Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[TSA]

I posted incorrect threads together. Here is what I meant to post together.



https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1243134237773107200

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1243137256723972098

[MannyIsGod]

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Thats the site I've been using and it has some useful information that I hadn't noticed before. If you scroll down to the map, you can click on a state and the data is filtered for that state. You can then scroll down even further and see a plot with a function for best fit plotted on the curve. This gives you a daily growth percentage which you can then use the rule of 70 to calculate the doubling time in days.

So for example, Louisiana's daily growth rate is 27%. 70/27 = a doubling time of ~2.6. At the current rate, its completely within reason to expect to see the current 1800 cases grow to 60,000 in the next 2 weeks. That is pretty fucking bad.

[MannyIsGod]

This is why its hard for me to be optimistic when analyzing data for this online:

1243209497579053059

The COVID tracking project had the figure at 3800. That's a HUGE difference.

There's not a single place over representing data but there is a ton of under representing. We know cases are way under reported. There's a huge lack of hospitalization and negative test information. The death counts are likely pretty good, but they're also prone to severe lag times of up to 1 month so they don't tell you what the current situation is.

Its hard as hell to say that things are going to turn out better than the current trends say when we know the data is severely underrepresented.

[SnakeBoy]

China just closed borders to foreigners

fears of 2nd wave grow

its not over even in china while we are not even in diapers yet

this will be a long fucking fight and it will get much worse before we even see a glimmer of hope

This is the way it will be until enough people have had it to provide some level of herd immunity. We (the world) can only do our best to have a controlled burn rate and hopefully save many lives.

[hater]

since you nigas seem enthusiastic about this stuff heres a good site to play with parameters galore with coronavirus scenarios

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/


enjoy

[RandomGuy]

They're extrapolating that one small random sampling and taking their best model. I'd be very leery of doing that without getting a much more robust set of random tests.

We definitely need random testing though.

Yes. Yes we do.

[Thread]

Yes. Yes we do.

Does trace amount of good...a negative is a negative for as long it takes that person to walk out of the testing station & back into the community.

[SnakeBoy]

They're extrapolating that one small random sampling and taking their best model. I'd be very leery of doing that without getting a much more robust set of random tests.

We definitely need random testing though.

We need an antibody test as well

[Thread]

This is the way it will be until enough people have had it to provide some level of herd immunity. We (the world) can only do our best to have a controlled burn rate and hopefully save many lives.

Until you lock down it-will-not-stop.

& I ain't talking about a lock down where you can wander about the highways & byways, city streets, beaches, and parks, on & on.

But, we know that. We just will not do it & we ain't even close.

But, why should we be?,,,we've been standing 100k of Regular Flu deaths year after year...we've been standing 100k of traffic deaths year after year & been just right as the post over it. No biggee.

[hater]

Until you lock down it-will-not-stop.

& I ain't talking about a lock down where you can wander about the highways & byways, city streets, beaches, and parks, on & on.

But, we know that. We just will not do it & we ain't even close.

But, why should we be?,,,we've been standing 100k of Regular Flu deaths year after year...we've been standing 100k of traffic deaths year after year & been just right as the post over it. No biggee.

agree

but regular flu cases do not overwhelm our system

this would

big difference

[TSA]

https://twitter.com/marlo_safi/status/1243201261157130247

:lol hater

[Thread]

agree

but regular flu cases do not overwhelm our system

this would

big difference

Because we ignored that 100k every year dying like that of Regular Flu. And we're ignoring them now...sure the old man brings 'em up once in a blue moon, but, nothing sustained. & he's only doing it to irritate.

They will be ID'd & accounted for AFTER Corona is tamed.

[midnightpulp]

https://twitter.com/marlo_safi/status/1243201261157130247

:lol hater

:lmao (not at the grave situation but at hater).

"Made in China."

[boutons_deux]

Trash's CDC tests were also defective. where's the hilarity?

[hater]

Because we ignored that 100k every year dying like that of Regular Flu. And we're ignoring them now...sure the old man brings 'em up once in a blue moon, but, nothing sustained. & he's only doing it to irritate.

They will be ID'd & accounted for AFTER Corona is tamed.

no no

regular flu does not overwhelm our system

this does as an avalanche of sick ppl would flood hospitals

[Fat Brandon Bass]

Dr. Shlomo now says projected US death count will be 6 million and a Covidcaust museum should be built after this blows over

[picnroll]

The project I was on during my masters work was looking at the viability of bacterial spores (not anthrax but similar) after they were airborne for awhile. We were looking to see if the ongoing chemical reactions in the atmosphere made them nonviable and really what we found was that UV was the main driver of this. But this was for airborne aerosols that were always exposed to sunlight if it was available (meaning it wasn't cloudy or night time). This obviously changes in different environments ie indoors or inside of a human body.

Frankly, I would be shocked if UV DIDN'T degrade a a virus. UV is highly energetic which is why it breaks molecular bonds (and why it damages human cells) so it should definitely have a detrimental effect on the virus. But if the virus doesn't spend a lot of time in the air anyway since its not really airborne (the bacterial spores we looked at ARE transmitted in an airborne manner which is why this was important), then I'm not sure how much UV exposure it gets. That part I have absolutely no idea about.

But yeah UV is going to be bad for virus viability.
UV is definitely not recommended for sterilizing N95 masks. UV degrades the electrostatic charge of the mask. In fact it’s recommended to keep those masks away from sunlight. UV also is recommended to not use for skin.

[RandomGuy]

This is why its hard for me to be optimistic when analyzing data for this online:

1243209497579053059

The COVID tracking project had the figure at 3800. That's a HUGE difference.

There's not a single place over representing data but there is a ton of under representing. We know cases are way under reported. There's a huge lack of hospitalization and negative test information. The death counts are likely pretty good, but they're also prone to severe lag times of up to 1 month so they don't tell you what the current situation is.

Its hard as hell to say that things are going to turn out better than the current trends say when we know the data is severely underrepresented.

Eyup. too many unknowns in how the data is being collected and reported to really make much of it, other than a rough guide as to overall trends. It is like trying to look at something really large through a pinhole in a wall.

Information always has to be taken in some context, especially in rapidly developing events.

[picnroll]

:lmao (not at the grave situation but at hater).

"Made in China."
All part of China’s grand scheme to destroy the west.

[hater]

510,000 infected :wow

my prediction is more than halfway there sadly :(

of course Im sure millions are infected already but Ill let that go for now

called it :tu

[Winehole23]

Because we ignored that 100k every year dying like that of Regular Flu. And we're ignoring them now...sure the old man brings 'em up once in a blue moon, but, nothing sustained. & he's only doing it to irritate.

They will be ID'd & accounted for AFTER Corona is tamed.You're exaggerating.

Annual death from the seasonal flu generally fluctuates between 20,000 and 60,000 deaths per year.

Only in pandemics like 1918, 1957 and 1968 has US mortality reached 100,000 souls.

[RandomGuy]

since you nigas seem enthusiastic about this stuff heres a good site to play with parameters galore with coronavirus scenarios

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/


enjoy

(bookmarks)

Very interesting. May have to program that into a spreadsheet.

(edit)

mucked about with the thing considering US population as a whole. probably not really feasible given US geography.

[picnroll]

no no

regular flu does not overwhelm our system

this does as an avalanche of sick ppl would flood hospitals

Something tells me you’re enjoying this too much. You need to read a few stories from the frontline healthcare providers.

[MannyIsGod]

UV is definitely not recommended for sterilizing N95 masks. UV degrades the electrostatic charge of the mask. In fact it’s recommended to keep those masks away from sunlight. UV also is recommended to not use for skin.

Yeah I wasn't talking about using an active UV source for anything just talking about naturally occurring UV and its possible effects on the virus. I know nothing about the masks.

[Thread]

no no

regular flu does not overwhelm our system

this does as an avalanche of sick ppl would flood hospitals

I'd rather have a grand dead than 23 grand dead.

[RandomGuy]

You're exaggerating.

Annual death from the seasonal flu generally fluctuates between 20,000 and 60,000 deaths per year.

Only in pandemics like 1918, 1957 and 1968 has US mortality reached 100,000 souls.

Dude is making the same point, over and over and over and over and over. it was stupid the first time. At some point you have to realize it is a troll schtick, that not even he believes. Once you figure that out, giving him time reading/responding is simply giving the sociopath what he wants, i.e. your attention.

[Splits]

no no

regular flu does not overwhelm our system

this does as an avalanche of sick ppl would flood hospitals

The numbers coming out of NYC/NJ alone are roughly equivalent to what was/is coming out of Lombardy, an entire region in Italy (which includes Milan, but it wasn't the epicenter), crammed into a couple dozen square miles. It is going to be a bloodbath unless they've got the most advanced health care system in the world.

[midnightpulp]

Hmmm, UK no longer considers Covid-19 a high consequence infectious disease.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

And this downgrade doesn't come because they were "prepared." They probably had the worst response to this in the Western world, with Johnson advocating the "herd immunity" idea early on.

Either the UK government isn't being forthcoming due to an agenda like protecting further economic meltdown. The herd immunity idea worked. Or the virus's efficacy in its R0 factor and hospitalization and mortality rates has been way, way overstated for weeks.

To clarify, I'm not downplaying at all (a "mild" consequence infectious disease we have no immunity to is still a big problem). But this might be the first pinhole of light coming from the end of the tunnel. Unless the UK is being underhanded in some way.

[Winehole23]

Dude is making the same point, over and over and over and over and over. it was stupid the first time. At some point you have to realize it is a troll schtick, that not even he believes. Once you figure that out, giving him time reading/responding is simply giving the sociopath what he wants, i.e. your attention.It seldoms costs much energy or time to tell Thread he's wrong and show everyone else just how. If that gratifies him, that's his deal, not mine.

In this case the specificity of the claim -- 100,000 deaths per year from the flu -- looked new to me. It's bullshit.

[hater]

Something tells me you’re enjoying this too much. You need to read a few stories from the frontline healthcare providers.

something tells me you are way off nig

[pgardn]

This is why longer hours (Northern hemisphere) with sunlight(contains uv light) is preferable.
It is also why proper sterile labs have UV lights to turn on when one leaves the room.
UV is wonderful at causing screwups in DNA and RNA (this virus is a RNA virus)
A fantastic sterilizer that can get at places wiping down cannot.

Also for you multicellular humans: wear your sunscreen, uv causes mutations that lead to skin cancer.


They aren't saying UV light to cure an infection. The theory is that since the primary mode of transmission is respiratory droplets the higher UV light reduces the ability of the virus to remain infectious in the air. These are non enveloped rna viruses, they have zero protection from UV light in the environment.

You did not read my first post.
I was in no way suggesting this.
If you are going to be out in the sun you need to wear sunscreen

There have already been people that did take direct sun as helping.

The idea that UV sterilizes surfaces is much more important imobthan droplet simply because a virus is most likely to spend more time on a surface.


It painfully obvious biology taught freshman year in most HS is not sticking.
In many of the posts here as well.

And they are not non enveloped. They have a lipid bilayer envelope with protein receptors, (not just a protein capsule) which is why they are so susceptible to soap. soap is a detergent that disrupts and breaks the lipid bilayer.

[hater]

The numbers coming out of NYC/NJ alone are roughly equivalent to what was/is coming out of Lombardy, an entire region in Italy (which includes Milan, but it wasn't the epicenter), crammed into a couple dozen square miles. It is going to be a bloodbath unless they've got the most advanced health care system in the world.

the overflow was expected to be not 2x not 3x not 4x greater than capacity

but more like 8,9 or 10 times

doesnt take a brain surgeon to know that areas is fucked

UK is taking it in the rear end as well

[Splits]

Hmmm, UK no longer considers Covid-19 a high consequence infectious disease.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

And this downgrade doesn't come because they were "prepared." They probably had the worst response to this in the Western world, with Johnson advocating the "herd immunity" idea early on.

Either the UK government isn't being forthcoming due to an agenda like protecting further economic meltdown. The herd immunity idea worked. Or the virus's efficacy in its R0 factor and hospitalization and mortality rates has been way, way overstated for weeks.

To clarify, I'm not downplaying at all (a "mild" consequence infectious disease we have no immunity to is still a big problem). But this might be the first pinhole of light coming from the end of the tunnel. Unless the UK is being underhanded in some way.

They're just correcting an initial overreaction. Obviously it doesn't fit their criteria:


Definition of HCIDIn the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria:


acute infectious disease
typically has a high case-fatality rate
may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment
often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly
ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings
requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely



Even if it was 5%, that's not "high" and certainly 1% isn't.

[Splits]

1242302400762908685

[Spurs Homer]

Mexicans pissed off:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656

[hater]

Mexicans pissed off:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656

many moons ago I said Mexicans need to build a wall on their northern border to protect themselves from american hordes

their inaction is paying a heavy price

[Blake]

They're just correcting an initial overreaction. Obviously it doesn't fit their criteria:



Even if it was 5%, that's not "high" and certainly 1% isn't.

Also:

"The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response..."

Which includes the stay at home and social distancing mandates

[SnakeBoy]

Mexicans pissed off:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656

"a group member" says

[spurraider21]

They're just correcting an initial overreaction. Obviously it doesn't fit their criteria:



Even if it was 5%, that's not "high" and certainly 1% isn't.
do we know what standard they use to determine high case-fatality rate?

[Blake]

many moons ago I said Mexicans need to build a wall on their northern border to protect themselves from american hordes

their inaction is paying a heavy price

For kicks I just saw the day after tomorrow with Dennis Quaid the other night and was cracking up at the part where hordes of Americans are fleeing south because of the big freeze. The reporters noted that Americans were now the illegal aliens

[RandomGuy]

Hmmm, UK no longer considers Covid-19 a high consequence infectious disease.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

And this downgrade doesn't come because they were "prepared." They probably had the worst response to this in the Western world, with Johnson advocating the "herd immunity" idea early on.

Either the UK government isn't being forthcoming due to an agenda like protecting further economic meltdown. The herd immunity idea worked. Or the virus's efficacy in its R0 factor and hospitalization and mortality rates has been way, way overstated for weeks.

To clarify, I'm not downplaying at all (a "mild" consequence infectious disease we have no immunity to is still a big problem). But this might be the first pinhole of light coming from the end of the tunnel. Unless the UK is being underhanded in some way.

This is Boris Johnson you are talking about. Dude makes Trump look like a genius.

They are just a couple weeks behind in their curve.

[hater]

For kicks I just saw the day after tomorrow with Dennis Quaid the other night and was cracking up at the part where hordes of Americans are fleeing south because of the big freeze. The reporters noted that Americans were now the illegal aliens

shoe in the other foot happens more often than ppl think

[Splits]

do we know what standard they use to determine high case-fatality rate?

If there is, I didn't see it. I'm sure it's intentionally obtuse.

[Nathan89]

For kicks I just saw the day after tomorrow with Dennis Quaid the other night and was cracking up at the part where hordes of Americans are fleeing south because of the big freeze. The reporters noted that Americans were now the illegal aliens

They'd just be called "immigrants" by modern leftists.

[Winehole23]

the overflow was expected to be not 2x not 3x not 4x greater than capacity

but more like 8,9 or 10 times

doesnt take a brain surgeon to know that areas is fucked

UK is taking it in the rear end as wellNYC is probably going to run out of space at the morgue in the next two days.

The last time NYC needed mortuary assistance was after 9/11.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/25/dhs-briefing-nyc-morgues-near-capacity-148259

[Nathan89]

shoe in the other foot happens more often than ppl think

It has yet to happen with regards to this though.

[hater]

It has yet to happen with regards to this though.

kinda has sadly

most countries are not easily accepting american travelers anymore

many south american countries, china, etc

[Blake]

They'd just be called "immigrants" by modern leftists.

Or "employees" at Mar Del Lago

[midnightpulp]

They're just correcting an initial overreaction. Obviously it doesn't fit their criteria:



Even if it was 5%, that's not "high" and certainly 1% isn't.

True. Not sure what they qualify as high case fatality rate. But shit, even this thing being double the flu's mortality rate is a big problem. That's how close to the edge we organize our health care infrastructure.

[midnightpulp]

This is Boris Johnson you are talking about. Dude makes Trump look like a genius.

They are just a couple weeks behind in their curve.

They just got hit with 115 today :cry.

What Johnson did up to this was criminal. Or maybe we can blame the Dutch researchers who were promoting the theory. Netherlands is also taking a hit.

[Winehole23]

They'd just be called "immigrants" by modern leftists.Believe it or not, it took about 40 years of right wing propaganda to make "illegal alien" common usage.

[boutons_deux]

"The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response..."

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

[RandomGuy]

Or "employees" at Mar Del Lago

:lol

Trump's properties are almost all shuttered. He is going to have a hard time paying Deutsche Bank back. The co-signers of the loans might have to cough up.

[Winehole23]

:lol

Trump's properties are almost all shuttered. He is going to have a hard time paying Deutsche Bank back. The co-signers of the loans might have to cough up.Who co-signed?

[Blake]

Who co-signed?

Jared? Just guessing

[Winehole23]

Heading this one off at the pass. The Gateway Pundit spreads superstition.

1243001825005047812

[Splits]

True. Not sure what they qualify as high case fatality rate. But shit, even this thing being double the flu's mortality rate is a big problem. That's how close to the edge we organize our health care infrastructure.

Death rate aside, it's a shame we don't have accurate numbers from China, because Italy's peak is concerning me. They're into day 6 and those daily deaths need to start dropping, you can't sustain a 2+ week peak. There's not much reason to believe the track they are on won't be replicated in NY/NJ in 10 days but with bigger numbers.

[Nathan89]

kinda has sadly

most countries are not easily accepting american travelers anymore

many south american countries, china, etc

So kinda like America to the people of other countries? Also not many are trying to travel at the moment.

[Nathan89]

https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1242928863010848768?s=20

The "enemy of the people" are pissed about Trump's polling numbers.

[hater]

23,600 dead already?? wth it was 15, 000 just a couple days ago :wow

that death graph looks exponential :wow

[Blake]

https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1242928863010848768?s=20

The "enemy of the people" are pissed about Trump's polling numbers.

Because "Open by Easter" is friend of the people

[Splits]

23,600 dead already?? wth it was 15, 000 just a couple days ago :wow

that death graph looks exponential :wow

Europe peaking, 2k a day

[hater]

at what point will americans completely freak out?

how many deaths a day will it take?

maybe 3k/day? thats like a 9/11 attack a day :wow

[Spurminator]

The "enemy of the people" are pissed about Trump's polling numbers.

Trump's polling numbers aren't a result of broadcasts on CNN and MSNBC, fuckwit.

Anyway, good for them. Now is not the time to be spreading disinformation.

[Nathan89]

Because "Open by Easter" is friend of the people

That was a hopeful target.

[Nathan89]

https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1242928863010848768?s=20

The "enemy of the people" are pissed about Trump's polling numbers.

Btw these things are getting massive ratings. His approval is going up though so the biased media has to try hide Trump like Biden. They are really showing their ass. Although they've been doing that for years now.

[Nathan89]

Trump's polling numbers aren't a result of broadcasts on CNN and MSNBC, fuckwit.

Anyway, good for them. Now is not the time to be spreading disinformation.

He's been improving with Dems and Independents. Do they not watch those networks anymore?

Thanks for running with that bullshit narrative.

[Chucho]

at what point will americans completely freak out?

how many deaths a day will it take?

maybe 3k/day? thats like a 9/11 attack a day :wow


Meh. The world's over populated like a mother fuck. The herds need a'thinin'. Dont understand why people are so worried. Science says we're too heavy a burden on this planet. Also, it's natural selection.

It should be a win-win for the science, environmentalist and Jim-Carrey-types crowds.

[ChumpDumper]

Btw these things are getting massive ratings. His approval is going up though so the biased media has to try hide Trump like Biden. They are really showing their ass. Although they've been doing that for years now.He's spreading lies and misinformation every meeting.

Why?

[Nathan89]

Trump is so dangerous that they have to pin lunatics taking fish cleaner on him because he brought up a study regarding medication. How dare he be hopeful about a potential breakthrough. The "enemy of the people" strangely was not critical of Cuomo regarding the same study. And then the idiots run with their narrative for cutting off the President.

[picnroll]

He's spreading lies and misinformation every meeting.

Why?

Ummm, to get re-elected?

[vy65]

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

[ChumpDumper]

Trump is so dangerous that they have to pin lunatics taking fish cleaner on him because he brought up a study regarding medication. How dare he be hopeful about a potential breakthrough. You do know that lupus patients are being cut off from their meds now, don't you?

That make you happy?

[RandomGuy]

Heading this one off at the pass. The Gateway Pundit spreads superstition.

1243001825005047812

:lol

[hater]

Meh. The world's over populated like a mother fuck. The herds need a'thinin'. Dont understand why people are so worried. Science says we're too heavy a burden on this planet. Also, it's natural selection.

It should be a win-win for the science, environmentalist and Jim-Carrey-types crowds.

sure but the myth that americans are “safe” and american exceptionalism will be exposed

“emperor has no clothes” type of shit

the propaganda that it will take to brainwash americans back to submission will be almost impossible to achieve

[hater]

it will probably take WWVI and a while lot more of police state to keep things together

[RandomGuy]

Trump is so dangerous that they have to pin lunatics taking fish cleaner on him because he brought up a study regarding medication. How dare he be hopeful about a potential breakthrough. The "enemy of the people" strangely was not critical of Cuomo regarding the same study. And then the idiots run with their narrative for cutting off the President.

Trump is so dangerous they have quit televising his pressers live, so that he doesn't spread misinformation that kills people.

The gal who took the meds said she took it because Trump pushed it on TV.

You fucking (unt.

[RandomGuy]

Who co-signed?

not sure, tbh. No one would loan to his deadbeat ass, until DB decided they would grow by any means necessary, but even they might have required some extra incentive. Would be very interesting to see what pops out of the paperwork once it hits the oversight committees.

[RandomGuy]

... and there it is:

Nearly 3 dozen who attended church event test positive for coronavirus

Nearly three dozen people who attended a recent children's event at a church in Arkansas have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to church officials.

Donald Shipp, a deacon at First Assembly of God church in Greers Ferry, about 75 miles north of Little Rock, told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that 34 people who attended the event in early March at the Cleburne County church had tested positive for the coronavirus, and that an unknown number of others were awaiting test results.

https://news.yahoo.com/nearly-3-dozen-attended-church-162140865.html

[Splits]

US might overtake China before Italy does in total cases


https://i.imgur.com/KajIsdq.png

called it

[ChumpDumper]

... and there it is:

Nearly 3 dozen who attended church event test positive for coronavirus

Nearly three dozen people who attended a recent children's event at a church in Arkansas have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to church officials.

Donald Shipp, a deacon at First Assembly of God church in Greers Ferry, about 75 miles north of Little Rock, told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that 34 people who attended the event in early March at the Cleburne County church had tested positive for the coronavirus, and that an unknown number of others were awaiting test results.

https://news.yahoo.com/nearly-3-dozen-attended-church-162140865.htmlHoly shit.

That's 4% of the population of that town and 10% of the total cases in Arkansas.

[boutons_deux]

Holy shit.

That's 4% of the population of that town and 10% of the total cases in Arkansas.


Louisiana pastor says he has 1,000 people at services, defying state coronavirus orders

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/26/coronavirus-louisiana-pastor-has-services-1000-defies-state-order/2914259001/

[Spurminator]

He's been improving with Dems and Independents. Do they not watch those networks anymore?

Thanks for running with that bullshit narrative.

He had nowhere to go but up with Dems and Independents. I don't care about approval ratings. Right now truth is all that matters, not performative PR from the country's biggest narcissist.

He's objectively dishonest and you're a piece of shit for defending him.

[boutons_deux]

L Graham says the stimulus bill is so generous that nurses will quit their jobs to make more from UI, and Noot Gingrich agrees.

[ChumpDumper]

Louisiana pastor says he has 1,000 people at services, defying state coronavirus orders

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/26/coronavirus-louisiana-pastor-has-services-1000-defies-state-order/2914259001/
I can cut the AR folks a little slack because the infections occurred pretty early; March 6-8. No excuse for any rube now.

[Nathan89]

Trump is so dangerous they have quit televising his pressers live, so that he doesn't spread misinformation that kills people.

The gal who took the meds said she took it because Trump pushed it on TV.

You fucking (unt.

Trump didn't push fish cleaner on TV. Not did he push self medicating.

Trump is so dangerous the people pushing conspiracy theories for years have to take him off tv because "he's lying". Or maybe it's because his poll numbers are improving. Seems clear to me but you run with what you want.

[Splits]

Of course I would.

Me being of questionable character? Christ, every time we've ever golfed you always end up on the other side of the green. Always. I've yet to hear you strike the ball anywhere around a green. "I'll meet you on the hole, Dale, go ahead."

I go to my side, hit it, strain to hear you (no sound) climb up & you're always on the fuckin' green within 6 ft of the hole, on your fuckin' phone, leanin' on your putter.

1243278976988196864

[Nathan89]

Cuomo admits his decision to quarantine everyone at once was 'not the best strategy' and that he is 'working on' release of coronavirus antibody test that will allow people to go back to work


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8156457/Cuomo-says-probably-not-best-strategy-quarantine-once.html

"He said he wants to now simultaneously cut back on the public health risk and reboot the economy"

Wait that's what Trump wants. Time for the media to crucify him.

[ChumpDumper]

Trump didn't push fish cleaner on TV. Not did he push self medicating.

Trump is so dangerous the people pushing conspiracy theories for years have to take him off tv because "he's lying". Or maybe it's because his poll numbers are improving. Seems clear to me but you run with what you want.No, it's because he's lying. It's clear.

No comment on the lupus patients who can't get their meds anymore? Not even running with what you want there?

[ChumpDumper]

Cuomo admits his decision to quarantine everyone at once was 'not the best strategy' and that he is 'working on' release of coronavirus antibody test that will allow people to go back to work


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8156457/Cuomo-says-probably-not-best-strategy-quarantine-once.html

"He said he wants to now simultaneously cut back on the public health risk and reboot the economy"

Wait that's what Trump wants. Time for the media to crucify him.When did Trump say anything about antibody testing?

[RandomGuy]

He had nowhere to go but up with Dems and Independents. I don't care about approval ratings. Right now truth is all that matters, not performative PR from the country's biggest narcissist.

He's objectively dishonest and you're a piece of shit for defending him.

As wise man once said:

"Who is the bigger fool, the fool or the fool who follows him?"

[Thread]

Cuomo admits his decision to quarantine everyone at once was 'not the best strategy' and that he is 'working on' release of coronavirus antibody test that will allow people to go back to work


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8156457/Cuomo-says-probably-not-best-strategy-quarantine-once.html

"He said he wants to now simultaneously cut back on the public health risk and reboot the economy"

Wait that's what Trump wants. Time for the media to crucify him.

As usual Nathan with a crucial find.

Nathan

[Nathan89]

He had nowhere to go but up with Dems and Independents. I don't care about approval ratings. Right now truth is all that matters, not performative PR from the country's biggest narcissist.

He's objectively dishonest and you're a piece of shit for defending him.

He could've stayed right where he was. The media didn't like uptick and now they have to hide him.

Sweden is basically doing nothing right now. Trump formed a task force in January and blocked travel from China only to be called a racist. If the CDC didn't botch their test we'd be in pretty much as good of a position as possible. That's the substance.

[RandomGuy]

Trump didn't push fish cleaner on TV. Not did he push self medicating.

Trump is so dangerous the people pushing conspiracy theories for years have to take him off tv because "he's lying". Or maybe it's because his poll numbers are improving. Seems clear to me but you run with what you want.

Arizona Man Dies After Ingesting Fish Tank Chloroquine To Prevent Coronavirus

The man’s wife, who has not been named publicly, told NBC News that she and her husband decided to ingest the aquarium product after hearing Trump on TV refer to two anti-malaria drugs — chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine — as a potential “game changer” in the fight against COVID-19.

“I saw it sitting on the back shelf and thought, ‘hey, isn’t that the stuff they’re talking about on TV?’” the woman told NBC.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/arizona-man-chloroquine-coronavirus-dead_n_5e7994f4c5b62f90bc506029

Do you need a link to Trump talking about this as a game changer?

You.
Stupid.
(unt.

[Nathan89]

Arizona Man Dies After Ingesting Fish Tank Chloroquine To Prevent Coronavirus

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/arizona-man-chloroquine-coronavirus-dead_n_5e7994f4c5b62f90bc506029

Do you need a link to Trump talking about this as a game changer?

You.
Stupid.
(unt.

Yes, quote Trump talking about self medicating with fish tank cleaner.

[Winehole23]

He could've stayed right where he was. The media didn't like uptick and now they have to hide him.

Sweden is basically doing nothing right now. Trump formed a task force in January and blocked travel from China only to be called a racist. If the CDC didn't botch their test we'd be in pretty much as good of a position as possible. That's the substance.The CDC is an executive branch agency.

Too bad the Trump Administration failed to take the lead on testing and had to punt to the private sector.

[Winehole23]

More anecdotes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fj537wyzLmoThe plural of anecdote isn't data. Looks like the French hydroxycloroquine study is a POS.

1242905803188822016

[picnroll]

https://i.imgur.com/KajIsdq.png

called it
That is a hell-of a R0

[Winehole23]

But wait, there's more:

1243108773809598466

[FkLA]

L Graham says the stimulus bill is so generous that nurses will quit their jobs to make more from UI, and Noot Gingrich agrees.

Don't you have to get laid off to receive unemployment?

You should also get blackballed if you abandon the public during a period of need. They took an oath. I'm not even sure any of that would be necessary though. There's nurses and doctors coming out of retirement all over the world to lend a hand during this pandemic. The large majority of them are good people.

[Winehole23]

That is a hell-of a R0At least people are getting tested. That's an improvement.

[ChumpDumper]

The plural of anecdote isn't data. Looks like the French hydroxycloroquine study is a POS.

1242905803188822016Wonder why Trump would trust him....

https://www.sott.net/image/s28/561889/full/032320_raoult.jpg

https://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2016_34/1686086/160826-trump-doctor-mbe_522p_4682d6e21de28872bf7e79a0041ee9f1.fit-760w.jpg

The world may never know....

[boutons_deux]

The CDC is an executive branch agency.

Too bad the Trump Administration failed to take the lead on testing and had to punt to the private sector.

CDC said it must do all testing for the entire country WTF, and its reagents were tainted so the test were useless.

[picnroll]

Trump didn't push fish cleaner on TV. Not did he push self medicating.

Trump is so dangerous the people pushing conspiracy theories for years have to take him off tv because "he's lying". Or maybe it's because his poll numbers are improving. Seems clear to me but you run with what you want.
Trumpshit isn’t doing press conferences, he’s doing campaign speeches. He gets a legimate question to clear something up and all he does is say “that’s a nasty question” or “
You’re a terrible reporter”. Fuck the d- bag. Let him and Fox news jerk each other off on air.

[ElNono]

https://i.imgur.com/KajIsdq.png

called it

lol rest of the world, we've taken the lead! fuck you China! Murica!

[Trainwreck2100]

lol rest of the world, we've taken the lead! fuck you China! Murica!

china prob. has double that shit though

[Winehole23]

From 500,000 to 20,000 projected deaths in the UK. That's quite the turnaround. Plus that number states that half of the 20k would've died within the year. That would put the US at 100k if we had the same rate. Sounds a lot better than 1-2 million.UK pandemic response policy turned on a dime. From zero social distancing to punitive lockdown.

Perhaps that might account for the difference. The original study, btw, estimated deaths as low as 20,000, presuming aggressive countermeasures.

[picnroll]

Inside the Story of How H-E-B Planned for the Pandemic
The grocer started communicating with Chinese counterparts in January and was running tabletop simulations a few weeks later. (But nothing prepared it for the rush on toilet paper.)

https://www.texasmonthly.com/food/heb-prepared-coronavirus-pandemic/

[midnightpulp]

Epidemiology study from researchers at Oxford:



The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.


https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

I tend to side with this study over the "omg 2 million dead" in the US projections. I just don't understand how California isn't getting absolutely hammered right now when they were host to the 2nd and 3rd cases in the country nearly two months ago? As I've said, it was business as usually for a month and half after. Everything packed as it usually is.

Studies have shown the median time until an infected patient shows symptoms is 3.0 days https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1

So let's assume it starts with a mild cough at day 3 and then ramps to severe (for those prone) over the next 5-7 days. If that is the case, why wasn't there a rush on Los Angeles hospitals in early March. From the arrival of patient zero on Jan. 27, definitely enough time for case rate to exponentially grow. What I think is happening is that an untold hundreds of thousands to millions of people have already had it and quietly recovered. We're starting to see the consequences of the virus moving around freely for months with these sudden explosions of cases, so yeah, expect some nasty peaks. The bright side of this, though, is that virus can't infect new people indefinitely until we reach some truly godawful number because so many people have already had it.

[Winehole23]

Btw, the UK has 1/6th the US population. 20,000 excess deaths in one year is a lot.

[MannyIsGod]

china prob. has double that shit though

We're lucky if we only have double our total.

[Winehole23]

100,000 excess deaths only sounds attractive next to one million excess deaths. In point of fact, 100,000 deaths would make it COVID-19 of the deadliest pandemics ever in the US.

[MannyIsGod]

Epidemiology study from researchers at Oxford:



https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

I tend to side with this study over the "omg 2 million dead" in the US projections. I just don't understand how California isn't getting absolutely hammered right now when they were host to the 2nd and 3rd cases in the country nearly two months ago? As I've said, it was business as usually for a month and half after. Everything packed as it usually is.

Studies have shown the median time until an infected patient shows symptoms is 3.0 days https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1

So let's assume it starts with a mild cough at day 3 and then ramps to severe (for those prone) over the next 5-7 days. If that is the case, why wasn't there a rush on Los Angeles hospitals in early March. From the arrival of patient zero on Jan. 27, definitely enough time for case rate to exponentially grow. What I think is happening is that an untold hundreds of thousands to millions of people have already had it and quietly recovered. We're starting to see the consequences of the virus moving around freely for months with these sudden explosions of cases, so yeah, expect some nasty peaks. The bright side of this, though, is that virus can't infect new people indefinitely until we reach some truly godawful number because so many people have already had it.

Man I don't know what you don't understand about the California response being really good early on. You keep talking about your local anecdotes, but Santa Clara did a lot of work early on that prevented it from getting like NY. Yet everyday you're like wow CA is low I don't get it. Also you're still focused on patient zero when I've already explained to you why it not nearly as important to look at a start date as opposed to a date when you reach critical mass for community spread.

I understand you want to be optimistic about things, but JFC dude.

[Winehole23]

Man I don't know what you don't understand about the California response being really good early on. You keep talking about your local anecdotes, but Santa Clara did a lot of work early on that prevented it from getting like NY. Yet everyday you're like wow CA is low I don't get it.
midnightpulp is wishcasting, so he overlooks facts that disagree and even makes stuff up to conform with his bias, like SoCal's "late response."

Santa Clara's emergency declaration was the first in the country.

[MannyIsGod]

Just FYI, Santa Clara county declared a health emergency on Feb 10. FEB 10!!!! That's a month before most places in the US took anything seriously. WA and CA were the first to react, and its clear to see from their curves this has paid off even though they had early cases. Places that have to react are just going to be fare extremely poorly.

[midnightpulp]

Man I don't know what you don't understand about the California response being really good early on. You keep talking about your local anecdotes, but Santa Clara did a lot of work early on that prevented it from getting like NY. Yet everyday you're like wow CA is low I don't get it.

Or maybe the Oxford study is actually correct? Everyone accepts the Imperial study because of the doomsday factor without question, because doomsday sells, but the Oxford study makes a lot of sense.



The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.


Northern California's response was good early. Southern California's wasn't. These are practically two different states. My local anecdotes are worth something here because I have many friends who work at the local Casinos (and we have like a half a dozen in a rather small region). They are always packed, and the patrons don't exactly practice great hygiene, sneezing on the machines, coughing everywhere, etc, etc. Perfect spreading environments. They all remained open until two weeks ago. So where was the "explosion" beforehand?

Note, I'm not being an "armchair epidemiologist" here. Citing a study from one of the most prestigious universities in the world that seems to make a lot of sense.

[MannyIsGod]

midnightpulp is wishcasting, so he overlooks facts that disagree and even makes stuff up to conform with his bias, like SoCal's "late response."

Santa Clara's emergency declaration was the first in the country.

Exactly. They reacted extremely well. And honestly I wouldn't be too happy about SoCal right now. They are still doubling in less than 4 days which isn't exactly amazing. But we can see that the early NoCal outbreak was stemmed quite a bit by early action.

THere's plenty to be optimistic about that because it shows taht actually taking proper and timely action has a real effect that can be seen in the data. Of course this also mens that not taking sufficient action means you are simply at the mercy of a virus that has none.

[Winehole23]

For the record, I hope midnightpulp is right. Sure hope COVID-19 doesn't spike again in the fall/winter, and I sure hope it turns out to be no worse than the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 -- which, excepting the Spanish flu, are among the worst recorded in the US.

During each of those years, about 100,000 people died of the flu.

[MannyIsGod]

Or maybe the Oxford study is actually correct? Everyone accepts the Imperial study because of the doomsday factor without question, because doomsday sells, but the Oxford study makes a lot of sense.



Northern California's response was good early. Southern California's wasn't. These are practically two different states. My local anecdotes are worth something here because I have many friends who work at the local Casinos (and we have like a half a dozen in a rather small region). They are always packed, and the patrons don't exactly practice great hygiene, sneezing on the machines, coughing everywhere, etc, etc. Perfect spreading environments. They all remained open until two weeks ago. So where was the "explosion" beforehand?

Note, I'm not being an "armchair epidemiologist" here. Citing a study from one of the most prestigious universities in the world that seems to make a lot of sense.


Your citing a study because it conforms to your world view and ignoring the rest of the literature. You're cherry picking. We don't get to go through and pick out what we want from the data as scientists and then say BUT LOOK THE INFORMATION BACKS ME UP! Ok, but what about the data that doesn't? Its about holistic context.

[midnightpulp]

midnightpulp is wishcasting, so he overlooks facts that disagree and even makes stuff up to conform with his bias, like SoCal's "late response."

Santa Clara's emergency declaration was the first in the country.

:lol. I'm doing no such thing. I cited another study that doesn't get press because it doesn't have the sexy doomsday factor. Yes, our response was late. SoCal casino's industry probably turns over the most people on a per week basis out of any industry in the state. Always jammed with 1500-3000 people coming and going. Buffets. Bars. Clubs exist in all these casinos. Lots of close contact. Local area casinos didn't completely shutdown until two weeks ago. I would call them letting operate until mid-March as the virus was locking down Northern California "a late response." Just because Newsom was the first to issue a stay-at-home order, doesn't mean all of California's response was ideal.

[Winehole23]

^^^strawmanning it up, must've struck a nerve

[hater]

it's an overblown cold. Most people will cough it out in 4 days

:lmao some posts are not aging well :lol

my bad ma nig Phx u a good poster

[MannyIsGod]

For the record, I hope midnightpulp is right. Sure hope COVID-19 doesn't spike again in the fall/winter, and I sure hope it turns out to be no worse than the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 -- which, excepting the Spanish flu, are among the worst recorded in the US.

I mean I hope that too, and I understand wanting it to be true, but considering the talk of reopening the country I am extremely annoyed at overly optimistic outlooks right now when the lionshare of the data says that we're in some deep shit right now.

I've asked this before, but once again: If there is actual reason for optimism, why are none of the epidemiologists echoing those sentiments? Its some law professor here, or some statistician there, but the actual experts in pandemics are all shitting themselves right now. And honestly, they have been for months.

There's no doubt that I see strong parallels with climate denialism here and that also annoys the hell out of me.

Just listen to the experts.

[hater]

:lol hayperboleter

:lol

[hater]

lol looking for studies in the interwebs that help your case :lol

[boutons_deux]

15 Chilling Photos of LA as a Ghost Town


https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74n8a/15-chilling-photos-of-la-as-a-ghost-town?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=curated_vice_daily_1023202 (https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74n8a/15-chilling-photos-of-la-as-a-ghost-town?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=curated_vice_daily_1023202)

[hater]

china prob. has double that shit though

maybe china leveled up tbqh

[MannyIsGod]

MP is right about one thing. I wish we could look at CA data seperated into the two main regions because SoCal is so much worse off than NoCal because of the way Santa Clara reacted. You can look at the county by county numbers and see that the LA region is now > 2/3rds of the cases in the state even though Santa Clara was the initial hotspot.

Its not exactly a good situation there.

[Winehole23]

MP is right about one thing. I wish we could look at CA data seperated into the two main regions because SoCal is so much worse off than NoCal because of the way Santa Clara reacted. You can look at the county by county numbers and see that the LA region is now > 2/3rds of the cases in the state even though Santa Clara was the initial hotspot.

Its not exactly a good situation there.The US (NYC is ~ half of all US cases) became the epicenter of the pandemic today.

That the rosy cheeked optimists ITT are wishcasting/mimimizing it as a historically bad extra flu season does not inspire much confidence.

Speaking of 100,000 extra deaths as if to becalm and console is straight up macabre.

[midnightpulp]

I mean I hope that too, and I understand wanting it to be true, but considering the talk of reopening the country I am extremely annoyed at overly optimistic outlooks right now when the lionshare of the data says that we're in some deep shit right now.

I've asked this before, but once again: If there is actual reason for optimism, why are none of the epidemiologists echoing those sentiments? Its some law professor here, or some statistician there, but the actual experts in pandemics are all shitting themselves right now. And honestly, they have been for months.

There's no doubt that I see strong parallels with climate denialism here and that also annoys the hell out of me.

Just listen to the experts.

Fauci just came out yesterday and felt is might be seasonal. Is he credible?

The University of Maryland's warm weather study (headed by a leading epidemiologist who cracked HIV) illustrates slower transmission in warmer weather (echoing Fauci, or rather, Fauci echoed those findings). Are they credible?

Back to the Oxford study that challenges the doomsday Imperial study. They feel Covid transmission will naturally slow as it runs out of new people to infect because we are massively, massively understating the amount of infections+recoveries that have happened? Are they credible?

While Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt might not exactly be an epidemiologist, I think he knows data. He feels we'll recover much sooner than anticipated. Credible?

Oh, and the scientist behind the Imperial College study that everyone takes as gospel just downgraded the estimated death count from 500K to 20K in about 24 hours (for the UK). The UK had the absolute worst response out of any Western country. He's appealing to the UK's recent lockdown efforts as the reason for the new projection, but how the hell can he project anything from something that has only been in effect for 24 hours? Does that make sense to you? So maybe, just maybe, many of these leading experts are more wrong than you think they are. Seems you're cherry picking your points-of-view because you conflate an optimistic outlook for the "Trumpian" outlook that has us beating this by Easter.

I've stated ad nauseum that a flu plus another flu (let's assume when all the data is in that Covid is about as severe as the flu) is a BIG issue and nothing to take lightly. I stated I expect there to be some nasty peaks. But what makes sense to me, per the Oxford study, is that I don't think there will be an indefinite extrapolation of new cases and deaths because who knows how many people have already had it, recovered, and won't get infected again. Why I don't buy the 3 million dead in year scenarios.

[Winehole23]

^^^re: The Imperial College study, MP ignores that the initial study had estimates as low as 20,000, presuming aggressive countermeasures.

He also ignores that the UK abruptly changed it's policy from do nothing to a strict lockdown like, last week

There seems to be some obliviousness here. 20,000 excess deaths in the UK is not a trivial number.

[boutons_deux]

Internal Emails Show How Chaos at the CDC Slowed the Early Response to Coronavirus

The CDC

fumbled its communication with public health officials and

underestimated the threat of the coronavirus even

as it gained a foothold in the United States

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/cdc-coronavirus-slow-response-trump?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tpm-news+%28TPMNews%29 (https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/cdc-coronavirus-slow-response-trump?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tpm-news+%28TPMNews%29)

[midnightpulp]

, or some statistician there,

This is a problem why? Data is data and you have little issue posting Nate Silver tweets.

[DarrinS]

Man, I'm going to have some long ass hair when this is all over. :lol

[midnightpulp]

^^^re: The Imperial College study, MP ignores that the initial study had estimates as low as 20,000, presuming aggressive countermeasures.

He also ignores that the UK abruptly changed it's policy from do nothing to a strict lockdown like, last week

There seems to be some obliviousness here. 20,000 excess deaths in the UK is not a trivial number.

They did not go into lockdown last week. 3 days ago.

But those countermeasures have to be applied at a specific time early in the outbreak, that's what all the epidemiologists are saying. Time is the most crucial resource here, and the UK pissed it away. Oh, but now they're suddenly "best case scenario" after having a terrible response and only getting strong 3 days ago? Do you think there's enough data yet from those 3 days to make any kind of accurate projections? The UK is raring toward an inflection point, so how the hell can Ferguson just flippantly decide they are now on the path to the best case scenario? As I asked Manny, does that make sense to you?

There's no obliviousness, but 20K is sure a lot better than 500K.

[Splits]

They did not go into lockdown last week. 3 days ago.

But those countermeasures have to be applied at a specific time early in the outbreak, that's what all the epidemiologists are saying. Time is the most crucial resource here, and the UK pissed it away. Oh, but now they're suddenly "best case scenario" after having a terrible response and only getting strong 3 days ago? Do you think there's enough data yet from those 3 days to make any kind of accurate projections? The UK is raring toward an inflection point, so how the hell can Ferguson just flippantly decide they are now on the path to the best case scenario? As I asked Manny, does that make sense to you?

There's no obliviousness, but 20K is sure a lot better than 500K.

1243294815200124928

[Winehole23]

They did not go into lockdown last week. 3 days ago.

But those countermeasures have to be applied at a specific time early in the outbreak, that's what all the epidemiologists are saying. Time is the most crucial resource here, and the UK pissed it away. Oh, but now they're suddenly "best case scenario" after having a terrible response and only getting strong 3 days ago? Do you think there's enough data yet from those 3 days to make any kind of accurate projections? The UK is raring toward an inflection point, so how the hell can Ferguson just flippantly decide they are now on the path to the best case scenario? As I asked Manny, does that make sense to you?

There's no obliviousness, but 20K is sure a lot better than 500K.You goofed.

It's ok. Happens to all of us.

[baseline bum]

Man, I'm going to have some long ass hair when this is all over. :lol

Ah fuck off, I been pelon for years and now you're going to rub that shit in my face too? :lol

[Will Hunting]

Man, I'm going to have some long ass hair when this is all over. :lol
Yeah I didn’t think that through...should have gotten mine cut before it really bad.

[Nathan89]

The US (NYC is ~ half of all US cases) became the epicenter of the pandemic today.

That the rosy cheeked optimists ITT are wishcasting/mimimizing it as a historically bad extra flu season does not inspire much confidence.

Speaking of 100,000 extra deaths as if to becalm and console is straight up macabre.

The 100k is based on the 20k in the Uk. That 20k was said to be made up of 10k people that would've died this year. I'd say that's a phenomenal outcome compared to 1-2+ million. It's not like we have a cure so our only strategy is to not overwhelm the hospitals and hope for the best. Well this one of the better possible outcomes.

[DarrinS]

Ah fuck off, I been pelon for years and now you're going to rub that shit in my face too? :lol

Sorry dude. :lol

Mine is completely gray, so it's not like I'll look like Jason Momoa. :lol

[Spurminator]

Yeah I didn’t think that through...should have gotten mine cut before it really bad.

I got a haircut the week before everything went down but I've set a personal record for not shaving.

[midnightpulp]

MP is right about one thing. I wish we could look at CA data seperated into the two main regions because SoCal is so much worse off than NoCal because of the way Santa Clara reacted. You can look at the county by county numbers and see that the LA region is now > 2/3rds of the cases in the state even though Santa Clara was the initial hotspot.

Its not exactly a good situation there.

Los Angeles County has a significant amount more people than Santa Clara County. 5x the population. I don't know how you can miss the per capita detail. Death per capita- LA County: .0021/1000, Santa Clara County: .010/1000. I know you're a smart guy, but I think you're looking for everything and anything to make the doomsday scenario more probable. LA County's situation is actually good here as their per capita death rate and case rate is very low. FWIW, Los Angeles's patient zeroes actually arrived only a day after Santa Clara's. And testing has grown exponentially:

https://imgur.com/a/QLCV6x3

[DarrinS]

Yeah I didn’t think that through...should have gotten mine cut before it really bad.

Among several things I wish I had done. I probably should have seen a dentist, too.

[slick'81]

Sorry dude. :lol

Mine is completely gray, so it's not like I'll look like Jason Momoa. :lol


Sam elliott can make it work,tbh

[DarrinS]

Los Angeles County has a significant amount more people than Santa Clara County. 5x the population. I don't know how you can miss the per capita detail. Death per capita- LA County: .0021/1000, Santa Clara County: .010/1000. I know you're a smart guy, but I think you're looking for everything and anything to make the doomsday scenario more probable. LA County's situation is actually good here as their per capita death rate and case rate is very low. FWIW, Los Angeles's patient zeroes actually arrived only a day after Santa Clara's. And testing has grown exponentially:

https://imgur.com/a/QLCV6x3



LA and surrounding counties doing pretty good, considering the population.

[Will Hunting]

I got a haircut the week before everything went down but I've set a personal record for not shaving.
:lol I shaved this morning because i couldn’t take the itching anymore, couldn’t remember the last time I let it get so long.

[midnightpulp]

You goofed.

It's ok. Happens to all of us.

Goofed how? How does the UK go from worst case to best case in matter of 3 fuckin days (now data lag doesn't seem to matter)? Instead of appealing to authority ("Because the smart guy said so!"), explain your reasoning? Seems the doomsday crowd has little problem countering expert opinion that doesn't toe the doomsday line.

[slick'81]

I got a haircut the week before everything went down but I've set a personal record for not shaving.


Luckily my sister n law came over and cut mine and the kids last week

[DarrinS]

Sam elliott can make it work,tbh

Man, I wish I had that voice.

[Spurminator]

:lol I shaved this morning because i couldn’t take the itching anymore, couldn’t remember the last time I let it get so long.

Bought my first can of beard cream today.

[DarrinS]

:lol I shaved this morning because i couldn’t take the itching anymore, couldn’t remember the last time I let it get so long.

I almost wonder if long facial hair gives virus more surface to cling to.

Fuck, I'm bout to go Clorox my beard. :lol

[DarrinS]

Luckily my sister n law came over and cut mine and the kids last week

My wife wants to cut mine. Disaster looms.

Maybe I'll just shave it all off.

[baseline bum]

You know, Quasimodo predicted all this

https://i.ibb.co/4dzhZJ5/quasimodopredictedallthis.jpg

[midnightpulp]

1243294815200124928

Yes, he concludes without those controls they UK would see 500K deaths.

What he's clearing up is that some people thought he revised it down to 20K out of the blue, but the qualifier people missed was that number might only be achievable IF the UK "locks down." As he explains here:

1243294819952230402

"Without those controls..."

[DarrinS]

Does anyone else find it slightly encouraging that only around 10% of the tested are positive? And this is with us ONLY testing highly suspect cases.

[midnightpulp]

Another expert with zero credibility:

1243303798967320583

I expect some "Trump forced her to say that!" handwave, but this woman also worked under Obama.

[Winehole23]

Does anyone else find it slightly encouraging that only around 10% of the tested are positive? And this is with us ONLY testing highly suspect cases.Looking at the logarithmic curve of cases in the US vs.countries that are going through hell right now, no.

What do you find encouraging about the rate of positives for COVID-19?

[hater]

Another expert with zero credibility:

1243303798967320583

I expect some "Trump forced her to say that!" handwave, but this woman also worked under Obama.

she looks pretty out of her league tbqh

like that crypt keeper kellyanne

but hope ahes right :tu

[Winehole23]

Another expert with zero credibility:

1243303798967320583

I expect some "Trump forced her to say that!" handwave, but this woman also worked under Obama.Some experts you question and scrutinize, but others, like Dr. Birx, ("Debbie," as DJT likes to call her) you accept unquestioningly.

Is that because she agrees with your take?

[Winehole23]

(MP very close to an argument from authority here.)

[DarrinS]

Looking at the logarithmic curve of cases in the US vs.countries that are going through hell right now, no.

What do you find encouraging about the rate of positives for COVID-19?


I wouldn't put much stock into our early counts. What your seeing is a combination of spread AND ramped up testing. It's nearly impossible to tease out just the spread from the cumulative positives.

I'm encouraged by the the 10% value because it's not 20,30, or 40%.

[DarrinS]

I warned people last week that they were going to be freaked out by the case count, when they would just be observing ramped up test results.

[DarrinS]

What's more concerning is the percent of asymptomatic carriers/spreaders.

[midnightpulp]

Looking at the logarithmic curve of cases in the US vs.countries that are going through hell right now, no.

What do you find encouraging about the rate of positives for COVID-19?

That it offers evidence of low transmissibility. Here's another expert with no credibility (as I know the only credible expert on the matter is Nial Ferguson) on the probability of contracting the virus in different settings:


Dr. Paul Auwaerter, the Clinical Director for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine says:

“If you have a COVID-19 patient in your household, your risk of developing the infection is about 10%….If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital]), your chance of infection is about 0.5%”

[Winehole23]

I wouldn't put much stock into our early counts. What your seeing is a combination of spread AND ramped up testing. It's nearly impossible to tease out just the spread from the cumulative positives.

I'm encouraged by the the 10% value because it's not 20,30, or 40%.Still not sure why this comforts you. Can you unpack your reasoning here?

[midnightpulp]

Some experts you question and scrutinize, but others, like Dr. Birx, ("Debbie," as DJT likes to call her) you accept unquestioningly.

Is that because she agrees with your take?

Isn't that what you're doing with your experts?

Why do you believe the Imperial study shouldn't be challenged? Two leading experts (one our country's own) and another from Oxford don't unquestionably accept it. Neither do I. I think there's a lot of strong logic in the Oxford study that you can cross correlate with studies from the likes of Iceland, and you start to see a picture.

[Winehole23]

That it offers evidence of low transmissibility. Here's another expert with no credibility (as I know the only credible expert on the matter is Nial Ferguson) on the probability of contracting the virus in different settings:You seem to be very invested in particular conclusions before the studies have been done.

Why is that?

[Blake]

That was a hopeful target.

Lol because Trump is your friend.

You Trumpers are such incredibly gullible sheep

[monosylab1k]

Some experts you question and scrutinize, but others, like Dr. Birx, ("Debbie," as DJT likes to call her) you accept unquestioningly.

Is that because she agrees with your take?

Is the Pope Catholic? :lol

[Will Hunting]

Does anyone else find it slightly encouraging that only around 10% of the tested are positive? And this is with us ONLY testing highly suspect cases.
Yes but I’m hoping for any sign of encouragement at this point. I’m hoping for any scenario where we can avoid a 3-6 month stretch of complete economic tumult even if it means Trump is re-electedz

[DarrinS]

Still not sure why this comforts you. Can you unpack your reasoning here?

I'd be more comforted if it were 1%. See where I'm going?

But the fact that they're only testing highly suspect and symptomatic people and only getting 10% positive means that 90% of people with cough, fever, etc. probably have common cold or flu.

[Winehole23]

I'd be more comforted if it were 1%. See where I'm going?

But the fact that they're only testing highly suspect and symptomatic people and only getting 10% positive means that 90% of people with cough, fever, etc. probably have common cold or flu.Even stipulating "lower" mortality and transmissibility, I find nothing comforting about what's happening in Milan and NYC, do you?

[DarrinS]

Yes but I’m hoping for any sign of encouragement at this point. I’m hoping for any scenario where we can avoid a 3-6 month stretch of complete economic tumult even if it means Trump is re-electedz

Same here.

[DarrinS]

I find nothing comforting about what's happening in Milan and NYC, do you?

It's a pandemic with a novel virus. Dense populations will get hammered, unfortunately.

[RandomGuy]

The "enemy of the people" are pissed about Trump's polling numbers.


Btw these things are getting massive ratings. His approval is going up though so the biased media has to try hide Trump like Biden. They are really showing their ass. Although they've been doing that for years now.

... [TV]ratings... approval [ratings]... "Big Bad Media" myth is the lie they use to keep you in the cult. Bad information is obviously made up. That is what cults do.

What you have here is simply a flaw in your thinking.


Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or strengthens one's prior personal beliefs or hypotheses.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply-entrenched beliefs.

Of course these things are getting massive ratings. It is a national emergency. Trumps idiocy is on full display, just like is priorities for the triad, and every other question where paying attention and knowing how do to the job is required. He never fails to fail.

[Blake]

Man, I'm going to have some long ass hair when this is all over. :lol

I'm already getting close to 2005 Manu hair length, just sub in dirty blonde Aryan color.

[midnightpulp]

Still not sure why this comforts you. Can you unpack your reasoning here?

Because if testing exponentially grows faster than case rate it'll skew the graph and make it look like there was a case explosion when there was really an explosion in testing.

Ex. If I test 10K people today and get 1K positive results and then test 100K tomorrow and get 5K positive results, plotting this on the graph would make it seem like there was a quintupling of cases. But there wasn't. If we scale it to the initial 10K test amount, the graph would actually look like this:

https://imgur.com/a/EupYT4u

The "true" case amount actually fell by half, even though the raw case amount quintupled.

[Winehole23]

It's a pandemic with a novel virus. Dense populations will get hammered, unfortunately.80% of the US population lives in urban areas.

[RandomGuy]

My wife wants to cut mine. Disaster looms.

Maybe I'll just shave it all off.

Clippers with multi-gards are cheap. Men's haircuts are pretty easy.

[midnightpulp]

You seem to be very invested in particular conclusions before the studies have been done.

Why is that?

So do you.

Why is that? Do you take the Imperial study as gospel. Yes or no?

[RandomGuy]

Trumpshit isn’t doing press conferences, he’s doing campaign speeches. He gets a legimate question to clear something up and all he does is say “that’s a nasty question” or “
You’re a terrible reporter”. Fuck the d- bag. Let him and Fox news jerk each other off on air.

Eyup. He doesn't answer questions with cogent answers, lies about everything, and clearly is in over his head.

[Winehole23]

Because if testing exponentially grows faster than case rate it'll skew the graph and make it look like there was a case explosion when there was really an explosion in testing.

Ex. If I test 10K people today and get 1K positive results and then test 100K tomorrow and get 5K positive results, plotting this on the graph would make it seem like there was a quintupling of cases. But there wasn't. If we scale it to the initial 10K test amount, the graph would actually look like this:

https://imgur.com/a/EupYT4u

The "true" case amount actually fell by half, even though the raw case amount quintupled.Not much of a consolation to Milan, Spain or NYC, sadly.

But I can see it makes you feel better, and that it makes you feel you have the correct surmise. Being correct before the studies are done is very important -- if you're vain or ideologically invested in particular outcomes.

Which is it here? Masking ideology or the always being right disease?

[ChumpDumper]

I'd be more comforted if it were 1%. See where I'm going?

But the fact that they're only testing highly suspect and symptomatic people and only getting 10% positive means that 90% of people with cough, fever, etc. probably have common cold or flu.I guess. Tests per capita number is still absolute dogshit except for a couple states and like you said only symptomatic people are getting tested which omits the utility of random tests. Full horror has not been reached basically anywhere yet and some pockets urban and rubelandia could be in for some real trouble. Time is really standing still waiting for useful numbers.

[DarrinS]

Clippers with multi-gards are cheap. Men's haircuts are pretty easy.

My wife would put it on one level and I'll end up looking like a chia pet. :lol

[boutons_deux]

evidence of low transmissibility. :lol

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/25/us/00VIRUS-LOUISIANA2/merlin_170728764_d6c4d94e-e8d4-4139-a8da-2ef9348eb9b5-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale

According to one study, Louisiana, with more than 2,300 cases as of Thursday afternoon, is experiencing the fastest growth in new cases in the world;

Gov. John Bel Edwards said on Tuesday that the current trajectory of case growth in Louisiana was similar to those in Spain and Italy.

The situation in and around New Orleans is particularly acute, with the city reporting 997 confirmed cases as of Thursday afternoon, more than the total number of cases in all but 13 states.

there is a rising suspicion among medical experts that the crisis may have been accelerated by Mardi Gras — the weekslong citywide celebration that unfolds in crowded living rooms, ballrooms and city streets

“I think it all boils down to Mardi Gras,”

“The greatest free party in the world was a perfect incubator at the perfect time.”

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/25/us/00VIRUS-LOUISIANA-mardigras/00VIRUS-LOUISIANA-mardigras-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale


But their array of unusual symptoms had troubled doctors.

“They just had a sense that something wasn’t right,” Dr. Avegno said. “It became clear pretty quickly that there was community spread, that

the cases were not directly linked to each other.”

As testing ramped up, the number of cases in Louisiana surged.

The growth rate of new infections in Louisiana was the fastest in the world when comparing areas during the two weeks that followed their first confirmed diagnosis

Governor Edwards said that

projected hospitalizations would exceed the state’s capacity by April 4,

and that the state had begun contracting to “build out hotels” to provide additional hospital beds.

Three state parks have also been outfitted with trailers to house more than 300 patients.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/coronavirus-louisiana-new-orleans.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/coronavirus-louisiana-new-orleans.html)

evidence of low transmissibility. :lol

[DarrinS]

I'm already getting close to 2005 Manu hair length, just sub in dirty blonde Aryan color.

Prime Manu was the best Manu. :tu

[Winehole23]

So do you.

Why is that? Do you take the Imperial study as gospel. Yes or no?
Nope. I'm not convinced by what anyone surmises.

It's too soon to say. Not enough info yet.

You haven't conceded once that the outcomes might not.conform to your surmises. You seem very stuck on your own assumptions based on very spotty and very undeveloped evidence regarding a pandemic that isn't over and a novel virus we don't know a lot about. And stubbornly refusing to admit you could be wrong about COVID-19.

Which is ok. We all have our intellectual weaknesses.

[midnightpulp]

:lol Boutons. 1.7 million people go to Mardi Gras.

"The coronavirus is magical, tho."

[boutons_deux]

Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner is now in charge of the effort to manufacture ventilators


https://www.rawstory.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Jared-Kushner-jersey.jpg

has taken it upon himself :lol

to lead the federal government’s efforts to manufacture new ventilators after months of inaction

Trump administration’s own projection in a simulation last year that millions of people could be hospitalized,”

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/trump-son-in-law-jared-kushner-is-now-in-charge-of-the-effort-to-manufacture-ventilators-report/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheRawStory+%28The+Raw+Story% 29 (https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/trump-son-in-law-jared-kushner-is-now-in-charge-of-the-effort-to-manufacture-ventilators-report/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheRawStory+%28The+Raw+Story% 29)

[DarrinS]

I guess. Tests per capita number is still absolute dogshit except for a couple states and like you said only symptomatic people are getting tested which omits the utility of random tests. Full horror has not been reached basically anywhere yet and some pockets urban and rubelandia could be in for some real trouble. Time is really standing still waiting for useful numbers.


We probably won't be able to make much sense of the data until there's large scale randomized testing, including antibody tests.

[Blake]

Kushner reminds me of littlefinger from Game of Thrones

[midnightpulp]

Not much of a consolation to Milan, Spain or NYC, sadly.

But I can see it makes you feel better, and that it makes you feel you have the correct surmise. Being correct before the studies are done is very important -- if you're vain or ideologically invested in particular outcomes.

Which is it here? Masking ideology or the always being right disease?

Holy fuckin' shit you're being dense. There's no "always being right disease" or "ideologically motivated thing." It's simple math. If you test ten times the people tomorrow as today, but the percentage of positive tests decline by half despite the raw number going up, that would represent an exponential decline, and would be something all of us should applaud.

What's Milan and New York have to do with you not understand simple math?

Darrin's point is that appealing to raw case count day after day doesn't give a complete picture of growth/decline because we have no idea how many tests are being performed. Can you grasp this fuckin' fact or not?

[DarrinS]

Kushner reminds me of littlefinger from Game of Thrones


Lol, I could never watch him in that and not think of him in The Wire.

[ChumpDumper]

Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner is now in charge of the effort to manufacture ventilators


https://www.rawstory.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Jared-Kushner-jersey.jpg

has taken it upon himself :lol

to lead the federal government’s efforts to manufacture new ventilators after months of inaction

Trump administration’s own projection in a simulation last year that millions of people could be hospitalized,”

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/trump-son-in-law-jared-kushner-is-now-in-charge-of-the-effort-to-manufacture-ventilators-report/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheRawStory+%28The+Raw+Story% 29 (https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/trump-son-in-law-jared-kushner-is-now-in-charge-of-the-effort-to-manufacture-ventilators-report/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheRawStory+%28The+Raw+Story% 29)

:lol Jared calls shotgun after Ford showed everyone how easy it would be for them to make ventilators.

[DarrinS]

80% of the US population lives in urban areas.


Some of those urban areas are VERY spread out.

[SpursforSix]

Clippers with multi-gards are cheap. Men's haircuts are pretty easy.

I’m actually looking forward to it now that I have a good reason to try. It literally takes less than 10 minutes when I go get it done. She barely even uses the scissors. $20 for 10 minutes.

[boutons_deux]

:lol Boutons. 1.7 million people go to Mardi Gras.

"The coronavirus is magical, tho."

in your magical wishfulness, you have no idea of how many infected people at MG infected how many people, many of whom were out-of-towners

why would American covid-19 be low transmissible when EVIDENCE from several other countries shows it has HIGH transmissibility?

[TeyshaBlue]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.

[boutons_deux]

Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-forecast/coronavirus-could-kill-81000-in-u-s-subside-in-june-washington-university-analysis-idUSKBN21E00Z?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F +US+%2F+Top+News%29

[Winehole23]

Holy fuckin' shit you're being dense. There's no "always being right disease" or "ideologically motivated thing." It's simple math. If you test ten times the people tomorrow as today, but the percentage of positive tests decline by half despite the raw number going up, that would represent an exponential decline, and would be something all of us should applaud.

What's Milan and New York have to do with you not understand simple math?

Darrin's point is that appealing to raw case count day after day doesn't give a complete picture of growth/decline because we have no idea how many tests are being performed. Can you grasp this fuckin' fact or not?

Quibbling about true rates of mortality and transmissibility in the context of the global suffering caused by the pandemic is akin to arguing how many angels can stand on the head of a pin.

You may think your hypotheses are predictive and indeed, they might turn out to be.

None of that changes the fact that COVID-19 has already caused a steep economic contraction and gruesome pestilence.

I think you're the one who's being dense here. It's weird to think math tells you everything you need to know. It's also weird to give the impression that the whole universe of mathematical evidence backs you up.

[DarrinS]

Are you guys trying to support local restaurants with take out?

Or, paranoid about it?

[TeyshaBlue]

We're doing almost all takeout now.

[Winehole23]

Are you guys trying to support local restaurants with take out?

Or, paranoid about it?
A little of both. They are my customers.

[slick'81]

Are you guys trying to support local restaurants with take out?

Or, paranoid about it?


I got some wing stop! Guess ill have to wait two weeks to see if i die,tbh

[DarrinS]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.


Damn. Sorry to hear that.

[hater]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.

best wishes ma niga

[hater]

Are you guys trying to support local restaurants with take out?

Or, paranoid about it?

I did pizza tbqh. yeah thinking of doing more

I use gloves to unbox it and drop it on my dishes :lol

then burn the boxes/bags in my incinerator

[Blake]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.

Sorry to hear

[midnightpulp]

Nope. I'm not convinced by what anyone surmises.

It's too soon to say. Not enough info yet.

You haven't conceded once that the outcomes might not.conform to your surmises. You seem very stuck on your own assumptions based on very spotty and very undeveloped evidence regarding a pandemic that isn't over and a novel virus we don't know a lot about. And stubbornly refusing to admit you could be wrong about COVID-19.

Which is ok. We all have our intellectual weaknesses.

So are the other experts also stubbornly refusing to admit they're wrong when they challenge the prevailing theory? I believe the counterarguments to the Imperial study because they make more sense to me. And yes, I have no choice but to believe because I'm not an expert, but they are, and I find their arguments more convincing.

What do you believe that I believe about Covid-19? Do you think I'm dismissing it as a cold? No. My feeling is it's as dangerous as the flu. "Oh, here we go, comparing it to the innocuous flu again to downplay it." Hell no. The flu is a killer.


The fatality rates with those with underlying conditions who get the seasonal flu.

Pneumonia and influenza: 1.53% — 1.93%
Chronic lower respiratory disease: 1.48% — 1.93%
All respiratory causes: 3.04% — 4.14%
Heart disease: 3.21% — 4.4%
Cancer: 0.68% — 1.05%
Diabetes: 0.26% — 0.39%
For all underlying conditions: 10.17% — 13.67%.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3516362/

Covid's fatality rate tracks with that pretty closely and yes that is a huge problem.

Here's what I don't buy. 60 million infected and 3 million dead over whatever time frame they said (12 months, I think), extrapolating from the Imperial study.

Our worst flu season in recent memory was 80 thousand deaths in 2017. If this thing bites us even half as hard, yes a problem.

[ChumpDumper]

Are you guys trying to support local restaurants with take out?

Or, paranoid about it?Looked at social media for a few to see if they're at least obviously gloving up. Subways' hygiene regimen was always pretty decent and can't see their ever running out of gloves; can only think of a couple local places where that's second nature.

[Winehole23]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.Best wishes for a speedy recovery. Sucks.

[TeyshaBlue]

Damn. Sorry to hear that.
He's currently in the "Corona" wing so if he doesn't have it yet....
Nobody in or out...period.

[DarrinS]

Are you guys trying to support local restaurants with take out?

Or, paranoid about it?


We're doing almost all takeout now.


A little of both. They are my customers.


I got some wing stop! Guess ill have to wait two weeks to see if i die,tbh


I did pizza tbqh. yeah thinking of doing more

I use gloves to unbox it and drop it on my dishes :lol

then burn the boxes/bags in my incinerator



I've been doing take out about every other night. Add some microwave time just for good measure. :lol

[ChumpDumper]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.Crap. Sorry that's happening.

[DarrinS]

He's currently in the "Corona" wing so if he doesn't have it yet....
Nobody in or out...period.

I guess no visitors either?

[Reck]

Geez, I go to sleep for a few hours and we overtake China in a blink of an eye. That was faster than I was expecting.

I thought maybe in a week or so we'd be ahead of them but by midday. Yikes.

[Blake]

Are you guys trying to support local restaurants with take out?

Or, paranoid about it?

I've gotten takeout from Longhorn Steakhouse and Olive Garden. I know people dog them for being chain restaurants but I love the ribeye, chicken fried chicken from LS and chicken parm from OG.
OG has a very good takeout service.

Jason's Deli is cool too. Don't even have to get out of the car when you pull up and they let me buy a dozen eggs.

I'm also finding out which frozen pizzas are best. Red Baron is solid, digiornos is shit, imo.

[TeyshaBlue]

I guess no visitors either?

Nope. Nobody is allowed in.

[Spurminator]

Takeout for every lunch, home cooked or leftovers for dinner. We live around a ton of great local restaurants and it would suck to see any of them go under.

[Winehole23]

Geez, I go to sleep for a few hours and we overtake China in a blink of an eye. That was faster than I was expecting.

I thought maybe in a week or so we'd be ahead of them but by midday. Yikes.Not to worry, board epidemiologists say mortality and transmissibility are low.

[Reck]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.

Damn, sorry to hear, man.

Is he on a ventilatior?

[Blake]

Geez, I go to sleep for a few hours and we overtake China in a blink of an eye. That was faster than I was expecting.

I thought maybe in a week or so we'd be ahead of them but by midday. Yikes.

And then Trump sends out letter to the governors just itching to get up and running asap.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/822049287/read-president-trumps-letter-to-governors-on-new-coronavirus-guidelines

[Fadi Fawaz]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.

It could be worse. My sister who has Aarskog-Scott Syndrome is on a ventilator and has a temp of 104.7.

I think I'll get Chinese; support the local economy and all.

[midnightpulp]

Quibbling about true rates of mortality and transmissibility in the context of the global suffering caused by the pandemic is akin to arguing how many angels can stand on the head of a pin.

You may think your hypotheses are predictive and indeed, they might turn out to be.

None of that changes the fact that COVID-19 has already caused a steep economic contraction and gruesome pestilence.

I think you're the one who's being dense here. It's weird to think math tells you everything you need to know. It's also weird to give the impression that the whole universe of mathematical evidence backs you up.

Damn, dude. You asked Darrin to unpack his math, and I unpacked it for you as well to add something to the conversion. Now you're coming at me for doing something you requested. It's you who are quibbling.

[TeyshaBlue]

Damn, sorry to hear, man.

Is he on a ventilatior?

Not yet but he only has one functioning lung so Im sure he's at least on oxygen.

[Spurtacular]

Damn, dude. You asked Darrin to unpack his math, and I unpacked it for you as well to add something to the conversion. Now you're coming at me for doing something you requested. It's you who are quibbling.

:lol QuibbleHole

[Reck]

Are you guys trying to support local restaurants with take out?

Or, paranoid about it?

Most have already closed.

The ones that remain open are the tiny ones who cant afford to close. Closing means going out of business forever for them.

I'm being a lazy fuck and ordering pizza. Done so the last 3 nights. The delivery guy is decked out in gloves and mask. Fucking weird to see. :lol

[slick'81]

I've gotten takeout from Longhorn Steakhouse and Olive Garden. I know people dog them for being chain restaurants but I love the ribeye, chicken fried chicken from LS and chicken parm from OG.
OG has a very good takeout service.

Jason's Deli is cool too. Don't even have to get out of the car when you pull up and they let me buy a dozen eggs.

I'm also finding out which frozen pizzas are best. Red Baron is solid, digiornos is shit, imo.


Digornos is fckn garbage! Shit taste like frozen piss......delivery taste my ass

[hater]

I've been doing take out about every other night. Add some microwave time just for good measure. :lol

good point Ill put my food thru 400 degrees for 5 more mins from now on

[Nathan89]

Man, I'm going to have some long ass hair when this is all over. :lol

Unfortunately, I was already due for a haircut well before and delayed like an idiot. Now I have to deal with this crap.

[clambake]

Nope. Nobody is allowed in.

is he still coherent?

[midnightpulp]

Not to worry, board epidemiologists say mortality and transmissibility are low.

No, it's the actual epidemiologists saying that. Would you like links?

And low is relative. It's low compared to Measles.

[DarrinS]

Nope. Nobody is allowed in.


People are going to shit on me for posting this, but he should ask his doctor for that hydrocloroquine and z-pak coctail.

[ChumpDumper]

And then Trump sends out letter to the governors just itching to get up and running asap.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/822049287/read-president-trumps-letter-to-governors-on-new-coronavirus-guidelinesHandy flowchart included



Is it Easter?
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Let 'er rip!

[Blake]

No, it's the actual epidemiologists saying that. Would you like links?

And low is relative. It's low compared to Measles.

If you're offering, I'd like to read a couple of the transmissibility links you're looking at. Thanks

[ChumpDumper]

People are going to shit on me for posting this, but he should ask his doctor for that hydrocloroquine and z-pak coctail.Well, they are taking it out of the mouths of lupus patients now so someone might as well use it.

[Reck]

good point Ill put my food thru 400 degrees for 5 more mins from now on

Hope you like toast.

[Winehole23]

Damn, dude. You asked Darrin to unpack his math, and I unpacked it for you as well to add something to the conversion. Now you're coming at me for doing something you requested. It's you who are quibbling.I had no doubt you could explain, I was wondering if DarrinS could, that's why I asked him and not you.

[MannyIsGod]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243331459978493953
Former head of cmms

[DarrinS]

People are going to shit on me for posting this, but he should ask his doctor for that hydrocloroquine and z-pak coctail.

Correction: Hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil)

[DarrinS]

Well, they are taking it out of the mouths of lupus patients now so someone might as well use it.

We need to crank out more

[Blake]

Handy flowchart included



Is it Easter?
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Let 'er rip!

:lol that's a beautiful flowchart. Just beautiful.

[MannyIsGod]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.
Hoping for the best man.

[Winehole23]

No, it's the actual epidemiologists saying that. Would you like links?

And low is relative. It's low compared to Measles.
Feel free to provide more links I don't doubt you have sources.

Would you characterize the epidemiology as broadly in agreement or settled on the questions of mortality and transmissibility?

If not, can you provide any examples contrary to your argument?

[picnroll]

Drawing conclusion from test positive data is going to be a mess. Testing criteria are a moving target. My sister, a doc in Fl, said criteria were and remain at state labs symptomatics over 65 and symptomatic healthcare workers but now she can send tests on any symptomatic patient to Labcorp or Quest. Soon they’ll be testing contacts. Positive numbers will explode but what will it mean.

[ChumpDumper]

We need to crank out moreWe need to not take it out of the mouths of people for whom we know it actually works.

[DarrinS]

Looked at social media for a few to see if they're at least obviously gloving up. Subways' hygiene regimen was always pretty decent and can't see their ever running out of gloves; can only think of a couple local places where that's second nature.


Subway seems a bit sketchy to me. All those plastic containers with meat, veg, that get opened constantly. I'm a hard pass on Subway.

[baseline bum]

Well shit, my brother just went into ICU with a fever 103.1. he is severely immunocompromised having continually battled Guillain-Barre syndrome for the last 10 years. His kidneys are gone and he's on dialysis so if this is Corona it might be a real problem for him.

God, that would be frightening under normal circumstances much less now. Strange new world we live in. I hope he can beat it.

[Winehole23]

Drawing conclusion from test positive data is going to be a mess. Testing criteria are a moving target. My sister, a doc in Fl, said criteria were and remain at state labs symptomatics over 65 and symptomatic healthcare workers but now she can send tests on any symptomatic patient to Labcorp or Quest. Soon they’ll be testing contacts. Positive numbers will explode but what will it mean.Ask midnightpulp, he's got it all figured out.