Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions [Archive] - Page 31

boutons_deux

03-31-2020, 10:42 AM

Taxpayers Paid Millions to Design a Low-Cost Ventilator for a Pandemic.

Instead, the Company Is Selling Versions of It Overseas.

the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services tried to plug a crucial hole in its preparations for a global pandemic, signing a $13.8 million contract with a Pennsylvania manufacturer to create a low-cost, portable, easy-to-use ventilator that could be stockpiled for emergencies.

the Pennsylvania company that designed the device — a subsidiary of the Dutch appliance and technology giant Royal Philips N.V. — began selling two higher-priced commercial versions of the same ventilator around the world.

“We sell to whoever calls,” said a saleswoman at a small medical-supply company on Staten Island that bought 50 Trilogy Evo ventilators from Philips in early March and last week hiked its online price from $12,495 to $17,154.

neither Trump nor other senior officials made any mention of the Trilogy Evo Universal.

Nor did HHS officials explain why they did not force Philips to accelerate delivery of these ventilators earlier this year,

when it became clear that the virus was overwhelming medical facilities around the world.

a Philips spokesman said the company has no plan to even begin production anytime this year.

Instead, Philips is negotiating with a White House team led by Trump’s son-in-law,

Jared Kushner, :lol to build 43,000 more complex and expensive hospital ventilators for Americans stricken by the virus.

https://www.propublica.org/article/taxpayers-paid-millions-to-design-a-low-cost-ventilator-for-a-pandemic-instead-the-company-is-selling-versions-of-it-overseas-

Why doesn't Trash PDA force the company to build what taxpayers paid it for?

Trash, a supplier fucker extraordinaire, admires people who fuck the business partners.

boutons_deux

03-31-2020, 10:55 AM

'The Danish Way' Is Working: Prime Minister Hints At A Gradual Reopening For April

My professional opinion is that what has been effective in Denmark is that we acted early."

Frederiksen also credits the willingness of Danes to unite in following the rules.

"Our joint efforts are absolutely crucial," she said during her widely broadcast news conference.

In fact, Danes have been so good at self-isolating that doctors have experienced a drastic drop in calls.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823912064/the-danish-way-is-working-prime-minister-hints-at-a-gradual-reopening-for-april?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&fbclid=IwAR34tN_QJAC4aX-l4Ikymea40hjQ-os8fbvyM9U6hgqZHF3HowTQ0SLAiPo (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823912064/the-danish-way-is-working-prime-minister-hints-at-a-gradual-reopening-for-april?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&fbclid=IwAR34tN_QJAC4aX-l4Ikymea40hjQ-os8fbvyM9U6hgqZHF3HowTQ0SLAiPo)

in contrast:

Trash FUCKED OFF, no action for 6 weeks

Conservatives/evangelicals have refused to "follow the rules",

risking their Macho Man Rugged Individualism and

convinced that cooperating with others and the govt is socialism

Thread

03-31-2020, 10:59 AM

CosmicCowboy

03-31-2020, 11:03 AM

1244602911084154880

8-FWulau6Rg

Meanwhile, in downtown San Antonio, a meth head homeless "couple" was fucking yesterday under the bridge by my office 40' from the street and 20' from my truck.

TimDunkem

03-31-2020, 11:06 AM

^Where are they supposed to fuck? Their house?

CosmicCowboy

03-31-2020, 11:11 AM

^Where are they supposed to fuck? Their house?

Uhhh...broad daylight without even a blanket covering them was a little much.

Thread

03-31-2020, 11:16 AM

Meanwhile, in downtown San Antonio, a meth head homeless "couple" was fucking yesterday under the bridge by my office 40' from the street and 20' from my truck.

Did you watch, CC?

hater

03-31-2020, 11:20 AM

Meanwhile, in downtown San Antonio, a meth head homeless "couple" was fucking yesterday under the bridge by my office 40' from the street and 20' from my truck.

and how many inches deep?

Thread

03-31-2020, 11:25 AM

and how many inches deep?

Yes.

Tell it, CC. Testify!!!

I need a decent, fresh prop for later when I get out the rubber mallet & Jerkens and try to get this 3 incher to puke a bit.

So, tell it, gd it. & go slow. Make it last.

TimDunkem

03-31-2020, 11:28 AM

Who fucks under the blankets?

Thread

03-31-2020, 11:37 AM

Who fucks under the blankets?

...in movies & tv...she doesn't even take her bra off, ever. It's a nice bra but it never comes off. Ever. & they always show his ass, but, never her ass. Ever.

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 11:37 AM

https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1244338086949126150?s=20
Did you guys forget to post all the articles talking about the surplus in medical supplies in the US?

Also not sure why they are being prioritized with our surplus medical supplies. They must be a great friend/ally to the US. Seems more strategic to send our surplus to Mexico.

CosmicCowboy

03-31-2020, 11:43 AM

Yes.

Tell it, CC. Testify!!!

I need a decent, fresh prop for later when I get out the rubber mallet & Jerkens and try to get this 3 incher to puke a bit.

So, tell it, gd it. & go slow. Make it last.

Snaggle toothed scabbed up meth whore. Hope that helps you.

TimDunkem

03-31-2020, 11:43 AM

...in movies & tv...she doesn't even take her bra off, ever. It's a nice bra but it never comes off. Ever. & they always show his ass, but, never her ass. Ever.

And they always seem to finish in record time. 20 seconds - in and out - done. Everybody is satisfied, and it was the greatest thing ever.

Thread

03-31-2020, 11:44 AM

Snaggle toothed scabbed up meth whore. Hope that helps you.

You just couldn't lie and make it good for a Vietnam Vet, could you?

GD it!

Thread

03-31-2020, 11:45 AM

And they always seem to finish in record time. 20 seconds - in and out - done. Everybody is satisfied, and it was the greatest thing ever.

Bingo!!!

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 11:56 AM

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1245012371845853184?s=20

hater

03-31-2020, 12:08 PM

why 2 minutes when 10 seconds is faster???

smh

Blake

03-31-2020, 12:32 PM

Did you watch, CC?

:lol

Winehole23

03-31-2020, 12:32 PM

Detainees at Riker's offered PPE and 6 bucks an hour to dig mass graves:

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/31/rikers-island-coronavirus-mass-graves/

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/31/rikers-island-coronavirus-mass-graves/

boutons_deux

03-31-2020, 12:51 PM

imagine: detainees (pre trial, indefinitely, months or years) catch covid-19 at shithole Rikers and die.

Winehole23

03-31-2020, 12:58 PM

imagine: detainees (pre trial, indefinitely, months or years) catch covid-19 at shithole Rikers and die.The graves will likely be on Hunt Island. Gravedigging detail could be a reprieve from COVID-19 for those lucky enough to get the job.

ElNono

03-31-2020, 12:59 PM

Kind of, but not really. The model itself - meaning the calculations run to reach a particular projection - may very well be fine. Validity of the assumptions that are put into the model, that is the problem. Correct inputs/variables/assumptions/etc... will lead to more accurate models while incorrect inputs/variables/assumptions won't. Garbage in, Garbage out: the model will only be as good as the stuff you put into it in the first place.

Mid's point is that the imperial model has a serious flaw in its CFR input. 0.66% vs. 3.4% is well over a 5x difference. That's a huge difference which can make a model utterly meaningless. If the CFR is closer to the .66 figure rather than the 3.4, then the Imperial Model had some garbage put in and its projections are themselves garbage. Again, inaccurate assumptions will give you inaccurate results.

It's hard to argue this without looking at the model and it's assumptions. ie: did it account for collapsing systems and the associated deaths? that would actually be a given under the premise presented (countries doing nothing).

Again, I'm not going to defend a model I know nothing about, especially one that was superseded with augmented information. However, I don't have any evidence he penned that using anything but standard modeling, or was purposely misleading.

ElNono

03-31-2020, 01:05 PM

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1245012371845853184?s=20

This would be great news, if they can be mass produced and distributed before September. Are they anti-body tests?

spurraider21

03-31-2020, 01:25 PM

potholer54 dropping truth nukes per par. yeah... this channel is my limited version of TGY youtube vomits

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4yZaoA90Jk

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 01:36 PM

It's hard to argue this without looking at the model and it's assumptions. ie: did it account for collapsing systems and the associated deaths? that would actually be a given under the premise presented (countries doing nothing).

Again, I'm not going to defend a model I know nothing about, especially one that was superseded with augmented information. However, I don't have any evidence he penned that using anything but standard modeling, or was purposely misleading.

The revised CFR of .66 was working off the Wuhan data (and the Diamond Princess data), and Wuhan did see their healthcare infrastructure overwhelmed. The main variable that has driven down the CFR is the gross underestimation of asymptomatic and mild cases. Is it a factor of 5, 10, 20, 100? We don't know, but the Lancet study tries to ballpark it. When things settle down and those antibody tests come online, we'll just have to randomly mass test millions and then revise the numerator/demoninator accordingly. Hopefully the Summer settles things down, we'll get better data, and then can better plan for what will no doubt be a second wave starting in the Fall.

Thread

03-31-2020, 01:49 PM

The revised CFR of .66 was working off the Wuhan data (and the Diamond Princess data), and Wuhan did see their healthcare infrastructure overwhelmed. The main variable that has driven down the CFR is the gross underestimation of asymptomatic and mild cases. Is it a factor of 5, 10, 20, 100? We don't know, but the Lancet study tries to ballpark it. When things settle down and those antibody tests come online, we'll just have to randomly mass test millions and then revise the numerator/demoninator accordingly. Hopefully the Summer settles things down, we'll get better data, and then can better plan for what will no doubt be a second wave starting in the Fall.

How's come when I cited the .66 I was called everything but a white man & tossed down once & again with the sodomites? "Hi, guys, short time, no see, let me bend over. Okay, I'm ready."

Yet, when somebody else cites it they're feted like the 2nd coming.

It's BS!

hater

03-31-2020, 02:00 PM

France sees biggest fatality day with 500

US overtakes china in deaths

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 02:04 PM

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

See? Easy. But then you start trying to fill in the blanks. That’s when you discover that there isn’t a single number to plug into … anything. Every variable is dependent on a number of choices and knowledge gaps.

The problem is, calculating the virus’ fatality rate is fuzzy from the very start. It can vary wildly from cohort to cohort. “Because age is a huge factor, you have to adjust case fatality rates for the demographic makeup of the U.S., and also the rate of comorbidities,” said Rae Wannier, a biostatistician at the University of California, San Francisco, in an email to FiveThirtyEight. (Comorbidities are other underlying diseases and conditions that can exacerbate the effects of COVID-19.)In other words, there is no single “fatality rate” (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/26/covid-19-tracker/) — there are many. The fatality rate for the United States is going to differ (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/820595489/why-germanys-coronavirus-death-rate-is-far-lower-than-in-other-countries) from the fatality rate in a country where, say, diabetes is less prevalent. The same could be said for the rates within the U.S. — if the virus spreads in a metro area with many elderly residents, the fatality rate calculated there will be higher than if the epicenter was in a city that skewed younger.
But let’s stay international for now. Does knowing the fatality rate of COVID-19 in China or Italy tell us what the fatality rate will be in the U.S.? It certainly helps — but that just lowers the uncertainty, it doesn’t make things certain.
Of course, we probably don’t know the actual fatality rate in those places, anyway. That’s true for a number of reasons, starting with the collection of basic data about coronavirus cases. Numbers aren’t facts. They’re the result of a lot of subjective choices that have to be documented transparently and in detail before you can even begin to consider treating the output as fact. How data is gathered — and whether it is gathered the same way each time — matters.

Think of it like making a pie. If you have a normal recipe, you can do it pretty easily and expect a predictable result that makes sense. But if the recipe contains instructions like “add three to 15 chopped apples, or steaks, or brussels sprouts, depending on what you have on hand” … well, that’s going to affect how tasty this pie is, isn’t it? You can make assumptions about the correct ingredients and their quantity. But those are assumptions — not absolute facts. And if you make too many assumptions in your pie-baking process, you might very well end up with something entirely different than what you were meant to be making. And you wouldn’t necessarily know you got it wrong.Over the next few months, you are going to see many different predictions about COVID-19 outcomes. They won’t all agree. But just because they’re based on assumptions doesn’t mean they’re worthless.
“All models are wrong, it’s striving to make them less wrong and useful in the moment,” Weir said.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 02:05 PM

Noting shows ignorance more than cherry picking certain studies because they conform to your world view rather than taking a holistic approach with all available data/research. IMO.

FkLA

03-31-2020, 02:11 PM

US overtakes china in reported deaths

FIFY tbh

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 02:15 PM

Noting shows ignorance more than cherry picking certain studies because they conform to your world view rather than taking a holistic approach with all available data/research. IMO.

That's what I did from the beginning, but I was told only the initial Imperial study and its projections "counted."

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 02:19 PM

Oh,

“Because age is a huge factor, you have to adjust case fatality rates for the demographic makeup of the U.S., and also the rate of comorbidities,” said Rae Wannier, a biostatistician at the University of California, San Francisco, in an email to FiveThirtyEight. (Comorbidities are other underlying diseases and conditions that can exacerbate the effects of COVID-19.)

While everyone was screaming ITALY!!!, I was saying, "Well, their population is older, they die at a 10x higher rate than the US from the flu, Lombardy region is terribly polluted, and Italy's data also found that the survival rate for older people without pre-existing conditions is 99.2 percent."

:madrun Optimist! You're not an epidemiologist! THE IMPERIAL STUDY! Exponential growth! :madrun

hater

03-31-2020, 02:24 PM

Oh,

While everyone was screaming ITALY!!!, I was saying, "Well, their population is older, they die at a 10x higher rate than the US from the flu, Lombardy region is terribly polluted, and Italy's data also found that the survival rate for older people without pre-existing conditions is 99.2 percent."

:madrun Optimist! You're not an epidemiologist! THE IMPERIAL STUDY! Exponential growth! :madrun

According to a new analysis by the Department of Health and Human Services, 50 to 129 million (19 to 50 percent of) non-elderly Americans have some type of pre-existing health condition.

Senior citizens, who are mostly covered under Medicare, are much more likely to report personally having a pre-existing condition, with 38% saying they do.

In addition to older Americans, those who say they are overweight are especially likely to report having a pre-existing condition -- 34% do, compared with 22% who describe themselves as being normal weight or underweight.

DMC

03-31-2020, 02:25 PM

Florida median age 42.2 years.

Half of Florida's population is older than that...

22,000,000 people.

Infect a total of 60% over the course of a year.

13,200,000

Assuming infection does not favor any demographic, i.e. infection hits all demographics in the same proportion as in the wider population:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/florida-population/#byAge

80+ =523,000 people*0.6*.148= 46,442
70-79=1059600 *0.6*.08=84,768
60-69=1525800*0.6*.036=54,928
50-59=1692000*0.6*.013=21,996

Figure remainder of population
17400000*.6*.02=209,000

Over the course of a year. 208,135 fatalities in the next 12 months for remainder of the population.
209,000+208135=417,135

per this data table.

predicted by lancet study:
22,000,000*.6*.0066 = 87,000

Assuming lancet study is accurate, this data table is not.

I think your math is faulty.

DMC

03-31-2020, 02:28 PM

Funny, no one seems to take issue with influenza death rate method.

Blake

03-31-2020, 02:29 PM

Funny, no one seems to take issue with influenza death rate method.

Oh good. It'd been at least 24 hours since someone whatabouted the flu

DMC

03-31-2020, 02:30 PM

This would be great news, if they can be mass produced and distributed before September. Are they anti-body tests?

It says 2m antibody testing kit.

DMC

03-31-2020, 02:39 PM

Link?

An infant *has* died.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/cook-county-infant-dies-from-coronavirus-first-in-us/2246475/

An Illinois infant diagnosed with COVID-19 may be the first US baby killed by the pandemic, though the cause of death is unknown, according to a local report

NY Post

DMC

03-31-2020, 02:41 PM

Oh good. It'd been at least 24 hours since someone whatabouted the flu
Casual dismissal of the fact doesn't negate it.

SnakeBoy

03-31-2020, 02:43 PM

This would be great news, if they can be mass produced and distributed before September. Are they anti-body tests?

"The Bodysphere two-minute test can only detect the coronavirus in people who have had the infection for several days, meaning the test can't be used too early on when the body hasn't produced enough antibodies."

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 02:45 PM

According to a new analysis by the Department of Health and Human Services, 50 to 129 million (19 to 50 percent of) non-elderly Americans have some type of pre-existing health condition.

Senior citizens, who are mostly covered under Medicare, are much more likely to report personally having a pre-existing condition, with 38% saying they do.

In addition to older Americans, those who say they are overweight are especially likely to report having a pre-existing condition -- 34% do, compared with 22% who describe themselves as being normal weight or underweight.

Yes, and this is concerning, especially re: the South's obesity rate. But in terms of respiratory illness susceptibility, Italy seems to be one of the most fragile regions in the world (Europeans are typically chronic smokers, as well).

boutons_deux

03-31-2020, 02:50 PM

Oh good. It'd been at least 24 hours since someone whatabouted the flu

2009/2010 USA H1N1 swine FLU: 60M infected, 12500 dead, was less transmissible, was less mortal than covid-19

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 03:00 PM

And credit MannyIsGod for the 538 article. I'd like to highlight a few passages:

The results of this unusual setup suggest that there are a lot of people walking around with COVID-19 who don’t know it — and, consequently, that the death rates are lower than other data has suggested. In the Diamond Princess population, the fatality rate for people with a diagnosis and symptoms was 2.3 percent, but the fatality rate for all diagnosed cases — including those who were asymptomatic — was 1.2 percent.1 In Iceland, a company called deCODE Genetics started offering free screenings to the general, asymptomatic population on March 13. As of March 29, deCODE identified 71 infected people in a sample of 8,694 tests, including asymptomatic infections.

For a goddamn week I've been talking about how these studies could shed better light on what the ratio of mild/asymptomatic to severe cases might be. I was basically shouted down and told to "trust the experts!" experts in this case being the Imperial Study and similar studies that share those projections.

Here’s the thing: Transmission is likely to be extremely variable, dependent on all kinds of social behaviors, local environmental details and political decisions. It’s not going to be the same from one country to another. It’s probably not going to be the same from one state to another. It’s going to change over time depending on what actions we take to combat the virus. Malaria, for example, has a higher basic reproduction number in places where there’s a lot of standing water.

Been saying this for a week, that you can't neatly compare regions 1 to 1, and that population density, weather, social behavior, and primary method of travel (mass transit vs. cars) play a big role in spread. I was told to shut up and prepare for every part of the country to become Italy or a mini-Italy.

“All models are wrong, it’s striving to make them less wrong and useful in the moment,” Weir said..

Yep. And compared with other models and opinions, the Imperial model is more wrong from my point-of-view. But I (nor anyone else) is not allowed to have that point-of-view because I'm "not an expert," even though I'm invoking expert opinion.

Blake

03-31-2020, 03:23 PM

Casual dismissal of the fact doesn't negate it.

Are you really still wondering why the governments of the world are shutting over COVID and not the seasonal flu?

It's pretty funny how such a super sleuth like you would prefer to use his skills to dig up info on spurstalk posters instead of easy to find answers to his real world questions

Bynumite

03-31-2020, 03:27 PM

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gif https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gifhttps://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gif
https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gif https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gif https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gif
https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gifhttps://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gifhttps://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gif

DMC

03-31-2020, 03:31 PM

Are you really still wondering why the governments of the world are shutting over COVID and not the seasonal flu?

It's pretty funny how such a super sleuth like you would prefer to use his skills to dig up info on spurstalk posters instead of easy to find answers to his real world questions

No, I know why. The method for death rate is the topic. Set aside crumb snatching for a minute you might realize it. Unlike you, I don't need to hire a PI to do my research.

Thread

03-31-2020, 04:02 PM

Drove to the Post Office an hour ago.

You ain't going to believe this but I came across 2 Estate Sales! You're walking around in a dead old person's home with primarily old living people.

Our Gov/Arizona put in place a stay at home order yesterday, except for essential places to remain open. Golf courses on the essential list! Nail salons as well.

Blake

03-31-2020, 04:07 PM

No, I know why. The method for death rate is the topic. Set aside crumb snatching for a minute you might realize it. Unlike you, I don't need to hire a PI to do my research.

K, I'll leave you to your ramblings that have nothing to do with anything then. Carry on.

Blake

03-31-2020, 04:12 PM

CosmicCowboy

03-31-2020, 04:21 PM

8KPbJ0-DxTc

Thread

03-31-2020, 04:24 PM

Call the cops. After your purchase.

:toast Honest to God, I registered my aghast, broke, but, resisted & drove on home stopping at the Circle K to purchase 2 Caramellow Bars.

ElNono

03-31-2020, 04:38 PM

It says 2m antibody testing kit.

Thanks

ElNono

03-31-2020, 04:39 PM

"The Bodysphere two-minute test can only detect the coronavirus in people who have had the infection for several days, meaning the test can't be used too early on when the body hasn't produced enough antibodies."

Thanks, couldn’t read the link earlier

Pelicans78

03-31-2020, 04:51 PM

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 05:00 PM

That's what I did from the beginning, but I was told only the initial Imperial study and its projections "counted."

By who?

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 05:04 PM

And credit MannyIsGod (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=76) for the 538 article. I'd like to highlight a few passages:

For a goddamn week I've been talking about how these studies could shed better light on what the ratio of mild/asymptomatic to severe cases might be. I was basically shouted down and told to "trust the experts!" experts in this case being the Imperial Study and similar studies that share those projections.

Been saying this for a week, that you can't neatly compare regions 1 to 1, and that population density, weather, social behavior, and primary method of travel (mass transit vs. cars) play a big role in spread. I was told to shut up and prepare for every part of the country to become Italy or a mini-Italy.

.

Yep. And compared with other models and opinions, the Imperial model is more wrong from my point-of-view. But I (nor anyone else) is not allowed to have that point-of-view because I'm "not an expert," even though I'm invoking expert opinion.

You're allowed to h ave whatever opinion you want. I've repeatedly told you why what you say is wrong and not the same as what experts say, but you are apparently unable to process this. 71 people out of ~9000 tests doesn't' bode well for your theories, btw.

I don't know what to tell you anymore, and you don't seem to understand the things I do say, so I'll just save my breath (keystrokes).

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 05:12 PM

1244838423594020865

This is something I hadn't considered as to one way the testing numbers are being inflated somewhat. Still seems more prudent to look at proxies where available (or at least use both to provide context).

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 05:13 PM

By who?

Basically you. You've stuck by the Imperial model and other like doomsday projections from day 1, and have pretty much ignored contrary studies.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 05:21 PM

Basically you. You've stuck by the Imperial model and other like doomsday projections from day 1, and have pretty much ignored contrary studies.

Would love for you to find the post where I told you anything like that.

I'll wait.

DMC

03-31-2020, 05:22 PM

K, I'll leave you to your ramblings that have nothing to do with anything then. Carry on.

You should always adapt that stance with me. You rarely if ever have anything to add.

DMC

03-31-2020, 05:23 PM

I dismissed the Imperial Study pretty much right away. Not sure why anyone else thought it was the book of Revelations.

hater

03-31-2020, 05:24 PM

I dismissed the Imperial Study pretty much right away. Not sure why anyone else thought it was the book of Revelations

bendover Ill show you a revelation

SnakeBoy

03-31-2020, 05:29 PM

Good news...Foo Fighters have rescheduled their tour for this December when the Wuhan Flu is gone

Thread

03-31-2020, 05:32 PM

I dismissed the Imperial Study pretty much right away. Not sure why anyone else thought it was the book of Revelations.

Love the part in Revelations where it talks about the end of times...{not verbatim,} but, ballpark:::saw it on the preface to the film:::"Devil's Due" which got roundly panned, but, is quite the goods...

"The anti-Christ will come. There will be many anti-Christs."

StormLuva

03-31-2020, 05:33 PM

Basically you. You've stuck by the Imperial model and other like doomsday projections from day 1, and have pretty much ignored contrary studies.

:lol you’re talking to a guy who routinely hopes for the worst case scenario. He’s been called out for years on this site for blowing a load whenever there’s mass casualties whether it’s natural disasters or a pandemic such as this.

I would seriously bow out if I were you. He would rather sacrifice his first born son than have the coronavirus turn out to be a dud. Whenever Manny thinks there’s a good chance for numerous amount of deaths he’s going to stick to his opinion by life or death hoping it comes to fruition tbh.

Medvedenko

03-31-2020, 05:42 PM

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 05:43 PM

You're allowed to h ave whatever opinion you want. I've repeatedly told you why what you say is wrong and not the same as what experts say, but you are apparently unable to process this. 71 people out of ~9000 tests doesn't' bode well for your theories, btw.

I don't know what to tell you anymore, and you don't seem to understand the things I do say, so I'll just save my breath (keystrokes).

:lol Because you're regurgitating the opinion of a select group of experts. Have you bothered to read the University of Maryland study (funny how you were quick to call the warm weather "bunk" based on the isolated situation in LA, when warm weather climates haven't exploded like cold weather climates to anywhere near the same degree. Look at Australia. Lord Fauci himself admitted this is probably seasonal). Have you bothered to look at the University of Washington projections? Have you read the opinions of the other leading experts, like John Ioannidis, Paul Auwaerter, the Oxford Study, and the many interviewed experts who have gone on record in saying that CFR is very likely under 1 percent (further confirmed by the Lancet study, where the infallible Neil Ferguson was a sponsor)? I know you haven't read much into this, because you even get the data from the Iceland study wrong (538 didn't do their research, apparently).

– As of March 25, Iceland has administered 12,615 tests.
– Of those tests, Iceland has found 802 confirmed cases.

And in terms of sample size, that represents a greater proportion of the population tested than anywhere in the world.

Your bone to pick is obvious, evidenced by you calling it "my theory." No, that is the theory of "experts" in Iceland. I'm just passing the information on. But it seems you're blinded to any information that just might run contrary to the 2.4 million dead scenarios. And you keep telling me about "all these experts" who are in lockstep with the Imperial model (to clarify, THAT is what I'm challenging. Do I think this virus is going to kick our collective asses and overrun vulnerable areas? Yes. Do I think we need to be highly concerned? Yes. Do I think the worst of the worst cases is plausible? No), so who are they?

A recent paper by Fauci himself theorized that the CFR is probably well below 1 percent:

https://imgur.com/a/AEI0Y17

And this is what I've argued for a week straight. That the Imperial model is "bunk" because it assumes the Wuhan CFR, when that is looking like it's nowhere the case. This is why the "distrust of experts" exists (usually a few experts get lionized above others, in this case, Neil Ferguson and Anthony Fauci). Because there's this condescension that non-experts can't use their fuckin' brains and make a logical deduction from evaluating all sides of the argument.

Thread

03-31-2020, 05:54 PM

Watching that COVID update from Trump et al was very depressing. Watching them go through graphs that show the death rate and how cavalier they were on the # of deaths. I get it and it makes sense, but watching Fauci and Deb go through it was a lot better than Trump trying to dumb down the #'s. I feel bad for the USA. Good luck everyone and stay safe.

All 3, + Pence were evasive & just about equally so. The reporters were aghast at the reality of the information they were hearing.

[Even with mitigation] that is the number. It's graveling, sobering, frightening. Difficult to hear, even more difficult to accept. Almost a living nightmare.

ADDENDUM:::We are used to(as American)to hear such cataclysmic news with a built in out that is lit in sunshine. "But, if you do this---that won't happen." That's how we've lived all of our lives.

This wasn't that. It may be. They may be playing possum, but, they ain't giving it away like we're also used to. "Ah, he's just fucking around. It'll be okay."

Mark Celibate

03-31-2020, 05:57 PM

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 05:58 PM

Would love for you to find the post where I told you anything like that.

I'll wait.

You're implied it.

"Warm weather theory is bunk." (by referring to the LA situation as the single example).

"TEXAS ISN'T LOOKING GOOD! ARE YOU FUCKIN' KIDDING ME!!!" Maybe they'll hit an inflection point, but from looking at the data, states/regions that are getting throttled usually see an inflection point within 8-12 days of their first death (and yes, we know death toll is unreliable due to the lag). Texas has been consistent day over day.

"A persistent defense the Imperial model." I felt that Ferguson's projection from 500K dead in the UK to 20K dead and then to 5700 dead in the span of like 10 minutes tells me his methodology isn't consistent and/or he isn't sharing how the changing dynamics of the situation (i.e. the lower CFR than initially thought) is altering the upper and lower bound projections. He can say all he wants that "he didn't change the model." But I smell bullshit. What likely happened is the input parameters changed from which those initial "doomsday" projections were made, like a lower CFR and R0. But he didn't share much with us besides, "My model is right! It's the UK's social distancing and lockdown policies that will lead to the 5700 dead." No, it's probably because he vastly overestimated the CFR and doesn't want to admit it.

SnakeBoy

03-31-2020, 05:59 PM

A recent paper by Fauci himself theorized that the CFR is probably well below 1 percent:

I don't think there is any doubt that the CFR is lower than 1 percent.

I also don't think there is any doubt that without any attempt to control spread that percentage (whatever it may be) will overwhelm the system and increase the CFR as well as lead to higher fatalities with other illnesses/injuries.

I'm not clear on what you and Manny are arguing about though.

Thread

03-31-2020, 06:02 PM

Well I’m glad Fauci made you feel better. Would hate for Trump to hurt your feelings... I’m not saying you should commit suicide but looking at the next opportunity to end your existence may not be a bad idea and could do the rest of the world a solid. In other words, kill yourself

& indeed Fauci did condescend to the worry warts, the Americans who craved (an out). "Don't leave me like this, I want to enjoy my layoff this evening in front of the television, everybody is in the house, the kids, the wife...please, sir." & Fauci buckled just a bit toward the last for (us). It's human. Just have to hope he's buckling to the possum & not the bitter truth.

baseline bum

03-31-2020, 06:03 PM

Almost a living nightmare.

It ain't almost. It'll be in your neck of the woods and mine soon enough. Though I have accepted that we're going to have on the order of ~500,000 dead Americans for a while now, ever since it really started going in Europe early this month.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 06:03 PM

:lol Because you're regurgitating the opinion of a select group of experts. Have you bothered to read the University of Maryland study (funny how you were quick to call the warm weather "bunk" based on the isolated situation in LA, when warm weather climates haven't exploded like cold weather climates to anywhere near the same degree. Look at Australia. Lord Fauci himself admitted this is probably seasonal). Have you bothered to look at the University of Washington projections? Have you read the opinions of the other leading experts, like John Ioannidis, Paul Auwaerter, the Oxford Study, and the many interviewed experts who have gone on record in saying that CFR is very likely under 1 percent (further confirmed by the Lancet study, where the infallible Neil Ferguson was a sponsor)? I know you haven't read much into this, because you even get the data from the Iceland study wrong (538 didn't do their research, apparently).

And in terms of sample size, that represents a greater proportion of the population tested than anywhere in the world.

Your bone to pick is obvious, evidenced by you calling it "my theory." No, that is the theory of "experts" in Iceland. I'm just passing the information on. But it seems you're blinded to any information that just might run contrary to the 2.4 million dead scenarios. And you keep telling me about "all these experts" who are in lockstep with the Imperial model (to clarify, THAT is what I'm challenging. Do I think this virus is going to kick our collective asses and overrun vulnerable areas? Yes. Do I think we need to be highly concerned? Yes. Do I think the worst of the worst cases is plausible? No), so who are they?

A recent paper by Fauci himself theorized that the CFR is probably well below 1 percent:

https://imgur.com/a/AEI0Y17

And this is what I've argued for a week straight. That the Imperial model is "bunk" because it assumes the Wuhan CFR, when that is looking like it's nowhere the case. This is why the "distrust of experts" exists (usually a few experts get lionized above others, in this case, Neil Ferguson and Anthony Fauci). Because there's this condescension that non-experts can't use their fuckin' brains and make a logical deduction from evaluating all sides of the argument.

I've never once told you that you have to buy into the Imperial model and nothing else. Never even insinuated anything near that. I specifically told you the exact opposite of that in several posts.

You can't read my dude. That's not my fault. Thats on you. This is why you can't link the places I told you that, because they don't exist.

As for the rest of what you posted, I don't even care anymore. You first said Louisiana was an outlier but was overstated due to a nursing home.

Your posts on this start here:

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=283058&p=10101981&viewfull=1#post10101981

I told you to check back in two weeks. Well, 1 week later, the Governor of LA has said they're about to run out of Ventilators and Hosptial beds by this weekend. Florida just reported its largest day of positive results over 1k.

You're free to believe what you want my man. You're free to cherry pick whatever data you need to in order to feel like this isn't going to be that bad. I get it, it sucks for all of us. But the numbers don't lie.

Thread

03-31-2020, 06:04 PM

You're implied it.

"Warm weather theory is bunk."[/B] (by referring to the LA situation as the single example).

"TEXAS ISN'T LOOKING GOOD! ARE YOU FUCKIN' KIDDING ME!!!" Maybe they'll hit an inflection point, but from looking at the data, states/regions that are getting throttled usually see an inflection point within 8-12 days of their first death (and yes, we know death toll is unreliable due to the lag). Texas has been consistent day over day.

"A persistent defense the Imperial model." I felt that Ferguson's projection from 500K dead in the UK to 20K dead and then to 5700 dead in the span of like 10 minutes tells me his methodology isn't consistent and/or he isn't sharing how the changing dynamics of the situation (i.e. the lower CFR than initially thought) is altering the upper and lower bound projections. He can say all he wants that "he didn't change the model." But I smell bullshit. What likely happened is the input parameters changed from which those initial "doomsday" projections were made, like a lower CFR and R0. But he didn't share much with us besides, "My model is right! It's the UK's social distancing and lockdown policies that will lead to the 5700 dead." No, it's probably because he vastly overestimated the CFR and doesn't want to admit it.

Let's face it, Midst, we all smelled a rat there, but, we latched on anyway.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 06:05 PM

Medvedenko

03-31-2020, 06:07 PM

Well I’m glad Fauci made you feel better. Would hate for Trump to hurt your feelings... I’m not saying you should commit suicide but looking at the next opportunity to end your existence may not be a bad idea and could do the rest of the world a solid. In other words, kill yourself

Trust me, Trump doesn't hurt my feelings, he's out of his depth right now. This isn't some company that is in the red and he's trying to turn around profit #'s. Keep believing though. Plus, they keep banging the gong of "if we did nothing, millions would be dead" BS, so sad really. What country is doing nothing? It's the dumbest shit I've ever heard. If that was my boss, let alone President I'd quit. On the suicide note....USA is on the end of the rope since Nov 2016....

Thread

03-31-2020, 06:08 PM

It ain't almost. It'll be in your neck of the woods and mine soon enough. Though I have accepted that we're going to have on the order of ~500,000 dead Americans for a while now, ever since it really started going in Europe early this month.

Christ, I hope you're wrong, bum.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 06:08 PM

You're implied it.

"Warm weather theory is bunk." (by referring to the LA situation as the single example).

"TEXAS ISN'T LOOKING GOOD! ARE YOU FUCKIN' KIDDING ME!!!" Maybe they'll hit an inflection point, but from looking at the data, states/regions that are getting throttled usually see an inflection point within 8-12 days of their first death (and yes, we know death toll is unreliable due to the lag). Texas has been consistent day over day.

"A persistent defense the Imperial model." I felt that Ferguson's projection from 500K dead in the UK to 20K dead and then to 5700 dead in the span of like 10 minutes tells me his methodology isn't consistent and/or he isn't sharing how the changing dynamics of the situation (i.e. the lower CFR than initially thought) is altering the upper and lower bound projections. He can say all he wants that "he didn't change the model." But I smell bullshit. What likely happened is the input parameters changed from which those initial "doomsday" projections were made, like a lower CFR and R0. But he didn't share much with us besides, "My model is right! It's the UK's social distancing and lockdown policies that will lead to the 5700 dead." No, it's probably because he vastly overestimated the CFR and doesn't want to admit it.

So I implied to you that you should consider nothing but the imperial model because i told you that warm weather theory is bunk? Really? THIS is your reach?

Hooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooly shit man. Do you even have a shoulder?

How do you get me supporting nothing but an imperial model by saying that the warm weather theory was wrong? How are the two even related? Bro, REALLY?

Look, I may be wrong about my thoughts on warm weather. I said as much on a post to Snake Boy that very same day a few posts after I called it bunk. But this shit, lol, this is hilarious.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 06:11 PM

MP, its OK to just say that you're wrong. I did it with warm weather stuff. Its still spreading in warm weather areas currently, but Snake Boy posted some graphics that showed it might die off come May. We'll see.

baseline bum

03-31-2020, 06:12 PM

Christ, I hope you're wrong, bum.

Well when I say order of ~500,000, I just mean order of magnitude. So anything from say 150,000 to 1,500,000 could be reasonably said to fit that range. I just got that number from a projection by Michael Osterholm once this started really going in Europe about 3 weeks ago. Very interesting interview if you have never seen, Joe Rogan might be the best interviewer I have ever seen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Thread

03-31-2020, 06:12 PM

Trust me, Trump doesn't hurt my feelings, he's out of his depth right now. This isn't some company that is in the red and he's trying to turn around profit #'s. Keep believing though. Plus, they keep banging the gong of "if we did nothing, millions would be dead" BS, so sad really. What country is doing nothing? It's the dumbest shit I've ever heard. If that was my boss, let alone President I'd quit. On the suicide note....USA is on the end of the rope since Nov 2016....

But, he's saying if we didn't do anything it'd be millions. He's also saying as well as the doctors are saying:::even if we do mitigation it's going to be 100,000-200,000 dead.

Most of the reporters there could not process that statement from him, or, those doctors. One reason is because the President and doctors didn't go around the lectern beating on the lectern, screaming and yelling and begging God for relief. They stated it, not once, not twice, but, many times while looking eye in a calm voice. Still the reporters couldn't grasp it.

Medvedenko

03-31-2020, 06:15 PM

But, he's saying if we didn't do anything it'd be millions. He's also saying as well as the doctors are saying:::even if we do mitigation it's going to be 100,000-200,000 dead.

Most of the reporters there could not process that statement from him, or, those doctors. One reason is because the President and doctors didn't go around the lectern beating on the lectern, screaming and yelling and begging God for relief. They stated it, not once, not twice, but, many times while looking eye in a calm voice. Still the reporters couldn't grasp it.

It's pure "hedging your bets" my friend. Classic business move, from a business man. He's just having his team support it. Anything less than 100k Trump will be sing to the heavens and gloat. It's kind of gross honestly. So morally bankrupt.

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 06:15 PM

I don't think there is any doubt that the CFR is lower than 1 percent.

I also don't think there is any doubt that without any attempt to control spread that percentage (whatever it may be) will overwhelm the system and increase the CFR as well as lead to higher fatalities with other illnesses/injuries.

I'm not clear on what you and Manny are arguing about though.

If I post a theory, opinion from other experts, Manny will usually pipe in that I'm wrong, while willingly ignoring what those experts are saying. He even stated above that "I'm wrong," per my quote about population density, weather, and social behavior being big factors in spread, which is funny because every expert pretty much agrees those are BIG factors, and that idea was quoted from the 538 piece he posted himself.

I think Manny's issue here is that he's taking his frustration with all the people who play armchair climate scientist (his field) and tell him his theories are wrong, inaccurate, etc out on me. He's casting me in that role of "self-appointed climate expert" he probably deals with frequently. I'm not doing anything like that. I am relating information I've learned from other renown experts in the field and then just opinionizing on what those theories might hold for us, i.e. the warm weather theory and population density arguments make a lot of sense, so it's my opinion that regions with those characteristics won't get hit anywhere near as hard as New York, Italy, etc. They might even likely remain under the curve throughout this pandemic, as this projection model shows:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

But I say this, and Manny is quick to chime in with "you're no expert!!!! Italy!"

baseline bum

03-31-2020, 06:16 PM

It's pure "hedging your bets" my friend. Classic business move, from a business man. He's just having his team support it. Anything less than 100k Trump will be sing to the heavens and gloat. It's kind of gross honestly. So morally bankrupt.

If we have less than 100k dead by Dec 31st we should all be singing to the heavens honestly

Medvedenko

03-31-2020, 06:18 PM

If we have less than 100k dead by Dec 31st we should all be singing to the heavens honestly

Of course! I just don't like "modeling porn" as #'s can change up or down in each moment, especially with demographics.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 06:22 PM

If I post a theory, opinion from other experts, Manny will usually pipe in that I'm wrong, while willingly ignoring what those experts are saying. He even stated above that "I'm wrong," per my quote about population density, weather, and social behavior being big factors in spread, which is funny because every expert pretty much agrees those are BIG factors, and that idea was quoted from the 538 piece he posted himself.

I think Manny's issue here is that he's taking his frustration with all the people who play armchair climate scientist (his field) and tell him his theories are wrong, inaccurate, etc out on me. He's casting me in that role of "self-appointed climate expert" he probably deals with frequently. I'm not doing anything like that. I am relating information I've learned from other renown experts in the field and then just opinionizing on what those theories might hold for us, i.e. the warm weather theory and population density arguments make a lot of sense, so it's my opinion that regions with those characteristics won't get hit anywhere near as hard as New York, Italy, etc. They might even likely remain under the curve throughout this pandemic, as this projection model shows:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

But I say this, and Manny is quick to chime in with "you're no expert!!!! Italy!"

Nah my issue is usually you take things out of context. Like when you say the imperial study was revised when it wasn't. You make improper inferences from the things experts say and then post them here. But honestly, if you think me saying the warm weather theory was bunk means that you should only follow the imperial model then I can see why you misinterpret other things too.

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 06:22 PM

So I implied to you that you should consider nothing but the imperial model because i told you that warm weather theory is bunk? Really? THIS is your reach?

Hooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooly shit man. Do you even have a shoulder?

How do you get me supporting nothing but an imperial model by saying that the warm weather theory was wrong? How are the two even related? Bro, REALLY?

Look, I may be wrong about my thoughts on warm weather. I said as much on a post to Snake Boy that very same day a few posts after I called it bunk. But this shit, lol, this is hilarious.

Because the warm weather theory will slow down spread. You seem to be against ANYTHING that suggests spread will slow down. I'm implying from this that you are attached to ANY worst case scenario projections, whether they are from the Imperial study or not. That's where I'm making the "connection." You dismiss anything and everything that doesn't have spread neatly riding the tracks of exponential growth until the worst case scenario is realized.

What was "I wrong about?" Didn't I say CFR is probably below 1 percent? Looking likely. Didn't I say, a week ago, that warm weather/less densely populated areas aren't as vulnerable? How's California, Texas, Florida, Australia, Arizona looking vs. New York, Michigan, New Jersey, etc?

Oh, and this isn't "me" being right. I'm regurgitating the experts that theorized this. I just happened to agree with them over the more pessimistic experts.

DarrinS

03-31-2020, 06:23 PM

https://covid19.healthdata.org

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 06:23 PM

If we have less than 100k dead by Dec 31st we should all be singing to the heavens honestly

Uh, we're going to have 100k dead more than likely by the end of April. So yeah, not hitting that mark by the end of the year would be an amazing miracle.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 06:27 PM

Because the warm weather theory will slow down spread. You seem to be against ANYTHING that suggests spread will slow down. I'm implying from this that you are attached to ANY worst case scenario projections, whether they are from the Imperial study or not. That's where I'm making the "connection." You dismiss anything and everything that doesn't have spread neatly riding the tracks of exponential growth until the worst case scenario is realized.

What was "I wrong about?" Didn't I say CFR is probably below 1 percent? Looking likely. Didn't I say, a week ago, that warm weather/less densely populated areas aren't as vulnerable? How's California, Texas, Florida, Australia, Arizona looking vs. New York, Michigan, New Jersey, etc?

Oh, and this isn't "me" being right. I'm regurgitating the experts that theorized this. I just happened to agree with them over the more pessimistic experts.

So now I also told you population density didn't matter? I literally said the opposite.

Florida is looking pretty bad to be honest. California isn't warm weather. Australia I honestly have no idea because I have no idea what they're more functional government is doing to prevent the spread. Haven't kept up with them. Mexico is looking pretty bad though, and they have warm weather too. Spain isn't exactly cold and they're not doing well. And of course, Louisiana.

But anyway, its obvious to me that I've hurt your feelings somewhere along the way. I'm sorry for that, MP. Just don't take my words out of context and we'll be fine.

Also, you want to know what slows the spread down? Social distancing and government mandated actions of the like. Thats why the curve bends. Not because of some warm air.

Here's a hint, if you can't go back and find a place where I said something you think i said, I didn't say. I don't need to imply things, I'm pretty direct in what I mean. If you don't understand, ask me to clarify. But don't ascribe your bullshit to me, thanks.

FkLA

03-31-2020, 06:27 PM

If we have less than 100k dead by Dec 31st we should all be singing to the heavens honestly

I know initial estimates were much higher but man 100-240k still seems like a fuckload considering where we're at right now.

What percentage of that will be NY/NJ? Are they expecting a bunch of other "hotspots" to pop up? What's the outlook for TX?

baseline bum

03-31-2020, 06:33 PM

I know initial estimates were much higher but man 100-240k still seems like a fuckload considering where we're at right now.

What percentage of that will be NY/NJ? Are they expecting a bunch of other "hotspots" to pop up? What's the outlook for TX?

We went from 300 to 3850 in like ten days. It honestly doesn't sound like that high a number.

hater

03-31-2020, 06:35 PM

ma niga Bum is onto something

they said 100,000 dead. they did not say when and they did not say that was the end of it

I already called for a wave #2 which might be more brutal than the first

even if that doesnt happen. how are we going to restart normal life if the moment we ho back out the cases jump again

this will be a cat and mouse game until some kind of immunity is achieved in hich could easily be 6 months to abyear from now

so Bums #s are actually conservative

whatever # the US government is fooating it will be at least 10X that

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 06:38 PM

All 3, + Pence were evasive & just about equally so. The reporters were aghast at the reality of the information they were hearing.

[Even with mitigation] that is the number. It's graveling, sobering, frightening. Difficult to hear, even more difficult to accept. Almost a living nightmare.

ADDENDUM:::We are used to(as American)to hear such cataclysmic news with a built in out that is lit in sunshine. "But, if you do this---that won't happen." That's how we've lived all of our lives.

This wasn't that. It may be. They may be playing possum, but, they ain't giving it away like we're also used to. "Ah, he's just fucking around. It'll be okay."

100 to 200 thousand dead americans with trump as president

without trump = 10k deaths TOPS

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 06:39 PM

Nah my issue is usually you take things out of context. Like when you say the imperial study was revised when it wasn't. You make improper inferences from the things experts say and then post them here. But honestly, if you think me saying the warm weather theory was bunk means that you should only follow the imperial model then I can see why you misinterpret other things too.

Like what? How is me "directly quoting" what the experts say "taking things out of context?"

Expert: Our studies show that the amount of mild/asymptomatic cases have been vastly undercounted, and we estimate the CFR to be around .66 (some other experts have given a range from .125-.66.

Me: Well, experts feel that the CFR is probably less than 1. If we do the math, this makes the Imperial projection of 60million/3million dead implausible.

"Taking it out of context, bro."

Oh, I've already admitted to you in that discussion that "revised" was a bad choice of words. I should've articulated it as, "Imperial revised the projection based on changing circumstances." My issue with Lord Neil is he doesn't elaborate what new data points he's working with that would change those projections. From his own paper in the Lancet, the revised .66 CFR should give revision to the initial 2.4 million dead projection. That was working off the Wuhan CFR (meaning, yes, it did not consider overrun health care services as increasing the CFR).

The team’s analysis presents estimates of the CFR for three bands of symptom severity. In Hubei province in China, only people with relatively severe symptoms are being prioritised for testing. Their central estimate of CFR for these cases is 18%, but with high uncertainty.

Dr Ilaria Dorigatti, co-author of the report, said: “The estimates published in today’s report rely on limited data and the next few weeks will provide valuable information on the outcome of current infections, which will allow us to refine our estimates and fill our knowledge gaps on the severity of this new virus.”

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 06:39 PM

We went from 300 to 3850 in like ten days. It honestly doesn't sound like that high a number.

We're currently at 600ish a day, but we're still not at the peak. Assuming NYC has hit a turning point, the deaths will still rise for another week. So we'll hit 1k at least, but probably higher. Then you have other cities like New Orleans where the death rate is going to go up very soon. Chicago and Detroit too. So yeah, a daily average of 2k seems pretty inevitable by the end of April and it will probably be higher because places will see their health care system overrun. People think its already bad but you can clearly see the worst is yet to come.

hater

03-31-2020, 06:41 PM

100 to 200 thousand dead americans with trump as president

without trump = 10k deaths TOPS

bullshit

where would Shitler pull the ventilators from? her pussy?

hater

03-31-2020, 06:43 PM

We're currently at 600ish a day, but we're still not at the peak. Assuming NYC has hit a turning point, the deaths will still rise for another week. So we'll hit 1k at least, but probably higher. Then you have other cities like New Orleans where the death rate is going to go up very soon. Chicago and Detroit too. So yeah, a daily average of 2k seems pretty inevitable by the end of April and it will probably be higher because places will see their health care system overrun. People think its already bad but you can clearly see the worst is yet to come.

Some models suow US peak at 3,500 deaths a day for 12 days

hopefully that does not happen

as I said before that would be a Sept 11 every day for weeks

spurraider21

03-31-2020, 06:43 PM

bullshit

where would Shitler pull the ventilators from? her pussy?
probably would have taken action sooner (social distancing measures, etc) and not tried to downplay it as "just a flu that would go away like a miracle" until mid march

baseline bum

03-31-2020, 06:44 PM

boutons_deux

03-31-2020, 06:45 PM

Cases and deaths increasing everywhere

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 06:46 PM

bullshit

where would Shitler pull the ventilators from? her pussy?

any fucking lab monkey would have kept the pandemic team together
and kept personnel/experts in china

then

in DECEMBER

the lab monkey would have closed washington state- allowed the experts to take over
and

STEP ASIDE and let the experts quarantine washington and maybe new york

by JANUARY 10th-15th - and no later

we would be watching nba action right now

hater

03-31-2020, 06:48 PM

probably would have taken action sooner (social distancing measures, etc) and not tried to downplay it as "just a flu that would go away like a miracle" until mid march

you are talking about the same person that blamed Benghazi to a youtube video and got our ambassador killed?

NYC would be burning down right now tbqh

hater

03-31-2020, 06:49 PM

thank God Trump won tbqh

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 06:50 PM

you are talking about the same person that blamed Benghazi to a youtube video and got our ambassador killed?

NYC would be burning down right now tbqh

cmon bro

thought you were better than that

btw- trying to figure out why you call boris “porton”

cant figure it out?

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 06:50 PM

So now I also told you population density didn't matter? I literally said the opposite.

Florida is looking pretty bad to be honest. California isn't warm weather. Australia I honestly have no idea because I have no idea what they're more functional government is doing to prevent the spread. Haven't kept up with them. Mexico is looking pretty bad though, and they have warm weather too. Spain isn't exactly cold and they're not doing well. And of course, Louisiana.

But anyway, its obvious to me that I've hurt your feelings somewhere along the way. I'm sorry for that, MP. Just don't take my words out of context and we'll be fine.

Also, you want to know what slows the spread down? Social distancing and government mandated actions of the like. Thats why the curve bends. Not because of some warm air.

Here's a hint, if you can't go back and find a place where I said something you think i said, I didn't say. I don't need to imply things, I'm pretty direct in what I mean. If you don't understand, ask me to clarify. But don't ascribe your bullshit to me, thanks.

"Warm" in this case is about 60 degrees. From the study which you obviously haven't read:

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/news/2020/Researchers-Predict-Potential-Spread-and-Seasonality-for-COVID-19-Based-on-Climate-Where-Virus-Appears-to-Thrive.html

Aside from Northern California, California is pretty much Spring and Summer all year around with constant sunshine. Florida projects to be under hospital capacity over the peak:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

And yes, that projection can quickly shift with a couple of inflection points, but Florida didn't spike anywhere near Michigan levels, despite having a larger population. Louisiana had this thing called Mardi Gras. I take it you think I believe that warm weather will just kill the virus. No. And even warm weather regions can have things working against them, like population density, health of the population, health care efficacy etc, but if "bad" means New York, I don't see Florida, Texas, California being anywhere near that bad.

Why do you think Mexico is looking bad? (in any event, it's hard to get reliable data from places like Mexico, India, and such, which is why I reference Australia). And Australia was crowding Bondi Beach like two weeks ago.

slick'81

03-31-2020, 06:50 PM

I know initial estimates were much higher but man 100-240k still seems like a fuckload considering where we're at right now.

What percentage of that will be NY/NJ? Are they expecting a bunch of other "hotspots" to pop up? What's the outlook for TX?

Damn my dude! Arent you watching the news? What state you hiding out in fkla?

slick'81

03-31-2020, 06:52 PM

https://covid19.healthdata.org

need to stop smoking asap d

hater

03-31-2020, 06:53 PM

cmon bro

thought you were better than that

btw- trying to figure out why you call boris “porton”

cant figure it out?

She swung and missed w Benghazi. She would have gotten us all killed

facts

Porton Downs is where they have a lab where they had Novichok which is the poison that was allegedly used by Russia to poison Skrippal and daughter

BTW where are they???

I think the poster by name of Chris called Bojo Porton Johnson :lmao

apalisoc_9

03-31-2020, 06:54 PM

Uh, we're going to have 100k dead more than likely by the end of April. So yeah, not hitting that mark by the end of the year would be an amazing miracle.

I recall reading that Italy would reach those numbers by the end of June, but that's extremely unlikely considering we haven't seen an increase in new cases and deaths the last 5-8 days. It's been hovering around 600-900 deaths with cases in Italy dropping in the last couple of days. I can't think of any other city with a similar density as NY that's experiencing a massive outbreak and even if two or three states start to break out out similar to NYC and NJ..It won't be enough to pass 100k death by end of April. That's sounds like a worst case scenario.

apalisoc_9

03-31-2020, 06:56 PM

Some models suow US peak at 3,500 deaths a day for 12 days

hopefully that does not happen

as I said before that would be a Sept 11 every day for weeks

Nigg, you calling that or what? :lol

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 06:56 PM

We're already over 700 just today. :depressed

Yeah, exponential growth is a bitch. The doubling time for deaths right now is less than 3 days. I'm assuming this flattens out within a couple of weeks, but even if you assume a conservative 4 doublings in 2 weeks that puts at over 5k a day! Lets hope it bends before then because JFC thats horrendous.

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 06:57 PM

She swung and missed w Benghazi. She would have gotten us all killed

facts

Porton Downs is where they have a lab where they had Novichok which is the poison that was allegedly used by Russia to poison Skrippal and daughter

BTW where are they???

I think the poster by name of Chris called Bojo Porton Johnson :lmao

lol

nah

years and years of benghazi hearings and STILL could NOT nail her on shit

so either she was semi-clean

or

repukes are really stupid

neither of which makes her worse than this idiot traitor you defend

- but i hope you are starting to see the light

FkLA

03-31-2020, 07:00 PM

We went from 300 to 3850 in like ten days. It honestly doesn't sound like that high a number.

Yeah, I guess not. That figure seems really scary on it's own. Then you realize the flu kills 24,000-62,000 Americans per year. The regular flu would seem a lot scarier to most of us too if CNN covered it non-stop and had a death count ticker.

I'm not trying to downplay COVID or compare the common flu to a novel virus, obviously. Just saying that the amount/type of coverage makes it seem a lot scarier than what it already is.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 07:00 PM

I recall reading that Italy would reach those numbers by the end of June, but that's extremely unlikely considering we haven't seen an increase in new cases and deaths the last 5-8 days. It's been hovering around 600-900 deaths with cases in Italy dropping in the last couple of days. I can't think of any other city with a similar density as NY that's experiencing a massive outbreak and even if two or three states start to break out out similar to NYC and NJ..It won't be enough to pass 100k death by end of April. That's sounds like a worst case scenario.

NYC deaths haven't peaked yet. We're at least a week away from that and that's if the current level of cases doesn't rise much more. If the system collapses, the death rate will go up even more as well.

None of this is worst case scenario. This is with our current distancing, but even with the current situation the worst case is that the healthcare system just collapses. You have a lot of doctors and nurses at elevated risk and once they start going down then how do you even put people on ventilators without the people capable of doing it? These people are already working insane hours under insane work loads. Its already bad, but the room for it to get much much much worse is there.

Honestly, its upsetting to me when I see the videos of the heatlhcare workers online and that the entire nation isn't mad as hell about this. You guys up in Canada are handling it way better, but down here everyone should be mad AF because we've completely failed the healthcare workers.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 07:01 PM

Yeah, I guess not. That figure seems really scary on it's own. Then you realize the flu kills 24,000-62,000 Americans per year. The regular flu would seem a lot scarier to most of us too if CNN covered it non-stop and had a death count ticker.

I'm not trying to downplay COVID or compare the common flu to a novel virus, obviously. Just saying that the amount/type of coverage makes it seem a lot scarier than what it already is.

I mean, if it kills that many with us undertaking all these measures then imagine if we just went about our business like we do with the flu? If anything people should be more worried about the flu each year. At least enough to get a fucking vaccine. You can usually get them for free at a lot of places.

hater

03-31-2020, 07:07 PM

yup even with total shutdowns and burning our economy to a crisp, this still killed 100,000 minimum

had we done nothing we woulda lost millions

Thread

03-31-2020, 07:11 PM

It's pure "hedging your bets" my friend. Classic business move, from a business man. He's just having his team support it. Anything less than 100k Trump will be sing to the heavens and gloat. It's kind of gross honestly. So morally bankrupt.

How's come when I said that a couple days ago, or, just yesterday I was sent down with the sodomites and called every name in the book? You bring it up an hour ago and it's still a-okay.

What, I'm an Indian at the fuckin' door?

apalisoc_9

03-31-2020, 07:12 PM

Yeah, I guess not. That figure seems really scary on it's own. Then you realize the flu kills 24,000-62,000 Americans per year. The regular flu would seem a lot scarier to most of us too if CNN covered it non-stop and had a death count ticker.

I'm not trying to downplay COVID or compare the common flu to a novel virus, obviously. Just saying that the amount/type of coverage makes it seem a lot scarier than what it already is.

I mean at this current rate and growth....America should be dancing in joy if it the number is 200k deaths by the end of the year. That's a significant difference from 60k.

The issue really is the rate of infection. The flu can't collapse the Health System, but COVID19 can. If the growth continues and it kills the healthcare system...You could be looking at 10X the death numbers of a flu.

boutons_deux

03-31-2020, 07:13 PM

same true in CA and Denmark

Social distancing is slowing the coronavirus in Seattle. But it’s not enough,

It estimated that by March 18,

each newly infected person (http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6821542-Social-Distancing-Mobility-Reductions-Reduced.html) was transmitting the virus to an average of 1.4 other people —

down from 2.7 in late February,

before bans on gatherings and other measures were put in place.

But to start reducing the growth in new cases, that figure would have to fall below one.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-30/seattle-coronavirus-transmission-social-distancing?cm_ven=ExactTarget&cm_cat=Today%27s+Headlines+3%2f...+-+Osys+Campaign++%2321573-1585655703580&cm_pla=All+Subscribers&cm_ite=https%3a%2f%2fwww.latimes.com%2fworld-nation%2fstory%2f2020-03-30%2fseattle-coronavirus-transmission-social-distancing&[email protected]&cm_ainfo=&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute1%%&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute2%%&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute3%%&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute4%%&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute5%% (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-30/seattle-coronavirus-transmission-social-distancing?cm_ven=ExactTarget&cm_cat=Today%27s+Headlines+3%2f...+-+Osys+Campaign++%2321573-1585655703580&cm_pla=All+Subscribers&cm_ite=https%3a%2f%2fwww.latimes.com%2fworld-nation%2fstory%2f2020-03-30%2fseattle-coronavirus-transmission-social-distancing&[email protected]&cm_ainfo=&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute1%%&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute2%%&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute3%%&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute4%%&%%__AdditionalEmailAttribute5%%)

Thread

03-31-2020, 07:13 PM

100 to 200 thousand dead americans with trump as president

without trump = 10k deaths TOPS

It would only seem that way, Homer, because without Trump the 100 to 200 thousand dead americans WOULD be treated like 10k.

Now shut up & bend over.

Thread

03-31-2020, 07:18 PM

Reck

03-31-2020, 07:20 PM

bullshit

where would Shitler pull the ventilators from? her pussy?

Yeah I wouldn't say 10k but definitely not 100k to 200k. Probably around 35-40k seems more likely without Trump.

Those 3 wasted months from January through March did us in good.

Thread

03-31-2020, 07:21 PM

Yeah I wouldn't say 10k but definitely not 100k to 200k. Probably around 35-40k seems more likely without Trump.

Those 3 wasted months from January through March did us in good.

You know, Recky, I liked you better when you was bent over.

slick'81

03-31-2020, 07:21 PM

Yeah I wouldn't say 10k but definitely not 100k to 200k. Probably around 35-40k seems more likely without Trump.

Those 3 wasted months from January through March did us in good.

Pure negligence,tbh

FkLA

03-31-2020, 07:26 PM

I mean at this current rate and growth....America should be dancing in enjoy if it the number is 200k deaths by the end of the year. That's a significant difference from 60k.

The issue really is the rate of infection. The flu can't collapse the Health System, but COVID19 can. If the growth continues and it kills the healthcare system...You could be looking at 10X the death numbers of a flu.

Well, the growth can't continue. It'll peak at some point and the country is big enough geographically to where all the peaks won't happen at same time, which will help.

But yeah, I'm not an idiot. I know that just the simple fact that it's novel makes it a lot worse than the common flu. I was strictly talking about the "scariness" of the 100,000-240,000 figure. I think it becomes less scary when you compare it to something most of us don't fear instead of just looking at the figure on its own.

Reck

03-31-2020, 07:26 PM

You know, Recky, I liked you better when you was bent over.

Where's the fun in that? You need a rebel. Derp is more your speed if you want a permanent bend it like Beckham type. :lol

RandomGuy

03-31-2020, 07:28 PM

Not[h]ing shows ignorance more than cherry picking certain studies because they conform to your world view rather than taking a holistic approach with all available data/research. IMO.

Eyup.

Interesting to play with the numbers and models available though. I would say "fun" but the fact that we are talking about something were so many is going to die, saps that right out.

One thing for sure, we are finally going to put some effort into preparing for the next pandemic.

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 07:31 PM

It would only seem that way, Homer, because without Trump the 100 to 200 thousand dead americans WOULD be treated like 10k.

Now shut up & bend over.

you turned your back on your country

pretty easily i might add

wont waste more time with you

Thread

03-31-2020, 07:32 PM

you turned your back on your country

pretty easily i might add

wont waste more time with you

You got to be kidding me, I'm on your ignore list now? That's wrong, Homer. GD you.

hater

03-31-2020, 07:32 PM

Called it!

Mainstream Media now talking about US population all wearing masks once they let us out

CALLED IT!

:tu

slick'81

03-31-2020, 07:33 PM

Called it!

Mainstream Media now talking about US population all wearing masks once they let us out

CALLED IT!

:tu

most people already are

Thread

03-31-2020, 07:34 PM

Called it!

Mainstream Media now talking about US population all wearing masks once they let us out

CALLED IT!

:tu

Where the hell we gonna get 'em?

Or, is a scarf really an option?

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 07:35 PM

Yeah I wouldn't say 10k but definitely not 100k to 200k. Probably around 35-40k seems more likely without Trump.

Those 3 wasted months from January through March did us in good.

Thanks for pulling numbers out of your ass for us.

hater

03-31-2020, 07:36 PM

Where the hell we gonna get 'em?

Or, is a scarf really an option?

making masks is easy and cheap

we will all have plenty of masks in 4 months when we can wipe our ass and come out the house

spurraider21

03-31-2020, 07:36 PM

Well, the growth can't continue. It'll peak at some point and the country is big enough geographically to where all the peaks won't happen at same time, which will help.

But yeah, I'm not an idiot. I know that just the simple fact that it's novel makes it a lot worse than the common flu. I was strictly talking about the "scariness" of the 100,000-240,000 figure. I think it becomes less scary when you compare it to something most of us don't fear instead of just looking at the figure on its own.
gotta facture in all the extreme measures we have taken, and that we are still very likely to have 6 figure deaths. imagine we treated it like the flu...

DarrinS

03-31-2020, 07:37 PM

need to stop smoking asap d

I ain't getting this virus. If I lived in NYC, I'd be shittin bricks, tho.

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 07:38 PM

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1245102448835874816?s=20

Reck

03-31-2020, 07:38 PM

Thanks for pulling numbers out of your ass for us.

Did Fox News Not showed today's presser? Or did they only tuned in while Trump was babbling? These aren't random numbers.

slick'81

03-31-2020, 07:39 PM

I ain't getting this virus. If I lived in NYC, I'd be shittin bricks, tho.

:tu

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 07:41 PM

Thanks for pulling numbers out of your ass for us.

of course you WOULD thank another man for pulling something out of his ass for you

of course

baseline bum

03-31-2020, 07:41 PM

I ain't getting this virus. If I lived in NYC, I'd be shittin bricks, tho.

Dude, 40%+ of us are probably getting it this year. Just gotta hope by the time we get it if it we have bad reactions maybe there will be known treatments.

DMC

03-31-2020, 07:42 PM

Everyone here will die, eventually.

spurraider21

03-31-2020, 07:43 PM

Everyone here will die, eventually.
https://images.ladbible.com/thumbnail?type=jpeg&url=http://beta.ems.ladbiblegroup.com/s3/content/298c64455bd9639ddc144101363d9ab8.png&quality=70&height=700

TDMVPDPOY

03-31-2020, 07:43 PM

china has been hiding numbers, who gets infected and dies from it

now the west has numbers of children also getting convit and passing away....something the chinese govt didnt disclose

so what now?

slick'81

03-31-2020, 07:44 PM

china has been hiding numbers, who gets infected and dies from it

now the west has numbers of children also getting convit and passing away....something the chinese govt didnt disclose

so what now?

we all die?

Reck

03-31-2020, 07:45 PM

I ain't getting this virus. If I lived in NYC, I'd be shittin bricks, tho.

How old are you? If you're in the 50 age range you're probably fine if you do get it.

Hospitals are fine enough turning you around if you have it but dont have the more serious symptoms. They'll tell you to self quanrantine and literally sweat the virus out.

boutons_deux

03-31-2020, 07:45 PM

4 days ago

The next coronavirus hotspots

Confirmed COVID-19 cases in U.S. metro areas

https://www.axios.com/americas-coronavirus-cities-outbreak-5f22e933-42f1-464e-a68d-5f8ee0923fda.html

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 07:47 PM

Did Fox News Not showed today's presser? Or did they only tuned in while Trump was babbling? These aren't random numbers.

Applying those numbers to a unknown "non Trump" timeline is still pulling numbers out your ass.

I didn't know those numbers were mentioned though.

RandomGuy

03-31-2020, 07:51 PM

Dude, 40%+ of us are probably getting it this year. Just gotta hope by the time we get it if it we have bad reactions maybe there will be known treatments.

... and enough medical capacity to treat.

RandomGuy

03-31-2020, 07:52 PM

Everyone here will die, eventually.

No-take McGurk strikes again.

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 07:52 PM

hater

03-31-2020, 07:52 PM

Everyone here will die, eventually.

and 2-5% of posters in this thread will die of corona this year

good thing there are not even 30 posters in here :lmao

DarrinS

03-31-2020, 07:56 PM

How old are you? If you're in the 50 age range you're probably fine if you do get it.

Hospitals are fine enough turning you around if you have it but dont have the more serious symptoms. They'll tell you to self quanrantine and literally sweat the virus out.

I'm 50, with no underlying health issues. But, I've heard of cases where young-ish relatively healthy people have died. I don't think anybody knows exactly how any given individual will respond.

slick'81

03-31-2020, 07:59 PM

I'm 50, with no underlying health issues. But, I've heard of cases where young-ish relatively healthy people have died. I don't think anybody knows exactly how any given individual will respond.

Anymore music to lighten the mood d?

spurraider21

03-31-2020, 08:03 PM

L.A. Bureaucrats Shut Down Restaurants for Selling Groceries Without a Permit

https://reason.com/2020/03/31/los-angeles-bureaucrats-barbara-ferrer-shut-down-restaurants-for-selling-groceries-without-a-permit/

Regulations from the top down just have away of hindering our response to this pandemic.
i mean generally, i'd back the city on this. but in these times, i think they should be making more exceptions (but there has to be some, minimal degree of oversight, tbh). hopefully there's an expedited review and stopgap solution

hater

03-31-2020, 08:06 PM

I already called ppl will not stay at home if they have nothing to eat

already there are lootings in Italy and South America due to quarantine

US needs to allow ppl to make a living or there will be masses on the streets

TDMVPDPOY

03-31-2020, 08:13 PM

has it been proven if u get covit and recover, u immune from getting covit again??

but then again ur lungs would be fucked up once and u be living with some sort of weak ass immune system...

best to go get covit now while there are beds or else u be laying somewhere in a makeshift hospital with thousands of ppl?

DarrinS

03-31-2020, 08:18 PM

Anymore music to lighten the mood d?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ncw8feCHK1g

Blake

03-31-2020, 08:19 PM

Everyone here will die, eventually.

https://images.ladbible.com/thumbnail?type=jpeg&url=http://beta.ems.ladbiblegroup.com/s3/content/298c64455bd9639ddc144101363d9ab8.png&quality=70&height=700

:lol

slick'81

03-31-2020, 08:20 PM

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 08:21 PM

You got to be kidding me, I'm on your ignore list now? That's wrong, Homer. GD you.

nah - i dont do ignore list - but you are TOO far gone culbear

ill reserve my right to bust your balls when trump goes down

diego

03-31-2020, 08:30 PM

i know a 44 year old, and two 42 year olds that got it.

two of them are athletes, national team level. the 42 year old is in an induced coma for a week now. the 44 year old that never goes to the doctor, asked to be taken in because of the discomfort and has been on oxygen since going in 4 days ago. the other 42 year old is the 44 year olds wife and she went in last night, she fainted in the hospital this morning after going to the bathroom.

I dont know what strain is where, but I see a lot of people who seem to be irrationally confident regarding their physical health.

Winehole23

03-31-2020, 08:31 PM

An Illinois infant diagnosed with COVID-19 may be the first US baby killed by the pandemic, though the cause of death is unknown, according to a local report

NY PostYou make a good point.

The de facto US policy to date of undertesting means CoVID-19 mortality is falling through the cracks.

Many cases are not pursued to medical certainty..

Our total testing to date compares to 3-4 days of testing in Germany.

hater

03-31-2020, 08:31 PM

on some positive note

props to these 3 countries that are kicking coronas ass:

Australia, Israel, Norway :tu :tu

keeping it together :tu

honorable mentions (they tried hard):
Germany, South Korea

everyone else is gonna get plastered

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 08:39 PM

Probably the best news we'll get this week. New York city's confirmed case count has been trending downward since 3/24. Hospitalizations have been trending downward over the past couple of days. Death count will of course likely to continue to increase because of the data lag and the fact the virus takes about 17 days to kill its most vulnerable patients.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Winehole23

03-31-2020, 08:44 PM

Death is a lagging indicator and social distancing works.

We knew this already.

hater

03-31-2020, 08:46 PM

Death is a lagging indicator and social distancing works.

We knew this already.

yup

also our hospitals being overwhelmed not by 2x not 3x not 4x but 8x or more

we alreqdy knew this

its like a tsunami

theres a big difference between a 3 meter tsunami and a 15 meter tsunami

slick'81

03-31-2020, 08:48 PM

ElNono

03-31-2020, 08:54 PM

Now you niglets know how the Taj Majal in Atlantic City felt, tbh...

ElNono

03-31-2020, 08:54 PM

Everyone here will die, eventually.

Called it

Thread

03-31-2020, 08:58 PM

nah - i dont do ignore list - but you are TOO far gone culbear

ill reserve my right to bust your balls when trump goes down

Sounds fine, Homer!

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 09:02 PM

Death is a lagging indicator and social distancing works.

We knew this already.

Yes, but I'm glad to see some progress because there seems to be a lot of knuckleheads not staying home and not socially distancing. What is going to be required to beat this thing runs contrary to the "yeeeehaaawww American individualist spirit." And that's worrisome.

Winehole23

03-31-2020, 09:12 PM

Winehole23

03-31-2020, 09:14 PM

Called itDeath, taxes and wearisome pop culture references.

boutons_deux

03-31-2020, 09:16 PM

has it been proven if u get covit and recover, u immune from getting covit again??

they are looking at that right now.

In fact, "serology covid-19" work is hot research topic, looking for covid-19 antibodies in recovered victims.

and how long the provide immunity. weeks? months? years?

"serology covid-19" has many hits

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/200228-Serology-testing-COVID.pdf

Winehole23

03-31-2020, 09:25 PM

Now you niglets know how the Taj Majal in Atlantic City felt, tbh...if I'm not mistaken, you've been through it before, so you can rub it in.

I will only point out the last great recession was only eleven years ago.

The quickening of the pace of systemic failure is worrisome for a fifty year old man.

hater

03-31-2020, 09:30 PM

God Bless Mother Russia

https://twitter.com/rusembusa/status/1245077657785708547?s=21

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 09:35 PM

Well, there's no shortage of jackasses. Cheers to you in the time of pestilence.

Stay safe!

Example: YEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAW

1245175178730102786

ChumpDumper

03-31-2020, 09:46 PM

Example: YEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAW

1245175178730102786:lol Matty isn't gonna make it through lockdown.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 09:48 PM

New York city's confirmed case count has been trending downward since 3/24. Hospitalizations have been trending downward over the past couple of days.

Bro I'm not trying to pick on you but this is not right. Both are increasing. The rate is dropping, but the total trend is still up.

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 09:50 PM

:lol Matty isn't gonna make it through lockdown.

Conservative twitter has been darkly entertaining in these times. It's funny. They'll say, "Eh, this is no big deal. Just a flu." And then post articles theorizing that China might be underreporting their death toll (which is probably true) by 100x or whatever, which would make this virus a pretty big fuckin' deal.

MannyIsGod

03-31-2020, 09:51 PM

Example: YEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAW

1245175178730102786

What an asshole.

ChumpDumper

03-31-2020, 09:52 PM

Conservative twitter has been darkly entertaining in these times. It's funny. They'll say, "Eh, this is no big deal. Just a flu." And then post articles theorizing that China might be underreporting their death toll (which is probably true) by 100x or whatever, which would make this virus a pretty big fuckin' deal.It's nothing, but it's definitely a PRC/DNC plot!

GAustex

03-31-2020, 09:53 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ncw8feCHK1g
that was nice
a brief respite from the cruel world

Spurtacular

03-31-2020, 09:54 PM

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 09:55 PM

God Bless Mother Russia

https://twitter.com/rusembusa/status/1245077657785708547?s=21

i would decline help

or blow that bird out of the sky if it approached our shore

hater

03-31-2020, 09:56 PM

i would decline help

or blow that bird out of the sky if it approached our shore

that bird will save a few american lives

god bless The Bear

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 09:56 PM

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 09:59 PM

i would decline help

or blow that bird out of the sky if it approached our shore

That would be moronic. You should probably never vote again with that type of decision making.

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 10:00 PM

that bird will save a few american lives

god bless The Bear

nope

a true american president would never allow russian intervention into our country- especially during a national emergency

just kindly thank them and keep those spies out

but the russian asset is probably just following orders

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 10:01 PM

Bro I'm not trying to pick on you but this is not right. Both are increasing. The rate is dropping, but the total trend is still up.

I'm not following. Case count had an exponential rise from 3-9 to 3-20 where new cases peaked at 3600. Since then, new cases have been below that peak (i.e. we haven't seen additional inflection point(s), ex. 3600 to 4000 to 4500):

https://imgur.com/a/QH3BiNz

It's obviously too early to see how hospitalizations are trending because it's likely many people are just being hospitalized now that tested positive a week or so ago.

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 10:03 PM

That would be moronic. You should probably never vote again with that type of decision making.

only an idiot president would allow it

we arent supposed to be a helpless third world country that needs our mortal enemies help

but with this traitor president he would allow our enemies inside while our guard is down during a natl emergency

stupid americans have just completely surrendered our sovereignty and sanity

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 10:06 PM

Anyone see that 200 us navy sailors got the virus on a ship with 4000 sailors?

fuck

navy not taking action and this will turn into another shit-show!

hater

03-31-2020, 10:07 PM

only an idiot president would allow it

we arent supposed to be a helpless third world country that needs our mortal enemies help

but with this traitor president he would allow our enemies inside while our guard is down during a natl emergency

stupid americans have just completely surrendered our sovereignty and sanity

we are obviously a helpless 3rd world country

we had to beg China for ventilators and PPE, they agreed only if Orangegutan stops saying Chinese Virus. he complied

Putin offered a plane full of PPE. we took it

hater

03-31-2020, 10:09 PM

Anyone see that 200 us navy sailors got the virus on a ship with 4000 sailors?

fuck

navy not taking action and this will turn into another shit-show!

they are not. warmonger Esper already said to the admiral “Stick to the chain of command”

to be fair, sweeen Russia and china doing same thing

SnakeBoy

03-31-2020, 10:09 PM

It's obviously too early to see how hospitalizations are trending because it's likely many people are just being hospitalized now that tested positive a week or so ago.

Just released study from Washington showed average time from first symptoms to hospitalization was 7 days. Small sample size but is inline with the other small studies from China.

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 10:10 PM

It's funny if you go with overstating positions, perhaps. You can reasonably have the opinion that this is fear mongering and that powers are pulling strings and/or causing havoc.

I don't get this. What would "the elites" get out of fear mongering?

"They'll use this 'crisis' as an excuse to instill fascism and totalitarianism!"

Our constitution guards against such overreach (4th amendment).

I've heard this, too: "It's all part of a globalist plan."

This pandemic is pretty much guaran-fuckin-teed to sour a lot of people on globalism.

"Libs are using this to hurt Trump."

A fact of political nature is that approval ratings have ALWAYS gone up during a national crisis. We're seeing that here. This crisis also gives Trump a shitload more fodder to use on his campaign trail regarding open borders, trade with China, globalization, nationalism, etc. I lean Left, and I fear this pandemic will mostly benefit fascist nationalist movements. They pretty much have their rhetorical and political "smoking gun" now.

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 10:11 PM

we are obviously a helpless 3rd world country

we had to beg China for ventilators and PPE, they agreed only if Orangegutan stops saying Chinese Virus. he complied

Putin offered a plane full of PPE. we took it

what could be better for putin than to be gifted the upper hand while the us is weakened?

im sure that absolutely nothing can go wrong here

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 10:12 PM

only an idiot president would allow it

we arent supposed to be a helpless third world country that needs our mortal enemies help

but with this traitor president he would allow our enemies inside while our guard is down during a natl emergency

stupid americans have just completely surrendered our sovereignty and sanity

What we are supposed to be is irrelevant to the position we are currently in.

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 10:13 PM

they are not. warmonger Esper already said to the admiral “Stick to the chain of command”

to be fair, sweeen Russia and china doing same thing

fuck

4000 semen bout to die on a petri dish

how many days for those 200 infected to infect the entire ship you think?

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 10:15 PM

What we are supposed to be is irrelevant to the position we are currently in.

we have an idiot who thinks just like you do

what could possibly go wrong when we collectively bend over before our mortal enemy ?

usa went to shit fast
thanks republicans

hater

03-31-2020, 10:17 PM

fuck

4000 semen bout to die on a petri dish

how many days for those 200 infected to infect the entire ship you think?

doubt many will die. this is no aids niga

im sure a few will die maybe just a handful

but it is a shame

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 10:17 PM

we have an idiot who thinks just like you do

what could possibly go wrong when we collectively bend over before our mortal enemy ?

usa went to shit fast
thanks republicans

Think China will buy us up after this, bro?

Mark Celibate

03-31-2020, 10:19 PM

Yes, but I'm glad to see some progress because there seems to be a lot of knuckleheads not staying home and not socially distancing. What is going to be required to beat this thing runs contrary to the "yeeeehaaawww American individualist spirit." And that's worrisome.

I think the big reason is that nobody knows how long the lockdown is going to be.

tbh I don't really care as I'm more introverted by nature. Whether this lasts one more month or 18 months, I'll be content. But then you have the more extroverted types who get conflicting information. If everyone knew for sure this was only going to last 2-3 weeks, then I think they'd be fine quarantining for that time. But once people here that this is going to go on forever, they just don't have the discipline to spend their lives on "glorified house arrest" which I sort of understand. But even then, I don't know too many people that are seriously violating this rule. They may go out to public parks or hangouts with small groups of friends, which may be pushing it, but considering the circumstances I'm not ready to march them in front of the firing squad. And of course there's always "It's the JOOOOOOOOOOS" group who are going to think it's a hoax and press on anyway. But I think that's a very small minority

The real problem, atleast in my group, are the people who unintentionally are being reckless because they're not paying attention. Some chick I know legitimately has no clue what's going on, as she just flew to Florida for a Spring Break trip rofl. Ignorance is bliss sometimes

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 10:20 PM

doubt many will die. this is no aids niga

im sure a few will die maybe just a handful

but it is a shame

you kidding?

guam is their only near port

guam has 6

6

icu units?

6 ventilators divided by 3-4000 sick sailors = ?

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 10:21 PM

Think China will buy us up after this, bro?

maybe

when they find out about all those bats in austin!

boutons_deux

03-31-2020, 10:22 PM

some joint base in SA was ordered by DoD to stop posting the infection/death rates on the base.

Spurs Homer

03-31-2020, 10:24 PM

some joint base in SA was ordered by DoD to stop posting the infection/death rates on the base.

where was this...in russia?
wtf?

DarrinS

03-31-2020, 10:25 PM

some joint base in SA was ordered by DoD to stop posting the infection/death rates on the base.

Link?

midnightpulp

03-31-2020, 10:30 PM

I think the big reason is that nobody knows how long the lockdown is going to be.

tbh I don't really care as I'm more introverted by nature. Whether this lasts one more month or 18 months, I'll be content. But then you have the more extroverted types who get conflicting information. If everyone knew for sure this was only going to last 2-3 weeks, then I think they'd be fine quarantining for that time. But once people here that this is going to go on forever, they just don't have the discipline to spend their lives on "glorified house arrest" which I sort of understand. But even then, I don't know too many people that are seriously violating this rule. They may go out to public parks or hangouts with small groups of friends, which may be pushing it, but considering the circumstances I'm not ready to march them in front of the firing squad. And of course there's always "It's the JOOOOOOOOOOS" group who are going to think it's a hoax and press on anyway. But I think that's a very small minority

The real problem, atleast in my group, are the people who unintentionally are being reckless because they're not paying attention. Some chick I know legitimately has no clue what's going on, as she just flew to Florida for a Spring Break trip rofl. Ignorance is bliss sometimes

Yep. The worst feeling in the world is uncertainty, and until we get better data, we're spitting in the wind with all these projections. It's good you know a lot of people doing the right thing. It sucks, but it's something we have to do.

Nathan89

03-31-2020, 10:40 PM

we have an idiot who thinks just like you do

what could possibly go wrong when we collectively bend over before our mortal enemy ?

usa went to shit fast
thanks republicans

Russia is not a concerning country to me tbh. China is our "mortal enemy".

hater

03-31-2020, 10:48 PM

Corona just killed General Ematt :cry

https://twitter.com/spaceshipsporn/status/1245011687398354945?s=21

Reck

03-31-2020, 10:58 PM

Coronavirus is to Hollywood what HIV/AIDS was to the porn industry.

RIP guy I didn't know or cared about.

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:01 PM

hater

03-31-2020, 11:02 PM

https://twitter.com/pauldashworth/status/1245080753198809088?s=21

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:03 PM

i would decline help

or blow that bird out of the sky if it approached our shore

This would be as stupid as declining the WHO tests... you get the help you can take, lives are at stake.

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:04 PM

I don't get this. What would "the elites" get out of fear mongering?

"They'll use this 'crisis' as an excuse to instill fascism and totalitarianism!"

Our constitution guards against such overreach (4th amendment).

I've heard this, too: "It's all part of a globalist plan."

This pandemic is pretty much guaran-fuckin-teed to sour a lot of people on globalism.

"Libs are using this to hurt Trump."

A fact of political nature is that approval ratings have ALWAYS gone up during a national crisis. We're seeing that here. This crisis also gives Trump a shitload more fodder to use on his campaign trail regarding open borders, trade with China, globalization, nationalism, etc. I lean Left, and I fear this pandemic will mostly benefit fascist nationalist movements. They pretty much have their rhetorical and political "smoking gun" now.

Globalists ready to lose gazillion of dollars, because 4D chess.

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:06 PM

Russia is not a concerning country to me tbh. China is our "mortal enemy".

Neither really. China gotta keep buying dem treasuries.

Spurtacular

03-31-2020, 11:08 PM

Not reasonably, no. If you're paranoid, sure.

:cry The world is perfectly black and white :cry

0/10

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:12 PM

:cry The world is perfectly black and white :cry

0/10

No, it isn't. That doesn't mean paranoid talk is 'reasonable'.

Spurtacular

03-31-2020, 11:15 PM

No, it isn't. That doesn't mean paranoid talk is 'reasonable'.

What did I say just now that's so paranoid?

Go ahead.

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:18 PM

What did I say just now that's so paranoid?

Go ahead.

You can reasonably have the opinion that this is fear mongering and that powers are pulling strings and/or causing havoc.

Spurtacular

03-31-2020, 11:25 PM

So, there's no fear mongering or there's no power manipulation? What do you have a problem with?

apalisoc_9

03-31-2020, 11:34 PM

I don't get this. What would "the elites" get out of fear mongering?

"They'll use this 'crisis' as an excuse to instill fascism and totalitarianism!"

Our constitution guards against such overreach (4th amendment).

I've heard this, too: "It's all part of a globalist plan."

This pandemic is pretty much guaran-fuckin-teed to sour a lot of people on globalism.

"Libs are using this to hurt Trump."

A fact of political nature is that approval ratings have ALWAYS gone up during a national crisis. We're seeing that here. This crisis also gives Trump a shitload more fodder to use on his campaign trail regarding open borders, trade with China, globalization, nationalism, etc. I lean Left, and I fear this pandemic will mostly benefit fascist nationalist movements. They pretty much have their rhetorical and political "smoking gun" now.

Why are you responding seriously to him? He's the same bred as the matt guy you posted from twitter..Actually worse. :lol

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:35 PM

So, there's no fear mongering or there's no power manipulation? What do you have a problem with?

It's your paranoia, you're the one having to do the explaining here.

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:40 PM

I mean, anybody can say "I think it's perfectly reasonable that this is all a hoax concocted by luciferians".

No, it's not reasonable. I don't think there's much additional explanation needed.

Spurtacular

03-31-2020, 11:45 PM

It's your paranoia, you're the one having to do the explaining here.

:lol Stand down

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:47 PM

:lol Stand down

Do tell. Is this going to be like 9/11, where you fold again?

Spurtacular

03-31-2020, 11:50 PM

Do tell. Is this going to be like 9/11, where you fold again?

You didn't want to answer a question to support your claim. Lashing out is not going to change that.

Reck

03-31-2020, 11:53 PM

:lol Stand down

Kind of like you did when I dared you to find the post you said I posted but couldn't find. :lol derp

Blake

03-31-2020, 11:54 PM

:lol Stand down

You didn't want to answer a question to support your claim. Lashing out is not going to change that.

Is ElNono lashing out or standing down?

Blake

03-31-2020, 11:55 PM

Kind of like you did when I dared you to find the post you said I posted but couldn't find. :lol derp

Derp's daily dishonesty

ElNono

03-31-2020, 11:57 PM

You didn't want to answer a question to support your claim. Lashing out is not going to change that.

The whole thing is paranoid, I was clear from the get go.

You made the claim that you suspect "this is fear mongering and that powers are pulling strings and/or causing havoc", now back it up.

Don't worry, I'm not going anywhere, do share.

apalisoc_9

04-01-2020, 12:09 AM

Kind of like you did when I dared you to find the post you said I posted but couldn't find. :lol derp

Him, koriwhat and the crew basically make up fake spurstalk news.

:lol

ElNono

04-01-2020, 12:09 AM

RandomGuy

04-01-2020, 12:19 AM

I mean, I dunno, when there's a pest, people rich or poor from every country dying, economies everywhere temporarily shutting down, almost a million people sick, I don't think it's reasonable or normal that the first thought that comes to mind is that this is some sort of coordinated plot by some obscure power group playing 4D chess...

Such people have a need for something, anything, anyone to actually be in control. Some seek out a deity. Some seek out a shadowy cabal of THEM. Randomness is an anathema. They must have order.

The chaos of the world MUST be part of a larger order. They cling to that hope like a security blanket, albeit one they are not even aware of.

They never see that there is ONLY randomness. behind it all. Down to the very motes of existence. Random fields of motes that are and are not at the same time, pooling, swirling into a frothy sea of ever larger particles and then people, who are still only tiny flecks in a much larger maelstrom of randomness.

That terrifies people like Spurtacular. There is no control. No order.

Shit happens.

Spurtacular

04-01-2020, 12:21 AM

Kind of like you did when I dared you to find the post you said I posted but couldn't find. :lol derp

Post the thread. I'll go back and have a look-see for ya :tu

Spurtacular

04-01-2020, 12:22 AM

The whole thing is paranoid, I was clear from the get go.

You made the claim that you suspect "this is fear mongering and that powers are pulling strings and/or causing havoc", now back it up.

Don't worry, I'm not going anywhere, do share.

You don't want to explain what is wrong with that statement; you just want to brand it. I can't help you.

ElNono

04-01-2020, 12:29 AM

You don't want to explain what is wrong with that statement; you just want to brand it. I can't help you.

Already did, multiple times:

Globalists ready to lose gazillion of dollars, because 4D chess.

The whole thing is paranoid, I was clear from the get go.

I mean, I dunno, when there's a pest, people rich or poor from every country dying, economies everywhere temporarily shutting down, almost a million people sick, I don't think it's reasonable or normal that the first thought that comes to mind is that this is some sort of coordinated plot by some obscure power group playing 4D chess...

Unlike you, I don't run away from my posts.

Still waiting to hear how that's a perfectly reasonable position...

EDIT: If this is another one of your hilarious 'gut feelings', just say so...

DarrinS

04-01-2020, 12:32 AM

Good night. May you and your family be safe.

Chris

04-01-2020, 12:32 AM

https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/1245220899441094657?s=19

ElNono

04-01-2020, 12:33 AM

Such people have a need for something, anything, anyone to actually be in control. Some seek out a deity. Some seek out a shadowy cabal of THEM. Randomness is an anathema. They must have order.

The chaos of the world MUST be part of a larger order. They cling to that hope like a security blanket, albeit one they are not even aware of.

They never see that there is ONLY randomness. behind it all. Down to the very motes of existence. Random fields of motes that are and are not at the same time, pooling, swirling into a frothy sea of ever larger particles and then people, who are still only tiny flecks in a much larger maelstrom of randomness.

That terrifies people like Spurtacular. There is no control. No order.

Shit happens.

I don't think it's control/hopelessness, it's more like straight up paranoia. Cosmoretard is/was pretty much the same. It's the "I wanna believe" kind of thing.