Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[FkLA]

Welp, at least we can learn from what the Asian and European countries do so we don't commit the same mistakes.

[Chris]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1244685918809788417?s=19

[ChumpDumper]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1244685918809788417?s=19*ding*

Trump is a failure.

[weebo]

pgardn i've been talking to my friend from detroit again

he tested positive for covid-19 and it currently staying at home, though he says it didnt hit him hard and he's been asympomatic for 5 days.

he said he caught the plain flu back in december and his symptoms were worse then.

https://i.gyazo.com/737659652ae6cc53d90bae9a45e4b04c.png

when i brought up how the severity varies quite a bit, he told me the following:

https://i.gyazo.com/496fac24d032a2b10dbb6b5463ccb5fc.png

he also confirmed the loss of sense of smell

https://i.gyazo.com/be5ebe56490686335bbdaae97a488891.png

Two hospital employees at one of the sites I frequent tested +COVID last Wed. Friday evening intubated. The numbers you're seeing on television don't match the reality of what's really happening on the ground.

[Chris]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1244701069608996864?s=19

oops!

[baseline bum]

Two hospital employees at one of the sites I frequent tested +COVID last Wed. Friday evening intubated. The numbers you're seeing on television don't match the reality of what's really happening on the ground.

What part of Texas are you in? And how bad is it looking right this moment?

[MannyIsGod]

Pelosi shouldn't have done that if she'd been part of the briefings which I believe all congress were.

Doesn't make Trump's failure any better, honestly.

There's a lot of blame to pass around, but no one in this country gets more than Trump. No one.

[ChumpDumper]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1244701069608996864?s=19

oops!

1244453054822350853

[Chris]

*ding*

Trump is a failure.

This thread isn't about Trump.

Your *ding* attempt is a failure.

lol

[Chris]

1244453054822350853

lol Rick Wilson

lol thedailybeast.com

[ChumpDumper]

This thread isn't about Pelosi.:lmao

[SnakeBoy]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1244701069608996864?s=19

oops!

Haha I actually was watching that segment and was like wtf because I had seen that footage from Italy already.

[ChumpDumper]

lol Rick Wilson

lol thedailybeast.comNailed you tbh.


Why are you trying to defend Trump's abject failure?

[hater]

Welp, at least we can learn from what the Asian and European countries do so we don't commit the same mistakes.

:lmao

[Thread]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1244685918809788417?s=19

Tell it, Chris.

Testify!!!

Chris

[weebo]

What part of Texas are you in? And how bad is it looking right this moment?

Central and parts of South Texas. Some areas are getting hit harder than others. Some city leaders don't want the real numbers to come out and what I've gathered so far is that CV has been floating around since early Jan. Oddly enough the first cases I was referenced to was in the south.

[Thread]

Media ain't supposed to be in the hospitals with cameras,,,it's against law, but, they're trying to establish a beach head so they can break the law without consequence.

[Chris]

Tell it, Chris.

Testify!!!

Chris

:tu

[SnakeBoy]

Central and parts of South Texas. Some areas are getting hit harder than others. Some city leaders don't want the real numbers to come out and what I've gathered so far is that CV has been floating around since early Jan. Oddly enough the first cases I was referenced to was in the south.

I also think it's been floating around SA for awhile but as of late last week main methodist only had 1 or 2 people (forget which) intubated so I'm not sure what to think now.

[baseline bum]

Central and parts of South Texas. Some areas are getting hit harder than others. Some city leaders don't want the real numbers to come out and what I've gathered so far is that CV has been floating around since early Jan. Oddly enough the first cases I was referenced to was in the south.

Thanks for the info.

[baseline bum]

I also think it's been floating around SA for awhile but as of late last week main methodist only had 1 or 2 people (forget which) intubated so I'm not sure what to think now.

Guess we'll never really know since we aren't going to have heavily deployed antibody testing any time soon.

[Thread]

I also think it's been floating around SA for awhile but as of late last week main methodist only had 1 or 2 people (forget which) intubated so I'm not sure what to think now.


Thanks for the info.

Snake & bum sittin' in a tree...

[picnroll]

I also think it's been floating around SA for awhile but as of late last week main methodist only had 1 or 2 people (forget which) intubated so I'm not sure what to think now.

https://www.sanantonio.gov/Health/News/Alerts/CoronaVirus

[SnakeBoy]

https://www.sanantonio.gov/Health/News/Alerts/CoronaVirus

That's just confirmed cases. I can tell you for a fact that suspicious cases over the last couple of weeks have not been approved for testing by San Antonio Health Department and CDC even when physicians personally called them for approval. Denied.

Yet main Methodist is not busy so it's puzzling.

[phxspurfan]

In case anyone missed it, this Saturday, CA governor announced no mortgage payments for 90 days for CA residents with mortgages from the largest banks:

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/03/25/governor-gavin-newsom-announces-major-financial-relief-package-90-day-mortgage-payment-relief-during-covid-19-crisis/

[picnroll]

That's just confirmed cases. I can tell you for a fact that suspicious cases over the last couple of weeks have not been approved for testing by San Antonio Health Department and CDC even when physicians personally called them for approval. Denied.

Yet main Methodist is not busy so it's puzzling.
Finally testing is going to ramp way up, or at least the capability.

Hospitalizations and deaths I think are the important data points and impressive that that’s being reported imo.

[SnakeBoy]

Finally testing is going to ramp way up, or at least the capability.

Yeah it gets better daily.

I still wonder about the different strains though. NY got their outbreak from Italy and they are exploding just like Italy.

[phxspurfan]

Yeah it gets better daily.

I still wonder about the different strains though. NY got their outbreak from Italy and they are exploding just like Italy.

So they have the more deadly strain? I think the Asian areas (SF/LA/Seattle) probably got it mostly from China/Wuhan, which may be the more contagious/less deadly strain

[Chris]

https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1244715445116112896?s=19

[ChumpDumper]

https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1244715445116112896?s=19Yep, Pelosi told her it was a miracle drug.

Trump is a failure.

[Trill Clinton]

1244373578507845632

[ChumpDumper]

1244373578507845632:lmao

Why are people still clinging to Trump?

[picnroll]

So they have the more deadly strain? I think the Asian areas (SF/LA/Seattle) probably got it mostly from China/Wuhan, which may be the more contagious/less deadly strain

My little area of interest Vail/Beaver Creek was seeded from Italy. As of yesterday they had 187 cases tested by standard criteria of being symptomatic and 2 deaths. Granted very small sample.

[spurraider21]

:lmao

Why are people still clinging to Trump?
they have no choice

its a cult

[ChumpDumper]

they have no choice

its a cultWhat a stupid orange hill to literally die on.

[spurraider21]

What a stupid orange hill to literally die on.
yeah. they have equated trump with conservatism, so betraying trump is akin to betraying their belief system and ideology. it's pretty wild

[ChumpDumper]

FFS
1244712946225340417

[midnightpulp]

Some bright spots:

1244729235610058753

For the Texans. Per Covidtracking, they had their biggest amount of test results in a day, and the positive rate was only about 3.5 percent.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/texas/

[Thread]

FFS
1244712946225340417

They're also still in the playgrounds playing b-ball.

"And if they don't stop playing basketball I'm going to..."

Gov. Cuomo.

[SnakeBoy]

https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1244715445116112896?s=19

It wasn't fish tank cleaner. It was chloroquine phosphate, one of the promising drugs being studied. They took 5 grams instead of 300mg. A lethal dose of the right drug.

Still pure stupidity on many levels, especially since they weren't even sick, but it's annoying to see it called a fish tank cleaner.

[midnightpulp]

It wasn't fish tank cleaner. It was chloroquine phosphate, one of the promising drugs being studied. They took 5 grams instead of 300mg. A lethal dose of the right drug.

Still pure stupidity on many levels, especially since they weren't even sick, but it's annoying to see it called a fish tank cleaner.

Facts are irrelevant at a time like this.

[Trill Clinton]

1244493355540611073

Idiots

[Reck]

FFS
1244712946225340417

NY was fucked long before this anyways. Kind of akin to someone getting the AIDS and then fucking another AIDS riddled person. If you have it, you have it. Either you recover or you die.

:lol

[Thread]

1244493355540611073

Idiots

Great find, TC.

You're feeling fine, fellow? I saw your post over on the other Board and was keeping you in my thoughts.

[ChumpDumper]

NY was fucked long before this anyways. Kind of akin to someone getting the AIDS and then fucking another AIDS riddled person. If you have it, you have it. Either you recover or you die.

:lolRight, no one is getting the point to hold off infection to improve everyone's chances.

It's the people 20-40 here that are fucking things up for everyone else.

[ChumpDumper]

1244493355540611073

Idiotslol white people

[SnakeBoy]

For the Texans. Per Covidtracking, they had their biggest amount of test results in a day, and the positive rate was only about 3.5 percent.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/texas/

8%

[Trill Clinton]

Great find, TC.

You're feeling fine, fellow? I saw your post over on the other Board and was keeping you in my thoughts.

I'm feeling much better fam. Appreciate it.

[midnightpulp]

8%

I was referring to their one day case positive rate (335/9800). What you want to see is day-over-day declines in case count and/or positive rate, which hopefully portends a decline in spread.

[SnakeBoy]

I was referring to their one day case positive rate (335/9800). What you want to see is day-over-day declines in case count and/or positive rate, which hopefully portends a decline in spread.

Oh my bad, I didn't catch that's a cumulative number on your link.

[picnroll]

NY Gov. Cuomo: Playing politics like Trump during the coronavirus crisis is 'anti-American'

On Sunday, among other things, Trump accused New York hospitals of hoarding ventilators and other medical equipment.

"I'm not going to engage in politics, not because I'm unwilling to tangle, but because I think it's inappropriate, and I think it's counter-productive, and I think it's anti-American," Cuomo said when asked about Trump's comments.

"Forget the politics," Cuomo said. "We have a national crisis. We are at war. There is no politics. There is red, white, and blue."

https://www.businessinsider.com/cuomo-playing-politics-like-trump-amid-coronavirus-is-anti-american-2020-3

Damn this Cuomo is a helluva politician. Wish he were running against Trump. Think he’d kick Trash’s enormous ass seven ways to Sunday

[RandomGuy]

what state [did Donald Trump win by 0.2%]?

Technically there are three of them, but I was referring to Michigan.

Ask yourself, what the minimum number of voters that it would have taken to swing the outcome of 2016 from Trump to Hillary, and the answer is 38000. That is his "huge" electoral college victory.

[Reck]

NY Gov. Cuomo: Playing politics like Trump during the coronavirus crisis is 'anti-American'

On Sunday, among other things, Trump accused New York hospitals of hoarding ventilators and other medical equipment.

"I'm not going to engage in politics, not because I'm unwilling to tangle, but because I think it's inappropriate, and I think it's counter-productive, and I think it's anti-American," Cuomo said when asked about Trump's comments.

"Forget the politics," Cuomo said. "We have a national crisis. We are at war. There is no politics. There is red, white, and blue."

https://www.businessinsider.com/cuomo-playing-politics-like-trump-amid-coronavirus-is-anti-american-2020-3

Damn this Cuomo is a helluva politician. Wish he were running against Trump. Think he’d kick Trash’s enormous ass seven ways to Sunday

So this is why most politicians that run (and successfully so) for president are mostly governors. Good pro tip for people with those types of aspirations.

[RandomGuy]

1244373578507845632

Dude went from "We gonna have zero cases, I'm great" to "We are only going to lose 200,000 dead, I'm great" awfully fast.

[Winehole23]

lol white peopleI've heard 78209 is the zip code with the most infections in SA so far

[RandomGuy]

Oh my bad, I didn't catch that's a cumulative number on your link.

35,000 tests total.. .for a state of 28,000,000.

if you look at the john hopkins maps, there are tons of counties with one or two positive results... and counties with none at all. I am guessing it is a bit more widespread than Texas' current numbers suggest.

[Thread]

I've heard 78209 is the zip code with the most infections in SA so far

That is one sweet app you got in SA.

We ain't got that in Arizona. Christ, if I knew where the hot zip's were I'd rest a lot easier. A huge difference maker.

[ChumpDumper]

I've heard 78209 is the zip code with the most infections in SA so far

Makes sense. They probably travel the most then spend their time moving around their area that has a fair amount of density.

[Winehole23]

35,000 tests total.. .for a state of 28,000,000.

if you look at the john hopkins maps, there are tons of counties with one or two positive results... and counties with none at all. I am guessing it is a bit more widespread than Texas' current numbers suggest.MP's main COVID-19 schtick is to tease good news and turned corners from one day case counts or sparse testing outcomes.

[DarrinS]

I've heard 78209 is the zip code with the most infections in SA so far

Close to the airport

[FkLA]

Makes sense. They probably travel the most then spend their time moving around their area that has a fair amount of density.

That and the more affluent you are the more likely you are to receive a test.

[midnightpulp]

midnightpulp:

this guy sounds kinda like you.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-contrarian-coronavirus-theory-that-informed-the-trump-administration

Yeah, I don't think he sounds like me at all:


In it, he questioned the World Health Organization’s decision to declare the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, said that “public officials have gone overboard,” and suggested that about five hundred people would die from COVID-19 in the U.S. Epstein later updated his estimate to five thousand, saying that the previous number had been an error.

Never once even insinuated the bolded.

[DarrinS]

Close to the airport

Quarry Market, too

[vy65]

Yeah, I don't think he sounds like me at all:

Never once even insinuated the bolded.

WH's schtick is to doomsay while throwing out patently false or overly exaggerated to the point of being false info.

[Winehole23]

WH's schtick is to doomsay while throwing out patently false or overly exaggareted to the point of false info.Not sure what you're bent out of shape about or why you think I"m a doomsayer. I don't generally do predictions.

[RandomGuy]

MP's main COVID-19 schtick is to tease good news and turned corners from one day case counts or sparse testing outcomes.

He will be eventually right, though. Eventually.

[Blake]

Close to the airport

Eh, 09 is old people with money. Might be the zip code that takes the most cruises in SA

[MannyIsGod]

There's good news emerging from NYC right now. It does appear that the rate is slowing.

A lot of bad news in other places, but those are behind NYC so it'll get worse there before it gets better. Still, NYC slowing down is the best news we've had in this whole shit show. Embrace it.

[midnightpulp]

Not sure what you're bent out of shape about or why you think I"m a doomsayer. I don't generally do predictions.

Because ever since I said I don't agree with the Imperial Model (omg 60 million/3 million dead!) while posting counterarguments to that model from other leading experts, you've been on me like a fly on shit. Then I call out the media for their weak interpretation of the facts (just raw numbers and a focus on NY or Italy. No further investigation into the variables), and once again, fly on shit.

[ChumpDumper]

There's good news emerging from NYC right now. It does appear that the rate is slowing.

A lot of bad news in other places, but those are behind NYC so it'll get worse there before it gets better. Still, NYC slowing down is the best news we've had in this whole shit show. Embrace it.That's really good news if it holds up.

[Chris]

lol white people

lol racist

[Thread]

Because ever since I said I don't agree with the Imperial Model (omg 60 million/3 million dead!) while posting counterarguments to that model from other leading experts, you've been on me like a fly on shit. Then I call out the media for their weak interpretation of the facts (just raw numbers and a focus on NY or Italy. No further investigation into the variables), and once again, fly on shit.

The old "fly on shit.":lmao

The old Midst!

[MannyIsGod]

Because ever since I said I don't agree with the Imperial Model (omg 60 million/3 million dead!) while posting counterarguments to that model from other leading experts, you've been on me like a fly on shit. Then I call out the media for their weak interpretation of the facts (just raw numbers and a focus on NY or Italy. No further investigation into the variables), and once again, fly on shit.

You have zero clue whether the imperial model is right or wrong my dude. You disagreeing with it is like me telling aerospace engineers that their design sucks or telling Chip England that his method of teaching how to shoot sucks. You disagree with the top line estimates in that model because you don't want to believe them. That's not disagreement of substance.

We'll never know if those estimates of that model were right because we actually did something and those were estimates for not doing anything, but that model was in large part what got people motivated to actually do shit. Why? Because the people who are experts agree with it.

[ChumpDumper]

lol racistHow is that racist, Qhris?

[midnightpulp]

MP's main COVID-19 schtick is to tease good news and turned corners from one day case counts or sparse testing outcomes.

That's what many "experts" are doing. Like here:

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1244729235610058753

[Reck]

1244748569229352961

God bless the people who hang on Trump's every word. They'll gonna need it.

[Reck]

There's good news emerging from NYC right now. It does appear that the rate is slowing.

A lot of bad news in other places, but those are behind NYC so it'll get worse there before it gets better. Still, NYC slowing down is the best news we've had in this whole shit show. Embrace it.

It doesn't feel that way but going forward we should start seeing a leveling off period. Death has increased by nearly 300 from yesterday.

These are from old cases and people who have been on ventilators for at least a week though.

[spurraider21]

It doesn't feel that way but going forward we should start seeing a leveling off period. Death has increased by nearly 300 from yesterday.

These are from old cases and people who have been on ventilators for at least a week though.
sundays tend to have underreporting. last sunday they said 0 deaths and ducks posted about it all day monday. there were a little over 500 reported on saturday, its a safe bet sunday was also in the 500's, considering we are seeing that today as well

on top of it, thats just for confirmed cases. we are still way behind on testing so the actual figures (and actual growth) are still fuzzy

[boutons_deux]

There's good news emerging from NYC right now. It does appear that the rate is slowing.

A lot of bad news in other places, but those are behind NYC so it'll get worse there before it gets better. Still, NYC slowing down is the best news we've had in this whole shit show. Embrace it.

100s, 1000s? of New Yorkers turned out in a crowd to watch the USNS Comfort dock.

I wonder if Trash told the Navy not to admit Puerto Ricans, just throw paper towels at them?

When USNS hospital ship visited PR in '17, allowed only 6 PRs / day onto the ship

[MannyIsGod]

That's what many "experts" are doing. Like here:

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1244729235610058753

He is NOT doing that.

1244693662509883393

You're taking one tweet with one day of data on a graph. But he's looking at overall trends with multiple days of data to make his conclusions. He's also referencing others in his field who are doing the same. Look at his time line.

This is why I keep telling you that you can't pull one piece of info out of context!

[MannyIsGod]

It doesn't feel that way but going forward we should start seeing a leveling off period. Death has increased by nearly 300 from yesterday.

These are from old cases and people who have been on ventilators for at least a week though.

There's a longer lag time for deaths and icu cases so those will peak after the initial infections do. I'm not even sure we're at a peak for the infections, but the rate is slowing over a few days. Before you can walk you have to crawl and this is crawling.

[baseline bum]

100s, 1000s? of New Yorkers turned out in a crowd to watch the USNS Comfort dock.

I wonder if Trash told the Navy not to admit Puerto Ricans, just throw paper towels at them?

When USNS hospital ship visited PR in '17, allowed only 6 PRs / day onto the ship

Um, we're all Puerto Ricans right now.

[midnightpulp]

You have zero clue whether the imperial model is right or wrong my dude. You disagreeing with it is like me telling aerospace engineers that their design sucks or telling Chip England that his method of teaching how to shoot sucks. You disagree with the top line estimates in that model because you don't want to believe them. That's not disagreement of substance.

We'll never know if those estimates of that model were right because we actually did something and those were estimates for not doing anything, but that model was in large part what got people motivated to actually do shit. Why? Because the people who are experts agree with it.

Yeah, and it's been shown that some aerospace engineers have shittier designs than others.

There's not a consensus expert opinion that model. If you want to argue from the "better safe than sorry" position, I would agree that marshalling out the scary numbers to get people to act was a good thing, but I'll never buy the 60/3 million dead scenario because that assumes a 4 percent mortality rate (from the Wuhan data). I find that figure highly unlikely because, even according to Ferguson and many experts themselves, the true number of mild/asymptomatic cases to severe cases is probably underestimated by quite a bit. We can crosscheck this idea with the Iceland study and an Italy study on top of that.


No one else decided to test every single member of the lockdown community. The results immediately showed that 3 percent of all those tested were positive. “We did not realize at the time this was a huge number but we immediately were able to see that the majority of those who were positive did not have any symptoms”, said Cristani.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/21/iceland-is-doing-science-50-of-people-with-covid-19-not-showing-symptoms-50-have-very-moderate-cold-symptoms/
http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200316-the-hard-lessons-of-italy-s-devastating-coronavirus-outbreak

I will flat out state I think the true CFR is below 1 percent (even if we let the virus run rampant), making the Imperial model implausible.

[Bynumite]

Called it.

[RandomGuy]

https://i1.wp.com/metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/comp-1585582154.png?quality=90&strip=all&zoom=1&resize=964%2C542&ssl=1


DID YOU SEE MY RATINGS?!!

[MannyIsGod]

lol, but no one cares what you flat out state because you're not an epidemiologist!

The guy you just referenced above on the subject, however:

1244760839527129088

See what I mean about you just cherry picking?

[boutons_deux]

Ford to build 50,000 ventilators in 100 days

plans to continue producing 30,000 per month after that

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/business/ford-ge-healthcare-ventilators/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/business/ford-ge-healthcare-ventilators/index.html)

[ElNono]

yeah. they have equated trump with conservatism, so betraying trump is akin to betraying their belief system and ideology. it's pretty wild

yeah, that's quite the leap... :lol

then again, if you can believe in ghosts, I guess there's no stretch that's too far.

[RandomGuy]

Um, we're all Puerto Ricans right now.

https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2017_40/2176586/171003-trump-paper-towel-ew-252p_520afcd79b8382eef65d0bb59cc7d777.fit-2000w.jpg

Let them have paper towels.

[RandomGuy]

lol, but no one cares what you flat out state because you're not an epidemiologist!

The guy you just referenced above on the subject, however:

1244760839527129088

See what I mean about you just cherry picking?

Ish. I am right on the cusp where the mortality rate becomes non-trivial. (50)

[Winehole23]

Because ever since I said I don't agree with the Imperial Model (omg 60 million/3 million dead!) while posting counterarguments to that model from other leading experts, you've been on me like a fly on shit. Then I call out the media for their weak interpretation of the facts (just raw numbers and a focus on NY or Italy. No further investigation into the variables), and once again, fly on shit.I think you're full of shit, true.

Looks like motivated reasoning to me. Cherry picking, shameless appeals to authority, pseudologic, hasty generalization, threadbare speculation and misrepresenting of source material (like Manny just pointed out).

You've got most of the classic symptoms.

[midnightpulp]

He is NOT doing that.

1244693662509883393

You're taking one tweet with one day of data on a graph. But he's looking at overall trends with multiple days of data to make his conclusions. He's also referencing others in his field who are doing the same. Look at his time line.

This is why I keep telling you that you can't pull one piece of info out of context!

Fair enough. I posted this figure a week ago:


NY: Current Covid-19 cases: 12,324, Tests performed: 45,000

Texas: 31,296, Covid-19: 559, Tests performed: 6500. Prorated case number if Texas tested 45000: 3879


Texas is at 35K total tests with 2800 confirmed. They seem to be on that prorated trajectory I estimated. This is over a week long trend. So still no reason to have a positive outlook for Texas (relative to what is happening in hard hit areas)? Your first issue with Texas looking comparatively good was that they weren't performing a useful number of daily tests. But they just performed 10K in a day, and the positive rate was encouraging. I mean the experts are allowed to estimate over 4 day trends, and this is a 7 day trend, so...

[phxspurfan]

sundays tend to have underreporting. last sunday they said 0 deaths and ducks posted about it all day monday. there were a little over 500 reported on saturday, its a safe bet sunday was also in the 500's, considering we are seeing that today as well

on top of it, thats just for confirmed cases. we are still way behind on testing so the actual figures (and actual growth) are still fuzzy

This. We're still due for a big jump once we start testing everybody, versus just the extremely ill.

[spurraider21]

This. We're still due for a big jump once we start testing everybody, versus just the extremely ill.
my bro in law came down with a fever and was denied a test (in Los Angeles) because he was told his symptoms werent problematic enough

[monosylab1k]

1244748569229352961

God bless the people who hang on Trump's every word. They'll gonna need it.

The problem is his dipshit supporters hear 38 million, but not the correction. Fox News sure as shit won’t say anything about it. So they just think he’s right about it and that he owned that libtard reporter.

[ChumpDumper]

1244748569229352961

God bless the people who hang on Trump's every word. They'll gonna need it."I know South Korea better than anybody," Trump said when responding to the question from PBS NewsHour's Yamiche Alcindor. "It's a very tight — do you know how many people are in Seoul? Do you know how big the city of Seoul is? 38 million people. That's bigger than anything we have."

:lol black lady is completely under his skin

[vy65]

Not sure what you're bent out of shape about or why you think I"m a doomsayer. I don't generally do predictions.

Not bent out of shape. I think you're a doomsayer because you're quick on the draw to discount attempts to see light at the tunnel, even if they come at the cost of being truthful. That's all.

[vy65]

There's good news emerging from NYC right now. It does appear that the rate is slowing.

A lot of bad news in other places, but those are behind NYC so it'll get worse there before it gets better. Still, NYC slowing down is the best news we've had in this whole shit show. Embrace it.

Link?

[vy65]

Because ever since I said I don't agree with the Imperial Model (omg 60 million/3 million dead!) while posting counterarguments to that model from other leading experts, you've been on me like a fly on shit. Then I call out the media for their weak interpretation of the facts (just raw numbers and a focus on NY or Italy. No further investigation into the variables), and once again, fly on shit.

Never figured WH would be coquettish, but here we are ...

[Mark Celibate]

called it

2nd wave could be more brutal than 1st. Israeli intelligence seems to concurr

fears that giving into the economic arguments in response to a temporary ebbing of coronavirus infection would bring forth a redoubled outbreak in April going into May. This second wave could be even more ferocious than the first. Signs of this second covid-19 assault moving in are visible in China, Taiwan and Singapore, who relaxed restrictions after successful efforts to contain the spread of the plague

H Hanging over these debates is the fact that too little is known about the nature of coronavirus and its responses. The search for a remedy or vaccine may take years before one is certified for use and manufactured in sufficient quantity to beat a plague that knows no borders.

https://www.debka.com/fears-of-redoubled-coronavirus-assault-in-april-no-remedy-yet-in-sight/

where are you finding evidence of a "more ferocious" outbreak? From everything I've read, it's a small group who tested negative, released, and were tested positive again when being checked for other health issues. But most of them have been asymptomatic, not getting worse. It's possible that the "negative" test was an error. From the below article, it says testing in China is only accurate 30-50% of the time. So it shouldn't be a shock to see a few positive, negative, then positive again tests

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

[baseline bum]

"I know South Korea better than anybody," Trump said when responding to the question from PBS NewsHour's Yamiche Alcindor. "It's a very tight — do you know how many people are in Seoul? Do you know how big the city of Seoul is? 38 million people. That's bigger than anything we have."

:lol black lady is completely under his skin

Seoul, Tokyo, same shit amirite

[ElNono]

Called it.

:lol

[Winehole23]

The problem is his dipshit supporters hear 38 million, but not the correction. Fox News sure as shit won’t say anything about it. So they just think he’s right about it and that he owned that libtard reporter.
Trump has trouble reading

1244753805834506240

[ChumpDumper]

Seoul, Tokyo, same shit amiriteJust the flex attempt on mean black lady itself is hilarious. The fact it failed miserably is banderas.gif.

[Pelicans78]

my bro in law came down with a fever and was denied a test (in Los Angeles) because he was told his symptoms werent problematic enough

That’s nationwide. They’re only testing if you’re having fever, chills, AND shortness of breath due to protocol from the CDC unless you’re a celebrity.

[Pelicans78]

Called it guys. Shit’s about to happen.

[baseline bum]

Trump has trouble reading

1244753805834506240

He was thinking of Tokyo's metro population, which is 38 million.

[ChumpDumper]

Called it guys. Shit’s about to happen.?

[DarrinS]

Never figured WH would be coquettish, but here we are ...


Yeah, I had to Google it. Yeah, I laughed. :lol

[Pelicans78]

If it wasn’t for the healthcare team we have in this country with the nurses and doctors, our death rate would be a lot higher. Only Germany has a lower death rate and that’s because they don’t have incompetent organizations like the CDC or FDA limiting the amount of testing being done.

[midnightpulp]

lol, but no one cares what you flat out state because you're not an epidemiologist!

The guy you just referenced above on the subject, however:

1244760839527129088

See what I mean about you just cherry picking?

In your field, is every "climate scientist" of equal competence and objectivity? I doubt that.

I'll just ask you a simple question: Why do you believe the 4 mortality rate (that is what the Imperial study assumes 60 million/3 million) when it has been clearly stated time after time after time by pretty much EVERY leading expert that the amount of mild and asymptomatic cases that have gotten the virus and recovered could be underestimated by a factor or 5 or even 10.


This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).

-Leading Expert

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/



The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

-Leading Experts

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b


"Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,” said Guðnason. “The other half displays very moderate cold-like symptoms."

- Leading Experts

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland


In the U.S., it's likely that the case fatality rate from coronavirus will end up somewhere between 0.5% and 1%, once a broad cross-section of the population has been tested, Lawrence says.

- Leading Expert

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

[Winehole23]

He was thinking of Tokyo's metro population, which is 38 million.38m is Seoul's elevation, seems equally plausible Trump Googled Seoul, saw 38m and though that was a population figure. You could be right, though.

[Pelicans78]

?

Just copying Hater since it makes him feel better about himself.

[Winehole23]

Never figured WH would be coquettish, but here we are ...Already replied

[ChumpDumper]

If it wasn’t for the healthcare team we have in this country with the nurses and doctors, our death rate would be a lot higher. Only Germany has a lower death rate and that’s because they don’t have incompetent organizations like the CDC or FDA limiting the amount of testing being done.
New week, new talking points.

What are you saying is starting to happen?

[boutons_deux]

If it wasn’t for the healthcare team we have in this country with the nurses and doctors, our death rate would be a lot higher. Only Germany has a lower death rate and that’s because they don’t have incompetent organizations like the CDC or FDA limiting the amount of testing being done.

Germany is lagging FR and IT

1000s of USA doctors, nurses, grocery staff will get infected, maybe die for lack of PPE. Italy has gone full-body HAZMAT, USA is using scarves, bandanas, re-using infected masks

[Blake]

Trump has trouble reading

1244753805834506240

:lmao

[Chris]

How is that racist, Qhris?

lol oblivious racist

[Winehole23]

For the record, I hope social distancing is bending the curve. I just think it's too soon to tell what trajectory we're on. The USA is large, countermeasures are not uniform, and COVID-19 seems likely to come at us in successive waves until there's a vaccine.

[Nathan89]

https://twitter.com/davidharsanyi/status/1244703472160735233?s=20

I remember the narrative of these idiots supposedly "trusting" Trump so much they self medicated on fish cleaner. They didn't even have symptoms. Yeah, your bullshit narrative collapsed but I hope you had fun pushing it so you could blame Trump.

[spurraider21]

https://twitter.com/davidharsanyi/status/1244703472160735233?s=20

I remember the narrative of these idiots supposedly "trusting" Trump so much they self medicated on fish cleaner. They didn't even have symptoms. Yeah, your bullshit narrative collapsed but I hope you had fun pushing it so you could blame Trump.


It wasn't fish tank cleaner. It was chloroquine phosphate, one of the promising drugs being studied. They took 5 grams instead of 300mg. A lethal dose of the right drug.

Still pure stupidity on many levels, especially since they weren't even sick, but it's annoying to see it called a fish tank cleaner.

[ChumpDumper]

lol oblivious racistThe flag you're waving is white too.

[ChumpDumper]

https://twitter.com/davidharsanyi/status/1244703472160735233?s=20

I remember the narrative of these idiots supposedly "trusting" Trump so much they self medicated on fish cleaner. They didn't even have symptoms. Yeah, your bullshit narrative collapsed but I hope you had fun pushing it so you could blame Trump.:lol your narrative

[boutons_deux]

Some Trump supporters fear coronavirus lockdowns are undermining ‘America’s masculinity’

A common theme emerging from Trump’s evangelical base, such as Christian pastor Jonathan Shuttlesworth (https://deadstate.org/christian-pastor-churches-that-shut-down-due-to-coronavirus-are-a-bunch-of-pansies/), is that

people who practice social distancing are “sissies” and “pansies” who have been “neutered.”

this kind of rhetoric frames the

protective measures as a “threat not only to America’s rugged individualism but to masculinity.”

“It grew out of the backlash to the New Deal and the social safety net it created,

which conservatives viewed as
anti-American,
anti-capitalist, and
emasculating—

a challenge to what the historian Richard Hofstadter once called

‘the virile prerogatives of enterprise,'” :lol

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/some-trump-supporters-fear-coronavirus-lockdowns-are-undermining-americas-masculinity-history-professor/

====================

The Conservative Campaign Against Safety

How did we get to the point where ministers, the president, many Republican politicians, and a variety of media outlets are

calling for people to risk death to save the economy?

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/conservative-campaign-security/608986/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_term=2020-03-30T10%3A00%3A36&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_content=edit-promo&fbclid=IwAR3ppaZ3YhVUh61PKxchMj5Jom5dnExwF1pG60wkZ TEdTKXp-E0BBoOl4cY

[Will Hunting]

If it wasn’t for the healthcare team we have in this country with the nurses and doctors, our death rate would be a lot higher. Only Germany has a lower death rate and that’s because they don’t have incompetent organizations like the CDC or FDA limiting the amount of testing being done.
:lol yeah that’s it, Germany has less government involvement in healthcare than the US does.

[ElNono]

:lol yeah that’s it, Germany has less government involvement in healthcare than the US does.

:lol

[midnightpulp]

:lol China

1243992460839321600

[hater]

Brazil is fucked

infections are exploding and they have faster death rate than Italy since 1st death

there goes the theory that heat and humidity will slow this down. brazil has been 80-90 degrees for last few weeks

Bolsohitler fucked up hugely. no wonder Brazil military is consiering taking him off

[Pelicans78]

:lol yeah that’s it, Germany has less government involvement in healthcare than the US does.

If you knew about Germany’s healthcare system you would laugh at your own sentence. :rollin

[pgardn]

pgardn (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=19184) i've been talking to my friend from detroit again

he tested positive for covid-19 and it currently staying at home, though he says it didnt hit him hard and he's been asympomatic for 5 days.

he said he caught the plain flu back in december and his symptoms were worse then.

https://i.gyazo.com/737659652ae6cc53d90bae9a45e4b04c.png

when i brought up how the severity varies quite a bit, he told me the following:

https://i.gyazo.com/496fac24d032a2b10dbb6b5463ccb5fc.png

he also confirmed the loss of sense of smell

https://i.gyazo.com/be5ebe56490686335bbdaae97a488891.png

People on the front lines are getting hammered.
Overworked and seemingly getting exposed repeatedly is breaking preventative barriers it seems.

And their poor families...
This such an insidious virus. I know amazing seems the wrong word, but this virus is kicking our cocky butts.

[Pelicans78]

:lol

Apparently you don’t know about Germany’s healthcare system :rollin

[Chris]

The flag you're waving is white too.

lol oblivious racist declares victory

[Nathan89]

If it wasn’t for the healthcare team we have in this country with the nurses and doctors, our death rate would be a lot higher. Only Germany has a lower death rate and that’s because they don’t have incompetent organizations like the CDC or FDA limiting the amount of testing being done.


:lol yeah that’s it, Germany has less government involvement in healthcare than the US does.


:lol

https://twitter.com/notjessewalker/status/1243515761471229952


I hope everyone got a good laugh though.

[Thread]

People on the front lines are getting hammered.
Overworked and seemingly getting exposed repeatedly is breaking preventative barriers it seems.

And their poor families...
This such an insidious virus. I know amazing seems the wrong word, but this virus is kicking our cocky butts.

Time & a 1/2, double time, even the coveted, rarely spotted & always adamantly grudged (triple time) covers a lot of hammerin', peeg.

[Pelicans78]

:lol

Just because you grew up in a Junta doesn’t mean we want to have one here.

Still afraid to blame the CDC and FDA for the lack of teating? You know, two governmental organizations which you love so much. Too afraid to admit how they’re gonna be responsible for both thousands of Americans dying and also putting the economy in a recession since we had to lockdown the country due to early testing.

[pgardn]

What part of Texas are you in? And how bad is it looking right this moment?

From my wife’s perspective not bad.
My wife got pulled out of a l lab because the numbers of “regular” hospital numbers has gone way down as people are staying away. If it goes bad on us she could get pulled back in. This is in SA. No one in the lab system they know has it but direct contact with patients is not in her purview. Nurse and physician info will probably start coming in.

[Reck]

Brazil is fucked

infections are exploding and they have faster death rate than Italy since 1st death

there goes the theory that heat and humidity will slow this down. brazil has been 80-90 degrees for last few weeks

Bolsohitler fucked up hugely. no wonder Brazil military is consiering taking him off

The government will finally get their favelas problem resolved and they wont even have to risk their own corrupt cops to do it.

[hater]

Just because you grew up in a Junta doesn’t mean we want to have one here.

Still afraid to blame the CDC and FDA for the lack of teating? You know, two governmental organizations which you love so much. Too afraid to admit how they’re gonna be responsible for both thousands of Americans dying and also putting the economy in a recession since we had to lockdown the country due to early testing.

Germany has universal healthcare niga

USA doesnt and has millions of uninsured

you are comparing apples to oranges

you cannot even begin to compare CDC vs no CDC as the 2 systems are completely and utterly different

[ElNono]

If you knew about Germany’s healthcare system you would laugh at your own sentence. :rollin

- Does Germany have free public healthcare?
Yes, all Germans and legal residents of Germany are entitled to free “medically necessary” public healthcare, which is funded by social security contributions. However, citizens must still have either state or private health insurance, covering at least hospital and outpatient medical treatment and pregnancy.

- But, what exactly does the public healthcare cover?
It covers treatments and services, such as immunizations, prescriptions, and dental checks. This sort of national coverage helps keep average healthcare costs in Germany to a minimum and is one of the reasons the system has a positive reputation around the world.

- All salaried workers in Germany, whose gross monthly income is less than 5,213 EUR (5,800 USD) and whose annual income is less than 62,550 EUR (69,600 USD) as of 2020, must have public health insurance, also known as gesetzliche krankenversicherung (or GKV). You can also purchase additional insurance coverage from a private company. If you become eligible for private insurance, because, for example, you get a pay rise, you can change from public to private health insurance. However, you have to opt out of the statutory health insurance first—you cannot have both.

- If you start to earn more than 62,550 EUR (69,600 USD), you can continue to use the public health system if you want, as a voluntary user, but you will have to pay the maximum premiums.

- The percentage you will owe to the state-run healthcare system is taken out of your monthly pay. Germany’s healthcare contribution costs are 14.6 to 15.6%, half of which the worker pays, and half the employer. There may also be a small supplemental rate on top of this, at an average of 0.9%, which is paid solely by the employee. This supplement is a “contribution rate” charged by the state German health insurer.

- Applying for public healthcare insurance is relatively stress-free, as you simply need to register with the German authorities at your local town hall. Once you are registered, have a social security number, and are making your contributions, you will have access to the state-run healthcare.



Let me know what I missed... also do tell how that looks like limited government intervention... :lol

I'll wait.


Just because you grew up in a Junta doesn’t mean we want to have one here.

Still afraid to blame the CDC and FDA for the lack of teating? You know, two governmental organizations which you love so much. Too afraid to admit how they’re gonna be responsible for both thousands of Americans dying and also putting the economy in a recession since we had to lockdown the country due to early testing.

I did blame the CDC for the lack of testing. I blamed the entire administration in charge of the CDC and FDA at this point in time for it. Did you?

[boutons_deux]

:lol China

1243992460839321600

one plane of Chinese medical stuff already landed at NYC, another 22 flights scheduled.

[ElNono]

https://twitter.com/notjessewalker/status/1243515761471229952


I hope everyone got a good laugh though.

Oh look, they're testing a whole lot more than other countries! who would've thought that was a good idea?

[FkLA]

Trump has trouble reading

1244753805834506240

:lmao

[Pelicans78]

- Does Germany have free public healthcare?
Yes, all Germans and legal residents of Germany are entitled to free “medically necessary” public healthcare, which is funded by social security contributions. However, citizens must still have either state or private health insurance, covering at least hospital and outpatient medical treatment and pregnancy.

- But, what exactly does the public healthcare cover?
It covers treatments and services, such as immunizations, prescriptions, and dental checks. This sort of national coverage helps keep average healthcare costs in Germany to a minimum and is one of the reasons the system has a positive reputation around the world.

- All salaried workers in Germany, whose gross monthly income is less than 5,213 EUR (5,800 USD) and whose annual income is less than 62,550 EUR (69,600 USD) as of 2020, must have public health insurance, also known as gesetzliche krankenversicherung (or GKV). You can also purchase additional insurance coverage from a private company. If you become eligible for private insurance, because, for example, you get a pay rise, you can change from public to private health insurance. However, you have to opt out of the statutory health insurance first—you cannot have both.

- If you start to earn more than 62,550 EUR (69,600 USD), you can continue to use the public health system if you want, as a voluntary user, but you will have to pay the maximum premiums.

- The percentage you will owe to the state-run healthcare system is taken out of your monthly pay. Germany’s healthcare contribution costs are 14.6 to 15.6%, half of which the worker pays, and half the employer. There may also be a small supplemental rate on top of this, at an average of 0.9%, which is paid solely by the employee. This supplement is a “contribution rate” charged by the state German health insurer.

- Applying for public healthcare insurance is relatively stress-free, as you simply need to register with the German authorities at your local town hall. Once you are registered, have a social security number, and are making your contributions, you will have access to the state-run healthcare.



Let me know what I missed... also do tell how that looks like limited government intervention... :lol

I'll wait.



I did blame the CDC for the lack of testing. I blamed the entire administration in charge of the CDC and FDA at this point in time for it. Did you?

It's not limited government. That was my point. They don't have a dominant central program like the CDC dictating the testing. The states in Germany each are independent and don't have to answer to a federal authority minutiae. That's why they were so easily able to test early on compared to here where the CDC was dictating who could get testing across the country. I never mentioned once about limited government. I was mocking you for your medicare for all solution which isn't feasible in this country. The states are going to have to be heavily involved to ensure everyone get health insurance.

[midnightpulp]

one plane of Chinese medical stuff already landed at NYC, another 22 flights scheduled.

GG, New York. You had a good run.

[Will Hunting]

Oh look, they're testing a whole lot more than other countries! who would've thought that was a good idea?
:lol this is a classic Republican move

Step 1: Completely defund government agencies like the CDC so they’re incompetent and can’t do anything

Step 2: Wait for said agencies like the CDC to fuck up due to being underfunded and underresourced

Step 3: Rant and rave about how we need smaller government because the small underfunded government we have sucks

[hater]

china to the rescue :tu

god bless them

[Pelicans78]

Germany has universal healthcare niga

USA doesnt and has millions of uninsured

you are comparing apples to oranges

you cannot even begin to compare CDC vs no CDC as the 2 systems are completely and utterly different

Of course they do because the states put in a large amount of funding too and they have a private industry as well . They're not dumb enough to put the burden on the entire federal government just like some people here want to do.

USA has millions insured largely because of the defense spending. Germany doesn't have to worry about that.

[ElNono]

It's not limited government. That was my point. They don't have a dominant central program like the CDC dictating the testing. The states in Germany each are independent and don't have to answer to a federal authority minutiae. That's why they were so easily able to test early on compared to here where the CDC was dictating who could get testing across the country. I never mentioned once about limited government. I was mocking you for your medicare for all solution which isn't feasible in this country. The states are going to have to be heavily involved to ensure everyone get health insurance.

I actually bounced around here mixed systems too, like the one in Germany or Singapore(IIRC). I actually pointed out that the US already has a largely socialist healthcare system as it is in Medicare.

I was complaining that the CDC and US in general ditched the tests the WHO offered to develop their own and botched that too, and now we shouldn't be surprised we have a testing problem. So we're largely in agreement.

All that said, I do believe there's a role for the FDA and CDC when it comes to making sure we don't sell snake oil. That's where those institutions come from. But that's why during emergencies, you need leadership that understands and manages crisis to make exceptions, like the one done for NY for the malarian drugs.

[Thread]

Of course they do because the states put in a large amount of funding too and they have a private industry as well . They're not dumb enough to put the burden on the entire federal government just like some people here want to do.

USA has millions insured largely because of the defense spending. Germany doesn't have to worry about that.

...they lucked out having Hitler like that. Now their children don't have to go to the slaughter, but, our children do.

[pgardn]

Time & a 1/2, double time, even the coveted, rarely spotted & always adamantly grudged (triple time) covers a lot of hammerin', peeg.

There are plenty of Primary Care private practice physicians and nurses who are sitting on their hands right now in Texas. Many new nurses and lab personnel are standing down at home or going on reduced hours. There are a whole slew of Doctors NOT employed by hospitals. I wonder how many have/will volunteer on the front lines.

[ElNono]

:lol this is a classic Republican move

Step 1: Completely defund government agencies like the CDC so they’re incompetent and can’t do anything

Step 2: Wait for said agencies like the CDC to fuck up due to being underfunded and underresourced

Step 3: Rant and rave about how we need smaller government because the small underfunded government we have sucks

Lots of rotten parts here... oh look, we have a completely depleted and underfunded stockpile of health resources! who would've thought we would ever need them?

Now we count the bodies. And this goes for both blue and red here, zero foresight.

[Pelicans78]

I actually bounced around here mixed systems too, like the one in Germany or Singapore(IIRC). I actually pointed out that the US already has a largely socialist healthcare system as it is in Medicare.

I was complaining that the CDC and US in general ditched the tests the WHO offered to develop their own and botched that too, and now we shouldn't be surprised we have a testing problem. So we're largely in agreement.


All that said, I do believe there's a role for the FDA and CDC when it comes to making sure we don't sell snake oil. That's where those institutions come from. But that's why during emergencies, you need leadership that understands and manages crisis to make exceptions, like the one done for NY for the malarian drugs.

I agree that everyone should be insured whether its private or government based. The mixed system is the best solution for this country because our defense budget won't allow everyone to be covered by the government. Medicare and medicaid are already in place though medicaid is a shitty system only better than the VA which is horrendous.

The FDA and CDC do have a role, but they're so bloated and inefficient that things are never done quickly.

[Nathan89]

Oh look, they're testing a whole lot more than other countries! who would've thought that was a good idea?

Oh look, an irrelevant reply to the substance of the comment.

[boutons_deux]

And this goes for both blue and red here, zero foresight.

False equivalence.

Do you really think Hillary would have fucked up, destroyed the Exec as Trash has?

Even the "red" was running pandemic simulations until Sep? '19, found a lot of weaknesses, deficiencies, then Trash shut that down.

A couple months later the covid-19 pandemic lands in USA.

[pgardn]

He is NOT doing that.

1244693662509883393

You're taking one tweet with one day of data on a graph. But he's looking at overall trends with multiple days of data to make his conclusions. He's also referencing others in his field who are doing the same. Look at his time line.

This is why I keep telling you that you can't pull one piece of info out of context!

Honestly I am not as encouraged as he is looking at that.
I would like of couple more days of decreasing slopes for states that have been dealing with this for a longer period.

[Nathan89]

:lol this is a classic Republican move

Step 1: Completely defund government agencies like the CDC so they’re incompetent and can’t do anything

Step 2: Wait for said agencies like the CDC to fuck up due to being underfunded and underresourced

Step 3: Rant and rave about how we need smaller government because the small underfunded government we have sucks

So it's your position that the CDC botched their test because they lacked funding?

[Pelicans78]

False equivalence.

Do you really think Hillary would have fucked up, destroyed the Exec as Trash has?

Even the "red" was running pandemic simulations until Sep? '19, found a lot of weaknesses, deficiencies, then Trash shut that down.

A couple months later the covid-19 pandemic lands in USA.

She may have had no choice after sending 100,000 troops to Syria. The defense budget would have really inflated with neocon/nation builder Hillary trying to take out Assad

[ElNono]

Oh look, an irrelevant reply to the substance of the comment.

from the article you linked in your tweet and I was responding to:

"I believe that we are just testing much more than in other countries, and we are detecting our outbreak early," said Christian Drosten, director of the institute of virology at Berlin's Charité hospital.

If you didn't read the article that was included in the tweet you posted yourself, I can see how you think my comment was irrelevant.

[Pelicans78]

There are plenty of Primary Care private practice physicians and nurses who are sitting on their hands right now in Texas. Many new nurses and lab personnel are standing down at home or going on reduced hours. There are a whole slew of Doctors NOT employed by hospitals. I wonder how many have/will volunteer on the front lines.

Yeah alot of doctors nowadays are only doing a clinic full-time and not seeing hospital patients. But those doctors should be doing telemedicine with their patients. All the patients need is a smartphone. But there are doctors who do clinic/hospital/nursing homes and will manage to stay busier.

[ElNono]

False equivalence.

Do you really think Hillary would have fucked up, destroyed the Exec as Trash has?

Even the "red" was running pandemic simulations until Sep? '19, found a lot of weaknesses, deficiencies, then Trash shut that down.

A couple months later the covid-19 pandemic lands in USA.

We have underfunded and unequipped state ventilator stockpiles in blue states also, that's what i was referring to.

[ElNono]

I agree that everyone should be insured whether its private or government based. The mixed system is the best solution for this country because our defense budget won't allow everyone to be covered by the government. Medicare and medicaid are already in place though medicaid is a shitty system only better than the VA which is horrendous.

The FDA and CDC do have a role, but they're so bloated and inefficient that things are never done quickly.

I floated a mixed system where government takes care of "basic care" and you have to have catastrophic. But then the argument flew right away into what government would consider "basic care", etc.

Frankly, another thing Germany does is price control on medications and procedures, which I doubt would survive here.

[MannyIsGod]

Honestly I am not as encouraged as he is looking at that.
I would like of couple more days of decreasing slopes for states that have been dealing with this for a longer period.

I'm hopeful. There were some other tweets I saw talking about other indicators - mainly IFI and ER visits as good proxies showing a decline in rate. We'll see.

We should fully expect the rate to slow down around now. There have been measures in place for weeks. The question is if it slows down ENOUGH since our measures have been half assed.

[Nathan89]

from the article you linked in your tweet and I was responding to:

"I believe that we are just testing much more than in other countries, and we are detecting our outbreak early," said Christian Drosten, director of the institute of virology at Berlin's Charité hospital.

If you didn't read the article that was included in the tweet you posted yourself, I can see how you think my comment was irrelevant.

I read it. That's just not why I posted the article. I'll just leave it at that. I don't particularly want to overly engage with others as there seems to be a lot of that right now.

[Pelicans78]

I floated a mixed system where government takes care of "basic care" and you have to have catastrophic. But then the argument flew right away into what government would consider "basic care", etc.

Frankly, another thing Germany does is price control on medications and procedures, which I doubt would survive here.

Yeah I don't know what the solution is for costs of procedures and medications. There are a lot of cheap generic drugs for many conditions, but I think the government will have to create a large safety net for people not being able to afford private insurance and medications.

[ElNono]

The FDA and CDC do have a role, but they're so bloated and inefficient that things are never done quickly.

BTW, Germany does have an FDA, it actually has two, given that they're a Euro member: the European Medicines Agency, and the German Federal Institute for Drugs & Medical Devices.

You have to clear one or the other for your drugs to get approved for sale in Germany.

[DarrinS]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v1

[ElNono]

Yeah I don't know what the solution is for costs of procedures and medications. There are a lot of cheap generic drugs for many conditions, but I think the government will have to create a large safety net for people not being able to afford private insurance and medications.

AMNOG is fairly new in Germany (2011, IIRC), but has reduced prices significantly there. They had the same pricing problem we had...

[Pelicans78]

AMNOG is fairly new in Germany (2011, IIRC), but has reduced prices significantly there. They had the same pricing problem we had...

One of the issues that Boots mentioned was how one company can get a patent on a certain drug and be able to jack up prices for many years because they have a monopoly on that drug.

[Pelicans78]

Mortality rate is up to 1.92% where it was 1.20% one week ago. Don't see it decreasing anytime soon.

[ElNono]

One of the issues that Boots mentioned was how one company can get a patent on a certain drug and be able to jack up prices for many years because they have a monopoly on that drug.

yep, not to mention there's plenty of gaming of the patent system here. Like I said, probably not going to fly here, but that's the sort of conversations we have to have if we're talking about healthcare costs in the US.

[boutons_deux]

One of the issues that Boots mentioned was how one company can get a patent on a certain drug and be able to jack up prices for many years because they have a monopoly on that drug.

by dicking with a drug's formula that brings no additional benefit, BigPharma claims it should, and does, get another 17 years patent protection.

[TimDunkem]

Deaths passed 3000. 540 dead so far today.

[ChumpDumper]

https://twitter.com/notjessewalker/status/1243515761471229952


I hope everyone got a good laugh though.

Germany's 16 federal states make their own decisions on coronavirus testing because each of them is responsible for their own health care systems.

moar laughs

[hater]

Deaths passed 3000. 540 dead so far today.

and we are basically at the heavy rain bands phase of f the storm

when the hurricane strength gales start showing up shit will get real

and lets not even talk about the eye of the storm

[pgardn]

Yeah alot of doctors nowadays are only doing a clinic full-time and not seeing hospital patients. But those doctors should be doing telemedicine with their patients. All the patients need is a smartphone. But there are doctors who do clinic/hospital/nursing homes and will manage to stay busier.

Probably so.

But the older patients that might need a checkup or are feeling poorly with other problems are being told to stay put.
The waiting rooms for bigger PC practices cant have the same number of people waiting.
This means the ordinary patient may be missing blood work etc... cant do that over the phone. So primary care sucks right now as well. I imagine its the same for the doc in the boxes owned by larger private groups.

[Mark Celibate]

and we are basically at the heavy rain bands phase of f the storm

when the hurricane strength gales start showing up shit will get real

and lets not even talk about the eye of the storm

try not to get too excited tbh

[RandomGuy]

I read it. That's just not why I posted the article. I'll just leave it at that. I don't particularly want to overly engage with others as there seems to be a lot of that right now.

Even Fox "news" know that Trump is sounding like an idiot and they are semen shielding when he goes off the rails. They had to cut Trumps audio when he went off on a rant about ratings, to make him seem less like an idiot.

Skip ahead to about the 2 minute mark


https://youtu.be/dWIKBYYMc2M

:rollin

[Bynumite]

.




































































































































































































Called it.

[GAustex]

Even Fox "news" know that Trump is sounding like an idiot and they are semen shielding when he goes off the rails. They had to cut Trumps audio when he went off on a rant about ratings, to make him seem less like an idiot.

Skip ahead to about the 2 minute mark


https://youtu.be/dWIKBYYMc2M

:rollin
At the top of the hour the dude comes on and passes it off to the next show. Been that way every day.
Exaggerate some?

[RandomGuy]

If it wasn’t for the healthcare team we have in this country with the nurses and doctors, our death rate would be a lot higher. Only Germany has a lower death rate and that’s because they don’t have incompetent organizations like the CDC or FDA limiting the amount of testing being done.


:lol yeah that’s it, Germany has less government involvement in healthcare than the US does.

:lol Germans have done MORE government involvement in tracking cases.

[RandomGuy]

At the top of the hour the dude comes on and passes it off to the next show. Been that way every day.
Exaggerate some?

That isn't what happened here. They didn't cut away to the next show. They just specifically talked over his rant on the ratings. You can even see where the anchor was told to keep stretching as Trump went on about ratings.

[midnightpulp]

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

And thus the initial Imperial projection can be rendered to the dust bin.

[ducks]

https://scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/91097240_10158314649704529_2774811287127851008_n.j pg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_sid=8024bb&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_oc=AQmycdwYuuZ_ziIWjjAFr91c8rrfZYoBHA0tjUbKQCJ WYzIfjySzypeLzK8cBx8_hxaAPqz9fos3kb2xx_shDweJ&_nc_ht=scontent-lax3-2.xx&_nc_tp=14&oh=30f3625cd9af900fc0a8e30fdf175678&oe=5EA657BC


Over 390kdeaths by hiv and all on tv ads about Sex

[ElNono]

I think there's some cognitive dissonance on this whole Imperial projection stuff... this is something I read, from here:

https://politics.slashdot.org/story/20/03/30/0327217/what-happens-when-epidemiologists-are-undermined-by-politics

(https://politics.slashdot.org/story/20/03/30/0327217/what-happens-when-epidemiologists-are-undermined-by-politics)

Earlier this month Slashdot covered the Imperial College in London forecast of "what happens if the U.S. does absolutely nothing to combat COVID-19 (https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/19/0232245/what-happens-if-the-us-does-absolutely-nothing-to-combat-covid-19)," which predicted 2.2 million deaths just in the U.S. and another 510,000 in Great Britain. The paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) was co-written by Neil Ferguson, one of the world's leading epidemiologists, and "launched leaders in both countries into action," according to the Washington Post.

Earlier this month Ferguson posted on Twitter that Microsoft and GitHub are working to "document, refactor and extend (https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713)" the thousands of lines of C code written over 13 years ago to run pandemic simulations, "to allow others to use without the multiple days training it would currently require (and which we don't have time to give)."

But the Washington Post's national health correspondent and senior political reporter look at a new twist this week: [I]In recent days, a growing contingent of Trump supporters have pushed the narrative that health experts are part of a deep-state plot (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/coronavirus-modelers-factor-in-new-public-health-risk-accusations-their-work-is-a-hoax/ar-BB11NsU3) to hurt Trump's reelection efforts by damaging the economy and keeping the United States shut down as long as possible. Trump himself pushed this idea in the early days of the outbreak... After Ferguson gave new testimony to British officials Wednesday...Fox News host Laura Ingraham wrongly stated that in his testimony Ferguson's projection had been "corrected." The chyron on her show Thursday night stated, "Faulty models may be skewing COVID-19 data...."

But in fact, Ferguson had not revised his projections in his testimony, which he made clear in interviews and Twitter. His earlier study had made clear the estimate of 500,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States projected what could happen if both took absolutely no action against the coronavirus. The new estimate of 20,000 deaths in Britain was a projected result now that Britain had implemented strict restrictions, which this week came to include a full lockdown...

[O]ne factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models.


And I think it makes sense...

[midnightpulp]

https://scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/91097240_10158314649704529_2774811287127851008_n.j pg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_sid=8024bb&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_oc=AQmycdwYuuZ_ziIWjjAFr91c8rrfZYoBHA0tjUbKQCJ WYzIfjySzypeLzK8cBx8_hxaAPqz9fos3kb2xx_shDweJ&_nc_ht=scontent-lax3-2.xx&_nc_tp=14&oh=30f3625cd9af900fc0a8e30fdf175678&oe=5EA657BC

This virus is nastier than the flu, and the reason the total death count is well below the flu at this point is because of the massive effort of the entire world to social distance, stay-at-home, test and trace, lockdown, and so on. We don't do these things for the flu.

[ducks]

390k about hiv and they shove sex
Ads
Done our throats nothing about safe sex

[Bynumite]

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/29/09/called-it.gif

[GAustex]

That isn't what happened here. They didn't cut away to the next show. They just specifically talked over his rant on the ratings. You can even see where the anchor was told to keep stretching as Trump went on about ratings.
I like reading all the dirt you all throw around but really do not want to get in the middle of all this except to say each day I watch at the top of the hour the dude comes on to transition from one show to the next.
I disagree with your statement that it was on purpose but save ur breath cause my foray into this morass called the political forum is done except from afar.

[ducks]

Notice killing babies is highest on list

[ElNono]

390k about hiv and they shove sex
Ads
Done our throats nothing about safe sex

Not that you would know, but hiv is sexually transmitted.

[midnightpulp]

I think there's some cognitive dissonance on this whole Imperial projection stuff... this is something I read, from here:

https://politics.slashdot.org/story/20/03/30/0327217/what-happens-when-epidemiologists-are-undermined-by-politics

(https://politics.slashdot.org/story/20/03/30/0327217/what-happens-when-epidemiologists-are-undermined-by-politics)

Earlier this month Slashdot covered the Imperial College in London forecast of "what happens if the U.S. does absolutely nothing to combat COVID-19 (https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/19/0232245/what-happens-if-the-us-does-absolutely-nothing-to-combat-covid-19)," which predicted 2.2 million deaths just in the U.S. and another 510,000 in Great Britain. The paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) was co-written by Neil Ferguson, one of the world's leading epidemiologists, and "launched leaders in both countries into action," according to the Washington Post.

Earlier this month Ferguson posted on Twitter that Microsoft and GitHub are working to "document, refactor and extend (https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713)" the thousands of lines of C code written over 13 years ago to run pandemic simulations, "to allow others to use without the multiple days training it would currently require (and which we don't have time to give)."

But the Washington Post's national health correspondent and senior political reporter look at a new twist this week: [I]In recent days, a growing contingent of Trump supporters have pushed the narrative that health experts are part of a deep-state plot (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/coronavirus-modelers-factor-in-new-public-health-risk-accusations-their-work-is-a-hoax/ar-BB11NsU3) to hurt Trump's reelection efforts by damaging the economy and keeping the United States shut down as long as possible. Trump himself pushed this idea in the early days of the outbreak... After Ferguson gave new testimony to British officials Wednesday...Fox News host Laura Ingraham wrongly stated that in his testimony Ferguson's projection had been "corrected." The chyron on her show Thursday night stated, "Faulty models may be skewing COVID-19 data...."

But in fact, Ferguson had not revised his projections in his testimony, which he made clear in interviews and Twitter. His earlier study had made clear the estimate of 500,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States projected what could happen if both took absolutely no action against the coronavirus. The new estimate of 20,000 deaths in Britain was a projected result now that Britain had implemented strict restrictions, which this week came to include a full lockdown...

[O]ne factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models.


And I think it makes sense...

It's just basic math. The Imperial Model assumed a 3.4 percent mortality rate (2.2 million dead from 60 million infections). The Lancet paper I posted is the most thorough examination yet of what the true CFR might be, and they're estimating .66. So even if we were to do "nothing," it would result in about 400K, which is still really bad, but not the apocalyptic amount projected in the Imperial study. That initial projection, again, should be rendered to the dustbin. And I'm not saying this because "I'm an optimist" or playing "armchair epidemiologist." I'm echoing what the Lancet paper found. But yeah, my intuition was always that the 3.4 percent CFR was a very high estimate.

[midnightpulp]

^ and the horse's mouth was a co-author/sponsor of the Lancet paper:



Prof Neil M Ferguson, DPhil

[ElNono]

It's just basic math. The Imperial Model assumed a 3.4 percent mortality rate (2.2 million dead from 60 million infections). The Lancet paper I posted is the most thorough examination yet of what the true CFR might be, and they're estimating .66. So even if we were to do "nothing," it would result in about 400K, which is still really bad, but not the apocalyptic amount projected in the Imperial study. That initial projection, again, should be rendered to the dustbin. And I'm not saying this because "I'm an optimist" or playing "armchair epidemiologist." I'm echoing what the Lancet paper found. But yeah, my intuition was always that the 3.4 percent CFR was a very high estimate.

Well, there's a point there that the modeling software might be outdated at this point, and something is being done about it. Again, I don't see anything there to point out that there was a willful intent to mislead or anything like that.

[Pelicans78]

:lol Germans have done MORE government involvement in tracking cases.

No shiit because they weren’t bogged down by bureaucrats telling their providers who to test and who not to test. They were ahead of the game on testing and easier to track and quarantine.

[midnightpulp]

Well, there's a point there that the modeling software might be outdated at this point, and something is being done about it. Again, I don't see anything there to point out that there was a willful intent to mislead or anything like that.

Indeed. You can only work with the data you have (even if you intuitively know there's variables that will probably make that initial projection moot when they're discovered), but the media has pounded the number into our heads. And I've been brow beaten for not blindly accepting its projections while I was posting many contrary opinions from "experts" that the CFR is likely below 1 percent. If certain people here wonder why there's a "distrust of experts," that is why. There's this Ivory tower assumption that us little people can't use reason to puzzle together differing arguments and facts to arrive at a logical conclusion ourselves. I didn't come to my conclusions vis a vis the Imperial study out of Dinning-Krueger arrogance, but because I researched contrary expert point-of-view, and those arguments made a lot sense to me.

But certain posters kept telling me I just need to blindly trust the Imperial model because "I'm not an expert."

[ElNono]

Indeed. You can only work with the data you have (even if you intuitively know there's variables that will probably make that initial projection moot when they're discovered), but the media has pounded the number into our heads. And I've been brow beaten for not blindly accepting its projections while I was posting many contrary opinions from "experts" that the CFR is likely below 1 percent. If certain people here wonder why there's a "distrust of experts," that is why. There's this Ivory tower assumption that us little people can't use reason to puzzle together differing arguments and facts to arrive at a logical conclusion ourselves. I didn't come to my conclusions vis a vis the Imperial study out of Dinning-Krueger arrogance, but because I researched contrary expert point-of-view, and those arguments made a lot sense to me.

But certain posters kept telling me I just need to blindly trust the Imperial model because "I'm not an expert."

I think some people misunderstand models. A result from a model is a snapshot based on information at a given time. Better weighted information comes along all the time, and you adjust your model to take advantage of that, and have a better result.

Sometimes people think such changes in results are somehow contradictory, and thus the whole thing can be obviated, or that the initial result was wrong, but there's no such a thing. It's simply that situations evolve, information comes along that makes the model more robust and you get updated results.

So getting married with any one specific model or result is also nonsense. It's an ever evolving situation, and those models will give you some parameters to be able to take action, but they won't give you a silver bullet.

[RandomGuy]

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

And thus the initial Imperial projection can be rendered to the dust bin.


(edit) Went back an re-read it.

They used those six flights of people as the basis for their global estimate. Not a great data set.


Our estimate of an infection fatality ratio of 0·66% in China was informed by PCR testing of international Wuhan residents returning on repatriation flights.

The "infection fatality ratio" is pretty hard to pin down at this point. They did a fair job of it. Good enough for some math.

[RandomGuy]

Math time.

60% of the US population of 300,000,000 is 180,000,000.

180,000,000 *.0066 = 1,188,000

UK population:
70,488,000 * .68.0066 = 272,000

Assuming, of course, zero extra casualties from an overwhelmed health care system. This is what appears to have happened in Italy.

[DarrinS]

Good night. Hope you and your families stay safe.

Keep your fingers out of your eyes and nose.

[RandomGuy]

I think there's some cognitive dissonance on this whole Imperial projection stuff... this is something I read, from here:

https://politics.slashdot.org/story/20/03/30/0327217/what-happens-when-epidemiologists-are-undermined-by-politics

(https://politics.slashdot.org/story/20/03/30/0327217/what-happens-when-epidemiologists-are-undermined-by-politics)

Earlier this month Slashdot covered the Imperial College in London forecast of "what happens if the U.S. does absolutely nothing to combat COVID-19 (https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/19/0232245/what-happens-if-the-us-does-absolutely-nothing-to-combat-covid-19)," which predicted 2.2 million deaths just in the U.S. and another 510,000 in Great Britain. The paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) was co-written by Neil Ferguson, one of the world's leading epidemiologists, and "launched leaders in both countries into action," according to the Washington Post.

Earlier this month Ferguson posted on Twitter that Microsoft and GitHub are working to "document, refactor and extend (https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713)" the thousands of lines of C code written over 13 years ago to run pandemic simulations, "to allow others to use without the multiple days training it would currently require (and which we don't have time to give)."

But the Washington Post's national health correspondent and senior political reporter look at a new twist this week: [I]In recent days, a growing contingent of Trump supporters have pushed the narrative that health experts are part of a deep-state plot (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/coronavirus-modelers-factor-in-new-public-health-risk-accusations-their-work-is-a-hoax/ar-BB11NsU3) to hurt Trump's reelection efforts by damaging the economy and keeping the United States shut down as long as possible. Trump himself pushed this idea in the early days of the outbreak... After Ferguson gave new testimony to British officials Wednesday...Fox News host Laura Ingraham wrongly stated that in his testimony Ferguson's projection had been "corrected." The chyron on her show Thursday night stated, "Faulty models may be skewing COVID-19 data...."

But in fact, Ferguson had not revised his projections in his testimony, which he made clear in interviews and Twitter. His earlier study had made clear the estimate of 500,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States projected what could happen if both took absolutely no action against the coronavirus. The new estimate of 20,000 deaths in Britain was a projected result now that Britain had implemented strict restrictions, which this week came to include a full lockdown...

[O]ne factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models.


And I think it makes sense...

Looks like his model for only 20,000 deaths with everything we are doing is still too low over the next year. It will be ten times that if ONLY 60% of the population get it, which is about the normal penetration into the population of the flu.

[RandomGuy]

For the record, I hope social distancing is bending the curve. I just think it's too soon to tell what trajectory we're on. The USA is large, countermeasures are not uniform, and COVID-19 seems likely to come at us in successive waves until there's a vaccine.

It is going to come in waves. Heard someone estimate April 18th as the peak. That seems optimistic in the extreme.

[Thread]

A reset on the kill rate:::0.66%

(CNN)How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.

[RandomGuy]

https://twitter.com/davidharsanyi/status/1244703472160735233?s=20

I remember the narrative of these idiots supposedly "trusting" Trump so much they self medicated on fish cleaner. They didn't even have symptoms. Yeah, your bullshit narrative collapsed but I hope you had fun pushing it so you could blame Trump.


“I saw it sitting on the back shelf and thought, ‘Hey, isn’t that the stuff they’re talking about on TV?’ ” the wife, who was not named, told the network. “We were afraid of getting sick.”

Her words. Exactly.

No one was talking about this but Trump, trying to tout a "miracle" drug. Do you want to see all the Fox propaganda pieces on it?

"collapse of the narrative" my ass. :lol

[RandomGuy]

A reset on the kill rate:::0.66%

(CNN)How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.

Bear in mind that is the estimated "everybody who gets infected with it, detected or not" estimate.

Not the case rate, of people who express enough symptoms to warrant a test and/or hospitalization.

That is estimated to be about one or two percent, possibly more. Take the "cases" you see advertised at take about 1.5% of that. Seems to be pretty constant across all states, any time I look. It will probably be MUCH higher in Florida tho. Wait until it decimates a few retirement homes/communities. Ish. :(

[RandomGuy]

A reset on the kill rate:::0.66%

(CNN)How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.


... and the flu death rate is....?

[MannyIsGod]

It's just basic math. The Imperial Model assumed a 3.4 percent mortality rate (2.2 million dead from 60 million infections). The Lancet paper I posted is the most thorough examination yet of what the true CFR might be, and they're estimating .66. So even if we were to do "nothing," it would result in about 400K, which is still really bad, but not the apocalyptic amount projected in the Imperial study. That initial projection, again, should be rendered to the dustbin. And I'm not saying this because "I'm an optimist" or playing "armchair epidemiologist." I'm echoing what the Lancet paper found. But yeah, my intuition was always that the 3.4 percent CFR was a very high estimate.

Of course they assumed a higher rate dude. If we did nothing, the rate goes up because people die that have no access to basic care like vents. CFR is not a static measurement. We literally saw this in Italy.

[RandomGuy]

Of course they assumed a higher rate dude. If we did nothing, the rate goes up because people die that have no access to basic care like vents. CFR is not a static measurement. We literally saw this in Italy.

Eyup. Italy is the worst case scenario. Perfect storm of older population, and overwhelmed hospital system.

[FlAVaK]

Germany is lagging FR and IT

1000s of USA doctors, nurses, grocery staff will get infected, maybe die for lack of PPE. Italy has gone full-body HAZMAT, USA is using scarves, bandanas, re-using infected masks

The difference between Ger and It/Fra/Spa is organisation and crisis managment on the one hand, but also some kind of luck concerning the people that got hit by the virus (younger or older).

In the last days a retirement home at Wolfsburg got struck by multiple deaths. If that continues, death rate will go up here also...

[Reck]

Good night. Hope you and your families stay safe.

Keep your fingers out of your eyes and nose.

If that was a surefire killer I'd probably be dead by now.

Do you know how hard I've tried to mind not to touch my face and shit? It's impossible to remember not to do it. When I do I'm like shit I'm not supposed to do that.

best you can do is stay home honestly.

[DarrinS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZII3Cu_Uo4

[DMC]

Death rate of COVID-19


80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

[DMC]

If that was a surefire killer I'd probably be dead by now.

Do you know how hard I've tried to mind not to touch my face and shit? It's impossible to remember not to do it. When I do I'm like shit I'm not supposed to do that.

best you can do is stay home honestly.

Not touching the face is very difficult. Not touching your shit, that seems like an easier task but with no toilet paper, who knows?

[Reck]

Not touching the face is very difficult. Not touching your shit, that seems like an easier task but with no toilet paper, who knows?

:lol

[Chris]

o2O-9v3hENA

eerie shit tbh...

[ElNono]

Death rate of COVID-19


80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities


That's pretty bad, but also don't think it accounts for deaths related to COVID due to collapsed systems, etc

[hater]

Germany cases jump by about 4,000 in 24 hrs

so much for the great healthcare tbqh

they might shut it all down soon

[ChumpDumper]

Germany cases jump by about 4,000 in 24 hrs

so much for the great healthcare tbqh

they might shut it all down soonNew cases count there is down for the third straight day from a high of 6900+. Depending on the testing, that could be pretty good news for them.

[hater]

New cases count there is down for the third straight day from a high of 6900+. Depending on the testing, that could be pretty good news for them.

their daily cases have gone up and down before

they might have done less testing last couple days

their death rate has risen by 10x in the last week

they were 10 a day 7 days ago, now 100 a day

[ChumpDumper]

their daily cases have gone up and down before

they might have done less testing last couple days

their death rate has risen by 10x in the last week

they were 10 a day 7 days ago, now 100 a dayDeaths are a trailing stat.

Just have to wait and see.

[hater]

Deaths are a trailing stat.

Just have to wait and see.

sure but looks like regardless of your quality of healthcare and testing anything but a complete shutdown wont do

[ChumpDumper]

Looked at my county. No cases in my zip code yet. Hooray?

[Reck]

Once NY hits it’s apex in 2 weeks, we should see a drastic drop in cases/deaths.

Most of the cases and deaths are coming out of here. So unless there is another epicenter state with same cases, we should see a drop.

[ChumpDumper]

Once NY hits it’s apex in 2 weeks, we should see a drastic drop in cases/deaths.

Most of the cases and deaths are coming out of here. So unless there is another epicenter state with same cases, we should see a drop.Testing is so fucked who knows what's going to happen? Maybe not anything quite as bad as NYC but Florida, NOLA and Detroit look like they're going to suck.

[Trainwreck2100]

saying we're going to see a drastic drop in NY but when NY hits it's apex NOla will be on the rise, and who knows how many of them find their way into texas when shit hits the fan over there

[Winehole23]

Death rate of COVID-19


80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities
Link?

An infant *has* died.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/cook-county-infant-dies-from-coronavirus-first-in-us/2246475/

[CosmicCowboy]

Bexar county setting up 250 bed overflow at Freeman expo hall.

[CosmicCowboy]

I'm stocking up on Blue Bell before they confiscate their reefer trucks for morgues.

[RandomGuy]

Math time.

60% of the US population of 300,000,000 is 180,000,000.

180,000,000 *.0066 = 1,188,000

UK population:
70,488,000 * .68.0066 = 272,000

Assuming, of course, zero extra casualties from an overwhelmed health care system. This is what appears to have happened in Italy.

Extending the math:

.0066 death rate out of everybody infected including asymtomatic.

3000 dead, divided by .0066=484,848 infections.

it takes roughly seven to fourteen days to kill, so this is how many infections are implied ten days ago.

Doubles every 2.5 days, so multiply this by eight to get currently infected people:

7,757,568

We have tested and detected 168,000, or about 2% of current cases.

Seems like we need to be testing about ten to fifty times more than we are.

Edit:

Extending math further, it gives us an estimate of death toll in about ten days, which is the same factor of eight calculation.

24,000 will die in the next ten days, with quite a few of them being in New York City, given the current case pattern.

[RandomGuy]

I'm stocking up on Blue Bell before they confiscate their reefer trucks for morgues.

Eyup. Get in your ice skating too.

[slick'81]

Extending the math:

.0066 death rate out of everybody infected including asymtomatic.

3000 dead, divided by .0066=484,848 infections.

it takes roughly seven to fourteen days to kill, so this is how many infections are implied ten days ago.

Doubles every 2.5 days, so multiply this by eight to get currently infected people:

7,757,568

We have tested and detected 168,000, or about 2% of current cases.

Seems like we need to be testing about ten to fifty times more than we are.

Edit:

Extending math further, it gives us an estimate of death toll in about ten days, which is the same factor of eight calculation.

24,000 will die in the next ten days, with quite a few of them being in New York City, given the current case pattern.


How many will live rg?

[hater]

Link?

An infant *has* died.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/cook-county-infant-dies-from-coronavirus-first-in-us/2246475/

yup a baby in usa

multiple childred have died

a 12 yeqr old just died in belgium today

thise stats are old as fuck

[boutons_deux]

donating or selling?

Trump Is Shipping $100 Million In Medical Equipment Out Of The Country
shipping $100 million of “surgical and medical and hospital things” out of the country.

“We’re also sending things that we don’t need to other parts,”

Trump said during his daily coronavirus informercial-slash-rally.

“We’re going to be sending approximately $100 million worth of things, of surgical and medical and hospital things to Italy.”

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/03/30/trump-is-shipping-100-million-in-medical-equipment-out-of-the-country.html

Is there a public itemized list or is that a secret?

[boutons_deux]

because IL is blue? nah, he would never do that.

Illinois Asked Trump For More N95 Masks. He Sent Surgical Masks Instead.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker ripped the White House for its lackluster response as states like his combat the growing spread of coronavirus.

the state has purchased more than 5 million N95 masks and more than 5 million surgical masks, which will be arriving by the end of the week.

Pritzker said he had

asked the federal government to help Illinois :lol

by providing personal protective equipment (PPE) like N95 masks,

but that the White House instead sent 300,000 surgical masks.

“I can say with certainty that what they sent were not the N95 masks that were promised,

but were surgical masks, which were not what we asked for,”

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/illinois-trump-n95-masks_n_5e8265f9c5b62dd9f5d44ef7

[hater]

yup a baby in usa

multiple childred have died

a 12 yeqr old just died in belgium today

thise stats are old as fuck

I was right looks like those #s are at least a month old and all from china: worldmeters

[RandomGuy]

Death rate of COVID-19


80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities


Florida median age 42.2 years.

Half of Florida's population is older than that...

22,000,000 people.

Infect a total of 60% over the course of a year.

13,200,000

Assuming infection does not favor any demographic, i.e. infection hits all demographics in the same proportion as in the wider population:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/florida-population/#byAge

80+ =523,000 people*0.6*.148= 46,442
70-79=1059600 *0.6*.08=84,768
60-69=1525800*0.6*.036=54,928
50-59=1692000*0.6*.013=21,996

Figure remainder of population
17400000*.6*.02=209,000

Over the course of a year. 208,135 fatalities in the next 12 months for remainder of the population.
209,000+208135=417,135

per this data table.

predicted by lancet study:
22,000,000*.6*.0066 = 87,000

Assuming lancet study is accurate, this data table is not.

[RandomGuy]

How many will live rg?

99.34% of infected. 7,706,368

Number of people those 7,757,568 will infect, assuming they bring it down from 2.3 now to 1.4,=10,860,595

The two week period after those people get infected will see 71,000 die.

Assuming that is the peak, as some are estimating, you have roughly 160M more infections (assuming 60% of all americans get it in the next 12 months) to go before it runs its course, and it claims its final toll of 1.1M.

FWTW.

[Splits]

1244602911084154880

8-FWulau6Rg

[pgardn]

The CDC director finally talks

Tidbits:

Symptomatic People likely shedding lots of virus 2-3 days before symptoms show.
Asymptomatic peeps that remain so are shedding virus.

I was personally very interested in this type of incoming evidence. This part of the biology of the infectious cycle of the virus has been largely missing and understandably so.

This is very unwanted preliminary news.
Still hoping the weather and distancing/ isolation measures might spare some of the large areas that have not been ravaged yet. Also hoping a summer free of giant outbreaks in these areas allows for ramped up testing. Maybe we can avoid a fall and winter occurrence as bad as States who will be ravaged in the coming weeks (we will have an even better picture for NOrtheast and Northwest as to possible over all numbers)

Also If some states happen to avoid large outbreaks this might mean they are due. Vaccine is too late. Testing again is essential.

A few scattered takes for this morning since I had some time. I’ve just been following articles from others so thanks for putting stuff up.

[SnakeBoy]

The CDC director finally talks

Tidbits:

Symptomatic People likely shedding lots of virus 2-3 days before symptoms show.
Asymptomatic peeps that remain so are shedding virus.

I was personally very interested in this type of incoming evidence. This part of the biology of the infectious cycle of the virus has been largely missing and understandably so.

This is very unwanted preliminary news.
Still hoping the weather and distancing/ isolation measures might spare some of the large areas that have not been ravaged yet. Also hoping a summer free of giant outbreaks in these areas allows for ramped up testing. Maybe we can avoid a fall and winter occurrence as bad as States who will be ravaged in the coming weeks (we will have an even better picture for NOrtheast and Northwest as to possible over all numbers)

Also If some states happen to avoid large outbreaks this might mean they are due. Vaccine is too late. Testing again is essential.

A few scattered takes for this morning since I had some time. I’ve just been following articles from others so thanks for putting stuff up.

Me too. The other 4 human coronaviruses drop like a rock in May so yes hopefully this one does too.

Other hope is the therapies under study also prove effective. Namely the Plaquenil + Zithro combination.

Dr. Fauci discussed what a difference seasonality would make just yesterday. In his words "more than just lessons learned" because they would have so much more in place (testing, therapies, etc.) next season.

[Fat Brandon Bass]

Rise and shine spurstalk!

Remember :madrun:madrun:madrunTrumpman bad !!! :madrun:madrun:madrun

Who's ready for 16 more straight hours of posting about Trump? I see boutons has already beaten you guys to the punch. I challenge you guys this morning to be better men than you were yesterday....increase your obsession. Beat your personal record. Be men. Who is going to step up when the world needs them the most? Who will be the one to make the most angry Trump posts today? Step up men, seize the day...

[boutons_deux]

airborne vs droplet?

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/28/823292062/who-reviews-available-evidence-on-coronavirus-transmission-through-air

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823905477/who-official-defends-guidance-we-re-not-seeing-airborne-transmission

[pgardn]

airborne vs droplet?

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/28/823292062/who-reviews-available-evidence-on-coronavirus-transmission-through-air

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823905477/who-official-defends-guidance-we-re-not-seeing-airborne-transmission

And now that we know the sneaky nature of shedding the virus the above becomes super important. This is the next step in the sequence of understanding. (including more testing on how long it survives on different surfaces. Hands included.)

[hater]

Doctor who met with Putin tests positive

called it tbqh

Virus getting closer and closer to Vlad

[pgardn]

Rise and shine spurstalk!

Remember :madrun:madrun:madrunTrumpman bad !!! :madrun:madrun:madrun

Who's ready for 16 more straight hours of posting about Trump? I see boutons has already beaten you guys to the punch. I challenge you guys this morning to be better men than you were yesterday....increase your obsession. Beat your personal record. Be men. Who is going to step up when the world needs them the most? Who will be the one to make the most angry Trump posts today? Step up men, seize the day...

As long as he shuts up and let’s the experts advise im good.
Imagine if we could keep him off Twitter and not asking/praising the insight/work of random baseball players.
If you could curb his need for attention the goal is possible. One day, can he shut up for one day.

[boutons_deux]

How long coronavirus survives on surfaces - and what it means for handling money, food and more

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/this-is-how-long-coronavirus-lives-on-surfaces

============

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

CDC is supposedly considering guidance of masks for everybody, just not victims and health care.

[picnroll]

Rise and shine spurstalk!

Remember :madrun:madrun:madrunTrumpman bad !!! :madrun:madrun:madrun

Who's ready for 16 more straight hours of posting about Trump? I see boutons has already beaten you guys to the punch. I challenge you guys this morning to be better men than you were yesterday....increase your obsession. Beat your personal record. Be men. Who is going to step up when the world needs them the most? Who will be the one to make the most angry Trump posts today? Step up men, seize the day...

I’ll give it a try.

Who’s in for a go- fund-me campaign. Proceeds to go to the first reporter at a Trump infomercial/campaign presser to ask Trash why he keeps lying to the American people and why does he keep doing these campaign speeches in the guise of press conferences?

[RandomGuy]

Rise and shine spurstalk!

Remember :madrun:madrun:madrunTrumpman bad !!! :madrun:madrun:madrun

Who's ready for 16 more straight hours of posting about Trump? I see boutons has already beaten you guys to the punch. I challenge you guys this morning to be better men than you were yesterday....increase your obsession. Beat your personal record. Be men. Who is going to step up when the world needs them the most? Who will be the one to make the most angry Trump posts today? Step up men, seize the day...

No-take McGurk continues not to have a take.

[vy65]

Well, there's a point there that the modeling software might be outdated at this point, and something is being done about it. Again, I don't see anything there to point out that there was a willful intent to mislead or anything like that.

Kind of, but not really. The model itself - meaning the calculations run to reach a particular projection - may very well be fine. Validity of the assumptions that are put into the model, that is the problem. Correct inputs/variables/assumptions/etc... will lead to more accurate models while incorrect inputs/variables/assumptions won't. Garbage in, Garbage out: the model will only be as good as the stuff you put into it in the first place.

Mid's point is that the imperial model has a serious flaw in its CFR input. 0.66% vs. 3.4% is well over a 5x difference. That's a huge difference which can make a model utterly meaningless. If the CFR is closer to the .66 figure rather than the 3.4, then the Imperial Model had some garbage put in and its projections are themselves garbage. Again, inaccurate assumptions will give you inaccurate results.

[Trill Clinton]

1244787103281508352

[hater]

https://twitter.com/sumishanaidu/status/1244914056840052736?s=20