned out right about this guy.

People cry about the current Spurs roster being a team full of role players and they want to draft another one in Risacher. Smh

Risacher will have his 20 pt games every now and then because that’s what shooters do. Forbes had multiple 20 pt games. What we’re betting here is that Risacher is a role player and nothing more. And you don’t waste a top 5 pick on a guy whose ceiling is clearly limited, even in a weak draft like this.
Absolutely nothing wrong with role players so long as they actually fill their roles. Champagnie as a 3 and D role player who doesn’t hit all that many 3s and doesn’t defend particular well while not adding much else in other departments is frustrating to see play starters minutes. Sochan as the defensive specialist who only seems to have a big impact in about a quarter of his games is frustrating. Don’t think people complain about Tre Jones being a role player since he usually plays up to his role.

[The Truth #6]

Dejounte, are there any players you particularly like in this draft?

[JPB]

Givony updated his mock draft today:

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/38788364/2024-nba-draft-rankings-espn-top-25-prospects

His top 10:

Risacher
Sarr
Clingan
Dilly
Topic
Buz(elis)
Sheppard
Knecht
Castle
Williams

As he noted, Risacher got out of his '(relative) slump these last 4 games, in front of a bunch of scouts. I also still believe he's #1... 6"10, versatile, nice defense, and you bet on actually making him a reliable shooter in the NBA. I mean Wemby was shooting 27.5% on 3 last year in the french league. He shot 32.5% this year and progressing. Risacher is shooting 39% on 3 over the season.

[JPB]

4. Rob Dillingham | PG | Kentucky
6-2 | Age: 19.3 | Previously ranked: 4

"Dillingham is one of the more polarizing players projected in the lottery, and where he gets drafted will depend on how the final lottery order shakes out. Teams in need of playmaking help will have to look hard at him: He creates shots off the bounce more naturally than anyone in the class and has developed into a very good shooter. On the other hand, many around the league are skeptical Dillingham becomes a starter on a winning team, primarily due to his lack of size and what he's likely to give up on the defensive end. As a result, he's a major risk-reward proposition early in the draft, and might be looking at a pretty wide range of outcomes within the lottery, depending on how the pre-draft process goes. -- Woo"

[CorrectCrusader]

As long as we come out of the draft with a kentucky guard I'm happy

[LeBowen]

As long as we come out of the draft with a kentucky guard I'm happy

Imo, it's pretty clear what's going to happen, unless someone impresses in workouts.
Risacher or Sarr if they're available because they're just too good to pass on. I expect them both to be top3 picks, so it's about how the lottery goes.
If Spurs aren't in top3, then it's between Dillingham, Sheppard and Topic, with Spurs having the choice between those three since it's just the Wizards that could also select a point guard.
But they'll either be in top3 and select Risacher/Sarr or drop below Spurs so it won't matter.

Then if Toronto pick conveys we can talk about Buzelis, Williams and other wing prospects.

[spurraider21]

after reading some of dejounte's comments i went back and watched an additional 34 hours of Risacher film and came away more assured that he's atop my board, or at least 1a/1b with Dillingham

[DPG21920]

Ya - at this point I hope SA gets 2 picks and walks away with both Dillingham and Zaccharie Risacher.

Seems like a perfect outcome in terms of potential, need (shooting) and overall pedigree.

[scott]

People cry about the current Spurs roster being a team full of role players and they want to draft another one in Risacher. Smh



The problem for me in this draft is that you could make this same statement about any of the prospects in this draft. Holland and Collier seem to me the highest upside players in this draft, but all-star is such a small portion of their range of outcomes that include a very large possibility of busting. Even Dillingham, who I like, might project to his most likely outcome being a backup PG. Sarr to me has Clint Capela written all over him. Capela's career would be a great outcome, just not really what you want out of a top 3 pick. All of these prospects have major flaws that project most of them to being role players.

So yeah, I definitely had that we have a team that consists of Wemby, a bunch of role players, and a bunch of players who shouldn't be in the league... but this draft might not be the one where you can really solve that. At least maybe we can upgrade the role players on our team.

With that said, that's why I want to double up on wings if the TOR pick conveys. To me, one of Risacher, Buzelis and Holland have the best chance of reaching the upper end of the range of outcomes. Buzelis and Holland would be my ideal combo. at say, 4 and 7.

[heyheymymy]

Thanks for the Givony ESPN updated rankings, here is a free view non paywall link:

LXTul (https://archive.ph/LXTul)

[JPB]

Thanks for the Givony ESPN updated rankings, here is a free view non paywall link:

LXTul (https://archive.ph/LXTul)

Thanks, I was not sure if you guys could see it (it's free for me). I wanted to post the whole thing but that's pretty long. Nice you could you find a link.

[ginobilized]

The combine and, especially team workouts will determine the draft order. I do feel like the Spurs rubrics for workouts might be pretty solid.
My guess is that most teams have a hypothetical big board and that may be very open to change once players get worked out.
Hopefully, the Spurs get to see the players they want without a ton of leaks as to who they are working out. This will be one of the weirdest, wildest drafts in recent memory.

The top 10 likely has a few players that are able to surpass Champagne, Branham and Tre. That's a decent start.

[stnick2261]

Topic pretty much has stayed in top 4 of the draft for several months and I think they will pick him because he fits a need, but also because he probably is that high on there board as far as talent. I think Bleacher Report just came out with a new mock that has us taking Topic and then with Raptors pick getting Dilly ...

I would actually be really happy with that outcome. Double the chances that one of them will stick and then focus on SF/PF in 2025 draft and FA

[heyheymymy]

I was also thinking load up on guards in 2024 draft and then target SF/PF in 2025 draft and that's still not a bad strategy to consider.

But looking at 2025 more closely and they have some nice guards in that draft too. Nolan Traore is a French PG who looks promising and Harper a solid 6-5 SG.

So maybe I'm back to "get one of each" again if TOR conveys in 24 lol. Obvs not going to be in range for all those names barring trades or luck so def wildly idealistic here but

25-26

Traore/Jones
Vassell/Sheppard
Risacher/Sochan
Flagg/Essungue
Wemby/Zollins

Jut trying to look a little further ahead to the possible endgame here but probably way too best case scenario and open to debate for sure.

[heyheymymy]

Just starting to think answering these 2024 draft questions may involve 2025 draft events incorporated into the concepts and how best can you rope in some 2025 names with whatever SA gets from 2024 and be mostly done building afterwards to best suite Wemby's likely win-now timeline mindset.

[heyheymymy]

Problem with Topic is whether the 3PT shooting can improve to be enough of a threat to open up the offense or alternatively whether Tre Jones can build on his 3PT progression some more because otherwise doesn't it seem like you take one out the game for the other and it's overlapping non 3PT threats so the redundancy would kill SA with spacing issues and non stop 4 on 5s with defenses doubling off that Spurs get no break from barring additional personnel changes

[stnick2261]

Just starting to think answering these 2024 draft questions may involve 2025 draft events incorporated into the concepts and how best can you rope in some 2025 names with whatever SA gets from 2024 and be mostly done building afterwards to best suite Wemby's likely win-now timeline mindset.

I would absolutely love* if Toronto wins the lottery this year. I wouldn’t even care who we drafted this year if we had the chance to draft SF Ace or PF Flagg (even by trading up from our plenty picks)… and fill the other slot with SF OG Anunoby or PF Lauri Markkanen through Free Agency.

*I would actually love a whole bunch of scenarios

[LeBowen]

Problem with Topic is whether the 3PT shooting can improve to be enough of a threat to open up the offense or alternatively whether Tre Jones can build on his 3PT progression some more because otherwise doesn't it seem like you take one out the game for the other and it's overlapping non 3PT threats so the redundancy would kill SA with spacing issues and non stop 4 on 5s with defenses doubling off that Spurs get no break from barring additional personnel changes

Yeah, Spurs were definitely trying to find a versatile point guard rather than a floor general who needs the ball at all times.
Primo experiment failed even before he went full exhibitionst, Sochan experiment was even worse.

In that KOC interview Wemby talked about how Spurs expect him to take some handling duties and how the system is about sharing the ball, kind of what Nuggets are doing.
That's why I wouldn't rule out Sheppard. He doesn't have to be an elite playmaker, just competent enough. His elite 3pt shooting and off ball movement would be invaluable to that system.

It would've been ideal if Jeremy experiment was a success. If only he could get to let's say SlowMo level of playmaking, but I'm not optimistic.

[heyheymymy]

I would absolutely love* if Toronto wins the lottery this year. I wouldn’t even care who we drafted this year if we had the chance to draft SF Ace or PF Flagg (even by trading up from our plenty picks)… and fill the other slot with SF OG Anunoby or PF Lauri Markkanen through Free Agency.

*I would actually love a whole bunch of scenarios

Love the 6-9 SF Ace Bailey he would be a great prospect just depends on any logjams there. Edgecomb would be a possible Branham upgrade. 2025 looks loaded but long way away so we'll see how it shifts

[heyheymymy]

Agreed LeBowen Spurs may be eyeing a decentralized playmaking-by-committee thriving on indirect creation especially with Vic's potential as a hub QB. Vassell started more effortlessly racking up AST in the tail end of this season, wonder if that's a changing development. But even if it was just the extra pass, Dev's emergence as more connective or should any other Spurs players join in it may demonstrate the role is more or less fulfilled. Then are you still looking at the PG need as closely?

If PATFO thinks they can get fluid ball movement and build a system that feeds off of secondary orchestration they may decide they do not need to run the ball through a traditional PG style. Then an off ball wing would plug in more naturally perhaps? Does SA already have the initiators sufficient to operate a well oiled offense and then shouldn't the focus swing to talented recipients?

Obvs I think SA still needs a PG anyway, Jones/Wesley feels too barren. But perhaps you could get away with a less valuable one that just stopgaps the position as opposed to blowing considerable draft capital on a name brand guard.

[spurraider21]

Agreed LeBowen Spurs may be eyeing a decentralized playmaking-by-committee thriving on indirect creation especially with Vic's potential as a hub QB. Vassell started more effortlessly racking up AST in the tail end of this season, wonder if that's a changing development. But even if it was just the extra pass, Dev's emergence as more connective or should any other Spurs players join in it may demonstrate the role is more or less fulfilled. Then are you still looking at the PG need as closely?

If PATFO thinks they can get fluid ball movement and build a system that feeds off of secondary orchestration they may decide they do not need to run the ball through a traditional PG style. Then an off ball wing would plug in more naturally perhaps? Does SA already have the initiators sufficient to operate a well oiled offense and then shouldn't the focus swing to talented recipients?

Obvs I think SA still needs a PG anyway, Jones/Wesley feels too barren. But perhaps you could get away with a less valuable one that just stopgaps the position as opposed to blowing considerable draft capital on a name brand guard.
this is something ive been considering quite a bit and is one of the reasons im optimistic that sheppard can get by at point guard if that ends up being the pick

[heyheymymy]

Like getting away with the lesser pick on McCain instead of using the higher pick on Dillingham so you can focus the higher value pick (in the event TOR conveys) on a wing prospect. Mostly just if you were in range for Risacher somehow not sure another 2024 SF/PF would qualify in this example.

Risacher & McCain would be a strong get with possibly looking at Traore in 2025, possibly to replace Jones, or to bump Wesley out should he fizzle

[heyheymymy]

this is something ive been considering quite a bit and is one of the reasons im optimistic that sheppard can get by at point guard if that ends up being the pick

Agreed spurraider21 I think it's at least in play. So in that case the flashy PG premium may not be necessary draft or FA, so that would include Trae Young too. Maybe we are looking at this all wrong.

[heyheymymy]

Also agree that at least in the recent sense the Nuggets and Jokic make this model all possible

[mo7888]

Like getting away with the lesser pick on McCain instead of using the higher pick on Dillingham so you can focus the higher value pick (in the event TOR conveys) on a wing prospect. Mostly just if you were in range for Risacher somehow not sure another 2024 SF/PF would qualify in this example.

Risacher & McCain would be a strong get with possibly looking at Traore in 2025, possibly to replace Jones, or to bump Wesley out should he fizzle

If the choice was between picking Dilly or trading back and getting McCain and another significant asset, then I'd trade back.

[spurraider21]

i mean it would depend on how significant that asset is, but man i dno about that

[mo7888]

i mean it would depend on how significant that asset is, but man i dno about that

For example... if we get Toronto at 7 or 8 and Nola wanted someone there and we could get one of their forwards + #17 (assuming McCain is there), I'd do that...

[spurraider21]

For example... if we get Toronto at 7 or 8 and Nola wanted someone there and we could get one of their forwards + #17 (assuming McCain is there), I'd do that...
seems unrealistic imo

[mo7888]

seems unrealistic imo

Its just one example, but i won't be surprised if Nola moves one of them. They may target something bigger, though, but the premis holds true for anyone in that 12-17 range where McCain is likely to go.

[PhantomDashCam]

1785758529057423794

[spurraider21]

Reed's efficiency and impact numbers are frankly off the charts. the advanced stats all scream sheppard.

when comparing to dillingham though, its always the volume that catches my eye. as awesome as a shooter as reed is, dilly was taking more 3's per game and per 36 while still nailing a very high % of them. makes me question how easily he can get shots off in the nba without the same threat to penetrate that dilly has

[Mr. Body]

Problem with trading down for McCain instead, as a hypothetical, is that he's not a point. He doesn't have those skills. Might as well stick and take Sheppard.

And as spurs says, Sheppard's advanced stats and efficiency are tremendous, but imo in more of a narrow range, like a tunnel. He wasn't great at making his own shot, he often shot only when open, wasn't a great driver. Dillingham made more shots in the paint than Sheppard even attempted. Someone posted Dillingham's catch and shoot numbers and they were really high, too. What sets Dillingham apart is he took shots of pretty much every kind. He manufactured many of those shots himself, if he had to. And he didn't seem to be bothered too much by contests.

[Dejounte]

1785758529057423794
Reed is back up above Dilly on my board. Not because of this post, but I did another go around of his tape and focused on all his passing, and yeah, he sees the game at another level. Taking him would be a continuation of the brand of basketball at the end of our season where everyone played smart with the ball, and had a feel of “Showtime” to it. The same way Wemby had us in awe with his fancy passing all season I think Reed has that in his arsenal.

I think they should just go crazy with it and draft both Kentucky guards, tbh

[Dejounte]

after reading some of dejounte's comments i went back and watched an additional 34 hours of Risacher film and came away more assured that he's atop my board, or at least 1a/1b with Dillingham

You laugh now bruh but I’m for sure keeping receipts when it turns out Risacher is who I think he is in five years and all y’all will be silent about it

[Dejounte]

The problem for me in this draft is that you could make this same statement about any of the prospects in this draft. Holland and Collier seem to me the highest upside players in this draft, but all-star is such a small portion of their range of outcomes that include a very large possibility of busting. Even Dillingham, who I like, might project to his most likely outcome being a backup PG. Sarr to me has Clint Capela written all over him. Capela's career would be a great outcome, just not really what you want out of a top 3 pick. All of these prospects have major flaws that project most of them to being role players.

So yeah, I definitely had that we have a team that consists of Wemby, a bunch of role players, and a bunch of players who shouldn't be in the league... but this draft might not be the one where you can really solve that. At least maybe we can upgrade the role players on our team.

With that said, that's why I want to double up on wings if the TOR pick conveys. To me, one of Risacher, Buzelis and Holland have the best chance of reaching the upper end of the range of outcomes. Buzelis and Holland would be my ideal combo. at say, 4 and 7.

As desperate as other fans are with wanting this team to appease Wemby by going after win-now players is the same energy I have with wanting the Spurs to draft a player with a nonzero possibility of being a borderine star or better. If Dilly has that 1% chance of being a star, 10% being a decent role player, and 89% chance becoming a bust— I will still take him over a guy like Risacher who has 0% likelihood of being a star, 50% a role player, 50% bust (random numbers but the point is I don’t believe he has any star upside). This is because I want to pair Wemby up with a #2 option and I want the team to be risky about it if they have to.

[PhantomDashCam]

Reed's efficiency and impact numbers are frankly off the charts. the advanced stats all scream sheppard.

when comparing to dillingham though, its always the volume that catches my eye. as awesome as a shooter as reed is, dilly was taking more 3's per game and per 36 while still nailing a very high % of them. makes me question how easily he can get shots off in the nba without the same threat to penetrate that dilly has

So the thing that I wonder with this Spurs team and its general construction is whether the penetration has to necessarily come from the PG position.

The Top 5 Spurs in Drives per game last season were: Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Wemby (in that order).
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/drives?TeamID=1610612759&dir=D&sort=DRIVES

If the Spurs see Sheppard as at least a plus team defender, his game would sit pretty well in a Wemby, Sochan, KJ, DV starting lineup IMO.

[mo7888]

You laugh now bruh but I’m for sure keeping receipts when it turns out Risacher is who I think he is in five years and all y’all will be silent about it

Hang on to these receipts:

2024 NBA Draft Board
Tier 1:
1. Zaccharie Risacher
2. Alex Sarr
3. Nikola Topic
4. Matas Buzelis
Tier 2:
5. Reed Shephard
6. Cody Williams
7. Dalton Knecht
8. Isaiah Collier
Tier 3:
9. Robert Dillingham
10. Tidjane Salaun
11. Donovan Clingan
12. Stephen Castle
13. JaKobe Walter
14. Kyle Filipowski
15. Ron Holland
16. Johnny Furphy
Tier 4:
17. Ryan Dunn
18. Tyler Smith
19. Ke'lel Ware
20. Yves Missi
21. Zach Edey
22. Bobi Klintman
23. Kyshawn George
Tier 5:
24. Pacome Dadiet
25. Trevon Brazile
26. Kevin McCullar
27. Melvin Ajinca
28. Tyler Kolek
29. Tristan Da Silva
30. Pelle Larsson

My Spurs Board Top 10

1. Matas Buzelis
2. Zaccharie Risacher
3. Nikola Topic
4. Alexander Sarr
5. Cody Williams
6. Reed Shephard
7. Dalton Knecht
8. Isaiah Collier
9. Tidjane Salaun
10. Robert Dillingham

There will be some changes between now and draft day after we get true measurements and workout reports, but I'll give you those too...

[objective]

I think they should just go crazy with it and draft both Kentucky guards, tbh

Riiisky

But I don't think I'd mind. Rather that than one of them plus Buzelis I guess.

Despite being bigger, Branham isn't any better of a defender and a likely worse shooter than either Kentucky g. Branham can go

[Limguogolo]

As desperate as other fans are with wanting this team to appease Wemby by going after win-now players is the same energy I have with wanting the Spurs to draft a player with a nonzero possibility of being a borderine star or better. If Dilly has that 1% chance of being a star, 10% being a decent role player, and 89% chance becoming a bust— I will still take him over a guy like Risacher who has 0% likelihood of being a star, 50% a role player, 50% bust (random numbers but the point is I don’t believe he has any star upside). This is because I want to pair Wemby up with a #2 option and I want the team to be risky about it if they have to.

For comparison, here Dejounte notes for some random young Warriros players.

Stephen Curry: good shooter, fast, too small, not athletic for the NBA level (future good Euroleague player). 0% star, 5% role player, 20% bench player.

Draymond Green: good defender, disciplined, clumsy (athletic complementary player, very useful in a European league). 0% star, 10% role player, 40% bench player.

Klay Thompson: another role player, not the caliber of a super star, tall, three points, nothing more, will have to find consistency to find a place in the NBA. 0% star, 15% role player, 40% bench player.

"You laugh now bruh but I’m for sure keeping receipts when it turns out these three are who I think they are in five years and all y’all will be silent about it."

[Dejounte]

^Yeahhhhh. Nope. Not at all how I would have rated them. Obviously, you haven’t been on this board long enough to recall all my good calls on players no one here believed in

[JPB]

Agreed LeBowen Spurs may be eyeing a decentralized playmaking-by-committee thriving on indirect creation especially with Vic's potential as a hub QB. Vassell started more effortlessly racking up AST in the tail end of this season, wonder if that's a changing development. But even if it was just the extra pass, Dev's emergence as more connective or should any other Spurs players join in it may demonstrate the role is more or less fulfilled. Then are you still looking at the PG need as closely?


Which would be another terrible idea, tbh. Enough with the funky experimentations and overevaluation of this roster, as well as coaching staff superiority complex... Vassel is not a creator/playmaker and never really will, no matter how he may improve.

This team badly needs playmaking, just like they need more talent. Spreading playmaking between several average guys, "by committee" isn't worth one talented creator/difference maker. "By committee" is what you say when you lost a star from injury and you have to replace his production, but shouldn't be your main philosophy.

Talent is what makes you win PO games and ships, and you still need talent to play the "beautiful game". That's what PATFO didn't seem to realize or forgot, believing the "system" was above the players and they could produce winning BB with some average players just "developing" them within that system. Spurs don't need to change their system, they first need to bring more talent to this team. This isn't Pop's team but Victor's one...

Life is simple for you, you have a 7'5 generational talent on your team, why try to oustmart everyone with Sochans at PG, playmaking by committee or whatever. .So keep it simple and just first give the kid the talent that will help him express all his, then will make everyone around better within their definite roles.

[SpursBills]

Which of these 3 scenarios do you guys think would be the easiest / most likely from a developmental standpoint?

1. Teaching a poor shooting prospect to shoot at a reasonable level (Kawhi, Jaylen Brown)
2. Teaching a combo guard how to initiate and be a lead guard (Jamal Murray, CJ McCollum)
3. Teaching a terrible guard defender how to defend at a passable level (Jamal Murray again? Dennis Smith Jr)

Obviously no perfect guards in this draft, wanted to start a discussion on what kind of warts are the easiest to live with.

[Extra Stout]

Which of these 3 scenarios do you guys think would be the easiest / most likely from a developmental standpoint?

1. Teaching a poor shooting prospect to shoot at a reasonable level (Kawhi, Jaylen Brown)Multitudes of examples of this happening, at least to a reasonable level. But not to the level of a sharpshooter that makes teams pay for collapsing on Wemby.

2. Teaching a combo guard how to initiate and be a lead guard (Jamal Murray, CJ McCollum)Processing speed and vision can’t be taught.

3. Teaching a terrible guard defender how to defend at a passable level (Jamal Murray again? Dennis Smith Jr)You can teach fundamentals and effort, but you can’t teach Rob Dillingham’s shoulders to get much broader or his arms to get much longer.

[baseline bum]

Hang on to these receipts:

2024 NBA Draft Board
Tier 3:
1. Zaccharie Risacher
2. Alex Sarr
3. Nikola Topic
4. Matas Buzelis
Tier 4:
5. Reed Shephard
6. Cody Williams
7. Dalton Knecht
8. Isaiah Collier
Tier 5:
9. Robert Dillingham
10. Tidjane Salaun
11. Donovan Clingan
12. Stephen Castle
13. JaKobe Walter
14. Kyle Filipowski
15. Ron Holland
16. Johnny Furphy
Tier 6:
17. Ryan Dunn
18. Tyler Smith
19. Ke'lel Ware
20. Yves Missi
21. Zach Edey
22. Bobi Klintman
23. Kyshawn George
Tier 7:
24. Pacome Dadiet
25. Trevon Brazile
26. Kevin McCullar
27. Melvin Ajinca
28. Tyler Kolek
29. Tristan Da Silva
30. Pelle Larsson


FIFY. Tier 1 would be like Wemby or Luka. Tier 2 would be like Chet, Banchero, or Brandon Miller. This draft starts at Tier 3 at best.

[Extra Stout]

Looking at videos, Dilly is noticeably slighter than Trae Young. He is noticeably slighter than a rookie Tony Parker. I just don’t see how a player at that much of a physical disadvantage is playable in the NBA in anything other than a bench microwave role.

Sheppard is not exactly a physical specimen, but at least he looks the size of a basketball player.

My fear is that PATFO evaluate Dilly through the eyes of Tony nostalgia, and not objectively.

[baseline bum]

Looking at videos, Dilly is noticeably slighter than Trae Young. He is noticeably slighter than a rookie Tony Parker. I just don’t see how a player at that much of a physical disadvantage is playable in the NBA in anything other than a bench microwave role.

Sheppard is not exactly a physical specimen, but at least he looks the size of a basketball player.

My fear is that PATFO evaluate Dilly through the eyes of Tony nostalgia, and not objectively.

Here is Parker in the 01 Summer League

https://i.ibb.co/Z64MyY2/tp-summer-league.jpg

Whereas this is Dilly a couple of weeks after turning 19.

https://ukwildcatswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/122/2024/04/USATSI_22357645.jpg

I'm much more scared of the Spurs falling in love with Topic's size when he has no outside shot and no in-between game and the shooting coach is in OKC.

[LeBowen]

Here is Parker in the 01 Summer League I'm much more scared of the Spurs falling in love with Topic's size when he has no outside shot and no in-between game and the shooting coach is in OKC.

The two of us are going down as the biggest Topic haters in here.
We're in too deep, got to keep downplaying his potential now, too late to take it all back. :lol

As I've said many times, if he's not an outside threat, he just can't share the floor with Jeremy or any other non-shooter on guard/wing positions.
And if he's not good off the ball, then he's useless since he can't shoot or move.

[Extra Stout]

The two of us are going down as the biggest Topic haters in here.
We're in too deep, got to keep downplaying his potential now, too late to take it all back. :lol

As I've said many times, if he's not an outside threat, he just can't share the floor with Jeremy or any other non-shooter on guard/wing positions.
And if he's not good off the ball, then he's useless since he can't shoot or move.
If the Spurs really aren’t scouting him, then that means either they’re not interested at all, or they’ve made up their minds and he’s the guy. :lol But probably the former.

[LeBowen]

If the Spurs really aren’t scouting him, then that means either they’re not interested at all, or they’ve made up their minds and he’s the guy. :lol But probably the former.

Tbh, after all those reports about RC going to Slovenia a handful of times and still drafting Samanic, idk if their scouting is to be trusted. :lol

[Mr. Body]

Looking at videos, Dilly is noticeably slighter than Trae Young. He is noticeably slighter than a rookie Tony Parker. I just don’t see how a player at that much of a physical disadvantage is playable in the NBA in anything other than a bench microwave role.

Sheppard is not exactly a physical specimen, but at least he looks the size of a basketball player.

My fear is that PATFO evaluate Dilly through the eyes of Tony nostalgia, and not objectively.

Dillingham is very short and slight. I'm not entirely sure I buy him as taller than six foot. With shoes? Sure.

But I'm not sure what the appreciable difference between Parker, Sheppard, Dillingham, or Young is in terms of size.

What does size impact? Rebounding. Ability to guard bigs on switches.

That's... that's pretty much it. And none of those players are/were great rebounders or could guard an Embiid on a switch anyway. So what does it matter that Trae Young or Sheppard might be a little bit bigger or more muscular?

Of the four, I think Sheppard and Parker had a better base and could hold off at least some stronger players, but then I don't think Sheppard has the quickness to stay with a lot of guards in the league.

In the end, we have to pick a player who exists in this draft. I'm still not sure I want to take an iffy bigger player if I can get an absolutely needed skill set, some of which is elite. Maybe down the line there are sequences where a team starts targeting him deep in the playoffs, but we ain't there yet. I think I'd rather get that skillset, risk losing a handful of possessions due to positional size if I can win many more possessions on the other end.

[Ariel]

Reed's efficiency and impact numbers are frankly off the charts. the advanced stats all scream sheppard.

when comparing to dillingham though, its always the volume that catches my eye. as awesome as a shooter as reed is, dilly was taking more 3's per game and per 36 while still nailing a very high % of them. makes me question how easily he can get shots off in the nba without the same threat to penetrate that dilly has
When it comes to shooting a lot of this has to do with the degree of difficulty. Of course any smart and unselfish player will avoid taking a shot if they think there is a better one to be had by moving the ball, but sometimes that devolves into a game of hot potato where a player avoids taking a shot because it's not good in abstract eventhough it's unlikely the team will get a better one in that posession (e.g. deep 3s very late in the shot clock).

I'm not saying Sheppard is consciously avoiding risks to his team's detriment, but I have seen him catch and pass back when maybe he could have done more but he often seems too self aware (like Chet does at times), and I'd like to see a breakdown of his 3s by degree of difficulty (open / contested, off the catch / off the dribble) because the eye test tells me a significant part of his shooting efficiency is explained not only by his shooting proficiency (which is VERY real) but also by his role and how selective he is.

Dillingham on the other hand was tasked with having the ball in his hands during the most decisive moments and often had to take tougher shots (especially off the dribble) and the same goes for other prospects. As a son former bball players, he was probably very well trained early on into playing to his strengths and conceiling his shortcomings and that makes it harder to tell if there's some selfishness behind his (very high) iq.

[Extra Stout]

Or you could say that Sheppard has good shot selection.

[Ariel]

Or you could say that Sheppard has good shot selection.
Sure, but the point is whether he's selecting good shots for his team or for himself, and those 2 are not necessarily the same thing. Sometimes you taking a suboptimal shot may be the best route for your team.

[Extra Stout]

Sure, the point is whether his selecting good shots for his team or for himself, and those 2 are not necessarily the same thing. Sometimes you taking a suboptimal shot may be the best route for your team.
For Sheppard’s likely role, he wouldn’t be called upon to create too much. So the shot discipline is what you’d want.

[spurraider21]

Sheppard was playing about 30 minutes per game and averaged 4.6 3pa per game, which is a lower rate on a per minute basis than, say, champagnie (about 5.5 per 30 minutes)

dillingham played less minutes than sheppard but shot as many 3's. if you adjusted the numbers to reflect the minutes, he took about 5.9 3's per 30.

i still like sheppard quite a bit (more than Topic), but im not deluding myself into thinking there's a sound reason to pick him over dilingham for offensive purposes. the reason you'd take sheppard over dilly is you are banking on him continuing to be an impactful defender due to his activity, instinct, timing, etc, even if he isnt that amazing at the point of attack

[Ariel]

For Sheppard’s likely role, he wouldn’t be called upon to create too much. So the shot discipline is what you’d want.
If by role you mean 6'1.5" off ball guard who thrives on open, catch and shoot 3s, then sorry but that kills the appeal for me when we're talking top 7/8. Again, very efficient, very fast release, clearly has a lot of range, super smart, very good passer, but I need to see a glimpse of tough shot making off the dribble as well to really get excited about drafting that kind of player, which is why I prefer Dillingham.

[Extra Stout]

If by role you mean 6'1.5" off ball guard who thrives on open, catch and shoot 3s, then sorry but that kills the appeal for me when we're talking top 7/8. Again, very efficient, very fast release, clearly has a lot of range, super smart, very good passer, but I need to see a glimpse of tough shot making off the dribble as well to really get excited about drafting that kind of player, which is why I prefer Dillingham.
7/8 in this draft is the equivalent of 15/16 in an average draft.

I want to believe in Dillingham. Maybe he has spent the time since the tournament bulking up and building strength and will weigh in at 180 and assuage concerns about his size.

[baseline bum]

7/8 in this draft is the equivalent of 15/16 in an average draft.

I want to believe in Dillingham. Maybe he has spent the time since the tournament bulking up and building strength and will weigh in at 180 and assuage concerns about his size.

Honestly it's not so much about believing in Dillingham as it is thinking he's one of the better options of an extremely underwhelming draft class and at a position of critical need. Though the odds are pretty decent he'll be gone by the time the Spurs pick anyways.

[Mr. Body]

If you watched enough Kentucky, you saw that Sheppard could or did not get his shot off against pressure. He was a very good off-ball shooter, a potentially incredible one. This was a reason why Dillingham was much more responsible in getting the offense going.

Dillingham was not often disrupted by contests. He'd drive past and pop or reposition for a three from a different angle. A lot of his clutch hits were with hands in his face.

I'm curious how workouts will go. Sheppard's hands on defense will shine on 2-on-2s. Dillingham may be hard for most players to cover.

[Dejounte]

If you watched enough Kentucky, you saw that Sheppard could or did not get his shot off against pressure. He was a very good off-ball shooter, a potentially incredible one. This was a reason why Dillingham was much more responsible in getting the offense going.

Dillingham was not often disrupted by contests. He'd drive past and pop or reposition for a three from a different angle. A lot of his clutch hits were with hands in his face.

I'm curious how workouts will go. Sheppard's hands on defense will shine on 2-on-2s. Dillingham may be hard for most players to cover.
IMO, Sheppard being excellent on catch and shoot 3’s may be enough if his passing shines as well as I think it will. His passing is a tier above Dillingham’s and may be the reason he stands shoulder to shoulder with him offensively.

[JPB]

The two of us are going down as the biggest Topic haters in here.
We're in too deep, got to keep downplaying his potential now, too late to take it all back. :lol

As I've said many times, if he's not an outside threat, he just can't share the floor with Jeremy or any other non-shooter on guard/wing positions.
And if he's not good off the ball, then he's useless since he can't shoot or move.

I beg to differ, Sir. I was passionately hating on Topic here when you mom still hadn't met your daddy...

but yeah, Topic is THE one guy I don't want spurs to pick either.

[spurraider21]

yeah i think sheppard will be just fine as a pick and roll handler with the ability to pull up in those situations if the defense ever goes under or sags too much. but if the shot clock is winding down and the ball finds its ways into his hands, that's going to be a scenario where he will struggle early on. he's still quite young, so its not like its impossible for him to improve his handle and footwork to get better at it though. it just requires more projection

[scott]

Reading all of your thoughts on guards is definitely selling me on the idea of taking wings (even in a double up scenario if TOR conveys). At this point, I'd even be more supportive of a Wing + Clingan/Filipowski draft over taking any of these guards.

[JPB]

Honestly it's not so much about believing in Dillingham as it is thinking he's one of the better options of an extremely underwhelming draft class and at a position of critical need. Though the odds are pretty decent he'll be gone by the time the Spurs pick anyways.

Problem is that critical need is not just finding a PG, but a solid starter at PG, and I'm really not sure that's what Dilly is. A good back up maybe, but not long term starter imo. So you have to ask yourself if it is really pertinent to add another back up/meh PG to this roster to develop next to Tre and Blake.

[Kevin]

Topic is only a thing because he's 6'7. No outside shot, questionable defense and athleticism but hey at least he's 6'7 and can pass.

He'll end up at PF sooner than later.

[Kevin]

Reading all of your thoughts on guards is definitely selling me on the idea of taking wings (even in a double up scenario if TOR conveys). At this point, I'd even be more supportive of a Wing + Clingan/Filipowski draft over taking any of these guards.

No centers. We already got one in Wemby with Barlow and Bassey coming off the bench. If we're talking C then Sarr should be at the top of the discussion.

[lefty]

We are still better than GSW tbh :


https://x.com/NBCSWarriors/status/1310629619171815427

[pad300]

I beg to differ, Sir. I was passionately hating on Topic here when you mom still hadn't met your daddy...

but yeah, Topic is THE one guy I don't want spurs to pick either.

All these guys hating on Topic, whereas I think he's the best guard prospect in the draft...

[scott]

No centers. We already got one in Wemby with Barlow and Bassey coming off the bench. If we're talking C then Sarr should be at the top of the discussion.

Barlow is a G-Leaguer and Bassey has no knees. I can understand not wanting to take a center, but if it's because we have Barlow and Bassey... we can do better (and I'm practically the president of the Bassey fan club).

And I'm talking about taking Clingan or Filipowski with the TOR pick, not a top 3 pick (like you'd have to do with Sarr). If Sarr were available at #8, then sure.

The more compelling reason not to take a C is that we've foolishly (in hindsight) invested $35MM over the next two years to one already. But if we can (hopefully) move off of him, it would be nice to have a backup C who isn't a massive negative swing when Wemby has to sit.

[rjv]

8 points, 6 assists and 4 rebounds today for Topic in the ABA league semi-final, btw.

[scott]

8 points, 6 assists and 4 rebounds today for Topic in the ABA league semi-final, btw.

Onl plaed 18 minutes and shot 3-7 (2-3 from 3). Hard to read too much into that statline in a blowout.

[baseline bum]

Problem is that critical need is not just finding a PG, but a solid starter at PG, and I'm really not sure that's what Dilly is. A good back up maybe, but not long term starter imo. So you have to ask yourself if it is really pertinent to add another back up/meh PG to this roster to develop next to Tre and Blake.

Dillingham is probably starting material after a year or two backing Tre up. Wesley doesn't enter into the equation of who the Spurs should draft any more than Mamu, Champagnie, or Branham does. You improve where you can, you don't just say screw it there's no Luka in this draft.

[pad300]

Onl plaed 18 minutes and shot 3-7 (2-3 from 3). Hard to read too much into that statline in a blowout.

How Many TO's?

[CGD]

Onl plaed 18 minutes and shot 3-7 (2-3 from 3). Hard to read too much into that statline in a blowout.

Would much rather have Topic than the KU guards. None of these PGs are coming in and turning around the team next season, so go with excellent bbiq and size for the position. And unlike Castle (who I also like), Topic’s FT% is good suggesting his shot potential is there.

[baseline bum]

Reading all of your thoughts on guards is definitely selling me on the idea of taking wings (even in a double up scenario if TOR conveys). At this point, I'd even be more supportive of a Wing + Clingan/Filipowski draft over taking any of these guards.

The wings aren't any better than the point guards though. No shot Buzelis, no game just athleticism Holland, game fell of a cliff Risacher, no motor Williams, shooter who can't shoot Walters, draft a wing and you have no shortage of disappointing prospects to choose from. They're even higher risk since there is no Dillingham or Sheppard who have high quality bench player floors other than maybe Risacher.

[baseline bum]

Would much rather have Topic than the KU guards. None of these PGs are coming in and turning around the team next season, so go with excellent bbiq and size for the position. And unlike Castle (who I also like), Topic’s FT% is good suggesting his shot potential is there.

Ricky Rubio was an 84% free throw shooter. Tre Jones too. I'd probably take Topic fifth since he is a gifted passer with good size, might be able to talk me into fourth over Buzelis. No way I'd take him over Dillingham, Risahcer, or Sheppard though. Having no in between game and no three point shot means he will never get to the rim in the NBA as it stands now. He would be an enormous project.

[mo7888]

FIFY. Tier 1 would be like Wemby or Luka. Tier 2 would be like Chet, Banchero, or Brandon Miller. This draft starts at Tier 3 at best.

My tiers are only used to compare players in a specific draft. It's not an 'all time' measurement. If it were we'd only have a Tier 1 every 15-20 years or so... I'm on record as this being a piss poor draft...

[baseline bum]

My tiers are only used to compare players in a specific draft. It's not an 'all time' measurement. If it were we'd only have a Tier 1 every 15-20 years or so... I'm on record as this being a piss poor draft...

IDK I'd have considered at least Anthony Davis, Luka, and Zion Tier 1 prospects at the time they were picked.

[scott]

The wings aren't any better than the point guards though. No shot Buzelis, no game just athleticism Holland, game fell of a cliff Risacher, no motor Williams, shooter who can't shoot Walters, draft a wing and you have no shortage of disappointing prospects to choose from. They're even higher risk since there is no Dillingham or Sheppard who have high quality bench player floors other than maybe Risacher.

I disagree. The wings I like (Buzelis, Holland, Risacher, in that order) don't have insurmountable flaws the way the top guards do (Dilly - too small/would prob get bullied by Caitlyn Clark; Sheppard - too slow/not actually a PG). The wings have flaws, but ones that are typical of of 19-year-olds who need to continue to develop. of PGs, Topic might have the least number of fatal flaws, it just looks like he's actually not that good. Collier is a project but might be best equipped for the next level. Castle and McCain I'm not sure are PGs, but I'd feel more comfortable with than the first 3.

Of course, I will add the disclaimer that I don't know wtf I'm talking about and am probably wrong.

[Ariel]

Dillingham is probably starting material after a year or two backing Tre up. Wesley doesn't enter into the equation of who the Spurs should draft any more than Mamu, Champagnie, or Branham does. You improve where you can, you don't just say screw it there's no Luka in this draft.
I'd have no problem with Spurs starting Tre even drafting Dillingham or Sheppard (in fact, I'd fully expect that). But to assume he's probably a 2 year backup to Tre is just insane to me, there's such a big talent gap and such a need for what he provides, that something would have to go very wrong for that to be the case. I mean, Pop started Jeremy Freaking Sochan over Tre!!! how much worse can Dillingham be? :lol
Also, Tre is expiring and if we can find a long term starter this season he might be included in whatever trade happens where he's regarded as positive value. Competent backup PGs aren't scarce in the NBA.

[CGD]

Ricky Rubio was an 84% free throw shooter. Tre Jones too. I'd probably take Topic fifth since he is a gifted passer with good size, might be able to talk me into fourth over Buzelis. No way I'd take him over Dillingham, Risahcer, or Sheppard though. Having no in between game and no three point shot means he will never get to the rim in the NBA as it stands now. He would be an enormous project.

Man, id happily take Topic if the comp is Rubio. The NBA has also changed a lot since 2009, so unlike then, they’d have to draft him knowing the shot would be top priority for development.

I also would prioritize the wing first like Risacher, but would take Topic over the KU guards for many of the reasons (their serious limitations) described extensively in this thread already.

[baseline bum]

I disagree. The wings I like (Buzelis, Holland, Risacher, in that order) don't have insurmountable flaws the way the top guards do (Dilly - too small/would prob get bullied by Caitlyn Clark; Sheppard - too slow/not actually a PG). The wings have flaws, but ones that are typical of of 19-year-olds who need to continue to develop. of PGs, Topic might have the least number of fatal flaws, it just looks like he's actually not that good. Collier is a project but might be best equipped for the next level. Castle and McCain I'm not sure are PGs, but I'd feel more comfortable with than the first 3.

Of course, I will add the disclaimer that I don't know wtf I'm talking about and am probably wrong.

I mean we watched Tony Parker come in as a 6'2" in shoes 177 lb PG who looked like a kid on draft day and he turned out fine with the strength program the Spurs put him on so I don't think his size is the fatal flaw you're projecting.

[baseline bum]

Man, id happily take Topic if the comp is Rubio. The NBA has also changed a lot since 2009, so unlike then, they’d have to draft him knowing the shot would be top priority for development.

I also would prioritize the wing first like Risacher, but would take Topic over the KU guards for many of the reasons (their serious limitations) described extensively in this thread already.

What if it's Rubio minus the defense?

[scott]

I mean we watched Tony Parker come in as a 6'2" in shoes 177 lb PG who looked like a kid on draft day and he turned out fine with the strength program the Spurs put him on so I don't think his size is the fatal flaw you're projecting.

Sure, and Bob Cousy was once League MVP so maybe Sheppard can be too.

[baseline bum]

Sure, and Bob Cousy was once League MVP so maybe Sheppard can be too.

You think Parker wouldn't be a star today?

[CGD]

Hang on to these receipts:

My Spurs Board Top 10

1. Matas Buzelis
2. Zaccharie Risacher
3. Nikola Topic
4. Alexander Sarr
5. Cody Williams
6. Reed Shephard
7. Dalton Knecht
8. Isaiah Collier
9. Tidjane Salaun
10. Robert Dillingham

There will be some changes between now and draft day after we get true measurements and workout reports, but I'll give you those too...

Interesting list. I like Matas but I’m surprised you have him 1, that said, I do think he will be one of the guys that will benefit most from the combine and 1-1 workouts. I forget he hasn’t been playing for a while now.

I struggle with Sarr, but as TIMVP notes, at some point you have to preserve the asset so there is that. I personally would move Salange into the top 6. Otherwise I see the world mostly the same.

[dbestpro]

The Spurs are taking Dillingham. Next question.

[CGD]

You think Parker wouldn't be a star today?

It’s an interesting question. Do you think he develops a reliable 3? Tony was a masterful midrange player, but not sure that would be enough today.

I think he’d still be good, don’t get it twisted.

[JPB]

Dillingham is probably starting material after a year or two backing Tre up. Wesley doesn't enter into the equation of who the Spurs should draft any more than Mamu, Champagnie, or Branham does. You improve where you can, you don't just say screw it there's no Luka in this draft.

That's where I disagree.

I don't believe you should pick a PG no matter what just because you need one, indepnedently of quailty, if that's another guy who may end up on your bench. That's precisely how spurs ended up with Wesley, who may have been a top 10 pick this year, lottery for sure, and many spurs fans had great expectations for... 2 years later, "he's not into the equation anymore". Not to mention Primo...

Let's not fantasize too much about these kids, specially this year. As Givony mentioned in his last mock draft Dilly is a very polarizing player and many throughout the league doubt he's a starter in a winning team

Wemby needs help and I personnally don't wanna see him spending the next two years with Tre and a developing rookie with uncertain potential as his PGs. Reason why I'm in the trade for Trae or Murray train. I'm with Scott here, might as well look somewhere else and pick SFs or frontcourt players in this draft (then use FA/trades to get your quality guards).

If Dilly turns out to be meh, that's would be 3 PGs picked in 4 years (4 in 5 years if you add Tre in the SR) picked wthout finding your starter... Tre, Primo, Wesley, Dilly... Maybe it's time to forget the draft to find it.

[rjv]

Onl plaed 18 minutes and shot 3-7 (2-3 from 3). Hard to read too much into that statline in a blowout.

yeah, at this point it's really more about his appearing to be healthy than much of anything else at this point. i'm not saying anything, one way or another, about what i personally think of him though.

[objective]

I think Dillingham is more likely to be a 6th man microwave offensive lead than a starter. Obviously Keldon can't make a second unit work around him, and Dilly is the kind of aggressive on ball attacker and shotmaker who could get his own and generate, but because of his other flaws should be a bench player.

I could see Shepperd better as a starter who would orbit Wemby and be a great connective player, hit ahead early offense, calming presence to run basic sets and pick and rolls worse whose shooting is so absurdly good he makes things work.

I would be fine with either. Shepperd does have some defensive pluses that could mitigate his minuses, and that makes him better short term.

[Ariel]

I don't believe you should pick a PG no matter what just because you need one, indepnedently of quailty, if that's another guy who may end up on your bench. That's precisely how spurs ended up with Wesley, who may have been a top 10 pick this year, lottery for sure, and many spurs fans had great expectations for... 2 years later, "he's not into the equation anymore". Not to mention Primo...

If Dilly turns out to be meh, that's would be 3 PGs picked in 4 years (4 in 5 years if you add Tre in the SR) picked wthout finding your starter... Tre, Primo, Wesley, Dilly... Maybe it's time to forget the draft to find it.
Wesley was a very raw combo guard and a FLYER at 25 (as most late picks are). Tre was a SECOND ROUND pick, and Primo wasn't a PG, he was a SG who they tried to turn into a playmaking combo guard until he decided to go for "shorter shorts". To try to portray the Spurs as biased towards picking PGs is completely at odds with reality.

[JPB]

The wings aren't any better than the point guards though. No shot Buzelis, no game just athleticism Holland, game fell of a cliff Risacher, no motor Williams, shooter who can't shoot Walters, draft a wing and you have no shortage of disappointing prospects to choose from. They're even higher risk since there is no Dillingham or Sheppard who have high quality bench player floors other than maybe Risacher.

No offense but "game fell off a cliff" for a few months in 19 kid first pro season might be a tad exagerrated...

For the record, here's Risacher stats his last 4 games in front of an army of NBA scouts:

14.3pt, 6.5rb, 60% shooting, 40% on 3 (5/12), 82% FT (14/17) in 25min.

Not to bad for a kid whose game fell off a cliff (and that's in a competitive pro league).

[LeBowen]

I guess I'll have to copy/paste the European point guard post yet again.
Here's the most important bit.

Foreign* guards in recent drafts:
2022: #7 Dyson Daniels
2021: #6 Josh Giddey
2020: #7 Killian Hayes
2018: #3 Luka Doncic
2017: #8 Frank Ntilikina
2015: #5 Mario Hezonja, #7 Emmanuel Mudiay
2014: #27 Bogdan Bogdanovic (came over in 2017 at 25 years old)
2013: #17 Dennis Schroeder

*Foreign as in NBA being their first American basketball experience, I'm not counting foreign players that went to college.

You have to go all the way back to 2009 and Ricky Rubio to find another legit European point guard and he was the biggest Euro point guard prospect until Luka.

Comparing Topic to Rubio is insulting.

Anyhow, all these guys have way too high bust potential. While if you draft a wing with solid size, you can always turn him into KBD or similar.

[Ariel]

I guess I'll have to copy/paste the European point guard post yet again.
Here's the most important bit.

Foreign* guards in recent drafts:
2022: #7 Dyson Daniels
2021: #6 Josh Giddey
2020: #7 Killian Hayes
2018: #3 Luka Doncic
2017: #8 Frank Ntilikina
2015: #5 Mario Hezonja, #7 Emmanuel Mudiay
2014: #27 Bogdan Bogdanovic (came over in 2017 at 25 years old)
2013: #17 Dennis Schroeder

*Foreign as in NBA being their first American basketball experience, I'm not counting foreign players that went to college.

You have to go all the way back to 2009 and Ricky Rubio to find another legit European point guard and he was the biggest Euro point guard prospect until Luka.

Comparing Topic to Rubio is insulting.

Anyhow, all these guys have way too high bust potential. While if you draft a wing with solid size, you can always turn him into KBD or similar.
I'm pretty sure a lot of franchises followed the same logic when they talked themselves out of Giannis, Jokic or Luka (yes, even he was passed for Ayton and Bagley). Any argument that starts with finding patterns based on where someone was born belongs in the garbage.

[mo7888]

IDK I'd have considered at least Anthony Davis, Luka, and Zion Tier 1 prospects at the time they were picked.

Luka wasn't projected to go #1 in his draft, Ayton was, so he'd have to be tier #1 if you include Luka (and I think Bagley went #2 so he'd be there too if we include Luka). Remember, tiers are pre-draft. Laka would be there if we were re-ranking after the fact.

[JPB]

Wesley was a very raw combo guard and a FLYER at 25 (as most late picks are). Tre was a SECOND ROUND pick, and Primo wasn't a PG, he was a SG who they tried to turn into a playmaking combo guard until he decided to go for "shorter shorts". To try to portray the Spurs as biased towards picking PGs is completely at odds with reality.

At the end of the day, they picked all these kids to play PG, and 5 years in (where they picked 9, 11 and 12) still haven't their starter throught the draft, notably passing on guys like Maxey or haliburton these last few years... sure they had Dejounte until up 2022 but still.

To such a point (pun intended) they had to try Sochan there... That's obviously a big failure.

[mo7888]

Interesting list. I like Matas but I’m surprised you have him 1, that said, I do think he will be one of the guys that will benefit most from the combine and 1-1 workouts. I forget he hasn’t been playing for a while now.

I struggle with Sarr, but as TIMVP notes, at some point you have to preserve the asset so there is that. I personally would move Salange into the top 6. Otherwise I see the world mostly the same.

My top 3 are really close and I'd be fine with any. Sarr, i don't like the fit, but I can't drop him lower based on bpa there. Ibreally like the Salaun upside, but the downside is more likely than the guys above (who also have upside), at least in my mind.

[baseline bum]

Luka wasn't projected to go #1 in his draft, Ayton was, so he'd have to be tier #1 if you include Luka (and I think Bagley went #2 so he'd be there too if we include Luka). Remember, tiers are pre-draft. Laka would be there if we were re-ranking after the fact.

I'm going by what tier I would have rated them. I badly wanted Doncic in that draft in exchange for Kawhi to the Kings when he was a teenager who won Euroleague MVP in a league where they hate playing NBA bound teenagers.

[JPB]

I'm pretty sure a lot of franchises followed the same logic when they talked themselves out of Giannis, Jokic or Luka (yes, even he was passed for Ayton and Bagley). Any argument that starts with finding patterns based on where someone was born belongs in the garbage.

sorry but that's not true. First of all we're talking PGs here, so Giannis or Jokic are ot of the discussions. And second, long term stats clearly show there are very few foreign PGs who succeeded, even as decent back up in the NBA... Even when they come in their prime like Teodosic and Micic, 2 Euroleague MVPs.

PG is a very particular position.

[Ariel]

At the end of the day, they picked all these kids to play PG, and 5 years in (where they picked 9, 11 and 12) still haven't their starter throught the draft, notably passing on guys like Maxey or haliburton these last few years... sure they had Dejounte until up 2022 but still.

To such a point (pun intended) they had to try Sochan there... That's obviously a big failure.
Well... maybe it's time they draft an ACTUAL PG to play PG, that should go a long way into ending the failed experiments, don't you think? Personally I think Wemby would love Dillingham.

[baseline bum]

That's where I disagree.

I don't believe you should pick a PG no matter what just because you need one, indepnedently of quailty, if that's another guy who may end up on your bench. That's precisely how spurs ended up with Wesley, who may have been a top 10 pick this year, lottery for sure, and many spurs fans had great expectations for... 2 years later, "he's not into the equation anymore". Not to mention Primo...

Let's not fantasize too much about these kids, specially this year. As Givony mentioned in his last mock draft Dilly is a very polarizing player and many throughout the league doubt he's a starter in a winning team

Wemby needs help and I personnally don't wanna see him spending the next two years with Tre and a developing rookie with uncertain potential as his PGs. Reason why I'm in the trade for Trae or Murray train. I'm with Scott here, might as well look somewhere else and pick SFs or frontcourt players in this draft (then use FA/trades to get your quality guards).

If Dilly turns out to be meh, that's would be 3 PGs picked in 4 years (4 in 5 years if you add Tre in the SR) picked wthout finding your starter... Tre, Primo, Wesley, Dilly... Maybe it's time to forget the draft to find it.

I'm not saying you have to pick a point guard. I'm saying don't hold out for another Luka to take a PG. You wouldn't get him anyways even if there was another one because he'd go #1. Wesley seemed like another well let's draft for size at the PG just like Primo and George Hill and of the three Wesley is the only one not a defensive traffic cone anyways.

[TD 21]

I guess I'll have to copy/paste the European point guard post yet again.
Here's the most important bit.

Foreign* guards in recent drafts:
2022: #7 Dyson Daniels
2021: #6 Josh Giddey
2020: #7 Killian Hayes
2018: #3 Luka Doncic
2017: #8 Frank Ntilikina
2015: #5 Mario Hezonja, #7 Emmanuel Mudiay
2014: #27 Bogdan Bogdanovic (came over in 2017 at 25 years old)
2013: #17 Dennis Schroeder

*Foreign as in NBA being their first American basketball experience, I'm not counting foreign players that went to college.

You have to go all the way back to 2009 and Ricky Rubio to find another legit European point guard and he was the biggest Euro point guard prospect until Luka.

Comparing Topic to Rubio is insulting.

Anyhow, all these guys have way too high bust potential. While if you draft a wing with solid size, you can always turn him into KBD or similar.

Hezonja was/is a wing and Bogdanovic was a combo guard who has been more of an off guard in the NBA.

Not really a Topic guy (at least for the Spurs), but he debatably (Schroder) has more primary creator potential than all but Doncic.

[JPB]

Well... maybe it's time they draft an ACTUAL PG to play PG, that should go a long way into ending the failed experiments, don't you think? Personally I think Wemby would love Dillingham.

You have a "point" here...

With in mind that all we guys perorations stay what they are until we know where the spurs actually draft... If they pick #1, I believe they go with Risacher. #2, I'm not sure, prabably Sarr or try to trade down... Lower, they may indeed go with Dilly.

[Ariel]

sorry but that's not true. First of all we're talking PGs here, so Giannis or Jokic are ot of the discussions. And second, long term stats clearly show there are very few foreign PGs who succeeded, even as decent back up in the NBA... Even when they come in their prime like Teodosic and Micic, 2 Euroleague MVPs.

PG is a very particular position.
You might be talking PGs, I'm talking about a fallacious reasoning that ends in disaster. But if you want to go for PGs, then how about Tony? Some passed on him because he was from France and surely that meant he couldn't be successful. What was the previous great French PG in the league? Point is, you should focus on actual merit rather than race/nationality, you see people fall for that trap all the time in player comparisons, it does you a disservice when analyzing the actual bball player.

[LeBowen]

I'm pretty sure a lot of franchises followed the same logic when they talked themselves out of Giannis, Jokic or Luka (yes, even he was passed for Ayton and Bagley). Any argument that starts with finding patterns based on where someone was born belongs in the garbage.

I guess I should've copy/pasted the entire post. #2888 in this topic.
I legit said after that list that this is just for guards and not forwards/bigs that have been doing great.
And I also said Luka and Rubio were obvious must pick prospects you can't miss.

Jokic and Giannis were both incredibly raw and weren't guards.

The reality is that while Topic obviously has upside and potential, there's too many red flags and negatives that need fixing.

We need a point guard who can:
1. Shoot the damn ball. And not in the Tre Jones way of hitting open corner 3s, but being a legit pull up threat in PNR, someone you can't sag off or go under. That's why people want Trae. With a point guard who has deep range, Wemby is unguardable. If you have to hedge/ice/blitz the screen and chase the ballhandler around Wemby, it's over. It's always either two points for Wemby or people wide open in the corners. It's that damn simple.
2. Pass the damn ball. Tre Jones is a servicable player, won't let you down because you know what you're getting from him. But his passing repertoire is quite limited. You won't see any risky or unexpected passes for him. Textbook backup point guard, nothing wrong with that, but we need someone to unlock more spaces.
3. Get to the rim and draw some fouls. Other than Keldon and his out of control drives, we have noone who's not scared of attacking the rim and creating contact. As we can see in these playoffs, one of the most important skills a guard can have in today's league.
4. Be a point of attack defender. Right now we have noone. Jeremy is a wing and it's unfair to expect him to guard elite point guards. We need someone who's capable of chasing people around screens, making ballhandlers uncomfortable and generating fastbreak points.

Obivously we won't find someone with all these skills, but I'd say that number 2 and 3 are a must. Then either great shooting or great defense.
I wouldn't have anything against getting a let's say Rondo.
But I most definitely don't want someone like Topic who's good at only one of those four skills. Defense is a write off because he's terrible, getting to the rim and shooting are questionable. Two years away from maybe being two years away.
Someone also posted the stats from his last game, I also wrote about that.
To put things into perspective, his team was second last in Euroleague, but something like 22-4 in ABA. With heavy rotation and most important players often sitting. Could easily get 100% winrate if they wanted.
The gap between those two leagues is about as big as G-league to play-in level teams.

Some will say that defense isn't that important because he has size. Yeah, we can put him on a weak wing who just sits in the corner. But what about opposing guards? We still don't have anyone who's going to be the point of attack defender.
I don't want a single one of these players who need to change their entire game instead of improving their skillset.


Hezonja was/is a wing and Bogdanovic was a combo guard who has been more of an off guard in the NBA.

Not really a Topic guy (at least for the Spurs), but he debatably (Schroder) has more primary creator potential than all but Doncic.

Hezonja was definitely projected as a shooting guard when drafted, he was somewhat hyped up as a prospect.
I listed all the guards, not just point guards.
Bogdanovic coming over late definitely helped him.

[onechance87]

we gotta draft topic.....If topic can improve his shot,You can have potentially a great duo for the next several years with wemby
and topic.He is still young,So can for sure may improve.

[Bruno]

The opportunity to truly judge Topic will be in 10 days with the start of the ABA final. This final will likely be between Red Star and Partizan, 2 euroleague teams. If Topic can perform there, it will be for sure impressive.

[onechance87]

The opportunity to truly judge Topic will be in 10 days with the start of the ABA final. This final will likely be between Red Star and Partizan, 2 euroleague teams. If Topic can perform there, it will be for sure impressive.

we dont want him to perform to well....or he will be gone in top 3 :)

[LeBowen]

we dont want him to perform to well....or he will be gone in top 3 :)

Spurs are getting the point guard they want unless we drop below Jazz or Rockets.
Both Wizards and Spurs dropping would be the worst outcome. Wizards most likely also want Sarr or Risacher, but they'd maybe take a point guard if those two are taken before their pick.
Hornets, Pistons, Blazers, Raptors and Grizzlies definitely won't take a point guard.

On the other hand, I don't think there's a chance Spurs get Risacher if we don't move into top3.

[spurraider21]

grain of salt, etc

1786510160833180015

[scott]

You think Parker wouldn't be a star today?

If he's the same Tony Parker, then no I don't think so. I think his lack of a 3-ball I think would limit him in today's NBA... but I also think if Tony Parker were 19 years old today he might have developed his game differently and perhaps would have a 3-ball. It's just so hard to compare players of different eras, which is more of my point than in any way trying to knock Parker. I just don't think a comparison to Parker's size is relevant, anymore than it would be comparing someone to Bob Cousy or John Stockton or Craig Ehlo or Scott Skiles or Nash or AI. I just don't see how any of that is relevant to today. Trae Young's size makes him a defensive liability that we all acknowledge, but you only deal with it because of the offensive prowess that he brings. Dilly will have the same defensive liability with maybe a 2% chance of reaching Trae's offensive output.

[onechance87]

what yall guys think about nikola djurisic

[LeBowen]

If he's the same Tony Parker, then no I don't think so. I think his lack of a 3-ball I think would limit him in today's NBA... but I also think if Tony Parker were 19 years old today he might have developed his game differently and perhaps would have a 3-ball. It's just so hard to compare players of different eras, which is more of my point than in any way trying to knock Parker. I just don't think a comparison to Parker's size is relevant, anymore than it would be comparing someone to Bob Cousy or John Stockton or Craig Ehlo or Scott Skiles or Nash or AI. I just don't see how any of that is relevant to today. Trae Young's size makes him a defensive liability that we all acknowledge, but you only deal with it because of the offensive prowess that he brings. Dilly will have the same defensive liability with maybe a 2% chance of reaching Trae's offensive output.

Morant is at 31% from deep for his career and he's seen as one of the best point guards in the league.
Am I too much of a homer to think that Tony was on the same level? Forget all those fancy dunks, Tony led the league in FG% at the rim for two years.

[scott]

grain of salt, etc

1786510160833180015

Now this is some very interesting, insightful news, IMO.

[scott]

Morant is at 31% from deep for his career and he's seen as one of the best point guards in the league.
Am I too much of a homer to think that Tony was on the same level? Forget all those fancy dunks, Tony led the league in FG% at the rim for two years.

Sure, but I don't see Ja and Tony as playing similar styles of game. If you take an exact replica of Tony Parker and put it in today's NBA, I don't think he is nearly as successful. But if Tony were a kid just entering the league, he is good enough of an athlete and basketball player to where his game probably fits better.

But again, I just don't see the point in these types of comparisons. Ja doesn't play like Tony, and neither does Dillingham.

[spurraider21]

Now this is some very interesting, insightful news, IMO.
fwiw within the tiers it looks like they're just alphabetical

[scott]

Clingan and Castle in tier 2 is very interesting - not because it's crazy or anything but that it finally helps us shed some light on how teams are viewing the talent in this year's class

[alfahdlan]

I have seen the pick and roll clips of Sheppard and I'm convinced that he'll thrive in a Tony Parker role as head of the snake in the Pick in Roll and Pick and Pop's Spurs scheme.

[Dejounte]

Clingan and Castle in tier 2 is very interesting - not because it's crazy or anything but that it finally helps us shed some light on how teams are viewing the talent in this year's class

IMO, I don’t think there’s any deep analysis behind how these guys are placed into these tiers. I think they’re in the tier they’re in because of their success in college. For the non-international guys, anyway. They probably even do aggregation across multiple mock drafts. This is the same league that uses the media, like fucking Kendrick Perkins, for their votes on who the DPOY should be. That’s how silly the league is.

[scott]

IMO, I don’t think there’s any deep analysis behind how these guys are placed into these tiers. I think they’re in the tier they’re in because of their success in college. For the non-international guys, anyway. They probably even do aggregation across multiple mock drafts. This is the same league that uses the media, like fucking Kendrick Perkins, for their votes on who the DPOY should be. That’s how silly the league is.

Per Givony's tweet, the rankings are voted on by the teams. So unless he is misstating, I think that is pretty insightful.

[Limguogolo]

No offense but "game fell off a cliff" for a few months in 19 kid first pro season might be a tad exagerrated...

For the record, here's Risacher stats his last 4 games in front of an army of NBA scouts:

14.3pt, 6.5rb, 60% shooting, 40% on 3 (5/12), 82% FT (14/17) in 25min.

Not to bad for a kid whose game fell off a cliff (and that's in a competitive pro league).
Interesting indeed.


Victor with the Metropolitans 92:
21.6pts at 47% and 27% at 3pts in 32min
Victor with the Spurs:
21.4pts at 46.5% and 32.5% at 3pts in 30min


Very similar stats.


Risacher in ProA:
10pts at 51% and 35% at 3pts in 22m
Risacher in EuroCup (23games):
11.3pts at 54.1% and 45% at 3pts in 23m
(Not only 3s if you shoot 50%.)


Salaün in ProA:
9pts at 37,6% and 33,6% at 3pts in 23m
Salaün in Champions League:
10pts at 43% and 29.5% at 3pts in 24m


Champagnie with the Spurs:
6.8pts at 40% and 36% at 3pts in 20m


Salaün and Risacher are certainly far better defenser than Champagnie. So it's only stats obviously but if we consider that a player can reproduce the same statistics from one league to another with an additional year of experience and an identical role (Salaün and Risacher are role players in their team) -- which is not obviously never quite the case -- there would already be added value by comparing with Champagnie. Do you want to have a PG? Take one with Toronto pick (Topic, Juan Núñez or other), and get Nadir Hifi who is a 22-year-old undrafted player in July who can play scoring PG off the bench.


Nadir Hifi in ProA:
15.7 at 47% and 38% at 3pts in 21m
Nadir Hifi in EuroCup:
16.6 at 46% and 36% at 3pts in 22m
4th best scorer in the competition (won, against Risacher's team)


Hifi is 6'1, but very athletic (Patty Mills is 6'2)


Btw, why Juan Núñez is that low in the draft? % ? Put your first pick in the starting lineup to shoot 3s, and then, ask Hifi, or another scoring PG to run the show from the bench with Keldon. If you want a PG to give the ball to Victor (and if you can't get one on the market, it being understood that if you want to win straight away, a veteran PG will always be better than a young one -- Garlant?), Topic and Núñez are perfect.

[objective]

There was a very interesting Locked on Jazz episode with David Locke doing a numbers breakdown only, and some of his number breakdown was very informative, he also went into how the numbers saw past drafts, including mentioning how the numbers red flagged Primo for negative athleticism, and ain't that the truth for old Cement Shoes Joshy. He didn't really go into the athleticism numbers thing this time but I think I remember it being based on transition scoring + rim finishing with attempts factored.

Anyways of course the numbers went berserk for Shepperd who actually came out much better athletically than Dillingham.

Some of the names who arguably came close to Shepperd numbers both shooting and as a pick and roll operator were Marcus Sasser and Desmond Bane. But even those weren't exactly close matches.

[Dejounte]

Per Givony's tweet, the rankings are voted on by the teams. So unless he is misstating, I think that is pretty insightful.

It would serve an NBA team no good to send their actual big board to the NBA, especially in this day and age where things get leaked. I’m thinking strategic here. What each team provided is probably the consensus. That, to me at least, would be common sense given the risks of exposing your intentions to other teams.

[Ariel]

It would serve an NBA team no good to send their actual big board to the NBA, especially in this day and age where things get leaked. I’m thinking strategic here. What each team provided is probably the consensus. That, to me at least, would be common sense given the risks of exposing your intentions to other teams.
Yup, and that is why it's assumed to be the case by the league, as evidenced by the very wide range of teams receiving those medicals (1: top 10, 2-6: top 15, 7-10: top 25).

[Dejounte]

The Spurs would hate it if they lost their Josh Primo from this draft because their big board leaked tbh

[scott]

It would serve an NBA team no good to send their actual big board to the NBA, especially in this day and age where things get leaked. I’m thinking strategic here. What each team provided is probably the consensus. That, to me at least, would be common sense given the risks of exposing your intentions to other teams.

Even still, if every team was just sending in what they thought was the "consensus" rather then their own big board, it means that most teams view Clingan and Castle as consensus "Tier 2" prospects. Unless they are all just mailing it in and sending in whatever their favorite mock draft is.

[spurraider21]

Even still, if every team was just sending in what they thought was the "consensus" rather then their own big board, it means that most teams view Clingan and Castle as consensus "Tier 2" prospects. Unless they are all just mailing it in and sending in whatever their favorite mock draft is.
it would all be anonymous so its not like you are giving your board away. sure maybe teams picking in the top 10 may game it to sway what tier a player falls in, but the rest of the teams might want medicals on guys that could fall to them, their competitors, or guys they possibly would trade up for.

[BackHome]

what yall guys think about nikola djurisic

He is one of my top second round picks I like what he brings for a 6'8 SG - My other favorite foreign pick would be Pacome Dadiet a 6'8 SF

[PhantomDashCam]

1786514730401567009

[onechance87]

He is one of my top second round picks I like what he brings for a 6'8 SG - My other favorite foreign pick would be Pacome Dadiet a 6'8 SF

seems like djurisic rising could be a 1st round pick.Seems to be shining these last several games.

[spurraider21]

Cody/Collier not in the top 10 per that list

[Mr. Body]

If he's the same Tony Parker, then no I don't think so. I think his lack of a 3-ball I think would limit him in today's NBA... but I also think if Tony Parker were 19 years old today he might have developed his game differently and perhaps would have a 3-ball. It's just so hard to compare players of different eras, which is more of my point than in any way trying to knock Parker. I just don't think a comparison to Parker's size is relevant, anymore than it would be comparing someone to Bob Cousy or John Stockton or Craig Ehlo or Scott Skiles or Nash or AI. I just don't see how any of that is relevant to today. Trae Young's size makes him a defensive liability that we all acknowledge, but you only deal with it because of the offensive prowess that he brings. Dilly will have the same defensive liability with maybe a 2% chance of reaching Trae's offensive output.

Tony Parker's career three point shooting was 32.4%. Trae Young's is 35.5%. Of course volume is a big part of it, but that's not a huge difference overall. Parker could have developed more from deep if they wanted. Also, imagine him in an era where perimeter defense isn't allowed and any contact by a driving player is called in their favor. He got knocked down all the time inside on shots. Those would be fouls now.

[BackHome]

Tankathon just came out with a new mock adjusting to players who opted to go back to college - There big boards has Topic #1 and Risacher #2 Sarr # 3 and Sheppard # 4 (SPURS) - Isiah Collier #14


NBA Draft Room has Topic # 2 - and Spurs taking Castle at # 5 and Raptors taking Risacher at #6

[rankingtear]

Per Givony's tweet, the rankings are voted on by the teams. So unless he is misstating, I think that is pretty insightful.

NBA sent teams not NBA teams sent. It is NBA own big board of sorts.

[spurraider21]

NBA sent teams not NBA teams sent. It is NBA own big board of sorts.
nope. nba teams anonymously sent the votes to the league, who compiled it and gave these results. the league then sent the results to the teams

per givony's tweet

[Mr. Body]

What we see from Evan Mobley in Cleveland is likely his best end outcome for Sarr. That's a player who can score efficiently but rarely, putting out little offensive gravity, but who can play very good defense. Cleveland fans seem to think he's already peaked (rather, came in fully developed). Sarr is behind where Mobley was when he entered the league, but it's hard to see him moving past him.

Not a bad thing, but in a vacuum it's hard to think of using a #1 pick for another Mobley.

[SpursBills]

I think there's a decent chance that Sheppard becomes not just a net neutral, but a positive on the defensive end but a lot will depend on his role in the future. Quick hands, elite bball IQ, and anticipation count for a lot, and he doesn't exactly have a slight frame even though he's short. He does get blown by a lot, his POA defense was poor this year, and he could get screened pretty easily. However, we literally just went through these same concerns last year with Brandin Podziemski - 6'5.5" wingspan and significant concerns about POA defense as he was getting blown by constantly at Santa Clara. However, he did have excellent bball IQ and anticipation, skills which allowed him to gain advantages in taking a shit load of charges this year while improving significantly at the point of attack. Hilariously, Kendrick Perkins put him on all-defense 2nd team which is a joke, but we can at least assume he's hasn't been a negative defender this year as he's been essentially a +0/+0 player by EPM in just his rookie year - impressive and honestly pretty rare.

Comparatively, I think Reed actually reads the game at an even higher level and has better hands and anticipation. He's probably got a shorter wingspan but generated way more stocks this year. He's not the elite guard rebounder Podz is, but there's definitely hope for him becoming a positive in a similar way between his anticipation in drawing charges and off-ball turnover generation. From the limited amount I've seen of him, he seems to be able to generate steals without sacrificing defensive position. If his shooting translates like we think it will and he has non-outlier improvement his tactical ball skills and functional strength, there's a decent chance he becomes like a +2/+1 offense/defense, which basically puts him in similar company to Desmond Bane or Jalen Suggs (for comparison, Derrick White was a top 25 player by EPM at +2.5/+1.7). That's not mind-blowing or anything, but it's definitely solid starter on a contender status level which isn't a bad outcome in this draft.



Dillingham probably has a higher ceiling, as guys like Trae Young or Jamal Murray are +4 offensive guys. But man, I have so many concerns with his defense that go beyond just what he looks like on film (which also isn't pretty).

1. dBPM of 0 (and actually negative dBPM against conference opponents, top 100, and top 50 teams) is impressively bad. I know dBPM is by no means the end-all, be-all, but even current bad NBA defenders did better than that. High dBPM doesn't mean shit about being a good NBA defender, but a poor dBPM is probably strongly correlated with being a poor NBA defender. Trae Young 1.7. Freshman Isaiah Thomas 1.3. Malaki Branham 0.4 (lol). Freshman Bryn Forbes -2.1 (lmao)

2. He's slight. I'm not going to belabor this point because it's been discussed enough, but I think most guys who were poor defenders who ended up turning into decent NBA defenders didn't have all 3 of being short, small wingspan, AND slight. For example Jamal Murray is bigger, Dennis Smith Jr is stronger and stouter with a larger wingspan.

3. He fouls a fuck ton. 4.5 fouls / 40 minutes means that if he actually played big minutes at Kentucky, he's probably fouling out a decent portion of his games. Nikola Topic also has a similar foul rate in Euroleague comp which is a major concern, but Dilly's doing this against college kids as opposed to grown men. A lot of this is probably technical and can be taught, but it's still a pretty major concern for me.

What's this mean for Dilly? Well, as I stated, his potential on offense is sky-high and I think it's not a stretch to think he can get to +4 or even higher. However, on defense there's no telling how bad he can be. If he's like your average star PG and he's just neutral to -1 like Brunson or Curry, he's probably going to be an all star player or close. But how low can he go? Malaki Branham was a -2.5 this year, and Anfernee Simons was a league worst -3.5. If his offense isn't absolutely elite, his defense might just turn him into a neutral player or worse.

There's also a discussion to be had that involves high-friction vs low-friction players and how that influences team building, but we can save that for another day.

For now, I'm probably taking Sheppard over Dilly knowing full well that Dilly could evolve into some Trae Young-Kyrie hybrid that makes this take look dumb as hell in a couple years.

[Mr. Body]

I think the Spurs will go for Sheppard for precisely those reasons. I don't personally think, however, that Sheppard will be an overall good defender. He will win possessions with his hands, but he's way too slow on man defense with poor reactions and poor lateral speed. He'll get bodied on switches the same way Dillingham will.

I'm more optimistic on Dillingham's defense than most. When you dig into people's stances on his defense, you get a lot of the same answers: poor positioning, bad rotations, not knowing what to do. These are all fixable. He played for Donda and then Overtime Elite, where he apparently wasn't taught a lick of defense, and he improved over his Kentucky tenure. I didn't see the grotesque, amazing mistakes he was making a few months before.

To me, he has at least the tools to become an alright perimeter defender that Sheppard doesn't - minus those hands. I don't buy that Sheppard is a better athlete. He might have better hops, but he's certainly far slower, both in speed and quickness. There was a reason no one on Kentucky could stick with Gohlke vs. Oakland except for Dillingham. Sheppard couldn't. Now, Dillingham blew things by helping off Gohlke on possessions, which was incredibly dumb. Does he just not understand basketball? Or does he need a lot of coaching up?

In the end, though, I think they'll take Sheppard.

[Ariel]

What we see from Evan Mobley in Cleveland is likely his best end outcome for Sarr. That's a player who can score efficiently but rarely, putting out little offensive gravity, but who can play very good defense. Cleveland fans seem to think he's already peaked (rather, came in fully developed). Sarr is behind where Mobley was when he entered the league, but it's hard to see him moving past him.

Not a bad thing, but in a vacuum it's hard to think of using a #1 pick for another Mobley.
I don't think Sarr will be as good defensively as Mobley, but I do see more promise on offense, he's shown flashes of being able to put the ball on the floor, drive, touch, that I think there's a scenario where he's definitely better than Mobley on that end. But in any case, IMO, it's a trap to think of this draft in terms of pick numbers. We just have to take whomever is best regardless of where said player would usually fall in a normal draft, if you think that's going to be Sarr, Dillingham, Sheppard, Risacher, Topic or whomever, then that's your guy wherever you pick.

[rankingtear]

nope. nba teams anonymously sent the votes to the league, who compiled it and gave these results. the league then sent the results to the teams

per givony's tweet

Just read the tweet it said a blend of public rankings + expert panel + retained scouting team.

[Bruno]

Givony mistakenly said the ranking was made by teams before fixing it. Here is the new version of his tweet:
https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1786522123562778821

While the idea of not oversharing personal medical data is great in theory, I find that it sucks in this case. Teams that don't have access to these records might be in position to draft these players with a draft day trade.

[Bruno]

https://twitter.com/blakebyler45/status/1786158186791125179

[JPB]

For now, I'm probably taking Sheppard over Dilly knowing full well that Dilly could evolve into some Trae Young-Kyrie hybrid that makes this take look dumb as hell in a couple years.

Dilly is just behind Topic in the players I hope spurs don't draft. Sheppard over him any day if you ipick a guard.

And I believe (like every single year) we're starting to see these kids a bit too much with the eyes of love... If Dilly had even a remote chance to become a Trae-Kyrie hybrid, he would be a no brainer in this meh draft. I beleive it's a success if you ever can get a decent starter out of him.

[Dejounte]

Givony mistakenly said the ranking was made by teams before fixing it. Here is the new version of his tweet:
https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1786522123562778821

While the idea of not oversharing personal medical data is great in theory, I find that it sucks in this case. Teams that don't have access to these records might be in position to draft these players with a draft day trade.

Ha! scott ;)

I also have been reading rumors that Givony is driven by (possibly paid off) a lot of draft politics, which is why you’ll never hear a peep from him when prospects don’t perform well. Pretty sad when you consider there’s people out there that rely on him for scouting reports.

[SpursBills]

Dilly is just behind Topic in the players I hope spurs don't draft. Sheppard over him any day if you ipick a guard.

And I believe (like every single year) we're starting to see these kids a bit too much with the eyes of love... If Dilly had even a remote chance to become a Trae-Kyrie hybrid, he would be a no brainer in this meh draft. I beleive it's a success if you ever can get a decent starter out of him.

Ha, the Trae-Kyrie bit was slight hyperbole on my part and written more for effect, but it does represent the 99 percentile outcome for Dilly. I mean realistically Dilly's median outcome is somewhere between Brandon Knight and Collin Sexton based on college performance and prior comps, but if we're talking realistic median outcomes, this entire draft class looks pretty bad.

Even Risacher, who's mocked #1 on a lot of mocks right now, looks terrible after his recent stretch. If you comp his entire age 19 season to Nic Batum at the same age playing in the same league, he's worse in pretty much every metric, and concerningly worse in certain feel and playmaking metrics that correlate with upside and development.

Not sure Castle is any better than Dyson Daniels when he came out.

You are right though regarding rose tinted glasses, I think maybe the best approach is that we try and hunt for upside and see the likelihood of hitting that upside while keeping median outcomes in mind.

[couchman]

My board has evolved a bit. Topic has dropped and Clingan moved up.

1. Risacher - 6’10” 3&D looks like his floor. That’s extremely valuable, even if he hasn’t shown much else, and it fits a Spurs need 100%
2. Sheppard - the best shooter in the draft plays mistake free ball and make opportunistic plays on D. That will translate immediately to a good rotation role with room to grown if his ball handling evolves
3. Clingan - Poeltl but better. He will play 15 years in the league if he stays healthy
4. Star - not a great fit for the Spurs but at this spot the value is too high to ignore. Will be a good defender and there are signs the offense has room to develop into something good
This is where the safe picks end and we get into high risk high reward players
5. Dillingham - Trae Young type of potential on offense but damn that D is atrocious.Ive moved him above Topic because I believe his offense will translate immediately
6. Topic - enormous wingspan and great ability to drive and finish or dish. Defense is poor and will he shoot’s 3s? He has the highest upside in the draft because I think the shooting will eventually come and if we are drafting to find a star player he would be my first home run swing.This draft sucks so much though that I’ve moved the safer picks to the top.
7. Buzelis - great size and fundamentals but we’ve seen it takes at least 2 years for prospects to unlearn G League BS.
8. Holland - he was miscast this last year but the athletic ability and competitiveness will eventually work out after he gets real coaching for 3-4 years
9. Castle - thstbshit isnugly but everything else is there. Big gamble that he can learn to shoot but if he does the potential is huge
10. Filipowski - safe bet for a serviceable backup big

[Mr. Body]

I don't think Sarr will be as good defensively as Mobley, but I do see more promise on offense, he's shown flashes of being able to put the ball on the floor, drive, touch, that I think there's a scenario where he's definitely better than Mobley on that end. But in any case, IMO, it's a trap to think of this draft in terms of pick numbers. We just have to take whomever is best regardless of where said player would usually fall in a normal draft, if you think that's going to be Sarr, Dillingham, Sheppard, Risacher, Topic or whomever, then that's your guy wherever you pick.

Agree. We get into a fallacy of thinking that if a previous player doesn't develop a skill, the current possibility won't, either. I agree with you on Sarr and just because Mobley hasn't become an offensive threat, there's no reason to think Sarr won't, either.

I think Castle comps pretty close in many ways to Dyson Daniels, who is still developing but also isn't a big threat. This doesn't mean they go in the same ways.

[Mr. Body]

Ha! scott ;)

I also have been reading rumors that Givony is driven by (possibly paid off) a lot of draft politics, which is why you’ll never hear a peep from him when prospects don’t perform well. Pretty sad when you consider there’s people out there that rely on him for scouting reports.

ESPN gets to them eventually. What many people feared once he started working there.

[CGD]

What if it's Rubio minus the defense?

Sounds like Josh Giddey, who folks seem to like around here…

[scott]

Ha! scott (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=150) ;)

I also have been reading rumors that Givony is driven by (possibly paid off) a lot of draft politics, which is why you’ll never hear a peep from him when prospects don’t perform well. Pretty sad when you consider there’s people out there that rely on him for scouting reports.

Important clarification! Good catch. Definitely less interesting.

Would be interesting to compare what this "service" has put out in the past versus actual draft positoin.

[rankingtear]

Important clarification! Good catch. Definitely less interesting.

Would be interesting to compare what this "service" has put out in the past versus actual draft positoin.
He just throws some rando high in early mocks like Bronny and Salaun this year. But he still has the most accurate final mocks.

[JPB]

"Reading rumors ont the Internet"...

Givony may be pimping a few prospects on his X, for but not in his mock drafts, which happened to be the among the most accurate ultimately. This isn't an exact science, and there's a lot of elements factoring in a prospect developing or not, but Givony is the closest to what you could call an educated journalist as far as mock drafts are concerned. And ofc, much more than anybody here.

[Dejounte]

"Reading rumors ont the Internet"...

Givony may be pimping a few prospects on his X, for but not in his mock drafts, which happened to be the among the most accurate ultimately. This isn't an exact science, and there's a lot of elements factoring in a prospect developing or not, but Givony is the closest to what you could call an educated journalist as far as mock drafts are concerned. And ofc, much more than anybody here.

You are such a sheep for media talking heads :lmao

here is Givony’s 2021 mock draft where he got everything wrong after the top 3 (the top 3 was obvious to anybody):



Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham
Houston Rockets: Jalen Green
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley
Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs
Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes
Oklahoma City Thunder: James
Bouknight
Golden State Warriors: Franz Wagner
(Previously - Jonathan Kuminga)
Orlando Magic: Jonathan Kuminga
(Previously - Moses Moody)
Sacramento Kings: Moses Moody
(Previously - Franz Wagner)
Memphis Grizzlies: Josh Giddey
(Previous/v/Same Position - Josh
Giddey to New Orleans)
Charlotte Hornets: Corey Kispert
San Antonio Spurs: Alperen Sengun
Indiana Pacers: Davion Mitchell
Golden State Warriors: Chris Duarte
Washington Wizards: Trey Murphy


2023 with again, so many big misses:



SAS - Victor Wembanyama
CHA - Brandon Miller
POR - Scoot Henderson
HOU - Amen Thompson
DET - Cam Whitmore
ORL - Ausar Thompson
IND - Jarace Walker
WAS - Anthony Black
UTA - Jalen Hood-Schifino
DAL - Taylor Hendricks
ORL - Gradey Dick
OKC - Nick Smith Jr.
TOR - Jordan Hawkins
NOP - Dereck Lively II
ATL - Keyonte George
UTA - Kobe Bufkin
LAL - Cason Wallace


Another classic:





Pick No.
Team
Player
Position
School/Team


1
Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards
G
Georgia


2
Golden State Warriors
James Wiseman
C
Memphis


3
Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball
G
Illawarra Hawks (Australia)


4
Chicago Bulls
Deni Avdija
G/F
Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel)


5
Cleveland Cavaliers
Obi Toppin
F
Dayton


6
Atlanta Hawks
Onyeka Okongwu
F/C
USC


7
Detroit Pistons
Patrick Williams
F
Florida State


8
New York Knicks
Tyrese Haliburton
G
Iowa State


9
Washington Wizards
Isaac Okoro
G/F
Auburn


10
Phoenix Suns
Devin Vassell
G/F
Florida State


11
San Antonio Spurs
Saddiq Bey
F
Villanova


12
Sacramento Kings
Killian Hayes
G
Ulm (France)


13
New Orleans Pelicans
Kira Lewis Jr.
G
Alabama


14
Boston Celtics (via Memphis)
Precious Achiuwa
F/C
Memphis


15
Orlando Magic
RJ Hampton
G
New Zealand Breakers (New Zealand)


16
Houston Rockets (via Portland)
Tyrese Maxey
G
Kentucky


17
Minnesota Timberwolves (via Brooklyn)
Aaron Nesmith
G/F
Vanderbilt


18
Dallas Mavericks
Aleksej Pokuševski
F
Olympiacos B (Greece)


19
Brooklyn Nets (via Philadelphia)
Josh Green
G/F

[rankingtear]

You are such a sheep for media talking heads :lmao

here is Givony’s 2021 mock draft where he got everything wrong after the top 3 (the top 3 was obvious to anybody):



Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham
Houston Rockets: Jalen Green
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley
Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs
Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes
Oklahoma City Thunder: James
Bouknight
Golden State Warriors: Franz Wagner
(Previously - Jonathan Kuminga)
Orlando Magic: Jonathan Kuminga
(Previously - Moses Moody)
Sacramento Kings: Moses Moody
(Previously - Franz Wagner)
Memphis Grizzlies: Josh Giddey
(Previous/v/Same Position - Josh
Giddey to New Orleans)
Charlotte Hornets: Corey Kispert
San Antonio Spurs: Alperen Sengun
Indiana Pacers: Davion Mitchell
Golden State Warriors: Chris Duarte
Washington Wizards: Trey Murphy


2023 with again, so many big misses:



SAS - Victor Wembanyama
CHA - Brandon Miller
POR - Scoot Henderson
HOU - Amen Thompson
DET - Cam Whitmore
ORL - Ausar Thompson
IND - Jarace Walker
WAS - Anthony Black
UTA - Jalen Hood-Schifino
DAL - Taylor Hendricks
ORL - Gradey Dick
OKC - Nick Smith Jr.
TOR - Jordan Hawkins
NOP - Dereck Lively II
ATL - Keyonte George
UTA - Kobe Bufkin
LAL - Cason Wallace


Another classic:





Pick No.
Team
Player
Position
School/Team


1
Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards
G
Georgia


2
Golden State Warriors
James Wiseman
C
Memphis


3
Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball
G
Illawarra Hawks (Australia)


4
Chicago Bulls
Deni Avdija
G/F
Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel)


5
Cleveland Cavaliers
Obi Toppin
F
Dayton


6
Atlanta Hawks
Onyeka Okongwu
F/C
USC


7
Detroit Pistons
Patrick Williams
F
Florida State


8
New York Knicks
Tyrese Haliburton
G
Iowa State


9
Washington Wizards
Isaac Okoro
G/F
Auburn


10
Phoenix Suns
Devin Vassell
G/F
Florida State


11
San Antonio Spurs
Saddiq Bey
F
Villanova


12
Sacramento Kings
Killian Hayes
G
Ulm (France)


13
New Orleans Pelicans
Kira Lewis Jr.
G
Alabama


14
Boston Celtics (via Memphis)
Precious Achiuwa
F/C
Memphis


15
Orlando Magic
RJ Hampton
G
New Zealand Breakers (New Zealand)


16
Houston Rockets (via Portland)
Tyrese Maxey
G
Kentucky


17
Minnesota Timberwolves (via Brooklyn)
Aaron Nesmith
G/F
Vanderbilt


18
Dallas Mavericks
Aleksej Pokuševski
F
Olympiacos B (Greece)


19
Brooklyn Nets (via Philadelphia)
Josh Green
G/F




The 2023 one is not the final. The final was probably the most accurate mock in history of mocks. Him and Woo got 16/30 , player to team pairing in the first round.

[buttsR4rebounding]

What would really be interesting is how these predictions compare with a theoretical redraft 5 years later. Anyone with a shred of accuracy there should be hired as a GM.

[Dejounte]

The 2023 one is not the final. The final was probably the most accurate mock in history of mocks. Him and Woo got 16/30 , player to team pairing in the first round.

Post it, my friend. If it’s a last minute update based on intel from teams days going into the draft, that’s one thing. But weeks or a month out, just like where we are now, where these experts are mostly relying on their scouting prowess, is another. We’ve also seen these “experts” like Chad Ford update their mock drafts as the selections are made to show they got it “correct”. Point is, overreliance on what these guys write is a joke.

[Dejounte]

What would really be interesting is how these predictions compare with a theoretical redraft 5 years later. Anyone with a shred of accuracy there should be hired as a GM.

Calling our Spurstalk resident research guy, scott ;)

[JPB]

You are such a sheep for media talking heads :lmao

here is Givony’s 2021 mock draft where he got everything wrong after the top 3 (the top 3 was obvious to anybody):



Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham
Houston Rockets: Jalen Green
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley
Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs
Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes
Oklahoma City Thunder: James
Bouknight
Golden State Warriors: Franz Wagner
(Previously - Jonathan Kuminga)
Orlando Magic: Jonathan Kuminga
(Previously - Moses Moody)
Sacramento Kings: Moses Moody
(Previously - Franz Wagner)
Memphis Grizzlies: Josh Giddey
(Previous/v/Same Position - Josh
Giddey to New Orleans)
Charlotte Hornets: Corey Kispert
San Antonio Spurs: Alperen Sengun
Indiana Pacers: Davion Mitchell
Golden State Warriors: Chris Duarte
Washington Wizards: Trey Murphy


2023 with again, so many big misses:



SAS - Victor Wembanyama
CHA - Brandon Miller
POR - Scoot Henderson
HOU - Amen Thompson
DET - Cam Whitmore
ORL - Ausar Thompson
IND - Jarace Walker
WAS - Anthony Black
UTA - Jalen Hood-Schifino
DAL - Taylor Hendricks
ORL - Gradey Dick
OKC - Nick Smith Jr.
TOR - Jordan Hawkins
NOP - Dereck Lively II
ATL - Keyonte George
UTA - Kobe Bufkin
LAL - Cason Wallace


Another classic:





Pick No.
Team
Player
Position
School/Team


1
Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards
G
Georgia


2
Golden State Warriors
James Wiseman
C
Memphis


3
Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball
G
Illawarra Hawks (Australia)


4
Chicago Bulls
Deni Avdija
G/F
Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel)


5
Cleveland Cavaliers
Obi Toppin
F
Dayton


6
Atlanta Hawks
Onyeka Okongwu
F/C
USC


7
Detroit Pistons
Patrick Williams
F
Florida State


8
New York Knicks
Tyrese Haliburton
G
Iowa State


9
Washington Wizards
Isaac Okoro
G/F
Auburn


10
Phoenix Suns
Devin Vassell
G/F
Florida State


11
San Antonio Spurs
Saddiq Bey
F
Villanova


12
Sacramento Kings
Killian Hayes
G
Ulm (France)


13
New Orleans Pelicans
Kira Lewis Jr.
G
Alabama


14
Boston Celtics (via Memphis)
Precious Achiuwa
F/C
Memphis


15
Orlando Magic
RJ Hampton
G
New Zealand Breakers (New Zealand)


16
Houston Rockets (via Portland)
Tyrese Maxey
G
Kentucky


17
Minnesota Timberwolves (via Brooklyn)
Aaron Nesmith
G/F
Vanderbilt


18
Dallas Mavericks
Aleksej Pokuševski
F
Olympiacos B (Greece)


19
Brooklyn Nets (via Philadelphia)
Josh Green
G/F





Give me ones that were so much more accurate (or give us yours and tell us again how Bilal shold have been #2 last year)...

Anyway, you don't seem to understand the concept of mock drafts (or of opinions), wich isn't necessarily about predicting the picks teams will take, but dress an overall picture of the prospects who entered the draft and the area they may be selected.

Givony, nor any pundit, isn't in any GMs heads, nor does he know their exact strategy. He's not giving informations (also it's possible in the last days before the draft, like CHA leaning on Miller rather than Scoot) but he's listing the kids he believes are the more susceptible to be selected AROUND any spot.. He can't predict spurs are gonna reach for Primo :cry or a bad GM will make a bad pick.

Read his comments, and you'll see he often precises for any specific prospect that he may end up 2 to 3 pick above or ahead depending an what needs teams who pick there will first privilege...

And eventually Dejounte, saying this kindly, I don't know why you seem obsessed with "keeping tracks" and preemptively calling people for their opinions, and how bad they'll look in 5 years, "HA!" or whatever, but maybe you shouldn't take this so seriously and personnally, and stop acting like you or your opinions were anymore informed or educated than anyone here,
you have as many bad takes or predictions than any random poster. And noone is "keeping track" or will call you out for that in 5 years...

:pop: This is just basketball

[Dejounte]

Give me ones that were so much more accurate (or give us yours and tell us again how Bilal shold have been #2 last year)...

But anyway, I don't know why you seem obsessed with "keeping tracks" and preemptively calling people for their opinions, and how bad they'll look in 5 years, "HA!" or whatever... but anyway you also don't seem to understand the concept of mock drafts (or of opinions), wich isn't necessarily about predicting the picks teams will take, but dress an overall picture of the prospects who entered the draft and the area they may be selected.

Givony, nor any pundit, isn't in any GMs heads, nor does he know their exact strategy. He's not giving informations (also it's possible in the last days before the draft, like CHA leaning on Miller rather than Scoot) but he's listing the kids he believes are the more susceptible to be selected AROUND any spot...

Read his comments, and you'll see he often precises for any specific prospect that he may end up 2 to 3 pick above or ahead depending an what needs teams who pick there will first privilege...

And eventually Dejounte, saying this kindly, maybe you should acting like you or your opinions were anymore informed or educated than anyone here. you have as many (if more) bad takes or predictions than any random poster. And noone is "keeping track" or will call you out for that in 5 years...

:pop: This is just basketball

I never said Bilal should have been #2 last year, so I don’t who you’re confusing me with.

The reason I make it a mission to keep track of who says what is because I’ve been on this forum for so long to see time and time again how the loudest and most confident people on here, like yourself, are so confidently incorrect with things. So showing people like you, what you said five years ago, will show others how foolish your takes are and how foolish your take might be at the present. Guys like you are so confidently incorrect that it ignites a passion in me to prove that maybe you shouldn’t be so confident in your takes in the first place. Call it my flaw, or whatever, but it’s part of what I enjoy doing on here, and everyone posts on here for one reason or another.

Most of my takes are shared with a bit of humility, using careful words and rarely shutting down the possibility that I’m wrong, saying things like, “if player X doesn’t get better…” or “IMO, this is how I see this player and unless he improves his game”. There’s only so few cases where I’m sure about a thing or a person.

And when I do end up wrong on anything, you won’t see me not owning up to it. In fact, I would enjoy it that you do point out cases that I’m wrong, so I can develop my basketball sense and be better with my takes. I laugh about things I’m wrong about and I try to be better.

[rankingtear]

Post it, my friend. If it’s a last minute update based on intel from teams days going into the draft, that’s one thing. But weeks or a month out, just like where we are now, where these experts are mostly relying on their scouting prowess, is another. We’ve also seen these “experts” like Chad Ford update their mock drafts as the selections are made to show they got it “correct”. Point is, overreliance on what these guys write is a joke.

First round

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/sas.png&w=110&h=1101. San Antonio Spurs (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/sa/san-antonio-spurs)

Victor Wembanyama
Metropolitans 92
PF/C

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/cha.png&w=110&h=1102. Charlotte Hornets (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/cha/charlotte-hornets)

Brandon Miller (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4433287/brandon-miller)
Alabama
SF
Age: 20.5
2023 NBA draft highlights

One of the most anticipated drafts in years ended with Victor Wembanyama going No. 1. Here's more from draft night.

Miller and Scoot Henderson returned to Charlotte Monday (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/story/_/id/37873139/sources-brandon-miller-scoot-henderson-visit-hornets-again) for second visits and workouts as the Hornets finalize their plans at No. 2. Sources told ESPN the feeling coming out of that workout was that Miller further helped himself, bringing a much greater intensity level, making shots, and faring well when tested in defensive situations. The word was he also had a positive meeting with Michael Jordan, and at this point, all indications are that the Hornets are prepared to go with Miller here. Henderson endeared himself to Charlotte, but it's fair to say that Miller looks like the easier choice, able to slot in easily as a tall wing scorer alongside guard LaMelo Ball (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4432816/lamelo-ball) as the Hornets push toward competitiveness. -- Jeremy Woo
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/por.png&w=110&h=1103. Portland Trail Blazers (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/por/portland-trail-blazers)

Scoot Henderson
G League Ignite
PG
Age: 19.3

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/hou.png&w=110&h=1104. Houston Rockets (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets)

Amen Thompson
Overtime Elite
PG/SG
Age: 20.3

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/det.png&w=110&h=1105. Detroit Pistons (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/det/detroit-pistons)

Ausar Thompson
Overtime Elite
PG/SG
Age: 20.3

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/orl.png&w=110&h=1106. Orlando Magic (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/orl/orlando-magic)

Anthony Black (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/5105516/anthony-black)
Arkansas
PG/SG

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/ind.png&w=110&h=1107. Indiana Pacers (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/ind/indiana-pacers)

Jarace Walker (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/5106060/jarace-walker)
Houston
PF
Age: 19.7
Walker is believed to have a narrow draft range consisting of Detroit at No. 5, Indiana at No. 7 and Utah at No. 9. With the Pacers believed to be actively seeking an explosive, defensive-minded power forward who can bring a physical presence and multi-positional versatility, Walker is a natural fit for their roster composition standing 6-foot-8, 249 pounds with 7-foot-2½ wingspan. The team has plenty of shot-creation and scoring already with Tyrese Haliburton (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4396993/tyrese-haliburton) and Buddy Hield (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2990984/buddy-hield), but struggled defensively and on the glass because of its lack of physicality. The Pacers trading for a power forward such as Jonathan Kuminga (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4433247/jonathan-kuminga), Tobias Harris (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6440/tobias-harris), De'Andre Hunter (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4065732/de'andre-hunter) or Dorian Finney-Smith (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2578185/dorian-finney-smith) is an option that could be explored as well. Ausar Thompson and Cam Whitmore are also in play here. -- Givony
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/was.png&w=110&h=1108. Washington Wizards (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/wsh/washington-wizards)

Cam Whitmore (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/5105592/cam-whitmore)
Villanova
SF

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/uth.png&w=110&h=1109. Utah Jazz (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/utah/utah-jazz)

Taylor Hendricks (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4684806/taylor-hendricks)
UCF
PF

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/dal.png&w=110&h=11010. Dallas Mavericks (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks)

Dereck Lively II (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4683688/dereck-lively-ii)
Duke
C
Age: 19.3
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/orl.png&w=110&h=11011. Orlando Magic (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/orl/orlando-magic) (via Chicago)

Gradey Dick (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/5106258/gradey-dick)
Kansas
SG/SF
y
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/okc.png&w=110&h=11012. Oklahoma City Thunder (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/okc/oklahoma-city-thunder)

Bilal Coulibaly
Metropolitans 92
SG/SF
Age: 18.8
2023 NBA Draft: Victor Wembanyama (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/34825273/wembanyama-nba-draft-journey-highlights-stats-games-news)


https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/tor.png&w=110&h=11013. Toronto Raptors (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/tor/toronto-raptors)

Kobe Bufkin (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4683736/kobe-bufkin)
Michigan
PG/SG
Age: 19.7
The Raptors have a plethora of options at their disposal that could see them end up anywhere on draft night -- higher up in the lottery, with another pick in the mid-to-late first round -- or possibly out altogether. Picking a shooter such as Dick or Jordan Hawkins (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4683750/jordan-hawkins), or pairing franchise stalwart Scottie Barnes (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4433134/scottie-barnes) with a versatile combo guard such as Bufkin, Nick Smith Jr. or Hood-Schifino are believed to be some of their most likely options, according to rival teams. However, the amount of activity coming out of the Toronto front office makes it difficult to project what they will do. Bufkin's fit with Barnes because of his experience playing off the ball, defensive tenacity and much-improved shooting has caused many to speculate that the Raptors are the ones who promised Bufkin this pick, and he indeed finds himself as the pick in this scenario. -- Givony
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/nor.png&w=110&h=11014. New Orleans Pelicans (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/no/new-orleans-pelicans)

Jordan Hawkins (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4683750/jordan-hawkins)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/atl.png&w=110&h=11015. Atlanta Hawks (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-hawks)

Cason Wallace (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4683692/cason-wallace)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/uth.png&w=110&h=11016. Utah Jazz (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/utah/utah-jazz) (via Minnesota)

Keyonte George (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4433627/keyonte-george)
Baylor
SG
Age: 19.6
There's been some thought circulating that George could fall a bit further than this on draft night, but the Jazz are known to be among the teams interested. In a scenario like this, where Utah keeps its picks and grabs a frontcourt player at No. 9, this pick seems like a landing spot for a guard. George's scoring instincts and skill level give him good upside relative to the other guards in his range, particularly if he falls out of the lottery, but he has been a polarizing name for teams throughout the pre-draft process, and his range still appears pretty wide as a result. -- Woo
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/lal.png&w=110&h=11017. Los Angeles Lakers (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/lal/los-angeles-lakers)

Jalen Hood-Schifino (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4683750/jordan-hawkins)
Indiana
PG/SG
Age: 20.0
The Lakers are thought to be considering several players here, including Lively, Smith and Noah Clowney, but a surprise fall from Hood-Schifino could also make him a logical choice if L.A. decides to keep this pick, or a viable target for another team in a trade. Coming off a run to the Western Conference finals, the Lakers can be opportunistic about where they are positioned on draft night. Several high-level prospects are likely to be available here, allowing them to either add a talented young player to their core, or make an impactful trade that allows them to remain competitive heading into next season. -- Givony
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/mia.png&w=110&h=11018. Miami Heat (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/mia/miami-heat)

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4432848/jaime-jaquez-jr)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/gsw.png&w=110&h=11019. Golden State Warriors (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/gs/golden-state-warriors)

Brandin Podziemski (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4709138/brandin-podziemski)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/hou.png&w=110&h=11020. Houston Rockets (via (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets)LA Clippers (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/lac/la-clippers))

Jett Howard (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/5105806/jett-howard)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/bkn.png&w=110&h=11021. Brooklyn Nets (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/bkn/brooklyn-nets) (via Phoenix)

Noah Clowney (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4712896/noah-clowney)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/bkn.png&w=110&h=11022. Brooklyn Nets (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/bkn/brooklyn-nets)

Nick Smith Jr. (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4683686/nick-smith)
Arkansas
PG/SG
Age: 19.1

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/por.png&w=110&h=11023. Portland Trail Blazers (https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/team/_/name/por/portland-trail-blazers) (via New York)

Kris Murray (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4594326/kris-murray)

[Dejounte]

Kudos to you rankingtear and kudos to ESPN for being pretty good at last year. Not knowing the full context of when this was posted still gives me pause but assuming it’s correct good for them. It still doesn’t prove to me that they’re a reliable source of information when it comes to mock drafts (and especially when it comes to their big boards), since I’ve seen many other years where they were off.

[rankingtear]

Kudos to you rankingtear (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=44897) and kudos to ESPN for being pretty good at last year. Not knowing the full context of when this was posted still gives me pause but assuming it’s correct good for them. It still doesn’t prove to me that they’re a reliable source of information when it comes to mock drafts (and especially when it comes to their big boards), since I’ve seen many other years where they were off.

1540169384051744768

They were also pretty good in 2022.

1421581701407510535

Despite the dropoff the pairing is still top 8 in 2021, where the other best intel mocks finished below them.

[spurraider21]

All those mocks are pretty close to accurate. Even if it’s not player to team pairing the expected range of where the picks fall is generally very accurate

[rjv]

Making comparisons to other ST prognosticators is like comparing astrologers.

[CGD]

^ Jeremy Woo and Wasserman are the ones I follow the most.

[scott]

Calling our Spurstalk resident research guy, scott (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=150) ;)

Project sounds fun but I'm probably going to pass on this one unless I run into an unexpected chunk of time coming up!

[BackHome]

My board has evolved a bit. Topic has dropped and Clingan moved up.

1. Risacher - 6’10” 3&D looks like his floor. That’s extremely valuable, even if he hasn’t shown much else, and it fits a Spurs need 100%
2. Sheppard - the best shooter in the draft plays mistake free ball and make opportunistic plays on D. That will translate immediately to a good rotation role with room to grown if his ball handling evolves
3. Clingan - Poeltl but better. He will play 15 years in the league if he stays healthy
4. Star - not a great fit for the Spurs but at this spot the value is too high to ignore. Will be a good defender and there are signs the offense has room to develop into something good
This is where the safe picks end and we get into high risk high reward players
5. Dillingham - Trae Young type of potential on offense but damn that D is atrocious.Ive moved him above Topic because I believe his offense will translate immediately
6. Topic - enormous wingspan and great ability to drive and finish or dish. Defense is poor and will he shoot’s 3s? He has the highest upside in the draft because I think the shooting will eventually come and if we are drafting to find a star player he would be my first home run swing.This draft sucks so much though that I’ve moved the safer picks to the top.
7. Buzelis - great size and fundamentals but we’ve seen it takes at least 2 years for prospects to unlearn G League BS.
8. Holland - he was miscast this last year but the athletic ability and competitiveness will eventually work out after he gets real coaching for 3-4 years
9. Castle - thstbshit isnugly but everything else is there. Big gamble that he can learn to shoot but if he does the potential is huge
10. Filipowski - safe bet for a serviceable backup big

Pretty good board Couch - I like

[CGD]

I thought this pod was incisive on Sarr and Dillingham, from the guy at OTE who had them both. Lots of spurs references.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ringers-nba-draft-show/id1652760062?i=1000654659591

[Vienna]

Tony Parker's career three point shooting was 32.4%. Trae Young's is 35.5%. Of course volume is a big part of it, but that's not a huge difference overall. Parker could have developed more from deep if they wanted. Also, imagine him in an era where perimeter defense isn't allowed and any contact by a driving player is called in their favor. He got knocked down all the time inside on shots. Those would be fouls now.

I think you are right about Tony's game translating to todays NBA. but if the Spurs did have a time machine, they don't bring back Tony to play PG alongside Wemby, they would chose Manu to do this.
the fact that thy didn't succeed to find a big PG (or develop one from their player pool) doesn't mean that the plan itself was bad. todays NBA trends to combo guards and Spurs are even building a team for tomorrows NBA, where the traditionell PG might be as outdated as the old school Center already is.

[ginobilized]

The Spurs have historically seemed to place a lot of weight on the combine and workouts. More so than other organizations.
Would not surprise me if that happens again and we get a prospect that overachieves in combine scrimmages.

[JPB]

I think you are right about Tony's game translating to todays NBA. but if the Spurs did have a time machine, they don't bring back Tony to play PG alongside Wemby, they would chose Manu to do this.
the fact that thy didn't succeed to find a big PG (or develop one from their player pool) doesn't mean that the plan itself was bad. todays NBA trends to combo guards and Spurs are even building a team for tomorrows NBA, where the traditionell PG might be as outdated as the old school Center already is.

- Maxey, Lillard, Beal/Booker, DLo Russell were all first round exit.
- One of Brunson/Haliburton is next in the semis, then the other one is out vs BOS after that in a very weak East tbh.
- Conley doesn't make it past Denver imo. Nuggs are gonna adapt to Ant.
- Curry, Van Vleet didn't make the POs.

Anyone can take it they wish regarding short PGs in today's NBA.

[Mr. Body]

- Maxey, Lillard, Beal/Booker, DLo Russell were all first round exit.
- One of Brunson/Haliburton is next in the semis, then the other one is out vs BOS after that in a very weak East tbh.
- Conley doesn't make it past Denver imo. Nuggs are gonna adapt to Ant.
- Curry, Van Vleet didn't make the POs.

Anyone can take it they wish regarding short PGs in today's NBA.

I feel like we're going around in circles on this. You're treating it like a small guard is a poison that automatically causes early playoff exits, when championship winners is an extremely small category and they're all different. It used to be that you needed more than one star, but then Milwaukee and Denver happened.

Stephen Curry, if you didn't notice, won four championships.

Which championship teams had Wembanyama? If you put Tony Parker next to Wembanyama, they are gold.

And it's not like drafting a less talented player in this draft who is bigger is going to automatically get you a championship. Does drafting Isaiah Collier get you a championship, because he's a few inches taller?

It's just not adequate to say small guards cannot win championships when very, very few teams win championships and small guards already have won championships. There's no 'new era' about it. If anything, small guards thrive more nowadays.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

KOC updated his big board, and it's about as horrible as you could possibly imagine. He's doing a bit, right?

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

1. Castle
2. Sarr
3. Clingan
4. Topic
5. Buzelis
6. Knecht
7. Sheppard
8. Dillingham
9. Williams
10. Risacher

[Knoxxx]

KOC updated his big board, and it's about as horrible as you could possibly imagine. He's doing a bit, right?

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

1. Castle
2. Sarr
3. Clingan
4. Topic
5. Buzelis
6. Knecht
7. Sheppard
8. Dillingham
9. Williams
10. Risacher

Castle/Clingan that high would be awesome, since we don’t really want either!

[LeBowen]

Castle/Clingan that high would be awesome, since we don’t really want either!

Having Castle at #1 makes absolutely no sense unless Wizards get the first pick. Even then, I don't think they'd pass on Sarr.
Wizards, Spurs, Raptors and Jazz are the only teams that will be looking for a point guard.

[Dejounte]

Having Castle at #1 makes absolutely no sense unless Wizards get the first pick. Even then, I don't think they'd pass on Sarr.
Wizards, Spurs, Raptors and Jazz are the only teams that will be looking for a point guard.

It’s a big board, not a mock draft. It doesn’t take account for team needs, it’s who he sees as players who will be most successful in their careers.

[LeBowen]

It’s a big board, not a mock draft. It doesn’t take account for team needs, it’s who he sees as players who will be most successful in their careers.

My bad, I didn't realize there are two tabs on that site. Didn't open the link now, the last time I checked KOC had his own mock draft.
That one has Raptors taking Sarr with #1 (imagine the odds) and Jazz taking Castle with #2.

[montgod]

The Spurs have historically seemed to place a lot of weight on the combine and workouts. More so than other organizations.
Would not surprise me if that happens again and we get a prospect that overachieves in combine scrimmages.

I could see this happen as well as them trading down for the player they like. Part of me also thinks since this draft isn't a strong one, that FO could trade for a player (salary dump or real prospect) already on an nba roster and possibly gain more draft capital for '25.

[JPB]

My bad, I didn't realize there are two tabs on that site. Didn't open the link now, the last time I checked KOC had his own mock draft.
That one has Raptors taking Sarr with #1 (imagine the odds) and Jazz taking Castle with #2.

His mock draft is not that far from his big board. And I believe he's off for the top 3 (and overall) and will correct it as the draft gets closer.

I'd like it to since that means he'd be available for the spurs but I do'nt see 9 teams passing on Risacher, speciaily with the guys ahead.

But posting "original" mock drafts is also way to get particular attention and make people talk about it, as we're doing now.

[JPB]

For people who were worried about Risacher FTs, looks like it was more a question of focus and rythm, than shooting issues. He's been working on that and is shooting 84% these past 5 games (16/19) and 74% for the season. He should be 80%+ shooter in career in the NBA.

Speaking of focus, it's interesting that see that knowing he'd be particularly scrutinized by NBA scouts these last few weeks, Risacher answered the pressure to not only up is game and stats but clearly focused on what people could have seen as flaws or be worried about... Besides FTs, he crashed the boards and is also averaging 6.8rb a game these last 5. The kid wants to make a point.

[Knoxxx]

Having Castle at #1 makes absolutely no sense unless Wizards get the first pick. Even then, I don't think they'd pass on Sarr.
Wizards, Spurs, Raptors and Jazz are the only teams that will be looking for a point guard.

You may be missing the point here, or at least the one I was making. We have a high chance at picking #7, whether that be ours or Raptors pick. We don't really seem to want Castle (need shooting) or Clingan. Regardless of whether we get 1 pick or 2, it will be really nice for us to see one of them go in the top 6. Then in a virtual "worst case" of picking at 7 only (or having 7 as our second pick). We are not left choosing between Knecht, Castle, Clingan, or Williams. That would feel like a real "booby prize" to end up getting only one of those players.

Now if we got two of Sarr, Topic, Buzelis, Sheppard, Dillingham, Risacher. THAT would be an impressive haul. And one of those, plus one of the other four is in the happy medium range.

Best case: get two of the top 6: Sarr, Topic, Buzelis, Sheppard, Dillingham, Risacher
Next best case: one of the top 6, one of the next 4 (Castle, Clingan, Knecht, Williams).
Next best case: one of the top 6
Worst case: one of the next 4 (Castle, Clingan, Knecht, Williams)

Now based on our team needs, I think that is an accurate estimate of the top 6 and next 4. That should make it more clear why I'd love to see another team take 1-2 of the next 4, ahead of our top 6.

Yes, I understand opinions vary but of that next 4:

Castle suspect shooter
Clingan a big we don't need, no outside shooting
Knecht older prospect
Williams borderline top 10 selection

Of those, I'd probably go Knecht as he is regarded as being capable of instant offense. Sort of like adding a "quasi-vet" to a team that needs more experience, stability, and shooting. Castle/Williams are a tossup to me, maybe go Williams due to better size, and need for more length at the 3 spot. Clingan, don't want, rather have Edey tbh.

The nice part is while I probably have this wrong, that makes 9 players worth having and the worst we can pick is 9. Which is practically a zero chance to occur, actually.

But, I think missing out on at least one of those top 6 would qualify as a real "buzz kill", IMO.

[Biggems]

In the second round, I want G/F Dillon Jones from Weber State with our early pick. Then, with our later pick, I want PG Tristan Newton from UConn.

I am still conflicted about our one or two lottery selections.

One player I really like in the 20s is PG Tyler Kolek from Marquette. He reminds me of a mixture of Stockton and Price.

[rascal]

KOC updated his big board, and it's about as horrible as you could possibly imagine. He's doing a bit, right?

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

1. Castle
2. Sarr
3. Clingan
4. Topic
5. Buzelis
6. Knecht
7. Sheppard
8. Dillingham
9. Williams
10. Risacher

I have Sarr and Castle one two in that order

I don't see any all stars in that group
Sarr has the biggest upside that's why he'll be drafted first

[Knoxxx]

Just got us the 1 and 7 picks on tankathon, first try!

[objective]

Another second rounder :

Jonathan Mogbo !

I'm on the Mogbo train, choo -choo !!

If Montrez Harrell could pass, he'd be Mogbo. Plus, his name is very close to the trusted news anchor Morbo.

[baseline bum]

KOC updated his big board, and it's about as horrible as you could possibly imagine. He's doing a bit, right?

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

1. Castle
2. Sarr
3. Clingan
4. Topic
5. Buzelis
6. Knecht
7. Sheppard
8. Dillingham
9. Williams
10. Risacher

Looks like a board I'd love to see other GMs buy into if I could get Dillingham and Risacher with say picks 7 & 8.

[baseline bum]

It’s a big board, not a mock draft. It doesn’t take account for team needs, it’s who he sees as players who will be most successful in their careers.

Gross, he has the Spurs taking Clingan at #6 with their only pick (has Toronto getting #1 in his lottery sim).

[Mr. Body]

KOC updated his big board, and it's about as horrible as you could possibly imagine. He's doing a bit, right?

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

1. Castle
2. Sarr
3. Clingan
4. Topic
5. Buzelis
6. Knecht
7. Sheppard
8. Dillingham
9. Williams
10. Risacher

He says Matas Buzelis is known as a connective playmaker with good shooting when he's not a great playmaker and cannot shoot. Also says he's from Lithuania when he's American.

[Biggems]

Another second rounder :

Jonathan Mogbo !

I'm on the Mogbo train, choo -choo !!

If Montrez Harrell could pass, he'd be Mogbo. Plus, his name is very close to the trusted news anchor Morbo.

Nice call on this guy. I went and watched some of his highlights. Strong post presence. Nice passer for a big wing. Solid defense inside and on the perimeter. Really the only negative I noticed was his lack of a perimeter game. However, it could also be a positive, cause he wasn't forcing up poor shots. Also, because of his inside threat and presence, he was able to suck in the defense and then find teammates for wide open looks.

[alfahdlan]

https://hoopshype.com/lists/2024-aggregate-mock-draft-donovan-clingan-and-zach-edey-rising-before-combine/

Above article has interesting insights on draft prospects, taking into consideration the plus and minuses.

[objective]

Nice call on this guy. I went and watched some of his highlights. Strong post presence. Nice passer for a big wing. Solid defense inside and on the perimeter. Really the only negative I noticed was his lack of a perimeter game. However, it could also be a positive, cause he wasn't forcing up poor shots. Also, because of his inside threat and presence, he was able to suck in the defense and then find teammates for wide open looks.

Yes, I'm looking forward to his combine, he's invited, I think he might get to 6-9 in shoes.

He's been at 4 different colleges in 4 years, I think that some stability in an organization and g-league might unlock some things and he could turn into a real player, he already has interesting analytics in college. He absolutely can't shoot right now, but has shown be can make progress going from 49% free throw 3 as a junior to 63%

[Vienna]

It's just not adequate to say small guards cannot win championships when very, very few teams win championships and small guards already have won championships. There's no 'new era' about it. If anything, small guards thrive more nowadays.

there is an interesting article about height evolution in the NBA:
70 Years of Height Evolution in the NBA [4,504 players analyzed] | RunRepeat (https://runrepeat.com/height-evolution-in-the-nba)

the key findings are:
Point guards are the tallest they have ever been in legue history, while the average NBA player has never been shorter over the past 39 years, all positions outside PGs are shortest sice the 80s.
similar to height evolution, point guards are the heaviest they've ever been. all other positions are getting lighter.

there are some interesting diagrams, the one that I was especially interested in is: "share of players in the NBA per height range", because this shows the trend best: a significant increase of the share of players from 6'3" to 6'5" over the last 20 years. this has to be the increasing number of combo guards teams play in their back court.

I think noone claims that a small player can't succeed in the NBA, if he has some outstanding skills. but position less play and switchablity generates a trend and I don't think teams totally ignore that trend. the point is, you want a player, who can defend at least two positions, better three, if not four. if you can only defend one position (the tiny guard, the plodding center) you inevitable block many possible defensive shemes.
that's why I don't agree to the theory, that because you have Wemby, it's not a problem to play a small guard, because Wemby will cover for this. yes, right, Wemby would minimize the damage, but you still rob yourself of some defensive versatility. it's like saying "hey, we have a hole in our boat, but no problem, we've got a guy with a big bucket"

[Mr. Body]

One of the whole 'small guards' thing here is of course you want tall guards, but who else are you going to draft in this lottery?

You can either get a guard with superior skills (exceptional scoring, ball-handling, competitiveness, clutchness) - OR - you can draft a less talented player just because they're tall.

We can talk theoreticals or we can talk about who is actually available.

[JPB]

there is an interesting article about height evolution in the NBA:
70 Years of Height Evolution in the NBA [4,504 players analyzed] | RunRepeat (https://runrepeat.com/height-evolution-in-the-nba)

the key findings are:
Point guards are the tallest they have ever been in legue history, while the average NBA player has never been shorter over the past 39 years, all positions outside PGs are shortest sice the 80s.
similar to height evolution, point guards are the heaviest they've ever been. all other positions are getting lighter.

there are some interesting diagrams, the one that I was especially interested in is: "share of players in the NBA per height range", because this shows the trend best: a significant increase of the share of players from 6'3" to 6'5" over the last 20 years. this has to be the increasing number of combo guards teams play in their back court.

I think noone claims that a small player can't succeed in the NBA, if he has some outstanding skills. but position less play and switchablity generates a trend and I don't think teams totally ignore that trend. the point is, you want a player, who can defend at least two positions, better three, if not four. if you can only defend one position (the tiny guard, the plodding center) you inevitable block many possible defensive shemes.
that's why I don't agree to the theory, that because you have Wemby, it's not a problem to play a small guard, because Wemby will cover for this. yes, right, Wemby would minimize the damage, but you still rob yourself of some defensive versatility. it's like saying "hey, we have a hole in our boat, but no problem, we've got a guy with a big bucket"

If I you have the choice, yeah, that versatile long 2/3 is what you want in today's NBA, reason why I 'd prefer spurs to draft Risacher rather than Dilly or another guard in tis draft but I'd say every situation is different, and the main issue with shorter guards is when they're your first option and the game is build around them.

I'd love a Tatum, Ant or Giannis to play with Wemby but they're really hard to get and I would say a shorter guard is less an issue with Wemby whose game is build around, also as a creator, when that shorter guard would focus on setting (lobs, pnr) and shooting 3s, with 3&D guys around. Wemby is taking so much attention, both sides of the floor that it really can make up for one weak link in your defense, assuming that guy is producing on offense (pt, ass and FTs) and is helping Wemby express all his potential there.

[baseline bum]

One of the whole 'small guards' thing here is of course you want tall guards, but who else are you going to draft in this lottery?

You can either get a guard with superior skills (exceptional scoring, ball-handling, competitiveness, clutchness) - OR - you can draft a less talented player just because they're tall.

We can talk theoreticals or we can talk about who is actually available.

Ugh if the Spurs draft Topic just for size and he ends up costing the Spurs series when no one guards him at the three point line just like Aaron Gordon is costing the Nuggets this series with Minnesota. Or just like Turkoglu vs the Lakers in 04 when no one guarded him at the three point line.

[spurraider21]

Ugh if the Spurs draft Topic just for size and he ends up costing the Spurs series when no one guards him at the three point line just like Aaron Gordon is costing the Nuggets this series with Minnesota. Or just like Turkoglu vs the Lakers in 04 when no one guarded him at the three point line.
motherfuckers got away with ignoring a career 38% 3 point shooter who had hit 42% during that season

spurs still gave up on him too soon tbh

[baseline bum]

motherfuckers got away with ignoring a career 38% 3 point shooter who had hit 42% during that season

spurs still gave up on him too soon tbh

Yeah but they knew he was soft and scared of the moment and that was their hail mary in the series per Tex Winter

[R. DeMurre]

You are such a sheep for media talking heads :lmao

here is Givony’s 2021 mock draft where he got everything wrong after the top 3 (the top 3 was obvious to anybody):



Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham
Houston Rockets: Jalen Green
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley
Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs
Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes
Oklahoma City Thunder: James
Bouknight
Golden State Warriors: Franz Wagner
(Previously - Jonathan Kuminga)
Orlando Magic: Jonathan Kuminga
(Previously - Moses Moody)
Sacramento Kings: Moses Moody
(Previously - Franz Wagner)
Memphis Grizzlies: Josh Giddey
(Previous/v/Same Position - Josh
Giddey to New Orleans)
Charlotte Hornets: Corey Kispert
San Antonio Spurs: Alperen Sengun
Indiana Pacers: Davion Mitchell
Golden State Warriors: Chris Duarte
Washington Wizards: Trey Murphy





One could argue this is a hit for Givony and a miss for Golden State, and a good example of a media talking head making a better choice than a professional NBA GM & FO.

[Ariel]

One could argue this is a hit for Givony and a miss for Golden State, and a good example of a media talking head making a better choice than a professional NBA GM & FO.
Plenty of teams drafting worse than consensus, and arguably that includes the Spurs if we're just considering the past 5 years. No sense paying a whole bunch of scouts if you can't consistently beat random internet mocks.

[spurraider21]

You are such a sheep for media talking heads :lmao

here is Givony’s 2021 mock draft where he got everything wrong after the top 3 (the top 3 was obvious to anybody):



Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham - actual draft position: 1
Houston Rockets: Jalen Green - actual draft position: 2
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley - actual draft position: 3
Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs - actual draft position: 5 (off by 1)
Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes - actual draft position: 4 (off by 1)
Oklahoma City Thunder: James - actual draft position: 11 (off by 5)
Bouknight
Golden State Warriors: Franz Wagner - actual draft position: 8 (off by 1)
(Previously - Jonathan Kuminga)
Orlando Magic: Jonathan Kuminga - actual draft position: 7 (off by 1)
(Previously - Moses Moody)
Sacramento Kings: Moses Moody - actual draft position: 14 (off by 5)
(Previously - Franz Wagner)
Memphis Grizzlies: Josh Giddey - actual draft position: 6 (off by 4)
(Previous/v/Same Position - Josh
Giddey to New Orleans)
Charlotte Hornets: Corey Kispert - actual draft position: 15 (off by 4)
San Antonio Spurs: Alperen Sengun - actual draft position: 16 (off by 4)
Indiana Pacers: Davion Mitchell - actual draft position: 9 (off by 4)
Golden State Warriors: Chris Duarte - actual draft position: 13 (off by 1)
Washington Wizards: Trey Murphy - actual draft position: 17 (off by 2)


this is actually very good accuracy as far as nailing how the players are evaluated/valued around the league. has average margin error was 2.2 picks. thats not bad at all

[R. DeMurre]

Plenty of teams drafting worse than consensus, and arguably that includes the Spurs if we're just considering the past 5 years. No sense paying a whole bunch of scouts if you can't consistently beat random internet mocks.


I noticed that Dean (of Dean on Draft fame, https://twitter.com/deanondraft), a guy that often outdrafts pro GMs, hasn't posted anything since January, which is very unusual for him. My guess is he has been hired as a consultant by some NBA team and is keeping quiet on the analysis front, so as not to give away any insights.

[Biggems]

Yes, I'm looking forward to his combine, he's invited, I think he might get to 6-9 in shoes.

He's been at 4 different colleges in 4 years, I think that some stability in an organization and g-league might unlock some things and he could turn into a real player, he already has interesting analytics in college. He absolutely can't shoot right now, but has shown be can make progress going from 49% free throw 3 as a junior to 63%

right now, I feel he is a UDFA. He can change that by killing it at the combine and in interviews with teams. If he is a UDFA, I hope the Spurs pounce like a fat man at a buffet

[Degoat]

Do y’all think Nikola Topic has the same ceiling as Josh Giddey? Minus being a perv I always thought Giddey fit into the spurs mold as a player.

[Vienna]

You can either get a guard with superior skills (exceptional scoring, ball-handling, competitiveness, clutchness) - OR - you can draft a less talented player just because they're tall.


first off, the Spurs are not bound to draft a guard in this draft. and second, why not add defensive to those superior skills? that's why, if the Spurs draft a guard at all with their own pick, I prefer Castle over Dillingham. (I wouldn't want Topic, at least not with the Spurs pick. if they pick him with the Raptors pick at 7 or later....ok, I can live with it)

I think we have a different approach to this draft, because you don't see Risacher as a legitimate option in case Spurs win the lottery. my approach is, if they win a top pick, let's use it on Risacher. (if he's there). if they don't win and draft later, let's think about Cody Williams. he kind of went from overrated to underrated. at 6 or 7 I can see him as the right pick. I think especially the later injury hurt his stock to much, after the ankle injury in late February he wasn't the same. so I give him the benefit of the doubt.

[JPB]

[/LIST]

this is actually very good accuracy as far as nailing how the players are evaluated/valued around the league. has average margin error was 2.2 picks. thats not bad at all

Yup, specially if you consider GMs making bad picks and the ones they should have made. Again, a mock draft isn't about predicting what every team is gonna do, it's about ranking players on perceived value, specially the ones made before we do even know where every team is gonna pick.

As far as size is concerned picking Miller over Scoot last year, because of size and versatility vs. "superior skills, ball handlings and scoring abilities", and the outcome of that, is gonna go a long way for Risacher being picked #1 over shorter guards in this draft.

[Ariel]

Yup, specially if you consider GMs making bad picks and the ones they should have made. Again, a mock draft isn't about predicting what every team is gonna do, it's about ranking players on perceived value, specially the ones made before we do even know where every team is gonna pick
Mock drafts are team specific, rankings based on value are called big boards.

[Dejounte]

One could argue this is a hit for Givony and a miss for Golden State, and a good example of a media talking head making a better choice than a professional NBA GM & FO.
This same mock also had Sengun at 12, and other bad misses (like Trey Murphy) so it’s not really making good choices overall. My argument isn’t about teams making better choices than media talking heads.

[Dejounte]

Plenty of teams drafting worse than consensus, and arguably that includes the Spurs if we're just considering the past 5 years. No sense paying a whole bunch of scouts if you can't consistently beat random internet mocks.

Teams drafting worse than consensus doesn’t mean the consensus is correct. The consensus gets it wrong plenty of times too.

[Dejounte]

[/LIST]

this is actually very good accuracy as far as nailing how the players are evaluated/valued around the league. has average margin error was 2.2 picks. thats not bad at all

Let me clarify my point here in that these mock drafts being semi-accurate or whatever is not relevant to how most readers perceive mock drafts in general. An individual generally views players at the top as better than players mocked later. That’s just how it is and there’s so much evidence that it’s wrong. So relying on how these prospects are ordered by media talking heads to gauge talent is the wrong choice since time and time again we see how everything ends up in a re-draft.

[Ariel]

Teams drafting worse than consensus doesn’t mean the consensus is correct. The consensus gets it wrong plenty of times too.
Of course, but I never said that. My point is that's the bare minimum standard any should measure themselves against. If you get consistently outperformed by consensus mock drafts, then you might as well be replaced by a 5 liner bot.

[Dejounte]

Of course, but I never said that. My point is that's the bare minimum standard any should measure themselves against. If you get consistently outperformed by consensus mock drafts, then you might as well be replaced by a 5 liner bot.

Sound reasoning at first but after some thought I’m not sure I agree with that. Teams doing their due diligence that writers of these mock drafts can’t do such as in-person accounts of players by team scouts, reviewing collected tape over the years, analytics, interviews, workouts, scrimmages should be the baseline… not these mock drafts. Because again, in a re-draft, all mock drafts (and big boards) are consistently wrong in terms of how players are ranked talent-wise. And yes, even after teams do their due diligence they can get it wrong. But that has more to do with that team and their personnel than the process itself.

[spurraider21]

Let me clarify my point here in that these mock drafts being semi-accurate or whatever is not relevant to how most readers perceive mock drafts in general. An individual generally views players at the top as better than players mocked later. That’s just how it is and there’s so much evidence that it’s wrong. So relying on how these prospects are ordered by media talking heads to gauge talent is the wrong choice since time and time again we see how everything ends up in a re-draft.
Strong disagree. Mock drafts are meant to give fans a preview of how the drafts are expected to go. Yes in part this is done by the mock drafter evaluating prospects (or just parroting off others) to estimate how high that given player is expected to go.

i never look at mock drafts and mean “oh that means this guy being mocked at 25 is destined to be an nba failure” or “this guy in the top 10 is a sure fire good starter.” Nobody evaluates any sport with 100% accuracy. But yeah generally the more successful nba players are the ones picked at the top.

[Uriel]

5. San Antonio Spurs (https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/sa/san-antonio-spurs) | Average pick: 5.0

No. 1 pick odds: 10.5% | Top-three pick odds: 31.6%
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
1. Rob Dillingham
2. Nikola Topic
3. Reed Sheppard
4. Zaccharie Risacher

Most likely pick if they stay at 5: Rob Dillingham | PG

The Spurs struck gold in last year's draft lottery, and this year is icing on the cake while building around Victor Wembanyama (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/5104157/victor-wembanyama)'s star power. The Spurs' messy Jeremy Sochan (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4610139/jeremy-sochan) experiment only amplified the need for a point guard who can complement Wembanyama's extraordinary skill level, making the draft's top backcourt prospects the natural place to look regardless of where this pick lands.

Dillingham's combination of perimeter shooting, ballhandling and pick-and-roll playmaking gives him significant offensive potential to grow into long term. His size and defensive limitations could be mitigated alongside a future Defensive Player of the Year-caliber rim-protector such as Wembanyama cleaning up mistakes behind him.

Topic is the best passer in this class and has enviable size that allows for significant flexibility in roster construction. He can reliably get the ball where it needs to be but has some questions about his perimeter shooting.

Sheppard's outstanding perimeter shooting, feel for the game and unselfish style of play also make for an intriguing fit for the Spurs both short term and long term. His average physical tools might not be an issue alongside Wembanyama, who could take pressure off Sheppard on both ends of the floor.

Risacher is another safe option in many ways, even if he doesn't answer any of the immediate questions the Spurs have in the backcourt. -- Givony
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40103243/2024-nba-draft-lottery-potential-picks-odds-every-team

[Uriel]

If Givony says Dillingham and timvp says Dillingham, then Dillingham must be our man.

[Pauleta14]

If Givony says Dillingham and timvp says Dillingham, then Dillingham must be our man.

Genuine question... Has Givony or any other renown journalist ever been right in his predictions? and When? (Wemby aside of course)

[Dejounte]

Strong disagree. Mock drafts are meant to give fans a preview of how the drafts are expected to go. Yes in part this is done by the mock drafter evaluating prospects (or just parroting off others) to estimate how high that given player is expected to go.

i never look at mock drafts and mean “oh that means this guy being mocked at 25 is destined to be an nba failure” or “this guy in the top 10 is a sure fire good starter.” Nobody evaluates any sport with 100% accuracy. But yeah generally the more successful nba players are the ones picked at the top.

You are in the minority in the statements you make in your second paragraph and you know it. There are mountains of posts on here of guys saying they have very low to no expectations from players selected outside the lottery. Even the ones drafted in late lottery people think there’s no hope for them. Half of the all stars this year were selected after the 10th pick, which tells you again that writers are often wrong about how they evaluate prospects. You may say, “mock drafts are meant to give a preview…” and that fans don’t use it as a means to rank talent but that’s again off base because you have people wanting to trade up in the draft year after year which tells you they think those players mocked at the top are of greater talent then talent picked later.

[Ariel]

Sound reasoning at first but after some thought I’m not sure I agree with that. Teams doing their due diligence that writers of these mock drafts can’t do such as in-person accounts of players by team scouts, reviewing collected tape over the years, analytics, interviews, workouts, scrimmages should be the baseline… not these mock drafts. Because again, in a re-draft, all mock drafts are consistently wrong.
Yet all those interviews and due dilligence can't tell apart a guy who will play his ass off from a lazy bum who won't chase his man on a fast break or a healthy, normal teen from another with deep rooted traumas and serial sexual misconducts; and all that tape, analytics, workouts and scrimmages lead you to overanalyze and make choices that no one else would and come up short time and again. Overconfidence is often worse than ignorance, and I'd rather assume nothing than make the wrong assumption.

Bottom line, at the end of the day everyone will be wrong when compared to the hindsight ideal draft, the question is HOW wrong. Media are in the business of selliing content (and often something else) and they have their own biases and agendas, and of course teams should be held to a higher standard. The problem is that, even with all their resources, they often fail to meet a basic YouTube draft blogger big board. That isn't to say that random big boards are great nor do they make actual scouting redundant, but if you can't top them on the face of their limitations, then maybe you should take it as a hint that something may be wrong in its execution (you as in general, not you specifically).

[Dejounte]

Yet all those interviews and due dilligence can't tell apart a guy who will play his ass off from a lazy bum who won't chase his man on a fast break or a healthy, normal teen from another with deep rooted traumas and serial sexual misconducts; and all that tape, analytics, workouts and scrimmages lead you to overanalyze and make choices that no one else would and come up short time and again. Overconfidence is often worse than ignorance, and I'd rather assume nothing than make the wrong assumption.

Bottom line, at the end of the day everyone will be wrong when compared to the hindsight ideal draft, the question is HOW wrong. Media are in the business of selliing content (and often something else) and they have their own biases and agendas, and of course teams should be held to a higher standard. The problem is that, even with all their resources, they often fail to meet a basic YouTube draft blogger big board. That isn't to say that random big boards are great nor do they make actual scouting redundant, but if you can't top them on the face of their limitations, then maybe you should take it as a hint that something may be wrong in its execution (you as in general, not you specifically).

Again, I acknowledged that extensive effort in any of those activities hasn’t prevented a team from drafting the wrong player and pointed to that being a personnel problem. One team or several having no success with drafting compared to mock draft writers repeatedly doesn’t mean the process is pointless and that all teams should throw their hands up in the air and surrender their pay to mock draft writers.

[Mr. Body]

first off, the Spurs are not bound to draft a guard in this draft. and second, why not add defensive to those superior skills? that's why, if the Spurs draft a guard at all with their own pick, I prefer Castle over Dillingham. (I wouldn't want Topic, at least not with the Spurs pick. if they pick him with the Raptors pick at 7 or later....ok, I can live with it)

I think we have a different approach to this draft, because you don't see Risacher as a legitimate option in case Spurs win the lottery. my approach is, if they win a top pick, let's use it on Risacher. (if he's there). if they don't win and draft later, let's think about Cody Williams. he kind of went from overrated to underrated. at 6 or 7 I can see him as the right pick. I think especially the later injury hurt his stock to much, after the ankle injury in late February he wasn't the same. so I give him the benefit of the doubt.

I see no reason why the Spurs wouldn't draft a guard. If that's the player who they think is good, why on earth not? This team needs talent. Reaching for a SF just because they need one isn't a good practice.

I don't dislike Risacher. I'd be happy with him with the Toronto pick. If he's all they get out of this draft, I'll gag. Or, at least, if they take him top 4. I suppose if they drop and only have their pick, maybe he's the best available.