Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[Winehole23]

"There's responsibility for this fiasco throughout the political system"

what?
DarrinS mentioned Cuomo and Whitmer sending COVID-19 cases to nursing homes.

DeBlasio and Cuoma were terrible; the blood of thousands of NYers is on their hands for being slow off the mark.

[clambake]

DarrinS mentioned Cuomo and Whitmer sending COVID-19 cases to nursing homes.

DeBlasio and Cuoma were terrible; the blood of thousands of NYers is on their hands for being slow off the mark.

I agree. Imagine the possibilities if trump hadn’t have hid it for months, however

[Winehole23]

I agree. Imagine the possibilities if trump hadn’t have hid it for months, howeverTrump took a head in the sand approach, now he's bsing his way through and flooding the zone with shit, maybe because honestly that's Trump's mètier.

[DarrinS]

I agree. Imagine the possibilities if trump hadn’t have hid it for months, however

Hid what, exactly?

[baseline bum]

Trump took a head in the sand approach, now he's bsing his way through and flooding the zone with shit, maybe because honestly that's Trump's mètier.

No he didn't, he took a let's gaslight my followers approach.

[clambake]

Hid what, exactly?

He hid the existence of the virus for months, then stalled even longer.

Then he washed his hands of the whole thing, darrin

[baseline bum]

Hid what, exactly?

It's under control, Democratic hoax, 15 cases soon to be zero, a vaccine in two months, anyone who wants a test can get one, we'll have drive through testing at Walgreens, Walmart, and Target, etc.

[DarrinS]

He hid the existence of the virus for months, then stalled even longer.

Then he washed his hands of the whole thing, darrin



When was the genome published?

Can't make a PCR test without it.

So, I'm not sure what his "months of knowledge" (lol) would've given us.

[DarrinS]

It's under control, Democratic hoax, 15 cases soon to be zero, a vaccine in two months, anyone who wants a test can get one, we'll have drive through testing at Walgreens, Walmart, and Target, etc.

These are fair criticism, but clambake's assertion is just stupid.

[boutons_deux]

Trash began killing Federal govt's pandemic preparedness (which has been developed under Obama with Repug support) in fucking 2017, and continued right up to about Sep 2019, when he disbanded the team that ran pandemic simulations and ignored their report showing severe weaknesses in USA's pandemic preparedness.

CRIMINAL negligent manslaughter and CRIMINAL reckless endangerment. 100M+ dead, 100Ks damaged for months or for life.

Even if Trash had responded in Dec 2019, he could not have have undone 2 years of his wrecking pandemic preparedness.

[clambake]

When was the genome published?

Can't make a PCR test without it.

So, I'm not sure what his "months of knowledge" (lol) would've given us.
Our intelligence community alerted to this in November

He didn’t say or do anything other than try to bury it

[clambake]

It’s ok Darrin. We know what your orders are

[DarrinS]

Our intelligence community alerted to this in November

He didn’t say or do anything other than try to bury it


What details were known in November, dumbass?

Link your sources

[DarrinS]

From Jan. 14

1217043229427761152

[clambake]

What details were known in November, dumbass?

Link your sources

Dumbass? A little chippy, Darrin?

We need to declassify the report’s and original date of first notice. You think trump will be willing to do that?

[DarrinS]

Dumbass? A little chippy, Darrin?

We need to declassify the report’s and original date of first notice. You think trump will be willing to do that?


Link your "he knew in November" info

[clambake]

From Jan. 14

1217043229427761152

Chinese authority is not our intelligence community, Darrin. You do get that, right?

You found a celebrity to worship

[DarrinS]

Chinese authority is not our intelligence community, Darrin. You do get that, right?

You found a celebrity to worship


What 'actionable intelligence' was available in November?

If none, then STFU already about November.

Your claim is stupid.

[Winehole23]

No he didn't, he took a let's gaslight my followers approach.
Accurate

[clambake]

What 'actionable intelligence' was available in November?

If none, then STFU already about November.

Your claim is stupid.
I don’t stfu for members of the people’s temple, Darrin

Declassify the alerts. No harm in that, right?

[ChumpDumper]

From Jan. 14

1217043229427761152And they had evidence of human to human transmission on Jan. 22.

What did Trump do then?

On Jan. 30 they said the virus was worldwide.

What did Trump do then?

Kinda stop travel from China?

[clambake]

Darrin thinks our intelligence community is the Chinese authorities, lol

You are a very obedient cult member of a celebrity cult leader.

[ChumpDumper]

Darrin thinks our intelligence community is the Chinese authorities, lol

You are a very obedient cult member of a celebrity cult leader.Darrin trusted the Chicoms because Trump trusted the Chicoms.

He and Xi are in love or something.

[DarrinS]

When was the genome published?

Can't make a PCR test without it.

So, I'm not sure what his "months of knowledge" (lol) would've given us.


Jan. 10, 2020

http://virological.org/t/novel-2019-coronavirus-genome/319


Highly doubtful our intelligence community had this info in November.

[clambake]

Jan. 10, 2020

http://virological.org/t/novel-2019-coronavirus-genome/319


Highly doubtful our intelligence community had this info in November.

That’s very obedient of you, Darrin. Let’s declassify the intel...hav a little looksee

[Spurminator]

Hid what, exactly?

How can you seriously be this dense?

[boutons_deux]

shitbag Repugs in shithole FL lying to get people back to work and spending

‘Significant’ increase in Florida pneumonia deaths are likely COVID-19 related: CDC officials

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/significant-increase-in-florida-pneumonia-deaths-are-likely-covid-19-related-cdc-officials/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=4675&recip_id=298460&list_id=1

I'm surprised CDC said anything. Trash will probably fire them.

[Winehole23]

How can you seriously be this dense?Darrin is highly indoctrinated and posts from the right wing filter bubble, hard to see how he could possibly avoid it.


It's a hell of a thing to be misinformed and incurious at the same time..

[DarrinS]

I guess if you can't prove what POTUS knew and hid since November, you can just start posting lame insults.

[clambake]

Dense and obedient Darrin is very obedient.

[DarrinS]

Dense and obedient Darrin is very obedient.


I guess if you can't prove what POTUS knew and hid since November, you can just start posting lame insults.

[TSA]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1267168597031428096

[clambake]

Obedient Darrin doesn’t want an investigation. His obedience makes him an excellent cult member.

[ChumpDumper]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1267168597031428096I hope the gamble pays off.

[ducks]

"WE LITERALLY STAYED IN OUR HOUSES FOR A MONTH BECAUSE OF FEAR OF A VIRUS WITH A 99.74% SURVIVAL RATE AND NOW ARE SUPPOSED TO IGNORE NATIONAL COP-KILLING RIOTS?!!" Kentucky State political science professor Wilfred Reilly tweeted. "SERIOUS question, as re these riots - where are all these Governors that gave daily three hour press conferences about whether you could walk down the beach or visit your dying relatives? Is the COVID-19 crisis over?"

[Dirks_Finale]

Dr. V, a surgeon and well known youtuber says the virus actually has a 20% death rate in France and maybe 15% in some other Euro countries. I think he is not taking into account all the asymptomatic folks, of which there are a ton of. That said, it's still pretty damn high over there.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCI1RgFWhZI

[DarrinS]

Dr. V, a surgeon and well known youtuber says the virus actually has a 20% death rate in France and maybe 15% in some other Euro countries. I think he is not taking into account all the asymptomatic folks, of which there are a ton of. That said, it's still pretty damn high over there.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCI1RgFWhZI


Best comment on that video:

"Perfect showcase that being a surgeon doesn't make you a statistician!"

[tholdren]

You're upset because I asked you for a trend line and that scared you right out of talking about the subject anymore. You lost. lol you

Now try changing the subject again.

Lol this is why you don't understand data. You can't even figure a trend line.

[ChumpDumper]

Lol this is why you don't understand data. You can't even figure a trend line.I specifically asked you for one because I figured you would fold and try to change the subject and lose.

All that happened. lol

[boutons_deux]

Purged watchdog who found 'severe' medical supply shortages persists with 14 ongoing investigations (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/27/1947989/-Purged-watchdog-who-found-severe-medical-supply-shortages-persists-with-14-ongoing-investigations)

Christi Grimm, HHS’s principal deputy inspector general, became part of Trump's (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/16/1945501/-Trump-s-adds-another-notch-in-his-purge-of-inspectors-general-axed-for-doing-their-jobs) ongoing inspector general purge (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/7/1935218/--Independent-watchdog-Trump-launches-government-wide-attack-on-two-words-he-fears-most)

after she filed an extensive report (https://oig.hhs.gov/oei/reports/oei-06-20-00300.asp?utm_source=web&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=covid-19-hospital-survey-04-06-2020) in early April documenting "severe shortages" in medical supplies for hospitals battling the pandemic.

But on Tuesday, Grimm told the House Oversight Committee (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/top-hhs-watchdog-being-replaced-by-trump-says-inspectors-general-must-work-free-from-political-intrusion/2020/05/26/5c83f41a-9f49-11ea-9590-1858a893bd59_story.html) that

her office was still digging into 14 inquiries related to the Health Department's pandemic response.

“Personally and professionally, I cannot let the idea of providing unpopular information drive decision-making in the work we do,” Grimm told House lawmakers during the remote hearing

“We are operating as we did on May 1,” Grimm said of the date Trump announced a replacement for her.

“We are plowing ahead.”

Trump's head must be exploding.

dailykos.com/stories/1947989

[pgardn]

Best comment on that video:

"Perfect showcase that being a surgeon doesn't make you a statistician!"

This is almost like a TSA or snakeboy tuber.

[DarrinS]

If those models turn out to be correct,

CA: 325 deaths per M
TX: 67 deaths per M


The lockdowns in CA were early and strict.


Let's see if there's a major adjustment to these models in a couple of weeks. Based on all the peaceful protests.

[Winehole23]

Let's see if there's a major adjustment to these models in a couple of weeks. Based on all the peaceful protests.Prediction?

[DarrinS]

Prediction?

No idea. On one hand, the protests were outdoors and most had masks. On the other hand, people were packed together and shouting. Wait and see.

[Winehole23]

No idea. On one hand, the protests were outdoors and most had masks. On the other hand, people were packed together and shouting. Wait and see.Do you plan to place 100% of the spike on protests, or will you have something left over for the politics driven reopening of the economy?

[DarrinS]

Do you plan to place 100% of the spike on protests, or will you have something left over for the politics driven reopening of the economy?

We only have data on partial reopening, which looks good so far.

We'll have data post-protests in a couple of weeks.

[tholdren]

I specifically asked you for one because I figured you would fold and try to change the subject and lose.

All that happened. lol

Lol you

[Winehole23]

We only have data on partial reopening, which looks good so far.

We'll have data post-protests in a couple of weeks.Even Texas hasn't fully reopened. A few weeks of measurement seems artificially short.

[vy65]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-31/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says%3fcontext=amp

Can anyone explain what this means? I’m not finding any sort of explanation online

[Winehole23]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-31/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says%3fcontext=amp

Can anyone explain what this means? I’m not finding any sort of explanation onlineHopefully, it means that the rate of mutation is making COVID-19 less dangerous to humans.

[DarrinS]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-31/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says%3fcontext=amp

Can anyone explain what this means? I’m not finding any sort of explanation online


Perhaps the deadlier strains quickly kill the most vulnerable, who can no longer spread it, and you're left with a less lethal strain? Honesty, I don't know, but if this is true, it's great news.

[boutons_deux]

Let's see if American scientists find the same mutations happening in USA

It certainly isn't happening in Brazil, where Trash's buddy Bolsonaro says 10Ks Brazil dead is just a hoax.

Trash is sending his buddy 2M doses of HCQ and 1000 ventilators.

Trash takes better care of his fascist buddies than he does of American health care people and C19 victims.

===============

Brazil now fourth-highest nation in Covid-19 deaths

The number of coronavirus fatalities in Brazil has risen by almost 1,000 in a day, making the country's overall death toll the world's fourth highest.

Its figure of 28,834 has now surpassed France, and only the US, the UK and Italy have recorded more deaths.

President Jair Bolsonaro has consistently played down the outbreak, although the country has the world's second-highest number of cases.

He has criticised state lockdowns for harming Brazil's economy and jobs.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52868854 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52868854)

[CosmicCowboy]

Let's see if American scientists find the same mutations happening in USA

It certainly isn't happening in Brazil, where Trash's buddy Bolsonaro says 10Ks Brazil dead is just a hoax.

Trash is sending his buddy 2M doses of HCQ and 1000 ventilators.

Trash takes better care of his fascist buddies than he does of American health care people and C19 victims.

So sick Brazilians dont deserve our help if we have it to give? Boo apparently thinks brown people dont count.

[Winehole23]

So sick Brazilians dont deserve our help if we have it to give? Boo apparently thinks brown people dont count.So much for America First.

[tholdren]

I specifically asked you for one because I figured you would fold and try to change the subject and lose.

All that happened. lol
Lol cdc death overages... lockdowns not necessary.

[ChumpDumper]

Lol cdc death overages... lockdowns not necessary.lol you lost over and over again

[tholdren]

lol you lost over and over again
Awww you sad that sweden isn't as bad as you thought? Or are you still trying to figure out how lagging data entry manipulates what is reported.

Lol you.need a basic math course

[ChumpDumper]

Awww you sad that sweden isn't as bad as you thought?It's as bad Sweden says it is.

Why is it worse than Denmark, Norway and Finland?

[tholdren]

It's as bad Sweden says it is.

Why is it worse than Denmark, Norway and Finland?
You must not be able to comprehend. What lower all cause fatality means.

[ChumpDumper]

You must not be able to comprehend. What lower all cause fatality means.You lose again.

[tholdren]

You lose again.

If coronavirus is such a problem why are there not excessive deaths?

[ChumpDumper]

If coronavirus is such a problem why are there not excessive deaths?Why is it worse than Denmark, Norway and Finland?

Use your science.

[tholdren]

Why is it worse than Denmark, Norway and Finland?

Use your science.

Why is California worse than North Dakota?

[ChumpDumper]

Why is California worse than North Dakota?:lol changing the subject again. You lost.

Why is Sweden's death count higher than Denmark, Norway and Finland even when adjusted for population?

[tholdren]

:lol changing the subject again. You lost.

Why is Sweden's death count higher than Denmark, Norway and Finland even when adjusted for population?
Why California and NY worse than all other states when adjusted?

[ChumpDumper]

Why California and NY worse than all other states when adjusted?:lol subjectchangebot running at full capacity.

Why is Sweden's death count higher than Denmark, Norway and Finland even when adjusted for population?

You're the scientist. Answer the question.

[CosmicCowboy]

Chump, you still hiding at home?

[ChumpDumper]

Chump, you still hiding at home?When did you think I was hiding at home?

Be specific.

[CosmicCowboy]

It was a yes or no.

Still hiding?

[ChumpDumper]

It was a yes or no.

Still hiding?False premise. I never was hiding.

When did you get the impression I was hiding?

[CosmicCowboy]

I guess that's a yes with the ducking and dodging.

It was a simple yes or no question.

[ChumpDumper]

I guess that's a yes with the ducking and dodging.

It was a simple yes or no question.Are you still beating your wife?

Yes or no.

[tholdren]

When did you think I was hiding at home?

Be specific.
When you said how dangerous all this was. You said every hospital would be overwhelmed. Really fell for it. Its ok. You are easily scared and fooled

[ChumpDumper]

When you said how dangerous all this was. You said every hospital would be overwhelmed. Really fell for it. Its ok. You are easily scared and fooledWhen did I say this?

Link or lose.

[tholdren]

When did I say this?

Link or lose.
You said this numerous times. Just like you said kansas flu. And literally everything you have "predicted" or "pretended" to know about the virus has been proven wrong. Which is why you are really playing into the riot stuff trying to be really cool saying racist things

[ChumpDumper]

You said this numerous times.Link or lose.

[tholdren]

Link or lose.
I've dragged u through the mud for weeks Its actually stunning how many wrongs you have been.

[ChumpDumper]

I've dragged u through the mud for weeks Its actually stunning how many wrongs you have been.No link.

You lose.

Again.:lol

[tholdren]

No link.

You lose.

Again.:lol

link or lose

[ChumpDumper]

link or loseYou lost.

[tholdren]

You lost.

not even once. Mr kansas needs more ships.... lol you thought that.

[DarrinS]

endless slap fights

fucks up the threads, tbh

[tholdren]

endless slap fights

fucks up the threads, tbh

100 percent why I'm here

[ChumpDumper]

not even oncedozens of times if not hundreds. You abandoned science every time I asked simple questions like this:

Why is Sweden's death count higher than Denmark, Norway and Finland even when adjusted for population?

[ChumpDumper]

endless slap fights

fucks up the threads, tbhYou ever think of your examples of how bad the Obama years were compared to now? Still waiting for your follow up.

[tholdren]

dozens of times if not hundreds. You abandoned science every time I asked simple questions like this:

Why is Sweden's death count higher than Denmark, Norway and Finland even when adjusted for population?

Never once. You said coronavirus was more deadly than the flu to everyone..... you even compared it to the spanish flu... you also thought lockdowns worked and blamed the president for creating the coronavirus. All wrong

[ChumpDumper]

Never onceSure you did. You just did like ten times in a row. I don't know why you hate science so much when it shits on you.

[DarrinS]

You ever think of your examples of how bad the Obama years were compared to now? Still waiting for your follow up.

Remember those nationwide tantrums thrown after Obama won? Twice?

Me neither.

[ChumpDumper]

Remember those nationwide tantrums thrown after Obama won? Twice?

Me neither.You're kind of throwing one now.

But it turns out those people were right.

Is that it?

I thought you had something good.

[Winehole23]

Remember those nationwide tantrums thrown after Obama won? Twice?

Me neither.BAD AMERICAN PEOPLE RUINED TRUMP'S BEAUTIFUL, PERFECT PRESIDENCY

[DarrinS]

BAD AMERICAN PEOPLE RUINED TRUMP'S BEAUTIFUL, PERFECT PRESIDENCY

Lol, all caps.

[Winehole23]

Lol, all caps.Making fun of you. Trump honestly earned the enmity of lots of people before he was ever sworn in.

I'll give him this, Trump didn't pretend not to be racist, or not a misogynist, or not an asshole.

[pgardn]

Possible good news for parents of younger children

https://apple.news/AR1vO90-1RYu-vYK2YgC5kA

[DarrinS]

Possible good news for parents of younger children

https://apple.news/AR1vO90-1RYu-vYK2YgC5kA

Great news.

[ducks]

New York City is going to lose more than $9 billion in tax revenue because of its coronavirus shutdowns, according to former New York Lt. Gov. Dick Ravitch.

"Nobody can predict at this point what the shortfall will be," Ravitch told "The Cats Roundtable" on 970 AM-N.Y., adding Mayor Bill de Blasio's staff has estimated $9 billion in lost tax revenue.

"I personally think that it will be more," Ravitch added to host John Catsimatidis.

The shutdowns ultimately hit the city and state in all ways possible and will extend and deepen as long as the shutdowns continue.

"We are in deep, deep trouble," Ravitch said. "The revenue loss that New York City and New York State will suffer because of the virus and the unemployment claims, and the fact that the restaurants are closed and the stores are closed.

"It's affecting sales-tax returns. It's going to affect property-tax returns. People who own property that are dependent on rents from stores and restaurants are hiring certiorari lawyers to get a reduction in their property tax liabilities. If the city gets a reduction in property taxes — clearly a reduction in sales taxes — and with as many people unemployed as there are, millions in New York, there will be a substantial reduction in income tax as well."

[Winehole23]

^^^Maybe the US government should help the states. They have balanced budget amendment, the USG does not.

[Winehole23]

What's the point of having a United States if the federal government takes care of itself and shafts the states.in a nationwide pandemic?

[DMC]

What's the point of having a United States if the federal government takes care of itself and shafts the states.in a nationwide pandemic?

Maybe the US needs to contract, like getting rid of a few franchises in the NBA. I think some states could be annexed by other, more successful states.

[Winehole23]

Maybe the US needs to contract, like getting rid of a few franchises in the NBA. I think some states could be annexed by other, more successful states.DMC now valorizing mass death as a social cleanser.

Be careful what you wish for, pandemics aren't as picky as you are.

[Winehole23]

C'mon, if we can't rely on national leadership for problems of a national scale, what is the Union for?

[Winehole23]

Novel coronavirus isn't a localized public threat.

[clambake]

Chump, you still hiding at home?

Hey buddy, can you remind me about the stock purchase you tried to transact a couple of weeks ago but wasn’t successful?

[DarrinS]

Novel coronavirus isn't a localized public threat.

Montana not like New York. Don't know WTF you're referring to.

[Winehole23]

Montana not like New York. Don't know WTF you're referring to.DMC harebrained scheme to have "successful" US states subsume others, as well as his tacit argument that there is no legit federal role in a pandemic that affects the whole country.

You'd have to have read through the conversation. I know that's really hard for you.

[DarrinS]

DMC harebrained scheme to have "successful" US states subsume others, as well as his tacit argument that there is no legit federal role in a pandemic that affects the whole country.

You'd have to have read through the conversation. I know that's really hard for you.

I don't care about your conversation with DMC.

The response to the pandemic should be at the state and local level as a matter of pragmatism.

[Winehole23]

I don't care about your conversation with DMC.

The response to the pandemic should be at the state and local level as a matter of pragmatism.Um, what pragmatism?


Viruses don't respect political borders and US states have balanced budget amendments. The USG doesn't. Shouldn't the federal government help the states in a pandemic?

If not, why not?

[DarrinS]

Um, what pragmatism?


Viruses don't respect political borders and US states have balanced budget amendments. The USG doesn't. Shouldn't the federal government help the states in a pandemic?

If not, why not?


Virus spreads differently in rural vs. urban environments, tard.

[Winehole23]

Virus spreads differently in rural vs. urban environments, tard.Not contested, but US states, given budgetary restraints, lack the resources to deal with historic pandemics without compromising other public services.

I guess that's just their tough luck in the so-called United States of America, huh?

[baseline bum]

I don't care about your conversation with DMC.

The response to the pandemic should be at the state and local level as a matter of pragmatism.

There is no local level response in GOP states. Abbott already stuck us with a one size fits all response in Texas. Cities can't enforce mask laws, laws on occupation percentage in restaurants / bars, all this talk about local control is a fucking load of shit when the state tells cities what the law is.

[DarrinS]

There is no local level response in GOP states. Abbott already stuck us with a one size fits all response in Texas. Cities can't enforce mask laws, laws on occupation percentage in restaurants / bars, all this talk about local control is a fucking load of shit when the state tells cities what the law is.

Texas is doing pretty good, all things considered.

[Winehole23]

Texas is doing pretty good, all things considered.Based on what?

[tholdren]

Based on what?

The whole nation has been trending down in percent of hospitalizations fatality and case for weeks regardless of states manipulation of data

[Winehole23]

The whole nation has been trending down in percent of hospitalizations fatality and case for weeks regardless of states manipulation of dataThose are your reasons. I asked for DarrinS's, thanks just the same.

[DarrinS]

Based on what?

Texas was never in bad shape to begin with. The data are showing downward trends in positivity rate, hospitalization rate, and deaths per day. Also, recovered cases about double active cases.

[DarrinS]

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/06/01/Eli-Lilly-begins-clinical-trial-for-COVID-19-antibody-treatment/3841591022095/

[Play Boban]

Word on the street is that the thousands of deaths in these protests are now being recorded as "COVID-19" deaths. Unreal.

[spurraider21]

:lmao "the streets"

[ElNono]

Surgeon general: 'You understand the anger'

“Based on the way the disease spreads, there is every reason to expect that we will see new clusters and potentially new outbreaks moving forward," Jerome Adams said.

There will likely be new rash of coronavirus cases following widespread protests this weekend over racism and the death of George Floyd — but people’s concerns need to be heard, Surgeon General Jerome Adams said in an interview.

“I remain concerned about the public health consequences both of individual and institutional racism [and] people out protesting in a way that is harmful to themselves and to their communities,” Adams said in a phone call.

He was leaving a White House meeting with governors to discuss the protests that have rippled across the country after video footage showed a white Minneapolis police officer pinning Floyd, an African American, by his neck. Floyd died in police custody minutes later, after telling the officer that he could not breathe.

“Based on the way the disease spreads, there is every reason to expect that we will see new clusters and potentially new outbreaks moving forward,” Adams said.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/01/surgeon-general-protests-coronavirus-294270

[boutons_deux]

Surgeon general: 'You understand the anger'

“Based on the way the disease spreads, there is every reason to expect that we will see new clusters and potentially new outbreaks moving forward," Jerome Adams said.

There will likely be new rash of coronavirus cases following widespread protests this weekend over racism and the death of George Floyd — but people’s concerns need to be heard, Surgeon General Jerome Adams said in an interview.

“I remain concerned about the public health consequences both of individual and institutional racism [and] people out protesting in a way that is harmful to themselves and to their communities,” Adams said in a phone call.

He was leaving a White House meeting with governors to discuss the protests that have rippled across the country after video footage showed a white Minneapolis police officer pinning Floyd, an African American, by his neck. Floyd died in police custody minutes later, after telling the officer that he could not breathe.

“Based on the way the disease spreads, there is every reason to expect that we will see new clusters and potentially new outbreaks moving forward,” Adams said.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/01/surgeon-general-protests-coronavirus-294270

SA's Santikos is giving away free movie tickets, one per day, to HS grads with school ID cards.

[DarrinS]

SA's Santikos is giving away free movie tickets, one per day, to HS grads with school ID cards.

Wtf does this have to do with Elnono's post? :lol

[ElNono]

Wtf does this have to do with Elnono's post? :lol

Nothing. boutons shitposting per par.

[tholdren]

Weren't the models predicting 3k deaths per day june 1? Ouch fail again.

[boutons_deux]

WHO and other experts say no evidence of coronavirus losing potency

there was no evidence to support an assertion by a high-profile Italian doctor that the coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic has been losing potency.

Professor Alberto Zangrillo ... state television that the new coronavirus “clinically no longer exists”.

Zangrillo’s comments were not supported by scientific evidence.

There is no data to show the new coronavirus is changing significantly, either in its form of transmission or in the severity of the disease it causes, they said.


“In terms of transmissibility, that has not changed,

in terms of severity, that has not changed,”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-transmission/who-and-other-experts-say-no-evidence-of-coronavirus-losing-potency-idUSKBN23832J?feedType=RSS&feedName=healthNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FhealthNews+%28Reute rs+Health+News%29

MX and BR will have 10Ks of deaths

[tholdren]

Weren't the models predicting 3k deaths per day june 1? Ouch fail again.

[tholdren]

TUESDAY, May 5, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- As many states began to reopen their economies on Monday, a new internal report from the Trump administration predicts that will come at a cost: There will be 200,000 new coronavirus cases and 3,000 deaths every day by the end of May.

[weebo]

TUESDAY, May 5, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- As many states began to reopen their economies on Monday, a new internal report from the Trump administration predicts that will come at a cost: There will be 200,000 new coronavirus cases and 3,000 deaths every day by the end of May.

Yea, no one is dying daily. It is fake news that America leads the world in cases and deaths that total more than 100,000 people. Just stop testing and start praying & it will all just go away.

[slick'81]

Yea, no one is dying daily. It is fake news that America leads the world in cases and deaths that total more than 100,000 people. Just stop testing and start praying & it will all just go away.

Didnt you hear? nobody cares about corona anymore:lol

[tholdren]

Yea, no one is dying daily. It is fake news that America leads the world in cases and deaths that total more than 100,000 people. Just stop testing and start praying & it will all just go away.
Already has. Flu season is over

[DarrinS]

Yea, no one is dying daily. It is fake news that America leads the world in cases and deaths that total more than 100,000 people. Just stop testing and start praying & it will all just go away.

You need to normalize for population size, to be fair.

[DMC]

TUESDAY, May 5, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- As many states began to reopen their economies on Monday, a new internal report from the Trump administration predicts that will come at a cost: There will be 200,000 new coronavirus cases and 3,000 deaths every day by the end of May.

Some here were saying there'd be 110MM cases by July or so and half those would be admitted so the hospitals would be overwhelmed.

[DMC]

You need to normalize for population size, to be fair.

They only do that with democrat run states. They don't do it when it doesn't serve their needs.

[ElNono]

Some here were saying there'd be 110MM cases by July or so and half those would be admitted so the hospitals would be overwhelmed.

It was much less than that, IIRC... I recall discussing the math with vy65. The math was if we had over 1M hospitalized at the same time, we would be officially overwhelmed.

[DMC]

DMC now valorizing mass death as a social cleanser.

Be careful what you wish for, pandemics aren't as picky as you are.

:lol mass deaths? So when a county annexes a region, those people are slaughtered?

You fucking idiot :lol

[DMC]

It was much less than that, IIRC... I recall discussing the math with vy65. The math was if we had over 1M hospitalized at the same time, we would be officially overwhelmed.



Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court, said he expects 70 million to 150 million people in the United States will become infected with COVID-19, NBC News reported Wednesday, citing two sources.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-t...ctor-says.html

Take the median (110MM cases) and, I'll be generous, say only half (55MM) seek emergency care. That's almost a 50% increase in the amount of visits in 3-9 months. Do you think the system can handle that?

[SnakeBoy]

So is the lock down over now?

Asking for a friend

[DarrinS]

So is the lock down over now?

Asking for a friend


For chaos and destruction, yes.

For business, only if your intention is to kill grandma.

[ElNono]

Dr. Brian Monahan

this guy?
https://www.republicanleader.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/mcconnell-pays-tribute-to-dr-brian-monahan-the-attending-physician-for-the-united-states-congress-

IIRC, the initial reports contemplated not doing anything. At any rate, what I was pointing out was some discussions we had here. I believe the stat was the US has 330,000 hospital bed capacity or something of the sort.

[ElNono]

So is the lock down over now?

Asking for a friend

It's been relaxed in a number of cities. Where's your friend at?

[Blake]

So is the lock down over now?

Asking for a friend

Don't you live in Texas?

[boutons_deux]

shithole Repug states continuing to spread

https://rt.live/

[RandomGuy]

It was much less than that, IIRC... I recall discussing the math with vy65. The math was if we had over 1M hospitalized at the same time, we would be officially overwhelmed.

900k beds, 600k normally already filled. Nationally. Regional capacity varies widely. Get a large percentage of that last 300k filled, and you have an overwhelmed system.

[RandomGuy]

Some here were saying there'd be 110MM cases by July or so and half those would be admitted so the hospitals would be overwhelmed.


Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court, said he expects 70 million to 150 million people in the United States will become infected with COVID-19, NBC News reported Wednesday, citing two sources.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-t...ctor-says.html

Take the median (110MM cases) and, I'll be generous, say only half (55MM) seek emergency care. That's almost a 50% increase in the amount of visits in 3-9 months. Do you think the system can handle that?

Emergency room visit =/= admitting to hospital

FWTW

[RandomGuy]

shithole Repug states continuing to spread

https://rt.live/

Looks like Georgia is leading the wave.

[baseline bum]

Some here were saying there'd be 110MM cases by July or so and half those would be admitted so the hospitals would be overwhelmed.

I couldn't believe watching the local news yesterday that 21% of Bexar County's ventilators are currently in use when there is almost no COVID in the area. How completely fucked is this county going to be once COVID actually does spike here?

[RandomGuy]

https://rt.live/

Seems like infection rates have ticked up in just about every location that has ended lockdowns.

That does not support the position that they do not work at all.

Again a testable hypothesis. We are in the laboratory and virus truthers want us to gamble with my son and fathers lives.

[DarrinS]

shithole Repug states continuing to spread

https://rt.live/


Lol, developed by former CEO of Instagram

[tholdren]

https://rt.live/

Seems like infection rates have ticked up in just about every location that has ended lockdowns.

That does not support the position that they do not work at all.

Again a testable hypothesis. We are in the laboratory and virus truthers want us to gamble with my son and fathers lives.

Increased testing. Trend has been down for weeks. Too sad for your limited math

[tholdren]

It was much less than that, IIRC... I recall discussing the math with vy65. The math was if we had over 1M hospitalized at the same time, we would be officially overwhelmed.

lol which is the problem. They didn't use appropriate modeling and then projected more ignorance off of flawed data. Sadly people still can't comprehend this.

Prediction was 3k dead per day and 200k cases. Predicted on the first week of May... sad

[DarrinS]

https://rt.live/

Seems like infection rates have ticked up in just about every location that has ended lockdowns.

That does not support the position that they do not work at all.

Again a testable hypothesis. We are in the laboratory and virus truthers want us to gamble with my son and fathers lives.


Not a peep about the nationwide protests

[SnakeBoy]

I couldn't believe watching the local news yesterday that 21% of Bexar County's ventilators are currently in use when there is almost no COVID in the area. How completely fucked is this county going to be once COVID actually does spike here?

We only have around a 100 ventilator's in the county

[tholdren]

Not a peep about the nationwide protests

the trend is down . He's not smart

[SnakeBoy]

Not a peep about the nationwide protests

Yeah but the protests don't compare to the right wingers who are doing crazy dangerous stuff like getting haircuts.

[tholdren]

The World Health Organization struggled to get needed information from China during critical early days of the coronavirus pandemic, according to recordings of internal meetings that contradict the organisation’s public praise of Beijing’s response to the outbreak.

The recordings, obtained by the Associated Press (AP), show officials complaining in meetings during the week of 6 January that Beijing was not sharing data needed to evaluate the risk of the virus to the rest of the world. It was not until 20 January that China confirmed coronavirus was contagious and 30 January that the WHO declared a global emergency.

[tholdren]

https://rt.live/

Seems like infection rates have ticked up in just about every location that has ended lockdowns.

That does not support the position that they do not work at all.

Again a testable hypothesis. We are in the laboratory and virus truthers want us to gamble with my son and fathers lives.

Wrong.

[Spurs Homer]

No idea. On one hand, the protests were outdoors and most had masks. On the other hand, people were packed together and shouting. Wait and see.



Serious question for you- hope you can address it:

How much is your nazi/Hitler paraphernalia collection worth?

Have you had it appraised?

Is it worth more- or less - than

DMC’s?

Qhris’s?

thanks!

[CosmicCowboy]

Slowing down in Bexar County even with increased testing. Only 9 new cases Monday.

[DarrinS]

No idea. On one hand, the protests were outdoors and most had masks. On the other hand, people were packed together and shouting. Wait and see.



Serious question for you- hope you can address it:

How much is your nazi/Hitler paraphernalia collection worth?

Have you had it appraised?

Is it worth more- or less - than

DMC’s?

Qhris’s?

thanks!


^ Seriously, WTF is wrong with this kid?

[RandomGuy]

Wrong.

A testable hypothesis is disproven by time and data.

Shouting at data doesn't make it go away.

What next, kid, covering up your ears and going "la la la la, I can't hear you" :lmao

[RandomGuy]

lol which is the problem. They didn't use appropriate modeling and then projected more ignorance off of flawed data. Sadly people still can't comprehend this.

Prediction was 3k dead per day and 200k cases. Predicted on the first week of May... sad

You keep saying that.

But you haven't actually shown that to be the case.

Do you always pull stuff out of your ass or just this once?

[RandomGuy]

Not a peep about the nationwide protests

They are spreading the virus a lot, and are probably a bad idea. Better?

[ElNono]

lol which is the problem. They didn't use appropriate modeling and then projected more ignorance off of flawed data. Sadly people still can't comprehend this.

Prediction was 3k dead per day and 200k cases. Predicted on the first week of May... sad

Models get updated all the time based on new data. That's how mathematical models work. When nobody was doing anything, models obviously showed one thing.

Once states/cities started to apply social distancing, lockdowns, etc, new data reflecting that reality came in and models were updated as such.

On top of that you always have a margin of error on statistical models. While now we're ~750 deaths/day it doesn't automatically mean 3k/day was a bad prediction, it could very well be within the margin of error (haven't looked).

Conversely, we had margins of error go the other way around in early May, where the prediction was lowballed to what it eventually ended up being.

[tholdren]

Models get updated all the time based on new data. That's how mathematical models work. When nobody was doing anything, models obviously showed one thing.

Once states/cities started to apply social distancing, lockdowns, etc, new data reflecting that reality came in and models were updated as such.

On top of that you always have a margin of error on statistical models. While now we're ~750 deaths/day it doesn't automatically mean 3k/day was a bad prediction, it could very well be within the margin of error (haven't looked).

Conversely, we had margins of error go the other way around in early May, where the prediction was lowballed to what it eventually ended up being.

Lol you telling people how modeling works when you have fallen for the models each time... just wait two weeks..... always wrong about this, but keep chiming in when convenient

[ElNono]

Lol you telling people how modeling works when you have fallen for the models each time... just wait two weeks..... always wrong about this, but keep chiming in when convenient

That makes no sense. How do you 'fall' for models, when they never make a claim to be exact?

[DMC]

That makes no sense. How do you 'fall' for models, when they never make a claim to be exact?

But wishcasting was being supported by cherry picked models. You cannot ignore that.

[DMC]

Emergency room visit =/= admitting to hospital

FWTW

Were there even 55M people who tested positive?

No

Were the emergency rooms overrun with COVID patients?

No

What's your point other than your typical Jethro Bodine ciphering exhibition?

[David Hogg]

^ Seriously, WTF is wrong with this kid?
Deflecting from answering his questions?

[David Hogg]

They are spreading the virus a lot, and are probably a bad idea. Better?
Too bad they weren’t crying about haircuts and the economy, then Darrin would be semenshielding relentlessly.

[RandomGuy]

Too bad they weren’t crying about haircuts and the economy, then Darrin would be semenshielding relentlessly.

Truth.

[RandomGuy]

Were there even 55M people who tested positive?

No

Were the emergency rooms overrun with COVID patients?

No

What's your point other than your typical Jethro Bodine ciphering exhibition?

smh

whatever floats your boat snowflake. No need to melt down over a mild correction.

[DarrinS]

Hopefully, being outdoors is a mitigating factor for the protesters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/opinion/coronavirus-superspreaders.html?auth=link-dismiss-google1tap

[tholdren]

smh

whatever floats your boat snowflake. No need to melt down over a mild correction.
Asinine assumptions to generate fear via modeling was the reason for lockdowns....

[ElNono]

But wishcasting was being supported by cherry picked models. You cannot ignore that.

Everybody picks a model based on expertise. Even the administration had to. There's simply no alternative, and uninformed decisions are demonstrably worse.

[boutons_deux]

Moderna's coronavirus vaccine announcement set off a frenzy on Wall Street.

Now some are calling for an investigation

As the hype grew, the young biotech company and its leading investor wasted no time capitalizing on the briefly surging stock price.

a series of transactions were executed (https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-pricing-public-offering-shares-common-stock-0) before its share price fizzled over the next week.

The timing of those deals, former SEC officials said, appear to be "highly problematic" and should be investigated for potential illegal market manipulation.

Two of Moderna's top executives also cashed in on the boom at their company,

which had suddenly amassed a $29 billion market value despite the fact it has no marketed products. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/us/coronavirus-moderna-vaccine-invs/index.html)

Moderna's chief financial officer (https://investors.modernatx.com/static-files/40bde0d4-67cd-49a1-ac31-186bdb638d33) and chief medical officer (https://investors.modernatx.com/static-files/03ba600f-801d-4609-a7fb-332ac507f76f)sold nearly $30 million of shares combined on May 18 and May 19.

Days later, Moderna's leading shareholder, venture capital firm Flagship Pioneering, sold 1 million shares (https://investors.modernatx.com/static-files/e00450e2-e9aa-4031-898a-a5bd27e144b6)on May 21 and 22 at an average price of $69.47,

The sales raked in $69.5 million for the venture capital firm.

Flagship Pioneering was founded by Noubar Afeyan, the co-founder and chairman of Moderna.

The VC firm owned nearly 51 million Moderna shares as of the end of March,

The timing of the transactions -- coupled with concerns from some medical experts that Moderna overstated the significance of its Phase 1 vaccine trial -- should be investigated by authorities,

the agency should "absolutely" be investigating the situation at Moderna.

"This isn't really insider trading as much as it's market manipulation,"

"It looks like you're hyping the stock so you can then go and sell it."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/business/moderna-vaccine-stock-sales-invs/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/business/moderna-vaccine-stock-sales-invs/index.html)

[hater]

Hopefully, being outdoors is a mitigating factor for the protesters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/opinion/coronavirus-superspreaders.html?auth=link-dismiss-google1tap

It is

i been saying outdoor activities are fine. I been hanging out with peeps outside for weeks tbqh

Indoors is a problem

[tholdren]

Everybody picks a model based on expertise. Even the administration had to. There's simply no alternative, and uninformed decisions are demonstrably worse.

ABSOLUTELY FALSE. STATS 101. Making a decision based on wrong data is worse than making one with no data

[hater]

New model says 200k dead by Labor day tbqh

That sounds reasonable?

https://twitter.com/clhvelo/status/1267584259235119107?s=19

And with the fall/winter wave. I could see half a million bodybags. Note that i had called exactly that months ago

[tholdren]

New model says 200k dead by Labor day tbqh

That sounds reasonable?

https://twitter.com/clhvelo/status/1267584259235119107?s=19

And with the fall/winter wave. I could see half a million bodybags. Note that i had called exactly that months ago
No

[DarrinS]

It would be a shame to see another huge outbreak in NYC.

[DMC]

smh

whatever floats your boat snowflake. No need to melt down over a mild correction.

110M million to 1.8M.

If you were worried about 1.8M infections, how would 110M have made you feel?

It's always good to scare the shit out of people who don't have any common fucking sense.

[DMC]

It would be a shame to see another huge outbreak in NYC.

Thoughts and prayers

[DMC]

Everybody picks a model based on expertise. Even the administration had to. There's simply no alternative, and uninformed decisions are demonstrably worse.

That's simply not true. Plenty pick the model that best supports their narratives. So if you think the infections will be 110M, and they are 100x fewer, what good is a model? Couldn't you just ask a 3rd grader to think of the biggest number they could and go with that and probably be more accurate?

[hater]

It would be a shame to see another huge outbreak in NYC.

Or at the next trump rally tbqh

[ElNono]

ABSOLUTELY FALSE. STATS 101. Making a decision based on wrong data is worse than making one with no data

Nobody made a claim the data was wrong. That's you premise.

[ElNono]

That's simply not true. Plenty pick the model that best supports their narratives. So if you think the infections will be 110M, and they are 100x fewer, what good is a model? Couldn't you just ask a 3rd grader to think of the biggest number they could and go with that and probably be more accurate?

Of course it's true. We're arguing from the point of parties being interested in mitigating the problem, not people trying to advance narratives. You don't need a model for lying, you can just make up any number.

Your complain made sense if you disputed it when it came about, not months later. Under what conditions was that 110M estimate reached? Let's see the parameters and the data when that model was put together, then we can discuss margins of error or sampling errors.

What model do you have a beef with right now? Pick a model right now, and call it bullshit like you're calling the 110M right now with the current data set, then we can evaluate.

[DMC]

Of course it's true. We're arguing from the point of parties being interested in mitigating the problem, not people trying to advance narratives. You don't need a model for lying, you can just make up any number.

Your complain made sense if you disputed it when it came about, not months later. Under what conditions was that 110M estimate reached? Let's see the parameters and the data when that model was put together, then we can discuss margins of error or sampling errors.

What model do you have a beef with right now? Pick a model right now, and call it bullshit like you're calling the 110M right now with the current data set, then we can evaluate.

Everyone is trying to advance a narrative, both sides. You don't need to make anything up. You just pick the model with the numbers you need. If you want to scare people, you say 100million. Then when it's 1.8 million you look like a hero. If you want to calm people, you show the cherry picked model that supports your narrative. The left wants to show Trump has killed every human on the planet and the right wants to show Trump rode in on a white horse (with a black name, let's be fair) and saved the world from the evil Chinese.

I don't have a beef with any model. People calling for concrete actions based on faulty modeling and insisting the models are correct, those I have a problem with. When you're right - blame it on Trump. When you're wrong - blame it on the modeling. When is it ever just you? (rhetorically speaking)

Models that are wrong by a factor of 100x are useless, and even more they are likely dangerous.

(anecdote) - I used to do business with some South American countries. Each quarter they'd have to project their earnings and each quarter they'd blow away their projections by as much as 200%. Now that seems great, they are out performing, but what's really happening is they are sand bagging the predictions to beat them easily, to both remain employed and to raise their own stock prices. Their predictions were more than worthless, they were costly. I didn't have an issue with the models. I had an issue with the people making decisions based on what was obviously highly questionable predictions, because it benefited them personally to accept them.

[DarrinS]

Chanting "I can't breathe" may literally turn into their last words


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBWj8oiFj44

[ElNono]

Everyone is trying to advance a narrative, both sides. You don't need to make anything up. You just pick the model with the numbers you need. If you want to scare people, you say 100million. Then when it's 1.8 million you look like a hero. If you want to calm people, you show the cherry picked model that supports your narrative. The left wants to show Trump has killed every human on the planet and the right wants to show Trump rode in on a white horse (with a black name, let's be fair) and saved the world from the evil Chinese.

I don't have a beef with any model. People calling for concrete actions based on faulty modeling and insisting the models are correct, those I have a problem with. When you're right - blame it on Trump. When you're wrong - blame it on the modeling. When is it ever just you? (rhetorically speaking)

Picking models for narratives is a double edged sword, and I think we can agree with that. It actually happened to Trump before he eventually had to recognize that 100k was well within the ballpark, and this was serious. That's why nobody uses models from twitter.

There are true and tested models for infectious diseases that have been used for years on Ebola, Flu, SARS, etc... and they're only as good as the data they're fed, AND all of them include a margin of error.
So if you were doing nothing, they will report 100M, if you tell it you've been doing social distancing, then it's going to come down a lot. It's not magical thinking, it's called mathematics. When you have a virus with an exponential growth profile, the numbers escalate pretty quickly, and what you do to mitigate that, or if you have a vaccine, or if you have a therapeutic treatment, or if the virus is affected by weather, etc they all influence the numbers over time.

It's incredibly easy to dispute statistical models in retrospect if you don't know how they were calculated to begin with. Thus my question on who has a beef with which model right now, because as soon as a couple of weeks have gone by, weather changes, these protest episodes happen, and then you have to feed that data in and get new numbers.
Was it wrong two weeks ago? No, it was within the parameters and information it had at the time. Does the concrete decisions made on those values 2 weeks ago were somehow incorrect because now the model looks different? No, they're not, they were informed decisions based on the information you had available at the time.

We also make decisions that we know will influence the model in positive ways, like social distancing, mask usage, etc, and then we wait for both reality and the model to reflect that.

[DarrinS]

Good work guys


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdBThkqLeQI

[DMC]

Picking models for narratives is a double edged sword, and I think we can agree with that. It actually happened to Trump before he eventually had to recognize that 100k was well within the ballpark, and this was serious. That's why nobody uses models from twitter.

There are true and tested models for infectious diseases that have been used for years on Ebola, Flu, SARS, etc... and they're only as good as the data they're fed, AND all of them include a margin of error.
So if you were doing nothing, they will report 100M, if you tell it you've been doing social distancing, then it's going to come down a lot. It's not magical thinking, it's called mathematics. When you have a virus with an exponential growth profile, the numbers escalate pretty quickly, and what you do to mitigate that, or if you have a vaccine, or if you have a therapeutic treatment, or if the virus is affected by weather, etc they all influence the numbers over time.

It's incredibly easy to dispute statistical models in retrospect if you don't know how they were calculated to begin with. Thus my question on who has a beef with which model right now, because as soon as a couple of weeks have gone by, weather changes, these protest episodes happen, and then you have to feed that data in and get new numbers.
Was it wrong two weeks ago? No, it was within the parameters and information it had at the time. Does the concrete decisions made on those values 2 weeks ago were somehow incorrect because now the model looks different? No, they're not, they were informed decisions based on the information you had available at the time.

We also make decisions that we know will influence the model in positive ways, like social distancing, mask usage, etc, and then we wait for both reality and the model to reflect that.
But wasn't Trump supposed to know and thwart it all before it took hold?

There's more than one model. That's my point. I can use the more extreme example or the most conservative estimate depending on what echo chamber I belong to.

[DMC]

Good work guys


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdBThkqLeQI

She's white, fucking Karen. Of course she'd say that. Forced herd immunity imo.

[ElNono]

But wasn't Trump supposed to know and thwart it all before it took hold?

There's more than one model. That's my point. I can use the more extreme example or the most conservative estimate depending on what echo chamber I belong to.

They're all in the same ballpark with the same data though. None of them are 15 down to zero.

And yes, what you did in the early phase of contagion also has an impact on the overall longevity, especially when contagion is exponential. If you let pockets spread freely early on, you're probably going to be battling with this longer.

I don't expect Nancy the hairdresser in Yuma, AZ to understand how models work, she'll probably get the initial estimate, and then complain two months later how the model hit or missed. But I know you know better.

I'm not even arguing that some outlets might A) weight the error rate towards more dramatic/conservative or B) outright lie (at which point arguing about the 'model' is a waste of time).

I'm discussing making decisions with sound model/data, which I believe this administration did in large part thanks to Birx scaring the shit out of Trump by telling him he could have 2 million dead americans in his hands. Was she wrong? I don't know that she was when that was said and we were doing nothing but downplaying it. I certainly would like to see the data/estimates back then.

[DMC]

They're all in the same ballpark with the same data though. None of them are 15 down to zero.

And yes, what you did in the early phase of contagion also has an impact on the overall longevity, especially when contagion is exponential. If you let pockets spread freely early on, you're probably going to be battling with this longer.

I don't expect Nancy the hairdresser in Yuma, AZ to understand how models work, she'll probably get the initial estimate, and then complain two months later how the model hit or missed. But I know you know better.

I'm not even arguing that some outlets might A) weight the error rate towards more dramatic/conservative or B) outright lie (at which point arguing about the 'model' is a waste of time).

I'm discussing making decisions with sound model/data, which I believe this administration did in large part thanks to Birx scaring the shit out of Trump by telling him he could have 2 million dead americans in his hands. Was she wrong? I don't know that she was when that was said and we were doing nothing but downplaying it. I certainly would like to see the data/estimates back then.

Not sure what ballpark you play in. 110M vs 1.8M seems like maybe you're not playing baseball. Are there 18 bases?

They don't have the same data. They have the data that someone plugs into the model, cherry picked data from cherry picking people, each with their own agendas.

[ElNono]

Not sure what ballpark you play in. 110M vs 1.8M seems like maybe you're not playing baseball. Are there 18 bases?

They don't have the same data. They have the data that someone plugs into the model, cherry picked data from cherry picking people, each with their own agendas.

I'll even advance it could very well be the same model. You're simply comparing two different points in time with different circumstances. I suspect one is without doing absolutely nothing, and the other is with lockdowns, distancing, masks, etc.

Projection of data for one and the other are very different, because circumstances and mitigation are different. But we didn't do nothing, we actually did all the other stuff, and the model actually held up pretty well.

I'll have to look back at one of my posts in April when I said, looking at the reference model being used by the government, that it looked like we would be reopening around June 1st. That was actually fairly spot on.

[ChumpDumper]

We can all agree Trump's model was way off.

[tholdren]

Picking models for narratives is a double edged sword, and I think we can agree with that. It actually happened to Trump before he eventually had to recognize that 100k was well within the ballpark, and this was serious. That's why nobody uses models from twitter.

There are true and tested models for infectious diseases that have been used for years on Ebola, Flu, SARS, etc... and they're only as good as the data they're fed, AND all of them include a margin of error.
So if you were doing nothing, they will report 100M, if you tell it you've been doing social distancing, then it's going to come down a lot. It's not magical thinking, it's called mathematics. When you have a virus with an exponential growth profile, the numbers escalate pretty quickly, and what you do to mitigate that, or if you have a vaccine, or if you have a therapeutic treatment, or if the virus is affected by weather, etc they all influence the numbers over time.

It's incredibly easy to dispute statistical models in retrospect if you don't know how they were calculated to begin with. Thus my question on who has a beef with which model right now, because as soon as a couple of weeks have gone by, weather changes, these protest episodes happen, and then you have to feed that data in and get new numbers.
Was it wrong two weeks ago? No, it was within the parameters and information it had at the time. Does the concrete decisions made on those values 2 weeks ago were somehow incorrect because now the model looks different? No, they're not, they were informed decisions based on the information you had available at the time.

We also make decisions that we know will influence the model in positive ways, like social distancing, mask usage, etc, and then we wait for both reality and the model to reflect that.

Fergusons death predictions have happened for years. The model has been highly criticized.

Imperial are trying to have their cake and eat it. Reports of random results are dismissed with responses like “that’s not a problem, just run it a lot of times and take the average”, but at the same time, they’re fixing such bugs when they find them. They know their code can’t withstand scrutiny, so they hid it until professionals had a chance to fix it, but the damage from over a decade of amateur hobby programming is so extensive that even Microsoft were unable to make it run right

[tholdren]

Fergusons death predictions have happened for years. The model has been highly criticized.

Imperial are trying to have their cake and eat it. Reports of random results are dismissed with responses like “that’s not a problem, just run it a lot of times and take the average”, but at the same time, they’re fixing such bugs when they find them. They know their code can’t withstand scrutiny, so they hid it until professionals had a chance to fix it, but the damage from over a decade of amateur hobby programming is so extensive that even Microsoft were unable to make it run right

But this isn't the point, the problem of current manipulation of data only serves to extend fear and mislead the public with daily cases and daily fatality numbers. Not really much you can argue with if you believe in science or math

[ElNono]

Fergusons death predictions have happened for years. The model has been highly criticized.

Imperial are trying to have their cake and eat it. Reports of random results are dismissed with responses like “that’s not a problem, just run it a lot of times and take the average”, but at the same time, they’re fixing such bugs when they find them. They know their code can’t withstand scrutiny, so they hid it until professionals had a chance to fix it, but the damage from over a decade of amateur hobby programming is so extensive that even Microsoft were unable to make it run right

Then bring a better model. It's easy to criticize and not provide a better alternative. Microsoft worked with the University of Washington, which uses a similar model, on the visualization tool that ended up being this site:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

which IIRC, is the model the US government ended up using. And it's been pretty spot on. We discussed some of the numbers where off for hospitalization at some point, and eventually, as more data came in, it was adjusted. That's just how statistical models work.

[ElNono]

But this isn't the point, the problem of current manipulation of data only serves to extend fear and mislead the public with daily cases and daily fatality numbers. Not really much you can argue with if you believe in science or math

This is a conspiracy theory though. Because I can ask you to back up the contention that there's manipulation of data, but you clearly cannot.

[baseline bum]

Chanting "I can't breathe" may literally turn into their last words


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBWj8oiFj44

Make up your mind man. Before these protests you were all about life having to go on and just open everything up.

[DMC]

I'll even advance it could very well be the same model. You're simply comparing two different points in time with different circumstances. I suspect one is without doing absolutely nothing, and the other is with lockdowns, distancing, masks, etc.

Projection of data for one and the other are very different, because circumstances and mitigation are different. But we didn't do nothing, we actually did all the other stuff, and the model actually held up pretty well.

I'll have to look back at one of my posts in April when I said, looking at the reference model being used by the government, that it looked like we would be reopening around June 1st. That was actually fairly spot on.
Unless Vy thought that we would do absolutely nothing, you're basically saying he took the most liberal estimate and ran with it. How is that any different than what I said? It makes you wrong for two reasons (not you specifically), 1) wrong in numbers 2) wrong for the negative nancy outlook on American response

[clambake]

Unless Vy thought that we would do absolutely nothing, you're basically saying he took the most liberal estimate and ran with it. How is that any different than what I said? It makes you wrong for two reasons (not you specifically), 1) wrong in numbers 2) wrong for the negative nancy outlook on American response

Post the pictures of men you wish you were and you can keep the money you owe me, gravy boat

[DMC]

Then bring a better model. It's easy to criticize and not provide a better alternative. Microsoft worked with the University of Washington, which uses a similar model, on the visualization tool that ended up being this site:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

which IIRC, is the model the US government ended up using. And it's been pretty spot on. We discussed some of the numbers where off for hospitalization at some point, and eventually, as more data came in, it was adjusted. That's just how statistical models work.

As more data comes in, you have the results, you don't need the model. This reminds me of Hollinger with the point diff calculations and said at the end of the year they always predicted who would be in 1st. Well shit, by then you know already so sure. What do they do for you in January?

[DMC]

Broken record schtick only 30 other posters here wore out and discarded already.

[clambake]

I think you mean everyone is resigned to the evidence of your fatness, man cow

[ElNono]

Unless Vy thought that we would do absolutely nothing, you're basically saying he took the most liberal estimate and ran with it. How is that any different than what I said? It makes you wrong for two reasons (not you specifically), 1) wrong in numbers 2) wrong for the negative nancy outlook on American response

I can't speak for him, but I don't think he thought we would do nothing. What I suspect is that he took the projections when we were actually doing nothing, and they looked pretty bad. Guessing what we were going to do at that point is a bit of futurology.


As more data comes in, you have the results, you don't need the model. This reminds me of Hollinger with the point diff calculations and said at the end of the year they always predicted who would be in 1st. Well shit, by then you know already so sure. What do they do for you in January?

There are projections in there. The last results update seems to have been on May 19th as I write this. Starting from May 20th, it reads 'Projected'. You can also see the margins of error increase as you project further (as it's logical).

[tholdren]

This is a conspiracy theory though. Because I can ask you to back up the contention that there's manipulation of data, but you clearly cannot.

I've already explained to you the manipulation of data.

1. Daily case reporting lag
2. Hotspot chasing
3. Daily fatality reporting lag.
4. Multiple positives by same person counts as multiple positives
5. Probable cases
6. Weekly all cause fatality in line with average all cause fatality.
-------
After all of that you still have the fact that both wuhan and Italy had the same data regarding at risk and fatality. At risk was 65plus with preexisting and fatality was 2x flu. Not to mention its a seasonal virus and follows a seasonal curve.... how much more do you need. Not a conspiracy, just poor analysis by you it seems.

[Nathan89]

https://twitter.com/davidharsanyi/status/1268184067142549504?s=20

[tholdren]

I've already explained to you the manipulation of data.

1. Daily case reporting lag
2. Hotspot chasing
3. Daily fatality reporting lag.
4. Multiple positives by same person counts as multiple positives
5. Probable cases
6. Weekly all cause fatality in line with average all cause fatality.
-------
After all of that you still have the fact that both wuhan and Italy had the same data regarding at risk and fatality. At risk was 65plus with preexisting and fatality was 2x flu. Not to mention its a seasonal virus and follows a seasonal curve.... how much more do you need. Not a conspiracy, just poor analysis by you it seems.

[TSA]

Nowhere there says the study is bunk. Merely they found some data discrepancies.

BTW, I'm going to be apologizing to you if the study is retracted, I made that commitment, tbh

Expression of concern: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis

Important scientific questions have been raised about data reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra et al—Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis1
—published in The Lancet on May 22, 2020. Although an independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere and is ongoing, with results expected very shortly, we are issuing an Expression of Concern to alert readers to the fact that serious scientific questions have been brought to our attention. We will update this notice as soon as we have further information.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31290-3/fulltext

Expression of Concern: Mehra MR et al. Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621.

On May 1, 2020, we published “Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19,”1 a study of the effect of preexisting treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs) on Covid-19. This retrospective study used data drawn from an international database that included electronic health records from 169 hospitals on three continents. Recently, substantive concerns have been raised about the quality of the information in that database. We have asked the authors to provide evidence that the data are reliable. In the interim and for the benefit of our readers, we are publishing this Expression of Concern about the reliability of their conclusions.

Studies of ACE inhibitors and ARBs in Covid-19 can play an important role in patient care. We encourage readers to consult two other studies we published on May 1, 2020, that used independent data to reach their conclusions.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2020822


A mysterious company’s coronavirus papers in top medical journals may be unraveling

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/mysterious-company-s-coronavirus-papers-top-medical-journals-may-be-unraveling

[ElNono]

I've already explained to you the manipulation of data.

1. Daily case reporting lag
2. Hotspot chasing
3. Daily fatality reporting lag.
4. Multiple positives by same person counts as multiple positives
5. Probable cases
6. Weekly all cause fatality in line with average all cause fatality.
-------
After all of that you still have the fact that both wuhan and Italy had the same data regarding at risk and fatality. At risk was 65plus with preexisting and fatality was 2x flu. Not to mention its a seasonal virus and follows a seasonal curve.... how much more do you need. Not a conspiracy, just poor analysis by you it seems.

We know what your claims are. I asked you to back them up. Links? Reports of manipulation? Give me something credible.

[ElNono]

Expression of concern: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis

Important scientific questions have been raised about data reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra et al—Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis1
—published in The Lancet on May 22, 2020. Although an independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere and is ongoing, with results expected very shortly, we are issuing an Expression of Concern to alert readers to the fact that serious scientific questions have been brought to our attention. We will update this notice as soon as we have further information.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31290-3/fulltext

Expression of Concern: Mehra MR et al. Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621.

On May 1, 2020, we published “Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19,”1 a study of the effect of preexisting treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs) on Covid-19. This retrospective study used data drawn from an international database that included electronic health records from 169 hospitals on three continents. Recently, substantive concerns have been raised about the quality of the information in that database. We have asked the authors to provide evidence that the data are reliable. In the interim and for the benefit of our readers, we are publishing this Expression of Concern about the reliability of their conclusions.

Studies of ACE inhibitors and ARBs in Covid-19 can play an important role in patient care. We encourage readers to consult two other studies we published on May 1, 2020, that used independent data to reach their conclusions.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2020822


A mysterious company’s coronavirus papers in top medical journals may be unraveling

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/mysterious-company-s-coronavirus-papers-top-medical-journals-may-be-unraveling

:tu

This is why science is great, you'll get stuff challenged and re-affirmed or retracted.

[tholdren]

We know what your claims are. I asked you to back them up. Links? Reports of manipulation? Give me something credible.

Lol. If you don't understand that cases and fatalities reported daily, do not actually occur in 24 hrs, im not sure if you're smart enough to analyze any of the other issues. Typical you for spouting off without context.

[ElNono]

Lol. If you don't understand that cases and fatalities reported daily, do not actually occur in 24 hrs, im not sure if you're smart enough to analyze any of the other issues. Typical you for spouting off without context.

It's not a problem of me, or anybody else, understanding anything. It's a problem of you not backing up your own claims. Nobody is taking my claims at face value, I had to link a model, etc. why should we take yours at face value?

If we're going to speculate, I would say the CDC (headed by Mike Pence at this point) has every interest in both making sure your conspiracy is public, and lowballs the death count. Neither are happening though.

[tholdren]

It's not a problem of me, or anybody else, understanding anything. It's a problem of you not backing up your own claims. Nobody is taking my claims at face value, I had to link a model, etc. why should we take yours at face value?

If we're going to speculate, I would say the CDC (headed by Mike Pence at this point) has every interest in both making sure your conspiracy is public, and lowballs the death count. Neither are happening though.
, Joe Macenka, a spokesman for Virginia's COVID-19 Joint Information Command, confirmed that each positive case of the disease would be counted as a new case altogether. "If a person is tested on different days, those tests are counted as separate," he said.

Pressed to clarify the policy, Macenka said that repeat positive cases "are counted as separate cases only if the tests occur on different days. If [a Virginia resident] tested Monday and Tuesday and both are positive, that's two positives.

[spurraider21]

:tu

:tu

Lancet editor Richard Horton told the Guardian: “Given the questions raised about the reliability of the data gathered by Surgisphere, we have today issued an Expression of Concern, pending further investigation.

“An independent data audit is currently underway and we trust that this review, which should be completed within the next week, will tell us more about the status of the findings reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra and colleagues.”


This is why science is great, you'll get stuff challenged and re-affirmed or retracted.
:lol imagine it was treated like religion. if it's wrong, you're just reading it wrong

[tholdren]

It's not a problem of me, or anybody else, understanding anything. It's a problem of you not backing up your own claims. Nobody is taking my claims at face value, I had to link a model, etc. why should we take yours at face value?

If we're going to speculate, I would say the CDC (headed by Mike Pence at this point) has every interest in both making sure your conspiracy is public, and lowballs the death count. Neither are happening though.

Still doesn't excuse you from the ignorance of not understanding daily rates when there is lag. It just means you are not that good at math. And it completely is.

If I give you a daily report that said there are 100 new cases reported and you took that at face value, which you admittedly do, then you would think that the daily infections are at 100. But if you take a step back and see that the positive tests came in a report with a span of 3 or 4 days, that would obliterate your trend line. You dont understand that. So you shouldn't be gossiping about it.

[RandomGuy]

[repeating statements, without any source data to support them.

:jack

You suck at this.

[RandomGuy]

Still doesn't excuse you from the ignorance of not understanding daily rates when there is lag. It just means you are not that good at math. And it completely is.

If I give you a daily report that said there are 100 new cases reported and you took that at face value, which you admittedly do, then you would think that the daily infections are at 100. But if you take a step back and see that the positive tests came in a report with a span of 3 or 4 days, that would obliterate your trend line. You dont understand that. So you shouldn't be gossiping about it.

He is smarter than you are, and better at critical thinking.

http://karenpendergrass.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/karen-Pendergrass-paleo-journey-1024x965.png

[tholdren]

:jack

You suck at this.
ChumpDumper alt. Yes or no. Explain specifically

[tholdren]

He is smarter than you are, and better at critical thinking.

http://karenpendergrass.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/karen-Pendergrass-paleo-journey-1024x965.png
Not really. Youre both not that smart of you dont understand lag and trends. Carry on

[RandomGuy]

ChumpDumper alt. Yes or no. Explain specifically

You have assumed he does not understand something that you understand.

He provides source material when asked, and considers items you provide.

You... strut.

That is the sign of a poser.

Source material or GTFO. Demonstrate your understanding instead of declaring it.

[RandomGuy]

Not really. Youre both not that smart of you dont understand lag and trends. Carry on

Provide a link to any statement of mine that conclusively shows that I do not understand a lag in trends. Your claim, your burden of proof. He who asserts must prove.

or

:jack some more.

[tholdren]

You have assumed he does not understand something that you understand.

He provides source material when asked, and considers items you provide.

You... strut.

That is the sign of a poser.

Source material or GTFO. Demonstrate your understanding instead of declaring it.
I am right. You are not.
Do daily cases and fatalities that are reported occur in the past 24 hrs. Yes or no ChumpDumper?

[tholdren]

Provide a link to any statement of mine that conclusively shows that I do not understand a lag in trends.

or

:jack some more.

lolololl

That just proves it. Lololololol

Lag in trends... bwagahahhahahahah

[RandomGuy]

I am right. You are not.
Do daily cases and fatalities that are reported occur in the past 24 hrs. Yes or no ChumpDumper?

Assuming your definition of "occur" is roughly the same as the common meaning, no.

Easy. See how I answered the question, as asked, the first time, without changing the subject? That is called intellectual honesty.

... and you still do not have any source material. I am still waiting.

[RandomGuy]

Provide a link to any statement of mine that conclusively shows that I do not understand a lag in trends.

or

:jack some more.


lolololl

That just proves it. Lololololol

Lag in trends... bwagahahhahahahah

Same thing that 9-11 truthers do.

Declare victory at the drop of a hat without doing any work. smh.

Keep on :jack -ing

[tholdren]

Same thing that 9-11 truthers do.

Declare victory at the drop of a hat without doing any work. smh.

Keep on :jack -ing

Lololololol trend lag.... bwahahahaha and you think daily cases and fatlities actually occur in 24 hrs....
Classic

Now I know why you can't understand the data..... hahahahaahahahah

[ElNono]

Still doesn't excuse you from the ignorance of not understanding daily rates when there is lag.

I never disputed this, nor ever asked or argued about daily tallies. We even commented that during weekends some cities didn't report, and tallied the totals on monday. Don't see how that changes anything at all though, sooner or later the data is tallied and comes in.

Anxiously awaiting your links to papers/stories backing up your claims of data manipulation.

[ElNono]

:tu

Lancet editor Richard Horton told the Guardian: “Given the questions raised about the reliability of the data gathered by Surgisphere, we have today issued an Expression of Concern, pending further investigation.

“An independent data audit is currently underway and we trust that this review, which should be completed within the next week, will tell us more about the status of the findings reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra and colleagues.”


:lol imagine it was treated like religion. if it's wrong, you're just reading it wrong

yeah, facts based standard, imagine that!

[tholdren]

I never disputed this, nor ever asked or argued about daily tallies. We even commented that during weekends some cities didn't report, and tallied the totals on monday. Don't see how that changes anything at all though, sooner or later the data is tallied and comes in.

Anxiously awaiting your links to papers/stories backing up your claims of data manipulation.

Lol you understand that this prolongs the crisis, right?

[vy65]

Unless Vy thought that we would do absolutely nothing, you're basically saying he took the most liberal estimate and ran with it. How is that any different than what I said? It makes you wrong for two reasons (not you specifically), 1) wrong in numbers 2) wrong for the negative nancy outlook on American response

That one really stuck to yah, huh?

:lol March 12. You really don't understand why you can't compare models that assume nothing happens with the reality of 2 month lockdowns and prolonged social distancing.

[ElNono]

WHO to resume hydroxychloroquine trial
The safety committee “recommended that there are no reasons to modify the trial protocol.”

The World Health Organization will restart its trial of hydroxychloroquine after getting the all-clear from a safety review, its chief announced today.

The U.N. health body paused enrolling patients in the part of its Solidarity trial studying hydroxychloroquine last week. Officials cited a large, observational study in the Lancet — echoing smaller studies — that suggested the malaria and lupus medication increased the risk of heart disease and death. The Lancet study has since come under fire, with the prestigious medical journal issuing an “expression of concern” about various problems with the data collection and methods.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/03/who-to-resume-hydroxychloroquine-trial-298575

---
TSA DarrinS

Again, don't think there's been a retraction to the study and I don't think this is indicative of anything wrong with that particular study, but will update as we get more news.

[ElNono]

Lol you understand that this prolongs the crisis, right?

What are you arguing now? I asked you to backup your claims of data manipulation, shouldn't be difficult since you said this isn't some conspiracy theory.

[tholdren]

What are you arguing now? I asked you to backup your claims of data manipulation, shouldn't be difficult since you said this isn't some conspiracy theory.
Never said that, already did. Gave you direct quotes of double counting positives and you're still to slow to understand lag. Enjoy.

[ElNono]

Never said that, already did. Gave you direct quotes of double counting positives and you're still to slow to understand lag. Enjoy.

Link to these direct quotes? I must've missed them since we started this conversation, or you posted them for somebody else?

There's no misunderstanding here, I asked you to back up your claim, and so far none of that happened.

[ElNono]

Are there even any accounts from administration officials disputing the numbers and supporting your claim? I mean, if there's one party here interested in this crisis being over and having lower casualties, that's them.

[tholdren]

Are there even any accounts from administration officials disputing the numbers and supporting your claim? I mean, if there's one party here interested in this crisis being over and having lower casualties, that's them.

Lol wut? So your idea is the cdc wants to come out and say they were wrong. They buried their most accurate fatality rate and never talked about it after releasing. You know the number that shows 2x the flu.....

[ElNono]

Lol wut? So your idea is the cdc wants to come out and say they were wrong. They buried their most accurate fatality rate and never talked about it after releasing. You know the number that shows 2x the flu.....

Why would they be wrong? Numbers get revised all the time and you claimed this isn't a conspiracy theory and there's evidence of the data manipulation. Why can't they just present the same evidence you have presented here? (lmao)

Do let me know once you found all those reports and quotations backing up your contention of data manipulation so we can review them. I wouldn't want to think you're lying.

[DMC]

I can't speak for him, but I don't think he thought we would do nothing. What I suspect is that he took the projections when we were actually doing nothing, and they looked pretty bad. Guessing what we were going to do at that point is a bit of futurology.



There are projections in there. The last results update seems to have been on May 19th as I write this. Starting from May 20th, it reads 'Projected'. You can also see the margins of error increase as you project further (as it's logical).

But useless, however some here used(d) it as a precursor to end times predictions.

This seems like a repetitive concept around here: Some shit goes down, certain people panic and call ELE right away. Others look at "models" and use that as evidence of the impending ELE. Some more level headed folks look at it and say "meh, based on history and how we react to things, nah". Then you get the "scientist" wannabes here ciphering.

[DMC]

That one really stuck to yah, huh?

:lol March 12. You really don't understand why you can't compare models that assume nothing happens with the reality of 2 month lockdowns and prolonged social distancing.

Because historically we've done nothing during emergencies. Oh but it was in the past, so being wrong by a factor of 100 is just science. Obviously you had lots of disclaimers in your statements (I just didn't see them it seems).

"I said shit before I knew shit" -boiled down

And no, it didn't stick with me. I just ran over it while I was looking at something someone else linked.

[tholdren]

Why would they be wrong? Numbers get revised all the time and you claimed this isn't a conspiracy theory and there's evidence of the data manipulation. Why can't they just present the same evidence you have presented here? (lmao)

Do let me know once you found all those reports and quotations backing up your contention of data manipulation so we can review them. I wouldn't want to think you're lying.
All you have to look at is dailycases and fatalities. They are not being used as such since not all of those cases or fatalities happened on that day.

Its not that difficult to understand basic math...

[tholdren]

But you are obviously much smarter than me. Go here and look at the data yourself.
https://covidtracking.com

Start downloading and let me know what you find. I'm sure you can formulate your own idea, but if you need help let me know.

[vy65]

Because historically we've done nothing during emergencies. Oh but it was in the past, so being wrong by a factor of 100 is just science. Obviously you had lots of disclaimers in your statements (I just didn't see them it seems).

"I said shit before I knew shit" -boiled down

And no, it didn't stick with me. I just ran over it while I was looking at something someone else linked.

You're right. A scientific model should just assume we're gonna do some random, unarticulated shit, without any level of detail or precision, and rely on that assumption in spitting out figures that will be used to make social policy. You don't think shit through before you hit post, do you?

[phxspurfan]

WHO to resume hydroxychloroquine trial
The safety committee “recommended that there are no reasons to modify the trial protocol.”

The World Health Organization will restart its trial of hydroxychloroquine after getting the all-clear from a safety review, its chief announced today.

The U.N. health body paused enrolling patients in the part of its Solidarity trial studying hydroxychloroquine last week. Officials cited a large, observational study in the Lancet — echoing smaller studies — that suggested the malaria and lupus medication increased the risk of heart disease and death. The Lancet study has since come under fire, with the prestigious medical journal issuing an “expression of concern” about various problems with the data collection and methods.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/03/who-to-resume-hydroxychloroquine-trial-298575

---
TSA DarrinS

Again, don't think there's been a retraction to the study and I don't think this is indicative of anything wrong with that particular study, but will update as we get more news.

So they now rename themselves the Guess Who

[ChumpDumper]

But useless, however some here used(d) it as a precursor to end times predictions.

This seems like a repetitive concept around here: Some shit goes down, certain people panic and call ELE right away. Others look at "models" and use that as evidence of the impending ELE. Some more level headed folks look at it and say "meh, based on history and how we react to things, nah". Then you get the "scientist" wannabes here ciphering.Exactly no one called it an ELE.

[boutons_deux]

Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company

Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include

a sci-fi writer :lol

and

adult content model, :lol

provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine

[tholdren]

Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company

Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include

a sci-fi writer :lol

and

adult content model, :lol

provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine


Oh so the experts aren't actually experts... but what will baseline bum and ChumpDumper do?

[boutons_deux]

Blood group type may affect susceptibility to COVID-19 respiratory failure


https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200603/Blood-group-type-may-affect-susceptibility-to-COVID-19-respiratory-failure.aspx (https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200603/Blood-group-type-may-affect-susceptibility-to-COVID-19-respiratory-failure.aspx)

[ElNono]

But useless, however some here used(d) it as a precursor to end times predictions.

This seems like a repetitive concept around here: Some shit goes down, certain people panic and call ELE right away. Others look at "models" and use that as evidence of the impending ELE. Some more level headed folks look at it and say "meh, based on history and how we react to things, nah". Then you get the "scientist" wannabes here ciphering.


All you have to look at is dailycases and fatalities. They are not being used as such since not all of those cases or fatalities happened on that day.

Its not that difficult to understand basic math...

We're going in circles. I told you already that I simply won't take your word for it, back it up.

Like I said from the very begging, it's your conspiracy theory and you received every opportunity to back it up, but apparently cannot.


But you are obviously much smarter than me. Go here and look at the data yourself.
https://covidtracking.com

Start downloading and let me know what you find. I'm sure you can formulate your own idea, but if you need help let me know.

It's your claim, you're the one that has to support it. I supported mine.

[CosmicCowboy]

I was thinking about the weirdness of the protests vs, the corona this morning as I was driving in to work. The City of San Antonio issues a permit for 1000+ protesters to walk arm in arm all over downtown, but won't let high school kids have a graduation? How asymmetrical is that?